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Several factors make it likely that oil prices will remain low for an extended period of time into 2016 and beyond. As Ailworth points out nobody is blinking. The Saudis plan no change to their high production. U.S. oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico have already made investments for deep sea drilling wells following the end of the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf. Many of these wells are producing at very low marginal cost as most of the investments have already been made. It makes economic sense to produce even in a low price environment, according to Andarko. Shell continues to invest in the deep waters of the Gulf. Its production is up 10% to 250,000 barrels a day. American shale oil drillers have not cut back as much as expected, partly because many companies with large debts need the cash flow to pay interest on debt. And some of the 1200 wells that were drilled but left untapped may also be brought on stream to slow production declines. As a result the overall production of American crude, according to monthly federal information, has declined by about 3% to 9.3 million barrels from the peak reached in April 2015. This helps the U.S., Europe, China and India, at a time when their economies are experiencing different problems. It hurts Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran. Russia is coping as its exporters convert dollars into rubles after the sharp depreciation in the ruble, and helps local industry including steel producers, as well as wheat exports. Venezuela's economy is the worst hit. And Iran now has to produce at high levels in 2016 to improve its economy following the lifting of sanctions....

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For the country with the largest population in the world of over 1.2 billion people who had just gone through a once in a century pandemic would it have been right to import oil at prices that made it harder to invest what was needed in infrastructure and rapid growth? This is why president Biden and NSA adviser Jake Sullivan believe India has taken the right step to import at the lowest price possible to not divert funds that are so desperately needed for infrastructure to build the metros, fast railways, roads, bridges and airports the people of the country need. India's stand on invasions with millions of women and children turned into refugees is for an end to this war - Gandhi's position on a war such as this or Vivekananda's is not hard to read.

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The weaker dollar and oil prices. What would the price of $100 a barrel oil be in euros if the dollar stayed where it was when the euro was introduced, that is to have kept its value in relation to the euro. Answer 57 euros. Which is why in addition to the higher taxes that the increase in oil prices has not had the same impact in Europe as it has in the USA.

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About $2 billion estimated by the Nigerian government is the amount stolen by military ruler Abacha from the central bank between 1993-1998. The Swiss government agreed to return $458 million of this to Nigeria in September 2006. Desperately needed development funds have long been diverted from the oil wealth of Nigeria into private accounts. Note the present government has made some progress in the area of fighting corruption. Also note that much more needs to be done for development in places where oil is produced like the Niger delta, and these problems have resulted in the shutdown of oil production in the area, affecting world oil prices.

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Stock markets have declined about 1% during the current banking crisis. This shows that the action taken by president Biden quickly taking over Silicon Valley Bank and closing Republic Bank is working. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the central banks of US, EU, Swiss, worked together to take immediate action. Swiss central bank and the government stepped in to arrange the backing for UBS to takeover Credit Suisse bank.  The crisis affected market sectors in differing ways. Information technology stocks were up 5.7%, energy stocks went down by 7%, bank stocks declined 6%, sensitive materials sector stocks went down by 3.5%. Risks remaining are that the loss of confidence in regional banks could affect lending. The Fed's policy of containing inflation by raising interest  rates could continue say experts leading to information tech stocks losing any gains. Any drop in the price of oil could help the economies of the US and EU, India, Japan and China. By March 15 prices of US crude had dropped for West Texas Intermediate benchmark to $67. Any drop of prices to the $60 level increases growth in the EU, US, China, India and Japan, reducing chances of a recession. ...

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Saudi Arabia announces increase of 200,0000 barrels a day which is considered not enough to make a difference for oil prices after the summit in Saudi Arabia. Energy Secretary Bodman says speculators are not a factor in oil price increases and the Saudi King says they are a reason for oil price increases and no new ideas or actions that would be meaningful come up in the meeting.

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US fuel exports are increasing with higher fuel prices overseas. The exports of oil, diesel and jet fuel from US Gulf Coast ports increased by 32% in the first quarter of 2022 over previous year says this report in WSJ. The exports of natural gas by pipeline or tankers to Mexico and Canada increased to 22% of total US production in the same period. Companies and exporters are gettting higher prices overseas than they could get in the US. This is also pushing gas prices higher in the US to over $5 a gallon.

Demand for US exports has gone up exponentially say experts and a lot more US exports could take place to Europe and other countries. And domestic prices have had to rise to keep supplies in the US. With the increase in natural gas prices come increase in cost of electricity and households are expected to limit their use of energy as this happens.

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Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia's central bank, is a think tank economist who was Economy minister before becoming chief economic advisor to Russian president Putin in 2012. She is one of the liberal economists in Russia who see the years of economic growth following ruble devaluation in 1998 as an example of how devaluation can actually help the economy. The devaluation lowers costs for manufacturing and agriculture, and is seen by some economists as having done more than oil price increases to help the Russian economy grow during president Putin's first term from 1999 to 2004. Nabiullina's position to support a free float after the sharp decline in the value of the ruble following the plunge in oil prices, is based on the need she sees to use the crisis to reduce Russian overdependence on imports. This policy had other advantages by reducing the need to tap Russia's foreign currency reserves to defend the ruble. Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves are at $385 billion. In Jan 2015 the central bank cut interest rates. A policy of increasing rates would trigger a sharper recesssion. Russia faces a unique situation in that the oil price decline and the decline in the value of the ruble occurred at about the same time of about 50%, so that the budget continues to be balanced. The number of rubles coming in from oil exports remains the same after the crisis. Nabiullina told Russia 24 television- "We have to live in a different zone, Russians should orient ourselves more toward our own sources of financing projects, and to give a chance to import substitution."...

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India's airline market has grown from 51 million passengers in 2010 to 138 million in 2018. 600 planes are in operation with 859 on order. The airline industry in India is experiencing intense competition and putting some airlines such as Jet Airways in trouble as they compete with low cost carriers such as Indigo.

Jet Airways has temporarily stopped operating its 115 planes on about 1000 routes as it has failed to win new funding. This could lead to higher prices. Fuel prices and depreciation of the rupee hurt Jet Airways.  A problem for Indian airlines is the thin margins and the uncertain oil price environment. Etihad Airways took a 24% stake in Jet Airways but that partnership has not prevented Jet from having problems with lenders.

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This WSJ editorial shows a 3.1% decline in purchasing power lost to inflation since president Biden took office, average hourly earnings declining from $11.39 to $11.03. Yet it is also true that inflation has been cut in half in May 2023 to 4% compared to a high of 9% in 2022. Inflation is much higher in the UK and Europe. President Biden also passed the Inflation Reduction Act, intervened in energy markets to lower oil prices with policies to reduce prices for Russian oil. Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve is aggressively tackling inflation. Investments in manufacturing in the US and in infrastructure will increase jobs and strengthen the US economy in 2023-2025. This was given the name Bidenomics yet it is about president Biden and policymakers looking carefully at what works to increase jobs, increase wages, and support workers and families, and build American manufacturing and infrastructure for a strong economy.

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WSJ provides tips for getting the best airline ticket prices. 

Fly on a Tuesday or Wednesday.  The best time to buy is 3 weeks out, 3 months to 3 weeks is the best time after that you are at the mercy of the airlines, says WSJ. Fares can be 20% lower on the weekend or on if you buy on a Sunday. Nonstop flights can be cheaper than connecting flights nowadays. You find lower fares by staying on a Saturday, maybe 25% less costly to Europe, only 3% for inside the U.S.

One thing has changed- airlines cost for oil is only a quarter of operating cost. So if oil prices come down don't expect airline prices to come down. Consolidation, reduced flights and strong demand have led to a different climate for airlines.

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Exxon added a provision not to add CEO of Pioneer Sheffield to its board, for FTC permission in closing a deal by Exxon to buy Pioneer for $60 billion in stock. This was after the FTC raised questions about the Pioneer CEO on collusion with OPEC to raise oil prices.

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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says this is not chaos in tariff policy because you don't change 70 years of policy overnight. He says China's is highest because it has the highest trade deficit, then EU, Japan, South Korea at 15% because of the smaller deficits with these nations, Vietnam because it is used  by China to send products to the US, India because of geopolitical reasons buying Russian oil. See Dasha Burns, Politico White House Bureau Chief's  interview with USTR Jamieson Greer.  He says about India- Jamieson USTR calls India "an outlier" and says "I'm confident we will get a deal with India in the near future." India he says has largely corrected its imports of Russian oil and negotiations are underway for a deal.  ON USMCA Greer says of the $31 trillion in trade with Canada and Mexico $29 trillion is us right. trade between Canda and Mexico is small. So he says it makes sense to negotiate separately with Canada and separately with Mexico. This suggests that there doesnt need to be a USMCA- separate deals are just fine says Greer. Mexico has gained much in automobiles under USMCA- US wants to make more in the US including auto parts which it can do by negotiating this with Mexico. It does not make a ton of economic sense to marry the three economies together, says Greer, as the import export profiles, lab,or situations are all different. Are Tariffs good for the economy and do they lead to higher prices? Greer says inflation was down in the first DJT term in trade with China and tariffs. Greer says there is never a 1 to 1 with tariffs. It tariffs become a kind of leveage in getting agreements. That is the style of these tariffs. You tell Ecuador or Brazil we don't make these here so there will be no tariffs on bananas and on coffee. Says Greer- we have seen inflation in check, imported goods relatively low priced. We have seen that we can have growth and higher wages with tariffs at the same time. The growth in 2025 third quarter at 3.8% annual growth, and Atlanta Fed predicting 4.2% growth in 2026. And tariff money can be used for paying down the debt and financing America's reindustrialization, Greer says members of Congress are asking about this.When a new administration comes tariffs will still be part of the playbook. ...

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The probability of rate cuts by the Fed increases with decline in core inflation even as inflation for the year is 2.9%. Higher inflation is because of 4% increases monthly of gas prices. The oil price increase is seen as a temporary factor with longer term inflation headed down.

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Mexico is likely to move ahead with long term deep water oil exploration tenders in 2015, and delay tenders for shale and other oil fields. President Nieto's popularity has dropped to 40%, an all time low, reducing political capital. Other problems are staffing the agency that will put together the bid round, which will take time. The initial bids for 109 exploratory blocks and 60 production fields were earlier planned for 2015. Shallow water fields are likely to go first. Oil companies are expected to be choosier in making investments at the current oil price, yet retain interest in long term deep water oil exploration.

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Fed chairman Powell sees inflation right now in the US as driven by supply chain problems, by the war in Ukraine and its effect on oil prices, and by shifts among American consumers from spending on dining and travel to furniture and goods. An added factor is the tight labor market that affects spending.

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Ideas from experts to encourage conservation of energy,.

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Lower oil prices, higher corporate profits, and restrained spending, lead to improvements in Japan's budget deficit. There is a 24% increase in corporate taxes in Japan's budget estimates for 2015 compared to Dec. 2012 when prime minister Abe assumed office. This will help reduce the budget deficit. The budget assumes an oil price of $69, making the budget plan achievable with prices below $50 in Jan. 2015. For the next fiscal year tax revenue is expected to increase by 5.4% over the prior year, with half of the increase from the sales tax increase and the other half from the higher economic growth. Budget projections assume 3.6% global economic growth, exports up by 5.2% in real terms, and imports up 3.9%. Spending is kept under control increasing by just 0.5% from the current fiscal year budget, and borrowing reduced by 11%. The government plan is to produce a primary budget surplus by 2020, and cut the deficit by half in the primary budget which excludes bond issuance and interest payments, by fiscal 2015....

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Moderating prices for oil and commodities and food combined with lower oil prices that help introduce fiscal restraint in the government's spending, would actually help Iran in controlling inflation running at 24% by IMF estimates. And Iran's foreign currency reserves of $82 billion would help cushion Iran as it incurs modest fiscal deficits and help it weather the global financial crisis. And Iran's oil and gas exports are rising for 2008 and 2009 by estimates of IMF and Iranian government with foreign currency reserves estimated at near $100 billion for 2009, though a lot depends on oil price levels for these estimates.

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In a glut market for potatoes in Europe this is what happens. From $600 euros a ton in 2023 to zero for the price of potatoes in the spot market  in Belgium in 2026. Europe has asurplus f 5 million metric tons of potatoes of the kind used to make french fries. In the past it could be shipped as exports to the US. Not anymore US has tariffs to protect US farmers in Idaho and other states. An Idaho potato maker financed Micron in the 1960's which now is a major chip maker nearing valuation of 1 trillion dollars in the stock markets. You have this situation where a thousand tons of potatoes stacked 15 feet high in a Belgian warehouse is dumped back into the ground. The Belgian farmer D'haeyere took a loss of $160,000 euros on soil, seedlings, fertilizer and labor. He is planting only 17 acres for 2027 down from 170 acres he planted  this year. Belgium is the largest exporter of french fries in the world.

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The effect of Russia's economic problems in 2015, including the drop in oil prices to below $50 a barrel, would cost Russia about $200 billion, according to Russia's finance minister Anton Siluanov. In addition to lower oil prices, Russia faces higher inflation from the decline in the ruble to 67 to the dollar on Jan. 28, 2015, western sanctions, capital flight, credit downgrade and reduced access to financing for Russian companies. Siluanov says $35 billion will be spent in 2015 for anti-crisis measures to stabilize the banking system, financing for companies with lack of access to financing in capital markets, and cushioning the impact of the crisis. Russia's economy is forecast to decline by 4% in 2015, by the Bank of Russia, with double digit inflation from a weaker ruble.

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LNG prices have declined in 2024 to a fraction of what they were from $70 per mmBTU in 2022 with the Ukraine war to about $10 in Jan 2024. India's state owned Petronet signed a 7.5 million ton LNG deal for 20 years with Qatar at the reduced prices. For the world it is a good thing as India moves to natural gas from coal when about 60% of the increased pollution in 2013-2021 is coming from India by some estimates. This translates into climate change. The goal is to go from 6% for natural gas in energy mix in 2013 to 15% by 2030. Few people realize what this means outside India- that every additional dollar that was added to the nation's energy bill was a dollar not going to essential building of modern rail and transport infrastructure, into new colleges, into new health infrastructure hospitals, into logistics for manufacturing hubs, into digital and modernizing the economy. This during the pandemic has meant free rations of food for hundreds of millions in the rural areas which have been continued into 2024. It meant accessing at the lowest possible price, buying at the right time, and buying oil and gas from a wide range of suppliers. WSJ's Megha Mandavia looks at this effort.  ...