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Mexican president Lopez Obrador overhauled the way the Mexican government buys pharmaceutical supplies to avoid being overcharged by suppliers. This has led to some shortages.The government says this has led to significant savings. It says the government paid out 58% more for medicines and acquired 38% less in medical supplies under the previous arrangements. The Mexican government first handed purchases of all drugs to the Finance Ministry and then in mid 2020 to a UN agency, the UN Office for Project Services which will handle purchases till 2024. 

The UN agency says it secured 97% of the supplies but only 44% of the medicine has reached hospitals across Mexico, according to Insabi the agency set up by president Lobrador to provide access to medical care to people without social security. This is because of logistical problems.

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BBC answers the question "Who is Keir Starmer?" in this report on the new British prime minister. He graduated from Leeds University and studied law at Leeds and Oxford. He joined the Socialist Movement soon after college. He was a prominent contributor to magazine Socialist Lawyer. In school he had joined the Young Socialists, Labour's youth organization. His name is from the first leader of the Labour party Keir Hardie. He is the first from his family to go to college. From 1988 to 2008 he was a practicing lawyer and concentrated his efforts on his work till he was made the Director of Public Prosecutions, the chief prosecutor of England and Wales. Keir likes to talk about this period including prosecuting terrorist gangs as an example of public service. It was late only until age 52 in 2015 that he was given the safe Labour parliamentary seat in north London of Holborn St Pancras. Jeremy Corbyn was elected leader of Labour in 2015. Sir Keir worked well with Jeremy Corbyn during this period and was Immigration Secretary and Brexit Secretary from the back benches. When Corbyn's leadership was challenged Starmer supported this, with Corbyn resigning in 2020 after the 2019 election defeat and being replaced by Starmer.  Then followed a period of fighting the Conservatives and only coming level to the Conservatives in 2021 in popular support. The changes that made Labour more popular and reversing finally the decline of 14 years did not come till 2023 only 12 months before this election. Throughout Sir Keir maintained his composure and moderate positions, distancing himself from Corbyn, to regain the confidence of the British people. When one sees that the votes increase in 2024 is only 2% for Labour in 2024 one realizes the achievement of Sir Keir in transforming Labour to run the country that is so needed today. The slight increase in votes converts into a landslide through careful planning and strategy, but it also hides the fact that the British people have turned to Labour for answers and solutions to the problems they face. Such is the level of confidence that Sir Keir has built over time bit by bit, as he says "brick by brick," something that is clearly in Sir Keir's character and manner of doing things. ...

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Some ideas from Robert Shiller of Yale University who has widely written about bubbles including the stock bubbles and has jointly developed the Shiller-Case index of housing prices. Shiller suggests creating futures contracts tied to home prices. And the thinking goes once there is enough trqding in these futrues contracts people can sell the housing market short-that is bet on afall in house prices- so that there is a restraining effect on housing bubbles developing. But the reviewer thinks that this is debatable because its possible to sell stocks short and yet we have stock market bubbles. Shillers other suggestion is for developing new types of insurance to protect people from a fall in house prices or from a longterm loss of income as a result of jobs becoming obsolete, but its not clear who would pay for this insurance and its cost. Another suggestion is for the government to to give subsidies or tax credits for ordinary people to get unbiased financial advice. This could be a useful suggestion if there are credible and honest sources of such advice and they are identified and made widely available to the general public by the government. A related suggestion is the development of a supplement to the consumer price index that is based on a realistic basket of goods and services that people use that gives people a realistic idea of what is happening so that they do not assume that houses are always a good long term investment and can separate inflation. And Shiller suggests a standard mortgage contract be developed so that people who cannot understand the fine print like most of us especially when its put in by lawyers for mortgage companies can turn to htis contract. This is an excellent suggestion but one wonders why something so obvious has been not already widely available as an alternative to those who cannot figure out all the machinations behind all that small print. The book is titled SubPrime Solution and one wonders whether much more than this is needed to control all the fog and euphoria about housing prices, and all the incentives and pressure in hard selling tactics of most of the large mortgage companies, and all the ethical violations of credit ratings companies who rated mortgage securities and ethical violations of mortgage companies....

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The US House of Representatives led by Speaker Kevin McCarthy passes a debt ceiling bill with a close vote on largely party lines 217 to 215 votes. The bill raises the debt ceiling in exchange for spending cuts of 14%. President Biden cited Moody's analysis showing a loss of 780,000 jobs with such large spending cuts. The bill has no chance of approval in a Democrat led Senate.

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On Jan 19, 2023 the US hit its debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion. Republicans control the House of Representatives by only a few votes after a strong showing in midterms by Democrats who control the Senate. A small section of the Republican party insists that raising the debt ceiling- a task performed by the House of Representatives- should only be done with serious cuts to Biden programs to help workers and families during a cost of living crisis. Biden says he will not negotiate, simply won't.  This report in NYT by Jim Tankersley, says president Biden in the last resort could resort to the 14th Amendment which says: "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions shall not be questioned." What this means is that in the last resort if Republicans insist on serious cuts because of a faction within the party, and not because the whole party supports it, Mr. Biden could continue public borrowings to pay social security and make other payments. Moody's says this would lead to a rise in borrowing costs temporarily but would not lead to a recession, and have long term benefits as the debt ceiling could not be applied in the future. It would be challenged by Republicans and go to the Supreme Court which would have to decide on the issue: "the validity of the public debt of the United States shall not be questioned." This drew 1338 comments on NYT. ...

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Paul Krugman in NYT outlines the options president Biden faces if Republicans decide not to increase the debt ceiling in the House of Representatives. All the alternatives are better than defaulting on the national debt. All options also create some short term volatility in financial markets before things stabilize. Biden and Democrats refuse to allow a repeat of negotiations of the kind Mr. Obama made with Republicans on the debt ceiling. The cuts a small faction in the Republican party is asking for come from spending that has already been approved by the House. It is also spending that meets the needs of the American people during a cost of living crisis, and for national priorities in fighting climate change, health and defense. Krugman also points out that cuts to welfare spending won't put more people to work as the unemployment rate is at a new low, and the theory behind it in this situation only deprives the neediest from getting help during a cost of living crisis. ...

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The title says this but Biden has not blown it by conducting discussions on the debt ceiling with Kevin McCarthy, Republican leader in the House of Representatives. Krugman presents MAGA Republicans as controlling the House. The situation is a bit more complicated than that as the Republican margin is only 222-213 with moderates who could move in Biden's direction if a default is impending. Previous articles in the NYT and WSJ have shown how the president has his own set of options including  simply ignoring the ceiling or citing a part of the Constitution of the US that gives the president the authority to conduct the business of the country in such a situation. Mr. Biden is taking the situation as calmly as possible, as the midterms have also given the president a situation where he sees the country on his side with Democrats needing only a few moderates in the Republican party to support him. Mr. McCarthy has his own reasons to support Biden as he supports president Biden in the task of backing up NATO and Ukraine. Having discussions with McCarthy keeps the country together at a time when Ukraine has a planned counter offensive to defend the country. Biden was able to achieve legislative achievements that are comparable to FDR and Lyndon Johnson because of his calm and patient approach. ...

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Democrats in the House of Representatives need about five votes of moderate Republicans to get approval for spending that exceeds the debt ceiling if no agreement can be reached with the Republicans under Speaker McCarthy. This is one of the options Democrats under president Biden are keeping open if the spending cuts Republicans are asking for hurts workers and families in ways unacceptable to values of fairness to all segments of society supported by Lincoln, Wilson, FDR and Truman that have shaped America over two hundred years. T Though it is not readily apparent in an America where about 22% of 8th graders are able to get a passing grade in civics and history in NAEP tests, a rereading of the writings and speeches of Abraham Lincoln show the same concern for the rights of all segments of society that are found in Wilson and FDR or Truman. This is also what Biden means when he calls this a struggle for the soul of America. More not less funding for education, more not less funding for health after the pandemic and cost of living crisis, more not less funding for public services at a time like this where there is a fracturing of society as well as isolating certain segments of society from others such as the growing distance between workers and families from places such as Silicon Valley and capital markets in America.  ...

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Binyamin Applebaum of the NYT Editorial Board says the gap from 1972 to 2021 of 21% of GDP in spending and 17% of GDP in taxes taken in is a serious problem because it creates $31 trillion in debt and over 475 billion in interest payments each year. And much of the spending is wildly popular 63% that goes to Social Security and Medicare, and vital spending on health care and education, social services that takes up 15%. The rest is defense and interest payments. The rest of the G7 spend about 50% more on average he says. This is why he says Republicans holding up raising the debt ceiling is not the issue that needs to be faced each year there are better more direct and sensible solutions that also address the need for the Renewal of America after years of underinvestment in everything from infrastructure to health and education. And capital markets that overcrowded essential government spending to finance massive capital misallocation by tech companies, the costs of which are only now being understood in America. ...

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Daniel Henninger says in the WSJ that the debt ceiling will be raised, and Republicans should not be pitting program against program. He says the narrative though should be framed around the trillions being spent by the Biden administration on climate change action, US manufacturing and technology in chips, with interest on debt at over $400 billion a year. Yet this does not take into account that for two decades there has been an overcrowding of US government initiated capital investment for essential needs by massive Tech industry misallocation of funds even as productivity of this capital invested by tech was dropping, with much wasted capital. Today because these essential needs in infrastructure and for manufacturing and technology were starved for so long of capital the productivity of capital in these areas is high and will have ripple effects to help rebuild America.

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HP' merger with EDS may give it a larger share of the technology services market but risks remain. The margins at EDS are low about 6% compared to double that at IBM. IBM has 74,000 employees in India, EDS has only 27,000 of its 140,000 employees in India.

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Theresa May becomes the only candidate for leadership of the Conservative Party after Ms Leadsom withdraws from the race. No leadership vote will no take place with Conservative Party members and no early general election is planned. May is expected to become prime minister of Britain by July 12, replacing David Cameron. Her theme is for "one Britain" and to do away with the rising inequality and gap between London and the rest of the country, which was part of the anxiety of voters who voted 52% for Brexit on issues of immigration burden on social and health services, national sovereignty, and a sense of ordinary people being neglected by elites in both parties. May will invoke Article 50 to leave the European Union and begin a 2 year period of negotiations only after she has developed a clear negotiating strategy. Kenneth Clarke, a Conservative Party cabinet minister called May a "bloody difficult woman," but this did not affect May, who said Mr Juncker of the EU was the one who would find this out in negotiations.  What is significant for Britain is May's moderate position coupled with a clear goal for removing some of the causes of the inequity in British society, which is needed for Britain to remain united. She called on companies like Amazon, Google and others to pay their fair share of taxes, and made clear her intent to strengthen the mechanisms for controlling executive pay. Also part of this strategy will be a more effective immigration control policy, which she did not implement vigorously as Home Secretary in the Cameron government, partly because of constraints set by EU membership. May made clear her agenda going forward by saying: "There is a growing divide between a more prosperous older generation and a struggling younger generation. And there is a gaping chasm between wealthy London and the rest of the country."  Changes May is supporting are to make executive pay rules to become binding not just advisory, and for employees and consumers to gain seats on company boards.  ...

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In the interests of a stable government and for rapid development in the state on an unprecedented scale the position of Chief Minister was given to a smaller party with 51 members in the Assembly of Maharashtra. The BJP party the larger party in the new coalition has 106 members in the State Assembly. Mr. Eknath Shinde was sworn in as Chief minister and Mr. Fadnavis of the BJP was made Deputy chief minister based on the understanding of leaders in the federal government in New Delhi on the best way to move Maharashtra forward as a leader in economic and infrastructure development in India. Maharashtra and the capital city of Bombay once the commercial capital of British India has a difficult history of post independence politics. With Nehru's Congress party giving way to George Fernandes trade unionism after 1967 and after 1986 a movement led by Bal Thackeray that sought to give local Marathi youth jobs preference in Mumbai. Lacking the capital, technology and the industrial expertise for development on an American scale, much of this political arrangement has failed to meet the growing aspirations of the young people of Maharashtra and of India. These reasons motivated the federal government to put more emphasis on the "karya karta" or "good worker" principle itself than on the position of chief minister. Much of the rapid development will take place under the leadership of the most competent IAS Indian civil service officers selected for the largest infrastructure projects and the leaders of Indian industry, making the old conception of chief minister redundant. The focus shifts to who can get things done to meet aspirations for Maharashtra 2030 and how it will compare with Uttar Pradesh 2030, or Tamilnadu 2030. How will Metro rail, Bullet trains and Semiconductor Parks, Logistics networks and Exports in the new supply chain the US and EU is setting up in Asia, how will all this look in the 3 states in 2030? This will become clear in 2023 as development accelerates to what India needs. ...

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Chile, Mexico and the U.S. rank high in the diabetes rate for top soda consuming countries. In the U.S. the diabetes rate is at 7.7% of the population, in Chile 9.6% and Mexico 9%. Soda consumption per capita was at 165 litres in the U.S., 146 litres in Mexico and 134 litres in Chile, and 145 litres in Argentina where the diabetes rate is at 3.9%, for 2012. A new public service ad in Mexico City subway stations says it all, showing an ad with a soda bottle and the words- "Would you take 12 teaspoonfuls of sugar? Soda is sweet, diabetes isn't." The new Pacto de Mexico agreed to by all major political parties includes the soaring diabetes rate in Mexico as a problem to be tackled, including lunches at public schools and the consumption of coke and sodas by children. A particular acute problem in Mexico is the lack of clean drinking water in many areas and the dependence on coke and sodas for liquids. But bottled water could be used in its place if available at lower prices. One proposal is for a soda tax which could generate $2 billion and be used for setting up clean drinking water fountains in schools and other places. Elected officals in Mexico are firm about the need for action, as Mexico recently became the first country over 100 million inhabitants with the highest obesity rates at 7 adults out of 10 over the age of 20 obese or overweight, and the consequently high diabetes rate. Diabetes is the No. 2 killer in Mexico, and a serious health danger. Coca Cola gets its second highest revenues from Mexico after Europe, and the situation has evolved after years of heavy coke advertising to the point where Coca Cola is taken at every meal by some Mexican families, and is a sign of prestige. The company's response is to fight the public service ads with ads showing people burning off 149 calories by walking. The country now faces a long and uphill fight. Russia is one of the countries which is also conducting a similiar fight against soda drinks. The Bloomberg Philanthropy is financing efforts against soda drinks in Mexico, as part of its campaign against smoking and sodas as health hazards, and this maybe Bloomberg's bigger contribution to society than his service to New York City. Developing middle income countries such as Mexico, Chile, India, China, Brazil, are the hardest hit by soaring diabetes. And the costs to their health systems in 10-20 years from uncontrolled obesity and diabetes will be enormous. The U.S. is a developed country with similiar high rates of obesity and diabetes, with soaring medical costs, and serious problems that strangely have not received the public awareness and efforts that one should expect. ...

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Bloomberg Associates is a firm created by Mayor Bloomberg to help cities all over the world improve city living from Louisville, Kentucky to Mexico City. The focus is on cities using the expertise and experience gained in running New York City, and replicating some of the success in New York elsewhere. Public health, economic development and environment sustainability remain at the forefront. Other ideas include making more room for pedestrian plazas in busy areas, calorie counts in fast-food chains, curbing smoking, a customer-service hotline for city residents. This includes projects such as turning blighted or neglected neighborhoods into attractive public spaces and making subway friendly residential neighborhoods. In places such as New Orleans the Mayor's staff has already produced changes in the crime rate with innovative programs and financing from Bloomberg Philanthropies. Their will be no fees for sharing this expertise and knowledge. Joining the new firm are most of Mayor Bloomberg's top staff, including Amanda Burden, director of city planning. George Fertitta will run the firm....

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David Cote describes his experience as a late bloomer. He describes his experiences taking six years for college, and at 23 living with a pregnant wife in a New Hampshire tenement. With the only heat source a stove for a chilly New Hampshire winter, and not enough money to support three people, it was his wake up call. A lesson learnt from his father who operated a service station stays with him. It is about thinking twice when your pride and emotion drive you in another direction but you have to act smart instead. Decisiveness can be a bad thing, if done the wrong way- coming up with a decision without getting all or as much as possible of the facts and looking at them carefully. The bigger the decision, the bigger the consequences if you get it wrong. For this it helps to have people around a senior manager who do the same, are able to think independently and argue with you about it in a way that keeps the matter objective without it getting emotional.

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The International Energy Agency sees a shortfall of 12.5 million barrels a day when it compares the needed 37.5 million barrels a day by 2015 with the planned supply increases showing 25 million barrels a day. A lot depends on the assumptions and what the 37.5 million barrels a day is based on. Does it account for a slowdown in the world economy and a drive for fuel efficiency and conservation habits by 2015? How much of this is reflected in the numbers? And on the planned increases of 25 million barrels a day- does it account for increases that may be planned in 2009 and 2010 in response to prices above $150 a barrrel which is expected? The IEA has a team of 25 analysts working on the forecasts but it gets no cooperation from Saudi Arabia about its individual fields production, and Venezuela, Iran and China also keep their information a secret. This makes supply forecasting a difficult business. IEA uses IHS Inc a data provider, USA Geologic Survey, oil and service companies information and national petroleum councilds information....

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There is a mixed picture behind the drop in investment in new oil exploration. The IEA estimates that overall investment will be down 15-20% in 2009. The number of drilling rigs in use globally fell 32% in the year to April 2009, to 2055, according to Baker-Hughes, an oilfield services firm. In America the number of rigs in use is down by 50%, and OPEC countries are cancelling 35 big projects, according to the OPEC secretary general, Salem Al-Badri. Cambridge Energy Associates estimates that 5.5 million barrels a day of capacity additions may not take place in the next couple of years, which is a third of expected net increase by 2014. Examine this a bit more closely and you find that the oil majors despite lack of access to oil in inhospitable terrain or foreign countries, are still holding up well in investment. Exxon increased capital spending by 5% in the 1st quarter 2009, and Shell and Chevron plan to invest the same in 2009 as in 2008, $31 billion and $23 billion. BP plans to go from $21 billion to $20 billion. Canadian Tar Sands investments are being reevaluated in the light of prices, and smaller companies like Devon Energy are cutting back, for Devon from $9 billion in 2008 to $4 billion in 2009. From the national oil companies the investments are holding up in Saudi Arabia, whereas they are faltering in Russia and cash strapped Venezuela. Saudi Aramco recently completed a 5 year project increasing capacity from 10m b/d to 12.5 b/d at cost of $70 billion. And another $60 billion is set aside for more investments which will be less vigorously pursued as Saudis have 4.5m b/d of idle capacity after production cutbacks by OPEC. Petrobras plans to increase its investment by 55% to $174 billion in the next 5 years in offshore discoveries challenged by deep waters and thick layers of salt. The oilfield services companies like Schlumberger are cutting back, with Schlumberger cutting investment in 2009 by 13% to $2.6 billion and shedding 5000 jobs. Baker Hughes shed 3000 jobs. Mature fields are also receiving less investment, so that the drop from mature fields will be 9.4% according to IEA instead of 7.7% projected earlier with larger investments. The picture described above shows investments by the Saudis, the majors, oil field services firms, investments in recovery improvements in mature fields, not in a precipitious decline. The picture is of cautious and careful investment and some pullbacks as the economies of the US suffered decline in GDP of 6% in the 1st quarter 2009 over prior year and the German and Japanese economies suffered decline of 15-16%. Even the most optimistic forecasts for China do not go above 8% for 2009. In the light of these growth estimates the moderate drop in investments in new oil exploration may match the moderation in growth in Asia and the drop in growth in the USA and Europe and Japan. The forecasts of steeply higher oil prices or spikes like those in 2007-2008 are based on the notion of a quick economic recovery. See the links to economic recovery on this. These links suggest that the current surge may not last as the basics for a recovery are weak. In the US foreclosures, toxic assets, housing, consumption and savings, and unemployment all indicate a weak economy for several years down the road. And it is this weakness that the oil investment exploration budgets may be responding to in amoderated manner. The latest sign of this weakness is the spread of foreclosures to prime borrowers with job losses, link NYT May 24, 2009. The Saudi king thinks that $75 is a fair price for oil. Current prices have taken oil to $60 a barrel, even as inventories remain strong with over 60 days of supply. No spikes like those in the past are realistic in this economic environment....

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US health care is not working. In UK and Canada the sytem is regulated in a way doctors and hospitals work togerhter to keep costs down. This is not happening in the US. insurers and doctors are pitted against each other and patients are in the middle. Insurers are also running about 70% of self funded employer plans that pay insurers a fee and are the responsibility of employers. Insurers then cut costs and do this for employers. Sel funded means employers pay cost of claims insurers merely get a fee. Patients are caught in the middle between Insurers and doctors/hospitals. The insurers cutting costs overbilling Medicare and skimping on payments, doctors trying to overcharge. Christopher Whaley, an associate professor at Brown University’s School of Public Health says- “We have a system of whack-a-mole, with providers trying to get paid and insurers trying to constrain costs—patients are caught in the middle,”  Obama exchanges to get people covered never thought through to come up with a better system and is a Band Aid. At some point the whole system ought to be scrapped and one built from scratch and designed to work so that hospitals and doctors provide best service at lower costs.   ...

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Rauhala cites an email from Apple CEO, Tim Cook, saying updates he gets about performance in China every morning show strong growth for Apple's business for July and August. China's retail sales are up 10.4% for the first 7 months of 2015, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The services sector as a whole showed growth of 8.4% in the first half of 2015, and it now makes up 49.5% of GDP, according to government statistics. Overall economic growth is about 4-5%, as the 7% official figure is considered overstated. Zhao Longkai, the executive director of the Beijing Univerisity Guanghua School of Management, says the retail sector should not be affected that much because losses are largely limited to a small number of wealthy investors, though some ordinary retail investors are affected, with overall stock market participation quite low compared to the U.S. and Europe. This and other expert opinion points to a situation of slower growth and debt overhang from the last stimulus, but not a strong connection between the stock market and the economy. The government's credibilty is affected by the failed intervention in July and this time during the sharp declines on August 24-25 the government is letting the market finds its own level, believing it will be better for markets and let them stabilize. ...