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China's huge trade surplus with the U.S. continues to grow even after President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. China's total exports have risen by 15.6% from a year earlier, higher than the 14.5% increase year over year in September. Exports to India, Hong Kong, grew by more than 20% in October over a year earlier.  By Chinese figures China's trade surplus with the U.S. of $260 billion for 10 months of 2018 is up 15% from year earlier, ready to set another record. This does not tally with what the U.S. says it is, with the U.S. estimate of the trade gap at $375.2 billion, over $1 billion each and every day. Previous administrations of both Republican and Democratic parties put up with the trade surplus or did little. President Trump has taken this up as a big issue and imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in a series of actions. The combined U.S. and Chinese tariffs now cover 60% of their trade in goods after the latest round of tit for tat tariffs. Experts say there is front loading of Chinese exports which accounts for the sharp increase in exports to beat the date when tariffs go into effect. Yet the overall increase in China's exports, with an added impetus from a stronger dollar suggests that the trade gap with the U.S. is a problem that will fester for a while till the trends are reversed.  ...

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Daniel Yergin, expert on international oil markets, says the oil price cap set by the US and EU at $60 and the European prohibition on Russian oil imports after Dec. 5, means the end of the global oil market. That global oil market came into place with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the industrialization of China. In its place comes a partitioned oil market shaped by not only economics and logistics but also by geopolitical strategy, says Yergin. This means Russia no longer sends 4 million barrels a day to Europe. The price cap is a US strategy to prevent a price surge with Russia cutting production to raise prices. It is working. with a slowing world economy, and shipping companies reluctant to take on unknown liabilities from government penalties, the price of Russian oil is now at mid $40's, about 45% below the benchmark price and 33% below the $70 price of oil on which the Russian budget is based, says this report. This has an unintended effect of enabling India to support its modernization drive with oil imports at reasonable prices coming just after a pandemic. ...

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This report by NYT's Choe Sang Hun shows in a brief and lucid manner the charges against South Korea's president Park Geun-hye, as the National Assembly votes on a motion to impeach her.  Her close friend and advisor, Ms. Choo Soon-sil, is involved. Ms. Soon-sil is accused by prosecutors of seeking favors from corporations such as Hyundai, and using the help of the president or the administration to secure these favors. This includes contracts for companies and foundations run by Ms. Soon-sil. In the proceedings before the National Assembly business leaders of the nation's largest companies have confirmed that they could not say no because of requests coming from the administration and the presidential office. About $69 million of donations to the foundations were made. The conglomerate Lotte donated $6 million for a sports complex to be built so that Ms. Soon-sil's company Blue K could run it. Prosecutors say these companies feared retaliation or tax investigations if they did not comply with requests from the presidential office. Other charges are about national intelligence and this relates to orders from president Park to an aide to give 47 classified documents to Ms. Choi Soon-sil between 2013 and 2016. Choi had no security clearance and the documents showed who would be appointed to top government positions including national intelligence director. The opposition in the National Assembly says this violates her constitutional obligations. The constitutional guarantees of freedom of the press were violated say opposition leaders because a newspaper's president was fired for covering Ms. Choi's activities. ...

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What the French take for granted today- 99% of the French people are covered by national health care- started when Charles De Gaulle faced rising scial discontent in the postwar period, and accepted a demand for worker protections. During the postwar period Frenchmen are paying higher taxes, but in the first 30 years because French salaries were growing fast this was not noticeable. With slow growth and rising healthcare costs its getting harder to increase these tax deductions for overall social security, which have reached one third of apaycheck at the low end, say for ataxi driver in Marseilles. So you have the government running deficits of $15 billion in 2004, even after increasing co-payments for routine care and doctors visits. Experts say this could reach $40 billion in 2010 and $90 billion in 2020. In 2007 health care cost the government $300 billion, or 11 % of GDP, (OECD numbers) and the bureaucracy and rules are getting more complicated. This 11% is well below what Americans pay for asystem that leaves out about 50 million people. France ranked 8th on the OECD list in cost per capita, the US at the top. And the French life expectancy is higher at 80.98 vs. 78.11 for the USA, higher by about 3 years. For this cost the system is cost effective according to the OECD. And the French find the American debate abouthealthcare public option "altogether surreal", as the newspaper Le Monde put it. To keep the system in viable form the government is increasing copayments, such as the decrease in reimbursements from 80% to 65% for routine care and doctors visits in 2004. As aresult the deficit dropped to $6 billion in 2008. ut the global economic crisis and rising unemployment has made this grow to estimated $13 billion for 2009. Measures under consideration: increasing hospitalization copayments to $28 a day from $22. To fill this substantial gap for routine care and other costs the French system has private insurance companies called mutuals that offer different policies. Which is where the Fench notion for equal treatment in health care gets distorted because different people can have different coverage. The French though compare their system to the British system and say theirs is not as nationalized as it appears and the Brisih one is much more so. The French system though supervised by the government is different from government run health care as in Britain. French people are free to choose their own doctor who is often a private practitioner. ...

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Areas for growth for the Indian drug Industry include the large growing domestic market, the outsourcing by US drug manufacturers, and sales in other developing countries of Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Analyst estimates are that India will spend $30 billion a year on drugs to improve care for its people in the next 10 years up from $8 billion today. And the distribution network is being developed by drug companies insdie India to reach more people. Also companies like Pfizer plan to double outsourcing of manufacturing drugs from 10% today to 20%.

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China's population is aging quickly as a result of the one child policy and better medical care. The population of people 15-59 years will decline by 65 million or 5.5% by 2030, according to UN projections. China's retirement age is surprisingly low 60 for men and 55 for women for civil servants and white collar workers. The population will age faster and at lower income levels than in South Korea or Taiwan.

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At one point the ruble reaches 80 to the dollar on Dec. 17, 2014, before settling at 60. It has lost more than half its value. The architect of Russia's finances in Putin's first and second terms, Alexei Kudrin, is critical of the way the central bank and the Putin administration is handling the economy and Russia's finances.

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The largest US military community of outside the US is Kaiserslautern 73 miles from Frankfurt in Germany. Kaiserslautern is 10 miles from the Ramstein Base which is where the US European Command is located. US president is considering reducing the US military presence in Germany, as it shifts responsibilities for European defence to Europe. Failure of the EU , Germany, Britain, Italy and France to support the US in its Iran effort to get nuclear materials transferred outside to Russia or some other country is leading to a rift in trans-atlantic relations. 

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An August survey by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, shows 40% of the country's manufacturers saying they would shift production and R&D facilities overseas if the yen remains at 85 to the dollar. It has dropped below that. Nissan will make 71% of its cars overseas in 2010, compared to 66% in 2009. Murata Manufacturing plans to double its foreign output to 30% by March 2013. By buying Dutch printer maker Oce NV in March, Canon Inc., saw its overseas output jump to 48% for the first half of 2010. Toyota is on track to produce 57% of its output overseas in 2010 , compared to 48% in 1995. The popular Prius will now be built at a plant in Bangkok, Thailand. Sony did 20% of its television manufacturing in Japan in 2010, it is aiming to do 50% in 2011. As a result Sony showed a profit for the April-June quarter, after 6 straight years of losses. Its also important to note that when inflation is taken into account the yen has not strengthened the way it appears, which reduces domestic pressures to dampen the yen's rise. Tohru Sasaki, head of foreign-exchange research at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, says that in inflation-adjusted terms, the yen is 30% below the rate it reached in April 1995. U.S. consumer prices have risen by 69% since 1990, in Japan the prices rose only 8.5% during the same period. In inflation adjusted terms the April 1995 exchange rate of 80 yen to the dollar would be 56 yen to the dollar today. Japan's exporters can also benefit from the fact that a large part of Japanese trade is denominated in yen- according to Japan's Ministry of Finance 48% of exports to Asia were paid for in yen in 2009. Like China and Germany, Japan remains highly dependent on exports for growth- which provide two thirds of its growth. The yen's strength increases the outflow of production facilities. In July 2010, 10.3 millon workers were employed in manufacturing in Japan, down from 12 million in 2002. Japan's unemployment rate was 5.6% in 2009....

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Germany stands out as an outlier in the percentage of cars imported into the US and not made in the USA- for VW this is 80% and for Mercedes 63%. Only Hyundai falls into this category with 65 percent and it announced a $21 billion plan for investment in the US including a $6.5 billion steel plant in Louisiana. All other foreign companies import about half or less of their sales into the US. VW and Mercedes could follow Hyundai in making the shift to making in the US. Honda makes 65% of its cars and Ford 80% in the USA. Peter Navarro, senior Trade adviser to DJT says-"foreign trade cheaters" countries  such as Germany and Japan, South Korea have turned America's manufacturing sector into a "lower wage assembly operation for foreign parts." Not said is that the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations, the "smart" economists at Ivy League universities, and America's finance sector looked the other way as this destroyed industry after industry and American manufacturing, destroying America's foundations, its broad middle class.     ...

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About 60% of Swiss voters in this Sunday's referendum on keeping Covid passes and restrictions in place favor keeping them. The referendum vote is likely to provide $6 billion for increasing nurses pay and benefits, which is a good thing as nurses are exhausted after 2 years of non stop work.  Vaccination rate is 65% of people vaccinated in Switzerland. In the US state of Michigan the vaccination rate is 58%, resulting in a surge in cases. Vaccination rates had stalled in Germany and Switzerland resulting in a surge in cases. New variant from South Africa adds to the problem of the unvaccinated in Europe and the US.

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Everyone over 50 years is to be given the vaccine in just a few months of 2021 by the NHS. A massive logistics and training effort is underway. The government changed the law to let student doctors, physiotherapists, and dental workers to give the vaccine. Retired doctors and nurses are called in. Britain has a war effort to counter antivaccine propaganda unlike other countries such as France and Germany. Compare that 79% of Britons are seeking the vaccine, 54% in France and 64% in the U.S. showing that the UK is doing a much better job. Vaccination starts next week for over 80 year old people. The world is watching.

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Argentina faces severe inflation of over 70%. The central bank raised its main interest rate to 75% to rein in inflation. In December 2022 the International Monetary Fund approved $6 billion, in a 30 month program that is expected to reach a total of $44 billion. The government of Pedro Sanchez has announced additional $10 billion in cost of living aid to take the total to $45 billion. It comes through reduced VAT and $200 one off payments to households making less than 27,000 euros a year.

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Grady Cash is an active runner at age 71. A sports hernia sidelined him at age 50 but he has found his way back into running. After a 2 year hiatus he returned to the track. He entered his first national track and field competition in 2004, and by 2015 eleven years later he was running in the 200 metres at the 2015 USATF Masters Indoor Track and Field Championships. Here he cam in last and had a revelation. Most of the runners were shaped differently than the long distance 1500 metres runners. These people were V shaped with tiny waists, broad shoulders and big leg muscles. From this he learned to do weightlifting at a local gym in Nashville and hired a trainer. After his retirement from financial planning he set up his own routine. He runs with a group at the Vanderbilt University track two afternoons a week ages from mid 20's to 76. A typical workout is eight repetitions of 200 metres that are sequentially faster. He does easy recovery runs on the trails. Mot important he tries to remain injury fee in the kind of routine he selects and listens to his body all the time not to overwork it and run  injury free the next day.  ...

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US DJT Tariffs impact 1 year later- global trade has held up well with US unemployment at 4.4% and economic growth at 2.1%. China imports down from 20% in 2016 to 10% ten years later in 2026. For DJT that was a promise kept leading to a sharp decoupling of the US economy from the Chinese economy that was leading to huge trade deficits of 1 trillion dollars. Too much of the world's supply chain was tied up with manufacturing in China. It got so bad under Reagan, the two Bushes, Clinton/Obama that the US and EU were facing deindustrialization with huge risks to the future of the US and Europe as industrial powers. 150 years of industrialization and scientific advancement, the great achievements of Europe and the United States since 1860's was going up in smoke over reckless policies of Republican and Democratic elites who gave little thought and barely understood the long run effects of their policies and textbook theories of the economy. Most economists from ivy league universities got it completely wrong. ...

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Biden as president for 2024 and the matter of age is the subject of this report in WSJ. For too long the press has looked at president Biden's age as drawback ignoring his vast experience, and not Trump's only 3 years younger with poor food and exercise habits and overweight, as pointed out by Duke University Prof. Frank Bruni in the NYT. Here the WSJ at last shows that half of Americans born in 1942 are alive, with many of them about 650,000 working, 18% more than a decade earlier, according to Census Bureau. The saying is that 80 years is the new 60, because of advances in medicine, given healthy habits and exercise. 

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The Laken Riley Act has as its sponsor Katie Britt of Alabama, and cosponsors Democrats Ruben Gallego of Arizona and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. It is expected to get over 60 votes 61-35 to overcome Senate rules and be on the presidents desk. No amendments were made.  It will require the Department of Homeland Security to arrest undocumented immigrants for theft related offenses and increase the power of states to challenge immigration decisions.

Kristi Noem at Homeland Security and Tom Homan Border Chief will lead the push on the Border with DJT declaring a national emergency that will generate funds from the Defense Department.

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The vote in the Senate was 67 to 27 to move forward with the $95 billion aid package to Ukraine and Israel. The bill has $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine, and about $8 billion in economic assistance. $14.1 billion to Israel and $10 billion for civilians in conflict zones. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leads a determined group of 18 Republicans in the US Senate that support efforts by Majority Leader Schumer to get a bill for Ukraine Israel Aid passed in the next few days. This would also include economic aid for Ukraine and humanitarian aid in the Gaza conflict. Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska says that deterrence is not divisible, American credibility is not divisible." This comes as former president Trump opposes the passage of such aid in Congress. This report says the former president says America's role should be only transactional, and to Russia the NYT reports he says he would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. President Schulz of Germany met with president Biden at the White House this week. After passage in the Senate it faces a challenge in getting enough Republicans to support passage in the House. ...

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The Impossible City Paris in the 21st Century by Simon Kuper is reviewed in the Washington Post. It shows the incredible revival of the French capital and its suburbs as France has done an exceptional job of preparing the city for the Olympics. No other city has done so much for its population. Martin Gelin says after visiting the city now compared to 4 years back- parking spaces have become cafe patios, heavily trafficked boulevards bike lanes, new bookstores and galleries popping up everywhere, the city building sports and cultural facilities in neglected neighborhoods. Attention to social housing and huge expansion of public transit. Car traffic halved so air is cleaner than in 1990's. Paris is different from New York and London- it is avoiding "plutocratisation" of the city so that the best spaces do not go to banking and finance. In Paris the social housing units have tripled since 1990's including in 13th, 19th and 20th arrondisements. Paris does not want to become a city of millionaires,  tourists and poor people like San Francisco, says Kuper. Anne Hidalgo, Mayor of Paris wants 30 percent of all Parisian homes to be social housing by 2035, and another 10% as affordable housing (with rents  at least 20% below market rates). Grand Paris project will create 68 new subway stations so all of Metropolitan Paris is within 10 minute walk to a subway station. Diversity can be seen and it creates a healthy human experience in cities so that people are less likely to act with prejudice. ...

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Because India is still largely rural with about 65% of the population in the countryside rural poverty is a matter of huge importance. In a country of a billion people this is easily about 600-650 million people the vast majority of the world's poor. Though low inflation in agricultural produce and in agricultural wages have increased concern for rural poverty in India there are changes in multiple dimensions that have raised the quality of living in a big way. There is a major thrust in government programs directed at multiple levels for clean India, housing healthcare, cooking gas, electricity, banking, in the rural villages. About 4 million homes are built annually with government assistance and investment in rural programs has more than doubled in the last 7 years.  The National Food Security programs NFGSA guarantees purchases of rice and wheat at very low prices -set at 2 rupees per kilogram of wheat and  3 rupees per kilogram of rice or about $0.03 per kilogram.  This reduces the pressure on migration to cities making cities less inhabitable and finding it hard to cope as in countries like Indonesia, Philippines and in Africa. It gives more time for urbanization to take place in a better way as more resources and infrastructure is created for urbanization. Some states in India are about 50% urbanized with Tamilnadu (Madras or Chennai),  and Kerala (Cochin, Thiruvanathapuram) in the south and Maharashtra (Bombay or Mumbai) and Gujarat (Ahmedbad) in the north west, are at about 50% urbanization rate. The low inflation rate for agricultural wages affecting farm incomes combined with contributions by rural people to complement government contributions for housing, healthcare,  reduces the mount of money available for consumer spending in rural areas, affecting the economy. A problem in the short run, but with synergistic changes across multiple dimensions pushing the country forward across urban and rural areas. With the huge urban infrastructure spending increases creating more space for economic growth across the country. There is a general sense that for development a multi dimensional approach is needed, and a rising tide lift all boats as India urbanizes like China has done in the last 20 years. ...

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Oil tanker hit off Dubai port carrying 2 million barrels of oil to China from Kuwait and Saudi on March 30 2026. This is the first big hit by a drone or missile of a ship carrying over 1 million barrels of oil. Crew of 24 was unhurt and the ship survived the hit by a drone with no oil leaking into the waters of the Persian Gulf. China gets 90% of its oil imports through the Straits of Hormuz. Which is why DJT says when this is about keeping shipping lanes open for oil transit it makes no sense that a Nation like the US that is self sufficient in oil and gas should have to take on the responsibilities of keeping  international shipping lanes open without any help from China- or Japan and South Korea. It is one reason for the US president's critical remarks on lack of such help, particularly from allies from the European continent.