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Republicans increase support among Latinos from 28% in 2016 to 36% in 2020 and 37% in 2024, a one point gain in 2024. Democrats support at 68% 2016, 62% in 2020, and 56% in 2024. Both parties are talking a tough law and order line on immigration at the Border.

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Hong and Inman describe the deep experience in capital markets that Hong Kong has and Shanghai lacks, which China needs for further development. Even before the handover capital markets in Hong Kong have helped China, and many of China's largest companies have listings in Hong Kong. Hong is also the laboratory for China to make financial innovations for the last three decades, because of capital account controls on the mainland. A bad bank Cinda Asset management Company only recently raised $2.5 billion for buying non-performing loans from Chinese banks. Hong Kong's separate status within China, its Briain based legal system which has credibility in the international community, the rule of law, independent judiciary and independent police are critical to how it developed into an international financial hub for Asia. Any crackdown on protestors would disturb this arrangement. As China has already promised universal suffrage in 2017- which implies free elections not limited by restricted nominations as is now proposed in a change in 2014- and the Basic Law passed before the handover by Britain in 1997 also ensuring this, any retraction is only going back on past promises. A crackdown would create fears about Hong Kong's future autonomy for international financial institutions, and the bad publicity for China would affect Hong Kong and China adversely. ...

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By June 10, 2010, the Democratic Party of Japan has recovered in poll ratings with 60% ratings for the new premier Naoto Kan and the DPJ. Ratings for Mr Hatoyama had dropped to 20% by the time he resigned. Hatoyama resigned June 2, 2010.

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German banks have the largest exposure in Europe to Spain- $139.9 billion in 2012. Of this $45.9 billion is exposure to Spanish banks, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The Landesbanks in Germany have a large exposure in covered bonds to Spain, which are covered by collateral in the form of residential mortgages that have lost value and could lead to losses. At the same time they are not likely to default says Leef Dierks of Morgan Stanley, because they are used as collateral to borrow from the ECB. Some of these cedulas or jumbo covered bonds are trading at 52 cents on the dollar, according to Mr. Dierks. Geman banks have limited loss absorption capacity says Moody's. Moody's has reduced Germany's outlook to "negative" from "stable" for this reason, and warned Germany could lose its triple A credit rating.

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This article by Horowitz in the NYT shows some of the criticism leveled against the Clintons and how they were out of touch with the white working class voters who have drifted to Mr. Trump.  It may be overdone in that not all white working class voters have drifted to Trump, and a Gallup survey has shown Trump supporters to be some white working class but also many from other groups in society, and many older less educated voters.  Trade Unions have played a large role in this election, and workers in manufacturing have voted Democratic in midwestern states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois. Horowitz also ignores some points in this campaign such as when Bill Clinton was adept at openly stating that he agreed with people who said Obamacare had increased premiums, and that some of the Obamacare program needed to be fixed. This took some of the criticism of Republicans on Obamacare and turned this around. He also showed a better understanding at times of the plight of working class people just from his habit of listening and thinking about how this affects ordinary people, a skill he has even to this day. A 2014 NBC/WSJ poll showed Bill Clinton with a 56 percent favorability rating, which is higher than president Obama, and exceeded only by Michelle Obama at 64 percent. ...

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Fiat's third auto manufacturing hub in Eastern Europe, after Poland and Turkey, is in Serbia. Fiat is investing 700 million euros together with the Serbian government in the old automobile plant at Zastava. In Tito's Yugoslavia under the socialist system this plant manufactured the Yugo automobile. About 220,000 cars were manufactured here with 16,000 factory workers in the 1980's. The Yugo was based on the Fiat 127 model in 1980, and the relationship with Fiat goes back to 1954. After the war following the breakup of Yugoslavia the plant was partly destroyed and it recently turned out 15,000 Punto hatchbacks a year under Fiat license. Fiat Automobili Srbija, is a new joint venture formed in Dec. 2009, with 67% ownership by Fiat and 33% by the Serbian government. About 1000 employees of the 2600 at the plant were brought back and another 1433 will be hired to start production. Wages in Serbia are about 300 euros a month, and the Serbian government plans to make the country a manufacturing hub with special incentives. Plans are for 200,000 cars in 2 models to be made at the Zastava plant in 2011-2012, with 100,000 more planned in subsequent years....

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RBS says it had a 2011 net loss of about 2 billion pounds. The UK government has 83% ownership in RBS. RBS paid out about 1 billion pounds in bonuses for 2011. This was after strong criticism of bonus practices in the media. RBS shares are at 28 pence, significantly below the 50.2 pence per share paid by the UK government during the recent financial crisis.

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This exceptional report by Ian Talley in the WSJ cites trade and currency expert William Cline about the prospect of a worsening trade deficit under the Trump administration. With an improving economy, says Cline, the dollar had already surged about 8% beyond its fair market value during the last 2 years under president Obama as the economy improved. After Trump's election it surged another 3%. This makes it likely that the trade deficit could approach 4% of GDP with the stronger dollar. More protectionist policy to support U.S. industry, worsening trade deficits, more trade friction could be expected in these conditions. He does point out that markets may be overestimating what will be spent on infrastructure, and how much interest rates will go up which support a stronger dollar. Yet the fact remains that under an administration that is keen on promoting U.S. exports a dynamic is underway that makes U.S. exports actually less competitive in international markets.

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1. ACCELERATION OF DECLINING PRODUCTION FROM GULF OF MEXICO AS DRILLING RIGS LEAVE THE GULF. Offshore oil production mostly in the Gulf fell by 19% between 2003 and 2005. Natural gas production fell by about 22% from 2001 to 2004, according to EIA. The drilling rigs jack-up rigs and deep-water rigs that drill for oil and gas are declining rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico. There were 148 rigs in 2001, now only 90 remain with more leaving soon. Many of the rigs that are leaving are jack-up rigs, used for drilling for natural gas in shallower waters, and this should lead to a pronounced effect on natural gas production. Gulf Gas reservoirs that use these jack-up rigs are quickly exhausted requiring new wells to be drilled to just maintain production. Fewer rigs available mean upward pressure on natural gas prices more so than oil because gas is a market supplied locally. EIA estimates natural gas will move from recent close (July 5, 2006) of $6.10 per million BTU's to a price of $10.00 by end of 2007. This compares with a price in 2001 of $2.43. Hurrican related disruptions pushed oil prices up by $10 a barrel for hurricanes Katrina and Rita, in each of two years, so there will be continued upward pressure on oil price from this acceleration in production declines in the Gulf. 2. SEA CHANGE IN THE OFFSHORE DRILLING RIG MARKET, IN DAY RATES, IN PREFERRED DRILLING LOCATIONS, AND IN RIG PRODUCTION. The hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed 5 rigs. What is a bigger effect is that drilling companies are signing longterm deals with companies overseas. Global Santa Fe Corp. for instance signed a deal last month to send 4 jack-up rigs to Saudi Aramco at $160,000 per day, for 4 years. Ensco International will send one to Tunisia at rates approaching $200,000 for 2 years. There are hotter prospects for petroleum offshore in the Middle east, and in Africa, whereas the easier drilling spots in the Gulf have already been tapped. Worldwide 91 major offshore rigs are under construction compared to 10 in 2003 according to ODS-Petrodata. The new rigs may take till 2009 and may have delays so as to come out after 2009. They cost $160-190 million for one jack-up rig and about $600 million for one deep-water rig. All this has pushed day rates throug the roof. BP PLC agreed to pay Transocean Inc $520,000 a day for three years for a massive drill ship. The same ship cost BP PLC $185,000 a day in 2004. The drilling ship is as large as 3 football fields and can drill in oceans upto 10,000 feet deep. ...

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Following the fifth North Korean nuclear test DW.com talks with Rudiger Frank about the test and what this means. Frank says the negotiations with North Korea and efforts to limit the program so far have been a colossal failure. Tests have continued and without a change in strategy more tests will be followed by the usual condemnations by world leaders and further sanctions. Frank says this change in strategy would include recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state, and getting North Korea to ensure the weapons are safe and secure in the country, getting a clear idea of what and where the weapons are. The International Atomic Agency would be asked to go in and make inspections. The next step would be to freeze the program at some level agreed to. This is a tough step to take but it only recognizes the reality of the situation, and continued development by North Korea of nuclear weapons if no steps for change are taken. 

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Analysts are predicting billions of euros of writedowns for European banks in 2009 and 2010 and these will be tough years for these banks. 98 billion euros of impaorments are expected in 2009 , up from 77 billion euros in 2008, according to analysts in a Credit Suisse report. This will present further challenges to European governments which have already injected 70 billion euros to keeo the banking sectors from going under.

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Drug company is using a new tactic for pricingits narcolepsy drug Provigil. It has increased Provigil's price by 28% in 2008, and 74% more expensive than in 2004. he tactic is to shift users to the longer acting deliberately lower priced longer acting version of Provigil called Nuvigil which has patent protection till 2023. Provigil by contrase faces patent expiration in 2012. This is its way of fighting cheaper generics.

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This editorial in the New York Times is strongly critical of former president Barack Obama for accepting $400,000 in speaking fees from Wall Street for a single speech. It says the news is causing people to question the ideas and words presented by Obama in his books about the dangers of losing sight of the interests of ordinary people. It gives the impression says the NYT, that Obama is cashing in like everybody else, and that his talk was empty. The editorial says the millions raised by Hillary Clinton led to her defeat in the election. Obama is reported to plan a foundation with the work of training a new generation of political leaders. This NYT editorial says it would be better to stay true to vision and purpose, to walk the talk for president Obama, especially now that a recent poll shows two thirds of voters, including about half of Democrats say that the Democratic Party is out of touch with the interests of the American People. By associating this closely with wealthy donors leading Democrats contributed to this. During a period when some of the remarkable achievements of the last fifty years such as the European Union are being called into question, when ordinary working people, young people and older people are struggling, this is all the more a tone deaf approach by politicians. The idea of helping train a new generation of political leaders through a foundation sounds bizarre in this context, and seems to suggest politicians believe there is always a solution through marketing their audacity and money.   ...

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The far right Vox party is expected to double its seats in parliament following its stance opposing Catalan separatism. The new party was formed in Spain as separatists continued protests in 2017-2019 following an unconstitutional referendum.

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Petrobras and the discovery 200 miles offfshore of the Tupi field with estimated reserves of 5-8 billion barrels of light crude oil. As Brazil is self sufficient in energy with its own ethanol industry helping substitute ethanol for oil at the pump, it can become a major exporter with this find. However even with Petrobras technology and expertise in offshore drilling its a challenge as the oil is 4.5 miles below the oceans surface, and involves drilling through 7000 feet of water and 17000 feet of sand rock and massive salt layer. Cost could approach $20 billion according to analysts with current inflation in oil drilling rig costs. It involves challenges like building floating liquefied natural gas plants. Gabrielli, the Petrobras CEO thinks Petrobras has the expertise to develop it on its own. If oil majors are given the chance to join in the development the investment terms will be ones that favor Brazil. Gabrielli pointed this out saying that Brazil had already incurred most of the risk in exploration offshore so the oil majors have far less risk and Brazil should invite them only on its own terms if needed. The Tupi field puts Brazil ahead of Canada in oil reserves and in the leagues of China and Nigeria, with new Brazilian reserves at 17.2 billion from the 12.2 billion barrels currently. Brazil has invested in refineries with 2 new refineries coming up in 2010 and 2014 to increase refining capacity by 40%. It is also investing to convert heavy crude oil into diesel and $8.6 billion to reduce sulfur at 11 refineries. The Tupi field will take about 7 years to develop. Similiarly the Kashgan field in the Caspian in Kazakhstan is also in difficult in this case icy and gases filled environment that will take years for a Eni led consortium to develop. When oil does come will the demand situation have changed with new conservation taking hold in the developed world and the cars in developing countries more like the Tata Nano at 54 miles per gallon consuming less gasoline? Even with increase in energy needs of developing countries, improved efficiency and new technology for conservation brought into developing countries could if not significantly reduce, at least moderate demand. To the point where prices drop from $100 a barrel to something more affordable to developing countries....

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Bradley and Nabhan of the WSJ report from Quara Tepe in Iraq and the weak Iraqi military unable to control parts of the country from attacks by better armed and trained ISIS militants, some from the old Iraqi army before the U.S. invasion and others from the war in Syria. The failure of the Maliki government to bring together Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, as a new election apporaches and Maliki is likely to be elected for a third term. A divided parliament and the lack of U.S. presence after the withdrawal in 2011 at Malik's insistence. The U.S. has refrained from supplying the Iraqi military for fear of aggravating ethnic tensions, with the Sunnis saying Maliki is practicing ethnic cleansing under the guise of fighting terrorism. Under Maliki Iraqi airspace has been used to supply the Assad regime from Iran, according to some reports, making the U.S. wary of supplying the Iraqi military as it has little influence left.

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Matina Stevis provides a glimpse of the views in Athens for retirees, students, company employees, and other people, as Greece heads for a referendum on July 5, 2015.

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Germany's social-affairs minister, Ursula von der Leyden, presents the "fourth poverty and wealth report," in March 2013. The issue of inequality is arousing public sentiment in Germany with this becoming an election issue along with the euro crisis and energy reform. The term Gerechtigkeit means "justice" in German and is associated with the idea of equality. The Social Democrats Party and the Greens talk about this in terms of "social scissors" opening wider. The Minder Initiative which passed in Switzerland enabling shareholders to restrict executive pay has led to public discussion in Germany for a similiar approach to be adopted by Germany. The ruling Christian Democratic Party (CDU) of Angela Merkel and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) party are different from other parties in Europe because of their Catholic and Lutheran roots which favor social solidarity. The FDP party in the ruling coalition supports free market principles but lacks popular support. The Economist cites the work of the German think tank DIW on inequality, which shows inequality showing sharp rise after German reunification around 1991, especially in East Germany. The situation moderates with improvements in inequality in East Germany and a slight improvement in West Germany after 2005. Both East and W. Germany have moved up overall in the Ginni coefficeint which measures inequality from about 0.4 in 1991 to about 0.5 in 2010, showing that the situation has stabilized at a higher level of inequality. Part of this could be because of the shift to temporary workers at lower wages about this time as German industry made efforts to keep wages down and improve competitiveness, even as overall conditions in the economy improved in the last decade. The Economist cites another study by the Initiative for a New Social Market Economy, a German think tank, which compares Germany with other members of the OECD. Germany ranks closer to Scandinavian countries in seventh place in this study, but does poorly in equal oportunities with 14th place. Germany lags behind other OECD and European countries in opportunities for women to work full time. Germany lacks enough daycare facilities for small children so that their mothers can work full time. There is a shortage of about 150,000 for preschool daycare openings in Germany, acccording to information cited by Deutsche Welle from government sources....

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The Partido Popular party wins the most votes but loses its parliamentary majority in most of the country's provinces. Ada Colau in Barcelona, and a retired judge Manuela Carmena in Madrid supported by a left wing party, Podemos, are likely to become the new mayors. Spain's ruling Partido Popular party faces national elections in November 2015.