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Republican Jeb Bush's address to the 2013 CPAC conference focusses on the decline of social and educational mobility in the U.S. to its lowest point since 1945. In this address he points out that " the central mission of conservatives is to reignite social mobility in this country- restoring the right to rise." His focus on restoring the right to rise is on doing everything to increase opportunities for "quality education," an issue on which he focussed as governor of Florida. He sees technolgy and relative youthful population compared to China and other countries in Europe, as giving America a unique advantage. On this and individual efforts he pins the broad hopes of the middle class revival he sees. He puts the problems of America's middle class and working class as wages declined and the economy suffered from misallocation of resources in stark terms- "Today, the sad reality is that if you're born poor, if your parents did'nt go to college, if you don't know your father, if English isn't spoken at home- then the odds are stacked against you. You are more likely to stay poor today than at any other time since World War II." And he sees Conservatives having a response to this situation, and restoring the idea of America as a land of opportunity for all....

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The US and Japan are coordinating efforts to limit transfer of sensitive technology to China and increase trade and cooperation within the G-7 in high technology sectors. Efforts are being coordinated with South Korea. Janet Yellen says the IMF has overblown the effects on the world economy from the US decoupling from China. IMF reports have also in addition presented India incorrectly as a non aligned country, when it is a close partner of the US. In 2023 US is the largest trade partner of India.The US position is to limit flows of technology in sectors considered vital, and continue world trade in other areas with China. US is committed to friendshoring to India, Vietnam and other countries. Germany's three parties CDU, Greens and SPD are reversing close trade and technology links with China. This is also the policy of the Modi administration which seeks close trade and technology ties to US and EU. The shift is in response to what is really an overconcentration of the supply chain in China that happened as business in the US and EU and the Merkel and the Bush-Obama-Trump administrations failed to see the risks of overconcentration. And carried out misguided policies in trade and investment that are now being reversed by US president Biden, Kishida in Japan, and Modi in India. ...

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Opec cuts by 2.2 million barrels a day on December 17, 2008, and forward curve for Nymex crude oil prices which goes up $10 to $50.64 for the May 2009 contract and $70 from late 2012, offers liitle support in terms of higher oil prices. Some of it is explained by costs of storing oil on tankers and some of it by higher credit costs, and prices beyond 6 months do not have as much significance as the situation is uncertain. With Russia needing oil revenues and Iran and Venezuela also in the same situation, it looks increasingly unlikely that the strict reduction in production will hold. And things like higher inventories with a steeper downturn in 2009, can keep prices down for a long time.

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Age discrimination is a problem in France more than in Germany or other countries in Europe. A person over 55 is half as likely as younger people to be hired by companies. This makes raising the pension age from 62 to 64 much harder for the government. In the US people are working for much longer.

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In a visit to Washington DC Mr. Trump talks about an all tariff revenue system that would replace the income tax. He says he would take the corporate tax down from 21% to 20%. He meets with the CEO's in the Business Round Table including Dimon of JP Morgan Chase and of Bank of America.

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Zeit Online takes a look at German chancellor Angela Merkel's statement made in a beer tent in the Muich suburb of Trudering- "The times in which we can completely rely on others are somewhat over, as I have experienced in the past few days." Zeit Online says the words "ein Stuck" in German were meant to say a bit or somewhat, but the essence of the statement that the depending on the trans-Atlantic alliance was now over comes right through.

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France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Britain agreed to have automatic exchange of information for offshore accounts to fight tax evasion. Luxembourg agreed to join this group. The EU nation move follows the U.S. Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act of 2010 which requires foreign banks and entities to disclose accounts of U.S. citizens, in an effort to fight tax evasion.

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"The whites are here to stay," a line in a paper prepared by Kissinger set the policies of the Nixon administration supporting Apartheid in Africa. NYT in this report on Kissinger points to his involvement of the US in the Angolan civil war on the side of South Africa as he did not understand the popularity of liberation movements. Kissinger was steeped in the Austrian and German politics of his original home country Germany from the Napoleonic period to 1914 covering Metternich in Austria-Hungary and Bismarck in Germany. He also failed to grasp the popularity of liberation movements in Indochina. As a result of these policies many many hundreds of thousands of lives were lost, which cannot be said of Secretaries of State before him. Jefferson, Madison and Adams, and Seward for Abraham Lincoln, Elihu Root for Teddy Roosevelt, Cordell Hull for FDR, George Marshall and Dean Acheson for Harry Truman, John Foster Dulles for Eisenhower, George Shultz for Reagan. Kissinger served only for 3 years and the lives lost are incredibly large. We think of Geroge Marshall and the Marshall Plan that rebuilt post war Europe, Seward's role with Lincoln in the Civil War, and Cordell Hull's fight for freedom of Asian countries including India under Gandhi.  And we can see why there are such strong opinions for Kissinger almost seeing Kissinger as a Napoleonic figure where power faced the hundreds of thousands of lives lost with complete indifference. There is the opening to China yet this happened simply because as a coincidence of events in China in 1970 after the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution led to Lin Piao incident and China seeking a connection to the US more than Kissinger's own policy or plans. David Sanger's account of his conversation with Kissinger simply says he just "shut up and took notes."  ...

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Israeli prime minister Netanyahu retracts his statement about rejecting a two state solution in an interview with Andrea Mitchell of NBC News. He says he meant that it was not possible under the current conditions with terrorism in the Middle East, Iran pursuing a nuclear weapon, and the Palestinian Authority having an alliance with the militant Hamas movement. In 2009 Netanyahu said he supported a two state solution in a speech at Bar-Ilan University, and the statement before the election was meant to bring out larger number of right wing votes. He also clarified his comments about Israeli Arabs "voting in droves," as meant to bring out large numbers of his own voters to vote, saying Israeli Arabs voting was "sacrosanct." The White House response was to say that it was free to support a two state solution at the United Nations, and U.S. president Obama discussed the comments on Israeli Arabs- seen widely as racist baiting- with Netanyahu in a phone conversation. The rift between the two leaders is now seen as irreparable and bigger than ever....

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Kulfi Indian easy to make ice cream treat, no ice cream maker required. Use a loaf pan and pour in the thick milk ingredients and freeze, then cut into small slabs.

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The U.S. faces a migration crisis of migrants from Guatemala moving through Mexico to the U.S. The Trump administration works to get Mexico to police its national borders with Guatemala using trade tariffs  as a tool of diplomacy. This story shows how failing coffee prices have increased levels of migration from Guatemala. 

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The 2018 U.S. Budget deal that passed the U.S. Senate on February 8 meets nearly all of the priorities set by Democrats in Congress for increases in spending, says Representative John Yarmuth of Kentucky, the senior Democrat in the House Budget Committee. Part of the deal are increases in funding for domestic programs favored by Democrats. As a result Democrats are having difficulty taking a stand on the budget and forcing a shutdown of government on the basis of a single issue, that of children who were brought unlawfully into the country by their parents but offered protection under president Obama's Dreamers legislation called DACA.  Reflecting this ambivalent position Representative Pelosi of San Francisco, made a spirited defense of the Dreamer legislation with a 8 hour nonstop speech, plans to vote against the budget deal, yet says the compromise was fair and helped achieve Democrats priorities on other issues that affect the whole country. Democrats from the most liberal section of the party plan to vote their conscience on the issue, and Pelosi called merely for a commitment from Speaker Ryan to have a vote on legislation that would address the issue of the Dreamers, children of unlawful immigrants. Speaker Ryan offered no commitment on Dreamers except to say any immigration legislation would have to be something president a Trump supports. In the previous vote that led to a government shutdown a settlement was reached between the two parties in a matter of days when Majority Leader McConnell of the Republicans committed to a debate on immigration. On the Republican side the Freedom Caucus members oppose lifting spending caps to address priorities in spending supported by Democrats and to some extent by president Trump, because it worsens the deficit. The budget deal lifts spending caps for this fiscal year for domestic and military spending by about $300 billion. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky emphasized this issue with his opposition to the budget deal and delayed the deal till the final vote in the Senate 71 in favor and 28 against.  ...

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Friedman scores the presidential debates and the candidates for president in the 2010 U.S. elections on how well they put forward a plan to put the U.S. back on the right track. The scoring system he suggests focusses on how well the plan addresses the deficit in education- he points to the 25% dropout rate in the U.S. and younger workers in the middle of the pack in educational skills when compared to other countries. The other points in the scoring system are the deficit, setting aspirational goals to restore U.S. leadership, promoting innovation and startup companies, and rebuilding infrastructure. Much of the stimulus he points out went to help unskilled workers, not enough is being done to improve the education and training of America's young workers to compete in a global economy.

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Germany's kurzabeit or short work system avoids layoffs in a crisis. The Bundestag parliament in Germany quickly reintroduced it following the coronavirus. It provides subsidy to employers so that wages of upto 2500 euros can be paid to employees. The German parliament changed the requirement that makes it law fro a 30% of workers of a company being impacted by a crisis to 10%. About 2.3 million workers will benefit at a cost of 10 billion euros says this report in The Financial Times. The Federal labor office has a fund of $26 billion to which workers and employers contributed just for this purpose of safety net.  Workers get about 60% of their wages under this scheme while the crisis lasts. The last time it was used during the financial crisis of 2008-2009 1.3 million workers benefited from this scheme to prevent layoffs.  Germany with its strong vocational training system invests in worker training. The logical next step was to preserve this knowledge component of workers and avoid its loss through layoffs due to some crisis that is temporary and beyond the control of the company. Britain is adopting this idea this time with the British Treasury supporting  80% of lost wages upto 2500 pounds a month in the new economic aid package announced by the British government. Spain has a scheme under ERTE for 70% of wages to be paid as safety net. France has set aside 8.5 billion euros aid for assistance to workers in a similar scheme as safety net. ...

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Kate Bingham, head of the Vaccine Task Force in Britain is commended for her intelligent approach in placing bets on vaccines in different technologies, "four buckets" as she calls them. This includes the Moderna and Pfizer in the mRNA technology and the viral vector Astra Zeneca, J&J vaccines. This approach made the British vaccination drive effective by being supported by a resilient supply system.

The Indian government has supported the effort to get several companies to make the Sputnik Russian vaccine in India in an effort to diversify supplies. Reddy Labs is one of the major manufacturers working on the Sputnik vaccine in 2021.

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The UAW added 7000 workers to the 18000 already on strike at Ford, GM, Stellantis.The UAW is making progress in its talks on Stellantis on cost of living adjustments and outsourcing, and says it will spare Stellantis from more walkouts. Stellantis also has the least hourly workers of the three US auto companies. Stellantis has operations in Europe and gets half of its profit outside the US. The UAW is also not stopping work at the largest SUV and pickup truck plants that make the most money for the auto companies. The idea is to do only what is needed to achieve its goals of fair pay and benefits for the auto workers.

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Cases in Germany rise exponentially in a third wave of coronavirus. The Times shows the old square in Prague with thousands of crosses painted on it to commemorate the first anniversary of the first death from coronavirus. A woman and a girl arrive with flowers to the Old Town Square in Prague. France Germany and other parts of the EU all face a surge in cases.

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A Yale Brown universities study in 2024 shows the huge dividends from investments in childcare in the early part of schooling years- $1 invested in free full time daycare for preschoolers generates $6 in economic benefits. It only includes the economic benefits from the lack of affordable childcare for parents that lead to cutting back on work hours and changing careers. This does not even include the results decades from today in 2050 when these children provide the Nation with a strong educated workforce to propel industry and the economy forward in new ways. Catherine Rampell in the Washington Post shows that these economic benefits are  just the beginning, as the effects ripple through to local economies, touching on kids, parents, employers, local tax revenue. This is not counting the effects on mental health of parents struggling with childcare and the overall mental wellbeing of the Nation knowing that it has got the priorities right for a better future.   ...

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Prices for WTI crude dropped below $50 in January 2015. Higher inventories weighed on oil prices and Saudi Arabia added to the pressure by cutting the price of crude sold in the U.S.

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Even after bankruptcy of Takata, this WSJ article points out that the job of replacing 54 million defective airbags in just the U.S. could go on and on for many years. Honda the carmaker most affected has set aside $4.9 billion over 2 years to cover recall costs. The airbags failed because of manufacturing defects.

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Vic Starmer spent the day after Thursday's election night at a race course in Surrey. Her mother introduced her to flat racing and she spent time at the Doncaster race course while growing up. She is a solicitor, ten years younger than Keir Starmer, and works in occupational health for the NHS. Vic met Keir Starmer when he called her about a brief she prepared as a solicitor. Starmer says their first interaction was when she was questioned about the brief and s she put down the phone was overheard saying "who the fuck does he think he is?"  Vic grew up in a middle class home in north London the daughter of a father whose family left Poland in the 1930's who worked as a accountant, and a mother who was a GP physician. She went to Cardiff University to study sociology and law, was elected student union president in 1994. They married when Keir was 45 years. Keir Starmer says about her-      " very sassy, very down to earth, no nonsense from anyone." She was political long before Keir, she understands politics, yet she wants to stay outside politics. On the walls in their Kentish Town kitchen the pictures reflect her space, nothing political, just the Doncaster race course, a familiar space for her.   ...