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Scholz of Germany and Xi of China meet for private talks at the G-20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2024. Efforts are made to avoid tit for tat tariffs on EV's and settle Ukraine war.

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Protests planned in smaller towns in eastern Germany are the largest since the fall of the Berlin Wall, says this report in DW.com. Protests are against far right AfD and plans to deport immigrants from Germany. About 300,000 people turned out near the chancellery and the Bundestag parliament buildings in Berlin on Saturday Feb. 3, 2024. About 30,000 turned out in Dresden in East Germany. About 1800 organizations have called for protests in Berlin. Luisa Neubauer of the Fridays for Future Climate protests told the crowd according to DW.com- that hope does not fall from the sky, hope is damn hard work and that Germans must live democracy not just passively have democracy. This is showing Berliners and Germans in many cities and small towns in a different light, where the people themselves are taking charge. When political parties from the CDU and SPD, Greens and the Left have let the political landscape fragment with no party having more than 20% support. The future of Germany and the EU depends on these young people out on the streets. ...

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The Journal editorial points out that the refusal to seriously look at the restructuring of Greece's debt is moving from the amusing to the dangerous. Greek 2 year bonds yield 20%, and credit default swaps are priced as though a default is likely. EU denials continue, but Greek, German EU and IMF officials are conceding in private the need to look at this option. The EU thinking was that openly discussing debt restructuring would lead to capital flight, and better to muddle through than to have Greek and European banks take losses and need further bailouts. The editorial emphasizes the importance of Greece restructuring its debt in an orderly fashion. Financial markets have already priced in the likelihood of debt restructuring. Better to conduct serious stress tests with sovereign default scenarios and let investors, taxpayers and governments respond in an orderly way to this situation. The worst possible situation is a Lehman Brothers type panic. The lack of clarity was the biggest problem with Lehman, and the resulting uncertainty led to the financial panic....

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The new cabinet of prime minister Valls in France includes Segolene Royal as Ecology minister. Michel Sapin, labor minister in the outgoing cabinet, becomes finance minister. Sapin was finance minister under the Mitterand government in the 1990's. A critic of austerity policies Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg, continues in this position with a wider role. After losing badly in local elections in March 2014, president Hollande has asked the new cabinet to combine planned tax cuts for businesses with efforts to increase spending power of households. Finance Minister Sapin faces the task of convincing the EU and Germany that France should have more leeway in plans for deficit reduction to boost its economy and especially reduce unemployment. Unemployment is at a high of 11%. Sapin is seasoned in the ways of operating in EU circles. In his role as finance minister in the Mitterand administration he pushed for the passing of the French referendum on the Maastricht Treaty that laid the baiss for the euro currency....

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Akio Toyoda of Toyota Motors resisted making a full scale commitment to EV's leading to Toyota falling behind in EV technology, ceding leadership to Chinese, American and German companies. This report in WSJ looks at how this happened. Toyota vehicle sales are declining and VW has overtaken Toyota. Toyoda failed to make a commitment to a date for going all electric and this has led to criticism of his management of the company and seen as resistance to the climate transition to EV's in the automobile industry putting behind the period of fossil fuel driven cars. Toyoda is the grandson of Kiichiro the founder of the company when it was in textiles in the 1920's. He says the the role of CEO is very lonely and very hard, as his early years were spent without the team spirit seen at the top and he was closer to the grassroots. He is now chairman and has given the decisions of the transition to EV's to the new CEO, Mr. Koji Sato.

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After reading this editorial in the WSJ about the origins of the coronavirus, readers will have more questions about EcoHealth Alliance nonprofit which sent $3.4 million to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) for  research with potential for risky consequences to world public health if something went wrong.  What is gain of function research and what purpose is served in making virus more infectious and contagious such that the National Institutes of Health would send funding overseas for such research are questions that readers may have. Were all the risks considered for such research overseas. The editorial says the US Congress is not showing interest in the origins and the US president Biden has to take up this- some readers might have a question what would make the US Congress not interested in this when coronavirus has affected the US, India, Brazil, Europe, and the poorest countries on earth in unimaginable ways. Can such important matters as world public health fall under the authority of one person, such as Dr. Fauci and other health officials from one country or two countries, when other countries such as India, Brazil, UK, France, Italy, Germany, EU countries, are gravely affected. Global public health has suffered badly and billions of people around the world, in the poorest countries as well as the people in US and Europe have suffered unimaginably in 2020 and 2021 as a consequence of poor decisions. Much needs to be done to get the people themselves informed about public health and how it can be shaped in the future. ...

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The Russian position for a ceasefire in Ukraine and peace talks is set forth by president Putin. "Our principled position is that state of Ukraine must be neutral, non aligned and free of nuclear weapons." Putin wants Ukraine to give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Russian speaking regions in the east of Ukraine. Capitals of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and some of the territory is controlled by Ukraine today. It means that Russia could accept a ceasefire under the present lines of control. It also means Ukraine would not be part of NATO, though it could be part of the European Union, as a peace settlement. All western sanctions on Russia would have to be lifted. Throughout the decade of this war Russia has maintained close connections to the Russian speaking eastern part of Ukraine with historically close ties to Russia and as Ukraine public opinion shifted to the EU Russia began its efforts to bring these regions under its control even when German-Russian relations were better during Merkel years. Russia has the support of China and Brazil in its position. At some point if a settlement is reached one possibility is that the line of actual control or LAC would be put in place. It happened in the Korean War, when the demilitarized zone was setup and in other conflicts on the Indian border with China and Pakistan, in Cyprus between Greece and Turkey. For it to happen Russia will have to dispel fears in the EU and the US that Russia will continue the conflict at some later stage till all its objectives are achieved. This requires removing the perception that Putin is set on achieving all his objectives to reopen the war at some later stage. Mr. Putin hinted at this by saying "today we are making a concrete real peace proposal," and adding that Russia was not ''talking about freezing the conflict, but its final resolution." In this situation it is the western doubt about Putin's intentions that is another barrier to a settlement on European security, with continued destruction in Ukraine when the war has entered a stalemate where both sides have exhausted their resources and have little to gain by prolonging this conflict. ...

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Laurence Peter of the BBC News describes a meeting of EU leaders in December 2016. The new Europa building with its space egg shape will be the location of the next summit in 2016, adding to a sense of history that the EU idea has witnessed since the 1950's, even optimism about far it has come at a time of a few setbacks.  He points out that Theresa May was not without persons to talk to at the meeting, though some video clips showed her looking lonely. EU president Martin Schulz said he was emotional seeing students crying after the Brexit vote, but that it was time to find solutions and not be emotional today. Lunch was offered at the meeting by Spain and Portugal, to mark the 30 years since they joined. People forget how much the European Community meant to the two countries after decades of suffering under fascist dictatorships- it meant new hope and an opportunity to set things right. Problems facing the EU today include, the frustration at the carnage in Aleppo, Syria, how to deal with Britain and Brexit, setting up an asylum system that will work, dealing with Ukraine and Russia without making the situation worse, and remaining concerns about the Greece debt crisis. ...

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Already lead US negotiator and ambassador to Ukraine Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg has created a miscomprehension on the US and European side as to who will participate in negotiations. Lack of experience in tough negotiations to end a conflict is showing as it must be evident that Ukraine and the European Council, the EU, would expect to be part of any negotiations that settle questions about the security of Europe and what kind of Europe emerges from the negotiations. The European problem comes from the European lack of resolve to set aside or settle internal divisive issues such as migration, privatization, globalization winners and losers, rural vs urban, that have created economic and political divisions in Europe to concentrate with unity on issues that have common interest. Bad policy as in the US from business and government to overconcentrate manufacturing in China, in Germany to overconcentrate energy supplies from one provider, are sources of the conflict and have taken years to fix alongside the pandemic. European leaders scramble to define their position after statements by US Defense minister Hegseth and US's Ukraine ambassador Kellogg that suggested direct talks US with Russia would leave out the EU and Ukraine. Hegseth stepped back from some comments. Marco Rubio, US Foreign Minister, says Ukraine will be at the negotiating table in talks the US holds with Russia. Macron meets with Scholz, EU's Tusk, and NATO's Rutte this week.  Ambassador Kellogg and lead negotiator had said to European leaders about their being at the negotiating table-  “I think that’s not going to happen.” The EU Council head Costa after meetings with European leaders says Europe's position is-“In a nutshell: There will be no credible and successful negotiations, no lasting peace, without Ukraine and without the European Union.” Further he said-  “It must guarantee that Russia will no longer be a threat to Ukraine, to Europe, to its neighbors,” he said. ...

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Trade between Russia and Germany was about $100 billion in 2013, or about 3.3% of German exports. About 300,000 jobs depend on exports to Russia, according to Germany's DIHK Chambers of Commerce. A poll released by Der Spiegel on July 27, 2014, shows 52% of Germans now support tough sanctions on Russia, with the mood shifting following the death of 193 Dutch residents on Malaysian Airlines Flight 17. Finance minister Schauble told the Bild newspaper- "Damaging pece and stability would be the biggest risk for the economy."

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This article in German news service DW.com looks at Taiwan and the threat it faces from China. It looks at different scenarios that might erode Taiwan's status as an independent country. Taiwan's foreign minister Joseph Wu sees the internal situation in China as affecting China's approach to Taiwan. He says China "may find Taiwan a convenient scapegoat" because of the internal situation with floods in China, the economy affected by coronavirus, and other problems.

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NYT reporters Lyman and Eddy show how the city of Weimar in Germany is coping with the arrival of about 900 refugees, and how well the integration efforts are working.

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Germany is facing a shrinking market for its electric car exports to China as local makers dominate the market in China for the first time in 2023. BYD is China's largest e-car maker and is growing much faster than American or European makers. Every second e-car worldwide in 2023 is made in China. Germany's e-car exports are 60% of what they were in 2022. BYD sells 20 times more e-cars in China than VW.

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Walker of the WSJ describes how the new issues of immigration and identity are changing the way people vote in European Union countries. In the Dutch election there were other surprises. The Dutch Labor Party which won 25% of the vote in the 2012 elections fared badly and got only 6% of the vote. Much of this vote was picked up by antipopulist parties such as the Greens. Mr. Rutte, the prime minister under the current government, and his party centre right VVD won 21% of the vote. Social Democrats and Labor parties in Netherlands, France and Britain are doing badly, and even Martin Schulz's SPD's higher popularity is said to be reaching a peak and may not last till September, says Walker. Labor Party in Netherlands failed because of its participation as a junior party in a centre right government following austerity policies, say analysts. Overall as shown in Netherlands the tensions and loss of credibility of social democrats is playing out differently in each country. The Netherlands election shows that there is also an anti-populist shift that moves some of the vote from social democrats to parties such as Greens, or other parties or movements that have gained credibility as the social democrats faded.  ...

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There is a sharp decline in investor confidence in Greece as the Syriza Party leads in polls in Dec. 2014, with a 3-6 point lead over New Democracy Party of prime minister Samaras. There was a sharp selloff on the Athens stock exchange and yields on Greece's 10 year government bonds went up to 8.5% by Dec. 11, 2014. The government needs 180 votes for a presidential election vote in parliament. The outcome is uncertain and could lead to early parliamentary elections on Jan 25, 2015, with Syriza a potential winner. Syriza had taken a strong line on Greece's debt in 2012 elections, including a possible debt default. It now says it is willing to renegotiate and maintain relations with IMF, EU and the ECB creditors to Greece. In fact, Syriza leader Tsipras has met with ECB chief Draghi, former ECB official Joerg Asmussen of Germany, and Greece's central bank chief. Syriza has changed its party promises to reflect its move to the mainstream- such as not offering to hire back workers or make tax relief measures apart from specific ones, only insisting on freezing public sector layoffs and reversing minimum wage cuts. The EU programs for Greece lapse on 28, Feb. 2015, and an EU official say it is important that Syriza agree to a program following that date to reassure financial markets....

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The collapse of the will of people around Yanukovych, including a deputy interior minister, as fighting units moved with weapons taken from an armory in Lviv towards Kiev, may have been the decisive event that decided the fate of the Yakunovych government. The deputy interior minister then negotiated with a protest leader Levus realizing that other than the front line of police the rest of the police were ready to abandon the fight. Levus then negotiated a safe corridor for the police to withdraw. As the Polish diplomat Sikorski came out to the square he found to his complete astonishment the police simply disappearing from the Square in Kiev. Hours earlier he had warned protesters that a crackdown was coming and they would all be wiped out, according to a report in the WSJ by Benoit, Norman and Fidler, 2/22/2014, so that they should accept a deal which would set a date for new elections but not lead to the immediate resignation of Yakunovych. That deal it also appears came after a Putin call to Yakunovych and not simply from diplomatic pressures, and it is probable that Putin had realized earlier than the diplomats that most of the police were not going to fight. Bringing in the army would have had dangerous consequences for relations between Germany and Russia in particular- as German public and chancellor Merkel felt strongly about the situation in Ukraine- and relations with the European Union and the U.S. Putin, Yakunovych, and even the EU diplomats may have missed the depth of feeling in Ukraine and the organization of the protest movement. Germany and chancellor Merkel, with her determination to make things come out right in Europe after a flawed history, gave hope to the protest movement. ...

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As Germany looks back at the mistakes of the past in failing to get immigrants to integrate and letting ethnic communities form that failed both in terms of jobs and language/culture skills needed to become full citizens, it is now taking a fresh approach to the task of integrating about 1 million new immigrants. For the first time the government is putting this approach into legislation that is sure to pass, offering new incentives, requiring immigrants to look for work and to take jobs in smaller towns and communities. It offers new opportunities and at the same time takes away benefits if this is not done. Chancellor Merkel calls this "a milestone," and said about this legislation- " We are a country that makes a good offer to those who come to us, to those who are fleeing war, persecution, terrorism. But we are also saying very clearly- because we have learned from the past  when we did not provide these integration opportunities- that we're also expecting people to accept this offer." The lessons were learned after large immigration from Turkey in the 1960's and 1970's with ethnic communities being formed that never integrated with the rest of German society. The new law requires refugees to stay in municipalities where they are first assigned when arriving in Germany unless they have a job offer elsewhere. The government plans to subsidize creation of 100,000 new jobs across Germany, in work such as maintaining public parks, helping elderly, an alternative says Labor Minister Andrea Nahles "to doing nothing." The law also makes it easier for private employers to hire people in towns across Germany. The new German approach is for a two way handshake, and to take a pioneering approach. ...

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During a public dialogue during the federal government's open day German Chancellor Scholz takes time to go over the origins of the war in Europe as he understands it. Of Russia acting "clearly with the intention of conquering its neighboring country," in an imperialist manner. Here is what he said- On Nato During talks before the war started in February when he met Putin in Moscow Scholz assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO "in the next 30 years." NATO was never a threat to Russia even though Putin says NATO's increasing eastward expansion was to the detriment of Russia's interests. On the origins of the war in Europe- Scholz says Putin launched the war for "completely absurd reasons." During his talks with Putin for example he says Putin told him that Belarus and Ukraine should not be independent states. "This is a war that Putin, Russia, started, clearly with the intention of conquering its neighboring country. I think that was the original goal." "Putin actually had the idea of swiping a felt-tip pen across the European landscape and then saying, 'This is mine and this is yours.' " Something Germany could not accept. Scholz condemns Putin's imperialism. He compares Russia's actions to the early days of imperialism. Scholz was reported to be reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms book Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy in Europe from 1453 to the Present, before the war started. Simms shows a Europe that fought intermittent wars for supremacy between European powers Spain, Britain, Dutch, French, Germany, Austria- Hungary, Russia, Sweden over most of the period 1450 to 1950. The last part of the period was marked from 1850 to 1900 by an openly imperialist land grab for territory in Africa and Asia between Britain, France, Japan and Germany.  The period 1950 to 2000 marked by the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union and China.    On planning for the war in advance- DW.com reports that Olaf Scholz is convinced that Putin planned this war long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. On the future of the war- Scholz says he will not end the dialogue with Putin. Scholz and Germany, Biden and the US want to show that the imperialist type of expansion into neighboring states is no longer accepted, not for Russia or China. Scholz says Russia is currently engaged in gaining territory in eastern Ukraine, but it is not certain that it will stay that way, so giving in is not a sensible strategy.  Ukraine needs the Black Sea ports and the area around Kherson on the Dnieper river to maintain its economy through exports of foodgrains. There is international consensus that these exports are essential to most of Africa and other parts of the world. The war in the remaining part of 2022 into the winter is being fought in this area. Another area of international consensus is that of the refugees mostly women and children in other parts of eastern Europe, and the displaced people within Ukraine moving from the east and south to the west. For the first time the US and Germany are providing Ukraine with the air defense systems that it needs to protect refugees, something that was missing for the many early months of the war leading to millions of refugees inside and outside Ukraine.       ...

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Seen as a rural urban divide, less educated and well educated and tech workers the situation in France looks similar to that in the US in the elections of 2016 and 2020. With business in the US and European Union shifting manufacturing to China and the governments neglecting rural areas, decline in standard of living for people on pensions that have not kept up with the cost of living, the situation in France as in the US is decades in the making. Bernie Sanders and Melenchon were appealing in different ways to younger people yearning for change and a system that would correct these changes.   Melenchon coming this close to less than one percentage point of Le Pen in the first round of French elections shows that a straight Macron Le Pen version of what has happened is an oversimplification, just as seeing the changes in America under president Biden vs Trump would be a simplification, as voters for Sanders who voted for Biden are changing the Biden agenda and setting America on a new path. A path to reshoring jobs that were sent to China, rebuilding American manufacturing, increasing workers wages and restoring workers leverage for higher wages, investing $2 trillion in child care, housing, supporting worker incomes and families, supporting older Americans on pensions. In the same way beneath the idea that nothing has happened after the yellow vest protests for cost of living, that has not only not gone away- but increased in the concern for cost of living in this election with the surging inflation - new developments are happening.  Even as Germany under Merkel appeared not be changing in 2020- 1 year after Merkel the situation will have changed completely to address social concerns that were ignored earlier and to invest in infrastructure in a big way. Behind this is a fundamental change that is taking place. Facing a challenge from totalitarian states the fabric of society in the free world, the US, Germany, France, other EU states, India, and nations in the free world will have to respond with changes that restore the fabric of society to what it was before this kind of fracturing, bringing all parts of society together to bring all the energies in place for rebuilding, investing in infrastructure, restoring local manufacturing and renewal. It requires a unified effort to be put in place to respond in the right way.     ...

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The head of the European Centres for Disease Control ECDC, Dr. Andrea Ammon, says the Delta variant of the coronavirus will make up 70% of all cases in Europe by early August, and 90% of all cases by the end of August. ECD modeling shows that there is a risk of another wave like the one after last summer in Europe. The Delta variant is much more infectious than the UK Alpha variant and the UK variant much more infectious than the original variant. A 50% reduction in non-pharmaceutical interventions such as allowing the staging of events would lead to an increase in infection in all age groups. Latest ECDC data show 34% of people in Europe fully vaccinated and 57% with one dose. One dose offers much less protection. Younger individuals have a lower vaccination rate and are vulnerable. Also vulnerable are the older people not vaccinated yet. About 40% of people over 60 are not yet vaccinated, and 30% of people over 80 years are not yet vaccinated in the European Union. As in the US vaccination varies by region within the EU. All these vulnerable groups can be affected in another wave of the coronavirus similar to after last summer when restrictions were removed. Dr. Ammon is a former advisor to the German government. She says it is important for young people who are not vaccinated to continue to follow the strict social distancing precautions.  This is not happening today as governments are relaxing mask mandates in Britain, France and Spain. Soccer games are coming back to fan filled stadiums increasing the risk. Tourist spots in Portugal and Greece are now looking similar to the vacation spots in Croatia that increased infections in Europe after summer 2020. ...

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Mr. Zelensky of Ukraine makes his first official visit to Warsaw, Poland in April 2023. He was welcomed in Poland with an outpouring of support. About 10 million Ukrainians have crossed into Poland since the war began in February 2022. Of this 1.5 million Ukrainians have settled in Ukraine, the rest have gone to neighboring countries or returned to Ukraine. Poland has also opened its market to Ukrainian grain causing unrest among farmers because of lower prices. Poland has a population of 38 million, Ukraine a population of 43 million. These two nations are now the countries that are in the frontlines of the war after Russia's invasion. Other countries that have seen Soviet invasion such as Finland in 1939, Czech Republic in 1968, are now part of the NATO alliance force that faces Russia across a long common border. The Finnish border with Russia stretches for 830 miles through vast forested regions. The US is building a vast warehouse complex in Warsaw that will store US and NATO tanks. As the war continues a year later the resolve of the US and of Ukraine and Poland remain undiminished to the Russian invasion. This is unlike the events of post 1945 when Europe as a whole had seen the effects of 5 years of war and America faced the Soviet expansion into war ravaged Eastern Germany, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Greece. In 2023 the economies of the US and European Union have survived the economic effects of the war and the US is embarking on a huge plan to rebuild its infrastructure and its manufacturing capacity. The US and European Union through NATO remain united to reject any nation changing borders with impunity by force- the issue they see in Ukraine and in Taiwan. On the issue of Taiwan the US, EU are joined by Japan, Australia, Philippines, Vietnam and India. The issue of impunity and allowing borders to be changed by force will remain a strong one for the US and EU, on which there may be little room for concessions because of the principle. In his History of Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present, Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has shown that no nation by itself or with its allies has been able to use its dominant position to exercize power with impunity without meeting formidable combined opposition of other countries  in Europe. Over 500 years of history France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, have in turn had to agree to give up claims after meeting a formidable opposition of other countries in Europe. This Russian invasion does not appear to be any different.  ...