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The average price of a smartphone in India in 2022 was $206 excluding taxes, Apple's smartphones go for $898. With discounts Apple is now bringing the price down to below $500. In 2019 phones over $500 made up 3% of the market. This has increased to 6% in 2022. Apple is counting on this share of the market going up and prices being brought down below $500 to build a larger share of the market. Its market in 2023 is about 5% in India compared to 22% in China.

In China Apple has its own stores. It is only now opening its first store in Mumbai. This and building manufacturing facilities in India could be the way to increase its share of the market in India to where it provides an alternative comparable to the Chinese market. This is the first time after the pandemic and the supply chain issues, the idea of friendshoring, that Apple is reorienting its policy for making India a key part of its supply chain and market. 

 

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China's tariff of 25% on cars imported from the U.S. is a  poor target says this report in WSJ, as most of the cars China imports from the U.S. are made by BMW, Mercedes and Tesla. China already has a 25% tariff on U.S. made cars.

The German cars are made at the Spartanburg plant and other plants of BMW and Mercedes in the southern U.S.

Tesla cars would also be hurt yet Tesla has supported the Trump administration tariffs as the existing 25% tariff makes it harder for Tesla to compete in the Chinese market. U.S. and European carmakers cannot hold more than 50% foreign ownership under China's rules in its auto market. As a result U.S. carmakers already have joint ventures in China and make most of the cars they sell inside China.

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China's Finance Ministry is having a difficult time controlling local governments using local government financing vehicles to invest in more infrastructure, airports roads and subways. One such city is Wuhan which plans six subway lines, three bridges over the Yangste river and a new airport. Much of the money comes from land sales. The Finance Ministry in a 2013 report pointed to the unreliability of land sales for future borrowing as the property market is slowing, and because it is highly unpopular to requisition land for land sales. This matters because the IMF says debt is growing faster in China than when Japan, South Korea and the U.S. fell into deep recessions at different times between the late 1980's and 2009. Local government debt accounts for one fourth of the increase in China's domestic debt since 2008. New rules by China's bond agency in Dec. 2014 prevents investors from using low grade debt to borrow cash. In the past local governments found a way around the central governments effort to curb growth of debt by restructuring the local government vehicles or some other way, as Wuhan has done. Wuhan Urban is the local government financing vehicle for Wuhan and its debt increased by 20% in 2013. Wuhan's mayor, Tang Liangzhi, is pushing construction to the point where he is known as Mr. Dig, Dig. One reason for China's slowing growth below 6-7% is the need to control the growth of debt. Local government debt in China reached 36% of GDP in 2013, double the figure in 2008, and will increase to 52% of GDP in 2019, according to the IMF. And the increase is not proportionally delivering the same results as before. JP Morgan estimates that over 4 units of borrowing are needed in 2015 for every unit of investment, compared to less than 2 units of borrowing for every unit of investment in 2007. PRC Macro Advisors of Hong Kong says half of the borrowing by financing vehicles goes to pay interest on existing debt in 2014. There are 8000 such local government financing vehicles in China today each competing to build infrastructure in its neighborhood, in the case of Wuhan to build a computing back office for financial companies and as transportation hub, even though its uncertain whether this will be realized or not. The problem is that alternative investments as an opportunity cost are being neglected, the hospital not being built as China's population ages with underinvestment in health care, and the private company with better returns that is unable to find financing. A classic example of crowding out of better return investments as a glut of housing and road/bridge/ airport infrastructure gets built. The central government is wary but faced with slowing growth pushes problems down the road, what experts call a Japan syndrome....

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Fiat CEO Marchionne's tells Fiat managers to focus on export markets and to look beyond, Italy and the European market. In a presentation to prime minister Mario Monti he emphasizes the capacity utilization at Fiat's Italian plants of 40% in 2012.

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Chile and the dilemma of copper exports taking up 57.8% of exports in 2009, from 54.4% in 2005, making 15.5% of GDP. With the surge in China's growth Latin America remains as tied to commodities exports as it has been for decades, facing boom and bust cycles and not able to diversify into value added and industrial products. A regional economic commission says in a report, that Latin American and Caribean exports were over 50% in raw materials in 1980 and declined to 27% in 1999, and back up to 39% in 2009.

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Tax changes for autombiles as part of a"fiscal correction" were announced by the Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee. The base excise tax on most goods manufactured in India was raised from 10% to 12%. The excise tax on larger cars with gasoline engines above 1.2 litres or diesel engines above 1.5 litres was raised to 24% from 22%. The customs tax on imported cars and SUV's over $40,000 and gasoline engine over 3000 cubic centimetres, or diesel engine over 2500 cubic centimetres was increased to 75% from 60%.

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The political risk in China as the change of leadership takes place in 2012, and with the removal of Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai. The slowing of manufacturing activity and slowdown in growth expected in 2012-2014. Export growth declines to 6.8% from 14.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011. Quarterly surveys by the central bank shows demand for loans is dropping. And the HSBC purchasing managers index shows a reading of 48.1 in March, declining from 49.6% in February, showing shrinking manufacturing activity in China- anything less than 50 means contraction is taking place.

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Coca-Cola will invest $5 billion in India by 2020 as part of a plan to invest $30 billion in capacity and marketing in emerging economies. The plan is designed to double sales revenue and volume by 2020. Coca-Cola today has 60% of the Indian soft drinks market, according to Euromonitor Intenational, because it also owns the brands of Parle Agro Pvt. Ltd- Thums Up, Limca, Gold Spot and Maaza. The Parle acquisition gave Coca-Cola a bottling and marketing system on which to base its expansion.

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Chernobyl nuclear disaster area in Ukraine as it is today. Cesium's half-life is 30 years and strontium's half-life is 29 years. Scientific estimates show that it takes about 10-13 half-lives, or about 300 years, for the radioactive effects to disappear and for life to return to the area. The contaminated area around the Chernobyl reactor is about 15,000 square miles or about the size of Switzerland. This place gives some idea of what can be expected for the area around the Fukushima nuclear reactor in Japan. A reporter visits this area.

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Sony's strategies to return the smartphone business to profitability in 2015. Mr. Totoki, head of the smartphone division, says Sony will accept decline in sales of 20-30% to accomplish this. The smartphone division is seen as critical in the internet era. This means cutting the number of lowend models and scaling down operations in China, where sales are about 3% of the mobile division total. Sales are strong relatively in Europe, South east Asia, and Japan, which provide 34%, 27%, 23% respectively of total mobile division sales.

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All cash purchases of homes by wealthy seniors and by foreign owners in 2013-2014. The thinning out of homes as distressed properties available from foreclosures in 2014. Institutional investors are also buying homes. Black Rock bought 45,000 homes for $8.6 billion in 2012 and 2013, and is retrenching a bit as it reduces purchases to about $30-$40 million a week in 2014. Other buyers from the middle class are still struggling to build up enough savings to buy homes, a reason for the weakness in the housing market.

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German chancellor Merkel wins the CDU election for party leader at the party convention in Hannover. The convention was held in Lower Saxony to give a boost to the election prospects of the CDU governor of the state, David McAllister. The CDU has 39% support in the polls and the 40% mark will be needed to form another coalition with the FDP, because of the sharp decline in the FDP's popularity. Merkel's personal popularity is high, with 58% favoring Merkel over 38% for the SPD candidate for chancellor, Peer Steinbruck.

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How Madoff's illicit dealings came up before the SEC in a whistle blower case but the SEC failed to investigate the leads sufficiently over the years leading to the giant Ponzi scheme that is expected to cost investors some $50 billion mostly wealthy investors known to Maddoff. Madoff was once the chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Exchange and he was even appointed to a25 member advisory committee on market structure. Most of the money seems to have gone into a high flying lifestyle with yachts and resort homes.

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Unitech, DLF, and other builders in India, are switching to affordable housing to meet demand at lower prices of $27000 to $100,000 for a one or two bedroom apartment. This shift means lower margins in the 30 percent range compared to earlier 70 percent margins of DLF. It can make up for profits in volume as there is a growing demand for affordable housing, and prices of raw materials and interest rates are coming down. Buyers are looking for even better prices and some are holding back because of uncertainty about the economy and jobs.

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2007 saw arecord number of births, of 4,317,000 . The average woman has 2.1 births and there are alarger number of childbearing women of all ages. In a sign of what society is looking like and changing mores in different racial groups, there were a record number of births to unmarried women. 40% of all births were by unmarried women in 2007. 28% of white babies were born to unmarried women, 51% of Hispanic babies, and 72% of black babies, and the rate is accelerating for white babies and Hispanic babies.

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With the reduced demand for Fannie and Freddie mortgages with coupons under 5%, the Fed steps in and purchases $192 billion of 4% and 4.5% conforming mortgages on a gross basis by March 25, 2009. The move helps support falling house prices in the U.S. and reduces mortgage rates. It also helps banks improve profits. Estimates show the top 10 banks increased their holdings of securities issued by Fannie and Freddie and government agencies by $128.6 billion or 30% in 4th quarter 2008, which can be marked up in future quarters.

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Note that ACA shares had lost 95% of their value and were down to 50 cents by the time Standard and Poors cut its credit rating of ACA to CCC in December. Now it appears that prior to the downgrade S&P had only looked at subprime securities created in 2006 and not subprime investments from 2005 and 2007 which ACA had insured. Why did it take so long for S&P's models to refect the true situation and why did the 2005 and 2007 information take till December to evaluate for a downgrade?

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UAL's stock has gone down 93% in the past year more than its other U.S. rivals and the entire company has an equity value of $433 million smaller than the retail price of two jumbo jets. It will take second quarter noncash charges of $2.7 billion to writedown to zero the value of its intangible assets or goodwill. United will pare its 460 plane fleet by 100 planes by 2009, cut capacity by 15% in the 4th quarter 2008, cut 20% of salaried jobs or 1500 jobs, and furlough 950 of its 6000 pilots.

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As the UK's biggest banks are hit hard in the markets, RBS shares down 39%, HBOS down 42%, and Lloyd's down 13%, Barclays down 9%, on Tuesday October 7, 2008, Brown takes a bold step to recapitalize British banks. In recent years as the boom years progressed British banks handled global capital equal or greater than Britain's entire economic output for a year, and making London the global financial hub rivalling New York. Brown offered to buy stakes in British banks for as much as 50 billion pounds or $88 billion.

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US tariff on India of 25% penalty for buying Russian oil and 25% baseline going into effect 21 days later in DJT executive order of August 6, 2025. A 30% baseline on China but no penalty for buying Russian oil. The 21 days will give time for India to come up with an agreement with the US. 

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US South Korea Trade Agreement with 15% tariff similar to Japan,  $350 billion  US "owned controlled" investments and $100 billion in energy purchases, all part of the agreement. After Japan the EU and South Korea have quickly followed in making agreements with the US on trade for a level playing field. 

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Opinion polls taken of pakistanis show rise in support for media and courts to 80% and 77%. and drop of support for army to 70%. US government viewed unfavorably by 66% of Pakistanis. Abou 56% of Pakistanis say their personal situation has worsened in 2007, so the economic progress of the past few years haasn't really reached a lot of people.

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In the next 15 years approximately India will have a higher percentage of working age population to non-working age population than China, based on information from the UN and Morgan Stanley. The number of people over 64 and under 15 has declined from 69% to 56% in 2010, according to UN figures. By 2020 the working age population will increase by 136 million in India, compared to 23 million in China. From this it can be seen that a huge demographic change is playing out. As China's economy matures and with the one-child policy in place, China's working age population is expected to decline; just as India's working age population picks up. This should give India momentum in the next 15-20 years, and lead to an increasing growth rate in India, just as China's growth rate slows. India's weak areas are infrastructure, and education. Infrastructure development will accelerate nevertheless, with larger private investments and participation in projects; and India will move up the experience curve as more projects are completed. Education for the poorer classes and in public schools will remain a problem. Private schools are making up for the weakness in this area, and private schools now make up 20% of attendance even in the rural areas according to one estimate. The strong points are democratic structures and the rule of law, private enterprise and private companies, English speaking middle class, and smart initiatives by business to develop low cost products that are affordable for all segments of sciety in India. For instance a $35 laptop developed by the IIT and Indian Institute of Science researchers, and Tata Chemicals development of a filter for 30 rupees or 65 cents that would filter water for a month for a family of five. This will bring the benefits of development to all segments of society as development progresses, and is crucial for balanced development in the poorer parts of Asia. Tata Motors 1 lakh ruppees car concept and the Tata Nano as its tangible product, is another verson of this kind of development being pioneered in India. Being a democratic country makes some processes slower, yet at the same time the private initiative enabled by democratic processes -cultivated over a long period from British times -enables a creative sort of development that could be turned into a distinct advantage....

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Car sales in Germany are up 40% from ayear ago. This is not about to happen in the USA. The cash for clunkers program in Germany is broad and less complicated.In Germany eligible cars have to 9 years old and the subsidy covered the purchase of any new car, regardless of size and fuel efficiency. In the US the program just signed by President Obama covers a narrow profile of customers. In the US customers who benefitare economically challenged and in the midst of adeep recession. Cars can't be over 25 years old, and can't have a combined highway and city fuel economy rating of more than 18 miles per gallon as calculated by EPA. To get the full $4500 credit customers must buy either a new truck or sport utility rated 5mpg higher than the clunker or scrapped vehicle, or a passenger car rated at least 10 mpg higher.And the credit is given instead of the trade in value, so if the trade in value is higher it doesn't help. The German government is giving away upto $4500 but it started out with 1.5 billion euros to get 600,000 clunkers off the road, but because of the popularity of the program has expanded it to 5 billion euros for 2 million cars and extended it to end of 2009. The US program only has $1 billion for 250,000 cars or one eight of what the Germans are doing for amuch larger car market. Because of the dire shape Detroit and much of the midwest is in, because of the slump in the auto industry, this may be a mistake and a missed opportunity to do what the Europeans are doing, and get an even bigger impact. The American car market and industry is taking a severe blow from the deep recession. Because of the depressed region the impact of a real clunkers for cash program that targets a broader profile, with bigger financing and designed to give a boost to the market, could make a real difference. At this point it is more of a program designed to help people turn in their gas guzzling trucks for passenger cars, and those driving a $200 car are not likely to be the kind of customer who goes out and buys a new car say dealers. See the link to Alan Blinder's stimulus proposal in July 29, 2008, that suggested a $20 billion program even before the current crisis. The present program has only $1 billion....

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Champions League quarter finals are April 9-10, and April 15-16. Manchester City meets Real Madrid, and Paris Germain meet Barcelona, Arsenal meet Bayern, Atletico Madrid meet Dortmund.