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Theme Park revenue is holding up well at Disney with promotions at theme parks, but revenue at ABC TV networks is weak with auto ad spending down and declining viewership, and dvd sales are dropping precipitiously. Profits for the quarter ended Dec 27, fell 32%. ESPN and the Disney Channel are also seeing the effects of weak ad spending. Attendance at theme parks is up this year over last for the last quarter.

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The Republican tax bill that passed the House and Senate in Dec. 2017 is likely to increase the deficit in the range of about $516 billion according to Tax Foundation or $ 1trillion according to the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, after boost to growth is included. This time in an effort to get a win Republicans cast aside doubts about the effects on the deficit to get it passed. During the Obama years tax legislation failed to get Republican support because of impact on deficits. The reluctance of president Obama to touch the deductions as proposed by the Simpson-Bowles Commission showed the politically cautious approach taken by Obama.  The new bill was examined by the NYT for its impact on various income groups. For people making over $50,000 over 80% get a cut in taxes, about 10% see no difference and the rest see increase in taxes. This goes up by a few percentage points to 84-85% in cuts for people making over 200,000 to $ 1 million, and drops to 80% for over $1 million incomes. About 20% see an increase in taxes for incomes over $1 million.  As evidence of how the tax bill impacts in greater detail this is not provided by the NYT, and shows that the impact of the bill is still not fully understood.     ...

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The expected EU turnout in 2024 is at a high of 68 percent. Over the years since its formation the early enthusiasm and vision was replaced by dry directives issued by bureaucrats in Brussels leading to lethargy. 1979's 62 percent voter turnout contrasts with 2014's 48% voter turnout. Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have each in their way created new surge of interest in EU and the parliament in Strasbourg, says Caroline Gruyter from her conversations in France, Switzerland, Netherlands, Czech Republic. Today 74% of EU citizens polled say they support the European Union. Similar numbers even in the UK as Labor party is about to come back in a big way.  What happened? The war in Ukraine, Russia and NATO, US and NATO, the UK drift back to EU in sentiment, Italy's conservative parties called Right wing are supporting the EU under Meloni. Another reason for the sense of EU coming back to life comes from my visit to Germany, where after decades of disinvestment in infrastructure the rail station in Frankfurt is being rebuilt and new infrastructure is being built all over the city. Posters all over Frankfurt for EU parliament elections show a new spirit for Respect for workers, working families, and a sense that the FDP, SPD, CDU and Greens can take the decisions to give new vigor to the German democratic process.    ...

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The foreign lobbying by Pakistan and then India in Washington DC for access to the White House using lobbyist firms in the US. This enabled leaders from Pakistan to visit the White House in the US soon after conflict between Pakistan and India erupted over terrorist incident. Terrorist incidents happened in New Delhi and Islamabad in November 2025. The DJT administration may have gained support from Pakistan/Turkey for the Hamas settlement through this lobbying effort. The DJT administration inadvertently put itself in a position of being influenced by lobbying in this case for access to the White House. Following that event China's president Xi Jinping tightened restrictions on rare earths in trade negotiations with the US for a temporary agreement that gives access to the US market. This leaves the issue of illegal fentanyl flows from China and Mexico to the US, important to the US, and of restructuring world trade, also important to the US, major goals of this Republican administration in abeyance.   ...

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The mood for migration and for illegal migration has soured in Denmark, Netherlands, France and Germany. A series of attacks by migrants in UK, France, Germany has soured the mood for migration. A recent attack this week killing 2 National Guardsmen in Washington DC continues this trend in the US and has soured mood in the US and Europe for migrants.  The UK Home Office says-110,000 sought asylum in the UK Jan to Sept 2025, and  36,000 are temporarily housed in hotels up 2% from 2025. This is a big issue in the UK tying up state funding for illegal migrants in hotels and creating a climate of uncertainty in UK neighborhoods where such hotels are located. Nor is this an issue in which the Conservatives Party acted firmly as there were 56,000 migrants housed in hotels in September 2023. Labour Party entered government in July 2024 and has adopted the policy of Denmark under Shabana Mohamed as UK Home Secretary to stop and remove migrants from the UK. ...

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French surgeon, Dr Jacques Beres, who is 71, was one of the founders of Medecins San Frontieres, or Doctors Without Borders. He operated on 89 people in Homs and Homs province, during the attack on the region by forces loyal to President Bashar of Syria. Hager, Hodge and Rouselle give an account of the efforts to save lives by Dr. Beres. His trip to Syria was supported by the France-Syria Democracy group and by UAM93, which represents Muslim associations in the Paris suburb of Seine St-Dennis. Dr. Beres told the French radio network RTL that he was sad, and that he saw useless suffering in Homs, with cruelty and meanness for children and families.

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Los Angeles Unified School District has voted for a ban on smartphone use in schools starting in January. Governor Newsom is proposing to have a state wide ban in California to support children and parents in school education. Florida and Indiana are Republican led states with state bans on smartphone in schools. New York Governor Kathy Hochul seeks one in 2025. California Governor Newsom says: "When children and teens are in schools they should be focused on studies, not on screens." He has four children in schools. Dr. Murthy says in NYT that children spending more than 3 hours a day on social media were feeling the double the effects of depression and anxiety symptoms. And the actual use is 4.8 hours per day for this age group.

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France and Germany remained far apart on approach to banking regulation in Dec. 2012. Germany does not support regulatory powers of the ECB over Germany's small and midsized savings banks which lend to small businesses and consumers. France supports regulation of all 6000 banks in the eurozone by the ECB. Germany also raises concerns about how the regulatory powers of the ECB can affect its powers in setting interest rates. Germany does not support the British position for regulatory powers over London based banks to remain in Britain. Coming up with a new banking supervisor for European banks with regulatory powers of supervision is needed for Spain to get access to additional EU financing. This is also part of the new financial architecture for the eurozone, including deposit guarantees, which needs to be set up.

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U.S. president Trump set up a separate task force called the Great American Revival Industry Groups. He read each of the names out loud during his press conference on Monday, a list of about 200 industry leaders from all the main industry groups, many of whom he personally knows. The first meeting of this group met in a hour long call with about 35 participants.  Most of the leaders praised the strong action taken by the president. On the task of reopening the economy the participants told president Trump that current testing levels were inadequate for effectively reopening the economy.  This is the first of four calls the president plans to make and included leaders from banking, retail, hospitality,  and food industries. The tasks facing the task force are to provide advice on how to reopen the economy and how to respond to the economic damage.  The U.S. president decided to set up this task force after talking to his friends in the business world so that he could get the broadest possible range of advice and thinking. Dr. Fauci, the leading helth expert on the president's team along with Dr. Birx, said on April 14 that reopening would require testing and virus tracking that was efficient and reliable and that the U.S. was not there yet. U.S. has conducted about 3 million tests. Health experts say there should be millions of tests per day before people can return to work. ...

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Venetians say their city is being invaded by hordes of tourists who live in hotels on Mestre and cross a causeway to come to Venice. Venice gets an estimated 2 million tourists. A new referendum seeks to separate the city administration of Venice from Mestre giving Venice the autonomy to protect the city against floods and overburdening by tourists. Mestre has 3 times the population of Venice and is on dry land so that decisions made in Mestre are not in the interests of Venice.  The referendum is intended to stop cruise ships from coming to Venice at a time when new hotels are coming up in Mestre. The mayor and city administration oppose the referendum creating a situation after the damage caused by floods on November 12 which show how chaotic it is. Seventy two submersible yellow flood gates designed to prevent the flood were tested and could have been made activated on November 12, but no action was taken, causing about $1 billion in damage. The city is offering $5000 as compensation for businesses, but a bakery that sustained close to $77,000 of damage like other businesses is looking to the referendum to change the way the place is governed.  ...

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The UK's effort to protect its pharmaceutical exports of $8 billion and auto exports of $7 billion in trade talks with the US. Reeves will meet Scott Bessent in Washington DC.

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U.S. president Obama repeatedly compared the Iran nuclear deal vote in Congress to the 2002 vote to authorize the war in Iraq under president George W. Bush, in a speech at American University. President John Kennedy made a speech on a strategy for peace at American University in Washington D.C. on June 10, 1963, offering negotiations as away to a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty with the Soviet Union. Obama said the "choice we face is ultimately between diplomacy or some form of war." The nuclear deal faces bipartisan opposition in Congress on grounds of weak verification, doubts about Iran's intentions, lifting of a weapons embargo including ballistic missiles, and lifting of economic sanctions with snapback seen as unrealistic, and support limited to Democrats in Congress. Compared to the speech by Kennedy which was hopeful- " in the final analysis, our most common link is that we all inhabit this same planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children's future's. And we are all mortal." It was also a response to Soviet Union's head Nikita Krushchev's letter to Kennedy of Dec. 1962 following the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962, saying "the time has come now to put an end once and for all to all nuclear tests." Compared to the enthusiasm with which the Kennedy speech was received, the Obama speech brought up the divisions of the wars in Afghanistan and Iran, in which many Democrats including Senator Hillary Clinton voted to support the Iraq war, and missed the power of president Kennedy's (and Krushchev's) words of 1962. The last minute inclusion of a lifting of an arms embargo including ballistic missiles," created doubts about Iran's intentions in the U.S. Congress, unlike Kruschev and Kennedy's decisive response on the nuclear issue which led to the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. The condition agreed to that the Iran nuclear deal of July could pass with only one third of Congess supporting it- based on a presidential veto if Congress did not approve it with a two thirds majority- created the prospect of the U.S. moving ahead on a major foreign policy issue with only limited support....

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Leinberger describes a study he did with Mariela Alfonso for the Brookings Institution. This study shows that walkable areas of Washington D.C. metropolitan areas, including parts of Virginia and Maryland, have higher real estate values . The more the walkable area the higher the real estate price. Similiar trends are being seen in other parts of the country including Seattle, Washington. The trend is shifting in favor of areas with walkable and bikable space creating better communities.

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Bank of England governor Mervyn King's speech at the Economc Club of New York in Dec. 2012. About incoming governor Mark Carney, King says "I think he'll do a great job and they won't miss me at all." He says one way or another the U.S. will find a way to avoid the fiscal cliff. He sees a tension between short and long term policy goals such as recapitalizing banks and having governments reduce their debt.

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Short sales in the U.S. housing market in 2012-2013 are helping the recovery in housing prices and reducing foreclosures. Banks are reducing the time required to process short sales and both banks and homeowners are benefitting as foreclosures lead to much higher losses for all. In Oct 2012 foreclosures were 11.5% of total home sales, declining from 17.3% in Oct 2011, and dropping sharply from the 30% level in 2008-2009, according to CoreLogic. For the same period Oct 2011 to Oct 2012 short sales increased from 8.1% to 10.2%. Banks, real estate agents and homeowners see short sales as a better more efficient approach than letting homes go into disrepair, reducing prices in the neighborhood and creating larger losses for banks and homeowners. CoreLogic figures show short sales in Dec. 2012 cost 24% less than comparable houses not in financial distress. For foreclosures the discount was about 64%, showing the huge difference and how the wave of foreclosures in 2008-2011 must have hurt society and the economy....

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About 53% of the uninsured Americans disapprove of the Obama health care law, in comparison to 51% of the insured with health care coverage who disapprove of the new law. About 35% of the uninsured say they are likely to pay the penalty for not carrying insurance, and six of ten uninsured say it will make their health better. Overall the approval of the law is at 39% and disapproval at 50% in the Dec. 2013 poll. A striking part of the poll result is that 57% of the uninsured say it will increase their health care costs, compared to 52% of the insured. Only 20% say it will decrease their health care costs. This reflects the lack of serious controls on the surge in healthcare spending in the law. A separate research shows that more of the costs are passed on to users who will pay higher out-of-pocket costs after the law.

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The graphs show some striking results for the nation's trucking industry. Leading trucking company YRC Worldwide inthe LTL less than truckload niche of the trucking industry shows a 90% decline in shipping volume and has seen its shares decline by 90%. It is having problems with more nimble regional competitors as it strugggles to complete amerger of Yellow with Roadway trucking companies. In the midst of this merger it has been hit hard by drop in shipping volumes. Formed by a series of acquisitions YRC has 60,000 employees and 25,000 trucks with 25% of the LTL market. Other companies feeling the dramatic drop in freight shipping are UPS with a decline of about 40% and Fedex a decline of 50% shown in the graph. Union Pacific sees a decline of 5% in freight volumes for 4th quarter. Its the same story at the other railroads Norfolk, Burlington, and CSX. And ocean transport is showing a drop of 7% for the January to September period 2008 over 2007 for shipping containers entering the US through the top 10 container ports, according to HIS Global Insights. And the credit crisis is choking off credit to trucking companies, with 4000 of the 200,000 for hire trucking concerns in the US expected to fail. ...

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Members of the U.S. Congress lead a lousy life with life split between the capital and their home state location, most are weekend dads or moms. This makes them less likely to grasp the issues of work-life balance and the issues of parenting faced by average working families or couples with both parents working, says this essay in Politico magazine. This is true also of understanding issues facing women and mothers. Hard to believe but this report points out that Congress in the U.S. does not have a family friendly leave policy and no restroom for women till 2011 on the floor of the House. Similar issues face women in Japan and other countries for women in parliament. Former Speaker Ryan says he is tired of being a "weekend Dad." Senator Biden, former vice president says of his commute from Delaware to Washington D.C., he realized that "a child has a thought he wants to share and 12-18 hours later its gone, gone, gone." ...

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Perseverance at NASA, and after eight years of patient hard work overcoming the hurdle of doing the Mars Mission during coronavirus lockdown, lead to the final launch of the spacecraft to Mars on July 30, 2020. The mission craft is aptly called Perseverance. Names matter, the ship James Cook used to make the first trip of discovery to Australia was aptly called Endeavour and a replica can still be seen at the British Museum. The mission will provide clues to why the planet Mars once warm and wet turned into a dry desert, what about its ancient history made this happen. The mission will send rock samples back to earth, investigate the geology and climate on the planet, search for any signs of life, and look at the prospects for human exploration. A small helicopter Ingenuity will make the first flight on another planet.  Some facts about this mission- It can only be launched every 26 months as the earth and the planet Mars have to be on the same side of the sun which happens every 26 months for 3 weeks.  It costs 500 million dollars just to store the craft if the mission was delayed 26 months because of the pandemic. Other than the cost the reason for launching now without error was the need to give America enthusiasm about new frontiers to be explored even as it conducted the fight against the pandemic. NASA has 2000 scientists and engineers at JPL in California and 400 technical workers at KSC in Florida who do the work for missions. This mission used an essential team that did the work during the lockdown even as other scientists and engineers worked from home.   ...

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Just one scheme by a Dallas doctor, Dr. Jacques Roy, cost Medicare $350 million over 5 years. HHS data analysis showed Dr. Roy approved 500 times the number of patients normally approved per physician for home health care services- he approved 5000 instead of 100. A case in 2011 resulted in charges against 115 doctors, nurses and company managers, in 9 cities leading to $240 million in false billings.

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The Zillow index from Zillow Inc., the real estate web site, shows home values increasing by 5.8% in June 2013 over a year ago, and up 2.7% in the first six months of 2013. The Case-Shiller index shows home prices up 12.2% in May from one year ago. Economists say the Case-Shiller index overstates the price increases compares to the Zillow index because it includes foreclosed homes. During a period when foreclosures are slowing as in the past year, this tends to show a faster increase in prices in the Shiller index, with the reverse happening when foreclosures are high. This is because foreclosed homes sell at a large discount. The Zillow index excludes foreclosed homes removing this volatility in the index. Increase in mortgage rates by one percentage point, and future expectations of increases, are likely to keep price gains down in pricier markets of Boston, New York and San Francisco. Inventories are tight in some cities. Dallas, Los Angeles, San Diego, Washington D.C. and Orlando, have less than 3 months supply, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Phoenix, Seattle, Denver less than 2.5 months supply, according to a WSJ quarterly survey of 28 metro areas....

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A second survey by the Indian Council of Medical Research shows an increase in the number of people estimated to be affected. The survey sampled people from 70 districts in 21 States in India. Overall prevalence using this method is high at about 21.5%. India has confirmed 10 million cases. Children and young are also affected.

Dr. Balaram Bhargava, Director General of ICMR, says "The message is that large proportion of the population remains vulnerable, Vaccines are necessary, and there can be no complacency with regards masks, social distancing and hand hygiene." India has so far not seen the kind of second wave happening in Europe and the US, yet the risks remain, showing the need for rapid implementation of the vaccine program for 300 million in the first part of the vaccination drive.

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It is well known that rail has a smaller carbon footprint than automobile travel. The why is Amtrak suffering neglect for so long in the US when it is well funded in Europe, Japan, China and India? It is because of deliberate neglect by many administrations and by the US Congress through lack of funding for new trains, new technological investment, and investing in its infrastructure. President Biden is changing all this with investment of about $66 billion. He used the Acela fast train service for decades from Washington DC to Wilmington. WSJ shows how a new Amtrak is emerging with many new routes, new stations,  and none of the delays that freight railroads imposed on Amtrak for decades. Amtrak is now fighting the freight railroads in court and has the support of the Biden administration.

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Dry air is not good for preventing spread of coronavirus droplet inhalation as the droplets stay in the air longer. Humidity should be between 40% and capped at 60% say two studies from Germany and India. Coronavirus aerosols are the problem and there is less chance of the people breathing in droplets if the air is not dry. Opening of windows helps. Dry air also makes mucous membranes in the the nose dry and more permeable to viruses. Too much airconditioning or too much heating should be avoided says this report and ventilation is good.

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Spain's deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 6.0 percent for 2011. The target set by the Rajoy government is for the deficit to be lowered to 4.4% in 2012. Newly elected prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, told parliament that the "outlook could not be darker," with the economy expected to contract in the fourth quarter and in 2012. Rajoy, plans to introduce emergency budget measures on Dec. 30, 2011, labor market changes in the first quarter of 2012, and a banking sector cleanup in the first half of 2012. Savings of 16.5 billion euros will be needed to meet the 4.4% of GDP deficit target for 2012. Rajoy is studying the situation before announcing budget cuts. He affirmed that pensions which were frozen in 2011, will be raised in 2012 in line with inflation. He enjoys the support of France's president Sarkozy and German chancellor Merkel, as all three leaders are heads of conservative parties in Europe, and has excellent rapport with them going back to the period when Rajoy led the opposition party in Spain....