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Frances tax system places 40% tax on single earner family with 2 children compared to 20% in the US. France debates how to pass the budget and how to meet budget shortfalls in revenue, where to tax. France's top tax bracket is already at 55%, the second highest in Europe, which does not make the job of setting taxes easier. Additional 1.9 billion euros was to be raised by raising the tax rate for families that had tax liability of 20% if they made over 250,000 euros. This has raised 400 million euros only in 2025. This editorial in the Washington Post is critical of the French tax structure and says it is not just the rich who end up with higher taxes. It says that the average French single worker gets to keep only 53% of income after taxes, whereas American average single worker who gets to keep 70%. The extra 20% could be what the American worker pays for health care if as in some cases health care has become so costly in the US as to cost more than a mortgage, as reported in the WSJ in January 2026. Can government buy healthcare more efficiently and distribute it than families on their own. In the case of pharmacy products would removing the power to negotiate  prices with pharmaceutical companies conducted in government run by special interest groups as happened under US president Bush make it so expensive to buy pharmaceutical products that the advantage of smaller taxes is destroyed by a perverse healthcare system run by special interest groups with help of lobbyists. This is just to show that yes the US tax system with lower taxes can fail when other things go wrong in managing crtical costs such as healthcare and housing.   ...

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U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke tells the House Financial Services Committee hearings that the Fed will give importance to underemployment, not just the unemployment rate, in making decisions about bond purchases. The unemployment rate could be a false indicator of the labor market if the rate falls below the Fed's goal of 6.5% before raising interest rates, and yet labor markets are still weak because of underemployment. Bernanke said: "There are a number of problems with the labor market. Unemployment is one problem, but long term unemployment and underemployment- and by 'underemployment,' I mean people either who are working fewer hours than they would like or possibly working at jobs well below their skill level- is also indicative of a weak labor market." In this situation of high underemployment combined with low inflation the Fed may hold off on raising interest rates when the unemployment rate reach 6.5%. In Bernanke's words: Reaching 6.5% unemployment "would not automatically result in an increase in the federal funds rate target." Since 2010 financial markets in the U.S., and to a lesser extent worldwide, have looked to U.S. Fed policy for raising interest rates, as guidance on the degree of support for the economy and by extension for markets....

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The implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy. Total U.S. debt in 2012 is expected to be $11.58 trillion, with 52% of this in maturities of less than 3 years. The average interest on this is about 2.24% in January 2012, with interest on the debt at about 225 billion in Jan. 2012. If interest rates were to go up in 2014-2017 as forecast by the CBO, an interest rate of 5-6% would result in doubling or tripling the amount of interest on U.S. debt. The U.S. Treasury is financing the huge increase in debt- $5 trillion added in the last four years- through low interest rates and shorter maturities. This stores up large financial risks for the future including calls for tax increases to pay for a sudden rise in the interest on U.S. debt.

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This exceptional report by Ian Talley in the WSJ cites trade and currency expert William Cline about the prospect of a worsening trade deficit under the Trump administration. With an improving economy, says Cline, the dollar had already surged about 8% beyond its fair market value during the last 2 years under president Obama as the economy improved. After Trump's election it surged another 3%. This makes it likely that the trade deficit could approach 4% of GDP with the stronger dollar. More protectionist policy to support U.S. industry, worsening trade deficits, more trade friction could be expected in these conditions. He does point out that markets may be overestimating what will be spent on infrastructure, and how much interest rates will go up which support a stronger dollar. Yet the fact remains that under an administration that is keen on promoting U.S. exports a dynamic is underway that makes U.S. exports actually less competitive in international markets.

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Higher inflation and interest rates at 2.2% are having a profound effect on the Japanese economy. Japan is starting a new era of positive interest rates with the first interest rate increase in 17 years this week. Pay raises reached an average of 5.28% in 2023, according to the Japan Trade Union Confederation where the highest for the previous decade was 2.4%. PM Kishida has pursued a course that encourages workers to get needed pay raises. It will affect everything from US mortgages to how much money stays at home and is invested in Japan. Japan holds $4.2 trillion in foreign investment holdings of which $1.1 trillion is in US Treasury bonds. As the differential with US interest rates decreases - varying from 1.5% to 3%- it will increase investment in the Japanese economy and in manufacturing at home. Japan has seen low wages and a hollowing out of its manufacturing sector similar to the US creating a sense of less hope for the future. This shift to investing in Japan is a change for reasons of supply chain reliability and increasing confidence of workers and worker's families in Japan. ...

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Much of the economic debate by economists in the US takes place separated by walls from the reality of huge inequalities in the country such as half of retirees having zero savings, the cost of living surge, job insecurity, and two third of children in 4th grade no able to pass the ACT test for reading comprehension. Here economists at the US Fed are cited in a discussion about ultra low interest rates that hurt savers and in particular retirees who number 57 million. Ultra low interest rates lead to wasteful use of capital and misallocation of capital in the US, and were largely a result of the effort to correct for the mistakes of the financial industry causing the crisis of 2009. The US was the leading economy in th world and the standards of living in the US were higher during the post war period 1950-1990 that covered the Kennedy-LBJ, Reagan administrations when inflation was accepted at 4% and interest rates were for the most part around 5-8% on average. As Krugman points in a recent NYT column in August 2023 Fed research has been wrong in estimating the right inflation rate for the economy. The best rate for the economy requires knowledge of and careful judgement about the situation of different parts of the American population, of workers and families that are struggling with the cost of living, and half of retirees with no savings. ...

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The US Federal's half percentage point interest rate cut bodes well for stocks and bonds in the US, says this report in WSJ, as it reduces the burden of interest rates on small business that has a part of its debt in floating rates. The default risk component of rates also shrinks for large and small companies. A lot depends on how much the US is investing in manufacturing, in chips and science, in education, in infrastructure that reduces the costs to business and in its industries, which is the ultimate driver of growth. In this sense the Biden administration and Jerome Powell's Fed have accomplished a remarkable deal in the difficult period of the pandemic's four years 2020-2024. Much remains to be done yet this is a big deal, and the next president can leverage these strengths to set the US on the right path, the Way Forward for America.

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The US dollar is rapidly appreciating against currencies such as the Indian rupee, the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. The aggressive interest rate policy in the US and investor sense that the US central bank will take action against inflation is one reason the US dollar is stronger and will continue to strengthen in coming years. The weakness of emerging market currencies, the Bank of Japan's policy to continue keeping interest rates low, and the stronger US economy vs the European economy as Europe struggles with a war and cutoff of energy supplies from Russia, are other reasons for a stronger dollar in 2023 and beyond.

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After rapid growth during 2021 home sales in the US are expected to decline by 10% in 2022, according to the National Association of Realtors. The rise of remote work and homebuyers seeking more space had pushed up sales in 2021 with low interest rates. Mortgage rates are now up to 5% in an higher interest rate environment having an impact on home sales. Higher median home prices with the median price of a home up 15% in March compared to the previous year, and 9.5% lower inventories are also having an impact.

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U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke, says the Fed will keep interest rates low till unemployment reaches 6.5%, as long as inflation remains at about 2%. If unemployment reaches 6.5%, and this is because more people are dropping out of the labor market, he will take this into account. If unemployment stays high the Fed indicated in its statement that it would tolerate a higher inflation of 2.5%, as long as the longer term outlook was for inflation to be at 2%. Bernanke said this doesn't mean monetary policy is on autopilot, because the Fed will watch conditions carefully and will leave room for flexibility- keeping an eye out for new asset bubbles that could develop, and monitoring labor market conditions and inflationary pressures and inflation expectations. If inflation falls well below 2%, or unemployment rate falls mainly because of people dropping out of the labor market, the Fed may continue to keep interest rates low. This policy was announced as U.S. fiscal cliff deficit negotiations continued in Dec. 2012 with one scenario being considered by both political parties being going over the Jan. 1 deadline before coming to an agreement. Bernanke pointed to this, saying "this is a major risk factor right now." The Fed's activist policy in economic policy has given financial markets and business a measure of stability not provided by government and Congress. Fed policy is to buy $40 billion of mortgage securities, and $45 billion of long term Treasury securities for each month in 2013. It will fund the purchases by adding reserves to the banking system, which is to say that it will print money to buy more bonds. This is a major decision by the Fed in that the Fed has shied away from unemployment targets in the past. Bernanke described this action as a new"automatic stabilizer" in the U.S. financial system- if unemployment rises investors know this pushes the Fed's interest rate increases further down the road and would drive interest rates down, if unemployment drops sooner than expected, investors anticipating Fed's rate increases would drive long term interest rates up, to keep stable growth....

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Central banks for the European Union, US and Britain show slight divergence in their approach to inflation. The Bank of England's Bailey increases interest rates in UK to 0.25% from 0.1% a slight increase to signal its direction more than a serious interest rate increase. In the US Fed chairman Powell indicates an intention to make 2-3 rate increases  in 2022 if the conditions require action. In the European Union Ms. Lagarde of the ECB will taper purchases to 20 billion euros a month later in 2022, and keep interest rates at minus -0.5%. The British pound and the euro gained slightly as a result. 

Supply chain issues and energy prices are a big part of the current inflation increases which were described as transitory by Mr. Powell. The persistence of this inflation led to recent moves by the central bank. At some point these pressures would ease leading to a long term policy approach that pushes for a robust economic recovery.

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Economist Lawrence Lindsey says the Fed has boxed itself and has little choice but to keep interest rates low. Borrowing at the more normal interest rates of 5.7%- which is what it was over the last three decades- and not at the current 2.5%, would mean an increase in borrowing costs for the U.S. government of $800 billion in 2021, says Lindsay. Lindsay bases this on the U.S. debt growing from $14 trillion in 2011 to $25 trillion by 2021, and interest rates going back to normal levels by 2021. Just to put this in perspective Lindsay says it would require all the cuts Republicans and Rep. Ryan are asking for just to pay for the added interest, not even about reducing the size of the U.S. debt. This would be a disaster for the U.S. Treasury, so we're stuck with really low rates. The term used by economists is "financial repression." Savers and retirees will have to put up with low returns. Lowering unemployment is only one aspect of U.S. Fed policy, the other aspect is in the constraints Bernake faces....

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Powell needs agreement of others on Fed Board to set US interest rates August 2025. There is now a divergence of opinion with some Fed members looking to lower interest rates in coming months to aid the US economy as it resets the terms of world trade for a level playing field for all, something that had not happened by the ineptitude of previous presidents.

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The U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, lowers interest rates by lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 1% to 1.25%. A drop in consumer spending, in travel, tourism, and the worldwide impact on supply chains in manufacturing, is expected to reduce growth. The move was intended to offset this.

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Bond issuance for African countries will continue in 2015 at a slower pace with the expectation of U.S. Fed raising interest rates in late 2015. In 2013 African countries raised $11 billion, and in 2014 $8 billion, compared to $1 billion in 2000, as these countries from Nigeria to Ghana raised money to finance infrastructure development. Ivory Coast plans to raise $1 billion in coming months, Tanzania plas to issue a dollar denominated bond. Senegal, Angola, Kenya and Ethiopia are issuing bonds to western investors and competing with other developing countries such as Bolivia, Guatemala and Romania for investors. Analysts say countries such as Ivory Coast, with a growth rate of 8% and prudently managed finances are considered "good issuers" in today's market.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Dec. 13, 2016, that it would increase its benchmark short term interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, to between 0.50% and 0.75%. The increase will also be reflected in business and household borrowing costs. The Fed also announced its intention to make 0.75% percentage point increase in 2017, possibly in 3 quarter percentage point moves. The Fed's forecast is for the fed-funds rate to reach 2.1% at the end of 2018, and 2.9% at the end of 2019. The Fed's policy is based on a sense of strong labor market with unemployment falling, and says it is based on discussion at a 2 day meeting, and "in view of realized and expected labor-market conditions and inflation." This reflects a view that there is now not that much slack in the labor market, that further improvements could trigger higher inflation. Fed forecasts for inflation are for it to increase from 1.5% in 2016 to 1.9% in 2017 and to the target of 2% in 2018. The unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2016 is forecast to go to 4.5% in 2017 and remain at that level till 2019. Economic growth is forecast at a median annual rate of 1.9% in 2016, 2.1% in 2017, only a slight improvement from last forecast in Sept. 2016. Support for chairwoman Yellen's policy decision was unanimous. See the link on views of NYT's Binyamin Applebaum and Neil Irwin on how Fed rate policy and economic growth under the Trump administration is likely to play out, and Ian Talley's report on impact on exports with a stronger dollar in WSJ. These views also are in line with the Fed's forecasts and policy decision as they reflect the concerns of the Fed about inflation, and also reflect the Fed's view that growth will be close to 2% in 2017-2019, and not the 3-4% stated by Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Fed rate policies to keep inflation at about 2% tend to counter stimulus spending by the Trump administration and effect of tax cuts. The size of the stimulus and the tax cuts are also likely to be much smaller than stated because of Republican concerns about the deficit in the U.S. Congress, according to these views. The stronger dollar also has the paradoxical effect of making trade gains more difficult while increasing trade friction in tougher bargaining supported by Trump, making the higher growth targets harder to reach.   ...

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In a policy shift the Bank of England's Governor, Mark Carney, announces that the central bank will keep interest rates low and bond purchases at the current level till the unemployment rate drops to 7%. This is similiar to the policy action of the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, to keep interest rates low till the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%. Carney said conditions under which this could change are if inflation increased or financial stability was affected by the easy monetary policy. He said: "Our biggest concern is the possibility that as the recovery gathers pace, that there is an unwarranted change in expectations about the pace of the withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus." "That is one of the principal points of providing explicit forward guidance." BOE said the official unemployment rate was 7.8% in the three months to May, and it is unlikely to decline to the 7% level till early 2016. The inflation rate for Britain was 2.9% in June. The higher inflation rate is partly due to the higher taxes and large increase in university tution fees which are unlikely to be repeated. The BOE's Monetary Policy Committee sees inflation declining to 2% by 2015....

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Hilsenrath describes how the Federal Reserve missed the signs of the mortgage financial crisis of 2008, the bubble economy, and how low interest rates and other actions of the Fed to rescue the economy led to a situation which hurt savers. The lack of a serious plan for homeowner rescue as part of the actions by the government further hurt the working and middle class. The rescue also lacked credibility because the banks ended up becoming bigger than they were, and no action was taken in the U.S. which had been pushed by the U.S. in similiar situations overseas- for example on South Korean banks for overborrowing during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.  At the 2014 Boston Fed sponsored conference on Inequality, Fed chairman Janet Yellen described what she called the largest inequality in the U.S. not seen since the 19th century. The average net worth of the lower half of the distribution, said Yellen, of 62 million households, was $11,000, and a quarter of them had zero net worth. These were the shocking statistics that propelled two unlikely outsiders forward- Donald Trump to the Republican nomination for president, and Bernie Sanders who coming close to getting the Democratic nomination settled for a big part of setting the Democratic agenda supported by nominee Clinton in 2016. ...

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The Japanese stock market index Topix dropped 6.1 percent on August 2, 2024. What caused this is the Japanese yen going from 161 to the US dollar to 150. The strengthening of the yen comes as the markets sensed two things- one the US Fed considering a rate cut based on employment and inflation reports, and the Bank of Japan raising rates. The rate increase of the Bank of Japan leads to a shrinking of the wide interest rate gap between Japan and the US. That gap had shifted money in Japan in the direction of US holdings. On Aug 5 the Nikkei 22 Index dropped 12.2 percent. It rebounded on August 6 by 11%. By August 7 the Nikkei 225 index was up another 1.2 percent. The situation can be summed up by saying that the Nikkei settled into a situation which recognized some strengthening of the yen to 151 to the US dollar. The fundamentals for the US and for Japan have not changed.

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The US added 167,000 jobs in July 2023 from a month earlier, according to the Labor Department, less than 200,000 anticipated. Higher population numbers and higher labor force participation rates offset the increasing  number of retired people in the US. More people added to the population from immigration and more younger people participating in prime age under 54. This means the US is where it would like to be with the Fed not having to increase rates that much in coming months, says Justin Lahart of WSJ. The Labor Department increased its estimates of population by 867,000, and the labour force participation for prime age is up to 84%. These are good signals for the US economy, that there is room for more jobs growth and income growth with an unemployment rate at 3.5%, and less need for increasing interest rates by the Fed.

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A strong jobs report means interest rate cuts from the Fed are less likely. The US December jobs report shows 256,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate edging down to 4.1%.

 

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The US economy declined by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2022 or 0.9% on an annualized basis. What does this mean? NYT provides a look with a breakdown of where this comes from. Business and residential construction went down by 11-12% as they are interest rate sensitive sectors and the Fed has raised interest rates by 0.75 of a percentage point twice in 12 months. Yet consumer spending was holding up and increased by 1% in the second quarter. 

Fed chairman Powell told a conference yesterday that he still sees a pickup in spending in the second half of 2022 as buyer balance sheets are good, the labor market is strong, and wages are increasing.

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UBS and Bank of America reach a settlement with Detroit before the city declared bankruptcy. The settlement was for interest rate swap contracts signed by Detroit officials in 2005, and settles the contracts for 75 cents on the dollar or $230 million. There is safe harbor for traders and banks in interest rate swaps or derivative contracts, so that the usual stay that blocks creditors from collecting debts does not operate. This kind of treatment for derivative contracts makes no logical sense in the context say experts. The swap contracts of 2005 were signed at a time the city took out a $1.4 billion variable interest rate loan to put into its pension funds, with the swaps as a hedge against rising interest rates. In fact Detroit is seeking a $350 million loan from Barclays Capital and it needs to resolve the swap for that loan. From this loan UBS and Bank of America get their $230 million leaving $120 million for streetlights, police and city services badly needed today. Public interest considerations of this kind were not considered by Congress when it made the rule for safe harbors universal in derivative contracts to reduce systemic risk of one financial institution dragging others into a systemic crisis. The safe harbor make it harder for a judge to say this thing smells and make attempts to change it. ...

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The yen is at 134 to the dollar in June 2022 having dropped by 22% in 2022. The US Fed is increasing rates while the Bank of Japan is keeping its low interest rate policy. Japan's inflation is at 2.5% compared to 8.6% in April 2022 for the US. The last time the central bank intervened to buy dollar was in 1998 with severe yen overvaluation which is not the case now. The yen's weakening means the parts Japan imports from its supply chain in Asia now cost much more.

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After inflation drops to 2.3% in the eurozone in December 2024 the British pound rises to 1.21 euros and 1.04 US dollars. The ECB says its decision to cut rates to 3% was a result of inflation forecasts showing a further drop in inflation to 1.9% by 2026. Growth in eurozone was also updated to 0.7% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. 

The Fed is likely to make a further interest rate cut and the Bank of England keep it steady at 4.75%.