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Shiller sees risks of a double dip recession from sudden events that further damage confidence.
01/31/2010
Shillers definition of adoubel dip recession is one in which unemployment stays stubbornly high for some years and a second recession occurs before a recovery is achieved from the first one. Statistical models and confidence indexes are poor at grasping and presenting this.
Linked Articles
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One
New York Times 05/14/2010
Stuck in Neutral? Reset the MoodNew York Times 01/31/2010
Danone and P&G's (Procter & Gamble) innovative strategies for reaching low income customers in emerging markets.
12/12/2009
In 2004 Indonesian managers showed Franck Riboud, CEO of Danone, a pyramid of customers in Indonesia's population of 240 million people. It showed only 20 million customers at the top of the pyramid as the only ones who could afford Danone products. At that point Ribaud made up his mind to go after the large number of people at the lower end of the pyramid and come with strategies to do this profitably. By 2010 46% of Danone's sales were from emerging markets, up from 10% a decade earlier, showing the pace of the change. Unilever, P&G, Nestle, Colgate-Palmolive and other companies are following similiar strategies. P&G has used Mexico as a lab for experimenting with new products at low price points and Danone has done this in Indonesia.
Linked Articles
Danone Expands Its Pantry to Woo the World's Poor
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2010
P.& G. Sees the World as Its ClientNew York Times 12/12/2009
Why the Obama health care law gets an "F" grade from the Dean of Harvard Medical School
11/18/2009
The failure to replace the "fee-for-service" system in favor of capitated payments is cited as one of the main reasons. The other reasons are it does not resolve the issues of introducing competition in quality of care and cost, and continues the practices that disguise the true cost of care with a highly fragmented system of care. In a op-ed, Jeffrey Flier, Dean of the Harvard Medical School, gives a detailed account for the reason for his grading. A poorly drafted or incomplete law says Flier can make things worse, citing the example of the health care law in Massachusetts which is driving up costs, as it does not change the old dysfunctional system's key features such as "fee-for service," and instead tries to build a new system on broken foundations. Pearlstein in the Washington Post says the Obama health care law has addressed the "fee-for-service" problem, but this is really not the case, and Flier's reasoning may be the clue to the deeper problem for the Obama health care law.
Linked Articles
Steven Pearlstein: Eat your broccoli, Justice Scalia - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/01/2012
Health 'Debate' Deserves a Failing GradeWall Street Journal 11/18/2009
The crying need for civilian aid and rural development programs in Afghanistan
10/18/2009
Commander Adams describes his experience in Khost province of Afghanistan. Dexter Filkins describes his experience about an irrigation canal that has been neglected through the long years of war.
Linked Articles
Afghanistan Doesn't Need More Troops
Wall Street Journal 10/28/2009
Stanley McChrystal’s Long WarNew York Times 10/18/2009
World Bank chief Zoellick on the global economy and how to prepare an effective long tem policy
10/02/2009
Zoellick sees the short term Stimulus and central bank monetary easing policies of 2008, as not appropriate to the long term problems of debt reduction and energy price volatility. He emphasizes the need for bridge financing for Spain and Italy though he accepts the German view that credit cannot be provided freely and reforms need to be undertaken. A partial euro bond solution is a step in the right direction.
Linked Articles
World Bank Chief Urges Euro Bonds
Wall Street Journal 05/31/2012
2010 Looks 'Highly Uncertain,' Zoellick SaysWall Street Journal 10/02/2009
BP, Shell and other foreign oil companies expand production in Iraq in 2012-2014
07/01/2009
Ambitious goals for oil production are set by the Iraqi government as oil companies from the, U.S., Europe, Russia and China, provide the expertise to increase production from older oil fields. Problems of infrastructure and national oil legislation hinder rapid development.
Linked Articles
Crude Oil Output Is Soaring in Iraq, Easing Markets
New York Times 06/02/2012
Oil Companies Reject Iraq's Contract TermsWall Street Journal 07/01/2009
A drastic overhaul, a sweeping restructuring is needed of the "fee-for-service" system to fix healthcare, the Obama health "reforms" risk becoming cosmetic.
06/14/2009
Cowen and Samuelson point out that without this big restructuring, taking in the uninsured into the system will only magnify the costs further. It would simply continue a unaffordable system of healthcare, that also delivers poor overall quality of healthcare for a steep price tag.
Linked Articles
Something’s Got to Give in Medicare Spending
New York Times 06/14/2009
Robert J. Samuelson - Wrong Way on Health 'Reform'Washington Post 06/15/2009
With capacity utilization at 68%, too much slack in the economy for inflation to take root.
06/11/2009
Producer Price Index showed its steepest decline since 1949 for May 2009 over May 2008. And there are still 10 unsold homes for every one sold, with the typical being 6.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Housing Starts Jump in May for Third MonthWall Street Journal 06/16/2009
Bernanke's views on how the underutilization of labor in todays markets should make inflation less of a threat.
06/11/2009
Remarks by Bernanke to the Open Market Committee of the Fed in 2003, have a relevance to the situation facing the economy today. Rising raw materials prices and the falling dollar are likely to have a muted effect on inflation. The impact of slowing wages and the high unemployment and growing underutilization of labor, in the midst of a manufacturing capacity utilization rate of 68% and continuing to fall, are likely to be the deciding factors.
Linked Articles
Slack Labor Markets Will Hold Down Prices
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2009
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest RatesWall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The dangers of high unemployment in the American economy.
06/06/2009
WIth job losses of 467,000 in June 2009, Krugman sees a joblosses hole of 8.5 million jobs since the last recession. The 3 1/2 million jobs the stimulus is supposed to create by 2010 end fade in comparison to the scale of job loss that is emerging. With declining earnings, there is the additional prospect of deflation.
Linked Articles
New York Times 07/03/2009
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a LifestyleWashington Post 06/06/2009
Obama's Cairo speech on June 4, 2009 to the Muslim world coincides with Moussavi taking on Ahmadinejad for his extremism in Teheran in an election debate.
06/04/2009
Moussavi debated forcefully with Ahmadinejad on Iranian television calling for good sense in relations with the rest of the world and calling Ahmadinnejad an extremist. He called Ahmadinejad's denial of the Holocaust as undermining Iran's dignity, while Obama called it baseless, ignorant and hateful. Something that could only occur in the climate created by Obama's opening of a dialogue with the Muslim world and helping melt old attitudes and perceptions.
Linked Articles
President Obama's Cairo Appeal
Washington Post 06/05/2009
Iran President and Challenger Clash in DebateNew York Times 06/04/2009
An Arab view about the need to change old attitudes and perceptions about US and Muslim world differences.
06/03/2009
The need for education in the Muslim and Arab world that helps melt old attitudes and perceptions. This is a large region covering the Arabs in Egypt and North Africa to Muslims in South Asia.
Linked Articles
President Obama's Cairo Appeal
Washington Post 06/05/2009
Education vs. ExtremismWall Street Journal 06/03/2009
The huge downsizing in the auto industry creates the need for big government supported initatives in retraining.
05/21/2009
Vicotr Brown and the 60,000 former workers at GM's BUick City have worked at GM all their lives, and can't imagine anything else. How does one get them from joining the ranks of the permanently unemployed, is a challenge for the government. THe labor underutilization rate expected to reach 20% for 2010, could threaten the economic recovery, and put everything at risk.
Linked Articles
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
The Last Holdouts Cast Their Lot With G.M.New York Times 05/21/2009
Hatoyama fails to implement his vision for Japan.
12/23/2009
Perceived as indecisive over issues related to cutting wasteful spending and reducing the deficit, and the shift of an American base out of Okinawa, Hatoyama's popularity drops to 25%. He resigns (teary- eyed) after only 8 months in office. It shows how difficult it has become to find aleader since Mr Koizumi left office.
Linked Articles
Japanâs Premier Will Quit as Approval Plummets
New York Times 06/01/2010
Harsh Realities Stand in the Way of a Leader’s Vision of a New JapanNew York Times 12/23/2009
The risk of cancer from the chemicals in consumer products that surround us is something human society has never faced in this way before.
12/06/2009
Linked Articles
Commonly Used Chemicals Come Under New Scrutiny
New York Times 05/01/2015
Cancer From the Kitchen?New York Times 12/06/2009
Ed Whitacre and the revival at General Motors- restarting an American icon that had fallen into bad ways
11/13/2009
The management changes and the management style that went into changing General Motors, once an icon of American enterprise in the prewar and early post war period.
Linked Articles
After Bankruptcy, G.M. Struggles to Shed a Legendary Bureaucracy
New York Times 11/13/2009
Ed Whitacre's Battle to Save GM from ItselfBusinessWeek 04/29/2010
David Rieff provides insights on why all developing countries, Mexico, Brazil, India, Indonesia and China need to take child malnutrition seriously
10/11/2009
The Indian lower house of parliament passed a Food Security bill in August 2013. Rieff says China made serious progress to reduce malnutrition from over 21% for children under 5 years to around 7% today after 1990. In India malnutrition for children under 5 years is above 40%. There is a lot that developing coutnries can learn from each other in this area including the Bolsa Familia program in Brazil which uses the concept of improving vaccination for children and school attendance as requirements for subsidy payments to the poor. Mexico and Indonesia have different versions of programs to help the poorer sections of society. The problem is acute in India because of indifference induced by caste and other considerations and the high level of malnutrition for children. Rief says how good is ademographic dividend when many of these children are permanently and silently impaired by malnutrition by the age of three. India's Congress party leader, Sonia Gandhi, put it differently in parliament: "What is our responsibility to these people?"
Linked Articles
New York Times 10/11/2009
India's Lower House Passes Food Bill to Help PoorWall Street Journal 08/26/2013
U.S. president Obama, lobbyists and the 2010 Obama health care law
07/24/2009
The political process and the influence of lobbyists on Congress and the White House constrains the development of laws that control healthcare costs. Higher health care costs means less money for infrastructure development, education, research and development funding, and other priorities which build a future for Americans.
Linked Articles
E-Mails Highlight Extent of Obama's Deal With Industry on Health Care
New York Times 06/08/2012
Obama's Health Expert Gets PoliticalWall Street Journal 07/24/2009
Aspects of the Reform proposal that were influenced by the work of Prof Sunstein and Prof Thaler at the University of Chicago.
06/17/2009
Sunstein and Thaler's book "Nudge" talks about the role psychology plays, and behavoural aspects play in human behaviour. The President is a friend of Sunstein from their days at the University of Chicago law school. The onsumer Financial Protection Agency and its role, says Zweig, takes some ideas from Prof. Sunstein's work to protect consumers.
Linked Articles
Obama’s Financial Reform Plan: The Condensed Version
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2009
About Time: Regulation Based On Human NatureWall Street Journal 06/20/2009
The Economist cites IMF economist estimates that the public debt of the 10 largest industrialized countries will jump from 78% to 114% of GDP by 2014, leading to higher interest rates and inflation.
06/11/2009
The rising public debt and its unsustainability is what the future holds. For governments and decisionmakers there are very difficult choices, as fiscaly austerity and premature fiscal tightening or raising interest ratescan choke off a recovery. Raising taxes as happened earlier in Japan's lost decade also can choke off a recovery. Seriously tacklig health care costs and raising the retirement age, are much needed steps.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The biggest bill in historyEconomist 06/11/2009
Peter Coy, Economics editor of Business Week, on the risks of inflation.
06/11/2009
Krugman responded to Laffer's oped in WSJ with an op-ed of his own in the NYT suggesting that Bernanke's Fed should stay the course. In this article Peter Coy, aveteran reporter and analyst of BW, looks at the situation and the facts. Demand is so weak in the economy, that the Fed's expansion of the money supply only helps make up for this and still falls short. The economy will be fragile for some time to come so reversing course is simply dangerous. In the video that goes with this he tells Mandel that Bernanke is right and should stay the course.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Why the Fed Isn't Igniting InflationBusinessWeek 06/18/2009
The small town roots, candour and direct ways of Ed Whitacre of AT&T and his role in reviving General Motors (GM)
06/10/2009
Ed Whitacre with roots in Lubbock, Texas, brings a fresh approach, candour and directness to GM.
Linked Articles
GM CEO takes bold steps He topples hierarchy, voes to repay loans.
Detroit Free Press 01/11/2010
Former AT&T Chief to Be GM ChairmanWall Street Journal 06/10/2009
As the government sells $5 trillion in new debt by one estimate, the problem of an estimated $ 1 trillion in troubled assets on the banks books is being put off for another day.
06/04/2009
The FDIC's Legacy Loans Program's $1 billion pilot program attracts no interest. The Public Private Partnership Program of Secretary Geithner, like Secretary Paulson's TARP program before Geithner, is also unlikely to attract much interest as banks are not willing to take the prices that would require them to show large losses on their books. But this means that these problems are postponed for another day.
Linked Articles
Plan to Help Banks Clear Their Books Is Halted
New York Times 06/04/2009
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World GrowthNew York Times 06/04/2009
With $5 trillion of new debt issue estimated in 2009-2010, the prospect of continued bailout of auto industry for years dims outlook for reversing this.
06/03/2009
Some experts point to the need for a 50% reduction in capacity in the auto industry from 2008. Demand may be lower than the 9.5 million vehicle year that the auto task force says is needed for GM to breakeven. This will mean continued government aid to the industry for a number of years.
Linked Articles
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World Growth
New York Times 06/04/2009
Kicking the Tires on the General Motors DealWashington Post 06/03/2009
Looking at it from Benjamin Graham's perspective this sure is overoptimism, prices of share overestended and overpriced.
05/23/2009
A reminder to take Benjamin Graham's perspective and view things from the "the standpoint of eternity rather than day to day."
Linked Articles
If You Think Worst Is Over, Take Benjamin Graham's Advice
Wall Street Journal 05/23/2009
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World GrowthNew York Times 06/04/2009
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