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Overseas travel from Russia is cut down significantly as US and European Union restrict Russian planes from flying over their airspace. Many Russian planes in Europe were grounded after the invasion of Ukraine. The UAE and Central Asia, Turkey are frequent destinations for Russian planes following the invasion and the response of the US and the EU. Dubai is the single most frequent destination say the NYT.

During the pandemic China reduced overseas travel significantly. Fewer Americans and Europeans are traveling to China with the lockdowns and zero covid policies. The result is that people living in China and Russia have significantly less contact in 2022 with the outside world compared to 2019 the year before the pandemic. The flow of information is also affected with the state controlling more of the information that people see in Russia and China.

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UN sponsored talks taking place to let shipments of Ukraine grain to leave Black Sea ports. The way this would be done is by arranging a safe passage along a pathway that would be cleared of mines for ships to get from Black Sea ports to safer waters. This would still take weeks for the work needed to make this happen. Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and other Middle Eastern countries are heavily dependent on Ukrainian grain and warehouses in Ukraine need to be cleared for the coming harvest. The head of the UN Antonio Gutierrez and president Widodo of Indonesia had talks earlier with Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky to arrange this safe passage for ships in the Black Sea from Ukraine. This would also reduce tensions between Ukraine and Russia and start the process for an end to the war.

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Lonely Planet and other travel books contributed to all the travel overcrowding we see today. Tony Wheeler a co-founder has some advice- "go two streets over" and you can avoid a touristy spot for other attractive options. The Washington Post's Andrea Sachs talks to Lonely Planet travel books cofounder Tony Wheeler who started the company with his wife Maureen in 1972 after trips from London to Turkey and Iran by car. Their first book was Across Asia on the Cheap and started a new period of travel using hostels and cheaper accomodations and distant locations not travelled before by earlier generations such as Brazil and Argentina, distant parts of Asia and Africa. Wheeler is now 76 and lives in Melbourne and London. He sold his company in 2011, and it is now run by Red Ventures.

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Princes MBZ of the UAE and MBS of Saudi Arabia were seen as close with MBZ the mentor of Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia (MBS). Saudis and UAE differ on how high oil prices should go. Both MBZ MBS wider mindsets are close based on modernization of the Arab world. Oil price increases mean hardship for most of the world's population, a shift of wealth from more populous countries such as Turkey and India to countries with very small numbers of people as the UAE (9 million) and Saudi Arabia 35 million). It poses hardship in cost of living for people in Asia, Africa and in EU, the US. This calls for a vigorous effort to make the switch to solar energy to reduce inequality and wide disparities of wealth in Asia and the Middle East.

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Since 2002 when the AKP came to power consumer loans have surged from 2 billion Turkish lira to 129 billion lira or $81.55 billion. While this has created a larger middle class, the huge expansion of credit puts the economy at risk say analysts. Turkey is taking in imports at a rapid rate and the current account deficit is now 8.1% of GDP. The ratio of the current aaccount deficit to foreign exchange transactions is at 37%, according to Ankara based economic research foundation Tepav. This is significantly above the level reached before Turkey's last four economic crashes. The EU is Turkey's biggest market for exports, and the fastest growing market is the Middle East. With the economic growth sluggish in both regions the prospects for Turkish exports increasing is weak. Signs of excess are visible in Istanbul. A shopping mall for cars is being built the size of three sports stadiums with a test track on the roof called Autopia. Prime minister Erdogan talks about building a huge new shipping canal that would bypass the crowded shipping in the Bosporus. And the elections are being fought for the AKP to get more than 330 seats out of 550 in parliament, which would enable the AKP to change the constitution. This will be an unneeded distraction for the country at a time when economic policy needs a sharp focus to reduce the current account deficit before it is too late....

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Greg Ip points out that the stronger dollar in 2018 is creating serious problems for Argentina, and will have an effect on Turkey, Indonesia and other developing countries. Dollarization hurts because it increases debt as debt servicing becomes costlier with dollar denominated debt and imports denominated in dollars become costlier. The dollar has increased in importance in the global economy. This is why the economic growth has suffered in developing countries in 2018. It is also why president Trump believes he can cut off Iran from the U.S. banking system to increase chance of new negotiations to fix flaws in the Iran nuclear deal, says Ip.   Argentina has seen internal problems compounded by the rising dollar causing the peso to drop by 17% so far in 2018. 88% of Argentina's imports are denominated in dollars. A rising dollar means it costs more in pesos for imports. Argentina's different levels of government have $98 billion in dollar denominated debt, and private sector has an additional $68 billion, the total being a third of its GDP. A decline in the peso means this is harder to pay off. About 40% of world trade, according to Harvard economist Gita Gopinath, is invoiced in U.S. dollars, four times U.S. share of world trade, and developing countries together owe $2 trillion in dollar denominated debt according to BIS. This makes it harder for developing countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, India, Argentina, Brazil, as they now face rising oil prices in combination with a rising dollar. In Argentina a poor crop for soyabeans and other agricultural exports in 2018 creates additional woes.   ...

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The debate in Turkey on the rules issued by Turkish Airlines banning the use of certain types of lipstick by flight attendents and limiting the use of alcohol on additional routes beyond the routes to Islamic countries. Some of the rules were later retracted after criticism from the public. Turkish Airlines is 49% owned by the government. The airline plans to expand in European routes.

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What did Biden mean when he said- "history is watching," about his call for Ukraine aid to Congress. After a swift course of events and British withdrawal from Greece and Turkey by March 1947 this is the address to the US Congress made by US president Harry Truman on March 12, 1947, for $351 million in aid to Greece and Turkey facing Soviet threat to the two democracies after German armies had destroyed most of the infrastructure in Greece, thousand villages burned, 85% of children tubercular, with no savings, tragic conditions and facing political chaos. Truman said in this address aid was one tenth of one percent of the $341 billion spent to fight threats to democracy in World War II. "One of the primary objectives of the foreign policy of the United States is the creation of conditions in which we and other nations will be able to work out a way of life free from coercion. This was a fundamental issue in the war with Germany and Japan. Our victory was won over countries which sought to impose their will, and their way of life, upon other nations." "At the present moment in world history nearly every nation must choose between alternative ways of life. The choice is too often not a free one. One way of life is based upon the will of the majority, and is distinguished by free institutions, representative government, free elections, guarantees of individual liberty, freedom of speech and religion, and freedom from political oppression. The second way of life is based upon the will of a minority forcibly imposed upon the majority. It relies upon terror and oppression, a controlled press and radio; fixed elections, and the suppression of personal freedoms." "I believe that it must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures. I believe that we must assist free peoples to work out their own destinies in their own way."   ...

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U.S. president Obama called Libya and the policy of not following up on helping establish a stable democratic government in Libya his biggest mistake. Kristof of the NYT says people looking back would say Syria and not establishing safe zones is Obama's biggest mistake. He describes the 470,000 deaths in Syria as a huge tragedy that could have been avoided to a large extent by setting up safe zones. In addition the UN estimates that millions of refugees on a scale similar to the partition of India in 1947 were created.There is bipartisan opinion on this. Kristof cites General Cartwright's opinion in a conversation he had with Cartwright that this should have been done. Others who agree are Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton's Secretary of State, who spoke at the Democratic Convention about how America helped change her life as a young refugee after Russia's invasion of Czechoslovakia following Prague Spring. Albright says force should be used carefully so as not to aggravate the situation but action taken where needed, something that was done successfully under Bill Clinton in the Bosnian conflict following Serbia's ethnic cleansing policy under Milosevic. Not only that, with the diplomacy of ambassador Holbrooke Clinton was able to negotiate the peace accords that hold till today- a huge achievement.  Kori Schake, director of defense strategy in the George W. Bush White House also agrees. This would have improved U.S. relations with Turkey as this was a key Turkish request. And it would have reduced the dimensions of the refugee crisis in Europe, which has hurt the European Union. The Brexit "No" vote many in Britain have attributed to ads showing refugees in endless numbers streaming across Europe's borders. Similar ads were used in Austria's elections. Kristof points out that Secretary of State Kerry's job of negotiating a peace is difficult in these conditions. Another issue raised by Kristof is the lack of Obama's leadership in helping the refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, as he points out only 41% of this is funded. David Miliband former British Foreign Secretary, who heads the International Rescue Committee , says 200,000 Syrian kids are growing up in Lebanon without an education. George Washington counseled against getting involved in the wars on the European continent for a young nation, this advice was not followed in the Reagan and other administrations without showing the carefulness needed before action is taken. As Hillary Clinton has once pointed out the situation has resembled a pendulum swinging in the other direction under president Obama, and former Defense Secretary, Panetta, has expressed similar views. Hillary Clinton and Leon Panetta, Gates, Gen. Jones, served in the first term of the Obama administration, many of these mistakes were made in the second term by president Obama and his White House advisors Dennis McDonough, Valerie Jarrett who clearly lacked the deep foreign policy experience of Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta (who served under Bill Clinton), and Gates who served under many presidents). ...

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In the most recent Global Financial Stability Report out in Sept. 2011, the increase in the ratio of a country's outstanding credit to GDP is highlighted as a key warning light indicator for country economies. An increase in this ratio of over 5% signals a warning light according to the IMF. It tells us that borrowing is expanding at significantly faster rate than the growth of the economy. Using this indicator would have set a warning light up for the U.S. before the 2008 mortgage crisis, and a warning light well before the financial crises in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The outstanding credit to GDP ratio went up for China by 24 percentage points in 2009, with 4% percentage point increase in 2010. The ratio was up 30 percentage points in Hong Kong for 2010. The warning light is also up for Turkey and Vietnam. Capital inflows into countries that can be suddenly reversed, and overvalued currencies are a danger for emerging market countries and act as supplemental indicator warning lights. Brazil and South Africa have overvalued currencies. Turkey has high capital inflows. Only a small portion of this is foreign direct investment, the rest helps support a high amount of lending and credit provided by the banks. That a significant portion of this is in short term borrowing poses additional risks, as evident in the 1997 Asian financal crisis for S. Korea, Thailand and Malaysia....

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In the March 29, 2009, local elections in Turkey the AK party led by Mr Erdogan got only 39% of the vote down from the 47% it obtained in the 2007 general elections. Unemployment is 13.6% and the Turkish currency's value dropped, and GDP is declining. Mr Erdogan's claims that the global meltdown had not touched Turkey irked voters, and other local issues and parties also resulted in a loss of support. Erdogan is seen as aloof and losing touch with the people compared to the years when AK was on the rise.

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President Obama and President Maliki of Iraq meet at the White House in 2013- both in an awkward position. Maliki having to ask for American assistance in fighting Al Quaeda in western Iraq after insisting on America's complete withdrawal two years earlier. Obama having to face uncomfortable questions on the withdrawal and the current situation after American sacrifices in Iraq during the Bush period. The situation in 2011-2013 involved use of Iraqi airspace for the government of the previous Iranian president Ahmadinejad to supply the Assad regime. Maliki also opposed sanctions against the Assad regime. The visit by Maliki and requests for aid and increasing investment in the oil industry, comes as Iran under president Rouhani improves relations with Turkey in late 2013 to head off increasing Sunni-Shiite sectarianism and conflict in Syria, Iraq and other parts of the Middle East.

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Turkey's trade deficit increased to $10.2 billion in June 2011, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. This is almost twice the trade deficit only one year ago in June 2010 when it was $5.7 billon. Imports went up 42%, and exports showed annual increase of 19%. Warnings of a "hard landing" were made by Standard & Poor's. Turkey's economy is on a unsustainable path with the economy growing 11% in the first quarter. The IMF forecast is for the economy to grow at 4.6% in 2011, compared to 8.9% in 2010, which suggests a sharp slowing down of growth for the remainder of the year. Concern is also rising because Turkey has fallen behind in competitiveness. The manufacturing sector depends on large inputs of imported raw materials and semifinished products. A breakdown of the trade figures show 71% of the $10.2 billon deficit was from intermediary goods including raw materials, and 28% from capital and consumption goods. Efforts to reduce the current account deficit were expected by analysts after the recent presidential elections, but this has not happened. It appears that the Turkish government is taking a wait and see attitude for possible sluggish growth worldwide and not taking actions of its own that are necessary....

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Coronavirus infections peak in Spain by April 4 and the number of deaths at 809 in one day is a drop from earlier in the week. Madrid is hit hard. The number of infections in one day dropped from 7472 to 7026 on Saturday April 4. Officials are looking for ways to get masks for all citizens as a way to prepare for an eventually ease restrictions. It is virtually impossible to get masks in Spain. Lockdown has been extended to April 25. 

Masks are mandatory in Austria, Czech Republic, Israel and Turkey.

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A Trump ally, Senator Graham says president Trump is going to slow the withdrawal from Syria that was planned. He says the president learned from his trip to Iraq first hand about conditions in the region. He is now consulting allies about how best to accomplish the withdrawal gradually without the risks involved for the Kurds, Turkey and problems in Syria and Iraq that the U.S. has experienced.

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The Muslim Brotherhood is thrust into a critical role as economic policymaker after winning the parliamentary elections in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood's foreign policy advisor, Essam El-Haddad, says it gave the IMF its tentative approval for a $3.2 billion loan to Egypt. Haddad says it was a very, very short time for the learning process to occur about the economic issues facing Egypt and the IMF. Foreign investment peaked in 2007 at $13.7 billion. It is now a small fraction of this and tourism earnings have declined to a third of what they were before. The Brotherhood cites the example of Turkey where the Islamist Justice and Development Party formed the government in 2002. At the time Turkish inflation was at 55%, the currency Turkish Lira had lost 51% of its value and GDP fell by 5.7%. Turkey has seen high economic growth in the last decade.

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Brazil's debt at 57% of GDP which is not likely to decline in 2014, is a concern for analysts at Moody's. Heavy spending and lower tax revenues with high interest rates will increase the deficit to 3.7% in 2014 from 2.48% in 2012, according to central bank estimates. Inflation is about 5.98%. Trade surplus is lower at about $2.6 billion for 2013. Brazil's foreign reserves are much higher than Argentina at $359 billion, ten times short term debt, Argentina at 109% of short term debt and Turkey at 84% of short term debt- which protects Brazil compared to its reserves in the 1997 financial crisis.

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During a trip to Italy for a G-7 foreign ministers meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson makes a symbolic stop at a memorial in Lucca, where 560 men, women and children were massacred by the Nazis in World War II. Tillerson said at the memorial that "we rededicate ourselves to holding to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents anywhere in the world." Also present at the memorial were Frederica Mogherini, the European Union's chief of foreign policy, and Susanne Wasum-Rainer, German ambassador to Italy. British foreign secretary Boris Johnson said Europe supported the U.S. A meeting on Syria is being added to the G-7 meetings which includes the foreign ministers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, United Arab Emirates.

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The move by Houthi rebels- belonging to an offshoot of Shiite Islam- from the north of Yemen to Sanaa and then to Taiz and Aden in the south of Yemen draws a Saudi response. Yemen borders Saudi Arabia in the south. The Saudis launch airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. The Persian Gulf states, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Pakistan support the Saudis, creating the potential for a wider sectarian conflict in the region. The withdrawal of U.S. influence in the region under the Obama administration leads to the collapse of the Arab Spring, the Saudis pursuing an independent foreign policy, the rise of Islamic State militants, Turkey following its own policy, emboldening Iran in extending its influence in the Middle East, and creating a situation of wider sectarian Sunni-Shiite conflict throughout the Middle East. It creates a situation in which the U.S. is involved on the Iranian side in support of the government in Baghdad supported by Iran against Islamic State militants, and at the same time on the side of the Sunni coalition in Yemen as the U.S. withdraws from drone bases in Yemen. At the same time the Obama administration finds itself distancing itself from Israel as it negotiates alongside France and Britain with Iran on a nuclear agreement....

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The lack of U.S. leadership and slow response by the Obama administration to the rapidly developing situation in the region risks spillover effects from Syria to affect the entire Middle East. Russia's stakes are minimal in the region because it is simply trying to retain some of its old influence in the region, yet it is having an outsized influence in the region through its early military assistance to the Assad regime. The stakes are much higher for the U.S. because of the decade spent and resources invested in Iraq, higher for Iraq with its need for civil harmony between Shiite and Sunni communities, for Turkey with its large Kurdish minority and flow of refugees from the border with Syria, for Saudi Arabia as a defender of Sunni interests. Without active U.S. leadership the situation is allowed to drift and young people of the Free Syrian Army are basically taking on the bulk of the role of resolving the situation. France's Sarkozy and Britain's Cameron offered this kind of leadership in Libya as Libya's young people struggled to resolve the situation there. ...

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The near collapse of Iran's state owned gas company following stricter Western sanctions and withdrawal of Total and other oil companies. Iran sits on top of the second largest gas reserves in the world but is able to export gas only to Turkey and Azerbaijan. Qatar which borders one of Iran's large gas fields is developing its side of the field with technology and investment from Shell and other foreign oil companies. The CEO of the company, Hamid Reza Araghi, told the Mehr News Agency that the company had declared bankruptcy, with debt of about $4 billion. Gas revenues have dropped to about $10 million a day and the company suffers from mismanagement.

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Ben Hubbard of NYT looks at the difficult situation in the Turkish economy in 2023 with high inflation and the costs of rebuilding after the earthquake.