LyrArc Article Gist
Dugan and Spector of the WSJ take readers through efforts to push self driving technology to its limits at electric car maker Tesla. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is pushing the technology and plans to get a self driving car go from Los Angeles to New York by the end of 2017. Problems faced by Tesla include a car crash involving a driver who took his hands off the wheel of a Tesla automobile, leading to a crash with an eighteen wheeler truck. This led to an investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Board and a decision by Tesla to make driver's hands on the steering wheel required for autopilot to operate. Earlier in 2015 Tesla engineers confirmed that the Tesla cars were not ready for autonomous driving because of near crashes when the reliance was placed entirely on the technology. Ten engineers and two managers resigned from Tesla according to this report by WSJ, with problems relating to deadlines and marketing decisions. Sterling Anderson, the head of the Autopilot program at Tesla resigned to start his own company with the head of the autonomous driving unit at Google, saying he was going to do it the right way, citing concerns that Musk was going ahead with the technology without making it failure proof. The tricky thing about auto pilot driving is the behavioural factors involved, where drivers may take their hands off the steering wheel and not be prepared to act as a backup should the technology fail or something go wrong. Another aspect of this is the tendency of drivers not to pay attention to the road and rely completely on the auto pilot to do everything, more than its capabilities today. Toyota and other auto companies are including some elements of collision free driving, and reliable aspects of the new technology into cars. For Tesla the driverless technology is part of its marketing appeal, and CEO Musk has moved faster in this respect than his own engineering team, according to this WSJ report. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Washington Post survey of 1200 readers on how the Republican healthcare plan of Speaker Ryan and the House of Representatives looks to them, how it affects them in their lives. Here Somasekhar of the Post gives the stories of 5 Americans. Some see the prospect of losing their insurance under the Republican plan even as they reach an older age, others a smaller segment says the Post, whose premiums jumped under the Affordable Care Act say they faced high premiums and high deductibles. The Post says the large majority of opinions have expressed anxiety over the proposed Republican Ryan House plan for healthcare. One of them is an uninsured poor farmer, Mr. Woosley,  income about $18000 who gained benefit from expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act,  one Mr. Smith, 32 years, a personal injury attorney who faces paying $10,000 if he did not take insurance and $10,000 if he took insurance because of high premiums so a wash either way deciding to do without it, one a tech worker Mrs. Powers, 62 years, income $22,000 on year and $4000 the next, from middle class during the tech boom but facing fewer opportunities and uncertain income from part time work, hit by the deep recession facing fewer opportunities as she gets older and now the prospect of losing insurance without government subsidies, one who is from the middle class who sees little benefit from the Affordable Care Act and is forgoing insurance because of the high premiums yet faces a penalty for not being insured under the ACA, another Mr. Blanchard, 52 years, is from the middle class, a computer programmer who lost his job in downsizing, earns $100,000 as a consultant self-employed, pays $767 in premium a month and relies on the Affordable Care Act which helps him gain freedom from working at a company that could downsize,  another is a middle class programmer Mr Riffle,age 44, and his wife, who does not qualify for a subsidy with a $71,000 family salary from working 4 jobs between himself and his wife- this person finds it too expensive for his salary to buy insurance $900 a month and $14,000 deductible under the Affordable Care Act. His views are worth listening to as they go to the crux of the problem- he says he may not be any better with the Republican plan. He sees the real problem as the high cost of health care in the U.S. and the only way this can be fixed is for members of Congress to be asked to use the insurance exchanges they create. If this sample is representative it shows that there are real problems with both the Affordable Care Act and the Republican plan, that the high cost of health care the problem lurking behind every plan that does not squarely address this, and till that happens and members of Congress experience what ordinary people face, this problem can never by fully solved.   Woosley, Smith, Powers, Blanchard, Riffle, and their personal experience is at the crux of what is right and wrong  with the Affordable Care Act, and also with the new Republican plan of Speaker Ryan and the House of Representatives. For every Woosley, Powers and Blanchard who benefit, there is a Smith and a Riffle who are indifferent or are affected by the high cost under Affordable Care Act and the current system of medical care with its high cost. The Affordable Care Act does not  tackle high cost, for that to happen the culture in America that makes it possible and acceptable to charge high prices must change. Another problem apart from bringing health care costs is that any solution needs to have the whole country behind it. If the notion that all people are entitled to basic health care is to stand, the whole country needs to believe it as they do in countries like France, Britain, Germany and Japan. If this has to be made a workable proposition health care has to be offered at a price that makes this possible to achieve, and that idea also needs the deep and broad sense of support from the culture in America similar to that in these other countries. Until that happens politicians in America will get elected and turned out of office in turns on issues such as health care, based on which side they take and which problems they choose not to face squarely and responsibly. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Friedman of the NYT says it all boils down to this: what kind of apartner do we have in Karzai? This thing, he says, and I get the stakes, is not going to work with Karzai as running a kind of Mafia family, and us backing up. If the government is fouled up then the whole mission is doomed says Friedman.

LyrArc Article Gist
Today GM announced that it is eliminating lifetime health coverage for about 100,000 white collar salaried retirees, as it is rapidly running out of cash to run operations. Also white collar salaries of current employees will be cut by 20 percent and the $1 a share dividend eliminated. This with other savings will save $1.5 billion annually GM estimates. Union contracts prevent this from taking effect for former factory workers even as the company is truly running out of cash. In paying the lifetime costs of hospital stays, surgeries, expensive drugs for retirees GM spends$4.6 billion in 2007 on health care for its one million employees and retirees and their dependents. This is larger that GM's entire active work force and a big reason GM has got into trouble. It also skewed management decisions in the wrong way. Management let it affect their strategy in the marketplace, they continued to run the company by emphasizing sales volume with frequent sales and discounting in the belief that the size was needed to support all these retirees goldplated medical care, care which does not exist in other industries and companies, even when GM coud least afford it. By carefully shutting down plants earlier as demand for some of its cars and vehicles was shrinking, and closing down some brands, GM could have focussed its efforts on the areas including smaller passenger cars and midsized cars and other models which were gaining popularity, and shifting ahead of the curve out of pickups and large SUV's in the face of higher gas prices. Its the collapse of the pickup and SUV market that exaggerated the impact even in October 2008, instead of the about 30% decline that the industry faced and GM faced in its cars, GM's dramatic drop in pickups and SUV's gave it an overall loss of 45% October 2008 over same month 2007. Without this aberrration of health care benefits from a previous growth era and a dominant GM - an anachronism in the present when GM was in decline and health care costs had mushroomed and company health care benefits cut back in industry after industry- and without the intransigence of the unions and the failure of management to build credibility, share the pain and convince the unions in good faith that this was unsustainable, GM could have had a much better shot of developing a strategy for renewal. Instead it sealed GM's fate, along with lack of foresight in taking decisive action to shift to higher fuel efficiency cars early in the curve, and closing unneeded plants and brands to focus on this task. In the end the gold plated benefits which were terminated today are lost for salaried retirees, and sooner or later the same is likely to happen inside or outside bankruptcy for union workers. Union workers who might then say what the salaried retirees are saying now, that if the company goes out of business, they would lose everything anyway, and could not blame GM for cutting them off. If only they had understood this earlier and accepted these facts, and if only managment had built the credibility and shared the pain so that company's interests came above union or management interests, as they should be for a company to grow or renew itself and grow. In the end union workers in the auto industry were living beyond their means, just as consumers in the USA were living beyond their means, and the outsized executive compensation also a kind of grab from another era. Renewal starts with getting a grip on reality, and reality slipped away from their hands....

LyrArc Article Gist
For decades the auto companies lobbied vigorously against stricter fuel efficiency standards. NYT editorial points to this failure in policy of the Detroit automakers, and the failure of Congress to do more for fuel efficiency standards with lobbying from automakers even in the recently passed legislation. That target of 35mpg fleetwide for 2020, a low target with no stretch or imagination built into it should be revised and a higher target set. If the companies build smaller cars like Europe does they could reach a target of 50mmpg fleetwide by 2020. That would be a serious target with stretch built into it. Tough conditions have to be atttached to any rescue money. This includes firing top management, no payment of dividends, limits on executive pay, tougher fuel efficiency target, reopening labor agreements on pay and benefits to reflect the new realities. If taxpayers are going to take the risks Congress must insist on these changes or the money will be wasted says the NYT editorial. Some of these steps would be painful for workers but they are necessary....

LyrArc Article Gist
Martha Finney's new book "Rebound" talks about how to start over after a job loss and keep ones dignity and self respect, composure and grace in handling that job loss. One shouldn't let it pull oneself down. Thinking too much about it doesn't help. There may be points that are good in the performance appraisal which one can be aware of but overall there are many times when the performance appraisal process has failed and it depends more on who is doing the performance appraisal and the culture and outlook of that person. A different setting and different people and maybe a shift in the line of work may bring very different results. In this world of pink slips because of the economy, its not about the job loss about performance but about a situation entirely beyond one's control. Here too a well composed person, who is willing to try new things and tide over adifficult period with a lot of flexibility and can keep expenses down has a much better advantage.

LyrArc Article Gist
Dai Quing, environmental activist and human rights activist occupies a unique position in China because of her history and because of what she is. She was raised by a senior Chinese military leader after both her parent died fighting the Japanese. She has criticized the rush to builda huge dam on the Yangtze river, arguing why not many smaller dams. but the country's leader's especially Li Peng a former premier see the Three Gorges dam as a project that signals Chinese modernization and have overlooked all the signs that this may not be the best way to modernize and their may be other better ways considering the danger of mudslides in the silty soil of the Three Gorges area. See the link to the WSJ Dec 31, 2007, on how the Canadian got involved and how the feasibility study was based on the Quebec Hydro's experience in a rocky region of norther Quebec, the huge James Bay dam, that is very different from the Yangste area of the Three Gorges with its silty soil.

LyrArc Article Gist
The benchmark price of U.S. crude oil dropped to $31.41 a barrel on January 11, 2016, as oil prices continued to drop sharply following a slowdown in China, appreciation in the U.S. dollar and no cuts in production from Saudi Arabia. Analysts expect a crisis for energy producers that is deeper than ones in 1986, and five plunges in oil price all the way back to 1970. With the oil prices at $30 and expected to drop below $30, the companies that took on a lot of debt have no choice but to keep up production. In the process many may find themselves in bankruptcy. Private equity with capital of $100 billion is likely to come in at this point to buy cheap assets without the debt, say analysts. U.S. banks energy portfolios are small, with Wells Fargo energy exposure only 2% for oil and gas loans in the third quarter of 2015, or about $17 billion. Loans that are rated "sub-standard. doubtful or loss," are projected at 15% of loans to energy producers, about $34.2 billion, in a biannaual review by banking regulators. The unusual aspect of this energy price slump is that production is not declining with falling prices- oil production in the U.S. was estimated by the government at 9.2 million barrels a day in Jan 2016- 1% higher than at the beginning of 2015 when prices were over $40 a barrel....

LyrArc Article Gist
The marketing of the iPhone 6 in the U.S., China and global markets helps Apple widen its lead over competitors in 2015. Apple sales were 47.5 million iPhones in the 2nd quarter 2015, increasing by 35% over the prior year quarter. Apple is also gaining sales from buyers switching from Android phones. Apple's iPhone sales now make up 63% of its sales, compared with 53% in the same quarter in 2014. Sales of iPhones increased 59% to $31.37 billion as the average selling price went up by $100 to $662.42. Apple remained above the fray, and actually increased average selling price to $662, as Xiaomi sold quality Android phones at near cost in China hitting Samsung sales and margins hard, and leaving unsold inventory for Samsung in China. Rarely has a company dominated its business in this manner from the standpoint of profits with only about 20% of the market in smartphones. Apple profits in the 2nd quarter were $10.7 billion, increasing from $7.74 billion in the prior year quarter. The iPad unit sales declined by 18% for the 2nd quarter 2015, the sixth quarter of such declines and fewer customers upgrading. The iPad has also not taken off in the workplace. Mac unit sales were up 9%, even though the PC market declined in units by 9.5% globally for the quarter. Apple shares up 39% in 2015, fell by 6.7% over concerns about slowing China sales....

LyrArc Article Gist
Matt O'Brien points out that the Chinese currency may be overvalued as other currencies including the euro and the Japanese yen weakened. Since 2005 China let the yuan appreciate very gradually. As China's economic growth slowed in 2014 investor outflows have increased with an estimated $800 billion leaving the country. China has spent some of its reserves to keep it stable. Before the move the yuan was managed by letting it trade up or down 2% each day around a midpoint set by the government. The new setup keeps this but lets the market set the midpoint based on where it closed the prior day. This move was recommended by the IMF to help in the transition of the yuan to becoming a reserve currency. O'Brien points out that the soft peg to the U.S. dollar means the yuan appreciated 9.2% against the euro and 57.8% against the Japanese yen in the years 2013-2015, and this is happening as the U.S. Federal Reserve is planning to raise interest rates- the real trade weighted exchange rate being up 14% for the yuan in the last 12 months. The 8.3% decline in the exports for July 2015 over the prior year led the government to this action. The increase in investor outflows as a result will lead to further declines, with some estimates of the eventual decline in the yuan at about 10%....

LyrArc Article Gist
Productivity as measured by GDP per hour worked was $44 in Italy in 2009. It has remained the same as in 1999. In the EU-15 (first 15 members of the EU) the GDP per hour worked increased from 47.9 in 1999 to 49.0 in 2009. For the U.S. this GDP in the same period went up from $56.0 to $58.0. This shows the lack of productivity growth in Italy. With the current focus on Italy's slow economic growth efforts are underway to make changes that would increase growth. GDP growth in Italy was 1.3% in 2010, compared to 1.8% for the eurozone, according to Eurostat. Italy's Minister for Public Administration Renato Brunetta says he would like to cut that gap in half. Some of the measures in the recently passed $40 billion spending cuts package, include efforts to help the underdeveloped southern region. This includes cutting red tape for real estate developers, and streamlining accounting for business. Italy's growth comes mainly from exports that make up about one fourth of GDP. But this comes from lower tech sectors such as textiles, chemicals and machinery, where it must compete with China and other countries. In May 2011 industrial output was up by 1.8% in Italy,compared to 7.5% for Germany. Another problem is the large and inefficient public sector and the gap between protected state workers and a younger generation- with one in three Italians 15-24 unemployed....

LyrArc Article Gist
After increasing the price of subsidized diesel, the Indian government lays out a plan to cut the deficit over five years. The plan sets a goal for the deficit of 5.3% for fiscal year ending March 2013 to come down to 3% by 2017. Earlier India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), had said the government needed to take action on the deficit before it reduced interest rates. The RBI faces a difficult task in reducing rates to stimulate the slowing economy because inflation was 7.8% in Sept. 2012. At the same time the sharp decline in growth is a cause for serious concern- the most recent RBI forecast for GDP growth made in July for the current fiscal year through March 2013 is 6.5%. This may not be achieved as other economists have lowered the estimate to as low as 5% because of slow government action in economic reforms, high interest rates, and the uncertain global economc outlook. The last action by the RBI to lower interest rates was a drop of half a percentage point in April 2012. Much of the momentum for the Indian economy was lost in the first half of 2012 with the governments vacillating steps for opening the retail and other sectors to foreign investment. Only in October 2012 has prime minister Manmohan Singh set a clear direction by dropping coalition partners opposed to reforms and announcing new policies for foreign investment....

LyrArc Article Gist
Mitt Romney states the case for supporting free trade both in principles and practice. Acceptance of the staus quo allows China to game the world trading system, says Romney. In the end accepting the status quo may do more damage to the world's trading system than any efforts to correct the misalignment in currencies and failure to rebalance the world economy. He questions the passive approach of some members of Congress and the Obama administration on the grounds that starting a trade war makes them nervous. China with $273 billion more in exports than imports to the U.S. has reason to see this issue objectively, even with all the noise it is making about trade retaliation, suggests Romney. Other experts have pointed to the problems the misalignment creates for China's economy. A New York Times editorial on October 15, 2011, cites figures from the Peterson Institute of Economics showing this costs China $240 billion a year through trade surpluses in dollars that are declining in value. For years China's fears are that this would lead to higher unemployment. This New York Times editorial points out that jobs have increased by about 1% a year since 2004, even with 10%+growth, because many of the manufacturing jobs use advanced manufacturing technologies. A firm response today also makes it possible to avoid the kind of sudden response that could take place later on if public opinion overwhelmingly shifts away from trade with China under status quo conditions. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Rolf Wetzer, a German metal working factory manager reflects feelings widespread in Germany. He says, we work hard and save our money, and he can't see why Germans have to throw money at countries that cannot do the same. There is considerable negative feeling about the bailout of Greece, because it is seen as brought about by the excessive spending, public corruption, and irresponsible accounting that went on in Greece. There is less negative feeling about the bailout of Ireland, as the Irish are seen as an industrious people, and the crisis was brought upon Ireland by Irish banks. Because of the negative feeling it will be much harder for Angela Merkel to go back to the German parliament for more funds, especially as her popularity has suffered. The existing fund will be stretched by the possible bailout of Portugal and Spain. Germany remains committed to the euro, but there is considerable anger about the bailouts. Germany has benefitted from the euro-zone through its exports, which jumped 31% in the last decade. Germany has a $105 billion trade surplus with the rest of Europe. At the same time there is fear that public opinion may turn against the euro. Thomas Mayer, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, says you can already feel it. Frank Schaeffer, a legislator for the Free Democrats, says that whether Germany needs the same currency as its neighbors is something he has doubts about....

LyrArc Article Gist
Carr's account of the distraction promoted by the Internet, services like Google and Twitter in a book called "The Shallows." He says Google is in the business of distraction and Twitter is neurological heroin. His account is very well informed and researched say reviewers of his book. Research is cited frequently. a neuroscientist is quoted by Carr that our brains are being trained to pay attention to crap. And scarier still, Carr shows what this does to humans ordinary tendency to relate to others, empathy and feeling the emotions of compassion for others. The more distracted we become we don't experience these emotions in the same way. He shows how the working memory has room for only a limited number of items 2-4 items, and whereas a book reader can take his own time to process, the web can lead one to do this speedily and in a scattered way. So the manner in which previous generations absorbed information is now disturbed, making it harder to concentrate. The emphasis, as it is for any new technology, is how to use it wisely, and avoid its misuse. The statistics show Americans spending an average of 8.5 hours per day using the PC, TV or Smartphone, and checking their emails 30-40 times per hour, and teenagers receiving or sending 2,272 monthly text messages, which may suggest that things are beyond a wise limit....

LyrArc Article Gist
Fears that India may be falling behind China, Mexico and Brazil in healthcare for the people. A planned budget increase was never implemented. Today the Indian government spends only $20 billion on healthcare for a population of over 1 billion people. Annual spending on healthcare is about 1.4% of GDP. Now the Indian government is planning to increase this to 2.5% of GDP. One senior health official Amarjeet Sinha, says other emerging economies such as Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia, now have better public health indicators than India. In 1990 India's public health indicators were similiar to those countries. Another serious problem in India is malnutrition with an estimated 4 of 10 children malnourished. Underinvestment in healthcare is a significant problem as needs grow but there is a shortage of resources and trained healthcare personnel. Arvind Singhal, chairman of consutancy Technopak, says India needs an additional 1 million doctors and 2.5 million nurses to meet the needs of the current level of the Indian population. To do this 600 new medical colleges and 1,500 nursing colleges are needed. The child care advocacy group Save the Children UK, points out that just to meet India's committment to reduce the infant mortality rate by two thirds of the current level by 2015- to meet India's commitment to the UN Millenium Development Goals- India will need 2.6 million additional trained health workers. This shortage is most acutely felt in rural areas, especially in the large states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar....

LyrArc Article Gist
S&P said it will maintain India's credit rating of triple B minus, the lowest investment grade rating, yet it may downgrade it to "junk status" in the next 2 years. S&P said this could happen "if the external position continues to deteriorate, growth prospects diminish, or progress on fiscal reforms remains slow in a weakened political setting. India's growth rate declined to 6.9% in the year ending March 31, 2012, down from 8.4% the prior year. The problem is that India's current account deficit is growing rapidly with the high import bill for energy supplies. The current account deficit is now at 4% of GDP. The trade deficit increased to $185 billion in this fiscal year, up 56% over the prior year. Additional problems are finding ways to finance the deficit with foreign capital, as European banks are pulling back during the current eurozone crisis. Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar says this could be a big problem. Net foreign capital investment is declining rapidly from $72 billion in February 2012 to $387 million in March, with a net outflow of $27 million in the April 1-25 period. The budget deficit, which has drawn the attention of the RBI, India's central bank, and of S&P, is at 5.9% of GDP for fiscal year ending March 31, 2012. This is larger than the government target of 4.6%. The government has set a deficit target of 5.1% of GDP for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2013....

LyrArc Article Gist
The increasing likelihood that Greece will exit the eurozone. This happens as the New Democracy party fails to form a coalition and the other parties are offered a chance to form a coalition. The other opposition parties gained far more votes than New Democracy and Pasok in the elections and some parties favor Greece exiting the eurozone. New elections will be held in June if no government is formed. The current government of Lucas Papademos says it needs an extra year to complete the privatizations, public sector layoffs and improvements in tax collection, giving Greece till 2015 to get the job done. As a senior advisor to Papademos, George Pagoulatos, put it: "There is a sense that Greece has passed its pain threshold... Greece needs some oxygen to breathe." Both the Ifo Institute's Sinn and John Taylor see the exit from the eurozone as the best option for Greece, as interest rates on Greek debt have been reduced and Greek banks recapitalized with the March 2012 bailout. John Taylor, WSJ, Feb. 22, 2012, A Better Grecian Bailout/ WSJ, Feb. 17, 2012, Interview: Ifo's Sinn: In Greece's Interest to Leave the Eurozone.This may already be the preparation the IMF, ECB, EU, and the Greece government has laid out as an option if the voters in Greece overwhelmingly rejected further austerity. This now appears to have happened and far more quickly than politicians in Athens, Brussels and Berlin had anticipated....

LyrArc Article Gist
From a skate board maker in Zaragoza to other small businesses laying off employees because banks hit by bad loan losses in the housing bubble are calling in their loans, the situation is rippling across Spain in 2012-2013. It will only worsen an already bad unemployment situation with 25% unemployment. Banks are being consolidated and are expected to take bad loan losses under new rules, and increase their capital reserves to account for bad loans. Many of the cajas savings banks are closed or merged with other banks in other regions resulting in loss of contact with local business. Of 45 regional savings banks only 13 remain. The effects of this are being seen across Spain as small and medium sized businesses are seeing banks call in their loans leading to large layoffs. Here a small business owner in Zaragoza with 1.3 million in skateboard sales to 20 countries, sees its bank call in a 250,000 euro loan, and has to layoff all his employees. A childrens shoe company Colores in Zaragoza shuts down for lack of credit. This is happening quickly as banks in the case of Colores are calling the full amount of the loan immediately and the effects may impact Spain for years. About 60% of the economy and 80% of the jobs are from small and medium sized businesses in Spain, and half a million small businesses have closed in the last few years....

LyrArc Article Gist
The slowing of China's growth with GDP growth for 2012 estimated by the government at 7.5%. Growth was 8.1% in the first quarter of 2012, with expected decline in the second quarter. In response China's National Development and Reform Commission, which executes economic policy in China, has accelerated the approval of major infrastructure investments starting in April. This includes hydropower stations, clean energy projects, 4 new airports and renovations of 3 large steel plants, a subway in Nanjing. The investments total about $150 billion. Another stimulus comes from investments by local governments with central government support, including highways, sewage treatment plants, and $55 billion investment by state corporations in the Chongqing municipality. To revive the auto industry a cash-for-clunkers program is also planned, and this may include cash incentives for home appliance purchases. In addition to this the State Council headed by premier Wen Biao is making plans for 20 major projects in 7 strategic industries, from advanced equipment manufacturing to energy conservation. The result is a Stimulus that will be much smaller than the $585 Stimulus spending of 2008-2009, with a measured response compared to the earlier splurge in spending. Experts say the Communist party sees this as ensuring a smoother transition to a new president and prime minister in 2012, with added credibility for the nations growth and for the leadership of the Communist party in the modernization drive. ...