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Vigorous and eloquent testimony before Congress by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, answering questions from Republicans and Democrats. Bessent had just landed from London at 3 am in the morning and after 3 hours of sleep took the time to answer over 5 hours of questioning by members of the House of Representatives. In question after question he explained how the certainty offered by the tax cuts bill would help small business and job creation in the US. The permanence of the 100% expensing of buildings and equipment would help farmers and small business , regulations would be cut, and manufacturing would take off. Manufacturing employs 9% of the workers in the US and their wages will rise faster than for service workers. The combined effects of the improvements for small business, farmers and for manufacturing workers will help the American middle class, America's working class, and increase the growth of the economy. Bessent points out that in the original bill of which the new tax bill is an extension the top 10% paid 7% more in taxes in 2017. He also points out that workers were hurt the most by the slower rise in wages and the rise in cost of living of 21% in 2021-2022, which he says was in essential goods with the actual impact of about 30%. With higher jobs creation by small business and more investment in the economy more able bodied men can join the workforce and gain healthcare benefits under new rules. He pointed to low inflation at 2.1% and to higher job creation, and to higher growth in the economy of 2.6%, that with other savings could lower the deficit. ...

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Levelling up is proving to be a false promise of the Conservatives. Where the money is coming from and how much and where it is going answers the question in America for Biden. Fair taxation is key, a strong economy is key for Biden. Fair taxation supports trillions in public investment that in turn generate private investment. In the second quarter of 2023 business investment was up 56% in Biden America, about $1 trillion with more in the pipeline.  The Conservatives fail on both and have no plan for step by step action that fits needs and opportunities in the economy as Biden has. Getting equal share of the fruits of labour to all Britons is never going to happen under trickle down economics of the Trump or Tory kind. That much is clear as daylight.

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VW brings back the Scout brand to the US adding it to VW and Audi brands. VW will invest $1 billion initially to manufacture the Scout EV vehicles in the US with additional investments after preparing the ground for the manufacturing plant. VW acquired the Scout brand name with its acquisition of Navistar in 2020. Navistar was created in 1985 from the International Harvester Company which went out of business.

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A 2011 survey by Universum shows technology firms such as Google, Apple and Facebook as the most preferred choice of university graduates during campus recruiting. Financial firms lag far behind, with J.P. Morgan Chase ranking 41st in that list. At Harvard Business School only 17% of the class went into investment banking and finance. Students from the University of Texas at Austin to Yale, say they want to build something tangible or follow their dream project.

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"Brazil no Espelho" or "Brazil in the Mirror" by Felipe Nunes is cited by Brian Winter of Americas Quarterly in 2026 just before the October 2026 election. Lula has had a good run in the last 4 years with 3% growth of the economy, improvement in working class transfers and low unemployment. Lula's drawback is he is turning 80 years, and the Brazil of today is changing in its social aspects into one that is becoming more faith oriented. With evangelical Christianity on the rise and now about 30% of the people, including in the poorer areas of cities once supporting tax and transfers policies of Lula such as Bolsa Familia. Asked about their faith Brazilians are exception in the world for numbers Nunes shows can be found nowhere else- over 95% saying they are believers that their faith is the most important aspect of their life. Brazilians are also putting family first. There is a certain fatigue with the state supporting the economic lives of people, particularly with a recent Master Banco revelations of wrongdoing in business circles, reminder of the Car Wash Scandal after Lula left office. Brazilians say working for oneself is more important than working for the government. Brazil's economy is also transformed in many ways in its size and potential since the start of the Lula government in 2003. Brazil is now the 9th largest economy in the world, growing similar to India as the 3rd largest. The notions of left and right wing politics are now in both countries being replaced with a belief in a higher Being that guides us all. The ideas of Faith, Family and Work independent of the State is the direction in the European Union and other nations in the world.  Brazil as part of the Western hemisphere, and the US asserting the Monroe Doctrine after its experience with drugs and fentanyl, mass migration across its borders, it is now a different hemisphere than before. The US has shifted to securing the western hemisphere from the swings that happened in Cuba and Venezuela over decades that have led to economic disaster, and to millions of displaced Venezuelans crossing borders. In this situation much has changed across Latin America and North America.  In any situation the US is likely to find a favorable investment climate in Brazil, closer relations with Brazil, in its own hemisphere, as it has with India in Asia. A Brazil that would work to give balance to the US process of economic cooperation with Latin America that was the intent of John F. Kennedy in the Alliance for Progress. A vision never realized, put on hold for over 50 years, yet now ready to be realized. ...

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Vanguard economists using the work of Stanford Unversity economists Bloom and Baker and University of Chicago economist Davis have developed their own estimates of the cost of overall uncertainty to the U.S. economy. Bloom, Baker and Davis show the level of overall uncertainty in 2011-2013 is about 50% higher than the level seen since 1985. Vanguard's estimates are for a drag on the U.S. economy of about $261 billion in deadweight losses from this uncertainty- uncertainty in monetary policy, uncertainty in deficit reduction, uncertainty in business investment. Their estimates show 1 million jobs not created, job growth per month lower by 45,000 in the last 2 years, and gdp growth of about 3% per year in 2011 and 2012 in place of the 2% average recorded, in the absence of these uncertainty shocks experienced by the U.S. economy. McNabb points out that the market gains of the S&P 500 are based on an unstable foundation as long as this overall uncertainty is not lifted and create a serious disconnect....

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Small business and farmers are driving a recovery in the Indian economy in the latter half of 2020 after the impact of the pandemic. Rural India with demand from farmers for cars and tractors is also helping build demand. Maruti Suzuki, India's largest auto manufacturer, had sales increase of 10% in rural India vs. 4% overall in the third quarter of 2020. Manufacturing and farm sector are leading the recovery. Transport and hotel, airlines are also seeing an increase in demand. From 2 million in June airline passengers have increased to 5 million in September compared to 12 million before the pandemic. The second generation reforms made by the Modi administration and the many initiatives are expected to boost the potential growth and scale of the Indian economy. Building a strong manufacturing sector and getting foreign investment in that sector is also a critical step to building the economy's growth potential. Working with Taiwanese investment and investment from the U.S. and the European Union is part of this effort. ...

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A directive from the Central Committee of the CCP, China's Communist Party is shown in this report in the WSJ that requires strengthening the work in corporate governance of the United Front Work Departments. This applies to foreign companies according to this directive in September 2020. This report says the European Chamber of Commerce in China has said that "this would have a considerable impact on business sentiment, and could lead foreign companies to reconsider future and even current investments in China."

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Inozemtsev of the Institute of Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, asks the question wht if the Russian economy shows no growth in 2017, and 2015-2016 become the beginning of a serious downturn. If oil prices remain low for an extended period as now looks likely with factors such as shale oil technologies, Iranian oil, and Saudi policy, playing an increasingly long term role, Russia could face some of the problems former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, other business leaders including head of Sberbank, warned about. A major problem that Inozemtsev points to is the change in the business climate for foreign investment in 2012-2016 as the Russian economy looks more inward, and the departure of many foreign companies. During the period 2000-2008, a major boost to the economy came from foreign investment which brought with it management and technological improvements. No emerging market country, including China, can have a bright future without access to new technologies and investments from foreign investment. The current period starting in 2009 stands in sharp contrast to the earlier period with the Russian economy lacking the boost from foreign investment, facing capital outflows, and international conflicts creating a long term effect on oil prices. Russia needed time to move its economy away from commodity dependence through technological improvements and investment, yet this does not appear to be happening, raising serious questions....

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In 2015 the new government of Antonio Costa took a U turn from austerity policies followed in return for a bailout from the European Union. This has helped Portugal achieve the highest growth in a decade coming back from a severe slump. Unemployment is cut in half with growth in the tourist industry, and investment in agriculture, construction, aerospace.  Traditional industries such as paper mills and textiles have invested in new technology resulting in a boom in exports. German companies Bosch, Mercedes Benz, and others have also invested in the country. Portugal has a good relationship with Germany and the European Union which has also helped attract foreign investment. Prime minister Antonio Costa says "too much austerity deepens a recession and leads to a vicious circle." Antonio Costa came to power in 2015 on promises to reverse cuts in income made by the previous government to reduce the deficit in exchange for a 78 billion euro international bailout. The government backed by left parties left out of government since 1974 with the collapse of the dictatorship, was able to increase public sector salaries, the minimum wage and pensions, over objections of the IMF and the German government. Incentives were given to small business in the form of tax incentives, development subsidies and funding. Budget balancing was achieved by cutting expenditure on infrastructure and other spending, cutting the budget deficit from 4.4% when Costa took office to 1%. A surplus is planned for 2020, ending a quarter century of budget deficits. ...

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Barnes & Noble's Nook tablet sales increased to $1.5 billion in the 2011-2012 fiscal year compared to $880 million the prior year. The large investments in the Nook tablet including on advertising has affected the bottom line. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for Barnes & Noble declined to $163 million in the fiscal year ending April 30, 2011, from the prior fiscal year's $281 million. In contrast to the Nook tablet the Book Simple Touch e-reader did poorly. Barnes & Noble is exploring partnerships, including a minority parnership in the Nook business as a separate stand alone business or selling the Nook business outright. This is because of the huge investments required to compete with Apple and Amazon in the tablet business.

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US Business has considerable apprehension about the former president in 2024 compared to its willingness to consider Trump in 2016. At the time executives from investment bank Goldman Sachs and heads of oil companies joined the Trump administration. This time US business and corporate interests are apprehensive about becoming the target of a tweet they might find the next morning under a Trump administration. They are not supportive of student loan forgiveness, but when it comes to the CHIPS and Science Act they see president Biden as effective and helping industry. Business leaders have a negative view on the Trump effort through appointment of 3 Supreme Court Justices of overturning decades old rights of women on abortion, and on this issue alone many will support Harris-Walz, overriding other concerns they might have. The visions of Harris and Trump are so vastly different with one calling climate change a hoax and hyping up social issues and infrastructure needs without any record of delivery when in office, and the other a strong position on climate change, wages and income, delivering on infrastructure and CHIPS that US Business. The result is that it leaves US Business with no better option in 2024 than to support the vision  that takes America forward. There are different sections of the business community which have different priorities.  Silicon Valley, and oil, pharmaceuticals because it profits most from light regulation which brings with it social costs is a special issue not addressed here. Other business, banking, automobiles, and a range of other industries have other priorities yet also see the need for the economy and the US to move forward with a different vision than one that simply ignores climate change, and fails to address child care, child poverty, wide disparities in wealth, and other issues facing of wages, cost of living facing most Americans.  ...

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The tech boom bust since 2000 that has hurt America and Europe and which also laid the foundations for the loss of manufacturing and technology to China, ceding American leadership and critical advantage, is shown here in the WSJ. The role of the finance sector  is explained here. That has added one more factor to the factor of endless wars in the Middle East, where American and European investment in healthcare, education and new infrastructure was somehow diverted away, and much of America's and Europe's resources wasted- or not turned to the benefit of the people of America or Europe.  One financial firm that rode the tech boom to the hilt finds itself with unacceptable losses except in a severe recession. Tiger Global Management was using tens of billions of dollars from pensions, endowments and rich clients riding on some of Silicon Valley's hottest stocks.  With the plunge in tech stock values including startups in which Tiger pushed into aggressively now facing large losses after hyper valuations, Tiger's hedge fund which managed $23 billion at the end of 2021 was down 52% in 2022. Another of its funds that managed $11 billion has lost 62%. WSJ says this wiped out two thirds of the gains Tiger has made in the tech stocks since its founding. In addition large writedowns are expected on its venture funds valued at $64 billion at the end of 2021, says WSJ.  WSJ says cheap money (money somehow diverted from infrastructure and funding manufacturing in China instead of the US now goes by the misnomer cheap money) reshaped Silicon Valley in the last decade, as pension funds, rich investors and celebrities turned to well connected money managers such as Tiger to put money in tech stocks and startups. This WSJ report says compared to Sequoia Capital and an earlier generation of venture companies Tiger Global is simply not interested in management of companies it invests in, taking a broad brush approach, using Bain Capital for research, and trying to haul in a large load of fish like trawlers at sea hoping for some companies to make big gains. Many pension funds such as Calpers California's public pension fund invest in Tiger with a $400 million investment. WSJ also reports that Tiger Global's venture funds do not reflect the realities of the tech business as venture stocks will reflect the drop over 2022 and 2023, including its ByteDance Chinese tech investment which will need larger writedowns. Tiger has also not hesitated to get into cryptocurrency which has loss of about $1.5 trillion dollars. It is of interest to note that Julian Robertson, hedge fund manager of the 2000 period (when Clinton-Bush were US presidents) who ran Tiger Management provided the impetus for Mr. Coleman, then 25 years old, for the start of Tiger Global. Julian Robertson closed his fund in 2000 during the dot com bust. Coleman hired a Blackstone analyst and started on the next cycle of tech with social media platform Facebook now Meta, followed by China's JD.com as investments in a new China boom were started. The end result is that during a period of Middle East wars under Bush and Obama, and building dependence on Russian oil and gas supplies under Schroeder and Merkel, China was the gainer as the US and EU lost much of its manufacturing and technology to China. During this period US and Europe neglected investment in infrastructure that would benefit the people of America in ease of living and quality of life. Just as money was wasted in wars much of the tech investment was wasted. The companies that added value over time were started long before and relied on sales growth and new products that revolutionized their field such as Apple with smartphones that started well before the nineteen eighties, Amazon with logistics and its own style of management, Microsoft from an even earlier era. Tech monopolies Facebook, Google, and others would not be missed much in terms of real progress for the people of America. The cost is many decades of ceding manufacturing and technology advantage to China by US and the EU led by Germany. China 2030 and the war in Ukraine with China's support have shown how fragile the foundations have been with weak political leadership and a finance sector running backwards in terms of America's and Europe's strengths in new infrastructure, better healthcare, services and education for the people of America and Europe. Leaving it to the Biden administration and a new coalition of Greens and Scholz in Germany to begin the task of rebuilding America and Europe on strong foundations, including the dignity of the workers and families, that makes who we are and what we believe in, and why the free world believes in us. ...

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Set a big goal, achieve it and set an even bigger goal- this is the way the PM is setting out to tackle the challenge of Vikshit or Developed Bharat by 2047. 2024 is next step followed by plan to 2030. PM Modi highlights important aspects of the Budget in his comments on the Indian Budget for 2024. The detailed Budget will come after a new government is formed. This provides an outline of the government's key priorities and investment in priorities. The focus is on the youth the next generation for opportunities, the farmers, the poor and the middle class. Investment will increase by 11% in 2024 over the prior year with expenditures of 1.1 million crores. Targets are set for delivering in housing from 40 million houses delivered to add 20 million more houses, for women setting up small business from 20 million lakhpatis to add 10 million more lakhpatis.  For the youth research and innovation budget capital allocation of $1 billion. Manufacturing of 40,000 railway bogies or railcars for the new Vande Bharat trains. Roof Top Solar campaign will give 10 million families free electricity as well as income of Rs 18,000 to sell surplus energy to the electric grid. Income tax remission for 10 million families. ...

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Efforts by City Hall and the French government to support public housing in Paris with new investment in the city for newly built public housing. This will create an attractive environment for low and middle income residents to stay in the city including small business owners, as the buildings are modern and add to the look of the city. This will be visible during the Olympics in 2024 in Paris. It is a clear goal of the city government of Paris to give people of different income levels the opportunities to live in attractive modern housing in the city. It remains a pioneer in this idea and its execution among European cities.

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The Trump Accounts for children born 2025-2028 and the Dell $6.5 billion expansion to include earlier born children may be one of the single biggest actions to rebuild the bank accounts of the next generation. It looks at the shrivelled bank accounts of today's older generation with lack of enough savings for a medical crisis and says it has got to be different from now on. The median bank account of Americans over 65 and over is $13400 which means there is little for medical health emergencies and little for needs of older Americans. Median means half have less and half have more than $13400. This is astounding for the wealthiest nation at a time when the total wealth is the highest ever in history. This report by WSJ unfortunately does not mention this at all and dwells on how this is an opportunity for banks and investment companies to get in the door to get your business. DJT as US president with a mandate from lower income Americans has designed this so that it shows the value of careful investments of small seed money. With $1000 to begin with from the government, added amounts from parents and grandparents and invested in a mutual fund that tracks the S&P 500 it will grow with the economy for 18 years, doubling two to three times on the way. It would provide funds for education increasing enrollment in higher education, increase financial literacy by showing how money grows in broad S&P 500 type index funds such as Vanguard type funds. Much of the shriveling of bank accounts for the shocking figure of $13400 median for American 65+ year olds is a result of job losses, high health care costs, wage decline  with factories outshored, hits from 2009 financial crisis caused by bank irresponsible behaviour, drug epidemics and fentanyl allowed to pour into the country, covid pandemic and stock bubbles, decline in higher education enrollment, other. The US president DJT is seeing his mandate as one that reverses these adverse situations one by one to take America back to post war prosperity and rising incomes, rising bank acocunt savings and rising hopes and aspirations for the next generation. ...

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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Of 161 million people employed in 2024 about 40-50 million in vulnerable groups living from paycheck to paycheck and without savings to support them in a medical emergency is a real problem in the US economy. It is why even as unemployment looks good at 4% and inflation down to 3% there is a lot of angst for Americans for cost of living. Fifteen million baby boomers who will turn 65 years for retirement between now 2024 and 2030 face a situation where they have less than 250,000 in savings. Many who were born between 1945 and 1962 called baby boomers are in this group with diminished savings. In the prime of their careers they were hit by the 2009 financial crisis caused by bank speculation risk taking. They also were hit by the pandemic in the peak years of income growth. Other such vulnerable groups are young people with high student who are being helped by president Biden. There are also the low income groups that have been hit by medical costs and a family emergency that were pushed into poverty. Other groups in the millions are the people at the low income levels who are working paycheck to paycheck because of housing costs. About one fourth or 25% of apartment renters are people whose households budget shows 50% or more going to housing costs which have increased 20% in the last 2-3 years, which includes the pandemic years 2022 and 2023. President Biden seeks to limit apartment rent price increases to 5% and Kamala Harris has proposed help for families for the portion above 30% of household income going to rent. The jump in cost of living from automobiles, automobile repair and housing, cost of groceries have affected other groups with large credit card debt. This is a result of the supply chain concentration in China which comes from American business overconcentrating production in China and previous administrations doing little about this. Biden's answer is to bring jobs and manufacturing knowhow and investment back to America. During the pandemic some people resisted getting vaccinated and lost their jobs, a million people lost their lives, others took early retirement seeing the stress ful lives during the pandemic, others including women quit to take care of children. This has reduced the labor supply to business leading to tight supply higher prices.The result is that there are about 5 such vulnerable groups each with about 5-10 million people for a total of about 40-50 million people at risk. For these people the cost of living presents huge challenges, including childcare. It includes young people and retirees, single women and families on low income hourly wages that have not kept up with inflation.  ...

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In the days when cross border technology flows were limited and the investment in India was small, India's technological capabilities at an early stage H1-B visa program acted as an exchange program where Indian engineers could gain experience and skills, learn new technologies in the US, that would benefit both India and the US taking a long term view. In 2025 when cross border technology flows to India from the US are large and significant, when Indian investment is large India's economy fastest growing and from a much larger base, with ability to absorb talented engineers in expanding Indian business, the H1-B program is one that drains both the US and India. India as a huge brain drain of 60,000 of its best engineers every year to 2030 or 300,000 of its best engineers and the 3 million engineers they would have trained locally through their creative talents. For the US it means the loss of 300,000 engineering jobs to 2030 for locals in 51 states in the Nation. Both make no sense. Business practices once set do not change. This is why an executive order by DJT was signed by the president to impose a $100,000 fee that Tata, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Apple can choose to pay every year for 6 years if they want to hire someone on H1-B Visas. To call this group of Indian H1-B of 60,000 engineers "dreamers" also makes no sense because 3.3 million engineers knowledge base and skills to India's growth capabilities and modernization could increase economic growth, modernization of Indian infrastructure, to make India a Dream State to live in. And the same number of American born engineers would make each of the America's 51 states Dream States through repowering America's new modernization of infrastructure and power economic growth. ...

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One Big Beautiful Act passed in US Senate with Vance casting tie breaking vote. It renews the tax cuts from DJT's first term in office in 2017 and provides tax cuts to seniors, middle class, and small business. It provides 100% expensing for business to increase investment. Mothers get child care credit that is doubled, senior citizens over 65 years get a $6000 deduction. The seniors deduction means 88% of seniors will now pay no taxes on social security benefits from 64%. Medicaid changes so that able bodied Americans will have to put in 80 hours of work to qualify.  Note that the Medicaid program was becoming unworkable and unsustainable- starting with the idea of helping people unable to work and transitioning those who could work, it jumped to $228 billion cost in 2000 from $28 billion in 1980, ten times over 20 years. Going up to $918 billion in 2024, 4 times the 2000 level. Medicaid is now 62% of what Social Security costs, $918 billion compared to $1480 billion for Social Security. ...

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The Waldorf was built in 1931 by Hilton Hotels founder Conrad Hilton. After a century of use it was outdated and needed major repairs. In 2014 Hilton decided to sell it and hired Blackstone advisors who said it would get about $1 billion. China had just allowed Chinese to buy foreign assets in 2014, and a Chinese founder of a regional insurance company Anbang Group offered $1.9 billion when Hilton knowing that China was keen in acquiring foreign assets priced it at $2 billion. In 2017 only three years later China decided to pull back from allowing private investments of this kind, Anbang's Wu was arrested for business practices. 2017 was the time when Xi at the 19th  Communist CCP Party Congress put forward his ideas for "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" and made it part of China's Constitution, and launched anti-corruption drive against corrupt business practices. The Waldorf was taken over in this drive by Chinese government. For 10 years China held onto the property and built 375 900 square feet condos in the Waldorf for $6 billion and 375 hotel rooms by the time it reopened in 2025. Was it worth it? Even if China could get $3.2 million for each of 375  900 square foot condos this would generate $1.1 billion. It would take 8 years to generate the remaining $900 million of the $2 billion paid for the Waldorf by Anbang's founder Wu if the Waldorf's 375 rooms were rented out for $1000 a night for 300 days. China would still be at a loss for $6 billion. This type of extravagant business investments characterized Japan in the 1980's and 1990's leading to the gradual stagnation in Japan's economy as other countries caught up in quality control and other production efficiency practices using new IT technologies. China looks to be following the Japanese example with infrastructure overbuilding. The US and EU will catch up in the next wave of investment in America and Europe by 2030 and other Asian economies such as India will also catch up with China. Investment productivity will play a part, new technologies will play a part, and a return of manufacturing to the US and EU, a build of India's manufacturing and logistics will play a part. ...

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China after American and European offshoring of supply chain and manufacturing over three decades is going through a rapid reversal. People to people contacts are also falling off a precipice as it were, showing how badly structured efforts by business focused on profit and not people to people fail miserably, hurting the long term prospect of peaceful cooperation. Foreign Investment that was $100 billion in the first quarter of 2022 is now $20 billion. Tourism down by about 80%. At Zhangjiajie National Park goes from half a million foreign tourists to 50,000 last year. It is typical of this staggering change.  People are not going from America and Europe to China unless they have to. It shows the complete failure of a purely business relationship such as offshoring manufacturing when it hurts workers and families in America and Europe, who turn against it leading to a free fall in relations. American and European business and the governments allied with it failed in this sense to build a world of better interpersonal relations between Asia and the western world. China's experience with industrialization and modernization begun in 1990 is now a cautionary tale for other regions such as India and the Middle East that are planning their own modernization. Much of it happened less from a people to people relationship than from an effort by US business to seize the opening of China after Mao's revolution to offshore American manufacturing as if realizing a new opportunity without understanding its long term consequences for the American people. European business followed American business in this offshoring. It damaged the basic structure of the American and EU peoples based on locally based supply chains and manufacturing at home needed for strong healthy communities, leading to this situation today. The rancor and deeply seated discontent all across America and Europe from communities losing factories and the jobs and wealth coming from it from offshoring by business interests has created this situation.  ...

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Matteo Renzi, recently elected chief of Italy's ruling Democratic party, is likely to be the next prime minister as current prime minister Letta resigns. Letta's administration had come under increasing criticism from business and public opinion about the slow pace of economic changes in Italy. Italy's 2 trillion debt, or about $2.7 trillion, at 130% of GDP, and the declining GDP with little or no economic growth, is a problem for the eurozone. At the current pace of economic change the IMF forecast estimates only 0.5% annual growth in GDP till 2018. Foreign direct investment 2005-2011 is about one third of the eurozone average, according to the IMF, and Italy has failed to attract foreign investment for the last two decades with its weak political system and lack of competitiveness. By comparison Spain has seen an increase in exports and increasing foreign investment as it positions itself for a recovery. The austerity measures adopted by the Monti and Letta adminstrations in 2011-2013 helped to improve confidence in capital markets and lower borrowing rates, however this is clearly not the answer to Italy's problems of slow or no growth in the economy for the last decade. This is the problem Matteo Renzi, the 39 year old Mayor of Florence, is pushing to tackle as the mood in the country calls for aggressive action. Renzi's economic advisor is Filippo Taddei, who has a doctorate from Columbia University. He says at the core the issues are about what kind of "productive identity" Italy should have. Taxation that promotes higher rates of business investment is needed to promote growth, and creating a business climate that encourages investment in human capital and new technology. Payroll and business taxes take up about two thirds of a company's earnings leaving less for investment. Renzi is planning to take the centre left Democratic party in a new direction, "the road less travelled," as he put it in a televised speech, with innovative solutions including pro-market approach. As a first step he negotiated a deal with former premier Berlusconi for electoral reforms that would give a party or coalition winning electoral support a strong mandate to make and execute policy, without being hobbled in the way previous administrations were in the post war period. Lucrezia Reichlin, former head of research at the ECB, and Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a former member of the ECB executive council, are candidates to be the economics minister in the Renzi administration....

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The WSJ/Vistage U.S. Small Business Confidence Index ends 2013 at a new high of 108.4 reflecting optimism of small business owners. The Index for 2013 shows a sharp drop by November 2012 to about 82 followed by a sharp increase for Dec. 2013 to about 94, and a similiar pattern is observed as it declines to about 95 in October 2013 and increases to 108.4 in December 2013. The sequester and deadlock in talks by Nov. 2012, and the government shutdown and its resolution by Dec. 2013 are likely causes. The Dec. 2013 Ryan-Murray budget agreement points the way out of political uncertainty that Vanguard CEO McNabb pointed to as a primary obstacle to investment and growth. This may be the strongest indicator of what lies ahead for 2014- 52% of 937 small business owners surveyed online in the Index in Dec. 2013, say the economy has improved in 2013, an increase from 36% in 2012. And 38% say they expect conditions to be still better in 2014, from the prior years 27%. Small business owners polled have sales less than $20 million and fewer than 500 employees. They are the main engine for growth in employment. Loten cites small business owners in construction and other industries who have increased hiring and expect to see a significant improvement in 2014. One owner who represents the pattern taken by small business, cut back employees by 2010, and held back on investment till 2012, increased investment in 2013 and is now expanding. Availability of credit with improved bottom lines and banks more willing to lend will be another positive in 2014-2015....

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Fed's Powell sees only a temporary slight effect of DJT tariffs on inflation to 2.7% in 2025 that he says can be "looked through without action by us." Fed will wait for clarity in coming days and weeks. Powell says in March 2025 “It can be the case that it’s appropriate sometimes to look through inflation if it’s going to go away quickly without action by us. And that can be the case in the case of tariff inflation.” Tariffs are intended as they were in the first term of DJT and retained by Democrats led by Biden to create a level playing field after hidden subsidies by China, and to rebuild American manufacturing. New investments in manufacturing and in infrastructure supported by both DJT and Biden have brought new hope and vigor to comunnities and towns across America. For far too long as Powell understands textbook economic theory at Ivy League universities that had no connection to reality was used by American business to turn its back on communities and towns across the 51 states and the Nation. ...