LyrArc Article Gist
Unemployment in the eurozone drops to 7.7% in 2017. Unemployment in Spain drops to 17%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The UK's Office of National Statistics said construction output fell by 3.7% in the first quarter of 2012, compared to prior year. Output fell 3%. The revised decline in GDP for the first quarter is 0.3%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The German government has taken notice of hate speech on social media and social bots. The Justice Ministry convened a task force on hate speech on internet. Justice Minister Heiko Maas promised legal action against social media like facebook and twitter if it violated laws of libel and inciting to violence. Chancellor Merkel is bringing in a data science expert Professor Simon Hegelich of the Technical University of Berlin for consultations in Dec. 2016. Only AfD of the main parties, with its anti-immigration stance, has not come out in favor of not using social bots or paid trolls in the 2017 elections. Hegelich in talk with DW.com says it is hard to legislate on this because the whole phenomenon has not been fully understood. Article 5 of the Constitution provides for free speech. Hegelich also says the state of technology moves faster than legislation, and being international sites like facebook, twitter and others pose additional issues. He does not say laws cannot be helpful but that its not clear how best to do this. Thomas Jarzombek is a CDU member of parliament and digital media expert. He says social bots are more likely controlled by foreign countries, and fake news sites are more of a domestic problem. Making this worse is the incentive for unemployed journalists to do blogging of the crude and aggressive type to make more money. Jarzombek sees the need for the press to do more in its role for the democratic process to function properly, by functioning in the role of "enlightenment" and "awareness."  Jenna Behrends, a law student and CDU local politician for Berlin-Mitte, says it is necessary for good bots to be used to fight bad bots, in an article in Der Spiegel. Major mainstream media would then have to launch social bots themselves to fulfill their role of providing the public with correct and fair information free of excessive bias and distortion of the bad bots. One example of this is shown explicitly here of German chancellor Merkel's picture with the words " Guilty of betraying the people," with links to "Drain the swamp," and "Brexit." A more complex question is one of how to let people vent out frustration about the mainstream media itself being biased in favor of the established views and not doing enough or giving enough space to reflect alternative views, so that these can be debated without inflammatory language and deliberate distortion. A whole range of tools and modifications of behaviour may be necessary ahead of next years elections in France and Germany, now that the phenomenon is better understood following a vote in the Anglo-Saxon countries.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Biden calls ending the war in Afghnistan a "wise decision" for the American people. He says in his foreign policy speech that "it is about ending an era of major military operations to remake other countries." A Pew Research poll shows 54% of American adults support the decision.  In a sense the decision had already been made. Biden cited the Doha agreement president Trump signed a year ago with Taliban that called for the release of 5000 Taliban prisoners which included most of the top commanders, and no agreement on the future of Afghanistan. The decision had come much earlier than that when the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan from the period of George Bush were rejected by the American people for the cost and lack of purpose during the presidential election of 2016. That period marked the rejection of policies set under Reagan, Bush and Obama for starting American involvement in the Iraq-Iran conflict first on one side and then on the other side. All the time precious resources that were needed for infrastructure and services in education and healthcare were diverted to these wars, impoverishing America and also Europe. Looking beyond the words thrown around for political advantage both Trump and Biden and the American people, had decided to put these wars behind them 5-10 years earlier. Biden said assertively that America had made a tragic wrong turn, that was all he could say about Reagan, Bush, Obama policy. In the meantime he stated something else was happening- the US was losing its position in the world by wasting its resources in these wars that do not serve the interests of America. "There is nothing China and Russia would want more in this competition than the US to be bogged down for another ten years in these wars."  Biden was saying that he had the courage and tenacity to make a decision that was the right one and a wise one for America against all the transient opinion of people who lacked a grasp of what was happening to the American people- the increasing impoverishing of America in both rural and urban areas. And a similar situation in Europe. It was time to take a new turn, close this chapter, and write a new one in American history, brighter and with new sense of hope. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In Brazil's 2018 elections most candidates talk about shoring up crumbling infrastructure, and law and order. Yet no one talks about the budget crisis as there is no money left for doing this.  Shocking as this may sound after years of overspending and a recession, Brazil now uses borrowed money to pay pensions and salaries, and keep schools and hospitals open. Brazil's public spending exceeds revenue by about 7% of annual economic output. Taxes are already 40% of economic output, according to CIA's World Factbook website, making it hard to raise taxes.  This WSJ analysis says you cannot overstate the problem in Brazil as about two thirds of the budget goes to paying old age pensions, payroll of public sector and public healthcare. By 2020 these liablilities will grow to the point there is nothing left for discretionary spending such as roads, infrastructure, new hospitals, police equipment. Trimming pensions and freezing wages are likely options to tackle the problem. Still this leaves Brazil with the prospect of a lost decade.   Neighboring Argentina is experiencing a contracting economy and had to turn to the IMF for assistance.  The decline in GDP comes as a new conservative administration took over promising an improvement in the economy. The peso declined by 18% in 2018 so far leaving Argentina's public and private debt of $166 billion which is 80% denominated in U.S. dollars much harder to pay off. The stronger dollar has hurt Argentina leading to a $50 billion support agreement with the IMF.  Much of Latin America is now in an economic crisis. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Immigration and drug flows became an explosive issue in the US by 2016, yet between 2016-2024 Venezuelan people outflows added up to 7.1 million migrants including about 1 million to the US, as Venezuela collapsed and Russia intervened to keep the regime.   None of this could have happened with major powers US Russian cooperation. The Monroe Doctrine of president Monroe, 1824, warned European powers to not restore colonial influence in the Americas. By 2024 Syria sent 14 million of its population to Europe, and Venezuela sent 7.7 million migrants to Colombia, Brazil, and the US, as their economies and democratic institutions collapsed. Missing was working cooperation with another military power Russia. Clinton, Bush, Obama, Western financial interests, failed to grasp the importance of US Russia cooperation and mutual respect. Obama denigrated Russia as insignificant because of its GDP.   Russia intervened in failing states but gained little, straining the good relations mutual respect from earlier periods of its history and interactions with the US.  DJT tariff on all importers of Venezuelan oil affect China to which Venezuela sent 55% of its oil exports over half a million barrels a day. It also affects India and other importers. These importers say experts, will shift to Russian crude preferring it to heavy oil from Venezuela. This is a sore point for Americans affected by violent crime from Venezuelan gang members reflected in recent election results. This also affects the sense of safety in American neighborhoods and in towns across America. The Linken Riley Act was passed in the US Congress as action on this issue. People in China, India, and in Europe, and some even in Silicon Valley in the US fail to grasp the way this has affected communities across the US when after decades of deindustrialization and shipping jobs overseas by American business, these communities are affected by a sense of lack of safety in their neighborhoods. There is also a failure to grasp the harm done by migration of 7.7 million people from Venezuela, almost a fourth of the country's population, because of mismanagement of the economy and crippling inflation, and the failure of democratic institutions to function effectively. A failure to grasp the extent of the economic and human disaster in Venezuela. DJT says- "Venezuela has been very hostile to the US and the Freedoms which we espouse...Venezuela has "purposefully and deceitfully sent to the United States, undercover, tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals".    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Alexander Van Der Bellen, a pro Europe independent candidate supported by the Green Party wins Austria's presidential election with 53.3% of the vote. The anti immigrant Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer wins 46% of the vote. Van Der Bellen is for an open Europe and is pro Europe. The election is seen in Germany as "lifting a great burden off of our shoulders," in the words of Sigmar Gabriel. This is important for the future of Europe as France, Netherlands and Germany face major elections in 2017.

LyrArc Article Gist
Baucus is a six term senator from Montana. He won easy re-election in the fall. Question are being raised about the extent of fundraising Baucus is doing even as he is conducting the negotiations for writing up the health care reform bill. He continues to accept donations from health care executives and health care companies. Public Citizen advocacy group says that Baucus's fundraising in the middle of the health care debate is very troubling. As chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Baucus is a key person in the health care legislation development.The Washington Post says health care companies gave Baucus $1.5 million in 2007 and 2008 as he began to hold hearings for the health care reform debate. The health care industry gave $170 million to federal lawmakers in 2007 and 2008, with 54% going to Democrats, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Senator Grassley of Iowa, the ranking Republican in Baucus's committee received more than $2 million from the health care industry since 2003. House Ways and Means Committee chairman Rangel took in $1.6 million, and ranking Republican Dave Camp $1 million. Clearly any new health care legislation will fall short on achieving the critical reduction in health care costs that is needed to help the U.S. economy as long as lawmakers are beholden to lobbyists and donations....

LyrArc Article Gist
Since 2002 when the AKP came to power consumer loans have surged from 2 billion Turkish lira to 129 billion lira or $81.55 billion. While this has created a larger middle class, the huge expansion of credit puts the economy at risk say analysts. Turkey is taking in imports at a rapid rate and the current account deficit is now 8.1% of GDP. The ratio of the current aaccount deficit to foreign exchange transactions is at 37%, according to Ankara based economic research foundation Tepav. This is significantly above the level reached before Turkey's last four economic crashes. The EU is Turkey's biggest market for exports, and the fastest growing market is the Middle East. With the economic growth sluggish in both regions the prospects for Turkish exports increasing is weak. Signs of excess are visible in Istanbul. A shopping mall for cars is being built the size of three sports stadiums with a test track on the roof called Autopia. Prime minister Erdogan talks about building a huge new shipping canal that would bypass the crowded shipping in the Bosporus. And the elections are being fought for the AKP to get more than 330 seats out of 550 in parliament, which would enable the AKP to change the constitution. This will be an unneeded distraction for the country at a time when economic policy needs a sharp focus to reduce the current account deficit before it is too late....

LyrArc Article Gist
What is the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and what does it mean for the US in the current protests? The Muslim Brotherhood was started in Egypt in 1928, in the colonial days, by an imam and schoolteacher named Hassan al-Banna. The intent was to act as a grassroots organization to promote the reform of Egyptian society through a greater adherence to Islam, by preaching and social services. Scott Shane talks with Reidel of the Brookings Institution and Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Quatar Center about the Brotherhood and Israel. Reidel was the Egypt desk officer at the CIA when Mubarak came to power in 1981, and is an experienced observer of the Muslim world at Brookings. Reidel says if we want democracy in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is going to be a big part of this, and we should be engaging and talking to them now. Hamid responds to a question about terrorism by pointing out that the Al Quaeda hates the Brotherhood and the Brotherhood hates Al Quaeda, that for counterterrorism engaging with the Brotherhood would be helpful to the US. On Israel, Hamid says years of accomodation to the real world has brought a knowledge that the Brotherhood has to live in the real world and the geopolitics of the Middle East. Carrie Wickham, a political scientist at Emory University, is author of "Mobilizing Islam," a 2002 book on Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood. Carrie says it was analogous to evangelical Christians and their goal of sharing the word of God, but Banna also referred to Jihad as a struggle against colonialism and Zionism. Some leaders such as Sayyid Qutb, who was imprisoned by the Egyptian government and executed in 1966, advocated violent jihad, but after the 1970's the Brotherhoods formally renounced violence as a means of achieving power. In 1984 the Brotherhood reached another point in its evolution when it competed in parliamentary elections. And estimates of its actual support begin at about 20% of the electorate. Another development is the relative youthfulness of the April 6th and other movements in Egypt, where two thirds of the people are under 30 years age. The Muslim Brotherhood leaders are much older and hesitated to join the popular movement in its early stages. On the question of the Brotherhood's future evolution and winning a large role in a future government, Carrie says that a system of checks and balances has to be established to ensure that the Brotherhood operates as a democratic party committed to the democratic process. The Wall Street Journal in an editorial on February 4, 2011, emphasizes the need for institutional checks and balances. Carrie says rewriting the constitution and electoral process to ensure that this happens and no one party can take abslute control is crucial. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Anne Applebaum of the Washington Post points out that after the faltering campaign of Republican Party nominee Fillon, the only serious candidates remaining in the presidential election in France are Marie LePen of the National Front, and the former Economy minister in the Hollande government, Emmanuel Macron. Macron is now the only person with enough popularity to win over LePen's nationalist movement. Macron launched his En Marche movement in 2016 and his strategy is to bring together the centre right and the centre left moderate voters, and voters who favor remaining in the European Union. Older voters in France unlike that in the U.S. and the UK are favoring candidates other than LePen because they fear the impact on the French economy and their pensions from leaving the European Union. LePen favors holding a referendum to decide whether France should remain in the EU. Macron takes an opposite view fully supporting France's role in the European Union. He has not advocated the huge cuts that Fillon has for job cuts in the public sector, and is able to draw moderate centre left voters to his side. A look at the French presidential election in another piece in the Economist magazine shows that further out one goes from major cities in France there is a surge in the support for the National Front. Moderate parties other than the National Front draw support in most of the major cities and urban areas. Another similarity with the UK and U.S> is that more educated voters support moderate parties other than the National Front. As polls have been proven wrong in other elections it is difficult to know what is likely to happen in this election. Unemployment is high in France at 10% with little change since the election of the Socialist Hollande government. Other issues such as terrorism have unsettled French voters, making this election difficult to predict. Voter dissatisfaction is especially high among younger voters who face a high unemployment rate and stagnant economy. Neither candidate Macron or LePen offers a way out of the low economic growth and lack of new jobs. A lot depends on whether French voters are willing to take the risks of a LePen administration and the further uncertainty from a referendum for leaving the EU which cannot enhance the economic prospects of France.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
GDP expanded at 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Turkey Statistics Office. This follows a contraction by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016. For the full year the GDP growth is 2.9 percent, a decline from the 6.1% in 2015. In 2015 Turkey gained from lower oil prices. This was offset in 2016 by the politics in the region- the increased instability in the country following a crackdown on the opposition and media, internal conflict in the Kurdish region which appeared for a time to be leading to peaceful settlement. As a result tourism revenues declined by 30% and this was offset by increased government spending. The uncertainty before the referendum also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

LyrArc Article Gist
This leader in The Economist reviews an essay in the magazine's October 8-14th, 2016 edition by U.S. president Obama. In it Obama points to the unfinished tasks of his presidency and what comes next as tasks to be done for the U.S. economy. The Economist points out the problems in the 2016 election campaign where there is a lack of discussion of economic issues as a serious problem. Obama lists as priorities efforts to improve conditions of people left out in the recovery, reducing inequality, offering more job opportunities, and increasing productivity.

LyrArc Article Gist
Sofia Diego from the Southern European region of Spain and Portugal, says the idea of a multi-speed European Union as put forward by some in Brussels, including Jean-Claude Juncker, is not the answer- because at some point it makes the whole exercize of a united Europe futile with some countries choosing to ignore the very ideal of European unity. In fact she says we have come too far in that direction and it is necessary to pause and reflect what this means. France's leading presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron has called for a closer union as a better solution to eurozone financial stability with a tighter union. German public opinion and other opinion in the EU does not favor more concessions following Brexit. This opinion from a Southern European country shows how young people especially have developed a new attitude and feeling of togetherness as the European generation. Young people from all parts of Europe have a changed attitude compared to previous generation, and this is a valuable experience that needs to be nurtured with closer interaction to take the EU experiment to the next stage. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Political activism and grassroots efforts- other than street protests - are increasing in eurozone countries facing high unemployment and austerity cuts. The focus is on cleaning up the political system rife with cronyism, corruption and wasteful spending. Brat and Bjork describe one such effort in the town of Torrelodones, Spain, 18 miles from Madrid. Criminal investigations in many Spanish cities have increased public awareness and participation in local government. European Social Survey based in London, reports political activity of this kind in Spain jumped from 27% in 2008 to 39% in 2010. There is an increasing sense that the political elites of the two main parties, the Partido Popular and the Socialists have failed to bring clean government and transparency to Spain. As a result progressives are joining conservatives in an effort to clean up years of wasteful spending, cronyism and corruption in government. The Union for Progress and Democracy, representing an alliance of such groups would win 13% of the vote in a national election, and the ruling conservative Partido Popular would lose half of its support and get only 22.5%, according to independent Spanish polling firm Metroscopia. The new push for transparency is one of the welcome changes at a time of austerity cuts and 27% unemployment in Spain. Many of the perks of public officials such as chaeuffer driven cars and police escorts, contracts for favored few at higher prices, are out in many cities, and accounts made public for scrutiny and change. Transparency International's transparency index shows 33 out of 110 of Spain's biggest cities scoring top grades on the 2012 index, jumping from only one. Following the example of the regional government in Navarra, the central government is drafting the first open-records law. Castilla-La Mancha, the area around Toledo, run by a clean government advocate Maria Dolores de Cospedal from the Partido Popular has taken aggressive steps to clean up the local government and wasteful spending- see the link to Castilla La Mancha. Her long term approach is to clean up government spending and accounts with the idea of preserving spending where it is most needed, in education, healthcare and vital services hit by cuts, an approach being taken in other Spanish cities. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Immigration, welfare and membership in the E.U. emerge as issues in Britain's 2015 election, making it harder for the Conservative party under Cameron to get a majority. Polls show Labor running neck and neck with the Conservative party at 36%, and UKIP at 12%, the Greens at 5%. The Conservatives introduced proposals to make it difficult for E.U. citizens to get welfare payments, but this is seen as not enough action. E.U. rules allow free movement making it harder to curb immigration. Prime minister Cameron has higher personal popularity than Ed Milliband, and is campaigning on the theme of having set Britain on the right path to economic recovery after spending by Labor had increased the national debt.

LyrArc Article Gist
Thailand's military rulers decide to impeach former prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, for use of state funds for her large rice subsidy program. Thailand remains divided between provincial leaders and farmers in the north of the country and the Bangkok regions. The army stepped in in 2014 and has called for Shinawatra to be banned from politics for 5 years. Economic growth was affected in 2014 by slowing growth in China. The protests against Shinawatra also reduced economic activity. Economic growth is now almost zero.

LyrArc Article Gist
Karl Rove, advisor to President George W. Bush, and organizer behind American Crossroads political action committee, says the election will be decided by the higher support for Romney among independents and the high turnout of Republican voters. The prediction for the voter turnout among Republicans is 36% Republican vs. 35% Democratic, according to Gallup. This compares with the 39% Republican and 37% Democratic in 2004, and 39% Democratic 29% Republican in 2008. The early and absente ballot voting advantage has significantly gone down almost by half for Democrats as more Republicans cast early votes in swing states like Ohio. Closing statements and crowds also appear to confirm this trend. Rove sees this as 51% to 48% favoring the Republicans. The addition of swing states - Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania also appears to suggest that a broader movement is underway that is happening right now in the final week before the election on Nov. 6, 2012. Rove focusses on the numbers. A behavioural assessment shows the importance in this campaign of the centrist position adopted by Romney in the closing months of the campaign; the selection of Ryan which gave Romney support from the Republican conservative base so that he could talk freely about his record in the liberal state of Massachusetts to independent voters and women, and most important the clear message to voters focussed on a five point plan to get the economy recovery were critical in shaping these numbers....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Republican party (GOP) chances with Trump as the candidate in 2024 are seen with much skepticism by Karl Rove in the WSJ. Republicans need to keep the presidential field of candidates not too crowded for too long, as pluralities in primaries led to Trump winning a large share of delegates even with about one third of the vote in the early primaries for the 2020 election. Another challenge is the work of Trump supporting leaders in states such as Michigan who want to select delegates by convention and not through primaries. Ron de Santis, Governor of Florida, is seeking the Republican nomination, and faces a strong challenge from the former president. De Santis, 44 years, is from Dunedin, Florida, His mother was a nurse and his father installed Nielsen TV rating boxes, with great-great grandparents immigrating from Italy Benevento, Avellino) in 1904. He studied history at Yale and went to Harvard Law School, Navy Justice School after joining the Navy. De Santis was elected to the US Congress in 2014 and 2016 where he served as the chariman of the sub committee on National Security. He founded the Freedom Caucus in these years. In 2018 he ran for Governor of Florida winning by 0.4%, running again in 2022 he won by about 20 percentage points. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Italy's budget deficit was brought down to 3% of GDP in 2012 under Mario Monti's government. The cost of austerity measures is a expected economic contraction of 1.8% in 2013, according to OECD and Moody's forecasts. There is intense opposition in Italy to the 4 billion euro property tax. The right wing parties under Berlusconi have called for this tax to be cancelled and reimbursing of 2012 payments. Italy's 2013 budget also assumes a one percentage point increase in the value added tax rate, a 4 billion euro additional tax. The new prime minister of a technocratic government, Enrico Letta, faces a delicate balancing act to keep the coalition of the right and left parties together, and still keep the confidence of the EU that Italy will control its deficit. The OECD expects the deficit to grow by half a percentage point in 2013-2014 as steps are taken to promote economc growth.