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A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll shows that 58% of people polled want the President to worry more about keeping the budget deficit down even though this may mean alonger recession and asloer recovery. Only 35% say they favoring boosting the economy. What may be vague here is what a longer recession here means, its length from 1 to 2 years or 3-4 years, and what boosting the economy means; when the stimulus package has already been passed and its impact has still to be felt as a lot of the money is not yet spent. Democrats are evenly split with 50% favoring boosting the economy, and 42% urging a deficit focus. Republicans overwhelmingly are worried about the budget deficit. Independents by 2 to 1 also are worried about the deficit. Overall 31% of those polled say job creation and economic growth should be the highest priority for the government. And 19% say deficit and government spending should be the highest priority. About 16% say they see health care as the biggest priority, and 14% said national security and terrorism should be the highest priority. This means that the Obama administration will have two conflicting concerns throughout the early years in keeping the stimulus measures in place, and at the same time paying attention to the budget deficit....

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The chairman of India's Tata Group, Ratan Tata, talks to the WSJ's Paul Beckett. Tata Group now employs 357,000 people and gets 65% of saes from overseas. He describes the difficulties with the Jaguar and land Rover acquisition. And says Tata Motors did very well to extinguish $3 billion in debt arising from the acquisitions by raisng new capital, liquidating some assets and doing away with loose practices. The experience at the new location in Gujarat for the Tata Nano minicar is very positive and production is planned for January 2010. He has some words for India's government, saying that India will remain an agricultural country unless the government finds some better way to fairly and justly compensate farmers for their land where industrializaton is takng place. He sees an alien view of industrial development in W. Bengal and says Tata is better off from being away from that place. For the US and Indian firms operating in the outsourcing space he has some advice. He wants Indian companies to be sensitive to the American unemployment situation, the stress being felt by jobless people, and that its important not to be aggressive and alien to pain that is going on in the USA. Ratan Tata is a graduate of Cornell University in aeronautical engineering, and closely connected with the University. ...

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Caterpillar is asking workers at its Canadian plant to accept a large cut in wages and benefits. Wages and benefits at Caterpillar's rail equipment plant in LaGrange, Illinois, are less than 50% of the costs at the Caterpillar locomotive assembly plant in London, Ontario. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. manufacturing labor costs per unit of output were 13% lower in 2010 than in 2000. This compares with an increase of 2.3% in Germany, increase of 18% in Canada, and increase of 15% in South Korea. Caterpillar is also asking for more flexible work rules at the Canadian plant. The flip side of this is that U.S. workers are earning significantly less in manufacturing, especially considering inflation, and the middle class is shrinking in the U.S. At the same time wages in the U.S. that are more competitive with wages in Mexico and China with flexible work rules and use of automation and technology, is helping to reverse the shrinking of the manufacturing sector in the U.S....

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Prime minister Matteo Renzi focussed on some critical aspects of how other Europeans see the negotiations in the Greece bailout in June 2015. Considering that the EU had relaxed conditions for the surplus, a critical condition for reducing austerity programs in Greece and focussing on reforms, and considering the high unemployment not insisted on further cuts to the public sector employees, the conditions put forward focussing on reforms such as collection of taxes are seen as essental by other eurozone countries, including Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Renzi told II Sole 24 Ore- "The point is that Greece may get different conditions, but it has to abide by the rules. It's not the case that we have taken early retiremnt pensions away from the people of Italy just to allow the Greeks to have them! We have brought in labor reform, but it is not the case that, with our money, a number of Greek shipowners can continue not to pay taxes.. I could go on." If he went on he would cite the tax collection laws and methods in Italy which were changed under prime minister Monti to tackle tax evasion in Italy, with no effort to collect the $11 billion in estimated taxes that are not collected in Greece. Italy banned cash payment above 1000 euros and started a cross referencing initiative to tackle tax evasion under premier Monti. Greece took up tax evasion legislation in 2010 in parliament but opposition from many groups led to no action. In 2012 Labor minister Elsa Fornero broke down in tears as she described raising the retirement age for women to 66 in the private sector from 60, saying this was to prevent "collective impoverishment." Italy lacks childcare and older women help with childcare for grandchildren. Renzi was probably thinking of these changes in Italy. He went on to say- " If there is a mass get-out clause over the rules, what will happen in Spain in October? And in France in a year and half? It is one thing to ask for flexibility amid abidance by the rules. It is another thing to think that one is the craftiest of them all, in other words to be the that does not abide by the rules. We want them to save Greece. But the people of Greece also have to want that." On tax evasion and other issues for long term financial health Greece is seen as not following basic financial rules for sustaining the euro....

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It is not clear whether Citigroup is off the problem list of banks, banks which rate a 4 or a 5 on the scale of 1 to 5. This could change even now after the stress tests. Here's why. Since late 2007, Citigroup has more than $50 billion in write-downs and loan defaults. The recent stress test of the 19 largest banks produced results that showed additional large losses looming over Citigroup, and questions are raised how Citigroup passed. The test found that estimated losses could reach $104.7 billion in loan losses through 2010 under the government's worst case scenario, and face nearly $20 billion in losses on its credit card portfolio. Yet the Fed's conclusion that Citigroup needed to bolster its capital by only $5.5 billion to withstand another economic shock did not reflect these facts. Investors and analysts also saw Citigroup as being in much worse shape than the other banks. THe FDIC did not agree with the Fed's conclusion. Only the Comptroller of the Currency agrees with Citigroup CEO Pandit, that the Citi model is not broken and just needs more time. THe FDIC wanted the rating lowered for the Citibank unit, and sparred with the Comptroller of the Currency over this. The FDIC has 305 banks on the "problem" list, and would like to add Citigroup to this list, so that it could keep a tighter review of what is going on at Citigroup. FDIC is helping finance a $300 billion loss sharing agreement with Citigroup, and has large exposure to Citigroup. FDIC's Bair thinks Citigroup has not moved fast enough to get rid of unwanted assets which might cause problems if the economy deteriorates, and would like to see a change in management. FDIC officials have approached former US Bancorp CEO, Mr Grundhofer, who is highly regarded in the industry, as a possible replacement. One reason being that while most of the problems of Citi stem from consumer loans, Pandit's experience is in investment banking, and he has not moved fast enough to get rid of risky and unwanted assets. He has failed to bring in managers with experience in handling the kinds of problems Citigroup faces in this crisis. With the FDIC's Bair having anticipated the crisis earlier than other regulators, the FDIC is expected to get additional powers in the new regulatory structure. This may result in tighter supervision of Citigroup. It also shows gaps and flaws in the stress tests that let some banks off too lightly, and make them vulnerable to the next episode in this crisis. ...

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This very exceptional report from the city of Recife in Brazil's northeastern state of Pernambuco, comes from WSJ reporters Johnson and Jelmayer. It is about the physicians Vanessa van der Linden Mota, and Ana van der Linden Mota, her mother, who first alerted health authorites in Pernambuco about the cases of encephaly and the links to the mosquito Zika Virus in Recife, Brazil. From 147 recorded encephaly cases, and babies born with shrunken skulls or calcified brain structure in 2014 in Brazil, the cases reported jumped to 4,180 suspected cases. Estimates of cases by 2020 for such cases run up to 50,000 to 100,000 if the problem is not tackled. The family of the van der lindens come from Dutch-German immigrants settled in northeastern Brazil, a less developed region of the country. The family is unique with five doctors including neuro pediatricians Ana and Vanessa working in public hospitals in Recife , and father Helio a neuro surgeon. The entire state of Pernambuco has a total of 15 neuropediatricians, according to this report. The Ebola Virus emerged in countries such as Sierra Leone and Liberia which suffered from war and neglect of health infrastructure. Here in Pernambuco state, as reporters Johnson and Jelmayer point out, the problem stems from neglect in public health infrastructure, especially sanitation and drinking water for shantytown dwellers and vast majority of poor residents in a city of 3.5 million, typical of developing countries in Latin America and South Asia, where development in some parts of the country have lagged far behind, and where needed public health infrastructure investments have not been made. Lack of dependable drinking water means collecting water in containers that are susceptible to breeding mosquitoes, such as the mosquitoes carrying the Zika Virus. A public debate on the lack of attention by socialist and worker's party led governments to this type of infrastructure and transportation services was already underway in Brazil leading to widespread protests in 2013. A $226 million investment in a soccer stadium in Recife, and similar investments in other smaller cities in the northeast were made under the Worker's Party government. Large investments for the Olympics now come as the economy contracted in 2015, and Brazil is hurt by another boom-bust cycle with the slowdown in China- with fiscal austerity policies, a loss of a third in the value of its currency, and the popularity rating of the newly elected government from the Worker's Party in single digits....

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R.E.O. is lingo for "Real Estate Owned," the term for homes taken in by banks that are from foreclosures. Reomac is the industry group that specializes in the sales of such homes. And "REO tsunami" refers to the flood of some 700,000 bank properties now on the market nationwide. Therre were just 100,000 in 2006. In February, nearly 45% of the home sales natinwide were called short sales in which homeowners under duress sell a property for less than their mortgage, according to the National Associaiton of Realtors. These sales have worsened a natiowide decline in home values, as REO homes typically sell at a 20% discount. Reomac just held its 2009 conference at Palm Desert. The extravagance and the excess at the conference is amazing considering that the whole country is facing this crisis and California is one of the hardest hit states. From the way people are trying to get these properties one could not imagine that the rest of the country is going through a crisis, and millions in developing countries might at this very moment be plunged below the poverty line!...

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China's GDP growth accelerated slightly to 6.9 percent in the 1st quarter of 2017, after five consecutive quarters of GDP growth at 6.7-6.8%, according to government data. This reflected larger use of steel in the construction industry and more mortgages issued by the state controlled banking sector. Government officials say productivity is improving helping GDP growth, with closing of less efficient manufacturing plants. Industrial production increased 7.6% in March 2017, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The government is trying to control higher lending and reduce the backlog of bad loans at banks. Higher growth helps to reduce the bad loans at banks from the earlier period after 2008 financial crisis, improving financial stability.

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GM takes a $600 million charge in the 1st quarter with the decision by CEO Mary Barra to close the plant in St. Petersburg, Russia. GM's market share in Russia had declined from over 9% to 7.4%, and the sharp decline in the Russian auto market made Russia an unattractive proposition as GM focusses on improving profitability in Europe.

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Hilsenrath describes how the Federal Reserve missed the signs of the mortgage financial crisis of 2008, the bubble economy, and how low interest rates and other actions of the Fed to rescue the economy led to a situation which hurt savers. The lack of a serious plan for homeowner rescue as part of the actions by the government further hurt the working and middle class. The rescue also lacked credibility because the banks ended up becoming bigger than they were, and no action was taken in the U.S. which had been pushed by the U.S. in similiar situations overseas- for example on South Korean banks for overborrowing during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.  At the 2014 Boston Fed sponsored conference on Inequality, Fed chairman Janet Yellen described what she called the largest inequality in the U.S. not seen since the 19th century. The average net worth of the lower half of the distribution, said Yellen, of 62 million households, was $11,000, and a quarter of them had zero net worth. These were the shocking statistics that propelled two unlikely outsiders forward- Donald Trump to the Republican nomination for president, and Bernie Sanders who coming close to getting the Democratic nomination settled for a big part of setting the Democratic agenda supported by nominee Clinton in 2016. ...

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About a quarter of Michigan counties are among the top 20% of counties in America for increase in unemployment and deaths per 1000 residents from the coronavirus. Only Massachusetts and New Jersey have fared worse. This WSJ analysis was based on federal government county level unemployment data. In May Michigan's 21.2% unemployment rate was the third highest in America after Nevada and Hawaii, two states where tourism drop hit hard. In a place like Muskegon the loss of about a million tourists and loss of jobs at Howmet Aerospace hit hard. Recovery of tourism could bring down the rate quickly, yet manufacturing will take longer.

Other states with many counties in the top 20% for deaths from virus and unemployment are Indiana, Ohio, New Hampshire, Alabama, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, New York.

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Leaders of Germany's federal states agreed on cost sharing to settle refugees from Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz said that Germany will provide $2 billion in federal aid to German states for accomodating and integrating Ukrainian refugees.  Refugees from Germany will be able to receive basic welfare benefits similar to the welfare aid received by Germans of 400 euros per month under Hartz welfare program. By integrating them into Germany's social security system the refugees can integrate and stay in Germany, Scholz added. This means access to more resources, to job centers, health care and German language courses.

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The CBO annual report on the budget and economic outlook shows a deficit of $1.1 trillion for the current fiscal year, a decline of $200 billion from the prior year. Health care spending is a key factor driving the deficit. Cost of spending on healthcare programs is expected to double in the next 10 years, increasing by 8% a year and reaching $1.8 trillion in 2022.

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A recent Deutsche Bank study points to the pro-cyclical nature of oil prices in this decade where oil price increases do not lead to decreased worldwide consumption. The IEA forecast is for 1.64 million barrels of oil a day in increased coonsumption in 2013 compared to 2011, which hides a drop in consumption of 640,000 barrels a day in OECD countries. That is offset by higher demand in China, the Middle East and Russia. Middle East consumption is about 80% of consumption in China, and oil price increases lead to higher growth in these countries and Russia leading to increased oil consumption reinforcing a pro-cyclical cycle. What is not clearly understood is how this changes with weaker economic growth. Additional factor to consider is future increasing growth of oil consumption in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam and other developing countries that offset reductions in Chinese consumption as China's growth rate slows.