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Social Security payment are likely to increase by 3.3% in 2024 in line with about 3% inflation, after an increase of 8.7% in 2023. 46% of retirees paid taxes on a part of their benefits. About 40% of Americans depend on social security payments for half of their income, and 14% for 90% of their income. Average 401K balances are up to $223,000 for people 65 to 69 years, according to Fidelity Investments.

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The US launched its probe Maven to Mars last year. The European Space Agency just launched its mission Juice to Jupiter that will go on for 8 years. Juice will reach Jupiter, the largest planet in the solar system, in July 2031. The mission will search for possible life on Jupiter's moons.

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Economists from Mankiw, Eichengreen, Kashyap, Harrison Hong, Brad Long and others all agree that capital is front and centre, capital injection into the banks has to be the centrepiece of any action plan, and that a coordinated plan by all countries is necessary for it to work effectively. The remarkable consensus is registernig among policy planners and central bankers and finance ministers, as this is the direction that Paulson and the rest of the G8 are following, taking the cue from Gordon Brown's announced plan for the UK that made capital injection a key feature for recapitalizing the banks and getting credit flowing. Governments also need to guarantee the interbank markets as banks are shy of lendig to each other because of fear of what may be on the other party's balance sheet, something the US has still to do.

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German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says Germany will not be blackmailed. She rejected the idea that Russia is expanding its attacks on Ukraine in response to supply of longer range artillery from the US and Germany saying this was just "new propaganda from the Russian side."

Baerbock also said Germany needs to avoid a situation of being dependent on an aggressor for gas supply. Germany is now "very intensively" looking at its dependencies on China, said Baerbock. This is going to be  for "a sovereign European strategy of independence in critical infrastructure."

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Biden delivers a rousing speech at the State of the Union to the US Congress yesterday. He touches on every aspect on every issue that is important for ease of living, for improving the lives of workers and families, for ordinary Americans, in every state of the Union. NYT says he made his case vigorously and unrelenting throughout the address, leaving no point in doubt on every issue of the action needed and the path to be taken for the American people and for America's leadership in the world.

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Oxford University Wellbeing Research Center has developed Happiness score using Gallup surveys. US score No.10 ranking among 143 countries for older adults over 60 years. Yet it drops off steeply for young people to 62nd of 143 countries. The situation is the same in Canada and to a lesser extent in the European Union. Overall the US dropped out of the top 20 countries  falling from 15th to 23rd. The report is based on Gallup World poll surveys from 2021 to 2023. Young females recording even lower. Normally it starts with youth doing better and higher then in a U curve dropping all the way down during a midlife crisis in 30's and 40's age before rising again for older adults wi have experienced the vicissitudes of life. The US data contradicts this. Why? Jan De Neve of Oxford Wellbeing Center says it could be from social media use and growing health and income disparities. The pandemic also played a role- beginning college or a career in a pandemic was just not the way to start. Housing prices, cost of living, loneliness epidemic, misinformation and social media negative effects add to this. At the same time there is an increase in benevolence among younger people aware of the situation they face and looking for ways to mitigate this. ...

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Typical of so much of what is written about the World Health Organization and its role in the pandemic, this podcast in the WSJ fails to quickly convey the critical function of the WHO as an early warning system the world has depended on, including China. The H1N1 epidemic originated in Mexico. Asian countries including China and India depended on very quick response from the country where the epidemic originated  in allowing entry into the affected area for experts from advanced countries such as the U.S. The global response was then coordinated across countries quickly with complete transparency. The head of China's CDC himself faced a problem with transparency with the provincial authorites in Wuhan. 1.    Fundamentally this quick entry was denied the U.S. Request by U.S. to China was made on Jan. 6 for U.S. team to go to Wuhan, quick permission was denied and given only about 6 weeks later on Feb 16. This delay is the crux of the problem for the U.S.. Taiwan confirmed human to human transmission on Jan. 1, the WHO was saying this was not clear as late as Jan. 14. These costly delays are what the U.S.  letter is about.  The head of the CDC China Gao Fu called Dr. Redfield head of CDC in the U.S. on the next day after he suspected Wuhan provincial authorites were vague about what was happening. Gao Fu was alarmed when scanning the internet on December 30, 2019, about rumors of a vaguely worded lung disease in internal memos of Wuhan. He called Wuhan authorites and was not getting clear answers on that day, then deciding on December 31 to send his own team to Wuhan, as reported in German magazine Der Spiegel- Hackenbroch, Zand, 05/20/2020.  Der Spiegel says in its special report on the early period in Wuhan that Gao Fu was so alarmed about what was happening enough to be in tears in his series of calls with Dr. Redfield in the immediate days that followed. The date was shortly after the GAO Fu sent the team to Wuhan, December 31 and New Years Day 2020, as reported in Der Spiegel. See the link to Lyrarc gist of Der Spiegel's "A Failed Deception: The Early Days of the Coronavirus in Wuhan."  2.  President Trump points out the standards of the WHO- in the concluding point of his letter to WHO- when a three time prime minister of Norway, Gro Brundtland was head of the WHO during the SARS crisis of 2003. She acted quickly and decisively and no time was lost. It is this failure of the early warning system under the new president of the WHO after 2017 Dr. Tedros that alarms the U.S.  with about 100,000 deaths.  3.  This failure it can now be said was partly a result of a election in 2017 for the position of WHO president which was flawed. This was the first time a WHO head, an important position was put up for an election. The Executive Board was responsible for this appointment since the founding of the WHO as part of the UN, based in Geneva, Switzerland, after World War II. This system worked. The election was clearly a bad process for appointing the president of the WHO which should be done entirely on the capabilities of the person holding this position not on a flawed voting process. It is flawed because India and Bangladesh hit by a cyclone during the coronavirus have suffered greatly, as have other countries, but had only 2 votes for 1.5 billion people, when Barbados (385,000 population) and Laos (7 million) which had less than one  hundredth the population had the same number of votes. The U.S. had one vote. The election resulted in lobbying and a process in which many candidates stayed away because they simply would not go through such a process. The position was too important to the world- most of the advanced countries had forgotten about the danger of epidemics to let this happen by 2017, as shown in the way the austerity years led to cancellation of the preparations for pandemic in France and Britain. The austerity years and neglect of public health during these tech boom years in the western world made it possible for this to happen. 3.   Along with the 1 month ultimatum action is already being taken to restore the effectiveness of the importance of the Executive Board. The head of the health ministry in India, Dr. Harsh Vardhan, has been appointed the new chairman of the Executive Board on May 22. This restores the voice of billions of people in Asia in the process, and brings the major countries with the greatest risk in a pandemic into the decision process for tackling the pandemic, this includes the rest of the world.     ...

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Steve Jobs of Apple never intended the iPhone to be used as an ubiquitous device that is there all the time with user attention riveted to it. A computer scientist, Prof. Cal Newport of Georgetown University, says the vision of the iPhone presented by Steve Jobs at the Mosconi Center in 2007 was very different from what it has become today. It was an iPod that could make calls, help you listen to music, not a device on which you had to constantly check emails, constantly be on the alert for messages, use for getting instant breaking news you didn't need all the time. At the time in 2007 the App store did not exist and Jobs by design did not focus on apps believing that whatever apps there would be would be better designed to be aesthetically good by Apple engineers. It was an iPod that made calls, a engineer on the team that developed the iPhone at that time tells Newport. Jobs vision was of an iPhone that did a few activities well- helping people listen to music , get directions, make calls. What he did not want to do was to change the rhythm of people's lives. Newport calls it a shame that this vision got somehow diverted and disrupted by what happened afterwards. We have become so used to the constant companion model that we forget its novelty, only a little over 10 years ago none of this existed. As a computer scientist writing about the influence of technology on culture Newport says it is important to remember the magnitude of this unintended shift, to know that Jobs got it right the first time and that it would be better for many of us to return to the minimalist vision for the phone that Jobs espoused. ...

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Increased use of remote work is leading to vacant office space with occupancy of office towers falling. This has led to the coining of the term "urban doom loop" as more and more office space goes vacant and real estate companies default on mortgages or lose money. Less use of office space hits retail stores in the same area leading to losses in the state including a hit to tax revenues. This is expected to have an outsize effect on midsize cities such as Charlotte or Indianapolis. This is being watched closely so that it does not affect the Us economy and growth.

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Extreme drought affected Minnesota cattle farmers leading to elimination of many cattle herds.               Wildfire smoke from Canada settled down over the cities of St Paul and Minneapolis for days.                 Lack of enough snow and ice in winter led to losses in ice fishing and cross country skiing making winters unnatural in Great Lakes Region that also includes Wisconsin and Michigan. Walz acted, and his plain spoken communication style made a difference clearing misperceptions. Pew Research shows 67% of Americans favor clean energy but misperceptions abound.          Minnesota during his two terms now produces 50% of its energy from wind, solar and nuclear. Minnesota is now likely to be ahead of California in getting to 100% wind solar and nuclear for all its energy. Walz set the date 2040 into law for this to happen with 40 climate initiatives. A bill signed into law speeds up the permits for renewable energy projects. Walz’s communication style shows that when people understand the benefits and specifics you get things done. “The surest way to get people to buy in is to create a job that pays well in their community. All of us are going to have to be better about our smart politics, about bringing people in.”        ...

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This editorial in the Hindu- after encouraging news from Moody's and the World Bank on India's economic future- says that the Modi government should not be distracted by the upcoming elections as it focusses on the task ahead. After a gap of 14 years Moody's raises India's credit rating one notch. Moody's cites steps taken by the Modi government as creating a better environment for future growth- the implementation of GST goods and service tax, efforts to clear some of the bad loans in the banking system so that capital can be freed up for infrastructure investment, and reducing bureaucratic hurdles for clearance of projects. Moody's cites the high public debt burden as a constraint for growth. General government debt is at 68% of GDP in 2016, higher than the 44% median for economies in this range. On the plus side the better targeting of welfare measures to help the poor including steps in the banking field, bringing more businesses into the formal sector to improve tax revenues, and the large pool of private savings, are cited by Moody's. Critical is timely implementation in the future. As the discussion in the media on bullet trains and other new infrastructure shows, there is not enough momentum for stretch goals as China has done over the last 2 decades.   ...

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Maine's shift from heating oil to heat pumps. Maine is the state with the largest use of heating oil in winter, 50% of homes use heating oil. It was because utilities found it hard to set up transmission pipelines in a sparsely populated state that this happened. Now heat pumps which have no carbon emissions and take heat from outside and transfer it to the inside of homes are effective in the coldest weather and far, far better for Maine than heating oil. About 100,000 homes have heat pumps installed in recent years, and another 175,000 will have heat pumps installed by 2027.  State rebates cut the cost of $12000 for heat pumps to half that and there is another $2000 tax rebate. Users like the even distribution of heat and had problems with the cold parts of the house when using heating oil. Some rave about it. If all homes in America use heat pumps it would be like taking 32 million cars off the road, according to one estimate.

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US EU relations are on a better track with president Biden, yet tough talks on issues such as Russia and China, vaccines, climate change remain, and there is the uncertainty of new leadership in France and Germany with upcoming elections.

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Medvedev set up athink tank last year with Igor Yurgens as head , which was to come with new ideas for Rusian economy and foreign relations. He called for Russia to change course and work with the US and Europe t o work its way out of the crisis. T do this he told a seminar organized by the American Chamber of Commerce in Moscow, that Russia should create dialogue with the people, and experts should be brought into the discussions, and the government guys need to dialogue with both the people and these experts inside Russia and abroad. The suggestion is that policy should come out of vigorous discussion, and the government guys should consult, listen and they should win honestly in the discussions in this policy debate or change course as necessary. On Georgia and Ukrainian gas supplies cutoff, these wounds he says should be healed by making symbolic gestures to Europe and the USA, like the one that Vice President Biden made, in saying in Munich that the US needed to press the reset button in its relations with Russia. The Russian government says that the economy will contract by 2.2% in 2009....

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Airbus and Boeing are expected to announce a net increase in orders of 50% in 2010, net of cancellations. Higher airline traffic is one reason, the other reason is that airline leasing companies are coming back in a big way. Lessors account for more than 35% of all orders at Airbus this year, up from 5% last year. At Boeing lessors have placed 21% of the orders, up from 12%. For Airbus and Boeing combined, the 27% of all orders placed by lessors is the highest proportion since 2000, according to Ascend Worldwide. Airbus and Boeing see lessors as more reliable buyers than airlines which are locked into their routes. Leasing companies are benefitting from funding by private equity, investment funds and commercial banks, which have taken up more than $18 billion in equity and debt issued by airplane lessors, according to Gary Liebowitz, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities. Many lessors are yielding 10%, far above what can be gained in other sectors. Banks are skittish about lending to airlines, but see lessors as less risky. Airlines need planes, but banks have restricted lending to airlines. Stricter financial regulations and higher borrowing costs for banks have reduced lending to all but the strongest airlines, says Kostya Zolotusky, managing director of capital markets development for Boeing's finance division. Investors like lessors because they can move planes to where they are needed worldwide, which is what happened after the financial crisis of 2008. Lessors make money by getting discounts on large orders of planes and then renting them out at higher rates to airlines. Airlines lease the planes for a few months to a number of years, when they can't afford to buy planes or need flexibility. The shift is significant, as Boeing expects one in two planes to be owned by lessors, compared to one in three today. AIG's unit, the International Lease Finance Corporation, faced problems during the crisis. ILFC has raised $9.4 billion in new debt issues in 2010 that allowed it to refinance existing debt and repay loans to the US government. There are risks, say some executives, if speculative orders and competition among lessors get Airbus and Boeing to make too many planes. ...

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While attention is placed on Brazil for coronavirus, neighboring Argentina has an economic crisis with debt of $324 billion, reaching 90% of GDP. The new Peronist party government in Argentina is supported by the IMF in negotiations with creditors, as it faces the coronavirus and needs to free up resources from debt payments to tackle the crisis. Its proposal to Ad Hoc group of creditors including investment funds Black Rock and Fidelity is for a three year grace period on debt payments, 62% reduction of interest  amounting to $37 billion, and 5% reduction of capital or $3.6 billion. Earlier governments mishandled the economy leading to overborrowing on an unsustainable basis. Argentina has defaulted on debt 20 times in its history. The last being in 2001 with debt of $100 billion. The pattern of overborrowing and mismanagement by administrations modeled on free market economies has continued. Lenders, borrowers, and the government have not acted prudently knowing this history. ...

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Christina Zander provides an exceptionally good report on what holds women back in work and managing positions in Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Even in Norway, Sweden and Denmark, with a more enlightened outlook in gender relations, the number of women who are CEO's for 145 Nordic companies is only 3%. For the U.S. Fortune 500 this is about 5%. Good child care benefits and parental leave laws that promote a fair distribution of child raising responsibilities between men and women are part of the enlightened outlook in Nordic countries. Yet the number of women being promoted to senior positions is limited. Interestingly rules requiring quota for women on Boards of Directors have led to a different situation on Boards- in 2013 41% of the boards at Norway's public companies were women compared to 18% at private limited companies. About 5.8% of general managers at publicly listed companies were women in 2013, 15.1% in private companies. Sandvik's Ms. Einarsson was promoted to a senior position recently. She says the opposite is true, one needs to start not at the top but at the entry level to ensure women are fairly represented. Culture is part of the problem as even in companies with equal male and female employees, the managers are mostly men. Men are seen as more eager to take responsibilities and risks, and are more integrated into networks. Even childcare and paid parental leave can be deceptive. One researcher shows that Swedish women still take the major part of responsibility for children, with 75% of the 480 available days. Women managers and researchers point to the difficulties women face with a full time career or working over 60 hours a week in a management position, and combining this with picking up children from daycare. Sofia Falk is the founder of Wiminvest, which helps companies invest in geting talented women. Her suggestions are that companies offer other incentives instead of more money- an assistant, private child care, grocery shopping, shared management positions, technical solutions to be able to work at home. The CEO of Sandvik, Olof Faxander, is persistent in changing company attitudes- he has raised the proportion of women in management positions to 21% from 9% in 3 years, eventually hoping to reach 33%....

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The border crossing at Kirkenes, Norway, remains one of the few border points in the EU with Russia that are open, where visitors go back and forth between Russia and Norway. This part of Norway near the Arctic Circle was taken back by the Soviets in the war, after Nazi Germany occupied Norway. Russia let Norway run this region from that time leading to friendly relations. Norway is the only neighboring country that was never at war with Russia. Because of its location far up in the Arctic Circle it remains a unique location with Russian ships coming here. 
And 62 miles from the Norwegian coast is Russia's ballistic missile submarine fleet. Norway as part of NATO provides support to Ukraine with $7.2 billion in aid. It also is a major supplier to EU for oil and gas helping the EU after the cutoff of Russian oil and gas supplies.

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David Brooks of NYT povides this exceptional essay on a long neglected question. If so much of the politics today is about different communities that are alienated from each  other, what is it about these communities that makes this happen, and how did this come about? After decades of integrating communities and building the economy after the second world war through a strong middle class, what has happened now to see all that progress reverse itself. Rural America and the less educated voted in one way and the urban areas voted in the opposite way, one feeling neglected and the other becoming more segregated in cultural outlook, education, and work. Brooks cites a new book by Richard Reeves of the Brookings Institution called the "Dream Hoarders." The book shows two structural barriers that divide America. One is the residential zoning restrictions, housing and construction rules that keep the less educated away from the opportunities and schools in cities such as Portland, San Francisco and New York. The second structural barrier is the college admissions game that favors the parents and children of the better educated classes. The immigrant communities who come from families that are struggling hard to get into the middle class and upper class work hard to get an edge. As a result about 70 percent of the students in the top 200 competitive schools in America are from the top 25% in the income distribution.  Other barriers are formed by the extent of investment parents in one group put into their children, estimated at 300% by Brooks compared to a flat line for the other group. This accelerated investment leaves the other group far behind. Social barriers form to prevent the kind of interactions one would find normal in an open democratic society. Brooks say the cultural differences show up in the language and product selections, in food and other choices. Just take a typical Brooklyite and someone from western New York state. It is not the intent of one group to look upon this as a desired result. It is their indifference to what is happening that is alarming for a free, open and democratic society. It is their lack of understanding about the implications for life in a free, open, democratic society, of segregating themselves from the vast expanse of humanity around them. It is their lack of knowledge of the history of this continent built on the idea of education and opportunities for all from the time of Benjamin Franklin in Pennsylvania and the early settlers, the idea of out of many one- E Pluribus Unum. Yet out of this crisis something good can emerge if a way is found, and leadership is needed in the right direction with the right ideas, consistent with the ideals that guided the best leaders from its past. What resentment, alienation and wrong direction cannot do, courage, perseverance and right direction can do.     ...

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The last kick on goal in a penalty shootout between Sweden and the US is decided by VAR review. The ball was hit so well that the American goalkeeper had difficulty keeping the ball outside the goal line even though she pushed it out. The Swedish women's team kept a remarkable composure throughout the game and the shootout.

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Smaller companies are being squeezed by rapidly escalating costs as costs are going up as fast as oil prices, and face tighter emissions rules in Alberta's oil sands projects. Some projects now cost 2 to 3 times the original projections and there is a severe labor shortage. Even the big players will find it difficult and expensive. To meet the stringent emissions rules, as Prime Minister Harper signs on to new international greenhouse emissions targets, Shell may have to use a technology that captures CO2 from the plants that process the oil sands and store the gas underground. This costs $120 a ton, and would cost Shell upwards of $2 billion a year just to capture and store the CO2, for the 15-20 million tons of CO2 that would be emitted when it increases production to 770,000 barrels a day. The cleanup from oil sands processing is costly because processing is very pollution intensive. Production of one barrel from these oil sands is 3 times more polluting than producing conventional oil. Synenco Energy, which had a project in partnership with China's Sinopec for mining and processing the oil sands called Northern Lights for $10.8 billion, called off the project last year because of all these hurdles, slashed its work force, and decided it may sell the company. Currently 1.1 million barrels a day come from the Alberta oil sands. 2020 output was expected to rise to 4.3 million barrels a day. But now this looks too optimistic. CAPP forecests 3.8 million barrels a day, but even this may be on the high side. ...

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Betsy McKay reporting from Harper, Liberia, gives this exceptional report on the shattered health system of Liberia and how the country is coping following the Ebola Virus epidemic. The dilapidated poor state of health facilities in Liberia, and in neighboring Sierra Leone and Guinea, have made these areas especially vulnerable to the spread of Ebola Virus. With pictures and details about the lives of ordinary people McKay brings to life one of the poorest regions in the world, racked by years of war and neglect, showing people struggling to find their way with minimal health care. Tabeh Freeman, a professor of public health at William S. Tubman University in Harper, Liberia, says Liberia cannot cope if another epidemic takes place, with such a poorly equiped and broken health system. Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone estimate the need is for about $1.47 billion in the next 30 months to build and equip a new health system. The World Bank and other donors have come up with $1 billion for Ebola recovery. A particularly urgent problem is to see that adequate funding goes to build the infrastructure for the health system and to train people to provide health services....

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India's New Education Policy completes its first year of implementation.  Multiple entry points for studies so that students can change disciplines and try new areas of study - offers opportunities in a broad array of disciplines, and new combinations of disciplines to open new pathways to knowledge and work in a future economy. This encourages  students to try new areas of study and not be stuck in one course of study. Engineering and science taught in different Indian languages. 18 Engineering colleges in 8 states in India now offer engineering and science studies in Hindi, Marathi, Tamil, Telugu, and Bangla. India has a rich diversity of languages and this opens up opportunities for students who do better in their own home languages and brings opportunities to more people. Prime minister Modi emphasized the new approach has advantages- by breaking free of old conceptions of education, preparing for a New India in which youth of the country make their own systems, assure young people that the future is theirs to make. He stated that the New Education Policy is part of the endeavour of nation building, and the fate of India, how far and what height is achieved depends entirely on education received.   ...

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India registers an amazing comeback feat of 75% vaccinated with two doses on January 30, 2022, without the resistance to vaccination seen in US and Europe. For over a billion people this is nothing short of extraordinary. India's experience is similar to that in other parts of Asia and Latin America where people trust health authorites, after years of dealing with many diseases requiring vaccination in the last 50 years.

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At the G-7 meetings in Alberta, Canada DJT said the 2014 exclusion of Russian president Vladimir Putin, from the G8 after Moscow's unilateral annexation of Crimea, was a serious mistake leading to the war in Ukraine. "He [Putin] was insulted (...) Barack Obama and a person named [Justin] Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in. And I would say that was a mistake because you wouldn’t have a war right now" in Ukraine, Trump said in a discussion with journalists on the sidelines of the G-7 meeting with the Canadian PM Carney. This is a significant observation by DJT who understood better than Bush and Obama, Trudeau, what has preserved the peace in the world and the importance of US-Russia relations even after the end of the Cold War. This is true for DJT interaction with China also because DJT also maintains that despite China's assertion of rights in Hong Kong, despite the outsourcing of industry to China and Make In America, US-China relations are important for peace in the world. ...