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A ban on TikTok in 270 days is plausible, with credit going to Republican senators in Congress, as they insisted on it being incuded in the Ukraine aid bill package. Not only because of security and democratic process concerns- then one asks why what other real even larger concerns?  A ban on TikTok by restricting its use that does not affect education is already in place in China, yet such a ban is easier implemented in state power centralized government for the benefit of China's young generation and not in the US system of government. Excessive time spent on social media apps in the US including TikTok as the largest are a serious problem in America today -for young people's educational activity such as reading, studies, and for mental health. Taking a large part of the young generation in a direction that is not beneficial for the US, for democratic process to function with young people taking time to be better informed and for the health of the younger generation.  People assume that TikTok audiences will shift to other social media apps such as Facebook, but a large part of the TikTok population may engage in other activities that promote health as the consciousness for food and its preparation increases, for the value of exercise, engagement in sports and viewing sports or music, engagement in Nature and hobbies, and in time spent on travel, all happening as the Nation shifts its attention and consciousness after these troubled decades from financial crisis of 2009 to the pandemic, a period of dismal failure to deliver public services with funding diverted and misallocation in capital markets collapsing or near collapsing infrastructure around us sapping the Nation's spirit and its energies.  A new spirit is emerging in the Nation and a shift in the attention of the younger generation as it feels the fatigue that is now felt for music idols such as Taylor Swift is entirely plausible so that TikTok would have risen and faded away both in the US, India, and even in China as it shifts its attention in a different world. ...

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Vance says he is skeptical and inherently mistrustful about the constructive influence of Silicon Valley on America, on the broader economy in all parts of America, and on education expanding opportunity for all. Vance says of his stint in Silicon Valley starting in 2013 when he moved to the Bay Area after graduating in law from Yale to 2022 when he ran for the US Senate from Ohio, that it taught him something about the influence of venture capital on America. He is skeptical about its constructive influence when seen from the American heartland, from the Kansas prairies of Eisenhower to his own rust belt state of Ohio and the hinterland of Appalachia across the eastern US from New York through Tennessee to Mississippi. Vance says: "I've certainly personally been very close to the technology sector. Because of that experience, I inherently mistrust it or worry about its influence in the broader economy." WSJ's Angel Au Yeung calls it short lived but it stretched for 10 years and Vance returned to Ohio for Narya Ventures, worked with AOL founder Steve Chase on Revolution to look at what could be done in places such as Chattanooga, Tennessee, in the south and midwest with these venture concepts. This is enough experience just to understand its effects on all parts of America. Realizing in the end that it failed to support education or expanding opportunity for all. Even Apple's much touted iPad succeeds as a potentially useful tech device but fails when one sees what little interest or effort Apple put into developing its educational potential to expand opportunity for all. The reasons are that that was never the intended goal to subordinate public interest to profit, when education is inherently public interest. And because tech tools alone cannot do the work of educating minds. Only human beings and knowledge, ideas in books can do this, as they have done in all of America's and Europe's past. ...

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Commodities prices hit a low in June before the second Greece election on June 16, with lower unemployment numbers in the U.S. and growth of 6-7% in India and China. Still average prices of oil in 2012 of $115 a barrel are higher than the level in 2011. And corn prices dropping to $5.25 a bushel are still high compared with prices earler. Corn farmers in the U.S. are adding to acreage. The relatively lower prices also give more room for smaller stimulus by central banks to stimulate growth. Freeport-Mining CEO, Richard Atkinson said in a presentation that the growth is coming on top of a bigger baseline for China, India and Brazil. China's copper consumption went up by about 6 million tons a year, averaging 13% growth a year in the period 1995-2010. Now even with slower growth at 6% a year, by 2025 he estimates China's copper consumption at 9 million tons per year. This is a structural change that is supporting commodity prices, says Amrita Sen, analyst at Barclays Capital.

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The Trump administration's early proposal for NAFTA moves away from campaign pledges to completely renegotiate the treaty, instead taking the approach of working to improve the U.S. trade position in relation to Mexico and Canada. It includes seven objectives for tougher rules for labor and the environment favored by Democrats in Congress, and it also has support from Republicans with its effort to update NAFTA for changes in technology and in other areas since the accord was signed during the Clinton administration. The area in which U.S. and Mexican business are wary is one in which the Trump administration still seeks to keep the option of imposing protective tariffs, and a border-adjusted tax to level playing field for differences in taxes, as well as other measures to protect American jobs and interests. Because any renegotiated NAFTA also has to pass both houses of Congress this proposal took into account the different constituencies and interests for this issue. Robert Lighthizer, trade representative under president Reagan is likely to become the next U.S. Trade Representative and lead negotiator. We first profiled Lighthizer in a group in Lyrarc for pointing to the need for a level playing field in trade. As early as 2010 Lighthizer argued in op-ed articles that globalization and trade practices should ensure a level playing field for the U.S., and was covered in Lyrarc. ...

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Ford making plans to put 2 plants one in Nanjing, China, and one in Thailand with about $1 billion investment combined suggests Ford is looking at GM's strategy and planning for a new era in automobile production, one that makes more cars in high growth regions of Asia. The demand is expected to grow largest in India, China and the rest of Asia. And these cars will have to cost a lot less than they are today for the lower purchasing power of Asia's new middle clases and lower middle classes which are growing in numbers. Meantime the costs in the US are still high even after reducing the health care burden through the health care trust that GM negotiated with the UAW. The UAW agreement with GM reduces labor costs for new workers but existing workers costs continue to be at the levels from before. And non assembly new workers not all new workers get paid at lower rates than the existing rates. So the progress in labor costs is still short of where GM or Ford needs to see it to compete effectively worldwide. Meantime the automobile markets continue to change and grow worldwide. The American car companies cannnot wait, they have to make decisions based on the labor situation in the US and their response is to build new capacity in the Asian markets, even while maintaining labor peace at home so as not to have upheavals in the domestic markets in the USA. New product and designs can still be handled in the USA so GM could agree to make commitments for manufacturing new product at plants in the USA, while at a minimum getting the UAW to agree to take over health care responsibility and agree on the playing field in labor costs for the future, which would have to take into account global competition and not just a labor social contract from another era. Ford's 2 investments are in alliance with Mazda, of which it owns 33%, and which generated $168 million in profits in 2006. Of the product in Thailand 80% will be exported to the rest of Asia excluding China and India, and also to S. Africa and Australlia and New Zealand. It will make about 100,000 cars. Currently Thgailand exports about 650,000 vehicles out of production of 1.25 million vehicles. About 70% of exports are pickup trucks....

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A few events in the last 50 years are rewriting the rules for business, finance and economics, says the WSJ in this analysis. The admitting of China to the World Trade Organization under president Clinton in 2001 was one, another was the global financial crisis in 2009 with the selling of bad mortgages by the financial industry, the euro currency financial crisis with the bad accounting, real estate industry speculation, and lack of financial oversight in countries such as Greece, Ireland, Spain. The coronavirus pandemic is one more addition to this string of crises and events that have made the working class and middle class in US and Europe poorer and in worse shape after the recovery following World War II.  The changes indicated here are some of the surface changes- such as the shift to the suburbs for cleaner air and better living, the work at home as a serious option, the new focus on health care, wellness, exercise, nutrition and mental health, remote learning and community college as a realistic option to high tuition costs by the education industry, and a pharmaceutical industry refocused on public health and vaccines as it was in its early years before its shift into a simply profit driven industry. The underlying thread for all these changes on the surface is a deeper change in the public mind- a change that redefines what the people believe in just as happened after World War II. Rebuilding the devastated economies of Europe, America and Asia required a new vision at the time after World War II. And reconstruction could only happen with all the people involved and working for the public interest.  This also created a new hope for the future. President Biden's vision is for a new set of priorities that make child care, women's position in the economy, community college education as a right for all as a first step to opening the access to education that existed after the war in 1945. Investment in infrastructure, in building new roads, bridges and rail, water, internet connections, public services in transport, better layout of urban areas, better lives for retirees, are all part of an effort to improve quality and ease of living for all parts of society, not just those who can afford it.  This is uppermost on people's minds and administrations or governments that fail to deliver or simply talk with no action, will not have the support of ordinary working men and women in all countries. This is true for countries and regions as varied in their level of development as the US, Northern Europe, Southern Europe, Japan, India, Brazil and Mexico, and African nations. Democracy, government adminstration, technology and business structures exist for the people, to improve the ease of living, quality of life, through better health, education and public services.  ...

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E.J. Dionne, of Gerogetown University and the Brookings Institution, says the current situation in U.S. politics resembles the 1912 presidential election when a Princeton professor Democrat Woodrow Wilson called for stronger curbs on big financial institutions, and Republican Teddy Roosevelt, a former president, called for tighter regulation. During his presidency Roosevelt had helped pass legislation to curb monopolies, and represented the Progressive wing of the Republican party. Taft who was president was Teddy Roosevelt's protege and vice president before becoming president, and alienated Roosevelt by moving away from progressive actions taken during Roosevelt's administration. Dionne says Hillary Clinton's views are similiar to Teddy Roosevelt's views, and Bernie Sanders' views to Wilson's views. Wilson won 435 electoral votes to Roosevelt's 88, and Tafts 8. The big difference now is that on the Republican side the progressive wing that Teddy Roosevelt established is non existent, with Cruz's positions similiar to Reagan's, Kasich and Cruz at best close to Jack Kemp's views on broadening the Republican base with concern for working class issues, and Trump's views not clear because of lack of clear policy or programs beyond the personality based campaign. Dionne points to the problems facing the "progressives" of Sander's young supporters staying away from the polling booths with Hillary Clinton as the nominee, putting a Republican nominee into the White House. Overlooked here is the idea that much of the election campaign even in an advanced country like the U.S. is fought on slogans, leaving out some critical facts. The problems progressives face emerged during a period when a Democrat was president, and the influence of lobbyists had not diminished. Outsiders on the Republican side are focussed on diminishing the power of lobbyists, the political calculus of elections, and other interests that have affected policy in the last 8 years hurting the middle class and working class. ...

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During the first quarter 41% of the passenger cars sold in N. America went to rental car fleets. A big number. GM expects to reduce this by 5-10% in 2007. In 2006 GM sales to fleets are expected to be 600,000, with an estimate of 540,000 for 2007. Changes in rental car fleets include- older cars being phased out and replaced by newer models at higher prices which will now stay on the rental fleet for 9-12 instead of 6-8 months, with higher mileage approaching 30,000 which puts them outside the range of new cars. In previous years a rental car company would put cars used for 6-12 months back on the market resulting puting them in competition with new cars and bringing down new car prices. Rental companies like Hertz Avis etc buy about 2 million cars a year.

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The Indian Finance Minister Mukherjee presented his new budget and talked about the new administration's plans for investment and its priorities. The Rural Employment program which guarantees 100 days of work to each indigent family will get an increase in funding to $8.1 billion or 391 billion rupees for this fiscal year. THe goal was set for cutting in half the percentage of the people in India that are poor in five years, which the government measures by calories consumed. The Indian government estimates that 27.5% of Indians were poor in 2005 using this measure. To finance investment government spending will increase 36% and the deficit for the 2009-10 fiscal year will reach an estimated 6.8% of GDP, up from an estimated 6.2% in 2008. Abig part of this spending will be increases in infrastructure spending which will go up from 6% to 9% of GDP by 2014.

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Richard Barley points out that Italy has some breathing room even as the ten year yields on Italian debt reaches 6.15%, up 1.5 percentage points in 2011. Existing Italian debt has an interest rate of 4% and an average maturity of 7 years, according to Morgan Stanley. This means higher interest rates on new debt will take some time to have a serious impact. Fitch's estimates are that if 10 year yields on Italian debt went up to 7%, interest payments would go up to 6.1% of GDP by 2015 from 4.8% of GDP. This gives Italy some time to come up with solutions for competitiveness and growth issues. Italy's growth rate was only 0.1% for the 1st quarter of 2011, and debt is 119% of GDP. Italy also has a primary budget surplus which puts it in a better situation than other southern European economies.

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The Cajas, local savings banks, are a symbol of the excesses and lack of financial controls of the bubble years in Spain. The local savings banks were run by authoritarian leaders who remained in office for many years, and were influential in the political system. The Cajas expanded into real estate during the real estate bubble, and many of the cajas had to be merged by the federal government under new management after the bursting of the bubble. Minder describes the culture at Cajas banks in Galicia, the region in the northwest of Spain that is the home region of prime minister Mariano Rajoy. Julio Fernandez Gayoso, or known as Don Julio in the old baronial manner, was one such bank executive who ran the the larges cajas bank in Galicia as his own fiefdom till he was 80, and only quit when forced to resign in an investigation.

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Automakers had U.S. sales of 1.2 million cars and light trucks in December, 2011, an increase of 8.7% over Dec. 2010, acccording to Autodata Corp. Total light vehicle sales for 2011 were 12.8 millon, an increase of 10.3% over 2010. Chrysler showed a 37% increase in Dec. 2011 over Dec. 2010, Ford 10%, and GM 4.6%. For 2011 Chrysler showed the biggest increase in sales over 2010 of 26%, followed by Ford at 11% and GM at 13%. Toyota's sales declined in 2011 by 6.7% to 1.64 million. Honda's sales for 2011 declined by 7.1% to 1.15 million. American manufacturers introduced new models in the small and midsize segments to take market share from the Japanese. Ford plans a new version of the Fusion and Chrysler will introduce the Dart in the small car segment. GM and Ford are forecasting auto sales above 13.5 million for 2012 in the U.S. market.

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India's Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai says India will only give recognition to multilateral sanctions imposed by the United Nations. He said: We have accepted sanctions which are made by the United Nations. Other sanctions do not apply to individual countries. We don't accept that position." He was referring to the sanctions program of the U.S. government, under which countries would be granted exceptions and waivers from U.S. sanctions. Iran is the second largest source for India's oil purchases after Saudi Arabia. A multi-ministerial delegation from India is visiting Iran, and the delegation says Mathai will "work out a mechanism for uninterrupted purchase of oil from Iran and to work out a financing mechanism." South Korea which gets 10% of its oil from Iran plans to get an exception to U.S. sanctions under which it would reduce Iranian imports in 6 months from the date of a U.S. sanctions law.

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Britain's economy shrank by 0.5% in the last quarter of 2010, according to Office for National Statistics. Unemployment went up to 7.9% and 2.5 million jobless. Inflation up from 3.3% in the year to November, to 3.7% in December 2010. Mervyn King, governor of Bank of England, says inflation will go up to 4-5% in 2011. The austerity plan is only now beginning to go into effect and creates a difficult year. The VAT, a consumption tax, goes up to 20% from 17.5% on Jan 4th, and public spending cuts go into effect in April. With consumption depressed, higher investment and exports are the two areas supporting growth. There is a risk that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates, as it left interest rates at 0.5% in December 2010. Under these conditions not much of a recovery can be expected in 2011-2012.

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Karl Case, co-author with Shiller, of the Case-Shiller housing index, describes what the American dream of owning a house was always all about- having a safe long-term investment with the happiness gained from ownership of one's own home. It was never really meant to become a way to pay bills, and enjoy an artificially high standard of living based on artificially high speculative returns of 30% a year. Based on the authentic verson of this dream, it is still alive, says Case. Buying a house today costs less because of lower interest rates, the costs of a house are lower, and it provides a return in the form of rent that the owner doesn't have to pay for the home. Case has not factored in unemployment and job uncertainty, especially with the worsening economic outlook in 2011. This may still depress housing markets.

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New York city Mayor Bloomberg, says President Obama and Republicans should stop promising a free lunch, or something for nothing. He points to Obama's reelection strategy of higher taxes for the rich- by taxing those earning over $1 million at minimum of 30% in federal income taxes- as generating $1.1 billion, according to Congress's Joint Committee on Taxation. This would make little difference on a federal government with $1.2 trillion gap in spending and revenue. And he says Republicans who say making the Bush tax cuts permanent while at the same time cutting the deficit are promising a free lunch, with no connection to reality. The answer says Bloomberg should be to eliminate the Bush tax cuts for all groups, for shared sacrifice, and for Congress to pass the Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan with $4 trillion in savings on an up or down vote.

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New information shows a crisis is developing in higher education as student debt passes $1 trillion with the unrelenting rise in the cost of college. Higher debt levels is leading to higher droput rates. According to think tank Education Sector, 30 percent of college students taking out loans dropped out of school, compared to 25% ten years ago. And work can be a large factor as students take parttime jobs to lower the loan burden- half of college dropouts attributed dropping out to work, according to a 2009 study by Public Agenda. It also adds another burden to the productive potential of the U.S. economy. The director of the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University, Anthony Carnevale, estimates the cost to the U.S. economy at half a trillion dollars in terms of skills not available for increasing economic output and income lost for dropouts.

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A big problem Spain is facing is that the room for spending cuts is shrinking and new taxes are not generating higher tax revenues for the government. Tax receipts declined by 1.5% in the Jan-May 2012 period even with the higher taxes on income, electricity and tobacco. The revenues from VAT, value added tax, declined by 10%. Spending to aid regional governments increased by 12% and interest payments increased by 32%. Under the government of prime minister Zapatero tax income declined by 19% in 2007-2011, even after adding higher taxes on the wealthy, increasing the VAT tax and scrapping of a tax rebate. The government predicts domestic demand will decline by 3.1% in 2012. Ms Cospedal who is cutting spending in the Castilla region near Madrid, a deputy leader of the ruling Partido Popular, says in some regions the margin for additional savings is "becoming small."

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Did Putin overreact as he did in Georgia. On the issue of Russian speaking people in neighboring eastern European countries Putin has strong emotional reaction, as evident in the 2008 Georgian conflict. In Ukraine the issue assumes significance because of the effect of western sanctions, adverse foreign investor sentiment and the tendency of rich Russians, similiar to Argentines, to shift assets abroad. Capital flight was $75 billion in the first 6 months of 2014. Add to this adverse effect on foreign investor sentiment on an already slowing Russian economy, and growth will be seriously affected. Car sales are expected to decline by 12% in 2014, according to a trade group. The rhetoric has been toned down on Russian television. And Russian analysts now say relations with the West must be maintained. Polls by state run polling company WCIOM show 66% of the Russian public oppose Russian forces entering Ukrainian territory.

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This editorial in the Economist says Scots should get fiscal autonomy, and manage their own affairs including setting minimum wage, and tax rates. It says England should not subsidize Scotland as it currently does, and this will lead to Scotland bearing additional cost of about 8 billion pounds. It reminds readers that only about 50% of Scottish voters voted for the Scottish National party in the 2015 general election, and once Scotland has to balance its own books voters would have a chance to rethink the level to which they want a welfare state. As in Quebec the nationalist party may not have the same voter support when it has to tackle the difficult tasks involved in self government. This also means Scots would not be voting on how to manage affairs in England, leading to a federation for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.