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Azam Ahmedjan provides this insightful account of how the Taliban in 2015 has changed. It is no longer the old Taliban the U.S. faced following 9/11 attacks. The aging leadership in Patkistan no longer has the same level of control in Afghanistan. The older Taliban leadership inside Afghanistan has been killed in fighting with American led forces and drone strikes, leaving younger, less disciplined and fractured groups inside Afghanistan. This is the Taliban the American supported government faces. Most importantly the expectations of the Afghan people have changed. This makes it harder to negotiate a peace agreement with fractured Taliban groups on the ground. It also creates new opportunities for integrating Afghanistan into the fabric of South Asian society, as people in India and Pakistan are eager to see modernization, building of infrastructure, education, healthcare, and better standards of living after years of conflict.

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Brazil's Senate passes a 20 year spending cap to be reviewed every 10 years put forward by interim president Michel Temer. After years of increased spending and higher deficits, the action is intended to control government spending. It also means reversing some of the spending on healthcare and social programs of the Workers Party of Rousseff and Da Silva. After a long period of Workers party rule with higher spending, the drop in commodity prices and declining growth in China led to stalling growth in a commodities (metals and grain) dependent Brazilian economy. The spending cap passed the Senate 53 to 16. President Temer is  unpopular and seen as part of the same government and elite as Rousseff that led to the corruption scandals- recent polls show 63% of Brazilian people want him to resign and only 10% saying he is doing a good job. A Datafolha poll shows 60% oppose the spending cap. After the impeachment of president Rousseff in the corruption scandal, vice president Temer assumed the presidency till 2018. Brazil's Workers Party was popular during the da Silva years as it expanded spending on social programs- supported by a growing economy with commodities exports to China and high prices- only to see a slumping economy and falling popularity under successor Rousseff as the boom ended. In Argentina a similar process unfolded with higher spending on social programs and growing popularity during the Kirchner presidency- with commodities exports of grains to China- followed by declining popularity as the economy entered a difficult phase with a fall in the value of the peso, and the election of a new president Mauricio Macri.   ...

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This interview with Indian Health Minister, Harsh Vardhan, by Amitabh Bachchan and Anant Goenka of the Indian Express covers a range of questions including India's low fatality rate for coronavirus of 1: 46, its vaccination programs for polio, malaria and other diseases long before the pandemic for a population of 1.3 billion people, respect for healthcare workers, and the distribution of the new vaccines under development in India. Vardhan says there are of the 100 vaccines being developed 30 are in India,and of the ones nearing approval 5 are in India.  India makes 60% of the world's vaccines and its distribution capacity for such a large population has been proven many times. During this coronavirus months of preparation are going into reaching the whole population including remote parts in the mountainous areas. Vardhan says the plan is to vaccinate about 30 crores or 300 million people by June-July 2021 out of a total population of 135 crores or 1.35 billion. The vaccination will start with health care workers, moving on to essential service personnel in the military, police and other occupations, and to vulnerable parts of the population based on age and health conditions. Vardhan who is also the chair of the executive board of the WHO as India's representative, says the prime minister is personally holding two 3 hour long meetings to monitor the preparations for the vaccine and its distribution. Vardhan lists the achievements of the Modi administration and the quality of leadership provided by the prime minister- 2100 testing labs, 97% of the country having a testing facility within 3 kms, testing 1-1.5 million people each day, 1 million testing kits produced daily, 2 million beds in India with oxygen support or in ICU, 13,000 quarantine centers. By personally visiting the vaccine development facilities in Ahmedabad, Pune and Hyderabad, the prime minister also directly supported and encouraged scientists and their efforts. ...

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Biden's very conservative choices for his cabinet which one British reader of The Times calls UK One Nation type choices. Many of the cabinet members could easily have served under a Republican administration before Trump or a Democratic administration in the tradition of Harry Truman in the 1950's. No members of the cabinet belong to the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party.  A look at the Truman administration after 1950 shows John Wesley Snyder, who headed a bank in St Louis and worked for the Reconstruction Finance Corporation under Franklin Roosevelt performing a key role for integrating 8 million GI soldiers into the economy, and implementing the Marshall Plan. A similar job awaits another banking official Janet Yellen in Biden's cabinet to keep people employed during the pandemic. Xavier Becerra, currently attorney general of California, and formerly Congressman for 24 years, who endorsed "medicare for all" is the new Health Secretary. He grew up in a one room apartment with his Mexican parents. Secretary of State goes to Anthony Blinken, Dean Acheson was in this role under Truman as the Cold War surged with the Berlin crisis and the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe. Today the challenges from Russia and China are taking the shape of a revival of tensions. George Marshall who led American forces in the war, was secretary of defense. This position is given to a soldier Gen. Lloyd Austin who led forces in the wars in the Middle East. This has the potential to deliver better results after the years when America veered off course under the administrations of Reagan, Clinton, Bush and Obama, following the Truman, Eisenhower administrations that setup the recovery after World War II. Today after the banking crisis of 2009, disastrous healthcare and infrastructure neglect in the U.S., followed by the pandemic, a recovery like the one after World War II is needed.   ...

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Two law school professors at Fordham University, Kysar and Sugin, say the Republican tax bill is extreme because it was not based on working with Democrats. As a result not a single Democrat supported this tax legislation. The problem- when the Republicans lose their majority in Congress- a serious possibility after the loss in a Senate race in deep red state Alabama- the whole issue of tax legislation would come up again. This is not without precedent as the Democrats won the presidential election in 2008 and Republicans made a sweeping victory in Congress in 2010.This is why Senators Casey and Wyden (Democrats) and Orrin Hatch (Republican) head of the Finance Committee stated on the floor of the Senate on Dec. 19, 2017, that the next time and in future both parties need to engage in real discussion on taxes. The lack of serious discussion on the health care bill passed by Obama in 2008 has created some of the same problems today that this tax bill passed in a similar way without discussion with the other party is likely to face by 2019. No one needs to look further to realize that the political system is failing in its job of grappling and solving the nation's problems. Kysar and Sugin say this bill is like the 1981 tax cuts skewed towards high income Americans which failed to generate economic growth as intended an led to a swift reversal with tax increases in 1982 and years that followed in 1983, 1984. President Obama failed to address tax reform after appointing the Bowles Commission and not taking up its recommendations to reduce deductions. Another effort at changing the system was made without serious debate, a kind of Republican response to the way Democrats passed the Affordable Care healthcare bill in 2008. Real changes to update the tax laws may be put off till both parties can wrap their hands around the problem together. ...

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The NASDAQ index reached 5000 by April 2015, a level reached in the stock market boom in 2000. Yet investment strategists who were wary of the stock market in the period before the 2000-2002 collapse of the market see this market differently. The NASDAQ itself is not what it was in 2000, with the 2015 NASDAQ component stocks being different for the most part, and the healthcare and other sectors better represented in the index. Only three of the stocks in the top ten in 2000 are in the top ten today, including Microsoft. The S&P 500 trades in April 2015 at 18.5 times its company earnings for the past 12 months, compared to an historical average of 15.5, according to research firm Bespoke. A big part of the difference today is the investment climate of low inflation, which gives the U.S. Federal Reserve flexibility in raising rates. Low rates make bonds with lower yields less attractive, and increase the present value of future earnings. The yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury was 1.917% on April 25, 2015. In April 2000 it was 6%, and in mid 2007 it was 5.3% before the financial crisis in the two periods. James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management oversees $347 billion in fund investments. He also was wary of the U.S. stock market in 1999, yet he does not see the similiar kind of risks today, and sees a long term bullish trend. The scenario he envisages is more of a pause or temporary decline. Paulsen has shifted money to European markets, as U.S. stocks are becoming more expensive relative to their European counterparts, a strategy that is being followed by other money managers since 2014. Higher price volatility is seen in the markets in 2015, with the S&P 500 up 2.9% for the first four months of 2015, and the Dow up 1.4%. ...

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Pemex (Petroleos Mexicanos) CEO Emilio Lozoya is fired and replaced by Gonzalez Anaya, a close friend of finance minister Videgaray, as the company experiences a liquidity crisis by Jan. 2016. Anaya is known for cost cutting as head of Mexico's government healthcare institute. This report in the WSJ cites a Pemex official who says at one point in Jan 2016 Pemex was down to $8 million in cash. Under Lozoya Pemex failed to introduce financial discipline ahead of collapsing oil prices. Anaya is expected to cut spending by 19% or $5.8 billion. Mexico's governemt made a capital injection into Pemex of $4.2 billion to pay debts to suppliers, and offered tax relief of $2.8 billion. Pemex output is down to 2.2 million barrels a day in March 2016, decline of 4.5%. Pemex cuts will come in putting off exploraion spending of $800 million in one field in the Gulf of Mexico and paying less to rent oil platforms.

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The State Budget Crisis Task Force is co-chaired by former Fed chairman Paul Volcker and Richard Ravitch, a former lieutenant governor of New York. The Report of the Task Force says rising pension expenses and healthcare costs for public sector employees and Medicaid costs are severely reducing the ability of states in the U.S. to fund essential infrastructure improvements, education for low income students and other services. The report said there were six major threats to the fiscal situation of states- including Medicaid spending, underfunding of retirement, "budgetary gimmicks" to address the short term needs, and uncertain tax revenues. Ravitch told a news conderence: "It will be a hell of a lot more expensive to deal with theses problems in five or ten years than to deal with them now." The report focussed on California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Virginia and Texas. It was funded by the foundation of Blackstone Group co-founder Peter Peterson, and George Soros's Open Society Foundation....

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Fewer than 2% of Pakistanis pay income taxes and some of the powerful landed elite and industrialists pay little or no income taxes. The result is that the government is short of funds to finance needed healthcare and education. This leaves more of these tasks for the mosques and international donors such as the Saudis, and with it brings support for militant groups. Pakistan is dependent on IMF help for its financing needs and the IMF has offered $11 billion in loans. $7.6 billion of this was transferred. But further loans were held back by the IMF since May 2010 till Pakistan made economic reforms in taxation and other areas such as energy subsidies. The US supports this effort. The government's recent effort to raise fuel prices puts the burden on the poorer sections of society. The result was deeply unpopular and the government was forced to withdraw the price increases. This was the only way to maintain the support of coalition parties in the government

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Leonhardt points out that public workers receive lower salaries and higher benefits than private workers. They are being paid in the wrong ways. For example with health insurance coverage that require little or no co-payment, which lead to overuse of healthcare services that don't necessarily improve health. Politicians and unions appear to have accepted this practice over the years. Public sector unions have blocked efforts to improve efficiency and find better ways of doing things from the classroom to work in government offices. Reforms in states such as Indiana have produced some results. But even these improvements do not address the magnitude of the problems facing the U.S. which stem from the public's desire to have it all- from large defense spending, public services, low taxes and no changes to Social Security and Medicare. Polls show Americans want to reduce deficit spending, but the same polls show Americans unwilling to make some difficult choices.

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Experts say Chief Justice Roberts somehow found a path through in bridging the ideological divide and avoiding a show of partisanship in an election year. He somehow navigated and found a path through in his vote on the U.S. healthcare law letting it stand. Early on Roberts advocated "judicial modesty and humility" in jurisprudence. He compared the judge's role to that of an umpire in baseball during the 2005 confirmation hearings. The umpire would not pitch or bat, his job would be to call balls and strikes. It was seen as a determmined show of independence at a time when Justice Kennedy was seen as the swing vote. He has also earned political capital to be able to vote independently on other issues before the court instead of becoming embroiled in controversy about the role of the Court in overturning the work of Congress during the early part of the Obama administration.

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Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah sign a powersharing agreement brokered by the U.S Secretary of State Kerry and president Karzai after Afghanistan elections in 2014. The question is whether the two can set aside their differences and make it work, and can they negotiate some form of peace agreement with the Taliban to give Afghanistan and the region years of peace after so much conflict. Pakistan and India's elites and military need to step up to the plate to set aside differences by looking to the long term future of the region and the aspirations of the people for better infrastructure, services, education and healthcare, so long denied to the region. The Kashmir floods, and the floods in Pakistan before that, recent elections in India and Pakistan showing the clear aspirations for development of the people, are a reminder of so much that remains to be done and so much that was never done.

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France's finance minister says the government will focus on growth and set deficit targets that will support growth. There is a feeling in the business community that France has reached the limit for tax increases. The government has given up the goal of reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013. The government says the deficit will be about 4.1% in 2013 and 3.6% in 2014. Economic growth is expected to be only about 0.1% for 2013, and 0.9% for 2014, lower than earlier forecasts. Muscovici has said the French are fed up with higher taxes, and he is looking for savings in spending. About 15 billion euros of savings are planned in the 2014 budget from ministry expenses and healthcare spending. Extra taxes of 6 billion euros planned for the 2014 budget will now be cut to 3 billion euros. To increase growth it is necessary to stabilize taxation and give business a clear picture for 2014-2015.

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Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, Greece's second largest party, is interviewed by WSJ's Bret Stephens. Tsipras describes the problems inside Greece. He describes the bribery in healthcare, tax evasion, burden of taxes on the middle class and honest citizens, a large and inefficient bureaucracy. In its current state Greece would build up debt and deficits all over again if the debts were forgiven tomorrow, says Tsipras. He is for Greece remaining in the eurozone. Tsipras understands the problems Germans have with putting money into Greece with the current state of economic management and lack of conscience of its elite, and why they see this as not fair. He suggests as a model for solving the Greece debt crisis, the London Conference of 1953 forgiving half of Germany's debts and putting the rest on a 30 year scheduled repayment. This would have to come with results in cutting bureaucracy, reducing corruption, and efficient tax collection for Greece democracy to work.

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Saudi Arabia which was seeing GDP growth of 4% a year is slowing and should see GDP growth at 2% in 2009. Overall Saudis are in much better shape than their cousins in the United Arab Emirates like Dubai and Abu Dhabi. THis is because the Saudi banking system followed conservative practices and parked its $500 billion in foreign assets in US and European government bonds. Saudis can use these funds to increase infrastructure, education and healthcare spending by an estimated 10% this year to about $150 billion. At the samt time the Saudis will have to pull back from the $600 billion of megaprojects that were planned and will have to put more government money in projects that do go ahead. There is likely to be a hold on the projects to build a number of new cities in remote parts of the country. Some like the King Abdullah Economic City planned for the Red Sea coast may get the go ahead.

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About 4.2 million Americans will be 65 years old in 2024, and for the next six years about 4 million will be added to the 65 plus population each year making the 2030 population of 65 plus larger by about 24 million people. As America ages it will need more young people to do many jobs in healthcare, care for the elderly, in agriculture and transport. This is what we are seeing in Japan and even a country highly protective of its own culture has a policy of admitting immigrants from Vietnam and other countries to meet worker shortages. Claire Ansberry looks at the 65 plus population today and compares it to 35 years ago and finds it is more oriented to exercise, health, and has more accumulated wealth. About 20% of people over 65 years work today compared to 15% 35 years ago, says Pew Research, and of these working 65 year olds two thirds are working full time compared to half in 1987. They are wealthier having median net worth of $410,000 today compared to $282,000 in 2010 much of the 45% gain made in the last 2 years from rising house prices and stock investments. Those over 75 years have a 13% gain. Overall the wealth is significantly higher today. ...

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Harris tells a rally in Atlanta that abortion bans pay no attention to maternal health. "One in three women in America lives in a state with a Trump abortion ban. This includes Georgia and every state in the south except Virginia. Think about that, when you also combine that with what we know has been longstanding neglect around an issue like maternal mortality. Think about that, when you compound that with what has been longstanding neglect of women in communities with a lack of the adequate resources they need for healthcare, prenatal, during their pregnancy, postpartum. Think about that, and these hypocrites want to start talking about this is in the best interest of women and children?" Harris points out that some states have prison for life or ten year sentences for doctors and nurses, under their abortion bans. “We all know how we got here. When Donald Trump was president, he hand-selected three members of the United States supreme court, the court of Thurgood and RBG, with the intention that they would overturn the protections of Roe v Wade."                   ...

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The Chinese market for medical care is growing. China will spend $125 billion on a three year plan to boost medical care. This means funding 31,000 new hospitals by 2012. Medical equipment market is estimated to grow at 13.5% a year to $15.5 billion in 2012, according to Philips Electronics. And Credit Suisse sees the pharma market up from $44 billion in 2008 to $110 billion in 2015. GE is designing inexpensive imaging equipment for fast growing rural markets, with cost at 10% of urban markets.

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Steingart, senior correspondent of Der Spiegel, on the cost of a German style pension and healthcare system.

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This columnist opinion in Le Monde reflects the view in Europe that the US is in retreat, and in some quarters such as NYT that the new US foreign policy that sets the Monroe Doctrine as key aspect of foreign policy is a retreat- US setting the rules in the Western Hemisphere around democracy and governance. It says the US has set aside the ambition first proclaimed in 1945 and revived in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union. US administrations under Clinton and Bush took this posture after 1991 of dominant position but it did not reflect reality. US like Russia was dragged into many remote conflicts that had little to do with the standard of living, and economic advancement of the US. The US has a dilapidated infrastructure, broken healthcare system, and operates in a world trading system that has deindustrialized the nation and shipped out jobs and factories for 20 years, and worse is exposed to drug and people trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela. The Monroe Doctrine 1823 asserted the US right to keep European colonial powers out of America, and it was possible only because the British also supported it in the 19th century till the US built up its Navy under TR and FDR. With Russia recognized as a European power the US is able to get its support for the US to tackle the situation in the Western hemisphere presented by drug and people trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela. Tariffs are intended to get a new world trading system with new rules. Infrastructure building is underway on a scale that will far surpass China by 2030. This is not a retreat but an advancement for the Nation and the American people after three decades of failed policy. It lets the European powers Germany, France and Britain deal with Russia's requirement that NATO withdraw from its borders and recognition of Russia as a Northern European power. European history has shown that since 1700 that when faced with a majority of nations in Europe any dominant power in Europe is forced to negotiate a peaceful resolution of conflict because of it's limited resources to carry on a conflict. This should lead to a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, that allows rebuilding, and also gives the US an opportunity to rebuild its economy and standard of living for the American people. This will be a win-win for both the Russians and the Western Europeans, and both Latin America and the US, China and the US, India/Japan/Brazil and the US. ...

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Counseling sessions for healthcare workers in Growing Forward program at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago. Hospital chaplain Mark Schimmelpfennig, also an army veteran, brings techniques helping troops deal with combat trauma to healthcare setting after he hears nurses using language in conversation that sounded like what he had heard in combat zones. Nurses still talk about how they have feelings of guilt- not knowing how to treat desperate patients, worrying about bringing covid-19 home to families. Nurse Arbie Karasek says the chaplain ("Chaps") was super valuable at a time when nurses are so tired, it actually brought her to tears realizing that all the time they were like troops in a combat zone, exhausted at the end of the day, sore all over from physical exertion.

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McNeil unit of J&J fails to provide information on the actual number of bottles involved in the recall of its products. Different practice of P&G is cited for a recall of its Scope product- the size of the recall being 35,000 bottles.

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Brazil held the Olympics and the World Soccer Cup, building new stadiums and living off the boom in oil and metals prices under previous governments. Today not only is there a lack of funding for infrastructure, healthcare, education and transportation.   This is now leading to lack of investment in healthcare services in a shocking way. The first full blown epidemic of yellow fever is hitting Brazil's cities of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Officials fear that it will spread in an area that has 23 million people if it hits the slums where A.aegyoti mosquitoes are to be found in swarms. Rio and Sao Paulo are trying to tackle it by vaccinating 23 million people. Yellow fever kills about 3-8% of people affected. The economic crisis with lack of funds, and the political crisis that has affected Brazil with corruption scandals has led to a delayed response, according to experts at UCLA infectious disease center.  The disease is traced to loggers and monkeys in the Amazon region which usually remains contained in that region. SInce 2016 the lack of a strong official response has led to the crisis where monkeys carry it a mile a day all the way south to the Rio and Sao Paulo region. A effective government response would have included the use of media to educate people on the need for vaccination for all except newborns and pregnant mothers. Instead social media Facebook and You Tube spread the idea that the vaccination was dangerous, anti vaccine persons who normally got no audience trashed the vaccine. So that today public health authorites have to deal with this problem. The vaccination is highly effective and invented in the 1930's, was not started till November 2016, even though the spread southward from the Amazon region started in 2016. In fact says Dr Marquez, an expert at the University of Pittsburgh, only one in 100,000 gets a reaction and one in a million dies. He says compared to this 6% of 30 million people in the region affected could lose their lives, or  2 million deaths. ...

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The tech boom bust since 2000 that has hurt America and Europe and which also laid the foundations for the loss of manufacturing and technology to China, ceding American leadership and critical advantage, is shown here in the WSJ. The role of the finance sector  is explained here. That has added one more factor to the factor of endless wars in the Middle East, where American and European investment in healthcare, education and new infrastructure was somehow diverted away, and much of America's and Europe's resources wasted- or not turned to the benefit of the people of America or Europe.  One financial firm that rode the tech boom to the hilt finds itself with unacceptable losses except in a severe recession. Tiger Global Management was using tens of billions of dollars from pensions, endowments and rich clients riding on some of Silicon Valley's hottest stocks.  With the plunge in tech stock values including startups in which Tiger pushed into aggressively now facing large losses after hyper valuations, Tiger's hedge fund which managed $23 billion at the end of 2021 was down 52% in 2022. Another of its funds that managed $11 billion has lost 62%. WSJ says this wiped out two thirds of the gains Tiger has made in the tech stocks since its founding. In addition large writedowns are expected on its venture funds valued at $64 billion at the end of 2021, says WSJ.  WSJ says cheap money (money somehow diverted from infrastructure and funding manufacturing in China instead of the US now goes by the misnomer cheap money) reshaped Silicon Valley in the last decade, as pension funds, rich investors and celebrities turned to well connected money managers such as Tiger to put money in tech stocks and startups. This WSJ report says compared to Sequoia Capital and an earlier generation of venture companies Tiger Global is simply not interested in management of companies it invests in, taking a broad brush approach, using Bain Capital for research, and trying to haul in a large load of fish like trawlers at sea hoping for some companies to make big gains. Many pension funds such as Calpers California's public pension fund invest in Tiger with a $400 million investment. WSJ also reports that Tiger Global's venture funds do not reflect the realities of the tech business as venture stocks will reflect the drop over 2022 and 2023, including its ByteDance Chinese tech investment which will need larger writedowns. Tiger has also not hesitated to get into cryptocurrency which has loss of about $1.5 trillion dollars. It is of interest to note that Julian Robertson, hedge fund manager of the 2000 period (when Clinton-Bush were US presidents) who ran Tiger Management provided the impetus for Mr. Coleman, then 25 years old, for the start of Tiger Global. Julian Robertson closed his fund in 2000 during the dot com bust. Coleman hired a Blackstone analyst and started on the next cycle of tech with social media platform Facebook now Meta, followed by China's JD.com as investments in a new China boom were started. The end result is that during a period of Middle East wars under Bush and Obama, and building dependence on Russian oil and gas supplies under Schroeder and Merkel, China was the gainer as the US and EU lost much of its manufacturing and technology to China. During this period US and Europe neglected investment in infrastructure that would benefit the people of America in ease of living and quality of life. Just as money was wasted in wars much of the tech investment was wasted. The companies that added value over time were started long before and relied on sales growth and new products that revolutionized their field such as Apple with smartphones that started well before the nineteen eighties, Amazon with logistics and its own style of management, Microsoft from an even earlier era. Tech monopolies Facebook, Google, and others would not be missed much in terms of real progress for the people of America. The cost is many decades of ceding manufacturing and technology advantage to China by US and the EU led by Germany. China 2030 and the war in Ukraine with China's support have shown how fragile the foundations have been with weak political leadership and a finance sector running backwards in terms of America's and Europe's strengths in new infrastructure, better healthcare, services and education for the people of America and Europe. Leaving it to the Biden administration and a new coalition of Greens and Scholz in Germany to begin the task of rebuilding America and Europe on strong foundations, including the dignity of the workers and families, that makes who we are and what we believe in, and why the free world believes in us. ...