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What the US wanted in the initial hours- use of Diego Garcia base and RAF base in Haverford Gloucestershire. UK's Keir Starmer first denied use of the bases and till he could verify US attacks were within international law. When Iran responded with a a barrage of drones and ballistic missiles 840 drones and 340 ballistic missiles and attacked the British base RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, suddenly Starmer saw the opportunity to justify US use of British bases on defensive grounds. DJT called the British response "very disappointing." Starmer told parliament-  "To be clear, the use of British bases is limited to the agreed defensive purposes; we are not joining the US and Israeli offensive strikes. The lessons of history have taught us that it is important when we make decisions like this, that we establish there is a lawful basis for what the United Kingdom is doing. That is one of the lessons from Iraq, and that there's a viable thought-through plan with an objective that can be achieved or has a viable prospect of being achieved.That is the principle that I applied to the decisions that I made over the weekend. This government does not believe in regime change from the skies." The situation Starmer faces domestically is that voters for Reform UK and Conservatives support full use of the airbases. Voters who vote for Liberals, Greens and Labour do not support use of the British airbases. Local elections in which Labour is seen losing a large share of its 2024 vote to Greens and Liberals is one factor the premier had in mind, in addition to issues in the war in Iraq.  Another is the consideration that Britain has a large presence in the Gulf from the days of the Empire when they were British colonies.Already in 24 hours 100,000 Britons have registered for help in the Gulf region. Britishers run much of the tourism, airlines and other business in the Gulf region as the Gulf states are small in area, with small populations and a large population from South Asia for certified migrant labor, and British managers at the higher levels. When Iran attacked UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia with drones and ballistic missiles it was clear that Britain was also being attacked though the attack on the RAF base in Cyprus was cited. ...

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The Guardian gives this story of Khamanei's rule in Iran after 1989. He was made president in 1981 in a landslide win at that time just 2 years after the revolution in 1979 that toppled the Shah of Iran's monarchial regime. Khamanei comes from a the family of a modest cleric in the town of Mashaad who was immersed in the anticolonial writings coming out of Arab North Africa's liberation movements. His policy towards Israel and the US, difficult relations with Arab countries in the neighborhood, and pursuit of nuclear weapons technologies, led Iran to become isolated and face sanctions that hurt its economy and its oil industry for three decades. It created its own version of governing and in setting up proxy militias but this resulted in huge investments diverted from the economy of Iran, neglect of its oil industry and production under western sanctions, that led to economy collapsing and student protests every decade. This expanded in 2025 to broad sections of the population calling for a new direction. Protests were suppressed leading to a disconnect with the people by 2026. To truly understand Iran one has to step back to the 1900's ( as one must also do to understand China or India), as Iran was ruled by the Qajar dynasty at the time. The first Majlis parliament was set up in Iran in 1906 -with the help of "good" Britishers like the British agent in Rajkot who helped send Gandhi to London to study law- wished to see a constitutional setup similar to Britain and limit the powers of the monarchy so that reforms in agriculture and in the civil service could be made. It lasted until 1908. At the time other Britishers in the British Empire both in India and in London sought to maintain British influence and keep out Russian influence. It was not a coincidence that the Majlis lasted only till 1908. That year in 1908 the first discovery of oil in West Asia was made in Khozestan province by George Reynolds, with investor backing of William D'Arcy. The following year 1909 the Anglo-Persian Oil Company( later Anglo Iranian Oil Company and later British Petroleum) was formed. The oil concession was given by the Shah from Qajar dynasty. From that time on Iran became the scene of oil company interests, monarchial interests first under Qajar dynaasty and then under Pahlavis dynasty (which set itself up like Napoleon II in France from humble origins, after 1925 to replace the Qajar dynasty), and the emerging middle class lawyer and civil service, agricultural landowners class, all competing for power and influence in a Asian region with Shihite Islamic embedded in the fabric of the society. Power swung to different groups from 1925 onwards for 5 decades to the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Pahlavi temporary replacement monarchy that worked with British oil interests. West Asia became a meeting point for anticolonial writings emerging from Arab North Africa and other places that took the form of and led to a socialist style anticolonial Baathist influnce that overthrew a monarchy in Baghdad Iraq in the "Free Officers" coup of June 14, 1958 led by Karim Kassem. Out of that Pan Arabic Iraqi mood emerged S. Hussein who with weapons systems imported from the US and Europe initiated the war with Iran in 1980. The Iranian counterrevolutionary movement to Iraq began from that time with the leadership of Khomeni and Khameni from 1981. This is what one has seen swing back and forth in the West Asian region for about 5 decades to 2026, the regional Arab states mostly Sunni monarchies ranged against Iran with its Shiite and also modernizing population. US oil interests in Arab monarchies of the West Asian region from the time of FDR's meeting with Saudi's Faisal in the WWII period clashed with Iranian public interests competing with oil interests (US and British) allied to monarchial interests, and the emergence of Shiite Islamic authority in Iran in these clashes. Iranian public interests that started out with the Majlis and parliaments set up by the "good Britishers" never got a chance in Iran just as the modernizing effort of Sun Yat Sen in China in the 1900's never got a chance in the middle of the surviving monarchy in China by 1910, and the Japanese colonial interests in China from that time competing with the Nationalists Koumintang and the Communist Chinese workers movements emerging in the 1930's, all competing for influence during the Chinese civil war and in its aftermath the emergence of Mao and the CCP of China. This is the situation we in the world face today. ...

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Solomon and Said give a detailed account of the events leading to the steep decline in oil prices to $61 a barrel by December 2014. The steep declines have caused a shock for OPEC and non-OPEC producers. A price decline of this magnitude may not have been anticipated by the Saudis, and there are divisions among Saudi officials and in the royal family about whether such steep cuts are best for Saudi Arabia. The price per barrel of oil for each OPEC country to balance its budget varies widely, according to IMF and IEA, WSJ, sources. For Saudi Arabia this estimate is $106, Iraq 101, for Russia $98. The Saudis have $750 billion in foreign currency reserves. At the high end are Libya at $184, Iran at $131, Algeria $131, Nigeria $122, Venezuela $117. The UAE is at $77, Qatar $60. Norway is at the low end at $40. On Dec. 19, 2014 the price of Brent crude, ICE for Jan. delivery was $61.38.

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Heavy foreign borrowings from Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, help sustain the Turkish economy in 2022. Private companies reduce their non lira borrowings after dollar borrowings became unsustainable. Inflation reaching a high of 80% is likely to ease in 2023 to 20% in line with global inflation in other countries. Turkey's current account deficit is about 0.3 billion in November, down from 2.9 billion the prior month as global energy prices decline. The dollar is coming down from its peak and central banks are expected to bring rates down with slowing inflation. The net international reserves have reached $23 billion. A 60% drop in the currency has increased tourism revenues. Mr. Erdogan is likely to run again for president in 2023, which will be his last run for the presidency. 

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Hubbard and Kirkpatrick in this report say Prince Salman, at 32 years one of the youngest rulers in the Middle East, has taken steps that his predecessors had shied away from. It cites the war in Yemen against Iranian faction, blockade of Qatar, and taking power from conservative clerics. This report points out that this could destabilize the efforts at modernizing Saudi Arabia that are needed because Saudi Arabia may find itself overextended in proxy wars, and ambitious projects. The Saudi financial reserves have fallen from $737 billion to $475 billion, with declining oil prices, and the public stock offering of Aramco oil company may be jeopardized. 

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Saudis unilaterally cut prices of crude oil without consultation with other members of OPEC at the beginning of Oct. 2014. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi says there is not much point in talking to other members of OPEC as everyone does as they please. The old cooperation between Gulf states Qatar, U.A.E., Kuwait and Saudi Arabia is breaking down with each country backing different rebel factions against the Assad regime in Syria-Iraq. Ali al-Naimi who normally comes in ahead of the OPEC meetings in Vienna, which meet twice a year, arrived this time at the last minute. He said meetings should be conducted only once a year and consulting can be done remotely. The old style when he guided discussion at OPEC meetings is gone. OPEC now produces about a third of the world's oil, has large spare capacity of 3.8 million barrels a day in 2014 or 4% of global oil supply in a crisis, according to IEA. Yet it faces pressures from the increasing shale production in North America and the decline in demand from Asia. Brent crude is at about $92 in October 2014. OPEC production in August 2014 was split as follows- Saudis 9.6, Iraq 3.0, Iran 3.0, U.A.E. 2.9. Kuwait 2.9, Venezuela 2.3, Qatar 0.7, Libya 0.5, Algeria 1.2, Nigeria 1.8, Angola 1.7 (millions of barrels a day, source: OPEC)...

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US effort to strike economic deals and business deals that will change the direction of South and Southwest Asia in ways that are the need of the hour. DJT replaces the failures of the Republicans under Reagan, and his 1983 Middle East Envoy Donald Rumsfeld, who knowing about the use of chemical weapons intervened on the Iraqi side with arms support that led to the subsequent wars. Rumsfeld was to lead the US into Afghanistan War in 2001 and into Iraq War in 2003 by his Office of Special Plans intelligence. By contrast DJT wound down these wars and is now setting a new path to peace in the Middle East by showing the economic path that India now leads for South Asia, and South west Asia's Saudis, Qatar, UAE and Pakistan. This is a remarkable change for Republicans and the Nation, which has the support of well meaning Democrats, including Biden.

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A country smaller than the US state of Connecticut will host the first World Cup Soccer games in the Arab world from November 21 to December 18. England will play US , the day after Thanksgiving.

Group A  Netherlands with Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal

Group B   England with Iran, US, Wales or Scotland/Ukraine

Group C.  Argentina with Saudi, Mexico, Poland

Group D   France with Peru, Australia/United Arab Emirates, Denmark, Tunisia

Group E  Spain, Germany, Japan with Costa Rica or New Zealand

Group F  Belgium with Canada, Morocco, Croatia

Group G.  Brazil with Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon

Group H   Portugal with Ghana, Uruguay, South Korea 

Defending champion France has it better in its group. 

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As expected Iran boycotts the talks in Doha of 16 major oil producers seeking to stabilize oil prices. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela sought to stabilize oil production at January levels to support oil prices. Wth the Saudia and Russia producing all out, Iran seeks to do the same, effectively closing the door on any agreement to freeze production levels.

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The U.S. under president Trump ends the 18 year long war with an agreement signed in Qatar between the U.S. and the Taliban. The Taliban are required to fight all forms of terrorism in Afghanistan as part of the agreement. In the first phase of the withdrawal of American troops, a third of the 12,000 American troops will be withdrawn with a similar reduction of NATO forces. This ends a costly war that cost about 1 trillion dollars and acted as a distraction from major problems in America such as aging infrastructure, and problems related to health, education and other services. President Trump was clear about his perception of America's role during a New Delhi news conference. America could not act in a police role for other states and regions, he said.

President Trump has secured support of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and India for the agreement to bring peace to the region.

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During a trip to Italy for a G-7 foreign ministers meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson makes a symbolic stop at a memorial in Lucca, where 560 men, women and children were massacred by the Nazis in World War II. Tillerson said at the memorial that "we rededicate ourselves to holding to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents anywhere in the world." Also present at the memorial were Frederica Mogherini, the European Union's chief of foreign policy, and Susanne Wasum-Rainer, German ambassador to Italy. British foreign secretary Boris Johnson said Europe supported the U.S. A meeting on Syria is being added to the G-7 meetings which includes the foreign ministers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, United Arab Emirates.

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How a weak dollar is affecting countries in the Persian Gulf such as the Emirates and Quatar as inflation approaches 12% and South Asian workers seeing the value of their remittances home diminish as th rupee strengthens against the dollar. Saudi inflation is smaller at 5% and the Saudis intend to keep the dollar peg for their currency. Kuwait has shifted to a peg based on a basket of currencies. The Gilf Cooperation Council is expected to meet soon and this will be an important topic.

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Egypt's new capital city 40 miles from Cairo is shown here in the WSJ. The cost is about $45 billion. The Egyptian government will move ministries and public sector employees to the new city in 2023. Local developers are helping build the city and the Egyptian military is running the project. Cairo is overcrowded and densely packed with old buildings, with traffic congestion in the inner city. The capital is only part of a project that could cost 1 trillion dollars with help from oil rich Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and involves modernization of the Arab world's largest country- rail lines with fast rail in collaboration with German companies, and building new highways, airports, other infrastructure projects. 

The shift in building new infrastructure comes as India is building new cities including its own new smart city in Gujarat called Dholera in the Gulf of Kambhat (Cambay). Dholera is also a city built from scratch from the sand. 

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The U.S. Education Department in its report on American universities says foreign funds were often not disclosed, comes with strings attached, and the contacts without transparency or oversight by the U.S. In one instance Cornell University initially failed to report to U.S. authorites more than $1.2 billion it received, says this WSJ report. The U.S. government is concerned that this kind of foreign money gives improper access to U.S. technology to foreign governments, including China. "The U.S. universities are a technological treasure trove in leading internationally competitive fields. For too long these institutions have provided an unprecedented level of access to foreign governments and their instrumentalities in an environment lacking transparency and oversight," says the Education Department report. The report went on to say that "institutional decision making is generally divorced from any sense of obligation to American national interests, security or values." In one instance it cited work that the WSJ says is identifiable as Georgetown University work with the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China deriving $2 million from the arrangement. WSJ says one institution identifiable as Cornell failed to document its institution in Qatar. Multiple schools received millions of dollars from Huawei whose equipment has become a security concern for the U.S. government. Schools being investigated include Harvard, Cornell, Georgetown, Texas A&M, MIT. After the Education Department crackdown U.S. Universities self-reported about $6.6 billion and an additional $1.05 billion recent period, from Qatar, China, Saudi Arabia, and U.A.E., says WSJ.  In other situations the Education Department report says China sought to "leverage its relationships with American universities to dominate a global market- in artificial intelligence." ...

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How the peg to the dollar creates two major problems for the Gulf countries, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia. First it means higher inflation in these countries, with double digit inflation in Qatar and the Emirates, and 5% in Saudi Arabia. Second it means policy inflexibility, monetary policy should be tightened when the Fed is easing. Monentary expansion is as much as 15 to 40% in the Gulf countries. There are 2 option one is a revaluation at a much higher exchange rate but this does not solve the problem of monetary inflexibility. The other is to peg to a basket of currencies including euro and dollar just as Kuwait has done. A shift to a peg to a basket of currencies would lead to diversification with these countries holding fewer dollars and would hurt the dollar. Saudi Arabia is reluctant to go with a different peg considering the dollars precarious situation but other Gulf countries may follow Kuwait.

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Saudi Arabia and the UAE are emerging as large arms buyers. Saudi Arabia spent $80 billion on arms purchases in 2014, more than France or Britain, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The Emirates spent $23 billion, triple the amount spent in 2006. Qatar made a $11 billion deal in 2014 for air defense systems and helicopters. It is looking for F-15 fighter jets to replace its fleet of older Mirage jets. Lockheed plans to replace smaller Pentagon sales by increasing global arms sales to 25-30%, according to CEO Marillyn Hewson. It has setup a separate division for foreign military sales.

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Pictures of Sheikh Sabah of Kuwait in peacekeeping roles as a diplomat for the Gulf region including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf states. He passed away at the age of 91. The pictures include one with British prime minister Alec Douglas of Britain in 1964 three years after gaining independence from Britain in 1961. With the renewed effort for peace in the Gulf region his role is better appreciated not only as an ally of the U.S. but also as a diplomat keeping good relations for the Gulf states and neighbors. He was foreign minister since the sixties and ruler since 2006. He was one of an older group of leaders in the region who operated with a slow ruling style but sought consensus. During the divisions in the Gulf Cooperation Council with Qatar splitting from the rest in 2016, Sabah was active in keeping the Gulf states together. When he was born in 1929 oil had not been discovered in Kuwait and the area the size of New Jersey was run by his father as part of a dynasty that ruled for 3 centuries. Kuwait has 6% of the world's oil reserves. ...

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The war in Syria enters a new phase in Feb. 2013 with the effort to send heavy weaponry to moderates and the Free Syrian Army and shift the focus of the war to the south and Damascus. The source of the weapons are moderate Muslim nations, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Quatar, and western nations.

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Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves dropped to $2.9 billion in February 2023, says this report in the WSJ, enough to cover 2 weeks of imports and a fraction of debt servicing requirements. Under an IMF agreement that is being negotiated $1.1 billion will be given by the IMF, which would lead to further lending by other countries and banks based on IMF oversight. This includes putting $630 million in  additional taxes and increasing the price of electricity. Successive governments have decided to avoid the IMF conditions of increasing taxes and price of electricity. Donor countries such as Saudis and Qatar, UAE, would step in once IMF oversight is in place and invest in airports, power plants, oil and gas companies, and make loans to Pakistan once the IMF oversight is in place, says WSJ.   Sri Lanka faced a similar situation after it delayed an IMF program and loan, leading to financial crisis. The situation is now stabilized with the IMF on the verge of making a $2.9 billion loan and other banks making loans on the basis of IMF oversight. In Sri Lanka's case India is a serious donor, investor and supporter of Sri Lankan recovery. ...

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DW.com shows the Straits of Hormuz where the Persian Gulf meets the Gulf of Oman before it meets the Arabian Sea facing India. Ships cross a narrow space of 2 miles in the narrowest point that is 21 miles wide in the Straits of Hormuz. The UAE, Oman face Iran in that area. 20 million barrels of oil by tanker traffic cross the Straits of Hormuz every day. India, China, Japan and EU depend on the Straits of Hormuz for oil supplies making it critical for sea navigation. Iranian parliament  has threatened closing of the Straits as aresponse to the US strike on nuclear weapons development sites. China and India lose cheaper oil supplies from Iran as a result of the Israel-Iran war. Russia, Saudis, UAE, Qatar, gain because it increases the price of oil supplies from Russia. Iran loses a source of oil revenue with damage to its oil facilities. The Israeli economy is resilient and its stock markets are showing rapid growth as the war changes the Gulf region and  Southwest Asia, South Asia moving it in the direction of economic and business deals and agreements that enhance improvement in the lives of the people away from decades of conflict from the colonial era in which the British and the French gained control of the Gulf region and Iraq, Syria after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the anti colonial regimes that failed to provide development, the CIA's intervention under Dulles and Eisenhower to remove the democratically elected government of Mossadegh in Iran in 1953 and its repercussions in the Reagan period with Rumsfeld/Reagan compounding that error by supporting Iraq's Hussein leading to 3 decades of loss of American lives in the region's wars and also endangering Israel. ...