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The coalition of socialist, greens and communist parties could win about 205 seats says the Ifop poll. Jean Luc Melenchon is leading a effort by socialist parties to form the next government in France. It is the only alternative to Mr. Macron's party in the parliamentary elections on June 12 and June 19. Meenchon supports raising the minimum wage by 15%, introducing a wealth tax and lowering the retirement age. Another poll by BVA shows only 35% of French voters want Macron's party to win a majority. 

Germany under Scholz's socialist SPD and Greens has increased the minimum wage to 12 euros per hour as part of the election platform. The trend in Europe is now for support to workers and families to meet the high cost of living with inflation accelerated by the war in Ukraine, the energy shortages and higher food prices.

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Scholz called Lindner, the head of the  Free Democrats, who as Finance minister in the coalition with Greens and SPD, was instrumental in blocking much needed infrastructure and other investment in the German economy.  Scholz said of Lindner that his attitude was "disrespectful," "egoistic" and "small-minded." Lindner wrote a paper calling for cuts in investment, welfare cuts and reducing climate change action preparing to leave the coalition to join the opposition Christian Democrats. Yet Lindner's FDP has less than 4% popular support and the timing is poor for his actions. For once the SPD and the Greens decided to stand upto this kind of behaviour and Scholz fired Lindner.

Scholz called for a confidence vote in mid-January as both sides plan on taking it to the voters in an new election.

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The Editorial Board of The Financial Times (UK-Japan) says Germany needs leadership to fix problems, not just manage crises. The Merkel years were marked with Angela Merkel fixing the euro crisis- itself a legacy of missteps under her mentor chancellor Kohl who pushed too fast for entry into eurozone of countries such as Greece without meeting requirements. As Annalena Baerbock points out the actions taken by Merkel are still being questioned such as the austerity policies. Baerbock says in a rare interview- "The major lesson from the eurocrisis is that austerity can end up suffocating an economy, which is why fiscal reform was needed. Germany and Europe needs to become the engine room for innovation again." A fuller and more objective reassessment of Merkel policies by the German people is likely to happen after the elections. Merkel only moved away from austerity policies after the pandemic, committing to European solidarity and sharing the burden of aiding the economies of southern Europe in 2020. This happened at the end of her administration following 10 years of austerity, a period in which Germany invested little in her infrastructure or modernization. Much of the goodwill for democratic practice and forms of government among German people generated by Adenauer and Wily Brandt in the early postwar years was wasted with her migration policies which were also reversed by 2019, as Mr. Biden is doing in 2021 in the US. The potential for good with new direction of a combined Biden administration in the US and a Scholz-Baerbock  administration in Germany and Europe is immense and sorely needed. ...

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The Free Democrats led by Christian Lindner are polling about 4% a week before the elections in Germany. Lindner's FDP was part of the Scholz SPD Greens coalition after winning 11% of the vote in 2021. Elections would be held in 2025 March. Yet with FDP breaking away from the coalition as its popularity dropped elections will be held next week. From the beginning this coalition was not a good one as FDP supported the debt brake and no spending, when Greens and SPD promised investment in infrastructure that were neglected by Merkel's CDU. Germany economy as shown in the article alongside by Tankersely and Eddy reporting from Wittenberg in the eastern region, has not grown in 5 years. Crumbling infrastructure is seen everywhere in cities across the country and the rail system lacks much needed investment.  Scholz wants to reverse this with Made in Germany and remove the debt brake. The CDU wants to cut taxes and regulation. No one knows if the FDP will pass 5% of the vote needed to have representation in parliament. It happened before for FDP- before the 2021 election. ...

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This podcast in WSJ tells the amazing story of the development of a vaccine for malaria by a British scientist that took forty years. In a world of short run startups this tells the story of medical and indirectly other research include research on renewable energy to tackle climate change that takes years to develop and makes a lasting change in our lives. This is also true of the mRNA vaccine developed by two German scientists of Turkish descent who developed the Pfizer vaccine. The Novavax vaccine in the US also has a story of resilience in the face of many challenges. Mr Scholz of the SDP, currently vice chancellor of Germany and winner of the German election said recently he wanted to expose the myth that was created of the self-made man that has penetrated our culture over the last 2 decades. One cannot even conceive of self made people at a time when the whole world depends on vaccines developed such as mRNA vaccine by these 2 German scientists at university labs that are the first line of defense against the coronavirus. Both scientists took only half a day off when they got married. Both are children of immigrants to Germany from Turkey. They both cycle to work. Mr. Shin says "I don't have a car. I am not going to get a plane. What's life changing is to be able to impact something in the medical field." The electric batteries used in today's electric cars use technology developed by a Japanese scientist and professor who also worked at Toshiba in the face of many challenges. ...

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Uncertainty Germany faces as it faces a new election on February 23, 2025. 630 members of German parliament will be elected Feb 23 instead of September 28, 2025 because the FDP of Lindner decided to withdraw from the Scholz SPD Greens coalition. The chancellor is elected from the majority in parliament.

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Healthcare, climate change, pensions and social benefits, are three issues uppermost in the minds of German voters. Three million new young voters most of them only about 2 years old when Merkel started 16 years in office, look for change. They are well informed and for these young voters climate change is the most important issue. DW.com shows three voters and how they plan to vote. One voter has cast a mail in ballot for The Greens party. The second voter will vote for the Greens. Both because of climate change concerns. The third voter Thurid says her mother is a geriatric nurse and is not vaccinated. She is vaccinated but had talks with her mother and understands her worries about vaccination. She will vote for the Free Democrats because they oppose compulsory vaccination. The three leading parties for young voters are the Greens party, the Free Democrats, followed by the Social Democrats all in the range of 16-18% of support. The Greens have sent out 2 million brochures to voters. Out of 60 million voters in a German population of 80  million, 3 million is only 5% of the vote. What makes a difference is that it is consistent with the general direction of voters young and old, all looking for change in Germany as the CDU party attracts only about 20% or one fifth of German voters. Social Democrats Scholz is way ahead of Christian Democrats Laschet in how voters view each candidate. Will German voters be well informed enough to make a decision based on their desire for change after 16 years of Merkel or will the CDU bringing back in the last days of the campaign the old fears that the communist Left party would somehow find its way into the government using the Greens as a way in- this is a question for German voters. In1994 during the Cold War with Soviets Kohl used this to keep the Social Democrats out and Greens out and formed a coalition with the FDP. Yet today Merkel has grown close to both Russia and China and away from the Western alliance in a way that was unimaginable under Adenauer who helped build the new Federal Republic of Germany after the war. Merkel refuses to even immediately accept a call from a new US president Biden, American president who is closest in style and temperament to Harry Truman who faced off the Soviets in Berlin in 1948.  The FDP opposes a wealth tax or any form of taxes in which the wealthier pay a fair share of what is needed to build crumbling infrastructure in Germany neglected in the Merkel years. In Germany social and economic disparities have grown during the pandemic with poverty increasing during the pandemic as has happened throughout Europe and the world. The US is already committing to increase taxes for the upper incomes. This is where voters have a choice- do nothing with infrastructure, health or climate change or do something by increasing taxes. The choice is now before the German people.  With this question comes a choice for western civilization, with the recent election in the US, and two elections in Germany and then France. Will it look with optimism to the future or will it huddle up in a deeply cautious and slightly pessimistic view of the world that is embedded in Angela Merkel's cautious vision that ended up only responding to crises- some self inflicted as in migration policy, and even self inflicted in tackling euro problems created in the euro currency's faulty design. In fiscal policy as in migration policy Merkel has reversed her position- by supporting European solidarity. Will Germans vote for optimism or never ending caution? Are lessons learned?     ...

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Voter turnout of 83.5% in federal elections in Germany in Feb 2025 is the highest since reunification in 1990.  The Free Democrats and the Wagenknecht BSW  fail to meet the threshold of 5% for representation in parliament. The CDU manage 28.5% of the vote less than the forecast 30%, and the AfD is at 20.7%. Scholz Social Democrats drop 9% points from 25% in 2021 to 16.5% and the Greens are at 11.7% of the vote. The Left Parties get 8.7%. German broadcaster ARD cites exit polls showing 82% of voters were dissatisfied with the government coalition, 72% of voters dissatisfied with chancellor Scholz, yet the Greens  voters gave it 45% approval.  In terms of seats in the 630 seat Bundestag  Christian Democrats  208 seats Social Democrats.      121  The Greens                  85  Left Party                       64 AfD                               151        The likely outcome is resignation of chancellor Scholz and new leader for Social Democrats. A CDU SPD coalition Merz as chancellor, with Greens/ Left parties and AfD in the Opposition with equal number of seats.                                                                                                        ...

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Overall the European parliament elections shows the EPP with CDU in Germany winning over 30 percent of the vote, the SPD 14 percent and the Afd 15 percent, Greens 12 percent. In terms of next EU government the EPP, Socialists and Renew have 59.1% of the vote, and with the Greens included 62.6% of the vote of 360 million EU voters. The European parliament elections show the Renaissance Party that includes Macron En Marche and FDP in Germany losing 23 seats, with some seats going to Conservatives and the ID. Conservatives and Reformists right alliance led by Meloni of Italy including National Rally in France added 4 seats, ID of Denmark adding 9 seats. The Socialists including SPD lost 4 seats and the European People's Party including CDU/CSU led by Leyen won the most seats adding 10 seats. Greens/EFA lost 18 seats as the other parties adopted green energy planks. Leyen says the centrist parties held off challenges from the right and left parties. EPP of CDU's  Leyen has 186 seats, Socialists of SPD's Scholz 135, RE of Macron En Marche and FDP in Germany 79 seats, ECR of Meloni in Italy and National Rally in France 73 seats, ID of Denmark 58 seats, Greens of Germany's Baerbock 53 seats.  ...

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Lars Kingbeil SPD parliamentary head March 2025 negotiations with CDU head Merz for a new government in Germany following federal elections. Combined the 2 parties have 45% of the vote with the Left having 9% and the Greens 12% in Opposition and AfD having 21%. In addition Wagenknecht and FDP received 9% of the vote. About 80 percent of the German vote still went to non far right parties in a period of immigration anxiety and economic contraction. Strong action on immigration should by Merz and the CDU that was missing from Scholz and SPD, and weak economic leadership from Scholz limited by the FDP's Lindner Finance minister replaced by CDU under business friendly Merz should change Germany's situation in the next 4 years. It will making immigration issues fade by 2027 and help Germany's economy rebound with investments in key areas.  Merkel and Merz are very different leaders. Merkel a pastor's daughter with a physics background lacks the business background in capital markets of Merz and the ability to understand the mood and thinking of Germans in the industrial west and south of the country and in Bavaria's Munich region (CSU). ...

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Scholz loses a no confidence vote in parliament that he called so that new elections are held in 60 days according to federal German law.  He says it is a fundamental choice that German people need to make between pensions and investments for the future with support for the armed forces vs the policy that doe not plan to invest in the future with a debt brake limiting investment. The Free Democrats opposed SPD and Greens efforts to invest for 4 years. Why did Scholz continue. in this way with FDP CDU's Merz asks directly, was Scholz on another planet.  This has happened three times before- in 1972 when Wily Brandt got support for his Ostpolitik policy of better relations with Soviet Union and GDR and new mandate after planning a no confidence vote for a new election. He won with 46% of the vote and 91% of eligible voters voted. In 2005 Kohl was reelected after a no confidence vote he planned on his government to get a new mandate. Kohl of CDU won. In 2005 Gerhard Schroeder's social and economic reforms affected working class Germans- he called a no confidence vote to get a new mandate. This one Schroeder of SPD lost and it started Angela Merkel of CDU's 16 years in office. ...

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A music enthusiast who played in a rock band, before studying political science at the University of Hanover, and running for parliament, Lars Klingbeil comes from humble roots in Saxony. He led the campaign which brought the SPD Social Democrats to power in 2020 federal elections, and also into an election where the SPD secured only 16% of the vote a new low in 2025. Klingbeil comes as much of a surprise in the way his amiable manner and personality convinced the CDU leader Merz to give him the Finance Ministry as well as the support for major investments in the German economy. This was a goal the SPD failed to accomplish under Scholz with his Finance Minister from the FDP Christian Lindner blocking investment plans for 4 years. The frustration in the SPD is intense and Klingbeil and Merz coming together on borrowing and massive investments in infrastructure and defense is something of a miracle after the Merkel years and the constitutional brake she put in place on spending.  Right from the start the SPD and the CDU realized that this was their last chance as Merz put it to get things right before the far right or some other party took over. Problems that require investment- in crumbling infrastructure and obsolete transportation, lack of investment in IT, problems in childcare and in cost of living could not be postponed. Risks had to be taken, and the 28% of the vote CDU had needed the 17% of the vote of the SPD with the Greens 12%, total 57% of the 2025 vote, to act fast and decisively. ...

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After elections this week in Germany the CDU may be faced with forming a government with the BSW socialist party an unlikely pair. Germany's political leader Sarah Wagenknecht considers the policy of letting migrants in to be "highly problematic", and making it difficult to focus on help for workers and families. Wagenknect says - "Not because people don't deserve a better life, but because our country is simply overburdened as a result."  She pursues a social policy that follows common sense on behalf of the working class and unions, and follows socialist policies for better incomes and benefits for workers. This is new to Germany says DW.com, yet it is not true for the EU. Neighboring Denmark for example has prime minister Mette Hendriksen who has said the same thing about migrants, opposing entry because it leaves the workers worse off than before and presents both a burden and a huge distraction from the many issues the working class face today. The Democrats in the US also are coming to the same conclusion as president Biden and Harris have moved to secure the Border with Mexico and cut unlawful migrant flows to a trickle in 2024.  These shifts will affect Scholz and the SPD party in 2025, as well as the FDP and Greens as they lose popularity in the former East Germany.  ...

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This report in the WSJ shows in an extraordinary detailed way going back 20 years how under each administration Bush, Obama, Trump in the US and Angela Merkel in Germany, Hollande and Macron in France, the serious differences in the world view and thinking between president Putin of Russia and western leaders were simply ignored or overlooked. Mr. Putin truly believed in Ukraine and Russia as one people, researched history on his own and wrote an essay that made him more convinced than ever about his views that separation of Ukraine from Russia was an artificial construct, more so in the last two years.  By integrating the German and European Union economies with Russia and China without coming to terms with the large separation in views of the world and ignoring Russian views because of its economic size as an economy the size of France, both Merkel and Obama's policies failed to grasp what was happening. This report shows in much detail each event since 2005 that led to increasing distrust by Putin of western leaders.  The integration of the economies of the west and the integration of supply chains with China and Russia continued even after serious concerns had developed during the Trump administration. US and European business was operating on a completely different path not taking this into account in any way. It was only in the Biden administration and after the election of Scholz in Germany in 2021 that the situation was becoming clear. On the other side Ukraine itself and its people had changed in ways that were not anticipated by people in Germany or Russia, much less the leaders in Germany or Russia. There was a genuine sense that Ukraine was a national identity leading to the Ukraine resistance and a prolonged conflict. Brendan Simms, Cambridge historian shows how Europe went through conflicts and wars in its history as each of the major European nations sought advantage from 1453 to the present in his book, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Small gains were made in these wars that dragged on bringing great suffering to ordinary people.These wars involved England, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia. ...

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This analysis in the NYT looks at the successor administration to chancellor Merkel in Germany as elections approach. It shows that that the three main parties Christian Democrats, the Greens, and the Social Democrats have come so close to the mainstream ideas of modernizing the state, acting on climate change, managing migration, and strengthening the European Union, that they now look similar in their views and have toned down their speeches. This is seen as Armin Laschet for CDU, Ms Baerbock for the Greens, and Scholz for the SPD, conduct a dull campaign that is much on autopilot. Polls show CDU leading the Greens by a nine point margin, yet there is not much enthusiasm for Armin Laschet, CDU's candidate, or for Ms Baerbock. The SPD has lagged behind. The likely outcome in this situation is a coalition of the Greens with either the CDU or the SPD, more likely with CDU, for a future administration to succeed Merkel.    ...

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Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida  holds talks with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi. Japan has pledged to increase trade with India with $42 billion in investment in India over 5 years. In the 20 years 2000-2019 when Japan invested heavily in China, Japan invested only $32 billion in India. The US and Germany also invested heavily in China, compared to the investment in India.  Business in the US, Germany, the EU, and Japan integrated their economies with China over two decades. The Trump administration brought attention to the US working class and the effects of trade and investment that hurt workers in the domestic economy. The election of Biden in the US, Scholz in Germany and Kishida in Japan have shifted focus to the working class, inequality, lack of infrastructure investment in the domestic economy, and the effects of business decisions that cost jobs in the domestic economy. It is in this context that foreign investment is being shifted to India, Vietnam, and other manufacturing locations in Asia as the entire world supply chain is being reinvented to protect workers in the domestic economy, and the local economies. The pandemic and the war in Europe are now accelerating the reinvention of world supply chains. Indi abstained from the vote in the United Nations on Ukraine yet it maintains that all disputes be settled through peaceful resolution under international law. The joint Kishida Modi statement says- "We confirm that any unilateral change in the status quo cannot be forgiven in any region, and it is necessary to seek peaceful resolution of disputes under international law." ...

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In a closely watched election Mr. Wilders of the far Right in Netherlands gains 20 seats, far behind centre right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy of prime minister Rutte who won 33 seats. The Dutch Green party which is strongly pro- Europe went from 4 seats to 14 seats, the Christian Democratic Appeal party gained 19 seats and the pro-European Democrats 66 party also gained 19 seats. In the 150 member parliament Rutte needs 76 seats to form a new coalition government, and he is likely to ally with these other parties to form a new government that supports strongly the European Union. This editorial in the NYT says the people of the Netherlands turned out in large numbers to support pro-European Union parties. Next the focus is on France and Marie Le Pen's challenge from the far Right. Cyber threats from Russia are seen as a way to discredit otherwise strong candidates, and the French government is taking this seriously. Chancellor Merkel said she "was very happy that a high turnout led to a very pro-European result," and president Hollande said this was "a clear victory against extremism."  ...

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Annalena Baerbock, 44 years, of the Greens is Germany's nominee for president of UN General Assembly in 2025. She was nominated by chancellor Scholz. As a leader of the Greens and in the coalition government of chancellor Scholz she has tried to show that Germany is a modernizing nation and innovative more than is seen in its political class. As one of the youngest politicians she has presented Germany in a new way as a young face for Europe. DW.com shows the evolution of the Greens as a party since the 1980's. Baerbock joined the Greens at age 25, four years later in 2010 she was head of the Brandenburg state section of the party, becoming a board member of the European Green party. She is still only 44 years old. She studied public law and political science in Hamburg, and gained a Masters degree in international law at the London School of Economics, one of Germany's first leading politicians to study in Britain. She started studies for a Doctorate at the Free University of Berlin, which she left in 2013 as she was elected to the Bundestag. By 2021 Annalena Baerbock was with Robert Habeck co-leader of the party heading into the general election. At one point the Greens were polling 5 months before the 2021 election at 27% with Annalena Baerbock running for chancellor against Armin Laschet of CDU and ahead of the CDU by 3 points in Sonntag poll. The Greens came in at 15% of the vote in 2021 dropping slightly to 12% in 2025. This time the Greens will sit in the parliamentary opposition headed by Robert Habeck. ...

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The pandemic and ensuing lockdowns, unemployment in the US separated workers from their jobs just long enough to give them a chance to rethink how bad their jobs, incomes, and working conditions were before 2020, says this expert in the NYT. The aid to unemployed workers through long term unemployment benefits, moratorium of rent payments, direct money to households, gave workers enough financial room to make the choice not to go back to poor paying jobs with huge contact risks from coronavirus in the restaurant, fast food franchise, travel and entertainment industries, related industries.  With the Biden administration investing in child care, maternity leave, care for elderly leave, new opportunities for relocating and looking for work were opening for women, and for men who had stuck to old jobs and put up with lousy conditions because of a lack of alternatives. Biden administration's Families and Workers Plans, the effects of the pandemic, helped to shape a new culture of what was possible for workers- a sense that dignity in the workplace was part of culture in America. Restored by FDR/Truman and now again by Biden after two tech booms in the 1920's and the 1990's. A similar situation of a change in culture respecting the dignity of workers and of work is taking place in European Union as stated by SPD leader Olaf Scholz in his election campaign in Germany. Scholz is now incoming Chancellor replacing Merkel. European Union countries have better laws and rules in place for worker retention, and also better worker protections so that the great resignation that happened in America took place in a milder version. ...