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Financial Planner Carl Richards, warns investors about relying too much on market predictions. He cites the law of small samples as one way things go wrong. Another is investment managers with good track records in one decade doing badly in the next decade- David Miller in the 70's and Bill Miller of the Legg Mason Value Fund are others. To show how ridiculous market predictions based on computer models can get he gives the example of a researcher who found that over a 13 year period butter production in Bangladesh 'explained' 75% of the fluctuations in the annual returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Adding in U.S. cheese production and the total population of sheep in Bangladesh and the U.S., this researcher was able to forecast past U.S. stock returns with 99% accuracy.

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The U.S. Library of Congress's exhibition, "The Books That Shaped America," in Washington D.C. from June 25 to September 29, 2012. The books include the McGuffey Readers, schoolbooksthat educated people like Henry Ford at the turn of the century, to Walt Whitman, Thoreau, Edgar Rice Burroughs, Ray Bradbury and Dr. Seuss. Even Dale Carnegie. It includes social issue books by Upton Sinclair, Ida Tarbell, W.E.B. Du Bois, Cesar Chavez. Literary works include Emily Dickinson, Thornton Wilder and Tennessee WIlliams. Carl Sagan's book on astronomy doesn't appear on this list. It is a pretty impressive list and a valiant effort to cover the American experience through books that most Americans are familiar with from school or other reading, and books that have conveyed a sense of America in all its struggles and humanity to people in other countries and especially the English speaking world.

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This WSJ editorial says AFL-CIO union leader Trumka's questions about the Lew nomination at Treasury are appropriate even though they come 2 years later. The questions relate to clauses in bank contracts that allow accelerated vesting of equity awards for executives who may be likely to join the government- looking towards favorable treatment of the banks by these executives that join the government. In this case it is Citicorp where Treasury Secretary Lew worked before becoming Treasury Secretary. The original Lew employment contract with Citicorp had a bonus guarantee if Lew left the bank for a "high level position with the United States government or regulatory body." The revolving door has a pernicious effect on America's regulatory system especially for financial markets and bank regulation by permitting behavious that would otherwise be discouraged or penalized.

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One of the key provisions of the new credit card bill, is that no credit cards can be issued to anyone under 21, unless a parent or legal guardian or spouse is the primary cardholder. THis way credit card companies cannot issue card to students under the age of 21 who might thn get into debt, unless aparent is aco-signer and becomes the primary cardholder, or the student shows own income and gets a waiver. And any increase in the credit line can only be made with the writtten permission of the parent. This and other changes in the bill were long overdue in the USA.

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A number of issues came up at the Women20 Summit in Berlin. Annette Niederfranke, Director of the International Labor Organization, brought up the issue of family reconciliation as "one of the toughest challenges for working women worldwide," that in order to meet obligations women tended to work in "non standard forms of employment and in part time work linked to lower wages, lower social security, lower benefits, and fewer training possibilities." Childcare was also an issue that was prominent considering the lack of adequate childcare in many countries including in the European Union. With responsibilities for the elderly, babies, and small children women tend to be in the workforce for shorter periods leading to men taking up many of the higher positions. Angela Merkel pointed out that Gemany tended to take a narrow view of professions available to girls, saying- "So it is very very important that we take a broader view of things while girls are still at school." Merkel also supports a Africa compact that would help women set up small and middle size businesses in poor countries. The "Digital" aspects of this and other efforts for women were a major topic being discussed. One idea that came up was that more cooperation from men was needed to make things happen. This is the third Women20 Summit after ones in Turkey and China, and a sense of momentum was felt by women. ...

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Any hopes that the U.S. would compromise on its position on trade issues were dampened after the G-7 Summit meetings in Canada. Europe and Canada are frustrated at their inability to move Mr. Trump on trade issues. Mr. Trump made jabs on trade, terrorism and immigration during 2 days of meetings. There is also uncertainty about the NAFTA though trade negotiations on NAFTA continue in Quebec. Trump says the negotiations were friendly and moving along until Mr. Trudeau made his own remarks about not being pushed around by its larger neighbor. On some issues there is not even an agreement on facts as president Trump says the U.S. has a trade deficit of $100 billion with Canada, Trudeau says the U.S. has a surplus. Trump says the high cost dairy industry is protected by Canada.

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BBC's Mark Tullly reflects on the period of coverage from 1962-1994 of South Asia. He says of Indira Gandhi that she took the democratic process out of the Indian National Congress party, and set up her sons as future leaders that was undemocratic. Here he reflects on that period in an intervew with the BBC after he left the BBC.  He has deep connections to the Indian period after 1800 as his great grand father on his mothers side was around 1840 in a part of Uttar Pradesh where British planters had farmers plant opium that would later be bought by planters for export. This coincides with the period when Britain in Hong Kong traded in opium as part of British trading in the emerging colonial culture British Empire. There is mixed legacy for Britain in India and China. The history of the Opium Wars in the 1850's and opening up of colonial ports ended with the 1900's revolution and the emergence of the CCP in China by 1950. In India the legacy was mixed bringing together this part of Asia into a new nation and bringing parliamentary traditions of Britain that provided the basis for good governance.  Tully is a softspoken thoughtful Englishman who revolted against British classical education in his youth and studied history and religion at Cambridge, made friends with the future bishops of Canterbury and Lincoln at Cambridge. He is not the Englishman of the Empire as his fondest memories are of the servants verandahs on the bungalows of Britishers and the smoke from their quarters, and the language. So it is a thoughtful view that he gives of the undemocratic nature of Indira Gandhi and mismanagement of the economy that could have changed if India had gone in a different direction under other leaders in the the 1990's. Why is this significant? China's modernization drive started in the 1990's. India's by the undemocratic nature and mismanagement under Indira Gandhi did not start its modernization till 2010, about 20 years after China, opening up a huge gap that is only now being corrected leading to problems for world security, US security, European security and Indian security. And delaying the aspirations of development of 1.4 billion people for 2 decades. Vikshit Bharat cannot come fast enough for both Merz in Germany and Leyen at the European Union, who last week and this week visit Ahmedabad and India for the Kite festival and for Republic Day 2026. ...

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The government of president Hollande in France added about 7 billion euros of new taxes after May 2012, and an additional 20 billion euros in the 2013 budget. Spending cuts totaled about half the tax increases. France's taxes are the highest of the major EU countries and there is concern that this may hinder the economic recovery. French businesses are cutting back on capital spending. Insee survey for April 2013 showed French manufacturing businesses planning cuts in investment of 4% for 2013. The government says spending cuts go up in 2014 to about two thirds of the deficit reduction and tax increases about 6 billion euros. France's statistics agency Insee says economic growth was 0.5% in the second quarter of 2013 compared to the prior quarter. The recovery was supported by consumer spending, with private capital investment lagging behind. This is about 1.9% growth in GDP on an annualized basis, according to J.P. Morgan.

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Sweden alone has $23.2 billion of loan exposurte for Latvia. Loan exposure for European banks is $42.2 billion for Lithuania, $39.5 billion for Latvia, $35.2 billion for Estonia, and $38.7 billion for Bulgaria. The currencies of the three Baltic republics are pegged to the euro and there value has remained unchanged even as the currencies of Russia, Hungary, Ukraine and the UK have seen substantial devaluations during this crisis. Experts say a devaluation should be undertaken to reduce the pain of wage and benefit cuts for public serive employees. Individuals, homeowners and companies hold over $40 billion of loans that they owe foreign banks, making paymetn more difficult and leading to more loan defaults. Latvia has seen overnight interest rates rise to about 20% and expects GDP to fall 18% this year. Swedish banks say they are prepared for a devaluation and high laon default rates, and the Swedish government has committed to help the Baltic countries in this crisis. See link.

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The concerns over far right parties expelling immigrants in states such as Thuringia has caused a wave of protests across Germany including Berlin and other cities in January 2024. It is also impacting the East where anti immigrant sentiment is based. Germany has a shortage of workers in parts of Germany that formed the Federal Republic before reunification- immigrants fill these gaps. The East has not been the success story it was supposed to be because reunification of the Federal Republic and the GDR (Communist East Germany around Leipzig and East Berlin) led to a flight of young people to the western parts for jobs and opportunities. Leading to a mostly older and retired population in the east -leaving it struggling and feeling unwanted. This is the background of the anti immigrant sentiment in the east where there are far fewer immigrants than in the western and central regions. Resentment about being ignored as settled around the immigrant issue in the east even as Germany has benefitted through some of the middle class educated immigrants from Turkey and from Ukraine, and Syria. Similar resentment has taken place in parts of England in the north which led to fear of immigrants being used by Tories party leading to Brexit. In a similar way in France in the north, and in the US with neglect of rural areas and factory communities in the east and midwest. The communities that were left out that have made choices with far right as in Britain have ended up with leaders from immigrant families that have accomplished little or much in the reverse direction for the English people in the north. The leaders of Germany, Britain, the US, the Nordic countries such as Denmark, and gradually in France have learned that it is right to go back to their roots, that they had forgotten where they came from and are now fighting for the dignity of workers (Schulz), standing in picket lines for the autoworkers (Biden), and following the Biden example in the UK (Starmer). With it comes the realization that this started with the Thatcher and Reagan era that created the conditions and culture that were repeatedly embraced by Democrats in the US, Labor in Britain and Social Democrats in Germany alike leading to financial crises and levels of inequality and lack of educational opportunity not seen since the Great Depression. With it by 2024 comes the unwinding of the economics and culture of the Reagan era. Even in China and India the shift is away from that culture as the economies of these countries with half of humanity are shifted to serve a broad base and to include rural, agricultural and other parts of the population. It shows that the educated parts of the population in these countries have the ability to create the conditions that in Lincoln's words are for the people, by the people, of the people, for a brighter future, if only they will try hard enough for their children's and grand children's sake.  ...

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Saudi Arabia's strategic moves at the OPE pricing meeting in Nov. 2014. Saudis push for keeping the production levels as they are, not making any cuts. Analysts say the Saudis are aware other OPEC countries and other producers outside OPEC such as Russia, are not likely to make cuts in production as they face severe budget constraints- especially Venezuela, Iran, Russia. In this situation they have decided to take a wait and see approach to see where prices are headed in coming months. A price of $60 for Brent crude is likely to lead to cuts, according to some analysts.

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About one in 5 German workers are in minijobs- about 7.4 million people in May 2013, according to estimates from the WSJ and Germany's Federal Employment Agency. Minijobs are a form of part time work that gets a German worker 450 euros a month free from taxes. Many of these jobs are in retail, healthcare and offer these industries more flexibility. Jobs are done by women, elderly, immigrants without work. The intent was to move these workers into full time work, but this is not happening as most workers in minijobs end up in a deadend status.

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The 1976 Montreal Olympics initial estimate was $120 million Canadian dollars. It ended up costing $1.6 billion Cdn Dollars after huge cost overruns, long strikes and finishing the work at the last minute using overtime. The roof of the stadium has suffered from poor construction and had expensive repair costs since then. The corruption scandals from the cost overruns and mismanagement of funds, led to investigations. A new Parti Quebecois government was elected in November 1976 following the games on a clean government platform. Mayor Drapeau who had claimed there would be no deficit in the games turned out to be completely wrong. The federal government of Canada distanced itself from the games taking no financial responsibility. In the end it took 3 decades to pay off the debt. And the legacy of the games is that while the city of Toronto, Ontario, could invest in new infrastructure for the city, Montreal found itself financially stretched for decades. The corruption also increased support for the separatist Parti Quebecois, with referendums in 1980 and 1995 to create an independent French speaking country of Quebec. For the referendum in 1995 the separatist PQ party came less than 1% short of winning.  ...

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U.S. Fed chairwoman Yellen moves cautiously to raise rates in December 2015. The Fed raises the benchmark federal funds rate-its overnight lending rate- from near zero to between 0.25% and 0.5%. Yellen emphasized her cautious approach by saying "we have very low rates and we have made a very small move." This follows seven years of near zero rates after the QE program for monetary easing under Ben Bernanke, the previous chairman, following the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed plans to raise rates gradually and slowly over 3 years. With oil prices falling below $35 the prospect that inflation may fall well below the 2% target could put off further plans to raise rates. Yellen said the Fed would "monitor inflation very carefully," and if it remained at unexpectedly low levels the Fed would reconsider its outlook and respond with "appropriate policy."

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Bread and bakeries have a special place in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and most of Europe. DW.com looks at one bakery in the city of Bonn, Kugel's Bakery with 13 employees and the concept slogan "Where there's only bread" (Da wo's nur Brot gibt) written on each and every white packaging bag. There are 10,000 bakeries in Germany many of them small family run bakeries that specialize in bread. Click on original article to see this report. Max Kugel takes over his parent's bakery, but first visits Vancouver, San Francisco and London, to learn new concepts and invests in new special equipment with a $200,000 loan. The new equipment lets him switch from one type of bread to another easily and keeps his costs down. He does not depend on Ukraine grain imports as he uses local organic grain grown in Germany. With 10,000 bakeries total sales in Germany are $15 billion for bread, and Germans take in 123 pounds of bread and baked goods in a year per person. ...

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This editorial in The Economist magazine points out that the doggedness of prime minister Theresa May now looks like pig-headedness. The crisis is of poor leadership. It also exposes two deeper problems in the Leave campaigns distorted message that it is possible for Britain to leave the EU, "to take back control" without making it harder to for British business and the economy to trade with its partners in Europe. It also exposes concerns of democracy that see the referendum as the only message from the people- the general election of 2017 brought Conservatives to power without a majority in parliament changing the picture about the referendum's message. Particularly since the referendum Leave campaign presented a distorted  message leaving out what the cost would be for Britain.  Ejection from the single market, decline of industy from finance to carmaking, destablisation of Northen Ireland peace agreement, exit bill of 50 bill euros was not advertised in the Leave campaign. Buses with posters of immigrants streaming across borders in Europe presented an emotional message recklessly sold to voters. Representing the will of the people can be claimed now by all sides, says the Economist. Leaving Europe on March 29 deadline with no deal would be bad for Europe and economic upheaval for Britain. Discerning the will of the people should not be the work of squabbling MP's or backbenchers in parliament. The only practical and sensible way out of this mother of all messes is to go back to the people and get a new opinion with broad daylight thrown on the realities facing Britain.   ...

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The UN badge and logo for sustainable development goals is becoming highly popular in Japan. It has 17 colors for the 17 Sustainable Development goals set by the UN- ending poverty, reducing inequality, improving education, other aspirations of the people of the world. It is something India, the US, Canada, Britain ,Germany, France and other nations should adopt in the way Japan has done. India has taken up specific goals, clean India, clean water, electrification, and made it available to all 1.2 billion people, in its own version of SDG. Introduced into Japan by 2016, this badge is now so popular that there it is everywhere says this report in NYT. In children's playgrounds, in comic books, on NHK broadcaster's video with about 1 million views, on Buddhist temple websites, and used by businesses. In 2016 it was made official national policy by Mr Abe's government and a task force established on them by the government. In 2017 it was adopted to its charter by Keidanren, the business federation.  In the US very few know about S.D.G.'s but in community oriented Japan it has been taken up with zeal. It is part of the conversation and one survey shows 40% of Japanese business were working towards the goals in 2021. It has been adopted by Education Canada Network and it is a good way to bring this idea in education to schools and colleges in North America, Britain, EU, India and China, as well as Africa and Latin America, other parts of Asia. In India some of the SDG's are already the focus of campaigns by the Modi government Goal 0  Clean Nation one that has not been coined yet one that is called Clean India or Swacch Bharat Goal 1 Zero Hunger was taken up during the vaccination for covid campaign to get free foodgrains and vegetables to all 1.2 billion people. Goal 2  Clean Water and Sanitation or Har Ghar Jal getting clean tap water to all rural homes by 2024. Goal 3 Infrastructure, Industry, Exports Goal 4 Renewable Energy The sequence is different from the UN SDG's. The difference is it is a goal set for universal meaning everyone and delivery meaning by a specific date, and the priorities are set in the numbering. The Indian SDG campaigns under the Modi government and at federal and state levels are unprecedented in history for a population of this size, and now present a model for all nations in Asia, Africa, Latin America on how to go about doing the SDG's in practice. ...

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The US vaccination drive appears to be stalling when it comes to getting younger people vaccinated. On a recent day 1.13 million persons were vaccinated. About 150 million Americans are fully vaccinated or about 47% of the population. About 53% of the population have one dose. This still leaves the rest of the population close to one half unvaccinated as the US is opening up fully and removing the social distancing and mask mandates that existed before. The problem is that the coronavirus delta variant is about twice as transmissible than the original coronavirus of March 2020. Vaccination is uneven across the US. Large parts of the southern states and the western states lag behind. In these areas as well as areas with large urban concentrations of population, the densely populated cities where social distancing and mask mandates are being lifted as if the coronavirus crisis is over, are at risk of seeing a more powerful virus spread quickly before gene sequencing catches up with new variants- making the response lag behind in terms of weeks. That lag in response could lead to another wave in the US. Consider also that tourism is opening up in Europe with removal of mask mandates, that gene sequencing to track variants is tiny in even countries such as Italy and France. A WSJ report on June 22 shows gene sequencing to track variants at 1% of positive tests in Italy, and virologists in Italy saying they feel as if they are flying blind. This report in the Washington Post says surveys show as many as one third of Americans have no immediate plans to get vaccinated. This is showing up in the low numbers for the vaccination drive, of around 1 million a day at this time in June 2021. In April this was 3 million vaccine doses adminstered on a single day on average. India where the new delta variant has had the most serious impact has stepped up its response with the federal government taking complete responsibility for vaccine supplies and vaccination drives. It is now vaccinating aggressively in the range of 6 million to 8 million doses a day during the last 7 days with a plan to ensure enough vaccine supplies for 1.2 billion people to get vaccinated by December 31.  The European Union and the US have  vaccinated just over 50% of their population for a variant that is more than twice as transmissible than the original virus. This leaves the unvaccinated at real risk because all the social distancing and mask mandates that existed earlier are being removed- in the US, in France, in Italy, and other countries. Soccer stadiums are filling up in Europe, the kind of sports events that later hit Bergamo, Italy, in March 2020. Summer tourism is back in Portugal and Greece. The best intentions will not be enough. Are mask and social distancing protocols being lifted too quickly especially in tourist locations reminiscent of last summer in Europe and elsewhere. Germany and Britain are holding on to them a bit longer. Will this be enough to tackle a new variant. ...

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Pearlstein raises the question, are there business leaders who believe that what's good for America, is good for business, rather than the other way around. Google, like other technology companies, pays much less in taxes than the corporate tax rate suggests. Research by the Washington Post shows this to be 18%, not 35%, for 2009.

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The Nobel going to French economist Tirole in 2014 for work in economics is special because of the way he tackled issues that are very current including- regulation and regulatory capture, asset bubbles, bank bailouts, tackling monopolies. The effort to come up with solutions to these problems were designed to benefit both society and business.

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The increase of H1-B visas to 180,000 in legislation was not taken up in the House. The executive order addresses low skilled immigrants, but does not take up the issue of increasing H1-B visas. Technical hurdles are reduced and overall the impact on outsourcing firms in India appears to be minor, say experts.

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Andriotis describes the pressure from real estate agents, the need for loan officers and appraisers for continuing business, that is leading to problems that happened before the 2008-2009 U.S. mortgage crisis. Appraisers are valuing homes at about 20% above the real value, by using newer homes as comparable properties for older homes, say experts.

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Portugal raised 3 billion euros in a 10 year bond sale at 5.67% in May 2013. Portugal had orders of 10.2 billion euros from investors. This is a significant step forward for Portugal to return to bond markets. Portugal's ratings are Ba3 from Moody's, BB from Standard & Poors Investors Services and BB+ from Fitch Ratings.