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This report  by Joshua Partlow in the Washington Post shows frequent and extensive contacts between Mexican officials and the Trump administration. Skeptical experts say this is mostly damage control. Yet it has helped defuse tensions on NAFTA and other issues, in some situations having president Trump reverse his stance. Mexico sends 80% of exports to the U.S., making this relationship crucial. Yet the scaling down of plans for a border wall, the emergence of a solution to NAFTA through changes without canceling NAFTA with support from Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, show the dialogue has preserved relations. Uncertainties loom such as the trade stance of president Trump, and the potential of front runner Lopez Obrador from the opposition party to emerge in upcoming elections as the new president of Mexico. Obrador, a former mayor of Mexico who was a close contendor in previous elections, says he will take a different stand than the current government in negotiations. Mexico's Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray made 12 trips to Washington in 2017 as part of the effort by the Mexican government to preserve NAFTA with some changes. He has relationships with John Kelly and Jared Kushner in the Trump administration that have facilitated his efforts.  ...

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As Nigeria's president Buhari returns from 100 days of receiving treatment for an unknown illness in London, the situation in Nigeria has deteriorated further. For most of 2017 Buhari was absent from Nigeria. In his place Vice president Obisanjo was running the administration. The situation in Nigeria has deteriorated under Buhari- in the northeast that attacks by the Boko Haram group, and discontent in the south from the lack of investment in that region with oil revenues leading to corruption. One of the dominant themes in Nigeria has been that oil revenues have led to corruption with little change under the administration of Buhari's predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, who came in as "Mr. Clean." Again and again the hope for a clean administration and good governance are not being met in countries with much of Africa's population. Nigeria with 186 million people suffers sorely in this respect.  See Ruchir Sharma's WSJ article on how oil revenues have become a curse with widespread Nigeria corruption. ...

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More than 30 states in the USA are facing budget deficits totaling more than $127 billion over the next 2 fiscal years. A look at how Mississippi Governor Barbour has tackled this issue. Barbour has cut the state budget 5 times, including education, mental health and other areas being cut by 10%. Barbour has access to $2.6 billion in stimulus funds from the federal stimulus, which prevented deeper cuts, and he signed into law 2 tax increases. Now Barbour feels he has reached a limit to the effectiveness of budget cuts he can make across the board, and he will have to look at restructuring some things. 2012 is going to be another tough year, as state tax revenues continue to be hurt badly because of the economy.

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How information generated by Tesco's Clubcards can be used through rigorous information collection, analysis of mounds of data by computers based on a clear structure for the information and what they are looking for. And how the information insights can be used to quickly take action in what to stock and who to target with what is stocked through direct mail and coupons. Tesco uses information about what interests customers, who they are, for example: child care providing fathers who might want the beer as well as the baby stuff, South Asians in immigrant heavy communities in the U.K. tracking what they buy, and don't buy and where. 1. This information driven strategy of Tesco has been copied by other retailers. P&G, Coca Cola, Kimberly Clark and other consumer product companies buy analyses based on Tesco data. 2. This strategy has helped Tesco battle Walmart overseas. Walmart failed in the S. Korean market after 8 years selling its 16 outlets to a local competitor, while Tesco has 39 stores in S. Korea that are doing well. Tesco is also doing well in Central Europe where Walmart intends to open stores. In the UK which accounts for 45% of Walmart's international sales and 10% of its overall sales, Walmart's share of the British market is 16% for groceries compared to 31% for Tesco. Walmart entered the British market in 1999 through the acquisition of the Asda chain of stores. Tesco is growing and doing much better than Walmart in the UK. 3. Tesco's Clubcard based information driven strategy- 3-1. Uses a outside provider that is excellent in its field, can pioneer techniques that will work with Tesco strategy, and has the energy and dedication. Tesco uses Dunnhumby, a husband-wife consultancy that also works with Kroger in the US running its loyalty card program and analyzing customer data. The research firm is now majority owned by Tesco. 3-2 How it works. Each week Dunnhumby receives data on 15 million shopping baskets. Each product is scored on 50 dimensions such as price and the size of the package. The computer looks for customers whose shopping baskets have similiar combinations of scores. Dunnhumby has made 6 segments for Tesco. Finer Foods segment is made up of affluent time strapped customers who go upscale and Traditional segment comprises homemakers who buy ingredients to cook meals from scratch. 3-3 The clubcard works as follows. Introduced in 1995 by Mr Leahy, now CEO, the application asks for information about dietary preferences, size of household, ages of children . The plastic a card in the mail gives customers a point for every pound they spend after they reach $280. Each point is a penny off future purchases and it also can be converted into miles in frequentflier programs In addition large spenders get discount coupons every 3 months on particular products keyed to their buying profile in the database. Quarterly coupon package from Tesco would include 3 coupons for stuff they regularly buy and 3 for stuff Tesco would like them to try. While only 1-2% of coupons ever get redeemed about 15-20% of Tesco coupons get redeemed. The package also includes vouchers through which members can redeem points. $300 of purchases would generate a voucher for $3.00 off any purchase. Karen Masek, an actor and mother of two in London, says Tesco's mailings reflect her preference for fresh produce, environment-friendly cleaning products and organic meat. She says Tesco knows her buying habits and never sends anything that is way off the mark. 3-4 The way Tesco battled successfully with Walmart: Tesco searched its database and identified shoppers who buy the cheapest items available. About 300 items were identified for price conscious customers. Tesco lowered prices on these items such as Tesco Value Brand margarine so that these buyers would not defect to Walmart. 3-5 Examples of how the computer data is used. 1n 2001 Kimberly Clark introduced a premium version of its Andrex toilet paper in the UK infused with aloe vera. Through the Clubcard research data one could track who was buying this toilet paper and how consistently, and later tracked what other products these buyers were buying so that they could be targeted with incentives. It was found that they bought skincare products so Kimberly Clark sent direct mail to 500,000 customers offering free beauty treatments for purchasing the toilet paper twice....

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Neil says Tata Motors has let the designers, procurement, engineering people at Jaguar and Range Rover in the UK make the decisions and use their independent thinking about the look and feel of the car and the SUV- and this has made all the difference. The Range Rover Evoque has sold over 100,000 units in the first year. The total sales of Jaguar and Range Rover reached 357,773 units in 2012 and is on pace to exceed that by a large margin in 2013. This could not have happened under Ford Motor Company, and Ford was better off with Mulally's strategy to simplify and focus on Ford's own models, says Neil.

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Mission Local depends on reader donations. This and other small news operations are giving a boost to local news coverage in the Bay Area region of northern California. San Francisco chronicle has increased circulation to 150,000 as the San Francisco Examiner has declined. A more educated audience in the area conscious about climate and local issues drives the need for better coverage of local news. It is also more affluent in many areas. Issues from homelessness, governor Newsom, Kamala Harris, climate and local issues create reader interest.

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Germany's and the European Union's oil imports from Russia are undermining western sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air says Russia earned 63 billion from fossil fuel exports since Feb. 24. Germany paid 9.1 billion euros for fossil fuel deliveries in the two months since the Russian invasion. Italy is next at 6.9 billion euros in oil and gas imports from Russia. China is third with 6.7 billion euros of oil and gas imports from Russia. The European Union is the main importer accounting for 71% or 44 billion euros of Russian oil and gas. CREA has found that western oil companies continue to do high volumes of trade in fossil fuels with Russia. This includes Total. BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil.

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This time there is less exposure for foreign investors as the Turkish lira drops because Turkish holdings were reduced. Turkey bondholdings have come down by half and holding of Turkey stocks down by 40%. The decline of the lira also reduced Turkish assets in benchmark emerging market indexes - in MSCI to 0.2%, and in JPMorgan's bond index to 1.1% from 5%. 

So far the situation in Turkey has not spread to other emerging markets such as Russia, Mexico and Brazil. With the Fed looking at raising interest rates earlier than planned, slower growth in China that takes in developing country commodity exports, emerging market assets are under some pressure. The WSJ Dollar Index was at a 15 month high on Nov. 24 and continues to be close to this.

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On India becoming the third largest economy in the world by 2030 prime minister Modi says- "When I became Chief Minister in 2001 the size of Gujarat's economy was around $26 billion. When I left Gujarat to become PM the size of Gujarat's economy had become $133 billion. When I became PM the size of India's economy was $2 trillion, and at the end of 2023-2024 the size of India's GDP will be more than $3.75 trillion. It is this track record of 23 years that shows a $5 trillion economy is a realistic target." Further "when I talk of Modi's guarantees, I bind myself to it. It propels me to work harder. It leads me to give everything to the people."

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Pokhara airport Nepal cost about $200 million but it does not get international flights from India which make it unsustainable. On the 10th anniversary of China's Belt and Road which has invested $1 trillion in development projects in poor countries of Asia and Africa, NYT's Wakabayashi, Sharma and Fu look at the China project that built a new international airport at Pokhara. CMAC initially submitted a bid for $305 million about twice what it would otherwise cost says this report, which was lowered to $216 million. Nepal signed a 20 year agreement with China. Only Chinese firms would be used in construction. A quarter of the loans at no interest. The rest a loan at 2% interest with repayment starting in 2026 from the Export Import Bank of China. 

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It is a dismal situation when 4 out of 5 persons in France do not know what work the European parliament does and what bills it has passed in recent years. Even though the $700 billion aid package for pandemic support was done in the EU parliament and the Green energy deal was also done there in Strasbourg, France most Europeans cannot name this or are unaware of it. About 46% or half of French think that European parliament elections on June 6-9 are for the European Commission. Social media and Google, Apple have done a dismal job of educating people- this is the reality today as Lyrarc engages in this role of educating and informing people so that they can affect and shape the decisions that determine the quality of their lives.

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The huge task of getting across policies to voters in the US who have been left out either through the presence of social media distracting attention or the busy lives of voters keeping them less informed as they struggle to get by. The message on the White House Biden and Harris site does not get through to these voters. The television and newspapers have only now gone into the policies Harris has announced at Wake Tech community college in Raleigh, North Carolina. This reaches a Democrat audience but what about it reaching the voters who are unaware in rural areas, of North Carolina and the rest of the 51states, in other areas and parts of the country where it is still fuzzy fuzzy with misinformation or counter advertising muddying up the clear picture of Harris policies. 

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In a game where the physical push and shove happened abundantly with many fouls including some involving Toni Kroos and leading to the sending off of Pedri, the Spaniards simply were the more resilient side. Spain led for most of the regular play period with a goal from Dani Olmo from a Yamal pass. Wirtz scored for Germany only in the 86th minute with a scramble taking place in front of goal. Spain were the better team overall and scored in extra time in what was a quarter final game but could have been the final, such was the intensity displayed by Germany who were seen by their fans as not having the determination to win in other games. Spain simply had some of the best players- Rodrigo, Yamal , Olmo and Morata and the play was relentless on both sides.

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Vance calls for hearing different voices in Europe to be heard. The anti-migration parties and voices were excluded by the conference chair Christoph Heusgen, who advised Merkel on foreign policy, and did little to prevent the mass migration into Germany and other countries. Vance called for the all voices to be heard even those which one disagreed. He said European countries are not as brittle as they think they are that all voices could not be heard and all views debated. Vance expressed his own view that people in Europe and the US were feeling endangered  after a decade of mass migration supported by politicians and parties in Europe. These politicians had not received support for their action at the ballot box said Vance, including with Brexit and in US with the election of DJT.

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Sharing the waters of the Indus river system means— the ‘Eastern Rivers’, namely Sutlej, Beas and Ravi, for India, and the ‘Western Rivers’ of Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab for Pakistan. Indus Waters Treaty changes proposed by India include bilateral not international arbitration for Indian dam building plans, and using water storage optimally on its side for the western rivers.

The western rivers have four times the water as eastern rivers and dam building technology has evolved over 75 years. The Indus Water Treaty was written by civil engineers but its international arbitration and three levels need to be replaced with bilateral settlement so that India can go ahead with dam building for development without Pakistan simply stalling everything, which serves no purpose for modernization.

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Food inflation in Europe is much higher than in the US, 5-10% in the US, Canada and Japan compared to 15-20% in Europe.  UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt sees further interest rate increases better than the continuing instability and cost of living crisis from inflation in this report in The Guardian. A recent report in WSJ shows how this is a fourth shock in Europe after the supply chain bottlenecks, the jump in energy prices, the labor market shortages. Germany is in a mild recession.

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The government of Pedro Sanchez has announced additional $10 billion in cost of living aid to take the total to $45 billion. It comes through reduced VAT and $200 one off payments to households making less than 27,000 euros a year. The government has been able to bring inflation down to 6.8%, lowest in the European Union, though food inflation is higher.

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Core consumer price inflation in Japan was up by 4% in December over a year earlier. Food prices were also up by 4%. This is the largest price increase since 1991. Services price inflation was up by only 0.8% compared to 7% in the US. The inflation target of the Bank of Japan is 2%.

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About 14 million people are in poverty or slipping below the poverty line according to Paritatische Wohlfahrtsverband, umbrella organization for welfare organizations. German per capita wealth is about 52,000 euros but there is growing inequality in wealth and incomes.  A household with 2 parents and 2 children is at the poverty line at 2410 euros a month or about 29000 euros a year. Social safety net under Hartz IV does little to help because it is set at 449 euros a month with 285 to 376 euros for each child. This is expected to go up to 503 euros a month per person in 2023. Even though experts say at least 650 euros are needed per month to live  with dignity. Under this system only 5 euros per day is set by Hartz IV for food, says DW.com, which is shocking. It means food of lesser quality or less food goes to the less well off. About 2 million people use food banks. Prices are up 12% in 2022 for basics such as bread, vegetables, milk and cheese. One study shows old age poverty is likely to affect 20% of Germans by 2036. The situation is bad for elderly, students and women. Women have worked part time reducing their income.  A student with federal funding gets 934 euros a month which is well below the poverty line. A new program for 200 billion euros is planned by German government to protect against inflation for households. Minimum wage is 12 euros per hour so that someone who works 40 hours a week makes 1480 per month in net income. After inflation this is close to the poverty line. Such is the situation for Germans today even after decades of growth and being seen as an export powerhouse. Compare this to the situation in India where the food program of the Modi administration continues to support food supplies that are adequate for feeding a family right through the pandemic for 800 million people and one sees that the idea of what is a rich or poor country is turned on its head. It is simply the will of the culture of a people and a country and its leadership that makes its limited or larger national wealth available to all its citizens, for the basics to fulfill the idea that "all men are created equal and they are endowed by their Creator with some inalienable rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness," enshrined in the minds of Asia borrowed from America. ...

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One in three students in Germany live below the poverty line. A 5.75% increase in government support is lost in inflation. Melissa is a 23 year old student at the University of Bonn with just 25 euros a week for shopping on food in this story in Dw.com. This means living on potatoes, cottage cheese and vegetarian schnitzel. She gets  about 1000 euros a month, 750 euros from the government and 219 euros from her parents. Of this 400 euros go to rent, 300 for semester fees, 

A person is considered risking poverty living on 1251 euros a month. Government support is set at a maximum of 934 euros a month for students not living with parents.

 

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China after American and European offshoring of supply chain and manufacturing over three decades is going through a rapid reversal. People to people contacts are also falling off a precipice as it were, showing how badly structured efforts by business focused on profit and not people to people fail miserably, hurting the long term prospect of peaceful cooperation. Foreign Investment that was $100 billion in the first quarter of 2022 is now $20 billion. Tourism down by about 80%. At Zhangjiajie National Park goes from half a million foreign tourists to 50,000 last year. It is typical of this staggering change.  People are not going from America and Europe to China unless they have to. It shows the complete failure of a purely business relationship such as offshoring manufacturing when it hurts workers and families in America and Europe, who turn against it leading to a free fall in relations. American and European business and the governments allied with it failed in this sense to build a world of better interpersonal relations between Asia and the western world. China's experience with industrialization and modernization begun in 1990 is now a cautionary tale for other regions such as India and the Middle East that are planning their own modernization. Much of it happened less from a people to people relationship than from an effort by US business to seize the opening of China after Mao's revolution to offshore American manufacturing as if realizing a new opportunity without understanding its long term consequences for the American people. European business followed American business in this offshoring. It damaged the basic structure of the American and EU peoples based on locally based supply chains and manufacturing at home needed for strong healthy communities, leading to this situation today. The rancor and deeply seated discontent all across America and Europe from communities losing factories and the jobs and wealth coming from it from offshoring by business interests has created this situation.  ...

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Clemens Wergin of Germany's Die Welt newspaper offers an alternative German view on the disengagement policies adopted by Germany as the Middle East unravelled, and points to the costs of following the policies of doing little followed by U.S. president Obama. He says Europe faces a security crisis in its neigboring region of North Africa, similar to how it faced a crisis in the Balkans, which has resulted in the refugee crisis; and that it needs to work with its partners Britain and France to develop its own policies if the U.S. continues to pursue policies of disengagement from the Middle East, North Africa and other regions.

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Nocera says the National Labor Relations Board and the Obama Administration's action to prevent Boeing from using a North Carolina non-union assembly plant for the Dreamliner is a clear case of regulatory "overreach. Precisely the kind that is not needed as the U.S. focusses on creating jobs and building manufactuing industry. There is no "retaliation" against the union in this case because Boeing is facing long delays and needs the additional facility to meet orders. The action of the NLRB as a government agency to prevent a company from locating its plants anywhere in the country- when Boeing has added jobs in Washington state as it expands- is incomprehensible.

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Andrew Rosenthal expresses Democratic party skepticism about Romney's tax plans to reduce tax rates for all Americans by 20%, reduce taxes for the middle class, and increase what the rich pay by reducing deductions and closing loopholes, and still be able to support the budget. Harvard economist and Romney advisor Feldstein has done the research on how Romney could do this and which loopholes Romney would address, in the WSJ 8/28/2012. The gap between the two parties is so large, and President Obama's failure to take the Simpson-Bowles recommendations to reduce deductions seriously, is leading to a lack of openness to different ideas.