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The Guardian Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
In his State of the Union Address president Biden set the tone for the next 2 years of his term, and in preparation for another term to Build Back Better for America. He talked about his efforts to address the needs of America in rebuilding aging infrastructure, restoring its place in manufacturing, chips and science, and addressing climate change with trillions of dollars of investments. No longer would crowding out of government investment happen as it did in the last two decades with neglect of infrastructure, manufacturing, workers and families, and massive misallocation of capital in capital markets. On Jobs, America and Renewal, "on rewarding work, not wealth" "Jobs are coming back. Pride is coming back because of the choices we made in the last two years. This is a blue collar blueprint to rebuild America and make a real difference in your lives." He told Congressman McCarthy-          "I don't want to ruin your reputation but I look forward to working with you." Reminding Republicans-  "The people sent us a clear message. Fighting for the sake of fighting, power for the sake of power, conflict for the sake of conflict gets us nowhere." ...

Not More of the Same

New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
John Taylor, says Obama and Alan Krueger (Obama's new head of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisors), said some of the same things in early September, 2011, that were part of Obama's old plan to revive the U.S. economy. And the old plan has failed to produce results. The part that puts construction crews to work on the roads, railways and airports was tried earlier in the stimulus plan. Because of a lack of showel ready projects, and the state governments putting most of the money in their state coffers, this only increased infrastructure by a miniscule 0.05 percent of GDP, according to research by Taylor and John Cogan. Taylor's sees the moves by the Obama administration and the Bernanke Fed as not only being ineffective, but having the opposite effect of lowering investment and consumption demand through increased concerns about the federal debt, another financial crisis or the risk of inflation or deflation. The U.S. private sector has the money to make the investments that create jobs but their concerns have led to holding back. Taylor points to the need for a comprehensive economic strategy to replace these temporary interventions. The debt limit agreement of 2011 is a part of this strategy, and he agrees with reducing spending in a gradual way in a weak economy. The other parts of this strategy he says are entitlement reform, tax reform, regulatory reform, monetary reform, including a reappraisal of the role of government in the economy. This should lead to a more stable and predictable economic environment and reduced uncertainty about the future, which is critical to improving supply and demand....
The Guardian Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
About 19% or one in five do not have access to books at home in Britain, new research shows. A recent report shows 51% of parents find books just too expensive. The National Literacy Trust Report shows 64% of parents say the amount of money they have to spend on books has decreased. The findings are alarming as 1 in 13 children do not read at all, and only half of the children read daily.  This has serious repercussions on children's futures- in school, in college and in the job market. Reading habits develop with access to books at home and at libraries. Owning books encourages children to develop reading habits. The very basis of the fair societies and democracy of the UK, US and Europe is the access to books and reading for all parts of society and people at all income levels. Without this democracy cannot be sustained as the population is less and less literate and unable to preserve and protect its freedoms or misled by political leaders. The current threats to freedom Mr Biden has pointed out at Independence Hall in Philadelphia arise from this neglect that opened up with the neglect of manufacturing communities in the US and Europe which gradually eroded incomes and access to the goods and services that were opened up through the improvements of the last half of the 20th century. And improvements then lost in the "free markets" period of the last three decades that shifted manufacturing and jobs overseas, and reduced incomes of ordinary people.  ...
Washington Post Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The title says it all. The Jobs bank the United Autoworkers trade union in the US setup in GM in 1984 threatened American automaker GM's very survival in 2006. It put workers who were not needed at GM in a jobs bank. It basically meant the idled workers -many of them close to retirement -would stay there till they retired doing nothing collecting full salary. As Mohandas Gandhi had done for India in Hind Swaraj in 1910, the American labor movement needs to look at itself in the mirror if labor is to find its way into a world of dignity and fairness in wages that Mr.Biden truly seeks for American workers.   It was setup when GM had 45% of the US market and 415,000 workers. By 2006 113,000 workers were not needed with GM having lost marketshare to Japanese makers and the Jobs bank was costing GM about $10 million a week, half a billion a year threatening its survival. The Labor movement and the UAW union did nothing to fight its own membership and set it on the right course in union with management, putting at risk the very foundation that labor had put in place since Wilson, FDR and Truman for  fairness in wages and working conditions. Jeremy Peters tells the story in the NYT. That it was recent as 2006 and shows how much had gone wrong with the labor movement and the failure of its leaders to do the right thing. The Jobs Bank says NYT was intended to prevent manufacturers from shifting manufacturing overseas, instead it did just that by undermining confidence in unions and the American labor movement, and in American workers. Two crippling wars initiated by Republicans Bush and continued by Democrat Obama, disinvestment in American manufacturing, companies like Apple shifting their entire manufacturing through outshoring to Taiwan and China, the 2009 crisis from deregulation of American banks, led to the loss of not one, but two decades for America. In today's news a modest $2 in minimum wage increase from $15 to $17 over 3 years is all that New York governor Kathy Hochul could get- even though Assembly Democrats were asking for more- to give American workers and families a fair wage to meet the cost of living crisis.  ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Harris pragmatic approach and willingness to try new solutions applies to Michigan- to find ways to protect union jobs and make the transition to clean cars in a way that increases wages and jobs and creates a bright future for the auto industry. Letting other countries manufacture EV's would hand over the manufacturing technologies to say China and lead to a future collapse of the auto industry in Michigan. This is why there is a transition period which is flexible to 2030 or even 2034, and the curve is for more gains in EV sales in the latter years as prices come down and technology improves. At every step of the way business presents unique challenges, and FDR/Harris "persistent bold experimentation" is part of the answer as China's BYD has come up with a better cheaper in house battery that means it can export EV's at lower prices- the US can't as yet. Electric vehicles sales are plateauing in 2024 growing from 7.4% to 7.8%. The former president describes an EV mandate. No EV mandate for all cars to be electric exists. The action taken by president Biden is for all cars to meet greenhouse gas emission targets that would require 50 percent of cars to be electric vehicles by 2030. Michigan as the home of the auto industry is heavily influenced by the auto industry. Biden walked the picket line here last year to support a UAW strike for higher wages after decades of concessions by workers that reduced wages to near the poverty level for families.  Harris pragmatic approach and willingness to try new solutions applies to Michigan- to find ways to protect union jobs and make the transition to clean cars in a way that increases wages and jobs and creates a bright future for the auto industry. Letting other countries manufacture EV's would hand over the manufacturing technologies to say China and lead to a future collapse of the auto industry in Michigan. This is why there is a transition period which is flexible to 2030 or even 2034 an the curve is for more gains in EV sales in the latter years as prices come down and technology improves. At every step of the way business presents unique challenges and innovation is part of the answer as China's BYD has come up with a better in house battery that means it can export EV's- the US can't as yet. ...
France 24 Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Both Valerie Pecresse of the Republicains and Anne Hidalgo of the Socialists each win a small share of the vote. Pecresse less than 5% in France's presidential elections, Anne Hidalgo about 2%. These 2 parties dominated French elections for the postwar period for 6 decades. They have stumbled into a complete loss showing how they failed to connect with voter's concerns about high cost of living, jobs, manufacturing outshoring, neglect of infrastructure, and neglect of rural areas, much the same as in the US.

Washington Post Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The downturn starting in the 2008 financial crisis destroyed a huge portion of the average American's personal wealth- some estmates running to 40%. This was followed by periods of unemployment which depleted savings accounts, lower wage jobs, and followed by further erosion of savings accounts with little or no interest. The gains on the stock market have one problem- the benefits go in large part to affluent Americans who are already well prepared for retirement. A U.S. Senate report shows a huge retirement savings deficit- about $6.6 trillion, which comes to $57,000 for every American household.
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The monopolistic behaviour of Amazon is the subject of this report in the WSJ. Bezos originally called his company relentless and even now relentless.com takes you to Amazon site. What he has set up is a mentality of relentless growth by acting like an aggressive startup. WSJ says it has never grown up even though it has acquired business after business often buying or copying smaller companies. It has not matured even though it has over 1 million employees. The problem was low wages and only recently did Amazon increase wages. So that we have this strange and bizarre situation in a developed advanced country like the U.S. where a whole class of academic economists offer Americans low consumer goods costs with manufactured jobs shipped overseas in the name of fighting protectionism, and Amazon as well as automobile and other manufacturers cutting American wages, to create the kind of society we have today split between blue collar and white collar, economically, politically and socially. ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Instead of killing the NAFTA trade agreement Trump and his advisors prefer renegotiating the treaty. Priorities for the Trump administration are reducing the U.S. deficit with Mexico of $61 billion. Trade with Mexico and Canada is worth $1.1 trillion and the complex supply chains works such that product components cross borders more than once to become finished products. Mexico promotes its auto and other industries as duty free access to the U.S. for foreign investment. Special tariffs would reduce the trade deficit with Mexico and firms that moved production to Mexico would pay additional taxes. A provision that allows Mexican and Canadian companies to challenge U.S. regulations would also be removed. Rep. Brad Sherman (Democrat) says he supports the renegotiation so that duties of 4% are imposed to reduce the deficit to $25 billion.

New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Steven Rattner points to the decline in U.S. median household income as a result of globalization. At $7 an hour GM's Mexican auto workers are just as efficient as workers in the U.S. The result is a shift in jobs to Mexico and the two tier wage system in the U.S. auto industry, now formalized in new UAW contracts with Ford, GM and Chrysler. The UAW agrees to hire entry workers at $14 and hour. A new VW Chattanooga plant pays $14.50 an hour. Rattner points to the need to create new jobs with high intellectual content in service industries such as education, digital media, entertainment, and financial services. This requires a greater committment to education.
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
A comprehensive study on immigration's impact on the U.S. by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine in 2016, looks at the broad fiscal and economic impacts of immigration. On the drawbacks the new immigrants can lead to lower wages for earlier waves of immigrants and high school dropouts. It can also burden government finances, education budgets at local and state levels. On the plus side it leads to more innovation, entrepreneurship and technological change in the economy. Other facts that are new in the report and run against the popular narrative are that 53% of immigrants had at least some college, including 16% with graduate education, as of 2012- which explains the technological impact of being open to immigrants. It is this that helps lift overall growth says the report- "the prospects for long run economic growth in the United States would be considerably dimmed without the contributions of high-skilled immigrants." About 42.3 million immigrants live in the U.S. in 2014, 13% of the population, increasing from 24.5 million or 9% in 1995. Unauthorized immigrants doubled in this period to 11 million.  A surprising result considering the popular idea of anti-immigrant sentiment in the U.S. is that a WSJ/NBC poll shows 54% of respondents saying immigration helps more than it hurts. In 2006 only 45% to 42%, considered immigration as beneficial to the country. Immigration is an issue today even though in recent years the large scale deportations under the Obama administration and difficulty finding jobs have reduced the flow of immigrants - since 2009 about 300,000-400,000 new unauthorized immigrants arriving and similar number leaving.   ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke tells the House Financial Services Committee hearings that the Fed will give importance to underemployment, not just the unemployment rate, in making decisions about bond purchases. The unemployment rate could be a false indicator of the labor market if the rate falls below the Fed's goal of 6.5% before raising interest rates, and yet labor markets are still weak because of underemployment. Bernanke said: "There are a number of problems with the labor market. Unemployment is one problem, but long term unemployment and underemployment- and by 'underemployment,' I mean people either who are working fewer hours than they would like or possibly working at jobs well below their skill level- is also indicative of a weak labor market." In this situation of high underemployment combined with low inflation the Fed may hold off on raising interest rates when the unemployment rate reach 6.5%. In Bernanke's words: Reaching 6.5% unemployment "would not automatically result in an increase in the federal funds rate target." Since 2010 financial markets in the U.S., and to a lesser extent worldwide, have looked to U.S. Fed policy for raising interest rates, as guidance on the degree of support for the economy and by extension for markets....
NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The pandemic and ensuing lockdowns, unemployment in the US separated workers from their jobs just long enough to give them a chance to rethink how bad their jobs, incomes, and working conditions were before 2020, says this expert in the NYT. The aid to unemployed workers through long term unemployment benefits, moratorium of rent payments, direct money to households, gave workers enough financial room to make the choice not to go back to poor paying jobs with huge contact risks from coronavirus in the restaurant, fast food franchise, travel and entertainment industries, related industries.  With the Biden administration investing in child care, maternity leave, care for elderly leave, new opportunities for relocating and looking for work were opening for women, and for men who had stuck to old jobs and put up with lousy conditions because of a lack of alternatives. Biden administration's Families and Workers Plans, the effects of the pandemic, helped to shape a new culture of what was possible for workers- a sense that dignity in the workplace was part of culture in America. Restored by FDR/Truman and now again by Biden after two tech booms in the 1920's and the 1990's. A similar situation of a change in culture respecting the dignity of workers and of work is taking place in European Union as stated by SPD leader Olaf Scholz in his election campaign in Germany. Scholz is now incoming Chancellor replacing Merkel. European Union countries have better laws and rules in place for worker retention, and also better worker protections so that the great resignation that happened in America took place in a milder version. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Researchers David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Gordon Hanson of the University of California, San Diego, and David Dorn of the Center for Monetary and Fiscal Studies in Madrid, in independent research, studied the impact of trade on 722 clusters of interrelated counties in the U.S. They focussed on the surge in Chinese imports and found a pattern. Counties with higher exposure to Chinese import growth showed higher unemployment and higher expenditures by the government for unemployment benefits, food stamps and disability benefits. Their calculations show the increased government payments amount to one to two thirds of the gains from trade with China. This does not include the losses suffered by people losing jobs who deplete savings as they look for new jobs. Hanson studied the effects of trade and Chinese imports in the 1990's and found the effects were relatively small. This time the effects are large and show counties that lacked local investments in industrial machinery and technologies in which China was still playing catchup such as Caterpillar in Peoria, Illinois, and Boeing in Everett, Washington, were most susceptible to higher jobless rates and in need of government support payments. Autor and Hanson found that from 2000-2007, communities in the 75th percentile- ones with greater exposure to Chinese import growth than 75% of all communities- saw a manufacturing jobless rate of about one-third more than communities in the 25th percentile. The government payments mean higher taxes or larger deficits are needed to support these communities, and long periods of unemployment reduce the incentive to work. Michael Spence, a Nobel prize winning economist from New York University, says the world has never seen such a rapid pace of growth as China experienced between 2000-2011, with rates approaching 12% in some years, making past experience and prevailing theories on trade an insufficient guide to what is happening....
DW.COM Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
There is a major shift in world opinion among major countries in Asia and Europe and North America moving negative by double digits in Pew research surveys. The shift is gradual and negative in Germany, France, Spain and Italy, and steeply negative in Sweden, Denmark, Britain and the U.S., Japan and South Korea. The people with negative views of China in world affairs are also the people who believe China did a bad job in handling the coronavirus.  In Australia in one year alone there is a 24% increase to 81% of people who see China unfavorably, in Britain this is a 19% increase in one year to 74%. In the U.S. the shift is over 4 years by 20% to negative views for 73% viewing China unfavorably or negatively. The shift in Canada is similar to the U.S. The biggest shift is in Japan where 86% view China unfavorably and Sweden where this is 85% after China handled Swedish relations poorly. See the color graphs in the original article in DW.com by clicking on original article here in Lyrarc.com. It is rare to see the such a dramatic shift in public perception of one country. The handling of the coronavirus by China in a way that hurt all countries with lack of transparency and total cooperation normally seen in pandemics and the cost in poverty and job losses, economic losses has resulted in a massive loss of confidence in China, and in the leadership of Xi Jinping. Most public opinion in these countries now believes that Jinping cannot be trusted to do the right thing in world affairs. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The authors, Becker, Davis and Murphy, are from the University of Chicago. They point out that the uncertainty created by the Obama administration's programs including healthcare and social investments in education, energy conservation, and the desire to reduce carbon emissions, all tend to slow business expansion and investments to create jobs by putting additional costs on business. The expanding federal deficit and national debt also create additional uncertainty. Their point is that it was a mistake to start making major changes to transform the U.S. economy at this time, and that it would have been wiser to do these changes after the economy had recovered completely from the crisis. All efforts they say should have been concentrated on establishing conditions for a strong recovery. When combined with the lack of regulatory reforms to fix problems left behind from the crisis, and other failures, serious questions arise about how things will turn out in coming years. See Krugman- The Feeling of 1937, where Krugman takes this up from another angle, again with concerns about the future....
The Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Higher exports and lower imports boosted GDP growth by 1.59%, higher investment in equipment and AI related intellectual property investments, and consumer spending on healthcare services, pushed US GDP up to 4.5% for third quarter 2025. The annual rate of growth was pushed up to 2.5% matching the 2.4% growth in GDP for 2024 under the Biden administration. As the benefits of the rebuilding of American manufacturing, the benefits of the rapid depreciation of equipment and plant investments under the BIg Beautiful Bill are still in the future the GDP number is expected to be higher for 2025 and 2026. The formula for GDP estimates is to take total domestic spending and minus imports which are part of domestic spending in the US on imports, and to add the exports number, as these are goods produced in the US. An administration such as DJT administration today that promotes US exports, takes strong action such as tariffs against unfair trade goods pushed into the US, promotes US jobs and growth, ensures fair trade prevails, and invests in the US, is far more likely to get better GDP growth and jobs growth results. ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Days after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore's outer harbor, a key part of the industrial and jobs infrastructure in Maryland, this WSJ report shows 8 other bridges in the same dilapidated condition and at risk of collapsing. The eight bridges are- The Verrazano Narrows Bridge  NY-NJ,             The George Washington Bridge NY-NJ, The Golden Gate Bridge and the Oakland- San Francisco Bridge in California, the Chesapeake Bay Bridge in Maryland, the Tacoma Narrows Bridge in Washington state,  the Lewis and Clark Bridge and the St. Johns Bridge in Oregon. Note that all but one are older than Scott Key built in 1977, and all have "fracture critical" elements according to their WSJ report, meaning that even the failure of one steel component in tension could cause a collapse. Jennifer Homendy, chair of NTSB safety authority doing the investigation into Scott Key says that there are 17,000 bridges in the US that are fracture critical, showing how much of US infrastructure is aging and in need of investment that is today being sucked up in mad sprees of venture capital investing in startups, and in misallocation of capital, that contribute little to the ease of living, to jobs and essential infrastructure for the American people.                  ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
German economy contracts in second quarter 2024 by 0.1%. Growth is forecast at 0.3% for 2024 and 1.1% for 2025, according to country statistics office Destatis. The contrast could not be greater in Biden's management of the economy as US economic growth was much higher at about 2.8% in 2024. It shows the positive effects of Biden's effort to revive American manufacturing, and to support chips and science and American industry, and the investment of a trillion dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act in American infrastructure. Without these investments American recovery strong at this time would have hobbled along with much worse effects on jobs and inflation, and looming recession, under a Trump administration. Unusual factors such as the concentration of the supply chain in China have influenced US inflation, which Biden is correcting, and also bringing jobs at home. The economic management is excellent it  is the effects of the pandemic and broken supply chains, high mortgage rates and 20% price increases in apartment rentals that are making cost of living a problem for average Americans. Biden has taken cost of living action including canceling student debt and calling for limiting rent increases for apartment rentals to 5%. Harris has a program to support renters when housing takes up more than 30% of their income. ...
The Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
To help growth in the present situation of the pandemic the U.S. central bank is adopting a new policy of letting inflation float above 2%. Interest rates will be kept low for a longer period to support jobs and growth. Jerome Powell the head of the Federal Reserve announced the new policy.  Powell is mainly concerned about jobs. He sees a lot of difficulty in the services sector as jobs are lost. It will take time for this sector to recover. This is "a strategy where undershoots are not forgotten" Powell told the Jackson Hole gathering, meaning that the Fed in contrast to current policy will adopt a strategy of staying with a goal of full employment till the people who are lagging behind in regaining employment are back on the boat with the rest. In the past these people were left to fend for themselves, even when the loss of work was due to no fault of their own- crises from banks overlending and losing money as in 2009, or today because of a virus from Wuhan.  This is the part of economic policy that resonates in the country today and it shows that the Fed is on board in the effort to revive the American economy putting the people first as in the early years after the second world war when national unity prevailed under both Truman and Eisenhower. Powell uses both economic jargon about "a long tail" and common sense language in a way few central bank presidents have in America. He says the Fed is looking at "a long tail of a couple of years at least" during which he says the Fed will "stay with these people, the millions of people still looking for work." No mathematical formulas will be used. Just plain common sense and putting the people of America first, which is just what is needed. Mathematical economics have taken America nowhere. ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Upward mobility in China was weak and income growth for average workers sluggish during the years before the coronavirus outbreak. In this sense China is similar to the U.S. and Europe where upward mobility gains after the second world war were lost in the last 30 years partly from the loss of manufacturing to China. It is much worse now as the effects of the coronavirus lead to drops of as much as a third in income for ordinary workers. Lower income workers, the vast majority of Chinese numbering hundreds of millions now suffer from lost work or diminished wages. Small businesses cannot afford to pay the salaries paid before and as workers dip into savings or increase borrowing the retail spending is taking a hit. As a result economists see a vicious cycle of lower spending and lower incomes for the hundreds of millions of ordinary workers in construction and smaller businesses. Some small businesses could just close down because of weak demand affecting the economy over the long term. Before the coronavirus China went over three decades from being a Communist country with relatively equal distribution of wealth but lack of growth and technological development to a capitalist country with the structure of state control of the economy from the Communist period. The result is that 1% of the people control 33% of the wealth and the bottom 25% having 1% of the wealth, according to a 2015 Peking University study. China's president Xi Jinping, head of the Communist party, tried to reverse some of these trends by attacking corruption and making changes that began the task of reversing decades of unequal distribution of wealth under state sponsored capitalist growth. Investments were made in rural medical care, infrastructure and basic services. This did not have much impact because much of the pattern of growth over three decades continues including the housing bubble.  With coronavirus the trend is set for even more unequal distribution of wealth as many workers at the bottom half of the population in incomes either lose work, or see drop in incomes as businesses that hire them struggle from shoe factories to other retail business. Reports of informal economy and street markets in Chengdu in western China and bringing this part of the economy back by the state are effort to get people work in other ways. Researchers estimate that China's bottom 60% of household in incomes lost about $200 billion in income in the first half of 2020. In May premier Li Keqiang said 600 million people in China earn only about $140 a month. Many who lost income or jobs do not have support from the government as China lacks a program of comprehensive unemployment insurance as in Europe and the U.S. to help people get over bad times. 300 million migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to loss of income and dipping into savings.   ...
New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Urban renewal in Detroit, Michigan, at one time the fourth largest city in the U.S., which was hit hard by the decline in jobs in the auto industry.
NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Neil Irwin in the NYT why the U.S. China Phase 1 Trade Agreement is more than a hill of soyabeans as he puts it, more than about all the soyabeans that the U.S. farmers can sell to China. China's economy was seeing the effect of U.S. tariffs. Additional tariffs to cover all imports from China to the U.S. would have worsened this. China avoided this by agreeing to Phase 1. The U.S. had looked for some enforcement mechanism based on China putting this down in a written agreement particularly for avoiding subsidies to state enterprises and improper access to U.S. advanced technologies. China's reluctance to do this led to Mr. Trump saying that China had reversed its position and Trump expanding the tariffs stage by stage. These issues are now set aside for Phase 2 still to be negotiated. Both sides taking what they could get. China relief from the threat of tariffs on all exports. The U.S. under Mr. Lighthizer's negotiating leadership retaining the enforcement idea through the tariffs that are still in place of 25% on half of China's exports to the U.S. The bonus for Mr. Trump is the goodwill China generates by agreeing to buy all the U.S. farmers can produce, farmers having not only stood behind Mr. Trump but also forming a key part of his support base. China will continue to compete in technological areas with the U.S., and the state enterprise model which worked for China as Mr. Xi tells visitors will continue. Phase 2 is just that Phase 2, when and if it can be negotiated between Trump with his negotiator Lighthizer and Xi with his negotiator Liu He. On key points neither side is budging. A key goal for Mr. Trump is to put the trade surplus China enjoys of $300 plus billion a year with the U.S. on a serious downward path, and bring so many of the jobs and manufacturing back home. On this trade data for 2019 and the plan for 2020 of both countries is clear. It should be down each year by 10-20% for the next few years, a major achievement of Mr. Lighthizer, who did the same with  Japan under president Reagan. ...

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