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The Bureau of Labor Statiistics puts out a statistic each month, called the JOLTS for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which shows how many job openings there are in the US. This statistic stood at 2.2% for February 2009, down from 3% in Feb 2008, and this is 2.2% of all the jobs in the USA, which comes to about 3 million. The Conference Board's report shows 3.2 million online advertised vacancies as of March 2009. The odd thing is that there are so many advertised vacancies when the unemployment rate has shot up in the same year from 4.8% to 8.1%. The implications are serious. First there is a mismatch in qualifications. As jobs are lost in construction and the financial industry and in retail, new jobs are appearing in health care, education, government and accounting. This structural shift is happening quicker than the market can respond, or faster than labor retraining has time to respond. And compounding this the severe housing market leaves people unable to sell their homes and move. This makes for a less mobile labor market than the US has had in the past. With the government stepping in to ease the burden of unemployment there may be even less incentive to move. And those that move will have to accept the lower pay in new careers , and employers will have to settle for imperfect fits in filling vacancies. To reduce the mismatch in qualifications governments will have to ramp up their job retraining programs. ...

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Half of the 109 economists and housing analysts polled in October 2010 by MacroMarkets LLC, expect home prices to bottom in 2011, and half don't expect home prices to bottom till 2012. Backing this up is growing inventory in many markets. The Wall Street Journal's latest quarterly survey of housing market conditions in 28 major metropolitan areas showed inventories of unsold homes were up in 19 markets at the end of 3rd quarter 2010, compared to the prior year. The largest increases were in California- in Los Angeles, Sacramento and San Diego. Only parts of Texas, and Washington D.C, and some other areas which have shown decent job growth are an exception. In the Realtor's Report, median home price fell 2.4% to $171,700 in September 2010 from a year earlier. This data does not include the suspension of foreclosures due to title defects, which will further dampen prospects of a recovery in housing. This will affect New Jersey, Florida and other "judicial" states, where the banks must complete foreclosures through court. At the current sales pace it would take 10.7 months to sell the 4.04 million home inventory of unsold homes, according to the recent NAR report. Six to eight months is considered normal. This does not reflect the "shadow" inventory of homes in some stage of foreclosure, which is estimated at around 4 million, creating a problem that even current low rates for a fixed rate mortgage of 4.21% cannot solve....

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  A new German party called BSW,  Bundnis (Association) Sarah Wagenknecht, means Germany nationally could see a smaller Social Democrats party in parliament making way for the socialists who want to keep out migrants. Across East Germany a new party is challenging the AfD from the socialist side getting the protest vote against pro-migrant policies.The socialist BSW party is taking votes from the SPD and DIe Linke Left, from Free Democrats and Greens in the state parliamentary elections in East German states of Thuringia, Saxony, Brandenburg. Nationally SPD may be 15-20%, BSW 10%, and CDU 30%, AfD 10-15%, FDP 10%, Greens 10% in a new shape for German parliamentary representation. The AfD and far right in Germany is challenged by the BSW with both parties opposing policies that led to large scale migrant flows into Germany of Angela Merkel.  BSW is the socialist party of Sarah Wagenknecht which is opposed to migrants entering the country as it distracts from tackling the problems of the working class in Germany and burdens public services when needs are greater among the local communities.  It sees the ruling Christian Democrats, Social Democrat and Free Demcorats, Greens, as out of touch with the problems of working class Germans struggling to make a living. BSW also opposes the wars in Ukraine and Gaza for the same reasons as it takes away resources that are better used to tackle problems at home. The AfD party also opposes migrants but is seen as feeding on the grievances of people of old east German communist state who feel left behind by the reunification of Germany. As a socialist party BSW is for addressing problems of inequality and poverty, childcare, cost of living action, housing, and many of the problems of the working class. Mette Frederiksen Danish prime minister has combined socialist ideas with anti-migrant position in Denmark. A similar position is being taken in the US by the Biden Harris administration in the US by closing the Border with Mexico.  Who is Sahra Wagenknecht and the BSW? Bundnis Sarah Wagenknecht or Association of Sarah Wagenknecht is a socialist party that grew out of Sarah Wagenknecht's own experience growing up in the socialist state of the German Democratic Republic during her formative years in East Berlin.  Born to a Iranian father who disappeared in Iran, and a German mother she was raised by her grandparents. She was active in the socialist parties Die Linke group in parliament since 2000. She received her bachelors degree in philosophy and New German Literature at East Berlin Humboldt University. Followed by MA at Groningen University in philosophy of Marx-Hegel and a doctoral degree from TU Chemnitz in Economics. She was member of parliament in the Bundestag and leader of the Die Linke group. The twin 2009 financial crisis by banks pursuing excessive leverage profits and unethical dealings, the euro crisis that followed of state actors misrepresenting their finances, the rent seeking attitudes of finance, pharma, tech monopolies and other industries has led her along with Italian economist Mazzucato to question the existing system. ...

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There is cramped space for renters and limited supply of housing space per capita in Shanghai, China. After a decade of hyper building China still lacks affordable housing space. The residential space per capita in Shanghai is only 183 square feet or 17 square metres per person- about the size of a small room. And estimates by GK Dragonomics Research show one third of China's 225 million households lack kitchens and plumbing. At the same time housing is increasingly unaffordable for the middle class. Government restrictions on price increases reflect growing concern with the fact that the average Shanghai residential home sold for about $276,000 in 2011, even though annual per capita income in Shanghai is about $13,000. Prices for homes in Shanghai increased 2.6 times in 5 years, according to the Shanghai Urban Real Estate Surveyors Company. With the slowdown in construction developers are working through inventories, and more homes were sold than built in 2012, compared to about 1.5 units built for every unit sold in 2011. ...

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BW's report says Housing will go back to normal by 2012. This is a better case scenario. But there are serious downside risks and unknowns. A study done by Rogoff and Reinhart shows that it takes about 6 years or longer before things return to normal after a serious crisis. This could mean 2012 is the earliest things could return to normal. And this assumes that housing demand remains at about 1.5 million homes a year as in the past, and with only about half a million homes being built now as developers scale back the difference of 1 million homes would cut into the inventory to bring demand and supply back into balance. But changing demographics with an aging population and different needs, new frugality with buyers renting for longer, and the perception that homes are not a investment, slowing immigration, all factors that could change the nature of the market and demand in housing, could lead to things dragging out for longer. BW has assumed a more optimistic level of GDP numbers from Moody's Economy.com estimates made in May 2009, with GDP declining 3% in 2009, growing 1.4% in 2010, 4.7% in 2011, and 5.8% in 2012. These estimates are on soft ground because no one really knows for sure what will happen in anumber of areas in the years ahead. In terms of deflation and inflation in the years ahead, capacity utilization is at 68% but a look at the declines in manufacturing show that some of it will be a permanent loss as in the auto manufacturing base, export markets depend on how economies in Asia and other countries are performing, a new frugality and different consumer behaviour because of debt levels at 100% of GDP could permanently lower demand to levels different from that in the past. The regional nature of the recovery in housing will still be very much present, as areas with surging population growth and areas where housing price rises were modest, from Nashville to Austin, do a lot better than California and Florida....

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Karl Case, who jointly developed the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index says there is that downward stickiness thats keeping the housing market fragile. Its basically flat right now, with a lot of inventory waiting to be cleared. And it isn't going to bring this economy out of a recession in the manner it has done in previous recessions.

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Doubts about a decoupling of the Asian and European economy from the US economy. Opinion that the US economy could have a stronger impact on the export driven economies of Japan S. Korea and China than is usually thought and differet view from the one given recently in the Oct-Nov. report from the IMF, the OECD forecast and other reports suggesting only a modest impact of the housing crisis in the US and the credit crunch.

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Proof that this is not an ordinary deep recession like those in the post war period comes in the way foreign trade is reacting in this downturn. Already evidence of this has been seen in the way Germany has been affected because of slowing exports from China to the US. German exports to China have declined as the Chinese export model comes under severe stress. A similiar situation is playing out for Japan. Now new proof of the drop in foreign trade is emerging in Commerce Department figures. Combined exports and imports of the USA dropped 18% in 4 months July to November, to $326 billion from $398 billion. Two thirds of this drop was in imports. So China and Japan's exports to the USA are severely affected. Japan showed a 27% decline in exports in November, according to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, and imports dived 14%. According to calculations by the WSJ, Germany had 11.8% decline in foreign trade in November, and similiar numbers for France and Britain. Chief US Economist at IHS Global Insight, Nigel Gault, says this is going to be the worst global recession since World War II. Combined with what is happening to inventories, (see links) and what is happening in housing, banking, the auto industry, and other industries, the complications of non-transparent packaged financial products clogging the American financial system, the hugely indebted consumer (see links), and the $2.1 trillion and rising cost of the stimulus and bailouts needed by one estimate, suggest that the recovery forecast for 2009-2010 does not take into account all these simultaneously occurring patterns and developments working together. ...

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The economy is actually better, much better and economic facts support this says Krugman. He says the public understands and says that local conditions are much better, only that the public has a perception it is worse in other parts of the US away from them, which is not supported by the facts. This he calls a viberecession a feeling coming out of higher prices at retail and grocery stores and higher housing costs taking up a larger share of the budget sometimes over half.

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Having missed the housing bubble how likely is it that the Fed will catch a bubble in the stock market in the future?