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How the automakers overcapacity by about a third of the 94 million capacity worldwide will play out similiarly over time in other industries.
12/31/2008
The automakers with their huge overcapacity face a rapidly developing crisis, as they will be forced to close plants quickly. A similiar situation is likely to develop gradually in other industries that have overcapacity from falling sales and a reluctant consumer, who is now focussed on saving.
Linked Articles
Automakers' Overcapacity Problem
BusinessWeek 12/31/2008
The Doomsayers Who Got It RightWall Street Journal 01/02/2009
How global imbalances in savings were ignored as the risks increased.
12/26/2008
Prof. Portes on global imbalances in savings. What happened and why the risks were not understood by Bernanke, Greenspan, and others. The view that successful models are very hard to change, reluctance in China to disturb the status quo, and the difficulty of getting people to accept the need to move away from this without a crisis.
Linked Articles
Imbalance in Nations' Savings Clouds Forecasts for Recovery
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2009
Chinese Savings Helped Inflate American BubbleNew York Times 12/26/2008
The collapse of the consumer debt market in October 2008 and the Fed's response.
11/26/2008
The collapse of consumer debt market and the collapsing sales of automakers especially GM, and the need to revive the sale of consumer debt securites which in turn revives lending. But higher credit scores and consumer and bank fears may still keep demand in a contimuing slide.
Linked Articles
U.S. Consumer Loan Aid Will Trickle Only So Far
New York Times 11/27/2008
Fear Recedes in the Debt MarketsWall Street Journal 11/26/2008
In the past decade China's consumption as percentage of GDP drops 10% to 37%, America's rise to 96%.
11/26/2008
This leads to the global imbalance in savings that London B-School's Prof. Portes complains about. Cross border flows fro, Asia to the West reach 3% of global GDP, pumping extra money into the US banking system, and the European banking system leading to bad lending and a consumption binge. The reluctance of China and the U.S. to change the staus quo till things simply collapsed.
Linked Articles
Imbalance in Nations' Savings Clouds Forecasts for Recovery
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2009
Global Economy: No Help from China's ConsumersBusinessWeek 11/26/2008
A hedge fund story of comeback from collapse- Citadel hedge fund and founder Ken Griffin in 2008 and in 2015
10/25/2008
Linked Articles
Citadel’s Ken Griffin Leaves 2008 Tumble Far Behind
Wall Street Journal 08/04/2015
Citadel Chief Denies Rumors of TroubleNew York Times 10/25/2008
GM to accelerate factory closings to save money as it has no access to credit.
10/14/2008
With credit markets frozen as a result of the global financial crisis in late Sept and early October, GM has no access to credit markets. GM is now accelerating closure of plants to meet the new situation.
Linked Articles
Detroit Free Press 10/14/2008
Howes: One of Big 3 may not surviveDetroit News 10/14/2008
Nobel Prize winer Vernon Smith likes the direct injection of capital into undercapitalized banks.
10/09/2008
Vernon Smith thinks Treasury has little experience with reverse auctions and they will be awfully hard to do. Direct injection of capital into banks is something Treasury has experience and has done recently in some bank failures such as WaMu takeover by Chase organized by FDIC and Treasury. The British rescue plan of Gordon Brown is to provide capital to the banks in return for equity stakes.
Linked Articles
Britain Takes a Different Route to Rescue Its Banks
New York Times 10/09/2008
There's No Easy Way Out of the BubbleWall Street Journal 10/09/2008
With 1 in 6 mortgages or 16%, 12 millon mortgages "under water," the Feldstein Plan makes sense.
10/04/2008
Martin Feldstein, headed Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan. His plan is to go to the root of the problem, which is the estimated 40% of mortgages expected to be worth less than market value of the home by Deutsche Bank estimates as the crisis peaks.
Linked Articles
Housing Pain Gauge: Nearly 1 in 6 Owners 'Under Water'
Wall Street Journal 10/08/2008
The Problem Is Still Falling House PricesWall Street Journal 10/04/2008
The Uptick Rule and how it could have prevented the kind of shortselling that almost killed Morgan Stanley.
10/02/2008
Shortselling, the uptick rule and the collapse in share price at Morgan Stanley and later in November 2008 at Citigroup.
Linked Articles
NYSE Chief Leans Toward Uptick Rule
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2008
Anatomy of the Morgan Stanley PanicWall Street Journal 11/24/2008
FDIC Sheila Bair's approach and her using IndyMac as a model on how to help rebuild a failed bank
08/21/2008
Before the FDIC took over IndyMac bank Sheila Bair who heads the FDIC had given her own proposal to tackle the mortgage crisis and credit cris. Now she can use the IndyMac bank to develop a model for resolution of failed banks.
Linked Articles
Agency’s Head Expects Banking’s Crisis to Worsen
New York Times 08/27/2008
FDIC Unveils Plan to Aid IndyMac BorrowersWall Street Journal 08/21/2008
How good were the U.S. Federal Reserve's stress tests of 2012?
07/16/2008
Reilly questions the leveraging aspect of the Fed's 2002 stress test results as they leave U.S. banks leveraging at between 20-30 times capital, the situation that prevailed before the crisis. Experts including Anil Kashyap at the University of Chicago pointed out how the process of deleveraging works in reverse before the collapse of Lehman in 2008- for every $1 of bank losses the deleveraging cycle reduces bank lending by $20- $30.
Linked Articles
Stressing the Bank 'Stress Tests'
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2012
How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street?BusinessWeek 07/16/2008
The U.S. automobile market in 2008-2013- collapse, recovery and renewal
05/20/2008
Linked Articles
Car Makers' Boom Years Now Look Like a Bubble
Wall Street Journal 05/20/2008
Auto Makers Rebound as Buyers Go BigWall Street Journal 01/04/2014
Sheila Barr, head of the FDIC, first suggested her proposal for foreclosures on April 30, 2008, about the time Feldstein made his.
04/30/2008
Martin Feldstein first made his proposal in early 2008, then repeated it in October 2008, as the crisis took a turn for the worse. Sheila Barr made her proposal public on April 30, 2008. Both address foreclosures. Later Sheila Barr implemented this when FDIC took over IndyMac bank for Indy's mortgage borrowers.
Linked Articles
Bair Proposal Seeks Government Loans To Aid Homeowners
Wall Street Journal 04/30/2008
The Problem Is Still Falling House PricesWall Street Journal 10/04/2008
Sales slowing, inventories piling up of electronics goods, and the Capps and Muirs of Boise, Idaho.
12/31/2008
The dramatic shift to a savings oriented and thrifty lifestyle reminiscent of the thirties and forties in some ways, is seen in the new lifestyles and spending habits of the Capps and Muirs in Boise, Idaho. With its high tech factories Boise has held up well in previous recessions. If things are changing this much in a place like Boise then its aserious sign of changes in the whole country. This is leading to buidup of inventories of cars, electronics goods, and other goods in retail stores. It has a serious global aspect as products made in China are affected, and products made elsewhere that go into these products are affected, and the equipment manufacturers in Germany for these products made in China are also affected.
Linked Articles
BusinessWeek 12/31/2008
Hard-Hit Families Finally Start Saving, Aggravating Nation's Economic WoesWall Street Journal 01/06/2009
The untold story of civilians caught in the crossfire in the wars in places like Gaza and Afganistan that have lasted decades.
12/25/2008
A physiotherapist from Turin, Italy, who runs the Red Cross Rehabilitation Center in Afghanistan, and a wounded surgeon who loses his wife and child in the cross fire between militants and Israelis in Gaza City, both have an untold story of civilians in both places.
Linked Articles
A Foreign Face Beloved by Afghans of All Stripes
New York Times 12/25/2008
Despair and a Defiant Smile in a Gaza HospitalNew York Times 01/09/2009
With no safey net Chinese savings rate is high and the export model is entrenched pushing Chinese savings into financing American consumption.
11/26/2008
With the collapse of export markets in the U.S., China and the U.S. are now having to face up to the problems inherent in American dependence on Chinese products and Chinese savings to finance excessive consumption, and Chinese dependence on American export markets.
Linked Articles
Chinese Savings Helped Inflate American Bubble
New York Times 12/26/2008
Global Economy: No Help from China's ConsumersBusinessWeek 11/26/2008
The collapse of share price at Morgan Stanley and Citigroup as short sellers wreak havoc.
11/22/2008
What short sellers are doing to destroy value in large financial institutions and the failure of the government and the SEC to reinstate the uptick rule remains a glaring omission.
Linked Articles
Shares Falling, Citigroup Talks to Government
New York Times 11/22/2008
Anatomy of the Morgan Stanley PanicWall Street Journal 11/24/2008
Sheila Bair, former chairwoman of the U.S FDIC and her proposal to level the playing field for government loans to homeowners and banks
10/16/2008
Linked Articles
Fix income inequality with $10 million loans for everyone! - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/13/2012
FDIC Chief Raps Rescue for Helping Banks Over HomeownersWall Street Journal 10/16/2008
Wall Street Journal editorial says the British Plan is the right way to go.
10/09/2008
Gordon Brown's rescue Plan goes directly to the problem of recapitalizing the banks and gets ownership stakes in return for taxpayer money and is a good one in the view of the WSJ.
Linked Articles
Britain Takes a Different Route to Rescue Its Banks
New York Times 10/09/2008
A Plan -- at LastWall Street Journal 10/09/2008
British Plan lifts reputation of Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, his finance minister.
10/09/2008
After some fumbling in the bank run on Northern Rock, Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling come up with what the Wall Street Journal calls "A Plan at Last," as if heaving a sigh of relief after Paulson and Bernanke's own fumbling with troubled assets program.
Linked Articles
U.K. Chiefs Repair Image With Bailout
Wall Street Journal 10/14/2008
A Plan -- at LastWall Street Journal 10/09/2008
The Martin Feldstein plan to address foreclosures and the plan of Glenn Hubbard.
10/02/2008
Feldstein headed Reagan's economic policy team, and Hubbard headed the elder Bush's economic policy team. Its interesting that both lamented the lack of addressing the foreclosures as root of the problem. Feldstein and Hubbard gave their own proposals on the pages of the WSJ on the eve of the $700 billion bailout. The bailout plan had this gaping hole in it- with little for serious foreclosure prevention.
Linked Articles
The Problem Is Still Falling House Prices
Wall Street Journal 10/04/2008
First, Let's Stabilize Home PricesWall Street Journal 10/02/2008
Sheila Barr voices concern about lack of serious homeowner help, only institutional help.
08/27/2008
FDIC's Sheila Barr voices concern for a lack of serious homeowner help and an incomprehensible reluctance to do anything serious for homeowners in Congress or the Bush Administration even as Barr, Paulson and Bernanke offered no choice to CEO's of leading banks at the meeting last week in Paulson's offices but to sign term sheets for accepting $125 billion from the government. Another $125 billion goes to smaller banks. And a unspecified amount goes to buy troubled assets under TARP, and money to buy commercial paper, and other institutional help. Still nothing on a large comprehensive basis to help homeowners in difficulty which is at the root of this crisis according to Feldstein, Hubbard, Bair.
Linked Articles
FDIC Chief Raps Rescue for Helping Banks Over Homeowners
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2008
Agency’s Head Expects Banking’s Crisis to WorsenNew York Times 08/27/2008
The presidential candidates Obama and McCain, agents of change or agents of lobbyists?
07/23/2008
Fannie and Freddie takeover and the reporting of high level ties with lobbyists of both candidates shows the agents of change argument like the free markets argument "as only a thin veneer" as one expert puts it. In this case though the lobbyists who are in other roles as close advisors to the two candidates and the candidates themselves may not realize that politics as usual here had huge implications. Without the hard work of Secretary Paulson and Bernanke the collapse of Fannie and Freddie could have endangered the American economy, not an overstatement, and could also have serious ripple effects all over the world economy.
Linked Articles
For ’08 Rivals, a Skein of Ties to Loan Giants
New York Times 09/10/2008
The Fannie Mae GangWall Street Journal 07/23/2008
Leveraging of banks U.S. banks in 2012 under the U.S. Federal Reserve stress tests of March 2012 and the leveraging at the time of Lehman's collapse in 2008
07/16/2008
The high rate of leveraging of banks today compared to 2008, suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have prematurely declared the banks safe, say experts.
Linked Articles
Stressing the Bank 'Stress Tests'
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2012
How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street?BusinessWeek 07/16/2008
Imbalances in the global economy that will take time to correct- the situation in the U.S., Europe and emerging markets in 2012-2013
05/05/2008
The perception that "this time is different" is a typical behavioural reaction in history to to financial crises studied by Rogoff and Reinhart. Economic weakness is part of the mechanism for correcting global imbalances which happens over a number of years.
Linked Articles
Economy May Face Prolonged Pain, History Suggests
Wall Street Journal 05/05/2008
Boom, Bust. Repeat.Wall Street Journal 10/09/2009
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