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Timothy Rooks in DW.com points out rightly that it will be how well Macron grasps the opportunity to turnaround the economy within the EU that will make a difference. France needs some of the changes Macron is proposing because it has one of the largest state sectors of western economies, and private industry needs to be revitalized to generate the jobs to reduce youth unemployment. A cut in the corporate tax to 25% from 33% would be in line with Britain, Germany and other countries. Some cuts in spending 60 billion euros over 5 years, and 50 billion euro stimulus package. The wealth tax would be retained, and the 35 hour work week.  He has opposing views on 35 hour week but now will focus on flexibility on overtime, capping severance pay and investing in education, job training, other ways of reviving the labor markets to get hiring started again and cut into 25% unemployment for persons under age 25. He also plans to follow the German model of letting companies deal with unions at the local level, at the company level, not only at a national level. Close cooperation with Germany and the confidence of French industry will be a plus as he works to revive the French economy, with the conviction that this will also be a project to fulfill the hope of young people for jobs, and a way to reduce the number who have turned to extremist parties in France. ...

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Francois Hollande, Socialist candidate for president in France, has led the Socialist party for many years. He started his career as a junior politician in the Mitterand government, and regards Mitterand his mentor. Another mentor is Jacques Delours, who was president of the European Commission. He has many years of training, and has persevered thorughout with a certain sense of humility in the midst of colleagues and politicians in France with larger egos. That inner strength and courage has emerged in the recent campaign appearances and the final debate with Sarkozy in April 2012. He has shown this in the recent campaign by not overstating expectations as he looks at the long term, and at the same time not understating when courage demanded a stronger statement. He has taken timely and effective positions in the current debate of austerity vs growth, or growth coupled with restraint in fiscal spending vs austerity, that is raging in Europe. He was quick to call the situation in Greece, a failure of governance in Europe, as well as a failure of governance in Greece. With the new voices of Premier Monti in Italy and ECB president Draghi from Italy, pushing for growth coupled with fiscal responsibility, a president Hollande in France, would add another voice to European aspirations for growth in the debate with Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats in Germany. ...

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Rappaport of the NYT asks how it is possible that the U.S. Treasury is critical of the EU Commission's ruling that Apple pay back $13 billion in taxes because of its low tax rate of .005% in Europe, when Treasury is strongly critical of tax avoidance. The negligible tax by Ireland, base of Apple operations, is seen as a state subsidy not available to competitors. It also, as the EU Commission says, does not correspond to economic reality because the revenues are mostly made outside Ireland. An arrangement that is basically a strategy of tax avoidance. Today the leading candidates for president, Trump and Clinton, the major parties, and Congress, all are critical of tax avoidance strategies which deprive Treasury of much needed revenues. Restoring upward mobility is a priority today and programs to provide tution free access to public colleges, healthcare access, and infrastructure development, require public funding. Then why is the U.S.Treasury critical of the EU ruling? It is because Treasury sees this as money that should be coming to Treasury not the EU. However Treasury has failed to make this clear. The Financial Accountability and Corporate Transparency Coalition's Clark Gascoigne, calls it very ironic. And other experts say the money would not be coming to the U.S. anyway unless a low tax rate induces Apple to repatriate profits to the U.S. One expert calls it hypocritical. Senator Schumer says he agrees with Paul Ryan that tax legislation for a low tax rate for repatriation of profits back to the U.S. should be the next step, so that an infrastructure fund can be setup. Senator Levin and transparency advocates sees the EU action as normal and to be expected, as the anti-establishment sentiment today comes from such dealings that create the impression that the system is rigged in favor of some corporations. ...

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The IMF promised to increase the aid package to Greece from $45 billion to $120 billion. Together with aid from the EU and Germany the total would come to $160 billion. This after the markets responded negatively to efforts by Greece to obtain funds. With the junk rating for Greek bonds Greece is effectively cut off from the markets and it makes it increasingly difficullt to roll over debt including $8 billion euros due May 19, 2010. Equally significant are the rumblings being heard about Spain, which is a much larger country than Greece, and an economy 5 times as large. An IMF loan to Spain would have to be significantly larger.

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The steep decline in popularity of French president Emmanuel Macron in the period of one year. With the yellow vest protests on the economic insecurity of struggling families, Macron's efforts to bring in business friendly policies as a change agent are itself out of step with the times and with France in the provinces and small towns, as pointed out in the New York Times and Times of London analysis of the situation in France today.

As pointed out in the analysis Macron's base itself is small and its anti-institutional posture rejecting conventional politics itself has given momentum to the current yellow vest protests about economic insecurity of struggling families. The support for this comes from all parts of society and single political party, without nationalism, race or migration as factors at all, and comes so soon in one year from the time that Macron emerged with his own movement rejecting the institutional structure.  

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The eurozone GDP shrank at an annualized 5.9% for 4th quarter 2008.

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The pact of competitiveness is designed to bring a closer integration of the eurozone. It includes proposals for increasing the retirement age to 67, ending indexation of wages to inflation, and involvement of other eurozone countries in controlling out of control deficits in some countries. Germany sees this as necessary to convince the German public that financial responsibility is being exercized by countries in budget crises that get help from Germany. This may buy time but it does not come to terms with the reality of Greece being insolvent already, which may be true also for Ireland and Portugal. Some experts see the need for debt restructuring, and the need to start early, especially if Germany is unwilling to make large transfers to these countries.

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A proposal to transfer debt in excess of 60% of GDP of all eurozone countries into a single fund to be paid off in 25 years is gaining attention in Germany. It is seen as finding acceptance with Germany's Constitutional Court. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, says eurobonds are unconstitutional in Germany. Germany calls instead for greater European integration and transfer of powers from sovereign governments to a European banking supervisory authority. In early June 2012 discussions continued in Berlin between Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission and Angela Merkel of Germany. The German position is summarized in the words of German finance minister Schauble, when he said that Germany could not hand over its credit card to other countries.

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During a public dialogue during the federal government's open day German Chancellor Scholz takes time to go over the origins of the war in Europe as he understands it. Of Russia acting "clearly with the intention of conquering its neighboring country," in an imperialist manner. Here is what he said- On Nato During talks before the war started in February when he met Putin in Moscow Scholz assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO "in the next 30 years." NATO was never a threat to Russia even though Putin says NATO's increasing eastward expansion was to the detriment of Russia's interests. On the origins of the war in Europe- Scholz says Putin launched the war for "completely absurd reasons." During his talks with Putin for example he says Putin told him that Belarus and Ukraine should not be independent states. "This is a war that Putin, Russia, started, clearly with the intention of conquering its neighboring country. I think that was the original goal." "Putin actually had the idea of swiping a felt-tip pen across the European landscape and then saying, 'This is mine and this is yours.' " Something Germany could not accept. Scholz condemns Putin's imperialism. He compares Russia's actions to the early days of imperialism. Scholz was reported to be reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms book Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy in Europe from 1453 to the Present, before the war started. Simms shows a Europe that fought intermittent wars for supremacy between European powers Spain, Britain, Dutch, French, Germany, Austria- Hungary, Russia, Sweden over most of the period 1450 to 1950. The last part of the period was marked from 1850 to 1900 by an openly imperialist land grab for territory in Africa and Asia between Britain, France, Japan and Germany.  The period 1950 to 2000 marked by the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union and China.    On planning for the war in advance- DW.com reports that Olaf Scholz is convinced that Putin planned this war long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. On the future of the war- Scholz says he will not end the dialogue with Putin. Scholz and Germany, Biden and the US want to show that the imperialist type of expansion into neighboring states is no longer accepted, not for Russia or China. Scholz says Russia is currently engaged in gaining territory in eastern Ukraine, but it is not certain that it will stay that way, so giving in is not a sensible strategy.  Ukraine needs the Black Sea ports and the area around Kherson on the Dnieper river to maintain its economy through exports of foodgrains. There is international consensus that these exports are essential to most of Africa and other parts of the world. The war in the remaining part of 2022 into the winter is being fought in this area. Another area of international consensus is that of the refugees mostly women and children in other parts of eastern Europe, and the displaced people within Ukraine moving from the east and south to the west. For the first time the US and Germany are providing Ukraine with the air defense systems that it needs to protect refugees, something that was missing for the many early months of the war leading to millions of refugees inside and outside Ukraine.       ...

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In a speech at the Conservative Party Fall conference British prime minister Theresa May positions her party as an advocate for the working class against establishment views. She was critical of smug views that the current situation was acceptable for working class families concerned about immigration and jobs. She also pointed out that the policies of central banks including the Bank of England hurt working class families and savers." She pointed out the development that has also happened in the U.S. economy and other European countries as the Federal Reserve and the ECB cut rates to near zero. "People with assets have got richer. People without them have suffered. People with mortgages have found their debts cheaper. People with savings have found themselves poorer." Her response she said would be to "put the government at the service of those who found themselves poorer as a result of monetary policy." This follows May's first speech at 10 Downing Street where she referred to "the burning injustice."  ...

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Steven Erlanger describes the mood in France as it faces problems of improving competitiveness in a rapidly moving global economy. A sense that the actions of the Hollande government will not be enough to tackle the need for deeper changes.

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People in Poland, Hungary, and other countries in Central Europe took out mortgages in Swiss Francs. The jump in the value of the Franc means their payments go up increasing economic pain in these countries. In Hungary the government of Viktor Orban has converted most franc loans into local currency forint loans at favorable rates and this will now be seen as a remarkably positive move. Poland has a growing economy compared to Hungary with borrowers in francs with higher incomes than Hungary, yet with 37% of the homeowner loans in Swiss Francs political parties are looking for support before elections offering to shift these loans into the local currency. Banks in Poland are well capitalized and are not likely to be seriously affected.

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Faces in the continuing foreclosure crisis in Spain in 2014 include Xacobo Rodriguez and his mother in Madrid. Foreclosures continued at a high rate in Spain into 2014. The Bank of Spain reports that 38,961 primary residence homes were foreclosed in 2013, a decline of only 1% from 2012. If second residences are included the number of foreclosed house increased by 11% in 2014. This is six years into the housing crisis in Spain with no end in sight. The government has declared a 2 year moratorium on eviction of families that meet hardship criteria- a member of household disabled, expired unemployment benefits, very young children. A Social Housing Fund with 6000 units which provide places to live was created but only a small number of units are given out so far. The social advocacy groups say not enough is being done. The government points out that 90% of houses taken by banks were unoccupied at the time. Bank Association spokesperson says there is an understanding of the depth of the crisis with 6 million people out of work, that action is taken to reduce the stress on homeowners. And point to the data showing only 1% of homes were taken by banks in 2013 of the 6 million home mortages outstanding, with one third of these done with an agreement to have debts erased for the homeowners. Women and immigrants are affected to a larger degree, according to Human Rights Watch. Social housing in Spain is only about 2% of the housing stock making things more difficult, by comparison it is 17% in France, 21% in the UK, 35% in the Netherlands, according to Human Rights Watch. Meanwhile the Spanish government of the Partido Popular under Mr Rajoy, continues a policy of trying to be responsive to the homeowner crisis, and at the same time helping the banking system recover following a $56 billion bailout loan taken by Spain from the European Union. ...

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A report on the Status of German Unity from the German cabinet, says the eastern part of Germany, formerly the German Democratic Republic, suffers from a declining population and could have benefitted from the addition of young people as immigrants. As it stands the area with the lowest number of refugees or immigrants is where most of the xenophobia anti-immigrant sentiment exists.  It says the eastern part of the country including cities like Dresden need to develop a more receptive culture to attract young people for economic progress.