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Brexit and headwinds ahead with higher inflation, skepticism inside the City and probabilities of a "disorderly break"
01/17/2017
Linked Articles
Why Brexit is still undefined - BBC News
BBC News 01/17/2017
Mark Carney 'plans to keep Britain in EU single market until 2021', putting Bank of England on collision course with Theresa May over Brexit termsThe Telegraph 11/27/2016
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
Ban on election advertising on commercial television and radio in Britain and strict limits of $29.5 million for each party in general elections- contrast with the U.S.
05/02/2015
Britain disproves the popular belief that an ever upward trajectory for election spending is inevitable. The 2010 general election in Britain cost half that of the 1880 general election in 2002 prices, say researchers. In the U.S. spending has increased to the point where candidates may be spending more time fund raising than talking about the issues. The 2016 presidential election in the U.S. is estimated to lead to $10 billion in spending. India, Brazil, and other developing countries face a similar situation.
Linked Articles
Britain’s Campaign Finance Laws Leave Parties With Idle Money
New York Times 05/04/2015
F.E.C. Can’t Curb 2016 Election Abuse, Commission Chief SaysNew York Times 05/02/2015
Ukraine and the Minsk 2 agreement of Feb. 2015- (2) German and Italian views on implementation by June 2015
02/11/2015
Linked Articles
Hardening of Positions Undercuts Ukraine Peace Accord
New York Times 06/04/2015
In Ukraine, It’s Putin’s GameNew York Times 02/11/2015
Declining inflation and interest rate cuts in India in 2015
01/14/2015
Linked Articles
India’s Inflation Fight Pays Early Dividend
Wall Street Journal 01/16/2015
Suddenly, India Cuts Interest RatesNew York Times 01/14/2015
The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
The failure of Maliki to reduce sectarianism in Iraq, and the failure of the Obama administration's Middle East policy, lead to reversal of years of effort in Iraq
08/15/2014
WSJ reporter Bradley talks to Maliki's aides who say he is only interested in personal power not the future of Iraq. Gen. James Jones, National Security Advisor to U.S. president Obama 2009-2010, says Maliki's corrupt policies and using increased sectarian conflict to further personal power, and president Obama's failure to act in Syria when chemical weapons were used as well as not maintaining a training presence after the withdrawal, are both responsible for the summer 2014 collapse in Iraq.
Linked Articles
How to Save Iraq and Honor American Sacrifice
Wall Street Journal 08/15/2014
Iraq Crisis: Nouri al-Maliki QuitsWall Street Journal 08/15/2014
U.S. Federal Reserve policy to leave bond buying tapering unchanged and the lower U.S. growth from adverse weather in 4th quarter 2013-1st quarter 2014
02/28/2014
Yellen leaves Fed policy on the same course as lower growth is attributed to bad weather in Feb. 2014.
Linked Articles
Yellen Sticks to Plan Amid Weather Doubts
Wall Street Journal 02/28/2014
That 2014 Growth Breakout? Not Looking LikelyWall Street Journal 03/02/2014
Lagarde on IMF reforms to give more voting power to China, S. Korea, Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, and the U.S. position
02/14/2014
Linked Articles
Congress Can Help the U.S. By Reforming The IMF
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2014
Obama Moves to Fill International Economics PostsWall Street Journal 02/14/2014
China's steadily growing automobile market in 2014-2015 (2)- the 49% increase in SUV sales in 2013 over 2012
12/16/2013
Ford Motor's early push into SUV's in China is helping it catchup with GM and Toyota.
Linked Articles
Renault to Focus on Building SUVs in China
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2013
Ford's SUVs Propel Its China GainsWall Street Journal 04/08/2014
Putin and the excessive cost of the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics in Russia approaching $51 billion
11/05/2013
The need for infrastructure spending in other parts of Russia, for R&D development and making the transition away from dependence on oil revenues, as competing needs for capital. This also happens as currency values are declining for emerging markets and it is increasingly difficult to attract foreign investment in 2014, leading to slowing growth with high inflation.
Linked Articles
Putin's Olympian Construction Zone
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
Putin’s Olympic Fever DreamNew York Times 01/22/2014
Russia and fears of stagflation (low growth and high inflation) in 2014-2015
09/19/2013
Linked Articles
Russia Looks to Borrow to Plug Funding Gap
Wall Street Journal 09/19/2013
Russia Prepared to Let Ruble SlideWall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Governor Jerry Brown of California and former U.S. Fed chairman Volcker- reviving the great tradition of public service in the U.S.
05/29/2013
The public interest is critical for a nation to advance and create improvement. A vigorous tradition of public service is essential for the public interest to be preserved. It also commands the highest respect with its common sense approach setting aside ideologies, with its integrity, character and humility.
Linked Articles
Jerry Brown is spending more on ballot measures than on his own campaign - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/24/2014
Volcker Plans to Restore Faith in GovernmentNew York Times 05/29/2013
British inflation following Brexit (1)
01/17/2017
Linked Articles
UK inflation hits two-year high in November as economists warn of higher prices to come
The Telegraph 12/13/2016
Apple App Store prices rise in UK, India and Turkey - BBC NewsBBC News 01/17/2017
Ukraine and the Minsk 2 agreement of Feb. 2015- (1) the U.S. and Russian views on implementation by June 2015
06/06/2015
Linked Articles
Putin Urges Western Pressure on Ukraine in Peace Effort
New York Times 06/06/2015
Defense Chief: Subversion, ‘Big Lie’ Are in Russia’s ArsenalWall Street Journal 06/06/2015
How the NASDAQ in 2015 has changed since 2000, and the change in the interest rate environment and inflation- critical factors in the new investment environment of 2015
04/24/2015
Linked Articles
Why This Old Bull Market May Not Be Ready to Die
Wall Street Journal 04/26/2015
The New Nasdaq Record, Set By a New NasdaqWall Street Journal 04/24/2015
Lt. Gen "Ben" Hodges, Commander U.S. Army in Europe, on the Russian moves towards Mariupol in eastern Ukraine in Feb. 2015
02/08/2015
Ben Hodges describes the Russian threat to peace in Eastern Europe under president Putin and the need for U.S. preparedness.
Linked Articles
The View From NATO’s Russian Front
Wall Street Journal 02/09/2015
Desperation and Destruction in Contested Ukraine CityNew York Times 02/08/2015
Looking back at Hong Kong and China today and yesterday- China in 1842 and in 1945, nationalism and commercial interests of foreign powers
01/09/2015
A wariness with foreign powers in China stems from the influences left behind from the British commercial interests and the Japanese invasion of China. Compared to that period, the period of collaboration on an equal footing and playing field is is a short and recent one that has taken place for just three decades 1985-2015. Fears that the accelerated development in China could slow down without a strong central government, combine with the awareness of the need for western technology and open communications in today's global economy to accelerate the development, create in the Chinese mind a problem that needs to be tackled carefully to continue progress. Awareness of the huge inequalities and corruption in the rush towards modernization, need to tackle extensive contamination of air and water, and need for social security and healthcare for an aging population create a new urgency for careful policy making to sustain progress.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2015
‘China 1945,’ by Richard BernsteinNew York Times 01/09/2015
Bank of Japan's Kuroda adopts the ECB's Draghi's stance on the economy, saying "we will do whatever it takes" in Nov. 2014
10/31/2014
Efforts by Kuroda to reach the 2% inflation target in 2 years.
Linked Articles
Bank of Japan Announces Massive Stimulus Move
Wall Street Journal 11/01/2014
Japan Abruptly Acts to Stimulate EconomyNew York Times 10/31/2014
Changes in American breakfast eating habits affect cereal and orange juice sales in 2012-2015
07/22/2014
Linked Articles
As Cereal Slips, a New Battle Over Breakfast Dollars
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2014
U.S. Orange-Juice Sales Fall to Record LowWall Street Journal 07/22/2014
The events in Lviv and in the Square in Kiev Feb-20-21, 2014, that led to the collapse of the Yakunovych government in Ukraine
02/22/2014
A parallel diplomatic effort that may have been driven by the events in Lviv and in the Square and underestimated the depth of feeling in Ukraine and the organization of the protest movement.
Linked Articles
As His Fortunes Fell in Ukraine, a President Clung to Illusions
New York Times 02/23/2014
European Ministers Brokered Ukraine Political CompromiseWall Street Journal 02/22/2014
Faces the U.S. Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen will have in mind as she shapes Fed policies
01/23/2014
The long term unemployed will shape Yellen's thinking on Fed policy in 2014-2015, especially men of working age.
Linked Articles
More Men in Prime Working Ages Don't Have Jobs
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
Don’t Expect Job Data Alone to Persuade Fed on RatesNew York Times 01/23/2014
A deeply divided Thailand with political divisions between the northeast around Chiang Mai and the Bangkok region
12/03/2013
Yingluck and Thaksin Shinawatra are from the northeast of Thailand and get most of their support from this region. The Bangkok region, military, courts and business remain opposed to a transfer of power to the provinces and the policies of Shinawatra. SHinawatra's policies favor the rural areas and the newly emerging middle class in the north. The struggle is as much a social phenomenon from the economic progress of the last 2 decades in Thailand as it is a struggle for a sharing of power, say experts.
Linked Articles
Economic Realignment Fuels Regional Political Divisions in Thailand
New York Times 12/03/2013
Economic Realignment Fuels Regional Political Divisions in ThailandNew York Times 12/03/2013
Stanford Hoover Institution's Fouad Ajami on the Middle East policies of U.S. president Obama that led to sectarian conflict and increase in terrorism
10/24/2013
Without a residual U.S. presence in the Middle East acting as a restraining influence on Shiite militias, Sunni groups, other foreign powers, leading to an exacerbation of sectarian conflict by the Malliki government, created the conditions for the rise of terrorism. Only in 2015-2016 were the effects of this seen with the breakup of Syria and Iraq, and the millions of refugees making their way to Turkey, Jordan, and Europe, followed by the increase in terrorism in Europe and the U.S.
Linked Articles
Notable & Quotable: Fouad Ajami on the Sunni-Shiite Fight
Wall Street Journal 01/05/2016
Fouad Ajami: A Lawyer Lost in a Region of ThugsWall Street Journal 10/24/2013
Insights into the thinking of Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke for a strong labor market before increasing interest rates
07/18/2013
Yellen is expected to look beyond the unemployment rate target of 6.5% set by Bernanke in Dec. 2012, and give emphasis to the long term unemployed. Bernanke also mention the under employment rate as an additional factor to consider.
Linked Articles
Don’t Expect Job Data Alone to Persuade Fed on Rates
New York Times 01/23/2014
Bernanke Plays Down Link Between Jobless Rate, Fed MovesWall Street Journal 07/18/2013
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