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The Cruz campaign depended on its success in Iowa on a well organized grassroots campaign, and the large turnout of evangelicals estimated at about 62 percent. The record turnout of about 185,000 for the Republican caucuses showed the depth of participation in this election. About 46% of the voter turnout was from Republicans participating for the first time. Trump's poor grassroots organization, missteps including controversial statements by Trump denigrating women- leading to him opting out of the last Republican debate raising doubts about his candidacy- combined to put Trump struggling for second place, with Rubio finishing only one percentage point behind. Cruz had 28%, Trump 24% and Rubio 23%. One of the results of this election is the poor performance of governors Jeb Bush, Christie and Kasich, who combined polled less votes than a neurosurgeon Carson. The anti-establishment fervour was evident with the support for Cruz, Trump and Carson of about two thirds of the vote, reflecting anti-establishment views. Cruz's win was remarkable, say analysts, considering his opposition to special interest lobbies, including the ethanol lobby in Iowa supported by Governor Branstad. It was also remarkable because of the months of media coverage for Trump's statements and exaggerations, and the tacit support for Trump from the establishment Republican party, including Senator Grassley of Iowa and Governor Branstad. Cruz now heads on to the other states, including the six southern states voting on March 1, where he will be favored, with a well financed campaign using grassroots contributions....

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The Journal says Santorum needs to fit his economic point about helping manufacturing into a broader economic policy, and broaden his support base beyond the social conservative base. It says about Romney that he needs to find an authentic message that appeals to conservatives beyond catchphrases about repealing Obamacare. The problem it says is both candidates do not appeal to the whole Republican party. One candidate Romney lacks the fervor and firm convictions and the other Santorum has fervor and firm convictions about social issues, but can't do the same for economic issues and the other concerns of Republican voters.

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The recent appointment of fast food executive Andrew Puzder as Labor Secretary has caused great concern among union leaders. Puzder supports a $9 minimum wage compared to $15 supported by Democrats. Unions now represent 7% of the labor force, down from a high of 20% during Reagan's time when Reagan appointed a construction company executive as Labor Secretary and cut regulations.  Globalization has thinned the ranks of workers in unions. And the failure of Democratic administrations to stem the shift of factories overseas to China, Mexico and other places, as part of global supply chains focussed on cost, has weakened Democratic support among workers since the period of Bill Clinton. It eroded to the point where Obama won 65% of support among unions and Hillary Clinton won 56% in 2016. Interestingly the Republican Romney gained 33% versus 37% for Trump, showing voters were more inclined to move away from Democrats and only a smaller number willing to support Republicans, but the shift enough to give Republicans a win in 2016 for the presidency. The figures are from a Election Day survey of trade union AFL-CIO, and a larger proportion in midwestern states showed disaffection with policies from Clinton to Obama. In fact Obama spent years promoting another free trade agreement TPP that favored tech more than auto and older industries, just as Bill Clinton had promoted NAFTA, without giving thought to what this was doing to its worker base of support. A similar situation happened with Social Democrats in Germany as a SPD administration moved to the centre and handed Christian Democrats led by Merkel a win in parliamentary elections. As Democrats such as former Labor Secretary Reich, a professor at UC Berkeley who served under Bill Clinton, describe the problems of working class people their is less reflection on the impact of the changes from globalization and how Democrats handled or mishandled it, and more on the politics between the two parties.   ...

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The author is a resident scholar of the American Enterprise Institute. He says conservatism and the Republican Party have failed to recognize the problems of the American working class, leading to the rise of Trump. He adds that it will take more than one election cycle for Republicans to change this, it will take a lot more effort lasting many years. Speaker Ryan arranged a forum on working class problems, poverty and lack of opportunity, but only after Trump had made appeals to older white working class Americans who have done poorly in the last decade, making him the front runner in the race, and relegated Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to single digit support.

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The purchase of F/A-18 aircraft by Germany capable of delivering nuclear weapons stationed in Germany is critical to keeping the nuclear deterrance and the "nuclear sharing" agreement with the U.S. Older aircraft, the Tornadoes are now 40 years old. Chancellor Merkel has supported the purchase but this is now being called into question by its junior partner in the coalition government the SPD.  Leaders of the SPD party say they would block the purchase of 45 Boeing Company made F/A-18 jets proposed by Merkel's defense minister. Under NATO's nuclear sharing agreement going back to the 1950's it is believed there are about 180 B61 tactical nuclear bombs in rope, some 20 in Germany and spread out over Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. President Trump has said the U.S. will withdraw from a treaty with Russia that limits the presence of nuclear missiles in Europe because Russia is not living up to the agreement. This could lead to an arms race. The issue is leading to the beginning of a fundamental debate about nuclear armanent and military spending of a type that has not happened in Europe since 1982 when a rebellion in the SPD over the stationing of nuclear weapons in Europe led to the ouster of Chancellor Helmut Schmidt.  The Christian Democrats view the purchase of the F/A-18 at a time when Russia is updating its nuclear deterrance as fundamental to NATO and nuclear sharing. The SPD's leaders say nuclear sharing does not mean the need to host nuclear weapons, and give the example of Canada, a NATO ally that does not have U.S. weapons on its soil. ...

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The first Democratic debate for the presidential election of 2016 gives Hillary Clinton a huge boost. Democratic voters find her to be more convincing in the debate than Sanders. Without Biden in the race a Oct 2015 ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Clinton draws 64 percent support among Democrats, and Sanders 25 percent, with O'Malley, Webb and Chafee less than 2%. Even on questions such as who "is closer to you" on the issues, who "understands the problems of people like you," Clinton beats Sanders by 53-36 percent and 51-37 percent in the poll. On honesty she is about even with Sanders. The careful low key approach getting a feel for the voters and their concerns appears to be paying off for Hillary Clinton where it really counts. The picture of Clinton in the media accounts is not affecting Democratic voters.

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Karl Rove, advisor to President George W. Bush, and organizer behind American Crossroads political action committee, says the election will be decided by the higher support for Romney among independents and the high turnout of Republican voters. The prediction for the voter turnout among Republicans is 36% Republican vs. 35% Democratic, according to Gallup. This compares with the 39% Republican and 37% Democratic in 2004, and 39% Democratic 29% Republican in 2008. The early and absente ballot voting advantage has significantly gone down almost by half for Democrats as more Republicans cast early votes in swing states like Ohio. Closing statements and crowds also appear to confirm this trend. Rove sees this as 51% to 48% favoring the Republicans. The addition of swing states - Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania also appears to suggest that a broader movement is underway that is happening right now in the final week before the election on Nov. 6, 2012. Rove focusses on the numbers. A behavioural assessment shows the importance in this campaign of the centrist position adopted by Romney in the closing months of the campaign; the selection of Ryan which gave Romney support from the Republican conservative base so that he could talk freely about his record in the liberal state of Massachusetts to independent voters and women, and most important the clear message to voters focussed on a five point plan to get the economy recovery were critical in shaping these numbers....