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The Roberts Supreme Court's liberal leaning tendency with swing Justice Anthony Kennedy in 2014-2015. Bravin describes the tendency of the Robert's court to stay with the status quo. Restraint and stability appear to be strong preferences for Justices Kennedy and Roberts as seen in the ruling on the Affordable Care Act, and in the ruling on the Environmental Protection Agency. The four liberal Justices on the court, Kagan, Sotomayor, Breyer, and Ginsburg voted consistently together in 2015.

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Kansans come out at a town hall meeting in rural Palco, Kansas, setup by Senator Moran, to say they have serious problems with the healthcare bill in a Republican Congress. Kaplan of the NYT says few Republicans in Congress have setup town hall meetings to hear the views of people in their constituency because of the strong criticism from older Americans hurt by the bill's provisions. Rural Kansas is affected by the bill. Senator Moran says of the bill that he is from rural Kansas and wants to hear what people think. Senator Moran is one of the few Republican Senators who have come out against the bill. Kansans are realizing that policy matters after the experience with actions taken by Governor Brownback to cut taxes and spending. Now Kansans are also realizing that there is a cost to being ideologically driven in coming up with solutions whether from the right or the left of the spectrum. Senator Moran after all is in the mainstream and led the 2014 effort to give Republicans control of Congress. It is also the state of Dwight Eisenhower, whose hometown was Abilene, Kansas, known for being moderate on issues, a descendent of down to earth Pennsylvania Dutch families, and for saying- "a people that values its privileges above its principles soon loses both." Here Moran does exactly that, listening to how the Republican healthcare bill affects rural Kansas, without getting muddled up with the politics on the issue. ...

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Plastic water bottle use surged with a shift to single bottle use of bottled water as a preferred option to using sugar drinks and sodas. In the U.S. this use has surged 284% since 1994, with 67% of the bottled water sold not in jugs but in single use convenience type plastic water bottles.  Manufacturers of plastic water bottles have failed to come up with a technology that makes the kind of plastic that can be easily recycled. Danone's bottled water company Evian brand makes about 30% of its plastic water bottles from recycled plastic and no aims at shifting entirely to recycled plastic by 2025.  Images of bottles filling landfills and hurting sealife have led to consumer opposition to their prolific use. Ocean Conservancy says plastic water bottles are behind cigarette butts and food wrappers the thrid most item washing up on shorelines.  Curbs- Cities in Massachusetts along the coastline are banning their use. New York City is banning the sale in parks, beaches, of these bottles. And the European parliament  is backing laws for member states to collect 90% of these bottles for recycling by 2025. Mumbai has banned this year eater being sold in small bottles. The importance of this is now sinking in. ...

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JP Morgan estimates that 150 million Chinese were in the stock market at the end of 2007. THese would be in the urban areas and in large cities where the brokerage houses are located. As a percentage of the new middle class this is is a significant part of the urban population. The drop in the Shanghai stock exchange of 46% from its high in October 2007 is going to significantly impact consumption in 2008 and 2009 as savings of the average person on the street have taken a big hit And 15-20 % of the earnings of pubicly listed companies on the Shanghai stock exchangenot involved in banking and finance came from stock trading gains according to experts. If you add the earnings of financial companies and banks then you have banks having large losses which happened in Japan from the drop in their stock assets holdings, and reluctant to lend to business leading to a tightening in credit and a contraction in the economy from another angle. Something similiar to what happened to banks in the USA but in that case originating from a housing bubble. The industrial companies that engaged in stock trading would also have a drop in assets and earnings and thus have less to invest. That this would lead to a small drop in growth rates is not plausible, growth rates dropping from 11 to 9% as some experts say. Because there are overextensions in other areas such as real estate and other negative factors such as rising inflation including rising food prices, rising oil prices, and rising labor costs, and a slowdown in the export sector as markets in the western countries especially in the US go through a protracted slowdown. All these factors take time to have an impact and one could see much lower growth rates taking the pressure off oil demand and oil prices. A similar situation may be seen in other countries like India where the Bombay stock exchange dropped 31% from its high late last year and 53% drop in Vietnam. Vietnam and India may benefit from a shift in production from China as companies try to look for alternatives to the higher cost environment in China but they would still see a significant drop in growth rates before resuming high growth rates. ...

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Marchionne's major achievement is the genuine integration of Fiat's operations with Chrysler's operations using the strengths of both parts of the operation. Daimler showed little interest in doing this and the result was a failure of the merger between Daimler and Chrysler. Another aspect is the use of Fiat's Alfa Romeo and Maserati models to build new Chrysler vehicles. The new Dodge Dart which gives 40 miles per gallon and which gives Chrysler entry into the small car market, is based on the chassis and technology of Fiat's Alfa Romeo brand. Another vehicle of this type is the Maserati Kubang, an affluent buyer SUV based on the Jeep Grand Cherokee.

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A open conversation with the NYT's Baker, Schmidt and Haberman by president Trump in mid July 2017. This conversation of the president with the NYT is remarkable for its frankness about people close to the president during the election campaign, particularly Jeff Sessions of Alabama. Sessions was the only leading Senator in Congress who supported Mr. Trump from the beginning. Southern states came out heavily for Mr. Trump as part of the traditional Republican base. Trump says of Sessions that had he known Sessions was going to recuse himself from the Russia investigation he would not have appointed Sessions as the new Attorney General. About Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein Trump says he should never have appointed Mueller as Special Counsel. The president also says Mueller should stay only with information related to Russia and not stray from that to delve into Trump's finances. During the election efforts were made to get Mr. Trump to disclose more about his finances as a real estate businessman- most of these efforts failed and not much is known about president Trump's finances. The president says he never said he would order the Justice Department to fire Mr. Mueller, yet he left open this possiblility, according to the NYT, as the president feels it has affected the first 6 months of the Trump presidency. This interview with president Trump was published on July 20, 2017, the day after an editorial in the WSJ by the Editorial Board of the Journal on July 19, 2017, calling for transparency from president Trump on the Russia investigation. This was an exceptional and powerful editorial by its editorial board telling president Trump that he must tell everything he knows now or face the risk of losing public confidence, and risk his presidency. It said that president Trump was wrong to think that his larger than life personality and social media role could insulate him from the effects of this lack of transparency. ...

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Kessler and Lee do the fact check in the Washington Post on Hillary Clinton's comment in the third Democratic U.S. presidential debate in Dec. 2015. Clinton says "Donald Trump is becoming ISIS's best recruiter. They are going to people showing videos of Donald Trump insulting Islam and Muslims in order to recruit more radical jihadists." This was an effort by Clinton to distinguish her approach to terrorism from that of Trump. Kessler and Lee say Clinton referred to videos of ISIS that so far cannot be found. The closest to this is an NBC news report citing Rita Katz of the SITE Intelligence Group monitoring Islamic terrorist groups that Trump's comment on barring entry of Muslims to the U.S. could be used as a recruiting tool. The Clinton campign says Hillary was referring to this.

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Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, says central bank "independence is lost when monetary policy is tied to the wagon of fiscal policy and then loses control over prices." Weidmann and Merkel emphasize their continued opposition to euro-bonds. Merkel tells the German parliament on Dec. 14, 2011, euro-bonds "aren't suitable as a rescue measure." Italian prime minister Mario Monti, tells the Italian Senate: "the Italian government insisted heavily on euro bonds, which are not a back-door way to allow fiscal laxity but will boost growth." Monti says the euro bond proposals will be on the agenda for the EU summit in March. Italy auctioned its 5 year bonds at 6.47%, as German two year bonds had a yield of 0.29%, showing the widening divergence between the bonds of the two countries.

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Patrick Chovanec of Tsinghua University, says the loan target for 2011, though smaller than 2010, will still be over one and a half times the money lent in 2008. Stephen Green, head of research for Standard Chartered, says if anyone is printing money, it appears to be China's central bank, not the US. During a meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing goals are being set for the next 12 months. One expert predicts the governmet may set official targets of 4% inflation (it is running at about 4.7% at this time) and 6.5 trillion yuan of lending in new loans in 2011, compared to 7.5 trillion in 2010. Questions remain whether China can manage a soft landing after the huge surge in lending and the continued asset bubble.

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The handling of the oil spill by the Obama administration threatens to permanently affect the image of the Obama administration. There may be a spillover effect from BP's ineptness that draws in Obama's and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar's handling of the crisis. The Obama administration relied too much on BP to bring an end to the crisis. And it has not articulated aclear policy for regulation of technologically sophisticated industries like investment banking, deepwater oil drilling and other industries of this type where alot can go wrong. Tough inspections are needed in these industries and strict regulation for the proper operation of capitalism. Financial regulatory reform bills in Congress also have suffered from being whittled down so that strict regulation is far from being a reality to avoid future crises.

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The cost to France of Greece's exit from the euro would be 66 billion euros, and for Germany 90 billion euros, according to the director of research at the IESEG School of Management in Lille, France. Greece would pay back some of its debt with the devalued currency, so the actual cost might be lower. This is closer to the estimate of 50 billion euros for France by the departing French finance minister, and the estimate of 125 billion euros for Germany by a German bank. IIF estimates are much higher but the IIF and Mr. Dallara will find the bonds issued by Greece under the restructuring of little value in the event of exit from the euro, which is why it would not favor an exit and present it in a different light.

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France's Finance Minister Michael Sapin introduces a no-austerity budget in September 2014 as France's growth is forecast at 0.4% in 204 and not reaching 2% till 2017. Sapin says "we have taken the decision to adapt the pace of deficit reduction to the situation in the country." The government will put off large parts of the 50 billion euros in cuts in spending towards the latter part of the period to 2017. Critics on the left say the cuts are undermining the social welfae model of France. President Hollande's popularity has declined to very low levels in 2014. Prime minister Valls wins support in the National Assembly for the government's strategy to tackle the economy and growth- increase business confidence and postpone cuts till the economy recovers by 2016.

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Elisa Lipsky-Karasz's fascinating account of the life Julia Roberts has built for herself on a quiet street in a modest home in Malibu, being that mom across the street no more, no less, as she raises 9 year old twins Hazel and Finn and 6 year old Henry. The actress famous for Erin Brockovich (2000) and other movies leads a simple life with the coming an going of school days and spring vacation being the key points of the year. Any movies are done on her schedule and now focuses on narrower topics such as the fight against AIDS of a doctor who is a polio survivor- The Normal Heart was done during children's summer and Thanksgiving vacations. And its a life she is grateful for, being just like anybody else on that street.

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Japan's new LDP prime minister, Shinzo Abe, supports targeting the yen at around 90 yen to the dollar to support Japanese exporters. He sees this happening through monetary easing by Japan's central bank. At a rate of 85 yen to the dollar or above Japanese exporters would be in a position to become profitable and pay taxes. Abe says central banks around the world, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are printing money to support their economies and increase exports. Switzerland and S. Korea pursued policies to keep their currencies from becoming too strong to support their exporters. China has managed its exchange rate to maintain export competitiveness. Exchange rate intervention has not been effective for Japan, and the focus now is on monetary policy and setting a 2% inflation rate target.

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Brenner of McGill University and Fridson of S&P say the Bernanke Federal Reserve in the U.S. is doing what President Truman and Treasury Secretary Snyder did in the war and postwar years- paying down the U.S. debt as cheaply as possible by inflating the money supply. There are no new monetary insights here, and even though the policy is maintained outwardly as one to promote economic growth and employment, the main focus is to keep the cost of paying down the debt as cheaply as possible with low rates. This hurts savers and retirees earning very little on savings. They cite Bernanke's writings that show he is imitating the policy of the war years when the U.S. held down interest rates and succeeded in doing this for a decade.

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The GM restructuring plan of the Obama administration, as GM enters bankruptcy, was designed so that the UAW plays a constructive role in building the new GM. There is a wage freeze, and a no-strike clause until 2015. The union gets a 17.5% ownership of GM, which helps to align the union's interests in improving the share price. At the same time the unions health fund's shares are novoting, so that the union does not make decisions for the company. At Chrysler even though the union has 55% ownership shares, it has only one person on the Board. In the same way the union has a limited role in running GM. The idea is to get the union out of the us vs. they habits of the last 50 years.

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New proposals from the President tend to go back from his promise of tranparency . Its the administration that will decide under this proposal what constitutes anational security leak. A clear federal standard would let ajudge decide whether national security was affected. In reality the argument goes the other way becauseit hurts the public's right to know, and it does this to avoid embarrassment. Some in the administration want to take this route and President Obama s willing to go back on tranparency pledges he made. A good media shield law that is aclear federal standard in addition to state shield laws would trust the judiciary to decide, now Obama is going back on his pledge for anew era of openness especially when two wars are being fought and there is a global economic crisis.

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How the Drug Industry and Drug Companies will go through a complete change and look nowhere near what it looks like today. Huge changes are overtaking the Drug industry and old ways of doing things will go out the window. Patent expirations for blockbuster drugs, safety issues, increased regulation, rise of generics drugs, cost issues, outsourcing of manufacture and testing and some R&D, changes in marketing practices, slimming down of marketing and sales force personnel, new approaches to R&D- Novartis emphasizing science, Glaxo breaking up into smaller teams, and the growth of emerging markets. All this happens as the public in the USA looks at healthcare in anew way and the demand for healthcare expands quickly in growing developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America and Eastern Europe.

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The Chinese government raised the retail price of diesel by 18% to the equivalent of $3.58 a gallon, and the price of gasoline by 16% to $3.83 a gallon. Electricity prices and the price of jet fuel were also increased. The Chinese government decided that it could not provide subsidies for the rising prices of oil indefinitely even if the price increases mean higher inflation. Inflation was 7.7% in May 2008, and 8% in February, March and April. Prices for gasoline and diesel have been fixed in China since Nov 1, 2007, even though world oil prices have risen 45% in this period. Farmers were exempted from the price increase and tractors and farm equipment get priority allocation of fuel, three quake hit provinces of Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu are also exempt.

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A neuroscientist writes about the effects of fear. When the fear system of the brain is active, exploratory active and risk-taking are turned off, which is what happens to companies and leaders in business also as fear of collapse makes banks and financial institutions unwilling to lend, and freezes up the credit markets . The same thing occurs as the market for corporate bonds dries up for lack of buyers who also huddle up and try to wait things out. This effect may also acccount for the need for a determined and informed government backed by research and think tanks, like the new Obama transition team, to take the initiative, as the government has the resources to break this logjam and craft new solutions in exploratory and risktaking investment activity and national policymaking.

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Making some territorial concessions appears to be the only way for peace talks to succeed. For a long time there was insistence on territorial sovereignty of Ukraine by EU and NATO leaders. This appears to have prolonged the war- with needless loss of life on both sides, and costly damage to Ukraine infrastructure, a population that had to face additional winters and hardship in war ravaged areas. NATO's Stoltenberg from Norway, leaders of northern Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK, could take that position without having to face the hardship of the war. NATO had to be re-formed under a new name and new structure  following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with wariness about the possibility of centuries old since 1700 UK and Nordic historical adversarial relationship with Russia casting a shadow over that organization, and embroiling the US in conflicts not of its own choice or of wise leadership. This is the root cause of the Ukraine war. It would have been best to completely restructure NATO and give it a new name without Northern European nations leading it. Principles matter once soviet communism was no longer there NATO formed for its expansionism in 1950's had served it's purpose. Rasmussen from Denmark and Stoltenberg from Norway led the organization for the last decade and half from 2009-2014 and 2014 to 2025, with backing from Obama/Merkel for most of the period of the war in Ukraine. Also most of the period NATO expanded to Russian borders happened under Northern European leaders from Spain, Britain and Nordics (Solana, Robertson, Scheffer, Rasmussen and Stoltenberg) and the organization NATO getting the northern European slant based on historical adversarial relationship of Britain and Russia since 1700- for no other reason than the British wanting to protect its large Empire and commerce in India which in the 18th and 19th century included most of Asia. Under Robertson the UK Defense Secretary much of this transformation into turning NATO into something anti-Russian happened which was primarily because of British and Nordic perceptions of Russia as an adversary. Robertson added the following countries at the Prague Summit in 2002 to NATO- the Baltics, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Russia faced internal upheaval in those years and Yeltsin in resigned in 1999, Putin was elected in 2000. It is clear that Russia had suffered severe economic hardship in that period and Putin's first goal in 2002 was to stabilize the economy.  It could be said that this turning NATO over to UK and Nordics was a huge mistake considering that Russia was still the largest nuclear power after the US, and British policy was now determining US policy. And Britain's Robertson/NATO should not have involved itself in the Afghanistan war using Article 5, as the US could have handled this alone and limited that engagement. It got US involved in another conflict, conflict with Russia that was to come in Ukraine on the side of the Baltics and Ukraine, without US clearly understanding what the roots of that war was about and implied confrontation with Russia 20 years after the Prague Summit in 2002 under George Bush junior. The incompetence of Bush and Obama/Merkel laid the seeds of the Ukraine war in 2022 following Robertson, Rasmussen, Stoltenberg, small Nordic nations and Britain creating a conflict that did not need to happen, with loss of hundreds of thousands of lives of Russian speaking fraternal peoples of both Russia and Ukraine. The Republican sentiment under DJT of the tragedy of such huge losses of young people, and desire to end this loss of life, can nowhere be seen in bellicose talk in northern European nations, that take the US for granted to fight their wars.  The wisdom of Washington, Lincoln and TR/FDR clearly caution in getting involved in European centuries old animosities. For the US it meant in practical terms that it could no longer carry out the Monroe Doctrine essential for peace and good governance in the western hemisphere as only a Russia desperate to make its views known about NATO would interfere in the western hemisphere against US assertion of the Monroe Doctrine with the US Navy. Instead drug trafficking gangs took over Latin American countries and created a flow of fentanyl and millions of people through migrant traffickers across the US southern border. As America has expressed its concern for loss of Russian and Ukrainian men in the war for the first time under DJT Russia has distanced itself from Venezuela, Mexico and Latin America. The loss of hundreds of thousands of young Americans to fentanyl is a shared tragedy with the loss of hundreds of thousands of young Russians and Ukrainians in the last decade. How reliable are Northern European countries when it comes to protecting the eastern seaboard of the US with the acquisition of Greenland? It is a policy pursued by presidents since the Alaska Acquisition from Russia. By Seward, Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman and DJT. Denmark the land where NATO secretary general Rasmussen was from followed by Stoltenberg from Norway  (for 15 of the years of the war in Ukraine 2010-2025) the US efforts to protect its eastern seaboard are rebuffed by both Denmark and Norway, and the US presented in a negative light as an imperialist power in the face of Danish East India Company's  colonial attitude since 1700 clearly imitating the colonial British East India company.  It shows Northern European nations looking out for themselves not for the US, and embroiling the US in their wars at the cost of the entire western hemisphere being destabilized. The population of UK, Denmark and Norway, Baltics is far less than the Mumbai, Shanghai, Sao Paulo , Berlin and Tokyo regions. Should the views of a small population in northern Europe of 2% of the total determine the future of US, Europe, China, India, Brazil, and other parts of the world with 5 billion people the 98%, when issues of war and nuclear conflict, nuclear buildup, the western hemisphere destabilized with drug trafficking gangs running rampant in countries, divide the world in opposing blocs, when the wellbeing of most of the world's people in Asia and Latin America, Africa is at stake by establishing a essential degree of cooperation by all sides. The US under DJT has chosen a wise policy of cooperation over conflict -with China, with Russia, with all the major powers, and with smaller powers. Reading the wisdom contained in the writings of Washington, Lincoln, TR/FDR confirms it is clearly the wise choice. ...

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The share of new mortgage loans backed by the US government through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is at 92%. This makes the fast overhaul of the two agencies much more difficult. Treasury Secretary Geithner said last week that overhaul of the two agencies could take 5 to 7 years. The problems with Fannie and Freddie are real. The U.S. government subsidizes mortgages through Fannie and Freddie, encouraging Americans to take on more debt. Their balance sheets pose serious risks in another crisis, as long term investments are financed with short term borrowing. Any losses will be the responsibility of the US government. A recent paper from the US Treasury outlined some of the steps needed to wind down both agencies and to reform the way they operated including- requiring larger down payments and lowering loan limits, and increasing the fees charged for the government's guarantees to be more in line with the risk being taken. Slower reform in this area means additional systemic risks in the event of another crisis....

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The Journal editorial points out that the refusal to seriously look at the restructuring of Greece's debt is moving from the amusing to the dangerous. Greek 2 year bonds yield 20%, and credit default swaps are priced as though a default is likely. EU denials continue, but Greek, German EU and IMF officials are conceding in private the need to look at this option. The EU thinking was that openly discussing debt restructuring would lead to capital flight, and better to muddle through than to have Greek and European banks take losses and need further bailouts. The editorial emphasizes the importance of Greece restructuring its debt in an orderly fashion. Financial markets have already priced in the likelihood of debt restructuring. Better to conduct serious stress tests with sovereign default scenarios and let investors, taxpayers and governments respond in an orderly way to this situation. The worst possible situation is a Lehman Brothers type panic. The lack of clarity was the biggest problem with Lehman, and the resulting uncertainty led to the financial panic....

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Small farmowners hate to see good fruit and vegetables go to waste just because of odd shape and appearance, even if it is just as nutritious. EU standards across Europe for fruits and vegetables made it difficult to get this farm produce to consumers. EU standards are now being revised, but supermarkets set their own standards and continue to accept fruit and vegetables only with "a slight defect in shape and development." A study by the Dutch and Swedish governments show Europe wastes 89 million tons of food a year and the two governments called on the EU "to reduce the amount of food waste caused by its labeling system." In Portugal as much as a fourth of the fruits and vegetables are at risk of waste because of such rules, according to small farm owners. Ugly Fruit, is a company trying to get this produce to consumers at lower prices in Lisbon. Farmowners say the idea that quality can be measured only by appearance is a mistake, as nutrition levels and flavor can be the same.

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The Chicago Board Options Volatility Index has dropped frm a high of 80 last fall around the time of the Lehman brothers collapse, to 30 last week. So has the volatility gone? No one can be sure. Sam Stovall, investment strategist for Standard and Poors does not thinks so. He says history has shown that the rallies in the depths of bear markets are different, because they are almost always followed by a retesting of market lows. The market tends to get adecline after it looks at the fundamentals and any deep seated problems that remain. Stovall's research shows that the market retested going back to 1957, and the average event lowered stock prices 7%, but in the really big downturns like the current one, the S&P went down about 14%, on average. Assuming that the market peaked on May 8 with the S&P 500 at 929, and acorrection of 14% ocurred, the S&P would be at 799. A drop of this magnitude would mean that panic would return, says Stovall.