LyrArc Article Gist
Considering the costs of obesity and the nature of the problem spread across the whole population of the U.S., only a nationwide effort will work, according to a consensus of experts in a report by the Institute of Medicine.

LyrArc Article Gist
Phased retirement is getting greater acceptance from management in the US. In 2021 23% of employers had these arrangements up from 16% in 2016, according to the Society for Human Resources Management. Of this 8% have phased retirement on a formal basis, and 15% have this on an informal ad hoc basis. Human resource experts say that companies should leverage the voice of experience rather than lose this valuable resource with shift from full time to 100% retirement in one move.

A survey by Mercer LLC of executives worldwide show 38% of executives saying they offer phased retirement, which show a definite trend in favor of phased retirement in 2022. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Indian exports to China declined in the covid pandemic years when China experienced little or no growth. This has worsened the trade deficit, yet this is temporary. Imports have worsened with Chinese dumping of products into the country. This should not alter India's policy of building close trade and investment relations with the US and the European Union as its main partners. This is also consistent with the prime minister's Atman Nirbhar Bharat policy. The author of this report in Hindustan Times says policy should integrate India with China and Factory Asia, yet this ignores India's growth trajectory as it is only now building up momentum and will for the next decade see the kind of growth Japan and China made in their peak growth period, even as China slows down and forms a smaller part of the global supply chain. US policy is for India to form the major part of the supply chain replacing China at some point as the leading supplier, even though it is moving gradually to get there. India should make policy as Modi has done for 2030, then 2047, and reach its own potential acting in concert with US and EU. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Gas supplies are so tightly balanced that minor glitches can create a jump in gas prices and electricity bills, says this report in WSJ. There is no backup supply with about 2 million barrels of oil gas equivalent knocked out because of Ukraine war. Supply is 4080 billion cubic metres of gas worldwide and demand 4070, so tight. By comparison oil supplies have backup and are more stable gpoing up only 6% for Brent crude this week of Israeli conflict. Even the stoppage such as at the Tamar offshore gas field west of Haifa, Israel or a Baltic sea gas pipeline explosion in Finland can have an effect. Gas prices benchmark was up 40% during the Israel Gaza war, by comparison oil is relatively stable with Brent crude rising 6%. Iran exports 3.1 million barrels a day, the US to keep prices stable has not strictly imposed sanctions on Iranian oil.

LyrArc Article Gist
The asymptomatic coronavirus infected people are a large fraction of the people with coronavirus. This is a huge problem as these people unaware of the danger are unwittingly spreading the virus. This is one of the most unusual aspects of this virus compared to other virus epidemics, and why it has become so dangerous. It is also why social distancing alone is not enough. Strict enforcement of stay at home orders by public health authorites, state and federal governments is essential as the unwitting spread by asymptomatic people who are not following the required guidelines is a huge problem.  Even as the public now calls for stricter action the lax behaviours in March in U.S. Britain, France, Germany, and in Italy in February, have created a population of infected people that acts as a backlog for testing, creating a surge in April. One of the novel features of this public health crisis is that lax behaviours stemming from a lack of understanding of the severe contagiousness of the coronavirus is making it a larger crisis on a scale not encountered before.  The contamination potential of this virus is only now being tackled with experts in fluid dynamics at labs such as the MIT Lab in the U.S. looking into how it can contaminate environments, as shown on BBC News.  With pieces of the contamination puzzle only now being put together. Heeding public health expert warnings and guidelines is all the more essential for this reason. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Rappaport of the NYT asks how it is possible that the U.S. Treasury is critical of the EU Commission's ruling that Apple pay back $13 billion in taxes because of its low tax rate of .005% in Europe, when Treasury is strongly critical of tax avoidance. The negligible tax by Ireland, base of Apple operations, is seen as a state subsidy not available to competitors. It also, as the EU Commission says, does not correspond to economic reality because the revenues are mostly made outside Ireland. An arrangement that is basically a strategy of tax avoidance. Today the leading candidates for president, Trump and Clinton, the major parties, and Congress, all are critical of tax avoidance strategies which deprive Treasury of much needed revenues. Restoring upward mobility is a priority today and programs to provide tution free access to public colleges, healthcare access, and infrastructure development, require public funding. Then why is the U.S.Treasury critical of the EU ruling? It is because Treasury sees this as money that should be coming to Treasury not the EU. However Treasury has failed to make this clear. The Financial Accountability and Corporate Transparency Coalition's Clark Gascoigne, calls it very ironic. And other experts say the money would not be coming to the U.S. anyway unless a low tax rate induces Apple to repatriate profits to the U.S. One expert calls it hypocritical. Senator Schumer says he agrees with Paul Ryan that tax legislation for a low tax rate for repatriation of profits back to the U.S. should be the next step, so that an infrastructure fund can be setup. Senator Levin and transparency advocates sees the EU action as normal and to be expected, as the anti-establishment sentiment today comes from such dealings that create the impression that the system is rigged in favor of some corporations. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Greg Ip of the WSJ provides this exceptional report offering readers remarkable clarity on what the Republican Tax Law does- its high and low points.  High Points 1. It reduces the corporate tax rate to bring it in line with other advanced industrialized countries. The corporate tax rate in Germany and Japan is 30%, in the UK it is 19%. For 5 years businesses can write off capital equipment immediately instead of depreciating over a couple of years. This could boost investment and growth. 2.  The law takes aim at deductions that led to distortions. It limits the mortgage interest deduction, and caps the deduction for state and local taxes. This removes the incentive to pay more for homes that exacerbated the housing crisis in 2008. The Alternative Minimum Tax is largely removed. The Low Points 1. The biggest drawback is that lawmakers did not properly fund the tax cuts. Of the 10 costliest tax breaks nine were not touched, including employer health insurance, retirement savings, capital gains. Only the state and local taxes deduction was reduced. And a new tax deduction  was created, a 20% tax deduction for small business (proprietors and partnerships) paying taxes on their individual tax returns. Taxes on the wealthy or value added taxes, reducing tax breaks, is how other advanced industrialized countries paid for the corporate tax cuts, but did not happen here. Additional economic growth  to generate added tax revenues is the way Republicans in Congress say this is funded. Yet this is a questionable assumption as Britain reduced the corporate tax rate to 19% without seeing a surge in economic growth, as Greg Ip pointed out in an earlier WSJ article. At best the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates $500 billion over a decade in added revenues from added growth leaving $1 trillion to be added to the deficit. The WhartonPenn Budget Model (WPBM) estimates only $140 to $367 bill from the additional economic growth resulting in added tax revenues. Under this model only 0.03 to 0.08 percent added U.S. economic growth per year is expected from the Republican Tax Cuts. Such a situation would be bad  for the U.S. as the gradual improvement in Debt to GDP ratio to 78% following the financial crisis of 2008 would be sharply reversed taking the ratio to 97% by 2027. An unsustainable trajectory which will require tax increases in a few years and hurt investment in education, health and infrastructure into the future. This is what worries many experts most on both sides of the political spectrum today about what the Republican Congress has pushed through for a legislative "victory." This is why experts believe this is not serious tax reform and will require a new effort after 2019.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Make no mistake president Biden is saying it is America's, and India's turn to reinvent the semiconductor industry with government capital support, and with the zeal and inventive capabilities of the US and India. This interview by Ben Cohen gives a glimpse of how Morris Chang now 92 years sees the founding of Taiwan Semiconductor in 1985 in retrospect in 2024. He talks about his early life in the US as an immigrant from China after 1949 and his work at Texas Instruments learning about the semiconductor industry. In the 1980's Japan was the rising industrial nation in semiconductors. By 1985 Intel which dominated memory chips faced challenges in quality and cost and cheap capital from Japanese capital markets encouraging exports. By 1988 Japan took over the market. What Morris Chang is not telling is that Chang already had the Japanese example in 1985. If Japan could do it on all three fronts quality, cheap capital with government assistance, and ten year effort Chang and Taiwan could do this and accomplished this which it has done. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Each year the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore convenes to bring together Asian prime ministers, defense ministers, experts and journalists to discuss issues relating to Asia such as tensions on the Korean peninsula, terrorism, nuclear proliferation. In previous years the keynote address was given by prime ministers of Japan, Singapore, Australia, Thailand. The 2018 keynote was given by prime minister Narendra Modi of India. U.S. Defense minister James Mattis in his address described the free and open approach of the U.S. in its Indo-Pacific strategy contrasting it with China's policies. In Modi's address the key pieces of the Indian approach were outlined- a free open and inclusive space "from the shores of Africa to the shores of America," that includes the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Modi called Indo-Pacific not a strategy or a exclusive club, but a principle of freedom on the world's oceans based on rules and norms, respect for international law including for overflight and navigation.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Beyond the waste of natural gas when it is flared in areas lacking ways to store and transport small amounts of gas there is the issue of environmental degradation. Large quantities of natural gas in the Permian basin and North Dakota are simply burned to make way for oil production. It is simply uneconomical to transport it to users. Yet this is an issue not just of waste but of the environment too. Flaring of natural gas near oil wells is causing 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, say experts. 

In places like Iraq this is a problem because of frequent power shortages in the country. Russia, Iran, Iraq and the U.S burn the natural gas near oil wells that is equivalent to the gas used in France, Germany, Belgium combined. In eastern Siberia or in the Sahara desert, North Dakota,  this is in the wilderness areas far from end markets.

LyrArc Article Gist
Each year the amount of forestedd land that is cleared- mainly for cattle needing pasture land- releases the equivalent of greenhouse gas emissions of 600 million cars. Since 1961 methane gas emissions from cattle has increased significantly. This is one of the findings in a report published by 100 climate change experts for a UN body. Loss of peatlands in places like Indonesia is also a problem.  A half a billion people already live in desert. And land is being lost a hundred times faster than it is forming due to changes in weather patterns.  People migrate when weather fails as has happened for central American farmers migrating to the U.S. creating social and political problems in North America. A major issue in climate change is agriculture.  Increasing the productivity of land, reducing food wasted, persuading more people to eat healthy vegetables and less meat, reducing land lost to desertification, erosion and seas, are all actions that can be taken now say these 100 experts from 52 countries meeting in Geneva. The IPCC or Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change does these reports to give people some idea of what actions to take to reduce the impact of warming that threatens livelihoods of millions especially in Africa and India, as well as other parts of Asia and Latin America. Developed countries are likely to feel the impact from migration which is dividing their societies politically and socially. As one expert from Aberdeen puts it people don't just stay where they are when drought conditions hit their areas, they migrate. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The last time the FBI involved itself in elections was with Edgar Hoover in the election between Harry Truman and Dewey for U.S. president in the 1948 election, when Hoover made clandestine efforts. One Georgetown scholar says it may be an unfair comparison for Comey, but it raises questions about his bringing up the email inquiry a week before the election. Other experts say it may be a sort of moral hubris of Comey that led him to this. An expert at New York University School of Law, Mr. Gillers, is cited by NYT. Gillers says the letter to Congress was a second or third mistake to cover up a previous mistake, that Comey should not have made repeated public statements, not the statement criticizing Hillary Clinton about the email practices, not writing a letter to Congress a week before the election. Michael Chertoff, a Republican who led the criminal division of the Justice Department under Bush, says Comey violated longstanding Justice Department rules and practices in July and this week, and provided fodder for all kinds of speculation.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Studies by Mexico's Interior Ministry show that 62% of the $23 billion in remittances to Mexico by Mexicans living in the U.S. go to the lower middle class. As migration to the U.S. diminishes to zero Mexicans who are illegal aliens in the U.S. are returning to Mexico as small entrepreneurs using earnigs made in the U.S.. This offers them a chance for upward mobility and a return to families that they never had in the U.S., and is aiding the growth of a Mexican middle class. About 12 million Mexicans, or 15% of Mexico's labor force lives legally or illegally in the U.S., according to the Pew Hispanic Center. Experts say that in the first 3-5 years remittances go to help their families, after 7 years the money goes into savings and investment fueling growth of small towns such as Santa Maria in Mexico. About half of Mexico's 112 million people have family living in the U.S., which is having an influence on atttitudes and ways of thinking of the lower middle class that emigrated to the U.S.and is now returning to the country. Other factors are reinforcing the trends such as the lower price of consumer goods with the entry of retailers such as Wal-Mart and Costco into Mexico. Nestle, P&G, and Unilever, all sell at low price points in Mexico. The government's effort to setup a basic safety net subsidizing schooling, health care and food has also helped in this direction. Rapid change in demographics in all of Latin America, including Mexico with a shift to smaller families is creating new opportunities to invest in children for better educational opportunities and working lives....

LyrArc Article Gist
For the first time since 1998, Russia, which has relied on large foreign exchange reserves from oil exports, has issued new sovereign debt. Russia issued $2 billion in five year bonds at 3.625% at a risk premium of 1.25% over U.S. Treasurys. And $3.5 billion in 10 year bonds at 5% with a risk premium of 1.35% over comparable Treasurys. In 2010 Russia expects a deficit of 6.8% of GDP.

LyrArc Article Gist
The unemployment rate drops to 7.8% from 8.1% in September according to the Labor Dept. The decline partly comes from people taking part time jobs because they are unable to find full time work. The establishment survey shows 104,000 jobs added in the private sector in September, and revises the figures for July and August to show 86,000 additional jobs created. Of the 104,000 jobs added, jobs increased in health care and transportation. Government added 10,000 jobs. Manufacturing jobs declined by 16,000, a cause for concern. A more accurate measure of unemployment is the underutilization of labor called U-6 by experts, this includes part time workers who would prefer to work full time- this has remained at 14.7% for Sept. 2012. The overall picture is that the job market remains sluggish. Because Labor Department numbers are prone to revision this could change in coming months. The slowing economy in China with the new stimulus in China coming in at one eighth the size of the old stimulus (1 trillion yuan over 4 years compared to 4 trillion yuan over 2 years 2009-2010) because of inflation concerns and risks of aggravating a property bubble, and the declining growth in the eurozone- France with zero growth in 2013 and Germany at 0.9%, Italy and Spain declining growth- means the prospects for U.S. economic growth will be lower in 2013. U.S. GDP growth was 1.3% in the second quarter according to the Commerce Department, and Macroeconomic Advisors predicts GDP growth of 1.5% in the third quarter in downward revisions. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
For Deere 80% of production of farm tractors is in US and 75% of suppliers in US. It is working on ways to tackle tariffs impact which is about $500 million. Its plan is to raise prices 2-4%. Deere has to tackle the imports from Germany of midsize tractors and its exports to Europe which also face tariffs. Other production is in Mexico and China.

LyrArc Article Gist
A grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini runs for election in 2016 to the Assembly of Experts council which selects the next Ayatollah. Ruhollah Khomeini, a cleric, is seen as a moderate who supports prime minister Rouhani's efforts to forge closer ties with the U.S. and Europe.

LyrArc Article Gist
Declining sales in 2015 at Subway sandwich chain stores and lower profits for franchise owners, following overexpansion. Sales at U.S. Subway chain stores declined by 3.3% to $11.9 billion, acccording to Technomic Inc. There are about 27,000 Subway stores in the U.S. compared to 14,300 McDonald's stores, and the saturation appears to be hurting sales and profits, say experts. The system setup by Doctor's Inc. which started Subway incentivizes expansion.

LyrArc Article Gist
Jon Gertner makes several critical points about the importance of supporting and investing in manufacturing. The U.S. private sector in new industries such as alternative energy, and electric cars is competing not just with the private sector in Germany, S. Korea or Japan. It is competing with the governments of these countries which are investing heavily to build innovation and jobs in their home countries. Innovation, design and manufacturing are woven together in these new industries in a manner that is different from the iPhone/ iPad/ Search algorithms /Facebook software type industries dominated by names such as Apple, Google and Facebook. The software industries are the opposite of jobs intensive industries with Facebook having 2000 employees and Google having 29,000 employees. By comparison the lithium battery industry could generate over 62,000 jobs in the next 10 years, and the electric car industry as a whole with its supplier networks could generate much larger numbers of jobs. Because of the advanced technology involved these are good well paying jobs. The finance industry in the U.S. is attracted to the quick returns in the software related fields, leaving a gap for the American government to fill a role nurturing these industries. This would be similiar to the manner that the German and Japanese governments do working with their own private sector. The private sector in the U.S. needs only the early nurturing and can operate on its own by innovating its way to competitiveness in manufacturing and cost after the early years. Because of missteps in failing to support manufacturing in the U.S., the U.S. may have to import some of the technology from countries such as Japan and S.Korea to make up for these missteps. This is happening in the lithium ion battery manufacturing technology and facilities, which experts say is being successfully imported from these countries to the U.S.. The Obama administration has provided $2.5 billion dollars from the stimulus investments to support projects of 30 companies operating in the advanced battery technology field. This includes companies such as A123 Systems and LG Chem Power in Michigan. As a result of these efforts the Department of Energy estimates that by 2015 the U.S. will have the capacity to manufacture 40% of the world production of lithium batteries for the autombile industry. In 2009 the U.S. had capacity to manufacture 2% of the batteries....

LyrArc Article Gist
Greg Ip provides useful insights into the nature of the economic recovery in Britain compared to the U.S. by 2015. The recovery in Britain has done better than in the U.S. in job creation, but has lagged behind in productivity gains. The labor force participation rate is 72% in Britain compared to 68% in the U.S., going back up to 2007 levels in Britain, whereas in the U.S. it has steadily declined with some older working class Americans too discouraged to look for work and left behind. Stagnant wage growth is a major issue in Britain, more so than in the U.S. where wage growth is slow. Economic austerity is not the main cause of the economic difficulties as the coalition government of prime minister Cameron relaxed earlier goals for austerity by 2012 with tax revenues and growth below forecasts. The structural budget deficit has been reduced by 6.6% of GDP since the peak, and the Office of Budget Responsibility estimates the UK economy was 1.5%-2% smaller by 2013 because of the austerity policies. Britain was also affected by the eurozone crisis to a larger degree than the U.S. Productivity remains a long term challenge- with needed investments in housing, education and infrastructure, improved lending for new business, and higher tech improvement exports....

LyrArc Article Gist
New legislation introduced in the U.S. Congress by Senators Orrin Hatch and Ron Wyden giving fast track and trade promotion authority to president Obama faces intense opposition from Democratic Party members of Congress. Only about a dozen House Democrats are considered to be supporting the legislation. Senator Schumer says "I don't believe in these agreements anymore, I've changed." Senator Warren on the left opposes the legislation. Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania says the legislation "as paving the way for another Nafta style deal that costs jobs." The deal if it passes the Senate, would face Republican opposition in the House where 50 or more Republicans are reported to be against the fast track approach and giving too much authority to president Obama without Congressional input. Fast track legislation would allow free trade pacts such as TPP to pass Congress without amendments or procedural delays. Labor groups and auto, other manufacturing companies, oppose the legislation because of the impact on manufacturing, West Coast groups in IT industries favor the legislation. Projections made by Petri, Plummer and Zhao at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, show the impact of Trans Pacific Pact (TPP) free trade pact would be $109 billion in added manufacturing imports to the U.S. to 2025 and $ 53 billion in exports, a net U.S. unfavorable of $56 billion. For IT and services sector the added U.S. exports to 2025 are projected at $42 billion and imports at $8 billion, for net $34 billion. U.S. favorable. Because of the dominant position of the U.S. in IT how much of this $42 billion might still happen without TPP. Other societal impacts also figure in the discussion, such as which sector needs the largest help and impacts the largest number of Americans for a sustained economic recovery in the future. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Greg Ip says in WSJ that Biden's $2 trillion Families and Workers Plan (Build Back Better) should be moved forward or restrained, not on the basis of its trivial or secondary effect on inflation, but on its main goal of expanding a torn social safety net.That one vote in the Senate in 50-50 US Senate, that of Mr. Manchin is holding it back, should be set out in the clearest terms- that Mr. Manchin is not comfortable with repairing a torn social safety net to the level Mr. Biden is.  Greg Ip points out that Moody's and other experts see the same effects on inflation with or without the plan which is over ten years. He says besides the supply chain bottlenecks that would ease at some point, inflation would be kept close to 2% target by Powell at the US central bank, the Fed. It is all about how the US plans renewal of its economy from this pandemic and from the crises past, knowing that it has learned the lessons along the way, so that the economy works for all the people and builds America's strength in the world- pointing to a brighter future for all and a strong America. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Savings for China and Japan by increasing oil imports at low prices could amount to about 1% of the economy for each country. Japan imports of oil are one tenth of total imports, and amount to $75 billion. At prices half of what they were before coronavirus the savings are about $40 billion a year. This will offset some of the drop in economic growth of about 3% in the year ending March 2021.

For countries where the coronavirus has been relatively controlled with manufacturing and infrastructure projects ready to go ahead the benefit is greatest. China expects to see about 7% decline in GDP in the first quarter resulting in minimal growth for the year as long as export markets in the U.S. and Europe remain weak. For India it depends on how long the lockdown continues and how quickly economic activity can resume under new conditions. 

LyrArc Article Gist
BBC's Mark Tullly reflects on the period of coverage from 1962-1994 of South Asia. He says of Indira Gandhi that she took the democratic process out of the Indian National Congress party, and set up her sons as future leaders that was undemocratic. Here he reflects on that period in an intervew with the BBC after he left the BBC.  He has deep connections to the Indian period after 1800 as his great grand father on his mothers side was around 1840 in a part of Uttar Pradesh where British planters had farmers plant opium that would later be bought by planters for export. This coincides with the period when Britain in Hong Kong traded in opium as part of British trading in the emerging colonial culture British Empire. There is mixed legacy for Britain in India and China. The history of the Opium Wars in the 1850's and opening up of colonial ports ended with the 1900's revolution and the emergence of the CCP in China by 1950. In India the legacy was mixed bringing together this part of Asia into a new nation and bringing parliamentary traditions of Britain that provided the basis for good governance.  Tully is a softspoken thoughtful Englishman who revolted against British classical education in his youth and studied history and religion at Cambridge, made friends with the future bishops of Canterbury and Lincoln at Cambridge. He is not the Englishman of the Empire as his fondest memories are of the servants verandahs on the bungalows of Britishers and the smoke from their quarters, and the language. So it is a thoughtful view that he gives of the undemocratic nature of Indira Gandhi and mismanagement of the economy that could have changed if India had gone in a different direction under other leaders in the the 1990's. Why is this significant? China's modernization drive started in the 1990's. India's by the undemocratic nature and mismanagement under Indira Gandhi did not start its modernization till 2010, about 20 years after China, opening up a huge gap that is only now being corrected leading to problems for world security, US security, European security and Indian security. And delaying the aspirations of development of 1.4 billion people for 2 decades. Vikshit Bharat cannot come fast enough for both Merz in Germany and Leyen at the European Union, who last week and this week visit Ahmedabad and India for the Kite festival and for Republic Day 2026. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Canada is joining a club of nations that are dependent on exports of raw materials to China for growth- Australia, Brazil, Malaysia and Peru. This means that Canada's central bank takes its cues from demand in China, India, Korea and other emerging economies when it sets rates. With Canada's growth at around 3.1% in 2010, Canada's central bank is expected to increase rates gradually even as the U.S. keeps its rates low.