LyrArc Article Gist
Online shift hit Macy's hard. It is now closing 150 stores by 2026. Macy will concentrate its resources on its remaining 350 locations including the Bloomingdale stores and BlueMercury stores. Salez stagnant at $23 billion profits down by 91% to $101 million. Workforce cuts of 3.5% planned and no plans to sell the company to venture capitalists.

LyrArc Article Gist
Tesla's autopilot system was engaged when a fatal crash happened on Highway 101 near Mountain View in California in March 2018. The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating the second such incident since 2016.

LyrArc Article Gist
US president Trump calls for ending the Debt Ceiling on December 18, 2024.

LyrArc Article Gist
A Taiwan based correspondent of BBC News reflects on how China has changed during the Singles day 11.11 on November 11. This is a huge promotion event for online retailer Alibaba. It was originally a day used by male college students without girlfriends, showing with the 11 their desire to have relationships. Alibaba has used it as a promotional day for online sales with discounts of 30% or more. About halfway though the day sales were larger than 2016 sales on Nov. 11.  Many retailers from different countries took part. and the sales reached $25 billion. Many people used it to buy household supplies for 6 months using the discounts, or apparel and clothing which could be delivered to their home. The old ideas of frugality are now replaced with a willingness to try new ways to live in a different period.  Use of mobile phones for ordering is widespread as a new urban middle class in China shifts to a materialist culture of buying on credit.

LyrArc Article Gist
According to a study by Goldman Sachs, an supported by other experts, the USA is only half way through the housing crisis. Goldman estimates that there will be a 18-20% correction overall with about 11-13% further price declines expected. In some states a decline of 25% is expected. These are states that saw huge runup in prices- Virginia and Maryland, Florida, California and Arizona, and New Jersey.

LyrArc Article Gist
Hon Kongers have tripled the amount of renminbi they hold to about US$11 billion because of the clear path of yuan appreciation signaled by the government. It has appreciated 7.1% so far this year with the Chinese government controlling the changes in the exchange rate. Forward markets price in another 4.4% gain in the next 12 months. The flood of outside money is why the Chinese reserves have grown by $1.6 billion a day in 2008. At the end of June it stood at $1.81 trillion up 18% from the beginning of the year even though the trade surplus is down 12% from a year earlier and Shanghai's index of domestically owned stocks is down 49% this year. In the first half of 2008 analysts estimate about $50-$200 billion were brought into China even with the tight currency controls. All this new money creates inflationary pressures in China and the central bank knows that it poses risks for the financial system but China is also intesrested in maintaining growth so it may not want to kill this inflow altogether and some of it may go to finance investment in the country....

LyrArc Article Gist
The large Soroka hospital in Beersheba with 1200 beds in southern Israel for 1 million people is hit by Iranian missile June 18, 2025. This marks another turning point in the war with attacks on civilian targets. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Morgan McSweeney acquired power as an organizer removing Corbynite left politicians from the Labour party. He is from County Cork, Ireland, his father an IRA courier, who left Ireland to get a politics and marketing degree from Middlesex University. He helped Labour politicians in London during the Corbyn years and settled on Keir Starmer as the candidate for a shift to the center in politics. There was something strange about Labour's win in 2024 as it got only 34% of the vote and still a large majority. It now appears that this was a highly flawed win, as Starmer was never able to take positions on major issues without depending on McSweeney for advice and backtracking. Worse 50% of Labour's vote disappeared in 2026 polls by February hardly 2 years after the win in 2024, as the support McSweeney helped organize had no depth of conviction- most of it to Liberals and Greens under Polanski. The result is that even the Guardian is disappointed and says McSweeney installed Starmer as PM, and then made him "the most unpopular PM in history." Net favorability in Feb 2026 is -57 similar to Sunak of Conservatives in June 2024. A 75% unfavorable rating in Jan 2026. And 14 points below the Labour party in "like" ratings. Only 18% are favorable for Starmer. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
To get an idea of Indian potential growth rate one can see the potential of states like Bihar and Maharashtra. Bihar state in India is where the potential for economic development is huge and growth rate of 22% for 2025-2026. Imagine a state with 130 million people in India with about 17% urbanization compared to 37% for India. Most of the development concentrated in the capital city of Patna. Other cities being Gaya near Bodh Gaya, home of the world's most important ancient Buddhist sites where Lord Buddha spent most of his life, and Bhagalpur.  The new plan is to accelerate urbanization in Bihar. After Pataliputra and Kankarbagh 11 new satellite cities are to be set up under an new plan for Bihar. Housing Minister Nitin Nabin of Bihar state says- “The new townships will include nine divisional headquarters cities, Sonepur and Sitamarhi (Sitapuram). The initiative will reduce population pressure on major cities, ensuring better basic infrastructure and scope for further expansion. Special emphasis will be laid on roads, traffic management, drainage, waste disposal, green parks, and residential areas. The nine divisional headquarters were Patna, Muzaffarpur, Bhagalpur, Gaya, Darbhanga, Munger, Saran, Saharsa and Purnia. Committees will be formed to monitor the townships’ overall development." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In China since 1981 the poorest people making below $1.25 a day fell to 207 million in 2005 from 835 million in 1981. In India the number of people below $1.25 a day increased to 455 million in 2005 from 420 million people in 1981. The share of the people in poverty fell to 42 percent from 60 percent during the same period. Corresponding figures for East Asia including China show a drop from 80% of the people in poverty in 1981 dropping to 18% in 2005. The proportion of people living below the $1.25 a day poverty line worldwide fell over the nerarly 25 year period from 1981 to 2005 from 52% in 1981 to 26% in 2005. In subSaharan Africa, now the poorest region half or 50% of the people live under the poverty line of $1.25 a day in 2005 almost where it was in 1981. In absolute numbers the region had 380 million people living below the poverty line in 2005 compared to 200 million people in 1981. Note that the World Bank this year changed the poverty line from $1 to $1.25 a day, to make allowance for the inflation that is hitting the poorer countries. Is China a rich nation after the Olympics? Some parts of China, the coastal regions and the regions around big cities like Shanghai and Beijing are relatively affluent with pockets of poorer people but in the rest of the country there is poverty as defined perhaps in terms of deep poverty, poverty, poor middle class without health insurance or any kind of savings for emergencies. With 200 million people in 2005 below the poverty line a question could be asked how many people in China below say $2.00 a day which could be seen as being poor at a time when inflation in food and fuel costs has been significant in developing countries. If its somewhere in the range of 300 and 400 million people in China this explains why in relative terms China would identify with India and the rest of the developing countries and it also explains its stand in the WTO trade talks acting as a developing country protecting the rights of agriculture and farmers within China. And it also explains the reasons why China sees a long transition before it ceases to be a poor developing country and why there is real concern that these 300-400 million people as well as others adversely affected by the rapid industrialization and exercize of state authority, corruption and increasing gaps between rich and poor, adverse effects on environment, that these people adversely affected are listened to and accomodated in the interests of stable progress and fairness. Much of recent history has shown that countries open to foreign trade have done better given the right conditions and careful policy measures. China opened up around 1981, and India around 1991. Also progress and gains are more significant in infrastructure building and in poverty reduction in the latter phases of development as the synergies increase, capital pool increases, and the development accelerates, this shows why China's gains look significant compared to India's at this point in time. In ten years or fifteen years a better assessment could be made and then some points may favor China and some India, and the results will be a result of different history, experiences and problems faced and routes taken because of prior developments in each region and varying complexity. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
So far Italy has resisted the second wave of the coronavirus by adhering to the strict social distancing and mask guidelines better than other parts of Europe. After the traumatic experience in March and April Italians especially in the north near Milan are strictly following the guidelines. The daily number of new infections is at 1851 on October 1, and fatality rate is low.

LyrArc Article Gist
Cities that drop in the Livability Index of the Economist Intelligence Unit include New Delhi with poor air quality and petty crime slipping 6 places to 117  and Mumbai for culture downgrade by two places to 118. Karachi is at 136 place and Dhaka is the third lowest with weak infrastructure. Melbourne, Australia and Vienna, Austria are the top 2 places.

LyrArc Article Gist
A lot has been written about inflation in car pricing. This is true also of airlines and hotels this summer. Dawn Gilbertson in the WSJ says the 2023 travel rush continues, hotels and airlines have pricing power, and inflation is squeezing budgets. The solution is to have Plan B destinations, shorter trips, and plan airline reservations in advance looking at different alternatives based on airline and alternative destination choices. Average daily hotel rates have jumped to $180 this year in the US, up 10% since 2022 and 15% since 2019.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lower oil and natural gas prices are a big boost to the economies of the US and the European Union. Cost savings equal about 3.5% of GDP in Italy and 2% of GDP for Portugal, Germany, and Spain, according to Capital Economics. The price of oil has dropped to $77 a barrel from $121, falling below its pre Ukraine war levels. This boost could increase eurozone output by 1.5%, equivalent to about a years worth of growth. Instead of contracting by 1.3% eurozone economies are expected to grow by 0.7%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Henry Kissinger's first book is on the Napoleonic Wars and how the Austrian chancellor Metternich negotiated a peace that after 1815 kept a fragile peace in Europe till the war in 1914. Sometimes it is said that Kissinger as NSA and Secretary of State to US president Richard Nixon modeled his role from that of Metternich who with Kissinger shared a German background. This was based on realism and was based on offsetting the tyranny of Napoleon in Europe with a balance of power between Britain and Austria-Hungary. 

LyrArc Article Gist
After inflation drops to 2.3% in the eurozone in December 2024 the British pound rises to 1.21 euros and 1.04 US dollars. The ECB says its decision to cut rates to 3% was a result of inflation forecasts showing a further drop in inflation to 1.9% by 2026. Growth in eurozone was also updated to 0.7% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. 

The Fed is likely to make a further interest rate cut and the Bank of England keep it steady at 4.75%.

LyrArc Article Gist
India's focus is on climate finance as COP27 opens in Egypt November 6-11.

LyrArc Article Gist
Britain's parliament voted Jan. 15, 2019 to reject the Brexit deal crafted by Theresa May with the European Union by a huge margin of 230 votes. The vote was 432 to 202, with 118 Conservative MP's voting against along with the entire Labour Party members. 

If a no-confidence vote by the opposition Labour Party is defeated as expected with 118 Conservative MP's backing the government in that vote, the uncertainty and rancour and bitterness will continue. May will look for ways to tweak the deal to get it through parliament. If this fails Britain could march out of the EU with no deal on March 29, 2019, or the date is extended. She opposes extending the date or having a second referendum.

LyrArc Article Gist
Thailand's prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra's intervew with foreign journalists on Dec. 11, 2013. She says no one listens to people in the northeast and northern region of Thailand around Chinag Mai where most of her support lies. She was only 18 when her mother died and her older brother, a former prime minister, is seen by her as more of a senior figure. Protesters in Bangkok see her brother Thaksin Shinawatra, a Thai businessman in London as the one who runs the government's policies. The country is badly split between urban Bangkok and the rural regions in the north. The military ousted Thaksin in 2006 and protesters where shot in 2010 in a crackdown. The latest episode of confrontation between the two parties reflecting the two regions is a followup to this, as an amnesty bill was introduced by Yingluck which would let her brother return to Thailand. The interview was setup at an airbase outside Bangkok, as the country remains deeply divided and protesters occupy most of Bangkok....

LyrArc Article Gist
The government bailout of Fannie and Freddie was expected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars according to some estimates during the financial crisis in 2008-2009. The costs peaked at $187 billion in 2011. The transfer of $59.4 billion by Fannie Mae to the U.S. Treasury in 2013 lowers the net cost to $60.5 billion. The net cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program or TARP has decreased to less than $23 billion. At one point the cost of TARP reached $419 billion for the U.S. Treasury. The government sold the last of its shares in private insurance company AIG and made $22.7 billion in gains. Treasury and Fed loaned $182 billion to AIG and at one point owned 90% of the company. Chrysler exited the TARP bailout program in 2011 at a net cost to the U.S. government of $1.2 billion. So far in May 2013 the GM bailout cost $19.6 billion, this would come down to about $11.82 billion if the U.S. government sold its GM shares at the price in May 2013. The U.S. Federal Reserve says it has not lost money in any of its emergency lending facilities, even though some loans are outstanding. The FDIC says its fees from rescue programs exceed losses....

LyrArc Article Gist
The end of the Covid Emergency is set for May 11, 2023 by president Biden for the US.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bill Clinton, a former president, is no longer a popular figure in the Democratic Party in 2025. A new generation of leaders in the Democrats seek to put Clinton in the past. Clinton's main achievement are the peace accords in Ireland and in the Balkans with Serbia and Croatia, Bosnia. In domestic policy Clinton did little to anticipate the problems of getting health insurance for all, outshoring, and increasing jobs and wages for factory workers. He was involved in the scandal with an intern that led to efforts to impeach him and resulted in much of the second term being wasted in the process. It was under his successor Bush that the egregious provision that removed the power of Medicare to negotiate prices of drugs with manufacturers was passed. Bush was pushed into the war in the Middle East after 9/11 attacks by Middle East terrorists and havens in Afghanistan, that led to a two decades war in Afghanistan. Withdrawal happened under DJT and Biden consuming resources and time leading to the affordability crisis, outshoring of jobs and lower wages for factory workers. No one talks now about Clinton, Bush, Obama, because of these wars and the loss of America's leadership in manufacturing, squandered resources of attention, time and money that would have created new infrastructure and health insurance for all, inshoring. ...