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Everything one needs to know about Brexit. Most questions are answered here during the last minute negotiations on December 14, 2020, in a desperate effort by both sides knowing that no one is going to budge. The effort now is to say look this is going to hurt both sides during a pandemic, the public is going to be angry with the politicians one more time, which will hurt all sides. Britain joined the European Union in 1973 with Ireland and Denmark.

Britain has left the EU legally and politically. It is in a transition period till Jan 1, 2021 by which time the remaining questions on trade, on economic relations and security need to be resolved. This covers $800 billion in trade between Britain and the EU. If nothing happens to settle these issues Britain after Jan. 1 will no longer be part of the EU single market or its customs union. 

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Tesla suffered from production issues in 2017 and CEO Musk was not his usual upbeat self.  In early 2018 Musk is back to his usual style predicting big things for Tesla. Just after his company Space Exploration Technologies sent a powerful rocket with a Tesla car into space,Musk predicted making one million vehicles a year in 2020. In 3 months he says a Tesla will cross the U.S. He says Tesla will now be able to make 5000 cars a week of the Model 3.

Another of his predictions is that he will revolutionize production systems and leap over existing car companies. Analysts asked Musk if the Toyota Production System had not already achieved that, Musk says "we don't think so." This report points to changing moods of Musk and periods when he feels high and low, and changing according to the unrelenting stress he finds himself in or indulges in.

 

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The U.S. trade dispute with China takes a new turn after tit for tat tariffs, with the U.S. president Trump claiming that China was interfering in the U.S. midterm elections. This plays into the narrative in China that the U.S. does not want to see China's ascent as a global power. President Trump and Trade Representative Lighthizer have singled out "Made In China 2025," China's plans for tech leadership as a serious issue for the U.S. President Trump made his claim in a speech at the United Nations, saying that he was "the first president ever to challenge China on trade."

Many of China's tariffs on U.S. exports are targeted at agricultural products such as soyabeans and corn in heavily pro-Trump states, and in rural areas where the Republican party has a significant base. 

 

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Negotiators for Climate Change talks meeting in Katowice, Poland helped develop a rule book to support efforts made for the Paris Accords. The U.S. joined the European Union, Canada and China in putting forward compromise language. 

The question of setting up a carbon market was put off for the future.

On the aid to developing countries to reduce emissions in their generation of power the commitment of $100 billion by 2020 from Article 9 of the Paris Accords was seen by some countries including the U.S. as too high. China does not contribute, and only the European Union with Germany doubling its contribution took the lead. That climate fund has so far raised $10 billion.

The U.S. point of view was that no country should sacrifice economic prosperity and energy security for environmental sustainabililty. Yet the U.S. has participating in developing the rule book for climate change efforts stemming from the Paris Accords.

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Russia's deputy prime minister Vladislav Surkov resigns in May 2013. Putin reprimanded Surkov for not implementing presidential orders and decrees. For about 13 years Surkov has guided policies for a tightly managed political system which he called "sovereign democracy." He was deputy chief of staff to Putin and Medvedev for the last decade, and headed the Kremlin Department of Domestic Politics. After street protests following the 2011 parliamentary elections, Surkov had second thoughts about this, and called the protestors "our best people." He was transferred to his current job as deputy prime minister at that time, and sidelined by Putin in Dec. 2011.

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Android founder Andy Rubin started Android in 2003, which struggled because of a lack of funding. Rubin had developed a phone called the Sidekick in an earlier venture, which had attracted the attention of Mr Page and Mr Brin. Google acquired Android, at the time just Rubin and a couple of employees, and started a secret project in 2005-2007. The project was to create a modern operating system for smartphones that would make it possible to have powerful internet applications. Google planned to give it free and make money on online ads that would come up on the phones. Microsoft made device makers pay fees for using its mobile operating system. By the middle of 2007 Rubin had 100 engineers working in the unit. By late 2007 Google had setup a consortium for an "open handset alliance" with 30 handset makers, including Samsung, Motorola, and LG, with the goal of building the new Android powered smartphones. In the fall of 2008 the first Android phone the G1 was introduced. Progress on the phone led to Verizon Wireless and Motorola working with Google for introducing the Droid Android powered smartphone in 2009. In 2010 Google made a failed effort to sell a Google branded HTC Nexus One smartphone direct to buyers. This was followed by the acquisition of Motorola Mobility by Google for $12.5 billion in 2011....

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A big factor in U.S. car sales, which reached 7.5 million in 2015, exceeding the 7.3 million in 2000, is that a large portion of cars on the road were about 11 years old following the recession in 2008-2009. As Dexter Ford pointed out in a article in 2012 many car owners on the road had replaced the earlier 100,000 mile mark before buying a new car, with 200,000. This pent up demand, and the better technological features including gasoline conserving technology, gave new impetus to demand in 2013-2015. Lower gasoline prices at the pump of about $2.00 a gallon in Jan. 2016 across parts of the country made it economical to own SUV's and pickup trucks. The U.S. car companies Ford, GM and Chrysler-Fiat had sales of 2 million full size pickup in 2015, with the Ford F-150 leading. Car companies have come through a severe crisis and are taking steps to avoid a repeat of the mistakes of the past on fuel efficiency- Ford has introduced a lighter aluminium based version of the F-150 for example. Gasoline prices also provide buyers with extra money to meet car payments which now have been stretched to longer periods and lower rates by auto companies to reduce the cost burden per month. AAA says the average price in 2013 for a gallon of gas was $3.49, in 2014 at $3.34, in 2015 at $2.40. AAA says that 71% of gasoline stations sell gas at less than $2.00 in January 2016, and gas prices are likely to remain low for an extended period with lower demand from China, higher fuel efficiency going forward with stricter standards, new technology for shale oil production, and the replacement of cartel pricing by competing production from Saudis, Iran and Russia. On average Americans saved $115 billion on gasoline, or $550 per licensed driver, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report of January 6, 2016. In addition to the $550 saved the higher fuel efficiency with new technology adds a corresponding amount to savings per driver. Add to this the lower payment at low rates over longer periods and the car payment per month has been reduced significantly in a improving job market, to support car sales....

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China shifts its policy to allow 3 children per family after it sees the percentage of people in the population over 60 rising. This WSJ report show that the policy shift is being followed by changes in policies related to education with more equitable educational resources and reduced expenditures for education for families. Policies that were seen as making families hesitant to have more children.  Changes of the Mao era policy of one child, one family, are very recent. Not till 2013 has this policy changed, since its implementation after the Communist Party took over mainland China in 1949. In 2013 the government allowed families to have 2 children if one of the parents was an only child, and two years later in 2015 the policy was changed to allow 2 children per family. Only half of Chinese couples are willing to have 2 children, according to a study by the state backed All China Women's Federation. A once in a decade census shows 12 million babies born in China in 2020. In 2016 there were 17.9 million births. China's leaders noticed a change in the census for people over 60 as a percentage of the population, which was growing much faster than imagined from 13.3% in 2010 to 18.7% in 2020.  The perception of experts and Chinese couples in their thirties shows that the policy is seen as not enough to convince young couples to have another child. Typical is the situation of one parent cited in this report, a Beijing father of two. He says the policy has changed but it does not mean that he would have another child. He says it takes a lot of money and energy to take care of another child. It also affects the standard of living and education of the two children as he has already moved to a new 2 bedroom apartment to be near top schools in the Chinese capital. Another facet of this development is women in China postponing children to pursue their careers. Government policy is now to raise the retirement age with fewer people of working age to support the senior population. The percentage of the population of working age 15 to 59 years dropped from 70% in 2010 to 63% in 2020. Fewer people for working at Chinese factories and manufacturing. China's retirement age is now 60 for men and 50 for women, giving the government room to do this by bringing it up to western levels that are much higher in the US and Europe.   ...

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Under VW CEO Martin Winterkorn sales were up by 77% to 10.2 million units, revenues by 92% to 202 billion euros, and net profit tripled to 10.8 billion euros from 2007 to 2014. Winterkorn's contract ends in 2016.

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Over the short run Europe presents some opportunities after Germany's Merz gets the constitutional brake on spending removed and plans $1 trillion in spending on infrastructure and defense. The US is busy with immigration and other challenges, and tariffs are part of the effort to stop fentanyl on Canada, Mexico and China. This poses uncertainty for business in 2025 which should gain clarity as most tariffs are meant to ensure a level playing field and India, China, EU, Mexico, Canada cannot argue with the idea of we charge them what they charge us, as reciprocal tariffs, as fairness in trade. These countries have reason to cooperate as it is basically fair trade DJT administration is after. Japan cooperated so history shows it can be done and Lighthizer was Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan when he got the Japanese to cooperate and be fair. His deputy is Jameson, now US Trade Representative in 2025. They are no ideologues, just fed up with the way things are and US carrying the trade imbalances and shipping manufacturing overseas that hurts ordinary Americans. US exceptionalism is seen as prevailing after a period in which American companies gain a footing in a level playing field and unfair advantages China, EU other nations had are corrected for investors in the UK, Australia, India and many European countries. It also gives American companies a chance to retool for a new business environment that can offer more opportunities and markets including in India and Europe. ...

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Zhou Xiaochuan, is head of the People's Bank of China since 2002. For a long time Zhou has tried to convince party leaders in China to make financial sector changes. The new leadership of Jinping-Li Keqiang has now adopted most of the road map and priorities drawn up by Xiaochuan. The first is bank deposit insurance, which would especially protect small depositors and provide a basis for new private banks to compete with large state owned banks, creating competition in the financial sector. By supporting creation of privately owned banks impetus could be given to loans to the private sector to rebalance the economy away from state owned banks and state owned enterprises. This is a key goal in the road map drawn up by the think tank Development Research Center (DRC) which has the backing of premier Li Keqiang. Competition from new private banks would let banks compete to offer higher rates to depositors, another goal. In a September article for the Communist Party Seeking Truth magazine, Zhou pointed out the pressing need for " supporting private capital to set up private banks and guide them to position themselves in serving small and micro companies." These new companies especially in tech and information technology fields can be the new drivers for growth in the future as the burst of infrastructure building generated growth slows down. The one area Zhou faces resistance is his idea of opening up China to foreign capital inflows and outflows. Here critics,including younger economists, say this protected China in the Asian financial markets crisis of 1997, and would protect China in the event it faces outflows of the type that are happening in India in 2013 after the U.S. Fed's plan to withdraw from its quantitative easing. Xiaochuan sees the flow of foreign capital as another way for capital to flow to new private companies and balance away from the state owned enterprises, and for China's savers to be able to obtain more attractive returns. Zhou says his plan would include the option for China to reintroduce capial controls in a crisis. As China's debt to GDP ratio is set on a trajectory to approach the levels reached in Japan before its banking crisis there is greater awareness from party leaders about the need for prudence. Xiaochuan has worked with party leader Jinping's key economic advisor Liu He for years, and has the support of He and Jinping for introducing deposit insurance as a top priority. President Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang see the need for Xiaochuan's experience and foresight "as a talent who can be counted on," as the sense of importance of changing the economic structure has deepened in 2013. Mandatory retirement for Xiaochuan at 65 was set aside to give him a third five year term, and his road map long ignored by former premier Wen Biao, is now at the top of China's agenda. ...

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Rattner looks with alarm at recent figures showing that of 2.65 million jobs created in the U.S. in 2015, only 30,000 were in manufacturing. He reflects on growth in manufacturing with the recovery in automobile manufacturing between 2009- 2013 - during this period employment in the U.S. auto industry went up by 23 percent to 690,000, and employment in Mexico's auto industry went up by 60 percent to 589,000, showing much faster growth overseas. Manufacturing has also experienced decline in private sector wages of 0.8% since 2009, with auto industry wages down 12.7 percent, says Rattner.

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Gen. Keane and Pletka say action by the U.S. is needed in 2013 to render ineffective the airdefense system and runways used by warplanes of the Assad regime. They emphasize that the U.S. has the technology and capacity to do this even with the Russian systems added in Syria. The lack of a U.S. response in the face of the Assad regime's attacks on civilian populations and use of chemical weapons, the support to the U.S. from the Arab world and Turkey, and the huge refugee problems in Jordan and Turkey, say Keane and Pletka, will lead to creating a worse situation than the relatively small risks of destroying the runways for Assad's warplanes and the airdefense system.

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The artificial nature of the target of debt to GDP of 120% for Greece in 2020. This is the target being followed in negotiations by the troika of the ECB, IMF and the EU. Experts say the sustainable level would be much lower for Greece -this would be much lower because of the aging population in Greece and lower level of workers to support retirees in future years, the inefficient tax collection system and poor prospects for changing it, the degree of control over monetary policy and the rate of change of debt. A recent study by the Bank for International Settlements shows debt sustainability at 85% after studying 18 countries from 1980 to 2010. No precise source has been found for the 120% target. An IMF Report in 2011 said the 120% was the "maximum level considered sustainable." Alan Auerbach at UC Berkeley and Michael Woodford at Columbia University, say the additional factors are relevant to Greece. The many unpredictables over the course of ten years is another serious difficulty.

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The U.S. government's National Climate Assessment report in November 2017 says observational evidence proves that human action is the main driver for climate change. It warns of sea levels rise as high as 8 feet by the year 2100. It shows damage from climate change that is already happening from a rise in the U.S. by 1.8 degree Fahrenheit of global warming since 1900. Trump has announced withdrawal by the U.S. from the Paris Climate Change Agreement that would cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 percent by 2025 compared to 2005 levels. The Trump administration is relaxing rules by the EPA that would have contributed to the goals of the Paris Agreement.

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India's Supreme court endorses the decision to abrogate Article 370 made in 2019. The Indian Express looks at the decision and the response of different countries leading to the Supreme Court decision in December 2023.

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Slower growth in the second quarter of 0.2-0.3%, after 0.9% growth in the first quarter of 2011, is raising questions about achieving the 5.7% budget deficit target for 2011. France's goal is to reduce the deficit to under 3% of GDP in 2013. Lower tax revenues with the lower growth is reducing the credibility of the deficit goals. The French government is under pressure to make additional austerity cuts.

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The UK government figures show GDP growth for the 3rd quarter 2012 of 1%. In the 1st quarter the economy contracted 0.3% and in the 2nd quarter 2012 it contracted 0.4%. This news is tempered by the fact that one time factors such as the Olympics accounted for the increase. For the year the results for GDP growth are likely to be flat and only modest growth is expected in 2013.

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After declining sales in 2013, India's auto industry recovers in 2014 with 13% more car sales in June 2014 than the prior year month. SUV sales were up 17% in June 2014 over the prior month. Mahindra and Mahindra has 51% of the market share for SUV's from Jan to June 2014, according to LMC. Ford Motor has increased SUV sales in China and is pursuing the same strategy in India.

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The profit squeeze is evident in JP Morgan's net profit margin of 2.14% in the fourth quarter, declining from 2.19% in the prior quarter. Return on assets at 0.78%, down from 0.87% in 2013. Lower interest rates hurt JP Morgan's fixed income, currency and commodities business, and this is not expected to change much in 2015. Legal expenses were $1.1 billion in pretax terms for the fourth quarter 2014.

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S. Korea's Ministry of Science, ICT, and Future Planning setup in 2013 and the 15 year plan to promote internet startups. The purpose of the plan is to persuade new graduates that opportunities exist outside the big conglomerates like Samsung and provide new resources for startups. Five ministries in S. Korea are engaged in this effort and have budgeted a total of $3 billion to help tech developers.

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Coorruption allegations for oil contracts in Algeria and other problems with prosecutors in Italy, are affecting the results of Saipem, an oil services provider in which Eni has 43% stake but lacks operational control. Saipem shares have fallen 50%, with second quarter net loss of $910 million, and expected net loss of $390 million for 2013. Eni shares are down 10%, with the Italy FTSE Mib Index showing no change.

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According to the American Society of Civil Engineers over 10% of the 607,000 bridges in the U.S. are structurally deficient. And 42% of U.S. highways are congested. A poor transportation system makes the U.S. less competitive. The cost to U.S. businesses from a poorly funded and maintained transportation system is about $430 billion more in operating expenses by 2020 and $1.7 trillion in lost opportunities, according to ASCE.

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Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal headed the Joint Special Oprations Command from 2003 to 2008. He is a hands on guy who spends m ost of his time in the field. He is good at building up a sophisticated network, and using his Rolodex to have extensive contacts with people in the field. He used this to track down insurgents and Al Quaeda in Iraq, helping destroy the insurgents leadership.

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Difficult conditions for public sector unions as state governors work to reduce deficits. A weak economy leads to concessions by private sector unions in 2010-2013. This is one of the most difficult periods in union history following the financial crisis of 2008 and large job losses in many industries, especially the auto industry. Maher describes conditions in different industries including telecom, auto, airlines oil, retail,and rail.