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Turkey's trade deficit increased to $10.2 billion in June 2011, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. This is almost twice the trade deficit only one year ago in June 2010 when it was $5.7 billon. Imports went up 42%, and exports showed annual increase of 19%. Warnings of a "hard landing" were made by Standard & Poor's. Turkey's economy is on a unsustainable path with the economy growing 11% in the first quarter. The IMF forecast is for the economy to grow at 4.6% in 2011, compared to 8.9% in 2010, which suggests a sharp slowing down of growth for the remainder of the year. Concern is also rising because Turkey has fallen behind in competitiveness. The manufacturing sector depends on large inputs of imported raw materials and semifinished products. A breakdown of the trade figures show 71% of the $10.2 billon deficit was from intermediary goods including raw materials, and 28% from capital and consumption goods. Efforts to reduce the current account deficit were expected by analysts after the recent presidential elections, but this has not happened. It appears that the Turkish government is taking a wait and see attitude for possible sluggish growth worldwide and not taking actions of its own that are necessary....

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Coronavirus infections peak in Spain by April 4 and the number of deaths at 809 in one day is a drop from earlier in the week. Madrid is hit hard. The number of infections in one day dropped from 7472 to 7026 on Saturday April 4. Officials are looking for ways to get masks for all citizens as a way to prepare for an eventually ease restrictions. It is virtually impossible to get masks in Spain. Lockdown has been extended to April 25. 

Masks are mandatory in Austria, Czech Republic, Israel and Turkey.

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A Trump ally, Senator Graham says president Trump is going to slow the withdrawal from Syria that was planned. He says the president learned from his trip to Iraq first hand about conditions in the region. He is now consulting allies about how best to accomplish the withdrawal gradually without the risks involved for the Kurds, Turkey and problems in Syria and Iraq that the U.S. has experienced.

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The Muslim Brotherhood is thrust into a critical role as economic policymaker after winning the parliamentary elections in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood's foreign policy advisor, Essam El-Haddad, says it gave the IMF its tentative approval for a $3.2 billion loan to Egypt. Haddad says it was a very, very short time for the learning process to occur about the economic issues facing Egypt and the IMF. Foreign investment peaked in 2007 at $13.7 billion. It is now a small fraction of this and tourism earnings have declined to a third of what they were before. The Brotherhood cites the example of Turkey where the Islamist Justice and Development Party formed the government in 2002. At the time Turkish inflation was at 55%, the currency Turkish Lira had lost 51% of its value and GDP fell by 5.7%. Turkey has seen high economic growth in the last decade.

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Brazil's debt at 57% of GDP which is not likely to decline in 2014, is a concern for analysts at Moody's. Heavy spending and lower tax revenues with high interest rates will increase the deficit to 3.7% in 2014 from 2.48% in 2012, according to central bank estimates. Inflation is about 5.98%. Trade surplus is lower at about $2.6 billion for 2013. Brazil's foreign reserves are much higher than Argentina at $359 billion, ten times short term debt, Argentina at 109% of short term debt and Turkey at 84% of short term debt- which protects Brazil compared to its reserves in the 1997 financial crisis.

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During a trip to Italy for a G-7 foreign ministers meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson makes a symbolic stop at a memorial in Lucca, where 560 men, women and children were massacred by the Nazis in World War II. Tillerson said at the memorial that "we rededicate ourselves to holding to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents anywhere in the world." Also present at the memorial were Frederica Mogherini, the European Union's chief of foreign policy, and Susanne Wasum-Rainer, German ambassador to Italy. British foreign secretary Boris Johnson said Europe supported the U.S. A meeting on Syria is being added to the G-7 meetings which includes the foreign ministers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, United Arab Emirates.

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The move by Houthi rebels- belonging to an offshoot of Shiite Islam- from the north of Yemen to Sanaa and then to Taiz and Aden in the south of Yemen draws a Saudi response. Yemen borders Saudi Arabia in the south. The Saudis launch airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. The Persian Gulf states, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Pakistan support the Saudis, creating the potential for a wider sectarian conflict in the region. The withdrawal of U.S. influence in the region under the Obama administration leads to the collapse of the Arab Spring, the Saudis pursuing an independent foreign policy, the rise of Islamic State militants, Turkey following its own policy, emboldening Iran in extending its influence in the Middle East, and creating a situation of wider sectarian Sunni-Shiite conflict throughout the Middle East. It creates a situation in which the U.S. is involved on the Iranian side in support of the government in Baghdad supported by Iran against Islamic State militants, and at the same time on the side of the Sunni coalition in Yemen as the U.S. withdraws from drone bases in Yemen. At the same time the Obama administration finds itself distancing itself from Israel as it negotiates alongside France and Britain with Iran on a nuclear agreement....

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The lack of U.S. leadership and slow response by the Obama administration to the rapidly developing situation in the region risks spillover effects from Syria to affect the entire Middle East. Russia's stakes are minimal in the region because it is simply trying to retain some of its old influence in the region, yet it is having an outsized influence in the region through its early military assistance to the Assad regime. The stakes are much higher for the U.S. because of the decade spent and resources invested in Iraq, higher for Iraq with its need for civil harmony between Shiite and Sunni communities, for Turkey with its large Kurdish minority and flow of refugees from the border with Syria, for Saudi Arabia as a defender of Sunni interests. Without active U.S. leadership the situation is allowed to drift and young people of the Free Syrian Army are basically taking on the bulk of the role of resolving the situation. France's Sarkozy and Britain's Cameron offered this kind of leadership in Libya as Libya's young people struggled to resolve the situation there. ...

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The near collapse of Iran's state owned gas company following stricter Western sanctions and withdrawal of Total and other oil companies. Iran sits on top of the second largest gas reserves in the world but is able to export gas only to Turkey and Azerbaijan. Qatar which borders one of Iran's large gas fields is developing its side of the field with technology and investment from Shell and other foreign oil companies. The CEO of the company, Hamid Reza Araghi, told the Mehr News Agency that the company had declared bankruptcy, with debt of about $4 billion. Gas revenues have dropped to about $10 million a day and the company suffers from mismanagement.

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Ben Hubbard of NYT looks at the difficult situation in the Turkish economy in 2023 with high inflation and the costs of rebuilding after the earthquake. 

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This WSJ Exclusive report shows the lives of Afghan officials in large residences in Florida, California, and the Emirates after they fled the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Mr. Ashraf Ghani who headed the government fled the country early with the help of Turkey says this report in the WSJ, leading to the collapse of Kabul. The US sacrificed many lives and trillions of dollars to support different regimes in Afghanistan under presidents Bush and Obama. It was only under the Trump and Biden administrations that the US conducted a swift and complete withdrawal. Mr. Trump made the issue of wasted billions of dollars in the war a major issue of his campaign, in addition to the issue of technology and capital going to China with offshore movement of American manufacturing. The pandemic has made the job of returning American manufacturing to America and investment in infrastructure, ease of living, good healthcare and education, even more critical for America and the American people. ...

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Roland Nelles gives 6 reasons why chancellor Merkel is likely to run for chancellor in 2017 and do well. Nelles says the alternative is a Greens, Left party, SPD coalition as in Berlin. But the rest of Germany is too conservative and the very idea of that coalition could bring conservatives together behind Merkel, including the CSU. It would give CDU voters second thoughts about switching to the anti-immigrant AfD party. Also important he says is that the immediacy of the refugee issue could fade as the German government better handles the refugee situation, including security, housing and integration. And as the agreement with Turkey is holding for controlling flow of refugees and turning them back. Also compared to SPD Merkel is still 8-10 points ahead in polls today says Nelles, so that there are still many Merkel supporters. In addition to what Nelles says, Strack in DW.com points out how Merkel's openness even showing emotions sometimes, about how the refugee crisis caught her and the German government unprepared, could help her in coming months. ...

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Jackson Diehl, deputy editorial page editor of the Washington Post, says its hard not to conclude that Obama is really not engaged with the struggle for democracy and democratic process in the countries of the Middle East and the Arab World. His voice is only heard sporadically, and is missing altogether at crucial times, as the people of Egypt, Libya, and other countries express their democratic aspirations. This has been the case from the beginning of this struggle and continues today. He cites an Arab opinion poll, from Shibley Telhami of the University of Maryland with Zogby International, which shows a positive view of Obama at 34%, compared with 39% in 2009. When asked which countries have played a positive role, France and Turkey are given first place and the U.S. is close to China. This is because France's Sarkozy and Turkey have been actively engaged, and Obama has been silent for most of the time. Diehl says most Egyptians he talked to in Cairo in a recent visit, think that Obama's focus is on going along with the military and Israel. ...

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The Iranian view on the negotiations to resolve questions about Iran's nuclear program with the U.S. and European countries in Istanbul, Turkey. This view is from Ali Akbar Salehi, Foreign Minister of Iran.

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Crude oil reaches a high of $90.46 on the exchange pushed higher by sanctions by Bush on the Revolutionary Corps and some Banks in Iran, the threat to the oil pipelines from Kirkuk in Iraqi Kurdistan to Ceyhan in Turkey with its possible entry of Turkey into Iraqi Kurdistan, and statements to by the Secretary General of OPEC El-Badri that OPEC has no price band or target and is not worried by prices at $90 per barrel. Also aggravating the situation is lower oil inventories as winter approaches with IEA estimating a drop of 33 million barrels between June and September, contrasting with increases the past 5 years as Fall approaches.

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Compared to the situation in North Africa in 2016 with emigration to Europe and the migrant crisis happening without any preparation to prevent it in 2015-2016, Germany and France are acting in coordination with Russia and Turkey, Saudis, UAE, to provide stability to the region. Angela Merkel will host leaders Macron, U.S. Secretary of State  Pompeo, and representatives of foreign powers in Berlin to work out a deal for disengagement of foreign powers. Turkey and the United Nations support a government of National Accord in Tripoli which controls the west of Libya, and a Libyan-American Mr. Haftar has a militia that controls the south and east with the help of Egypt, UAE, and Russia. Earlier the U.S. under president Trump had distanced itself from the region, but Mr. Trump and his advisors now see the need to engage in the region to ensure stability, and support the Europeans in the effort to prevent the large scale emigration that threatens European unity. Europe following the 2015 Merkel migrant crisis is acting with the policy of heading off both wars, terrorism and economic dislocation that fuels emigration right at the points of origin, before it even starts. This shows that the French after action in Ivory Coast and Mali and the Germans with aid to Africa are remaining involved in development and stability programs in Africa, lessons learned from 2015. The goal of the Berlin meetings is to arrange high level agreement for foreign powers to withdraw from destabilizing the Arab regions in North Africa particularly Libya by supplying weapons and support to quarreling factions. ...

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Adly Mansour, a judge with the Supreme Constitutional Court in Egypt, is appointed by the military as president of Egypt. He was to take office as Chief Justice before the June 2013 protests in Egypt intervened to delay this. On July 3, 2013 he was sworn in as president before the Supreme Court. Mansour is one of two judges selected by president Morsi. He is a graduate of Cairo University, and studied public affairs and management in Paris before joining the judicial sytem in 1977. His decisions as judge went against both Mubarak and Morsi, showing his independent position as a judge on the Supreme Court. The judiciary is now taking an important role in Egypt similar to the role it has played in Pakistan, another Muslim country adopting democratic forms of governance after decades of coups and military rule since the 1950's. The larger Muslim countries in the Middle East, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, and Egypt are faced with the challenge of balancing the demands of modernization with tradition, the demands of educated urban population with the more devout Islamist rural population, and creating stable transitions in democratically elected government. Islamists such as president Erdogan in Turkey who described western democratic forms of government as a train to get to a destination have still to take in to account the need to incorporate opposing secular views in governance. In this sense Turkey is not the model for governance as it once appeared for Egypt, Pakistan Iran and other Muslim countries. A new consensus in society needs to develop that respects all aspects of democratic governance including respect for the role of the opposition in a democracy, the role of an independent impartial judiciary, and the role of independent media. This will take time to develop just as it took time to develop in Europe and North America....

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Though the numbers are relatively small about 450 migrants crossing in small boats to Britain, the strong response shows the political sensitivity to border crossing in Britain. Britain called on the Royal Navy to patrol the waters in the English Channel. This comes at a time when the issue of Brexit is dividing Britons. The Brexit referendum Leave vote benefitted from pictures of the migrant crossings into Europe from the Mediterranean. Placed on buses these posters were very effective in promoting the Leave campaign, even though at the time  the migration shown taking place was not into Britain but on the borders of Turkey, Greece, Hungary and Germany. 

 

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Harney of the NYT provides a brief description of the differences between the Sunni and Shiite sects of Islam. Shiites are based mainly in Iran and Iraq. Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Bangladesh, follow the Sunni sect in Islam.

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Gap Inc. plans to open 2 stores in Beijing and Shanghai in late 2010. It is part of an expansion strategy that covers markets in Hong Kong, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Romania. The stores in China will be company owned.

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Experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program describe what to look for and in what time frame in the 2012 negotiations between Iran and the U.S. and other European countries in Istanbul, Turkey over Iran's nuclear program.

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Individual investors reacted strongly to declining prospects for emerging markets with slowing growth, depreciating currencies, corruption and political uncertainty in 2013. As of the beginning of June, retail investors pulled $18.1 billion from emerging market bond funds, about one third of the amount that went in to emerging markets since the financial crisis in 2007, according to fund tracker EPFR Global. Institutional investors have pulled out less, about $9.3 billion, or 10% of their investments in emerging markets bonds since 2007. A similiar pattern is seen for investment in the stock markets of emerging market countries. The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary expansion helped pull more money into emerging markets such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey. As the Fed shifts away from these policies in 2013 emerging market countries have large current account deficits and less money to finance imports and debt.

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The U.S. government has said that there is enough evidence to start an investigation on the matter of imports of tart cherries from Turkey. Tart cherries are popular in agriculture near Traverse City, Michigan on the Great Lakes. About 300 million pounds were priced at revenue of $106 million in 2014 and today are priced lower to bring in $56 million. Prices dropped in 2019 from 2018 by over 30% with subsidized Turkish agricultural exports. After years of difficulty getting government to listen U.S. producers can bring fair competition issues to Washington D.C. The larger sweet cherry agricultural region is in Washington state with about $600 million for 345,000 tons in cherries. Michigan processors that pit, freeze and dry the tart cherries  normally destroy or freeze a percentage of the crop to maintain a stable selling price. A flood of imports changes price mechanism from operating for farmers.

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France and Algeria see improving relations as a necessity and Macron visits Algeria on the 60th anniversary of its independence. About half a million civilians and soldiers died in the Algerian civil war that ended in 1962, 400,000 Algerians. Algerian estimates are higher. It was a trauma for France and for Algeria. De Gaulle pushed through Algerian independence against fierce opposition by 1962 using a referendum, with many assasination attempts on his life. Macron called for "looking back at the past with humility," to look back at the history long before the arrival of the French, and archives from both nations will be put together for an objective account of what happened. Macron has said that Algerians simply focused their hatred on French occupation since 1830 and Turkey whitewashed its own occupation of Algeria before 1830. The Ottoman Turks set up the Regency of Algiers in 1525 after defeating Spanish-Moroccan armies and Turks controlled the region till the French took over in 1830.  Macron says Algeria's identity as a separate nation was set only after French rule. ...

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Fisher and Taub of the NYT look at the populist politics in Europe and the U.S. following the French election first round. Trump won in the U.S. with the deep polarization of politics in the U.S.- leading to the Republican Party to decide to support him to avoid the result of four more years of an administration led by Democrats, and with the support of discontented voters in midwestern states with falling living standards. The situation in Europe is different as the mainstream parties have united in the past to block populist politicians with negative messages on immigration and an open economy. This happened in the Dutch election, by the co-opting of the nationalist message of populist politicians by mainstream parties and mainstream politicians, and is likely to continue in the French and German elections in 2017. Fisher and Taub point to another development that is happening- shifting the debate to ethnonationalism vs. open economies, which has happened with Brexit and the UK Independence Party. They cite the 2015 British elections in which UKIP won 13 percent of the vote, as having influenced prime minister Cameron to call for a referendum on Brexit, in a effort to revive the fortunes of the Conservative Party. In the end this resulted in the 52 percent vote supporting Brexit.  Another way of looking at the populist movement is that with Trump it called attention to trade and the way working class Americans were being marginalized especially in the industrial midwest. With this problem being addressed in a Trump administration and a reviving economy, the mainstream parties have an opportunity to reassert themselves. In Europe the AfD called attention to immigration issues, and the Merkel coalition government of CDU and SPD by making changes such as the deal with Turkey, and returning economic refugees, is able to assert the role of mainstream parties. In Britain the situation could be a result of a brash decision by a Conservative prime minister Cameron, in making a bad miscalculation, that has put Britain on a course that is likely not in its best interest. The Brexit referendum yes vote galvanized opinion by showing an endless stream of refugees in their advertising- a development following the opening of borders by Germany and Austria to address the plight of Syrian war refugees. That situation has passed and is unlikely to happen again as both the SPD and CDU parties in Germany have pointed out that this was a one time situation that they responded to following the exodus from Keleti rail station in Hungary under special circumstances. With this kind of perspective populist politics can be seen as reflecting other voices in a democracy, that are heard and responded to, yet keeping the sense of balance and openness necessary in today's global economy and societies. This is also the perception of Germany's outgoing popular president Gauck in his final address, pointing to the need to listen to other voices in a democracy, and the need for openness in a democracy, as well as democracies always in the process of Becoming and evolving to adapt to new situations in economy, society, and politics.     ...