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Warming of oceans by climate change cause US hurricanes Helene and Milton 2024. Ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico is much higher in October 2024 than the average heat content 2013-2023, as shown in this NYT chart. At a single glance one can see climate change at work. This is real America. And FEMA is stretched thin, not adequately funded for the natural disasters happening all over the US, yet Congress has failed to act, and the AI billionaires shown in today's NYT piece "Imperial Reach," talk about trillions of dollars they wish to divert from essential needs of the Nation in climate change action, disaster relief, childcare, health, and education, more than the GDP of European nations. In effect writing off the Nation's future and future generations.  

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Garlic, ginger, turmeric and similar products are vital for healthy living and healthy food. So it is surprising that so little has been done before the Trump tariffs on Chinese food dumped in the U.S. This BBC report by Pamela Parker says 1994 was when the U.S. confirmed dumping by China of garlic yet the tariff that was placed was of an ineffective type that could be circumvented. As a result the U.S. producers such as Vessey in California that produced garlic for 100 years and 5 generations decided to not produce it beside cauliflower and cabbage. Of the surviving producers one producer today in California produces 100 million pounds of this product that has value way beyond the actual dollars as vital for healthy food supplies in the U.S. In fact after reports of contaminated water supplies in China imports of ginger and other such food products have been shifted away from China.  It is well known that the industrial revolution in China came too quickly and at a large cost to the environment after 1990 including contamination of the water, rivers. For this reason it is stunning that the people setting trade policy in Washington could have ignored the vital need of U.S. meeting food needs for healthy living out of its own soil and trusted farming community. To not have done so and let producers of garlic or ginger or other such vital food products to sustain health to go out of business is nothing less than a part of the growing calamity of self inflicted wounds that have happened so far. At no time more compelling an issue as today in the pandemic. The truth is that when it comes to healthy food supplies it is vitally important, as important as national security. And local supplies grown in one's own state or country particularly for vegetables, herbs, and fruit, are very critical. There is no way to even compare product grown locally to product grown in any country where water supplies may be contaminated by rapid industrial growth. ...

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The new prime minister of Japan Yoshihide Suga is critical of the three phone carriers forming an oligopoly and keeping prices for mobile phone service in Japan very high. Another criticism is that Japan has failed to compete in phone technologies by staying out of world markets that would improve its competitive spirit. Japan has failed to keep up with China and other countries in mobile technologies. 

As part of the first step to change this and make NTT competitive by entering world markets, NTT is paying a 41% premium on the part of NTT Docomo that it does not own in a $40 billion deal. NTT chief Sawada sees this as a way to speed up decision making, as he sees a crisis in Japan's struggle to compete with China and the U.S. in world markets.

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This BBC independent review into its economic coverage by Dilnot and Blastland covered by The Guardian, shows that economics has been badly presented and mostly misunderstood in the culture and the media, leading to errors in policy that hurt workers and families in Britain and the US. Tory spending cuts in Britain have led to a lost 400 billion pounds in growth since 2010, says The Guardian citing the TUC report. Britain's GDP would be 2 trillion pounds higher today if the pre-1979 growth rate was maintained, says TUC. This editorial says about the framing of the debt and spending in the culture and media- "It is an anti-democratic bias that shuts people out of discussion about their lives and their society."

 

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Jos Biden loves to talk about his Irish ancestors. This Times report takes an in depth look at Irishmen in America and how Biden uses his Irishness to activate his progressive base. For many years in the twentieth century Irishmen were active in American Catholic progressive politics. Many states in the northeast of the country have large Irish populations including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Delaware, and New York. About 10-15% of the population in these states being Irish. About 34 million people having Irish ancestry in the US. forming a significant voting bloc. Biden carries an appeal to this bloc of voters that overrides local politics. Only John F. Kennedy, another president with Irish grand parents had this kind of appeal in American politics.

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The Guardian looks back at 2023 and covers the work of scientists from US, Germany and Brazil showing the damage. NASA scientist James Hansen tells The Guardian that with the current stage of politics and inaction on climate change young people in the world need to take over. Scientists at the Japan Meteorological Agency measured temperatures at 0.53 degrees centigrade higher than the global average 1990 -2021. This was higher than the previous high reached in 2016 of 0.35 degrees centigrade. Over the long term the world is considered to be 1.2 degrees hotter than preindustrial times, by experts. Included is the report "Hothouse Earth" by the Potsdam Institute of Climate research and other experts on the speed of the global warming.

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The US oil embargo in 2022 is not a big decision for president Biden. The US only imports 3% of its oil and 1% of its coal from combatant nations in Europe's east. 70% of the oil from that region cannot find buyers because of sanctions risk says the WSJ. This WSJ view from the Editorial Board says Biden's policy of not boosting US fossil fuels production is contrary to what makes sense in the current situation of high oil prices. Seen from the point of view of US commitments at COP26 Glasgow and global warming effects on the planet, president Biden's commitment to boost renewable energy and use this as an opportunity to make the US less dependent on fossil fuels presents an alternate perspective. One that is needed looking beyond the situation that is faced in 2022.

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The Paris climate change agreement involved 195 countries. Agreed to on December 12, 2015 it was seen as a major step forward to limit global warming to 2 degrees celsius or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Progress has been slow in taking action since then. Because of covid 19 the Glasgow conference was cancelled. Hope stems from the goals set for carbon neutral economy of Japan, the EU, UK, China, and the U.S. as it enters the agreement after withdrawing.  Much will depend on action taken as the pandemic has pushed economic goals of recovery to the forefront. As India has shown in renewable energy, particularly in solar energy targets and bold vision, there is a lot that can be done by each country acting on its own without the hype of the agreement. India now sees huge opportunities in solar energy because it is cheaper and pollutes less than coal. This is a game changer that comes from investing in new technologies and taking advantage of India's abundant access to sunny weather and the lower labor and other costs. ...

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Fronterra Cooperative Group Ltd. cuts it forecast payout for the current dairy season to 4.70 New Zealand dollars per kilo (U.S. $3.70) for milk solids, a sharp decline from NZ$8.40 in 2013. This reduces farmer incomes by NZ$6 billion. Farmers are culling herds and cutting the size of farms as it becomes unprofitable to remain in dairy farming. Milk makes up 30% of overseas sales for New Zealand. Lending to farmers increased 42% since 2008 to NZ$34.5 billion.

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Hubbard and Erdbrink report on U.S. president Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia to begin a new chapter in relations with the Gulf nations and the Saudis. Under president Obama the U.S. distanced itself from the Saudis and the Gulf nations, preferring to pursue a policy of closer relations with Iran and signing the Iran nuclear deal. This included a policy of staying out of Syria to the point of turning down a decision to deploy U.S. airpower to maintain no-fly zones to protect refugees. Syrian government forces fighting rebels were supported by Iran. The new policy is dictated by the new conditions in the Middle East. The U.S. has sought since the presidency of Reagan to balance the power relations in the region. With the nuclear deal signed and Iran respecting the deal according to independent reports, the U.S. allied with Iran in the battle against Islamic State in Iraq,  a shift was needed to balance the support provided to Iran by Russia which worsened the refugee crisis in Syria. The Republican party and Mr. Trump were critical of the Obama Iran policy during the nuclear deal negotiations. The safety of Israel is also a factor as non-state actors were supported by Iran threatening Israeli security. For these reasons the shift is an effort to rebalance the relations in the region. The arms deal in its size and president Trump's statement that Iran had "fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror," can be seen as this rebalancing. A business aspect of the large arms deal is that it will promote job growth in the defense industry in the U.S.. Other countries including Germany have seen growth in their defense industry. This is not the best way forward for the Middle East, yet it is a way the U.S. and nations in the region are adjusting to realities- the collapse of the Arab Spring from within and without the help from outside, the sectarian conflict arising from the Shiite pushback from Iran following the Baathist and Sunni control of Iraq which collapsed with the U.S.invasion, where the majority of people are Shiite yet with a strong Sunni presence. Elections brought Shiites in power, leading to a Sunni response in the form of Islami State caliphate move into Mosul, Iraq's second largest city after Baghdad. A decade of conflict and the efforts by the Bush administration ended in failure and sectarian conflict, resulting in the U.S. policy of rebalancing in favor of Iran to negotiate the nuclear deal. In this sense the arms deal does not solve anything. A similar rebalancing under Reagan by arming one side, followed by arming the other, led to involvement with ground forces under president Bush. It only leaves the region poor after years of sanctions against Iran to the point where a NYT reporter was not sure whether it was safe to fly from Tehran to Mashad with Iran Air because of the lack of spare parts for the airline. War torn, with millions of refugees in Syria and Iraq, the region remains broken in many ways, waiting for a sensible non sectarian view to prevail in the interest of the people in the region. The election of Rouhani in Iran by 57% of the vote is only a sign that young people in the region given a chance would opt for a different course in future. The rest of Asia has moved forward and shows a path that can be followed. ...

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This astounding story in WSJ by Jiyoung Sohn in Seoul and Yang Jie from Tokyo, shows how South Korea stopped the illegal transfer to China of entire  computer chip factory setup information of Samsung by a South Korean engineer in Singapore. This shows president Biden has accomplished what no other president has been able to do in the last 40 years. Biden brought Japan and South Korea together reminding them that their differences over wartime occupation can be overcome, leading to the US, Japan and South Korea forming  close cooperation in 2023. After all it was the US that helped setup the democratic framework in the two Asian neighbors after 1945. This story shows how the problem of South Korean and Japanese technologies illegally transferred is being tackled by both countries in 2023. This is part of overall cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region that includes India and Australia, for an open Indo-Pacific region based on the rule of law. ...

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Neil Irwin in the NYT why the U.S. China Phase 1 Trade Agreement is more than a hill of soyabeans as he puts it, more than about all the soyabeans that the U.S. farmers can sell to China. China's economy was seeing the effect of U.S. tariffs. Additional tariffs to cover all imports from China to the U.S. would have worsened this. China avoided this by agreeing to Phase 1. The U.S. had looked for some enforcement mechanism based on China putting this down in a written agreement particularly for avoiding subsidies to state enterprises and improper access to U.S. advanced technologies. China's reluctance to do this led to Mr. Trump saying that China had reversed its position and Trump expanding the tariffs stage by stage. These issues are now set aside for Phase 2 still to be negotiated. Both sides taking what they could get. China relief from the threat of tariffs on all exports. The U.S. under Mr. Lighthizer's negotiating leadership retaining the enforcement idea through the tariffs that are still in place of 25% on half of China's exports to the U.S. The bonus for Mr. Trump is the goodwill China generates by agreeing to buy all the U.S. farmers can produce, farmers having not only stood behind Mr. Trump but also forming a key part of his support base. China will continue to compete in technological areas with the U.S., and the state enterprise model which worked for China as Mr. Xi tells visitors will continue. Phase 2 is just that Phase 2, when and if it can be negotiated between Trump with his negotiator Lighthizer and Xi with his negotiator Liu He. On key points neither side is budging. A key goal for Mr. Trump is to put the trade surplus China enjoys of $300 plus billion a year with the U.S. on a serious downward path, and bring so many of the jobs and manufacturing back home. On this trade data for 2019 and the plan for 2020 of both countries is clear. It should be down each year by 10-20% for the next few years, a major achievement of Mr. Lighthizer, who did the same with  Japan under president Reagan. ...

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India's development of the India Middle East Corridor with rail and infrastructure links is a plan that is pursued with cooperation of Saudis, UAE, Kuwait and Gulf region. This is an economic development plan that seeks to invest in the entire South and West Asian region. Just as Europe after 2 wars has emerged from that with the French, Germans, Spain, Italy and Eastern Europe forming  the European Economic Community that later became the European Union, the Gulf states and India which faces the Gulf states across the Arabian Sea are seen as one region that can trade with the European bloc and the US on better terms. A lot of the investments that were wasted in wars are now being channelled into infrastructure development and regional development with resources of manpower from India and with assistance from the US. Le Monde should say that it is good for all- geopolitics and socialist or religious ideologies led to so many wars in the Middle East. Modi is from Gujarat where priorities are not religion- priorities are trade and the economy since the overseas trade from the 14th century. ...

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How China's coal gasification projects can contribute to global warming by the co2 emissions that they create. China is fast tracking a lot of coal gasification plants but not much effort or attention is being given to the carbon dixide that it will generate . And technologies to capture and store the carbon dioxide emissions are nowhere near being a reality. China will soon pass the U.S. as the largest source of greenhouse gases in the world.

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From 2007 to 2022 Alberta contributed $180 billion more to federal government than it received. Alberta holds the fourth largest oil reserves in the world and contributes as much to the Canadian economy as the financial and manufacturing industries of Ontario. Because of the Liberals running federal policy away from fossil fuels no pipelines are being built for Albertan oil and Alberta is not getting the support it needs. Public opinion in Alberta is for joining the US (20%) or forming its own separate state (30%) because of a decade of Trudeau's Liberal policies. New PM Mark Carney is trying to move away from Liberal policies and find ways to meet the concerns of Albertans.

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Mandelson and Schwab oinst fingers at eaach other.Mandelson is the top Eu trade negotiator and Schwab represented the USA. Mandelson point to schwab protecting its cotton lobby and US farm interests. Critical for China and India is protecting their food security and growing enough so they do have to depend on imports to feed their 2 billion people. And also the need to protect the poor farmers in both countries as both countries have hundreds of millions of people in the rural interior who earn their livelihood by farming. And even though China has expanded in industrial production much of the industrialization is in the areas near the coast, with a vast rural farming countryside.

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1.1 million EVs were sold in US in 2024, compared to 1.4 million hybrids. Hybrids have made a comeback as sales of electric cars are slowing in US in 2024. Constraints being lack of enough charging stations, price of electric cars still high, driving range limited before recharge. Hybrid car sales are surging helping Toyota after a too cautious entry into EV's. Now the Biden administration is looking at the targets and how to make the transition smoother. Toyota is pushing back on strict environmental rules that expect 67% of cars to be electric by 2032.  The 2021 executive order by president Biden was for 50% target by 2030 and this included hybrids.  The gradual shift would make it less costly for the public to replace the cars and help first time buyers wanting to try it out do this with hybrids as an option. As a quick guide 12000 pounds of carbon dioxide for global warming are given out by gasoline only cars, half or 6000 pounds by hybrids like Toyota's, and half again 3000 pounds of carbon dioxide by all electric like BYD China's or Tesla/GM/VW. The actual numbers are confirmed by Dept of Energy 2022, and MIT 2019 studies- 2727 pounds all electric, 6898 pounds hybrid, and 12594 pounds all gasoline. ...

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China's military exercises for air and sea blockade of Taiwan raise the political risk of doing business in China says this report in WSJ. It raises the risk level for American corporations such as Apple and Boeing and others, that have large investments in China. The escalating tension and freeze in relations between the US and China is a watershed moment says the WSJ. Looking back years from now it may be the year following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine that tensions took on a level that would lead to acceleration of the building of new supply chains for the US and European Union in Asia that separate from China. The Trump years as president escalated trade tensions and tensions over origins of Covid. The war in Ukraine and China's siding with Russia and forming a "no limits" partnership with Russia have created serious rethinking of the entire relationship from supply chains to defense. US president Biden sees Ukraine's defense as a way of showing that an attack on one country by a neighbor in violation of international law is not acceptable to the US, and particularly in the context of China's relations with Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific countries. In this situation the US is taking the initiative in the war in Ukraine with Gen. Cavoli at US Headquarters in Europe assisting in the effort to repel Russian aggression, and also send a message to China on the importance the US sees in not allowing this kind of violation of international law. ...

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Everything you might want to know about coffee, where it comes from, how cultivation is changing with climate change and higher temperatures, and the effort to map the coffee genome. With higher temperatures the farming of coffee moves to higher altitudes in coffee growing countries in the tropics, but it is easier to cross breed the 124 varieties to produce a plant that can withstand the change in temperatures and one that can resist fungus.  A coffee fungus and higher altitude rains destroyed much of the crop in Central America including Guatemala. This led to increased migration to Mexico and U.S. of farmers leading up to Mr. Trump's plan to have the National Guard of Mexico police Mexico's border with Guatemala.  Coffee is a sensitive plant and needs cooler weather and water which is found more in the tropics. Growing it in California or in Italy makes it very costly leading to Frinj coffee being sold in California at $16 a cup. Climate change could reduce the area where coffee can be grown by about 50% in the tropical countries from South east Asia to African countries such as Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia, and in south America Colombia and Brazil, says Climate Institute, Washington DC based climate change experts.   ...

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The importance of not letting small dairy farms close all over the northeastern United States, including dairy farms in New York, Vermont and Maine, is shown here in NYT. Some of these farms go back to 1772  over many generations. Dairy farming is hard work and the family farms with each less than 100 cows are not just dairy farms but a part of New England and North East culture, heritage, and landscape. Ensuring that milk processing facilities exist for organic dairy farms in their regional area is important now that Horizon is shifting to the western states such as Colorado and California for its organic milk pasteurization pickup and processing.  French television TVMonde shows in a documentary how small family owned Swiss dairy farms struggled for years at low milk prices of 75 centimes per liter and were able to get 1 Swiss Franc per liter after many protests. Dairy farms are an important part of the culture, heritage and landscape of Switzerland. By getting a Fair Milk label and direct payments from the government small dairy farms in the Swiss countryside are able to pass on the farm to the next generation. Similar action is needed in the US as farms with 500 cows called factory farms in Colorado and Texas are putting additional stress on family owned farms with less than 100 cows in the northeastern US. The rule for pasture is key to having organic label yet this report in NYT cites Maine agriculture commissioner that this is not rigorously applied for these factory farms in the western states, and other rules for classifying which cows are organic are also not rigorously applied. Following the pandemic there needs to be increased awareness of the importance of keeping small dairy farms operating and being passed on to a new generation of young farmers, men and women, with the encouragement and support of state and federal government in the US. ...

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Emmanuel Macron graduated from Sciences Po University in 2004 with a degree in public affairs. He joins the Finance Ministry as an inspector and then buys himself out of government service contract by 2008 to join a private bank. He arranges an acquisition from Nestle and other business deals during this period. In 2012 he is appointed as deputy secretary general for the president's office after Francois Hollande a socialist is elected to the presidency. In 2014 he is offered the position of Minister of Industry and Digital Affairs in the second Manuel Valls government. He makes some changes to French government but opposes the wealth tax or tax on business, and is generally pro-business, though he acts as a member of the Socialist party.  He uses this period to build momentum for his own run for the presidency as support for Hollande falters having lost support from his working class base with Macron and Valls inspired changes.  Macron finally announces he will run for the presidency forming his own En Marche movement which he finances with his own fund raising. Throughout this period right up to the election in 2017 Macron has not run for public office. When he wins the presidency in that year he lacks the experience needed as the youngest president in French history at the age of 39. Like another young president Obama he handles his public image with the media for his En Marche movement promising to unblock France. This public image and his lack of experience makes him impervious to the social changes going on in France that lead to the yellow vest protests in 2018. This is a period when there are changes in the midwest as workers in Michigan and other midwestern states turn away from Hillary Clinton and Obama.  French workers are in the position of workers in the US with the decline of manufacturing, much of it shifted with the supply chain to China and Japan, and the gap opening between rural and urban tech educated areas. Macron follows Obama's quick rise from Senator to run for president yet lacks experience, and lacks sufficient grasp of the social changes with loss of manufacturing, the wide gaps between rural and urban tech educated people, conditions in the rural and farming areas. Macron survives this period, is reelected in 2022 with the help of socialist Melenchon voters. He says he will govern differently, less distant from average Frenchmen, but his instincts are to push for pension reform. At a time of cost of living crisis, and when the French budget office says the change in pension from 62 to 64 was not critical at the present time when inflation was hitting the public after the pandemic. Macron does this by Article 49 in the way he has done under the Manuel Valls government, by executive action alone. This time he faces a no confidence motion in parliament in March 2023 following some of the largest protests France has seen in years, with two thirds of the French according to FR24 opposing the change in pension law. Women see this as coming at a time when age discrimination hurts their chances of earning a living after 50 years of age.  Age discrimination is widespread in France, in a way it is not in Germany, say reports in the NYT. And with the cost of living crisis acts as a major hurdle for the average French person, if pensions are delayed without addressing these cultural issues in France. The result is that the protests have substance and Macron is seen as not sensitive to this at a time when he lacks a majority in parliament. ...

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Friedman calls for a third party candidate to bring a focus on the issues facing the U.S. - winding down the war in Afghanistan, increasing fuel economy and conservation to reduce dependence on foreign oil inclusing a gasoline tax, enacting the proposals of the Simpson-Bowles Commission which eliminates or reduces tax expenditures and reduces spending, and provides any needed fiscal support for the short run. He says the two party duopoly is not working and even if the third party succeeds only in framing the debate and the issues in a constructive and useful way, it will have achieved something significant.

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President Obama told a press conference after the Supreme Court hearings on the healthcare law: "For years, what we've heard is the biggest problem on the bench was judicial activism or the lack of judicial restraint, that an unelected group of people would somehow overturn a duly constituted and passed law." In doing so Obama was framing the argument he might use should the Court rule against the law, putting the Supreme Court in the role of villain placing its judgement ahead of elected representatives, as the U.S. moves into the presidential election in November 2012.

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Moore points out that there are twice as many people working for the government in the U.S. (22.5 million) than in manufacturing (11.5 million). In 1960, the situation was quite different, there were 15 million workers in manufacturing and 8.7 million working for the government. More workers in the U.S. work for the government than in construction, farming, fishing, forestry, manufacturing, mining and utilites put together. Every state in the U.S. has more people working for the government- except for Indiana and Wisconsin- than people in manufacturing industrial goods. And California has 2.4 million government workers, which is twice the number in manufacturing in that state. New York and Florida have a 3:1 ratio, and New Jersey a 2.5:1 ratio of government workers to workers making industrial goods. Part of the reason for this is the huge increase in productivity and the advances in technology that make it possible to have higher production with fewer workers. This kind of productivity is missing in the government sector. And efforts to improve productivity tend to be blocked by the unions who favor the status quo....

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A heart warming story of aging well of a world class Masters swimmer who stays fit at 89, Gail Roper can be an inspiration for people wanting to live healthy into an advanced age. She was a national champion by the time of the 1952 Olympic games in Helsinki, FInland. At 44 she started swimming in Masters competitions. She thinks one should not need a walker when one is growing old, provided one has plenty of exercize. She says she could be competing even now except for her driving. She lives in a senior community and swims 2000 yards everyday in an outdoor pool. Her daily routine includes, 20 sit-ups while watching the news, 20 push-ups against her kitchen sink between washing dishes, 200 revolutions on her stationary bike, 100 steps on her stair stepper, resistance bands to stretch. Want to stay straight up and down, and not crouched or humped over, then you must work at it says Gail Roper. Its that simple. It means working lives don't end when you retire, just take different shapes and adopt new routines. She speaks to 5 people everyday as a rule to keep up social skills. And she reads as well to keep her brain active. Gail starts the day with a cup of Nespresso coffee, granola and fruit, and adds yogurt. Snacks on walnuts, almonds and dried fruit throughout the day. Her main meal is lunch which includes a salad and beverage where she spends time with other people at the seniors center. Dinners are small portions. On Sundays its pizza and wine. Thats it! Secret to healthy living for the retired and older people.   ...