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A black supporter of Obama, Ms. Hart, tells him- " I'm exhausted of defending you, defending your administration. I've been told that I voted for a man who was going to change things in a meaningful way for the middle class." This encounter happened at an hour long town hall meeting on CNBC, which John Harwood moderated. Harwood asked Obama whether he was having difficulty connecting with average Americans because of attending Ivy League schools and spending part of his youth overseas. The incident reflects the frustration and disappointment felt by average Americans with the Obama administration and with Obama.

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Amy Goldstein spends time in Janesville, Wisconsin, in U.S. vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan's congressional district, and talks to local people to give a glimpse of life in Janesville after the closing of the GM plant and the 2008 financial crisis. She looks at the effects of long-term unemployment and cuts in services in communities such as Janesville as a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, while on leave from the national staff of the Washington Post. Ryan was first elected to the U.S. Congress in 1998, about a decade before the closing of the GM plant, and has been reelected to Congress each time for 7 consecutive terms. Goldstein says Janesville is typical of the communities across America that have suffered job losses- the loss of more jobs in manufacturing than any other sector, a greater impact of job loss for men than women, and a large impact on people who had less education but well paid jobs. As shown by the recent settlement for a Caterpillar plant in Joliet, Illinois, and across the U.S. manufacturing landscape, older workers who enjoyed higher wages are retiring with newer workers coming in at a lower wage, which is improving U.S. manufacturing competitiveness but also increasing the importance of education for higher paying jobs....

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Many of the towns with manufacturing plants in 1992 have switched sides from Democratic in 1992 to Republican in 2016. This explains Donald Trump's success - he tapped into discontent with Democrats who supported trade agreements such as TPP and did little to take up the cause of workers in areas hit hard by foreign manufacturing and imports. It also explains why Republicans are now favoring protectionism and Democrats supporting free trade, traditionally the opposite was true.   As the U.S. manufacturing workforce diminished in size from 15% of the U.S. workforce in 1992 to 8% in 2017, it shifted from cities with unions to blue collar suburbs. Factories in traditional Democratic places were closed down and these cities ceased to be manufacturing centres. Pittsburgh ceased to be a major manufacturing centre as manufacturing jobs declined by 37000, and service industries increased by 168,000. This resulted in the manufacturing heartland going through Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, through Ohio and the Carolinas and into the deep South. In these places whites without college education took up manufacturing jobs and identified with the Republican party's focus on social issues and abortion restrictions. So big is the shift that labor unions that represented 20% of manufacturing workers in 1992 represented only 9% of workers in 2017, according to economists at Georgia State University. Bill Clinton won 49% of working class counties where workers were at least 25% of the workforce. By 2016 the 860 such counties were down to 320 about two thirds now gone, and Mr. Trump took 95% of these counties. The change is dramatic. Voters that identify Democrat are now from cities, more educated, and less likely to be identified as blue collar. As the economies of these cities has shifted to finance and service industries, these residents have not accomodated the conservative cultural views. and have shifted to embracing more immigration, LGBT, gay rights on social issues. Before there was one mention in the 1992 Democratic platform of LGBT says the Journal, now there is 19 mention of rights for LGBT. Republicans have now shifted from privatizing Social Security, and now support some infrastructure spending. Republican platform now calls for free trade that is fair trade. And this has support from the left and the right. Factory owners and factory workers are united in their opposition to free trade rules that hit American factories. Union leaders say the Democratic Party left us. The Democratic Party gets more support and identifies more with Silicon Valley- Mr. Obama's TPP trade agreement benefitted Silicon Valley more than it did auto plants. The change happened over many years and Mr Trump capitalized on this. ...

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This leader in The Economist magazine says a hard Brexit of the sort announced by Theresa May at a Conservative Party conference is clearly bad for Britain. It also point out that half of British people voted to remain. It is not clear that voters have voted for a hard Brexit, a soft Brexit, or voter alienation with elites and effects of years of austerity since the financial crisis have helped tilt the vote to Brexit. It points out that the rhetoric may be damaging Britain's chance of negotiating a Brexit that limits damage to GDP, which the Treasury estimates to be nearly twice the loss in GDP if a member of a single market as compared to leaving it. British government leaders may be overestimating the willingness of leaders of France, Germany and other countries to make concessions. By talking up to their party base politicians such as May may be putting German and French leaders to also toughen their positions on free movement as an integral principle of the European Union, and consequently of membership in a single market. ...

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The first Democratic debate for the presidential election of 2016 gives Hillary Clinton a huge boost. Democratic voters find her to be more convincing in the debate than Sanders. Without Biden in the race a Oct 2015 ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Clinton draws 64 percent support among Democrats, and Sanders 25 percent, with O'Malley, Webb and Chafee less than 2%. Even on questions such as who "is closer to you" on the issues, who "understands the problems of people like you," Clinton beats Sanders by 53-36 percent and 51-37 percent in the poll. On honesty she is about even with Sanders. The careful low key approach getting a feel for the voters and their concerns appears to be paying off for Hillary Clinton where it really counts. The picture of Clinton in the media accounts is not affecting Democratic voters.

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Harold Meyerson poses some difficult questions for those who like Mitt Romney say America's choice is between the merit based society Romney sees and the "European social democratic vision." In Romney's words- "a merit-based opportunity society- an American-style society- where people earn their rewards based on their education, their work, their willingness to take risks and their dreams." Meyerson cites several studies to show that European societies today are more dynamic on several measures of performance than America's. In intergenerational mobility he cites a Brookings Institution study by Julia Isaacs, that shows incomes are three times more likely to remain the same in America compared to Denmark, Norway and Finland, and one and a half times more frequently than in Germany. Another measure evident from Germany's experience is the degree of union-company-government cooperation to worker retraining, corporate boards that have representatives of workers and management, the "kurzarbeit" program of retaining employees to smooth out impact of cyclical swings in the economy on workers and companies, and worker's willingness to show restraint on wages especially because management wages are not way out of line as in America. Meyerson reminds readers that the U.S. had a more merit based society in terms of upward intergenerational mobility, distribution of rewards of work between workers in manufacturing and service sectors and management, educational mobility with the G.I. bill, in the first 30 years after the Second World War. In a separate article in the Washington Post on Jan. 5, 2012, David Ignatius poses questions about the effects of globalization in shrivelling the middle class. The access to lower wage manufacturing in China, India, Mexico, and other countries, and lowering of wages in the U.S. to be competitive, was part of globalization. The two tier wage structure in the U.S. automobile industry is one example, making middle class wages a thing of the past. Globalization opened up new markets for American companies. Yet many of the gains in employment were made in emerging markets, as the example of GM's expansion in China showed, with automobile manufacturing expansion inside China....

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Obama's State of the Union address in 2014 focusses on increasing the minimum wage, reducing inequality and creating opportunities for the middle class. It marks a shift to doing things by executive order wherever possible to avoid protracted debates and delays by Congress.

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Nate Cohn of the NYT points out that based on the way in which moderate voters shifted to vote for Cruz in Wisconsin, especially in the eastern part of the state, this could be a turning point in the Cruz campaign. Cohn cites exit polls showing 29% of moderate voters went for Cruz in Wisconsin compared to 12% in Michigan and 15% in Illinois. In Madison's Dane County, a moderate area, Cruz had 38% of the vote. If this proves to be resilient then Trump could become the underdog in California, Indiana, Maryland, and Montana, with Pennsylvania becoming competitive, says Cohn. Reasons why this shift of moderate voters to Cruz could be a lasting shift are the results on March 15, 2016, with Cruz getting 40% of the vote in Missouri, and 30 percent in Illinois.

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The glass ceiling facing women as they face hurdles to reaching top management positions in China, India, Japan, S. Korea and other Asian countries. The need for proactive efforts and programs to develop women for top and middle management positions. The figures show women represented at levels as low as 1-3% at board level and senior management positions in China and Japan. Cultural attitudes, women's tendency not to push themselves forward when they feel they lack all the skills needed, and a lack of programs to develop women, lead to this lopsided situation where skills of talented women are not utilized.

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This report by Martin in the NYT points out that Ohio no longer plays a critical role in U.S. presidential elections. It was critical for a Bush win over Gore, and president Obama carried it by 2 points against Romney in 2012. It is critical for Trump to win. For Hillary Clinton other states are gaining importance as they better reflect the demographic changes in the U.S. and the mix with minorities- states such as Georgia, N. Carolina, Colorado and Florida. Ohio has not seen an influx of Hispanics as other states, and is now more white, more evangelical voters, and reflects a mix that was prevalent earlier. 

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Macron received 27% of the vote to 24% for Le Pen and 21.7% for Melenchon. Pecresse of the Republicans 4.7% and Zemmour on the far right at 7%.  If no candidate wins 50% of the vote there is a runoff on April 24  of the voters who voted for other smaller parties and how voters for former socialist candidate Melenchon respond in the runoff. French departments in the Caribbean, Atlantic and Pacific can vote. There are also 1.4 million overseas voters. Which all adds to an interesting mix that these Guardian color coded graphics provide an insight into to show voter sentiment in 2022. Le Pen continues to draw support from the northeast, southeast around Marseille, and rural regions in east and south with Zemmour drawing away some far right voters in the Marseille region. Some of these areas suffered as manufacturing shifted to China, as in the industrial midwest of the US. Some of this is also communities involved in the Yellow Vest protests about cost of living for working class voters. Macron draws support from the western and south west regions around the cities of Toulouse, Bordeaux, Lyon, and affluent areas of Paris that have gained during the Tech and advanced industrial revolution. This also includes rural areas. Melenchon as former socialist candidate draws support from less affluent suburbs of Paris and all parts of the country looking for a shift from power concentrated in the presidency. About 13.2% of the vote is for smaller parties,  showing the kind of fragmentation that happened also in Germany as the main parties the Socialists and the Republicans lost significant numbers of voters. Valerie Pecresse of Sarkozy's Republicans received only 4.7%, showing severe losses for the main parties. ...

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This WSJ editorial on March 7 with Cruz winning in Maine and Kansas with wide margins, and Trump winning narrowly by 3.6% in Louisiana and in Kentucky, says that the Cruz win in Maine shows he could win in other states. It points out that Trump actually lost in Louisiana with those who voted on election day, that early voters made a difference. As Trump gets not just media attention on which he thrives, but also close scrutiny in media the situation appears to be changing. The WSJ calls for Trump to release his tax returns, particularly important in Trump's situations says the Journal because of his flamboyant statements about competence as a wealthy businessman. Also a factor in the elections in March will be how much Trump spends on ads as he has spent little so far.

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Mark Sanford, Republican Governor of South Carolina, cites Donald Trump in May 2014 on releasing tax returns. At the time Trump is quoted as saying: "If I run for office, I will release my tax returns, absolutely, I would love that." Sanford says he released his tax returns, and Mike Spence, the Republican vice presidential candidate has released his tax returns, and calls on Trump to release his returns as promised. Hillary Clinton has released her tax returns, which show she paid 34% of income in taxes. Sanford says it is important information both for transparency in the political process and in giving voters an opportunity to evaluate those who want to govern the country. He also says that this is the reason a banker asks for tax returns before making a loan, that talking is'nt enough tax returns tell the real story,  and the reason why this is a precedent too important to be broken in 2016. This has become increasingly important in this election year with the public expecting corporations and wealthy individuals to pay their fair share of taxes, so that programs to aid workers left behind during the recession, provide job retraining, finance the infrastructure that will create new jobs, provide access to college for working class and poor, require adequate government revenues. ...

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A health care practitioner says the real problem is the high cost of medical care in the U.S. when compared to other countries. She points out that the Obama bill in 2008 did not take effective steps to bring down the cost of health care before enacting legislation to cover the uninsured, leading to higher premiums for the middle class. The link between healthcare and profits is seen as the main problem. 

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A strong U.S. jobs report in July with 255,000 new jobs, unemployment at 4.9%, provides positive sentiment going forward. The Federal Reserve is likely to be wary of raising rates because businesses are hiring but are not making the investments needed to spur economic growth, which remains at about 1%. The labor force participation rate is now at 62.8%. The measure of unemployment and underemployment shows a better picture of how different age groups are faring including the 25-54 years age group- this is at 9.7% in July 2016, it was 9.6% in June 2016. This measure shows those working part time because they cannot find a full time job. The market today is stronger for those with the right job skills, but not across the spectrum for all Americans, only setting the stage for further progress and increasing investment as confidence improves.

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Adam Bryant talks to 4 women executives about the problems women face in taking up higher management positions. One of the problems addressed directly and at length by the head of Pfizer Nutrition, Amy Schulman, is what she calls "the dutiful daughter," doing what is expected of you. This is also described as a serious problem for women executives in Asia by Riva Gold, where women not having 100% of the skills for a higher management job will step back, whereas men with only 50% of the skills step forward. Schulman says women have to be well prepared and have a good grasp of the subject matter, have acquired experience, and having done that they need to make their voice heard. Any anxieties about not getting it just right, or asking the question about whether "she belongs" need to be left behind. The leaders of companies need to create the environment in which biases and assumptions about women in the workplace do not hinder getting a mix of different voices in the corporation, which can only benefit from that diversity of people and styles. Another point she makes is that women have to spend their political capital, to stand up for colleagues and the team where appropriate, for principles that are significant, to be build credibility and win credit. ...

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Bernie Sanders announces his support for Hillary Clinton as nominee of the Democratic Party after a long season of bruising primaries. The effort is now to heal the divisions in the Democratic Party. Hillary Clinton has adopted some parts of the Sanders agenda including some aspects of providing tution free education in public colleges. Both Hillary and Bernie appeared at a joint rally in New Hampshire. Sanders said that at the Democratic Platform Committee ending on July 10, 2016, the two had come together on setting a platform that he believes is the most progressive ever for the Democratic Party.

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This editorial in the WSJ argues against Trade Representative Lighthizer's move to increase the percentage of North American content in a vehicle so that it creates more jobs. Currently Nafta rules require 62.5% of a duty free vehicle be made in North America. Lighthizer wants to lower the content coming from Asia or Europe. This is not favored by Canada and Mexico and it makes Mexico less competitive than it is now.

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Administrative costs are one of the key reasons tution costs have increased to excessive proportions in the U.S., putting a heavy burden on the middle class, reducing social mobility that is an important aspect of postwar progress in Europe and the U.S. by putting college out of reach for millions of young people. This also creates a heavy debt burden for young people- U.S. student loan debt passed $1 trillion in 2012- who are less likely to buy a first home because of years needed to repay student loans. The market pressures to control costs do not exist in the same way as industries such as automobiles, because of the demand for college education in a modern globalized economy. Douglas Belkin and Scott Thurm have provided an indepth look at the University of Minnesota to show the spending surge and internal tendencies for faculty and bureaucracy to increase spending on hiring, building expansion to compete with other schools, and salaries to support their own within the college and university system, with a passive student community, and passive parent community, and lack of other outside pressures. Tution and fees for state residents doubled in the last decade at the University of Minnesota to $13,524. The figures tell the story- total debt with borrowing for building construction at U.S. 4 year public colleges tripled to $88 billion between 2002 and 2011, according to the Department of Education. Debt servicing costs doubled at the University of Minnesota to $106 million in that period. Minnesota's government provided $570 million for university operations in 2011, same as 2003-2004 school year even with inflation and 10% higher student enrollment. Yet analysis by the Department of Education and the Wall Street Journal shows in that period the spending increased disproportionately compared to inflation, student enrollment and teaching activity, with little restraint. WSJ analysis showed the University of Minnesota system added 1000 administrators between 2001-2011, with administration hires increasing 37%, double the increase in the students and double that of teachers. During that period the number of employees to manage people, programs and regulations went up 50% faster than the number of instructors, according to the Department of Education. Bureau of Labor Statistics cites this as the reason tution costs went up faster than health care costs. The 19,000 employee payroll at the University of Minnesota means one employee for three and half students. The new university president in 2011, Eric Kaler, interviewed by WSJ's Belkin and Thurm, says no one knew what it cost to run the school when he started....