LyrArc Article Gist
Oil importing countries in East Africa will benefit from lower oil import bills. Measured as a percentage of GDP the oil imports will go down from 6.3% to 3.7% of GDP for Tanzania, from 6.2% to 3.7% for Mozambique, from 6.0% to 3.6% for Kenya and from 4.8% to 2.8% for South Africa. For the oil exporting countries for revenue decline as a percentage of GDP, Ghana goes from 2.7% to 1.6%, Nigeria from 15.7% to 9.3%, and Angola from 56% to 33%. About 80% of Nigeria's budget comes from oil revenues which will result in spending cuts. About 14% of GDP in Nigeria is dependent on the oil sector, because of the growth in retail and telecommunications. Nigeria's finance minister estimates the decline in GDP growth by 1% to 5.3% for 2015. Benefits from lower oil prices are offset by decline in the price of iron ore and other commodity exports for South Africa, and from the decline in the South African currency, the Rand. Drop in the value of iron ore exports affects other parts of West Africa such as Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Projects for large investments by large oil companies in Uganda and Angola may be delayed as oil prices decline. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Latin America has made a huge turnaround through successful vaccination drives. Today more people are vaccinated as a percentage of the population in Latin America at 62% than in the US at 56% or Europe at 60%, according to Our World in Data project at Oxford University. There is little resistance to vaccines in Latin America after successful vaccine campaigns against yellow fever and other diseases. During the first year of the pandemic Latin America had one third of the deaths in the world with 8% of the population. Deaths after vaccination drives have dropped to 8%.  Brazil with 617,000 deaths from coronavirus was second only to the US with 800,000 deaths. Brazil is now back to normal after a successful vaccination drive that has 66% of the population fully vaccinated, and 80% with one dose, some of the highest rates in the world, according to Our World in Data at Oxford University. In Colombia with 50 million population about 50% of people are fully vaccinated. Cases have dropped from 30,000 in June to 2000 a day and deaths from 700 daily that month to 50 a day in December 2021. In Buenos Aires, Argentina's capital, 83% of three million population are fully vaccinated, 14% have received a booster. Buenos Aires city health minister says Argentine society has an affinity for vaccination campaigns. "They rapidly accepted receiving them," he says. Yet from the point of view of new variants emerging there is a different situation in rural areas. In industrial states such as Sao Paulo 78% are fully vaccinated, yet less than 40% are fully vaccinated in poor Amazon state of Roraima.   We make it a point to honor the brave reporters in these countries who provide the reports in the WSJ, as we did earlier for NYT Stephanie Nolan's reports from South Africa and Zambia about frontline workers against Omicron in Africa.  Luciana Magalhaes in Sao Paulo, Jenny Carolina Gonzalez in Bogota, and Sylvina Frydlewsky in Buenos Aires and Kejal Vyas writing this report from San Salvador. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A infratest survey shows 91 % of Germans support taking in refugees in the current war in Eastern Europe. 53% of Germans support German government's strong response, and 27% think it doesn't go far enough. 14% say it goes too far. How much has changed since as recent as February 2022 is shown by the change- only 20% supported arms deliveries to Eastern Europe just one month back, this has risen now in March to 61%, and 45% feel that German government did not act soon enough.

A lot has changed in Germany's view of Russia, and also of China, in a few weeks in 2022. This also appears to be the prevailing sentiment in all of Western Europe and most of Eastern Europe. From the Baltics to Scandinavia, across, Italy, Spain, France, Southern Europe, Eastern Europe, there is a remarkable shift in thinking. This also appears to have affected world opinion from Latin America, South East Asia, South Asia, to Africa.

LyrArc Article Gist
When shortages of wheat following the war in Ukraine are causing a crisis in some countries such as Egypt and Africa, there are other unusual changes  as emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian Real and the Chilean Peso, South African Rand are increasing in value. Even with the strengthening of the US dollar the supply chain disruptions are benefiting exporters of soyabeans such as Brazil and Argentina, and copper such as Chile with strengthening of their currencies. The Brazilian Real has strengthened by 13%. The WSJ calls it the sharpest commodities rally in modern trading history. One analyst says this is unusual how emerging market currencies could rally in the first quarter of 2022 with war in Ukraine, supply chain disruption, strengthening dollar reaching almost parity with the euro.  Today this is a positive sign for the Free World in Latin America. Currencies weakening are ones in countries exposed to a sharply slowing Chinese economy and rising energy costs such as Thai Baht and South Korean Won.  Brazil's central bank is also increasing its lending rate to the highest level in 5 years. Other American allies in Eastern Europe such as Poland which has taken in 3 million Ukraine refugees are also seeing a strengthening currency in this new situation. The National Bank of Poland increased its key lending rate by three quarters of a point to 5.25% which has attracted investors to the Polish currency the Zloty. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
By preventing serious illness in patients two pills for coronavirus from Pfizer and Merck can change the course of this pandemic. Pfizer will give a royalty free license to Medicines Patent Pool, an organization backed by the United Nations for its coronavirus pill. Merck has also given a royalty free license to Medicines Patent Pool for it pill. This organization will then grant a license for the manufacture of the coronavirus pills to poor developing countries. India is included in the list of countries yet China, Russia and Brazil are excluded for the Pfizer license.  Merck has given Indian generics manufacturers approval to make the pill. This will provide supplies of the pill to 105 developing countries, South Africa will also make the pill to provide it at $10 a course in Africa. Pfizer will begin manufacturing of large quantities in 2022 with 50 million planned for 2022 and 21 million in the first half of 2022. Pfizer pill will be made available in 95 countries. The Merck pill is called Molnupiravir. Pfizer pill is called Paxlovid with 30 pills taken over the course of 5 days. Pfizer pill is effective in studies when given to people who had not been vaccinated. It has to be given within 3-4 days of getting coronavirus confirmed through a test which makes testing critical for its use. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A look at the graph showing inflation adjusted GDP growth in the South African apartheid years of 1980-1994, show GDP declines in 6 of the 14 years, with 3 years of decline in the last 5 years of apartheid rule. Which shows that the economy was suffering from a combination of world sanctions and the war with the African National Congress to defend apartheid. In 1996 an agreement was reached with the ANC to transfer power and end apartheid in South Africa. Some of the pressures against apartheid came from the business community's perceived interest in maintaining growth. This has been borne out by the graph showing the inflation adjusted growth in the years of ANC rule starting in 1995, which show a striking difference with growth between 4-6% for 1995-2008, high growth rates for 13 of 14 years, and slight decline in only one year 1998. This bears out the policy of business and a democratically elected government with respect for minority rights, and black-white-colored and tribal loyalties being reconciled to goals of economic growth and democracy. For two years Nelson Mandela head of the ANC maintained continuity in economic policies by retaining the white finance minister from the previous apartheid government. In 1996 Trevor Manuel who had little economic experience- who worked as an activist to organize protests against high bus fares and rents under apartheid governments- was made finance minister. He has been finance minister now for 13 years, and only resigned when President Mbeki resigned after losing the leadership election of the ANC. In the early years he controlled government spending to pay off South Africa's tremendous debt. He brought down inflation and built up foreign reserves. After the election of Jacob Zuma, another ANC veteran, supported by young black people, in September 2008, and his likely win in the current election, it appears that Zuma will retain Trevor Manuel. This ensures continuity in the face of the global recession, especially hitting commodity producers like South Africa. South Africa compares favorably with Nigeria in economic growth and modernization, spread of mobile phones, computers, literacy rates, but suffers from high unemployment, and low life expectancy. Pressures are increasing to do more for unemployment, address the crumbling infrastructure, and provide more help to the poor. Zuma has the support of the unions known as Cosatu and the Communist party, and of young blacks, in a country where one third of the population is under 15 years of age and over 40% of the population has mobile phones. South Africa has the largest economy in South Africa, is larger in land mass than Nigeria, has about 45 million people - a third of the population of Nigeria with 127 million population which has fertility rate of 5.6 twice that of South Africa- and GDP of 213 billion compared to $72 billion for Nigeria. Literacy rates are 82% for S. Africa and 68% for Nigeria, showing that higher literacy rates are lowering fertility rates and population growth. The figures are from the 2007 Economist pocketbook World in Figures. A strong press and media provides check on corruption which siphons away development funds in the public sector in commodity dependent countries like Nigeria. The private sector controls commodity exports of South Africa. So even with the relative lack neglect of the poor and unemployed in South Africa, and of health care, South Africa has done better overall than Nigeria. Average annual inflation was 5.1% in South Africa, compared to 15.7% in Nigeria, and this hits the poor the hardest. It goes to show that when it comes to modernization it helps to be inclusive, reconciliation oriented, and bring together all the resources of the country including a vigorous press and media, and business, regardless of color, race, creeds, faith, tribe or caste....

LyrArc Article Gist
Boosting vaccine production for the Indo-Pacific region that includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam with production done through Biological E in Hyderabad will be discussed at the meeting with Biden. Japan will fund the project, and Australia will handle the distribution. This will be part of a followup to a March 12 virtual meeting of Quad leaders. This effort to meet the vaccine supplies challenge for the Asian region covering south east Asia and its population of 600 million will be one of the major outcomes of Quad countries collaboration, making it a peacetime collaboration that supports development in the region without burdening the financial position of any country.  The other part of US- Indian collaboration and Quad collaboration centers on two related themes after healthcare and pandemic. The immediate challenge is to tackle the breakdown in the supply chain for semiconductors. The US and Europe can no longer depend entirely on a supply chain based in Taiwan. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Straits which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is only 81 miles wide, which makes continued dependence on chip production on Taiwan an unreliable option and the need to build a new supply chain for Japan, EU and US. Plans will be made to address this in the talks. The Biden administration has already taken action with Intel Corp making a U turn and bringing chip manufacturing back home to the US with $50 billion investment planned. India and other Asian countries may form additional options for semiconductor manufacturing. The third part of the Quad effort will center on US and Japan ramping up infrastructure building capabilities with India to build infrastructure across Asian countries and in Africa that will be financed in a way that will not have some of the liabilities of the Chinese initiative called Belt and Road. Loans given by Chinese state banks and contracts including manpower from Chinese contractors are now seen as not meeting the needs of Asian and African countries. These loans most of the time cannot be repaid as in Zambia, and other parts of Africa, and in Pakistan, leading to interest accumulating on debt and making future infrastructure development extremely difficult. The use of manpower from China also means no learning curve for infrastructure is formed for local companies and infrastructure comes without new jobs jobs being created.  For most of the period 1900 -1950 the British built Asian and African infrastructure. During the period 1950 onwards the US assumed a major role, as did the Soviets. This changed after belligerent Reagan administration policies and wars in the Middle East sapped the funds that could have gone to infrastructure building that would improved living standards in Asia and Africa. Mr Biden wants to see this change and this is what he meant when he said at the UN General Assembly today- " we want relentless diplomacy to take the place of relentless wars." He means every word of this and the diplomacy is between allies and also adversaries, but mostly with allies such as Japan, the EU and India to build a better world. That he has to do this quickly Biden is aware of that, which is why he said "the next 10 years will determine our future."   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
South Korea with 2069 hours year has the longest working hours of any developed country, according to the OECD,  and only Mexico exceeds this of all countries. In an effort to increase productivity and boost a dropping birthrate the National Assembly in South Korea reduced the maximum number of working hours from 68 hours a week to 52 hours- starting July 2018 and  initially for large companies. In Japan there is actually a word for working to death called "karoshi." The period of rapid industrialization in the fifties and sixties was a period of long working hours for most Japanese men. Today the working hours have dropped to average of 1713 a year. Africa shows the greatest number of countries in which one third of the labor force works more than 48 hours per week. Asia is the region with the longest working hours with 30% of the countries with thresholds of 60 hours or more.The U.S. is one of the countries where there is no limit- most other developed countries in Europe consider work-life balance important and have maximum limits without sacrificing productivity. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Slavery was banned by the 19th century in Britain and its Empire, it took the US till 1861 to do this and till 1961 to end racial segregation. By contrast Britain followed a policy in China throughout the nineteenth century that brought enormous pain and suffering to the Chinese people through the Opium wars and opening up of ports for opium trade in China. And the US under presidents Wilson, Coolidge, Franklin Roosevelt, and the American people followed a policy of respect for the Chinese people during this period with the idea fervently America believed of a modern nation emerging from the chaotic period of Manchu monarchy's decline by 1900 and warlords civil war + Japanese invasion from 1900-1945. For Britain and the European colonizers Chinese and Indian people were for the most part "coolies." Joe Stilwell, FDR's Supreme Commander of American Forces in China was the ultimate free of racism. A order from the Republican Coolidge administration in the 1920's was for any American soldier to be courtmartialed for so much as laying a hand on a Chinese coolie. A modern nation did emerge as the American people hoped and fought for in China, and in India over the 25 year period in the 21st century, with Britain having failed to bring the same level of understanding that America had for the Asian people.  Britain's monarch Charles tells Commonwealth leaders his government is not paying reparations for slavery yet is determined to create anew understanding to work with other nations in the future, to discuss issues with openness and respect. There are 56 nations in the British led Commonwealth, the largest of which is India. It includes South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania in East Africa and Nigeria, Ghana in West Africa.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Biden tells the UN General Assembly he has seen the world since coming to the Senate in 1972 age 29. "Sweeping, aspirational, stubborn, defiant" says WSJ, 52 years later president Biden describes what was overcome- A long drawn war in Vietnam ended with America and Vietnam meeting as friends and partners this year showing there is path forward to reconciliation, to peace. Speaking out agains Apartheid in South Africa in the 1980's and seeing the racist regime fall. Peace in the Balkans and how he held Milosevic accountable for war crimes in the 1990's. And Afghanistan becoming longer than the Vietnam War, four presidents did not end it. "Four American presidents had faced that decision, but I was determined not to leave it to the fifth." How he has hope for the Middle East and Ukraine. “I have hope. It always seems impossible until it is done.”  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The ANC wins 62.2% of the vote in South Africa's 2014 general election.

LyrArc Article Gist
The failure of the Jacob Zuma government of the ANC to imorove economic and living conditions for black people in South Africa. The gap between incomes of black and white South Africans is wider now than when Apartheid ended in 1994. It is also wider now than when Zuma took office three years ago.

LyrArc Article Gist
The need for an effective opposition and an alternative to the African National Congress party in South Africa. The Democratic Alliance party which it is estimated can get about 30% of the vote, as an alternative.

LyrArc Article Gist
China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, countries that are part of the G-20 are not part of the G-8. Without the developing countries no real progress can be made on climate change or on emissions control. Climate change was a key focus of this summit in Itlay for the G-8 but with India and China only on the sidelines and acting more as an opposition excluded from the main deliberations the whole climate change agenda had to be shelved. The European countries lose influence in an enlarged summit so the G-8 keeps going along. Sweden holds the rotating Presidency of the EU, so the Swedes are there also. And so is Portugal in away with Manuel Barroso representing the European Commisssion. Except Japan, Asia is not represented, and no country from Africa or Latin America is represented. The European club looks like an anachronism and it is. Merkel and Sarkozy say they know this, but there is too much resistance in Europe to giving up this privilege. When the Guardian reported that Italy may be left out in future meetings of an expanded summit. the Italian press and the Italian prime minister Berlusconi denounced the report. Other countries that lose influence in an expanded arrangement are Canada and Japan. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the Times looks at president Macron in a holiday setting at the presidential place Bregancon near the military port of Toulon in the south of France. Macron worked hard on the European Recovery Fund and getting a $390 billion non repayable aid fund for southern Europe with chancellor Merkel of Germany through tough long negotiations with the Dutch and the Danes. His work with two provincial mayors as prime ministers, the last current prime minister Castex, in fighting the coronavirus is giving him much needed boost in popularity. Throughout his willingness to learn and to try new approaches without worrying about the risks, and his frank manner with perseverance has helped Macron as he navigated unknown waters. After a drop in the polls to about 30% he is now up to 50%, 18 months before the presidential election. This is good for France as strong leadership is needed after the pandemic both for France, French speaking regions, and in solidarity with former French Africa. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The appreciation of the U.S. dollar and depreciating currencies in Africa in 2015 makes it costlier to import manufactured goods to African countries. Quality Supermarkets in Kampala, Uganda, struggles to fill its shelves with imported packaged foods and manufactured goods. The lack of financing for $30 million in crude supplies leads to the closure of a refinery in Lusaka, Zambia, and long lines at gas stations. The Zambian currency kwacha has depreciated by 17% against the U.S. dollar in 2015. Uganda's currency the shilling, Angola's currency the kwanza, and Nigeria's currency the Naira, all depreciated in 2015. This means larger trade deficits to finance consumer imports or upgrade infrastructure. In Uganda this means delays in upgrades to power lines and transformers. In oil producing countries such as Angola and Nigeria, and oil producers at the early stage such as Uganda and Ghana, there is a double whammy with lower oil prices leading to lower revenues to finance costlier imports. This is likely to slow growth in Africa from about 5% in recent years to 3.7%, according to Capital Economics forecast. Countries in Africa that import oil will see lower import bill for oil, but that benefit eroded by a depreciating currency. South Africa sees benefit of lower oil prices offset by lower revenues from commodity exports of iron ore, and the higher cost of imports with a depreciating currency. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, India, UK, European Union elections are taking place by June 2024 and US in November 2024. Yet it is misleading to lump them together. Much discontent is there to see as in the UK with cost of living, governance, time wasted on Brexit, India with lingering effects of the pandemic on rural voters, caste based voting. In India protest vote of lower caste Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, even with government support in forms of universal healthcare, food for poor households during pandemic extended, cooking gas, housing support, clean tap water, direct bank account deposit to accounts of poor and farmers. Yet in the states in the south and east in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, and generally in the south the BJP vote count increased so that losses in the north were made up leaving the percentage of vote for India for Modi's BJP party at 37 percent in 2024 instead of 38% in 2019, losing the absolute majority 240 seats of 543 yet having campaigned heavily for partners who added seats 294 of 543. In the UK Keir Starmer may see some vote preference for Labor erode yet the Conservative record is in shambles even conservative experts will say, as in India where the opposition parties offer no prospects for the future and little track record for making India the second or third largest economy in the world which the BJP has set and shown to have achieved over 10 years by taking India to No. 5 in the world economies. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In 2018 China, India, and America are Africa's largest trading partners. India is building 18 new embassies in African countries. Greater openness to trade and investment is leading to GDP growth in Africa, 40% higher than in 2000, which is still low by comparison with Asian countries. The Economist says African countries can benefit by drawing investment from all sides and all countries, so that Africa benefits the most. Chinese investment, and Indian investment can happen side by side with investment from America, Britain and France.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in NYT looks at the Barbados debt crisis. Barbados spends 55% of its budget to pay interest on debt (servicing the debt). That leaves about 5% for health and climate change. Years of borrowing that ignored basic rules of financing have created serious problems that were compounded by the pandemic and hurricanes. This report shows that the total deb of Barbados was not known to the central bank. Borrowing was approved at exorbitant interest rates. One loan with Credit Suisse for $150 million is shown here with interest rates that lead it to become a catastrophic amount owed. Many such loans without any checks and supervision of total loans taken, lack of financial prudence rules followed, lack of transparency and alerts on borrowing and spending tend to create this kind of situation in many poor countries. About two thirds of developing countries are in this situation owing one third of their budget for debt service or paying interest on the loan. The situation is unstable to begin with. Then on comes along a hurricane or natural disaster such as the pandemic and the unstable situation becomes a catastrophe. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, the Caribbean nations, nations in Africa, face debt crises that are getting worse. It is not inevitable or destiny for nations today, consider the examples of large nations such as Japan, China, South Korea and India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and one can see that development finance can be prudent and responsible, so that situations such as the pandemic can be handled without going into disarray. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The UN-Turkey arranged Black Sea corridor has enabled shipping of Ukraine grain to poor countries and countries depending on such supplies to feed their people. About 1 million tons were shipped in August and in one week to Sept 4 another 1 million tons were shipped. Russia says only small shipments are going to the poor or poorest countries. The figures provided by Ukraine are as follows:  54 vessels to Asia carrying 1 million metric tons of foodgrains 16 vessels to Africa carrying 469,000 metric tons. 32 vessels to Europe carrying 853,000 metric tons. Turkey is the largest recipient according to UN data. Also receiving largest shipments are Iran, South Korea and Egypt. EU makes up 23% according to UN data. Un says the first shipments were for the backlog of ships trapped in Black Sea ports that could not leave after the invasion in February of Ukraine. These are determined by international markets for grain. The UN says priority will be given to shipments to poor countries once a steady flow of ships from Black Sea ports takes place. Turkey which arranged the shipments and is closes to the Black Sea ports and Egypt have depended on Ukraine for grain supplies and rising inflation had become a major problem in the two countries. The two are also some of the most populated countries in the region. Turkey for this reason has a major interest in keeping this route open.   ...