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The Labor Department reports that the U.S. added 255,000 jobs in July 2016.Unemployment remained steady at 4.9%. Of the jobs added, 70,000 were in business and professional services, 43,000 in health care, 38,000 in government mostly in local education, 18,000 in financial services. Yet growth remains slow at 1.2%. Businesses are willing to hire new employees, but reluctant to make new investments in the prevailing uncertainty. Wage growth for average hourly earnings was about 2.6% for the year. Improvements in the jobs picture is likely to influence the U.S. presidential election.

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Lack of wage growth and self imposed fiscal rules as barriers for Britain's Labour government in 2026. Keir Starmer faces challenges for the leadership after May 2026 elections. Self imposed fiscal rules set a limit to what the administration can achieve and finance minister Rachel Reeves lacking the imagination to come up with a way to boost growth with fiscal rules modified to generate jobs and wage growth working with British industry.

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The U.S. Labor Department report shows 156,000 jobs added in September 2016. The unemployment rate increased by a tenth of a percentage point to 5.0%, because of the increase in the total pool of workers, The labor force increased by 3 million workers over the first 9 months of 2016. The labor force participation rate was up by half a percentage point to 62.9% for the year 2016, as it drew more workers who were earlier discouraged to look for work. Wages grew by 2.6% over the year.

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In this exceptional report of the housing market in Roanoke, Virgina, Neil Irwin talks to builders, home buyers, renters and young people. San Francisco and Washington D.C. are the exception in housing markets- hundreds of America's midsize cities like Roanoke are seeing smaller rates of household formation leading to a decline in demand for single family homes and fewer homes being built. This accounts for a large part of the smaller growth in U.S. GDP. There are he points out about 2.3 million missing households as a result of a significant change in home buying patterns that is reducing demand for new construction of single family homes. During the period 2001-2006, before the 2008 global financial crisis, the rate of new U.S. household formation was about 1.35 million annually. This dropped to 569,000 in 2007-2013, as the effects of the crisis were felt in a deep recession. One result is more young people are postponing buying a house and living with their parents. Faced with large student debt- the total U.S. student debt passed $1 trillion for the first time recently- purchases of homes are becoming more dfficult. Of 18-34 year olds 27% lived with their parents before 2006, according to Labor Department data. This went up to 31% following the recession. Lack of good jobs is another factor. In 2014 March only 63% of 18-24 year olds had jobs. Even young people older than 24 with jobs felt it necessary to save money by living with their parents. More retirees too are moving into apartments....

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DJT and US diplomacy given a chance, patient waiting for Iran to make a unified proposal with split in Iran government, while the US naval blockade goes on- April 21 2026. About 2 million people lose their jobs in Iran as inflation exceeds 50% and economic activity, steel, car making and petrochemical industries are affected with major disruptions and supply chain issues.

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Kessler in the WP corrects Obama's claim that he created 800,000 jobs. He says this is clever arithmetic as it takes a low point in Feb. 2010 following the financial crisis. Kessler points out that according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. manufacturing jobs were 12.56 million in Jan. 2009 when Obama became president. In Nov. 2016, early estimates show there were 12.26 million manufacturing jobs, a loss of 300,000. This loss does not reflect the problems in the U.S. auto industry and older industries in the midwestern states as a result of trade and globalization that speeded up with the rapid industrialization of China. And led as Greg Ip pointed out in a recent WSJ report to a rapid acceleration of job losses in a decade that did not happen in the same scale during Japan's industrialization and urbanization in the sixties. This aggravated the situation in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennsylvania, and was met with a feeble response from Democrats. Even a economist like Krugman favoring the Obama administration's efforts came to the conclusion that TPP did not add much to gains from trade as most of the gains had already been realized. More of the gains went to tech and IT in California, at the expense of the auto industry based in the midwest. A report in WP show a president too close to IT in California and failing to grasp the situation in the midwest. Voters punish whoever is in power, regardless of being Conservative or Liberal, in Canada the hollowing out of manufacturing under Harper in Ontario and Quebec led to the win by Trudeau's Liberals.  ...

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Jakab's discusses the difference betwen the ADP estimate for jobs added and the Labor Department's figures. ADP numbers had a wide divergence with Labor Department figures for 2011-2013. ADP now uses a different methodology to more closely track the government numbers. For the last five months ADP numbers came out lower than government figures by an average of 32,000, says Jakab. ADP estimate of private non-farm jobs growth is 281,000 for June 2014. A WSJ survey of economists shows nonfarm payroll jobs growth for June at 215,000. In 2010-2011 ADP numbers vastly overestimated the number of jobs created.

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Instead of a jinx much to the contrary the US economy outlook for 2030 in Feb 2026- a surge in investment spending in 2026-2030, new manufacturing investments and lower energy costs, moderating inflation, are likely to propel the US economy ahead to 2030.The effect of tariffs as a policy making tool has been muted because of exemptions, reversal of tariff rates once key objectives were secure for tariffs as a way to get action on foreign policy as with Indian purchases of Russian oil, deals with Japan, South Korea and China, India, UK and the EU. Some sources such as the Philadelphia Fed see price rises reaching 3% in some inflation guages more than the moderate 2.5% in the consumer price index for January 2026. These sources see the hiring slowing down just as layoffs begin to happen in the latter part of the year which is a possibility but less likely. At this point in Feb 2026 there is a tendency not to layoff and to hang onto employees, and hiring has been slow in 2025. January's report of 130,000 jobs added is the first sign of strengthening of the jobs market. Overall a cautious view would be to call it a soft landing after the inflation surge of the covid period. Another way of looking at is is more in line with the strategic direction of the US economy- freeing up the economy with investments in energy,  reducing the key costs of production, tax policy of Bessent's complete one shot depreciation of equipment increasing business investment, tariff policy making the world trading system fairer and now more attuned to US interests, all creating an investment and jobs surge in 2026-2027. There is an added benefit from US efforts to free up the world trading system from the stranglehold placed on it by China with its control over world manufacturing. A dominance and unwise concentration gained from the serious mistakes of the Bush-Clinton period of not putting in safeguards for US factories and jobs (that form the backbone for families in neighborhoods towns and regions across the US), and US business interests growing indifference to the very communities they were based in by outshoring to China destroying whole regions in America. Even where it is criticized or seen as negative there are huge benefits when the US acted. Tariff increase on India is a clear example- it built Indian resilient attitude in June-Feb 2026, and during this period it cut funding Russia's war in Ukraine by sourcing energy from other sources, the US policy led to India and EU+ Germany signing trade agreements to double their effort and double trade and scientific cooperation ( a goal secured for the US as it reduces concentration in China), was followed by US signing its own trade agreement with India within days, and increases world trade of US and EU and Germany in ways that will bring 2.5 billion people into a strong partnership that overshadows anything that happened in China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years of failure. ...

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Cost of Living Crisis under Biden, Affordability Crisis under DJT, and the situation in Feb 2026 with 2.4% inflation and job creation at 130,000 jobs in January 2026. Is this a sign that the tariffs policy is greatly misrepresented and misunderstood? The flexibility in tariffs, attention to financial markets through Scott Bessent's keen sghts at the Treasury shared with the president, the cutouts for key countries such as India to exclude semiconductors and cell phonesand other products from tariffs. For instance under tariffs increase India actually increased its exports by diversifying its economy and signing a trade agreement with Germany and the EU, followed by the trade agreement with the US, so that it remains an enven stronger economic partner. The same is true for Japan where elections are leading to a parliamentary majority for PM Sanae Takaichi who wants to work with the US and build a strong economic partnership, and make the large investments in the US it has promised.  Japan and India are two of the five largest economies in the world (US, China, Japan, India, Germany). German Foreign Minister Wadephul for the CDU welcomed Marco Rubio's call for a "new Western Century" and for strengthening western civilization common heritage of the US and Europe. This means 4 of the 5 largest economies in the world are in sync for the future of world trade, and their economic future.  ...

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Manufacturing in the US is adding jobs for the first time since 1997, according to government data. Job growth in 2010 was 1.2%, or 136,000 jobs. IHS Global Insight expects total manufacturing jobs in the US to increase in 2011 to 12 million. Manufacturing will be a modest contributor to job growth according to economists. Economists projections show a gain of 2.5% or 330,000 manufacturing jobs in 2011. Moody's Analytics estimates job growth of 2% a year through 2015. Government incentives, need to replace aging equipment and rehiring in the automobile industry will help manufacturing. At the same time manufacturers are cautious about hiring and increases in automation reduce the need for workers compared to earlier periods. Overall the loss of about 6 million manufacturing jobs since 1997 will not be made up. Yet the improvement is a positive sign as the US faces high unemployment and companies make investment in new factories overseas to meet growth in emerging markets.

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WSJ's Leubsdorf looks at the job market in 2015, and the March 2015 employment figures from the Labor Department. March 2015 figures shows seasonally adjusted 126,000 jobs added for the month. The average for each month in the 1st quarter of 2015 based on revised figures is 197,000 jobs added. This is down from the average of 324,000 jobs added each month for the 4th quarter of 2014, and similiar to the 1st quarter of 2014 when economic activity contracted. Economic growth has slowed from the 5% pace in the 3rd quarter of 2014, 2.2% in the 4th quarter, to a projected 1.2% by Macroeconomic Advisers for 1st quarter 2015. Economists see the gains from lower oil prices already having taken place for consumers, but layoffs still taking place in the oil and mining industries. The mining sector lost 30,000 jobs in the 1st quarter 2015, with 11,000 in March 2015. Manufacturing job losses as a result of the strong dollar and lower exports also lie ahead in the next 3 quarters of 2015, suggesting a weaker job picture than earlier anticipated based on 4th quarter 2014 job creation. The unemployment rate remains at 5.5% for March, but the true picture of the labor market is reflected in the unemployment rate that includes people working parttime who want full time jobs, which is at 10.9% for March. The labor force participation rate remains at its low level, going down slightly to 67.8%, and Americans out of work for over 6 months remains high at 29.8% of 8.6 million unemployed for March 2015....

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The U.S. "quit rate" reflecting job churn in the economy with workers leaving for better job opportunities increased to 1.8% in Nov. 2013, increasing from 1.2% low in Sept. 2009, according to the Labor Department. 2.4 million workers resigned in Nov. 2013. This includes workers retiring and choosing not to work. The quit rate was about 2.1% betwen 2000 and 2006. About 20% of the churn is from the lower paying hotel and restaurant sector. As the U.S. population ages and workers look for more stable jobs the number of workers leaving jobs is declining since the 1990's.

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This analysis by Mackintosh in WSJ points out that the low to negative interest  policy of the ECB has hurt savers, bank profits, and makes the ECB unpopular, yet it has shown tangible signs of success in creating jobs. This is true even though unemployment in the EU is still over 10% in some countries. He says that the unemployment is back to where it was in Nov. 1998 before the euro. There are 7.5 million jobs created in EU since beginning of 2014, the point at which ECB went to ultra low interest rates. This is above the 6.3 million created in the U.S. upto 1st quarter 2016. Big difference now is that companies and households are borrowing as rates fell. Inflation at 0.2% in August 2016 for EU is a weak spot, but considering where the EU was just 2-3 years before in 2013, the change is a largely positive one.

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China is offering Germany narrow wins such as buying more Airbus planes while continuing to focus on another export expansion drive in European Union countries. As it pulls back from the American market  in the face of tariffs by DJT it is selling more automobiles and other products in Germany. China continues to focus on its core potential in electric cars, machine tools, robotics and other products where it competes with German products. German jobs are at stake as China continues its expansion into the European market. This is a big concern for Merz of the CDU as he visits China in Feb 2026.

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The U.S. unemployment rate drops from 5.8% in Nov. 2014 to 5.6% in Dec. 2014, according to the Labor Department. But hourly earnings failed to register growth. Average hourly earnings declined in Dec. 2014 from the prior month, and increased by only 1.7% over the prior year, just a little bit above the inflation rate of 1.3%. Overall 2.95 million jobs were created in 2014. Yet 8.7 million Americans looking for a job could not find one. The U.S. Federal Reserve officials see tepid wage growth as a sign of slack in the labor market. The Dec. 16-17 Fed meeting minutes show that "most participants saw no clear evidence of a broad based acceleration in wages." The labor force participation rate is also stuck at a low level- 62.7% in Dec. 2014. The U-unemployment rate that includes involuntary part time workers and workers marginally attached to the labor force was at 11.2% in Dec. 2014. This includes workers too discouraged to look for work and people working parttime because they could not get full time work. It is steadily dropping from 16.6% in 2010 to 14.4% by 2012, 13.1% by 2013, and now 11.2% in 2014, showing steady improvement but still high....

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The U.S. jobs added for Dec. 2011, are 325,000, according to ADP figures, but the reliability of these figures has been questioned because of the different methods used in calculating the number. For Nov. 2011, the ADP number for private sector jobs added was 206,000. The same number from the Labor Department was 140,000. For June 2011 there was wide divergence- the ADP showed private sector jobs added as 157,000, the same number from the Labor Department was 57,000 jobs. For December 2010, ADP reported private sector jobs increased by 297,000, and official numbers showed 113,000. For December there are seasonal issues as well that affect the figures. Other factors affecting the jobs picture is the loss of jobs inthe government sector, and the gains in jobs predominantly coming from poorly paid retail and restaurant industries and fewer job gains in the better paid construction and manufacturing industries.

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The U.S. Labor Dept. reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 243,000 in January 2011. Of this number the private sector made 257,000 job additions and the government sector suffered job losses of 14,000. The professional-business-services industry added 70,000 jobs, including an increase in temporary workers. Manufacturing employment went up by 50,000 jobs. The unemployment rate dropped by two tenths of a percentage point to 8.3%. Another measure of unemployment the U-6 rate which includes job seekers and those in part time jobs went down by one percentage point to 15.1%. The U-6 reached a high of 17.1% in Sept. 2010.

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Austin, Texas and growth in "middle skill" jobs which offers ways to increase jobs growth in the U.S. in 2012-2015.

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Thirty years of neglect it all began in 1998 with Tim Cook from Alabama was hired to ship manufacturing to China- Apple now takes WSJ reporters to its "nascent effort" in building new supply chain for chips manufacturing in 2026. Steve Jobs was hired in 1998 when Steve Jobs returned to run Apple a second time. By this time the company was failing and manufacturing plants had huge quality control issues, morale was low. Instead of fixing these problems at US factories, Jobs and Cook came up with a new strategy- Make in China, invent and price at a premium in PC's for large margins with low cost Chinese manufacturing using tightly controlled US design, reinvest the profits in a virtuous cycle, invent and design to compete with Microsoft. It succeeded for Apple share owners, and it failed for American workers and people- succeeded by creating a $3 trillion valuation, it failed for the American people by leaving American workers to go unemployed and setting the trend to destroy the manufacturing capabilities and structures that had led to the US following Britain with 300 years of dominance in standards of living for its people and its industrial stength since 1750. (1750-1900 Britain's dominance 1900-2000 US dominance). It also created Asian competitors in China/Taiwan, and South Korea to whom the US business had in reckless manner based on textbook theory of economists for four administrations (Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama) had shipped American manufacturing and knowhow to China. ...

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This article in the NYT explains why the loss of jobs particularly in the auto industry to Mexico, with the experience of NAFTA passed by president Bill Clinton, has caused widespread opposition to the TPP trade agreement proposed by president Obama. Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in 2016 oppose the TPP.

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Vanguard economists using the work of Stanford Unversity economists Bloom and Baker and University of Chicago economist Davis have developed their own estimates of the cost of overall uncertainty to the U.S. economy. Bloom, Baker and Davis show the level of overall uncertainty in 2011-2013 is about 50% higher than the level seen since 1985. Vanguard's estimates are for a drag on the U.S. economy of about $261 billion in deadweight losses from this uncertainty- uncertainty in monetary policy, uncertainty in deficit reduction, uncertainty in business investment. Their estimates show 1 million jobs not created, job growth per month lower by 45,000 in the last 2 years, and gdp growth of about 3% per year in 2011 and 2012 in place of the 2% average recorded, in the absence of these uncertainty shocks experienced by the U.S. economy. McNabb points out that the market gains of the S&P 500 are based on an unstable foundation as long as this overall uncertainty is not lifted and create a serious disconnect....

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Jan Hatzius, economist at Goldman Sachs, says the May 2012 jobs report of only 69,000 jobs added, and 49,000 fewer jobs added in March and April after revisions by the Labor Department, should be seen in the light of higher hiring in the winter months because of warm weather. His estimate is that the warm weather added 100,000 extra jobs in the 3 months through February 2012, taking jobs from the March to May 2012 period which averaged 96,000 jobs per month. The underlying job growth if these weather related effects are taken out would be 120,000 to 130,000 jobs added each month in the March through May 2012 period. Macroeconomic Advisors draws the same conclusions, and adds that reductions in energy prices should offset any negative effects of slower job growth by boosting real disposable personal income and supporting real consumer spending.

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Mines sending trainloads of northern white sand are now sitting  idle in Wisconsin , hurting jobs and local revenues to finance budgets of local government. Mines have closed in Wisconsin for this sand that is blasted into silica and used for shale oil production. This has cost jobs in a rural area near the Mississippi river which borders Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois. Even though these areas do not produce any oil and gas. Companies supplying trucks, lubricants and drilling tools are also affected all the way into Youngstown, Ohio, which provides pipe to the oil fracking areas in West Texas. Frackers blast a mix of sand, water and chemicals into fossil fuel bearing rocky areas. Sand called northern white was considered very good for crush strength to prevent plugs and there is a lot of it beneath western Wisconsin topsoil. Once used by glassmakers and cranberry this became a useful source of supplies from 2015 onwards. Demand surged till 2018 when new supplies were found in West Texas which would reduce costs of transportation. Wages in these mining jobs were about $8 higher than other jobs for people with less education. After 2011 financial crisis and the loss of manufacturing jobs to China this provided a new source of higher paying jobs for less educated workers and paid for local government to provide services including in one town a new swimming pool for the recreation complex. This has proved to be temporary with many mines closing in 2019 and in 2020 after the pandemic. ...

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This Spiegel report looks at how far Germany has come in tackling the refugee crisis one year later in September 2016. It looks at the progress in several areas- housing, integration through language training, jobs and the labor market, school age children, crime, deportation, political scene and elections. Maintaining public support in the face of incidents such as the ones in Cologne and some terrorist incidents, the protests in cities such as Dresden, was tackled by negotiating a treaty with Turkey to turn back new refugees, and by letting countries in southeastern Europe such as Hungary to close routes used previously. Internal agreement with the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the CDU, led to a reduction in refugees granted asylum for each month in 2016. About 220,000 migrants were newly registered in the first half of 2016. Germany's EASY registration system shows 92,000 migrants registered in January and the number dropping to 16,000 in July.  Here are some of the figures on progress as cited by Spiegel. On BAMF, the Federal Office of Migration and Refugees- It has increased staff from 2300 employees in early 2015 to 8000, with many new offices opened, significantly more efficient than before. Housing- about a million refugees have found housing. Thousands of empty beds in emergency shelters and 1000 repurposed gyms are no longer needed. Smaller cities and towns have done better than large cities like Berlin, with hangars at Tempelhof Airport still housing refugees. Barbara Hendricks, Federal Environment and Building Minister of SPD party, has tripled funding for subsidized housing to 1.5 billion euros for 2018. Hendricks wants to repeal a constitutional amendment that shifts housing responsibility to states, so that the federal government is actively involved. Integration- BAMF head Weise estimates a shortage of 200,000 slots in language and integration courses. About 80,000 Afghans are not eligible for the programs. So far estimates by KMK representing education ministers of the 16 federal states, shows 325,000 children and young people integrated into school system in 2014 and 2015. Spiegel estimates 12,000 teachers were hired for this, and an additional 20,000 are needed says GEW. 58,000 daycare spots are needed for children arrived in 2015, and 9400 additional daycare personnel are needed. Wages have been raised. Jobs- The Federal Employment Office says 322,000 refugees were registered and seeking jobs in July 2016. Crime- Police crime statistics show 4% increase but when the asylum and visa related offenses are taken out the crime has not increased as it has appeared in the media. The events in Cologne had started a debate on this issue after teenagers harassed women near the Cathedral square. BKA Federal Criminal Polic Office says 1031 assaults on refugee accomodations happened in 2015, 665 in 2016. Incidents of Islamic terrorists happened in Wurzburg and Ansbach, and authorites have become more vigilant.  Deportation- the central register of foreign nationals has about 220,000 people who have to leave Germany. Because of wars in home countries 172,000 are still in Germany. Political scene- CDU and CSU sister parties have disagreements on immigration policy. There is fear about the country changing. Yet the new children in schools are only about 2% of the school children in Germany. As immigrants are mostly young people who will be required to take language training and integrate in schools and workplaces, the situation is different from the first wave of workers coming in from Turkey in early postwar period. Also lessons have been learned and integration is being required.   So has the most difficult period in this immigration crisis been put behind for Germany? It appears that this is the situation. Germany's economy was strong during the "wilkommen refugees" and it has helped the country deal with it better. The volunteer support certainly helped. State, city, and business leaders responded. What about the claims of Islamization. Because so many of the refugees are from a relatively progressive country such as Syria, and many from urban literate areas, combined with a policy of integration, this could prove to be a different experience for Germany. Because many left because of religious sectarianism or corrupt governments the immigrant mentality as a whole barring some exceptions, is likely different, seeking integration in a different modern culture that prizes the individual and respects his development. Over time and sooner than many realize, Merkel may be proved right when she says- "Germany will be Germany, with everything that is near and dear to us." When it comes to politics the CDU and CSU are taking the "homeland" theme as their own. Across the Atlantic Germany's example is being followed- as the number just a trickle about 4000 refugees admitted in 2014, has been increased to 110,000 for 2017 by president Obama, showing the power of the example in the face of adversity and skepticism. German culture and society tended to be insular and the experience of this type, difficult as it has been, and not something that was actively sought out, may have a positive effect. Particularly with the scarred immigrants who may want to embrace the new culture and not look back at what they left behind.   ...