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Inflation in the eurozone is running at 0.7%, well below the target of 2%. In a opening speech for a 2 day conference organized by the ECB in May 2014, ECB president Draghi said the increase in the value of the euro since 2011 has made commodities like oil cost less in euros, contributing to lower inflation. A key concern referred to in Draghi's speech is the data from Spain and Portugal about the difficulty for business to get loans in Spain and Portugal. About 25% of Spanish businesses and 33% of Portgual's businesses have difficulty getting loans. Even profitable companies have difficulty getting loans. One way the ECB could tackle this is to make cheap loans available to eurozone banks conditional on the money being lent to businesses and not invested in government bonds, as has happened during prior ECB efforts to capitalize banks.

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A hard look at the idea of the "Great Moderation" a peiod of stable prosperity that America has enjoyed for 20 or so years with low inflation, stable unemployment and smaller bumps along the road even in recessions such as the one in 1990 and in 2000 which had shorter durations with good rebound. The IMF report on the world economy for September looks at this period of stability and sees a continuation. This report takes a look at the current crises in housing and credit markets and takes a more cautious view wondering if things may be at a turning point where such stable growth cannot be taken as a given. In general the world economy has become more flexible and structural shifts to globalization and the shifts in manufacturing to other parts of the world such as emerging countries have made for a more resilient world economy compared to the economy that faced the oil shocks of the seventies. The three specific causes to which this stable period is attributed are the better handling of monetary policy, the better inventory management with Just in Time and manufacture to order, inventories literally being the shipments that are carried by Fedex or UPS on a particular day, and credit markets securitization of debt packaging it into marketable securities creating a large credit pool so thay companies could have better access to credit. Securtization has suffered because some of the basic rules were broken such as how securities are rated and not because of the basic concept. Have the markets and investors and households taken on more risk in their asset portfolios because of the belief that this period of 'Great Moderation' would simply continue. Its these kinds of behaviour that get tripped up until things get cleared up and return to normal. Is this simply a phase like the prior downturns preceding it that should see a similiar rebound or is it something different. One thing that is noted is that the period of relative prosperity has ocurred as in many countries in Europe and Asia. And the housing markets in many countries in Europe and Asia have also seen rising prices similar to that of the US. Can this turn into a worldwide recessionary situation? Comment made later on April 12, 2008 after the Bear Stearns crisis in March 2008 and the Fed meeting summary describing the downturn as expected to " be protracted and severe", and the emergency measures by the Fed itself made to prevent a possible global financial crisis. In hindsight the 3 reasons for the Great Moderation can be evaluated in this way. The first was the only real one to which researchers attribute about 50% of the Great Moderation, which is the revolution that Just In Time inventories have accomplished for smoothing drops in demand. The second financial innovation proved to be illusory just as mentioned here because it was gamed because the financial houses and other firms were able to get around regulation or the regulations were inadequate and the innovation fell victim to unrestrained greed in the manner mortgage securitization was done. The third wise better monetary policy as mentioned here did not get much credit from researchers and this turns out to be true. Keeping interests rate low was possible because of the disinflationary aspect of globalization specifically manufacturing in China which ended in 2007. Further the success of the US economy made it possible for the US dollar to remain strong and the USA to continue to attract capital for much of this period even while interest rates were low. But its the export of disinflation from China, and no pressures of inflation from globalization through commodities demand for much of this period, that kept inflation low and made it possible for the Fed to keep interest rates low without creating inflationary pressures. Of the three financial innovation and monetary policy may have in them in fact unlike the first Just in Time and information technology, may have in them the seeds of trouble as well as gain if not carefully managed, like fire a good servant but bad master, and this is really what happened in what turns out to be a very human world, greed subverted financial innovation without the necessary appropriate regulation to go with it and the Fed's libertarian instincts and complacency or lack of energetic oversight under a man past eighty years made it lose sight of its need to adjust interest rates to cool off excesses in the market and send appropriate signals to the financial and housing markets. The Economist was slightly ahead of the curve when it makes the observation here that this is likely to be a global housing crisis and a global credit crisis with all the implications of this for global economic growth. ...

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Two Harvard economists, Lawrence Summers and Lant Pritchett, say China is likely to revert to the mean of average long term growth of developed countries after this spurt of growth is over. Growth is likely to slow to 6% by 2016, and revert to the mean of 2% for industrialized countries in the long term. Goldman Sachs banker Jim O'Neill, says the growth at a higher rate could be sustained because of urbanization. Summers does not rule out this outcome as he accepts a range of outcomes, with the most likely outcome being a reversion to the mean. The factors often cited for slowing growth are lower of productivity of capital as corruption and close connections determine where capital is allocated, misallocation of capital, large increases in credit in the economy since 2009 leading to bad debt in the financial system, aging society and demographics with increasing numbers of older people. Other reasons are the choices being made by Chinese leaders for slowing down to address the problems of air pollution and contamination of water supplies, inflation in housing prices, overdependence on exports, need to shift to increasing domestic consumer spending but unable to do this with the lack of spending power of large parts of the population because wealth is excessively concentrated in the upper ranks of society. The need to manage these forces ensuring some measure of stability depends on finding ways to reduce the growing concentration of wealth and power, in itself a challenge for the Communist Party elite. A combination of different factors with some still unknown factors are likely to play a part in this reversion to the mean for China, a situation encountered by every country so far in North America, Europe and Japan. This makes it even more important that each developing society structure its development around the most optimal goals with the least costs attached to the development....

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This WSJ editorial in September 2014 says many of president Obama's statements and decisions on Obama healthcare legislation and implementation, Syria, NSA and privacy, the Middle East, Russia, showed poor judgement. It refers to a piece by Peter Baker in NYT where it is said that Obama mocked how people see him as too professorial, diffident, in a sarcastic statement. The problem says WSJ is that president Obama has poor judgement. Being academically credentialed and quick grasp of subject matter is not the same as having the ability to discern things, instinct and grasp of the essence of the matter. George Bush senior had a long resume and was academically credentialed. By comparison Truman had a short resume and was not academically credentialed or quick with data and analysis. He had something more essential and important- a discerning mind and grasp of the larger picture, as well as listening abilities for exceptional advisors such as General Marshall and Acheson he gathered around him....

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Ms. Le Pen of the National Front called her going into the second round runoff against Macron's En Marche movement, "an act of French pride." Emmanuel Macron has his own way of looking at this. As this NYT editorial points out Macron says his is a movement "of patriots fighting the threat of nationalism." At his rallies and the rally following coming out the front runner in the first round of elections Macron is shown with people waving French flags all around him. The message- that in today's world of global cooperation for economic progress nationalist feeling has to be balanced with healthy cooperation and integration into the regional community, the European Union. That he is a patriot who also has in him a feeling for the communities in his wider region. That real economic progress can only be achieved working in cooperation with neighboring countries and regional community, and around new ideas for renewal.

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Barry Schwartz, a Psychology Professor at Swarthmore College, and author of Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less, points out that the 35 years of research shows that you get exactly what you pay for, but it turns out to be the opposite of what you want, and there are a lot of ways that incentive based compensation can go wrong. In theory choosing a parameter like share price and creating incentives to promote shareholder interests through higher share price as a measure of executive performance is reasonable, but it assumes that there is no manipulation of share price, or other external factors do not distort the measure of performance. In reality you get a situation like Merrill Lynch and other financial firms that gave out huge bonuses and executive pay even while bad decisions- that were later to sink the firms- were being incentivized. Schwartz points to research worldwide by Bruno Frey, Oberhozer-Gee, Uri Gneezy, James Heyman and Dan Ariely, that shows that incentives tend to remove the moral dimension from decisionmaking. Heyman's reaearch showed that when people offer passers by a token payment for help lifting a couch from a van, they are less likely to lend a hand when they are offered nothing. The question people ask themselves he says when money isn't part of the equation is very different he says: what are my responsibilities, what should I do that will fulfill these responsibilities to other people and to my country? In his view even though we put a lot of faith in incentives as a society to influence behaviour in a positive way, they actually do the reverse. Even if they work for some time, after a while some people who have fewer scruples learn ways to game the system and gradually distort the way it functions, leading to perverse results endangering all....

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Will the long awaited Obama plan do enough to reduce foreclosures and help the economy? $75 billion will go to help homeowners facing foreclosure. But it continues the earlier course of letting it be voluntary for banks and lending institutions to decide if they in fact want to reduce the mortgage payment to 38% of the borrower's income. If they do the government provides an incentive of $1000 for every loan modified, and more payments if the borrower stays current. If the lender decides that its not in its interest to make concesssions to reduce the payments to 38% of the borrower's income, in exchange for the $1000 incentive, it could well decide to do nothing, and even continue the current practice of adding on interest and penalties that actually increase the mortgage payment in many cases. Is it enough? Clearly no, if Mark Zandl, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com is right, and helps only 1 million of the estimated 14 million people who are under water, and the homes are worth much less than the outstanding mortgage. As Martin Feldstein has pointed out for the last year since early 2008, its these people who are under water that need to be helped, and not in a piecemeal or voluntary way as Obama is suggesting. It only goes to show that after all the rhetoric, Government both Republican and Democratic, differ only in degrees in the way they are responding to the foreclosure crisis, that is at the root of the financial crisis. The tidal wave of foreclosures, the other 13 million borrowers that are not helped by this plan but are under water, with growing numbers because of growing layoffs, suggest a serious failure to tackle the problem, with serious consequences for 2009 and beyond....

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Prakash and Ghosh in the Hindusthan Times remind readers that even though India has ambitious plans for renewable energy much remains to be done in shifting to clean coal technologies. An estimated 80% of India's coal plants use obsolete technologies, making this an obvious area for improvement. India plans to make solar the source of 100GW of 175GW it plans to generate in renewable energy by 2022. Yet it must not be forgotten that coal is a dominant source for the foreseeable future and shifting to clean coal technologies is an area that should get top priority from the government. Today India is the third largest in terms of carbon emissions after the U.S and China.

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The Peronist candidate Alberto Fernandez wins Argentina's election with 48% support. Mr. Macri's economic policy led to mismanagement of the economy, and recession, high inflation. Mr. Macri took on $100 billion in foreign debt and had to turn to the IMF for a $57 billion bailout. The shift in administration happens as the peso tumbles. By lifting capital controls in 2016 when the official rate was 10 to the dollar Mr. Macri shifted direction but failed to manage this in a prudent way leading to a jump in the foreign debt. By the second half of 2018 this policy led to the peso falling to 45 to the dollar and another drop by mid 2019 to about 60 to the dollar. The central bank has burned about $22 billion or a third of the central bank reserves to defend the peso, including $4 billion only last week. A third of this decline in reserves is due to withdrawals as capital controls were reimposed., the remainder due to interest on debt and bank interventions in currency markets to defend the peso. Customers are now limited to $100 in withdrawals leading to demand in the black market pushing the rate to 75 pesos to the dollar. Argentina is no stranger to these crises, yet they repeat every 10-15 years. The earlier Peronist administration of Mr. Nestor Kirchner came in when there was economic collapse in 2003 and had to suspend debt payments as a last resort. Negotiations were begun with lenders only after 2007 when Mr. Kirchner's wife Christina Kirchner assumed office. She won the election in 2011 but was defeated in the 2015 election by Mr. Macri, and reelected in 2019 as vice president running under her former chief of staff Mr. Alberto Fernandez. The Peronists are a socialist party and restored a degree of stability to the economy, limiting foreign debt and managing the economy with a rebound in commodity prices such as soyabeans exported by Argentina to meet growing demand in China. By 2015 the country appeared ready for a change, but Mr. Macri's austerity policies and mismanagement of the debt led to a repeat of earlier crises with high inflation and collapsing peso, hitting working class Argentines.    Argentina has a long history of alienation with IMF loans with policy strings attached for austerity spending, starting in 1957.  About 58% of the people who voted Macri into office opposed turning to the IMF in May 2018 after interest rates were raised to 40% by the central bank to stem a drop in the peso. The IMF loan this time was a shorter duration loan on better and was supposed to help Mr. Macri stabilize the economy and its cash and payments position. The jump in foreign debt including issue of dollar denominated bonds, lack of caution and prudence in managing the finances, lack of currency controls, drop in foreign investment by 2019, and the fall in commodity prices from the commodity boom years especially soyabeans, combined to create another collapse in Argentina. It was thought that the 2003 crisis that hit the working class and poor hardest was behind it once and for all. Yet only 15 years later the country is in a similar mess and hardships, showing that prudent management of finances, maintaining social programs to support the middle and weaker segments, and ways to create sustainable growth from within, are still the major problems facing not just Argentina, but also Brazil, Chile and other nations of Latin America.   ...

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Buffett's view that higher capital gains taxes will not result in less business investment. He favors a $500,000 figure instead of the $250,000 proposed by president Obama for Bush tax cuts for incomes below that level.

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The shift to digital from newsprint for newspapers in the U.S. is taking place in gradual steps. Print ad still account for 86% of $24 billion in revenues for the newspapers in 2011, according to the Newspaper Association of America. About 45 million buyers for the 1400 newspapers in the U.S. put their hands on a printed paper edition each day. At the same time print revenues have fallen by half since 2007. So as not to overly disturb the existing customer base for newsprint papers, and wary of the still developing revenue model with lower revenues of the digital newspapers, Advance Publications is making a gradual shift to three days a week from daily papers. In 2009 it moved the An Arbor News to two print editions weekly and in early 2012 it shifted 7 other daily papers in local communities of Michigan to 3 times a week print editions. The pulbback has shifted readers to the paper's websites. Local communties depend on papers in a crisis such as the one that hit Louisiana with Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Circulation for the Times-Picayune in New Orleans has declined by half to 133, 557 daily in March 2012. Yet the digital edition has a distinct advantage because journalists continued to provide reports online when the hurricane knocked out printing presses. The advantage continues with the lighter iPad tablet devices which will make the papers accessible in a convenient hand holdable way. The problem is with the revenue stream which has not been established in a convincing way for digital as yet so that it would support hiring journalists. As it shifts to online reporting on its site Nola.com, Advance publications will shift to 3 print editions per week in New Orleans. And this will mean laying off 50 journalists, and covering a region with 1.3 million people with the remaining 100 journalists. Advance Publications will do the same for its papers in Birmingham and Huntsville in Alabama. For journalists like Caroline Little, a former publisher of the Washingtonpost.com, the scary thing is that fewer and fewer journalists are supported by the online model, and yet the shift to digital is unmistakable. For reaching younger readers not accustomed to holding a print newspaper, it is also the only way forward. ...

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Aldi store name comes from the store name Albrecht's Discount for stores opened by 1961 in Germany by the Albrecht brothers. The brothers worked at their mother's grocery store in Essen Germany, following their father's disability and not being able to work in the mines. After serving in the war the two brothers expanded the small family grocery store into a chain of about 15 stores. By 1955 this chain had expanded to about 100 stores, and in 1961 the chain took on the Aldi name. The brothers separated their business in later years with Karl taking on the Aldi Sud stores in southern Germany and expanding into UK, Australia and the U.S. Theo, the younger brother, ran the Aldi Nord stores in northern Germany, of what was then West Germany. Aldi Nord expanded in Europe and acquired Trader's Joe in 1979. The two brothers agreed to stay out of each others territory in this unique arrangement. The Albrechts felt strongly in the post war conditions in Germany that "customers with very limited income should be able to eat and drink quality food," according to a statement by Aldi Sud. Karl Albrecht saw this as his calling- to find creative ways to do this. One way was to get rid of other unnecessary expenses such as display and advertising that could be passed on as savings to customers. In this sense Aldi laid the ground for American retailer Wal-Mart. By 1955 Aldi had 100 stores in West Germany. Expansion thereafter made Aldi a household name in most parts of Europe and the U.S. Karl and Theo remained reclusive throughout their life, more so after Theo's kidnapping in Essen in 1971 for a ransom of 7 million deutsche marks. Karl operated the Aldi Sud stores till he was 75 and passed away in 2014 at the age of 94. Ikea founder from Sweden also has a similiar history in being very private, frugal, and living in a small town in Switzerland, providing direction to the company well past his eightieth year. He pioneered the concept of well designed quality furniture at affordable prices that passes on savings to customers. The same concept and vision inspired Ikea founder- that people of average means and younger families starting a home, should be able to afford furniture quality and design in their homes....

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Public perceptions in the USA of China are changing. Today 42% have unfavorable views of China vs. 39% tha have favorable views of China from survey results released in August by the Pew Research Center. This is a change from 2007 when 42% polled had a positive view of China and 39% a negative view. Things that have changed since then are the Tibet riots and China's strong reaction, the issues of contaminated Chinese products entering the USA market and the nationalism in China on the eve of the Olympics. The last touches McCain and his senior advisor on China, Michael Green of Georgetown University, who finds the Chinese reaction on issues like trade to be cocky but cocky to the point of being arrogant. His comment "the combination of arrogance and insecurity can be dangerous." Green was on the National Security Council under President George W. Bush. McCain and Green want to bolster trade relations with other Asian countries like India to help the USA strengthen its bargaining power with China. McCain wants to strictly enforce trade agreements with China including blocking unsafe products from China. The shift in opinion in the USA at a time when there is a shift in opinion in China to a nationalistic tone sensitive to criticism of China even when it concerns issues like Tibet which do not affect any vital interests of China should be seen as significant. This is happening at the same time as a candidate like McCain who has less tolerance for Russia and a similar position for China is running strongly for President and has the experience and support of most Americans on foreign policy issues. Its useful also to see that the figures given here show 60% of Russians seeing China in a favorable light and only 30% in an unfavorable light. And when you look at France and Germany, 72% in France and 68% in Germany see China in an unfavorable light, only 28 and 26% respectively having a favorable opinion. Britain is an exception because 47% of the British public has a favorable opinion of China, only 36% having an unfavorable view. The figures are from Pew Research Center polls of 4,257 adults in he five countries conducted in March and April (international views)....

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Tata Sons, the holding company for Tata Group companies, is looking for a successor to Ratan Tata. The Tata Group of companies cover a whole range of products from steel and cars, to information technology and consumer products. This includes India's second largest automobile company and India's second largest IT outsourcing company. Tata has in all 98 firms. It made acquisitions of Corus, a British and Dutch steel producer for $12 billion, and of Jaguar and Land Rover for $2.3 billion. Ratan Tata did much of the reorganization of the old Tata Group over the last 2 decades. The company started during the Victorian era as a maker of textiles. It was founded by Jamshedji Tata. His vision was to establish Tata as a steel maker and to invest in education and research institutes for India's technological revolution. The Tata companies also set their own high business standards based on the founder's concepts. And unique in India, Tata Sons was setup so that two thirds of the company is owned by charitable trusts. Jamshedji spent time in Britain during the Victorian period, admired Gladstone, was a forward looking visionary believing in and providing inspiration for India's future technological development. During the early ears after independence the company was run by JRD Tata who maintained the legacy, but it was Ratan Tata his successor from the same Parsi family, who reorganized and established Tata as the company it is today. The Tata Nano was a result of Ratan Tata's vision of a car that would cost one lakh rupees, and be an affordable car for millions of people in India who now drive motorcycles. With the magnitude of the responsibility, the search for Ratan Tata's successor, is being closely watched in India. This time the Tata Group is looking at outsiders and searching for the right person. Now 65% of Tata Group's revenues of $70.8 billion come from overseas, which would suggest the value of international experience. In fact British Prime Minister Cameron cited Tata Sons as being Britain's largest manufacturer. ...

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Britain's prime minister David Cameron seeks a "better deal" for Britain before the planned referendum on Britain's membership in the union. Changes Britain is seeking are: restrictions on some social welfare benefits for European migrants for 4 years, guarantees that Britain and other countries using a currency other than the euro would not suffer economic discrimination, and more powers for national parliaments to block European laws. A less tangible change is one that relates to the preamble to the Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957, the founding treaty for the bloc, which says: "Ever closer union among the peoples of Europe." This is similiar to the preample to the American Constitution: "We the people of the United States in order to form a more perfect union." The euroskeptic wing of the Conservative Party objects to this term "ever closer union," and Cameron will seek a pledge to change the wording. Yet as experts point out the phrase was put in as a result of British requests from the John Major Conservative government in response to a stronger wording from the Dutch government suggesting a federal Europe. Veteran reporters and negotiators at the Maastricht talks, say it is strange that Britain is now objecting to the words. Stephen Wall, a British historian on Britain's relations with the European Union, and a former senior official in the British government, says Margaret Thatcher and other British prime ministers did not object to this. That this issue comes up now is a result says Wall, of Britain's sense of being on the sidelines, of being on the outside to a close partnership between the French and the Germans, and as a result of being outvoted on issues Britain considers important. The president of the European parliament, Martin Schulz, says the change would require the approval of all 28 EU members, and an alternative is for a declaration that states Britain is not included in the sense of the phrase....

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How Sweden in 1992 and is Finance Minister Lundgren faced a similar crisis in its banking system after a housing bubble in that country collapsed. At that time the way Sweden approached it set aside 65 billion kronor or $11.7 billion dollars then or $18.3 billion in today's dollars, 4% of its gross domestic product, for rescuing failing banks. The US plan for $700 billion is roughly 5% of gross domestic product. But the way Sweden did it it extracted full price from shareholders and rescue was arrranged only after the Swedish government got a big equity share in the banks that were rescued. Lundgren is concerned that the US plan does not provide for the US government to take big equity stakes in the banks that receive government money. By selling off these shares in better times the government of Sweden has recovered most of the money depending on how its calculated. However the US government has taken big ownership stakes in Fannie, Freddie, and in AIG. And the plan is not yet spelled out. In terms of its size its similar to the Swedish plan an in this sense its similar, a big government effort to take a decisive and complete approach to the problem. In the short run this may create problems for the dollar according to currency experts like John Taylor, but some experts like currency strategist at Deutsche Bank think that in the longer term this rescue plan hel[ps American macroeconomic fundamentals and in doing so will help the dollar. Another factor is the European economy and as Europe also faces some problems of its own, from a housing bubble standpoint Britain, Ireland and Spain fall in the same boat as the Americans, and Germany may also have some bad loan problems of its own, so the macroeconomic fundamentals may weaken in Europe over time and this might also favor the dollar vs the euro in the longer term. ...

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Rural America has the same percentage of Americans that are prone to fringe views as urban America about 27%, the rest are simply trying to find ways to meet severe health, educational, lack of investment in rural areas by government, and cost of living challenges, that other communities have, says Nicholas Jacobs, professor of Colby College. He knows rural America as he shows in his new book -The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America. Jacobs lives in rural Maine and has both studied reams of data and himself lives in a rural area. Here is the truth he says- Rural America is suffering from chronic health conditions, health worker and hospital shortages, limited employment opportunities and infrastructure deficits, rural schools suffering from funding gaps and teacher shortages. Similar to urban, yes, yet even worse, and need understanding not recrimination. What JFK rightly called, a policy "to lift all boats," from his speech in Arkansas, saying rural Arkansas was as much the Nation, as Massachusetts. He warns Americans to be careful what they listen to about rural America in talk shows or in books written to get audiences from one segment of the population or the other, with gross mischaracterizations of Rural America and its so called rage, with condescending views about people simply struggling to make sense of all the change some of it for the worse going on around them- in this period of Beaverbrook television or internet media. Beaverbook television is after a press baron in the last century in Britain who saw it fit to take advantage of crises of any sort to sell tons of newspapers for a profit, along the way promoting any bias that he had regardless of whether it was proven right or wrong. At one point UK press barons including Beaverbrook, controlled 13 million circulation the most in the world in 1947. Today instead of newsprint it is in book, television, social media or the internet video formats. This can concoct narratives of people that do not exist by using polls that are inadequate, and superficial understanding, with no effort to look for credible answers to difficult questions, and no effort to look for solutions that "lifts all boats," in America and in the World. ...

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Turkey is reviving its relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Prince Bin Salman will visit Turkey as part of a remake of Turkey Saudi relations. Turkey's economic crisis has revived the relationship as Turkey badly needs aid for its economy. The pressure on emerging markets is increasing with US central bank raising rates reducing inflows of western money into Turkey even further. Prince Salman has already received visits from French and British leaders. He visited Jordan and Egypt this week and will now be in Ankara. In the summer he will visit Greece and Cyprus. Saudis are modernizing their economy changing culture in relationships of men and women, in women's rights and education, and broadening relationships with the world under Salman. There is an astonishing openness to science and technology in a drive to be modern. The old Saudi monarchy and conservative rule with ancient traditions is giving way to what the Saudis in the group under Salman see as the modernization of Europe and America in the 20th century using science and technology as what they would like to see in their own country. There is also a drive to think independently from the dogmatic positions of the past that have turned the Kingdom into an American dependency with no obligation or incentive to modernize its culture and be open to the world outside.  The US fought a war to ostensibly modernize a backward mountainous remote state as Afghanistan, while being perfectly comfortable with the old Saudi monarchies of the past that made little change in the ancient culture and tradition and in women's rights and education. Such were the contradictions in American policy and the failure to think anew. As president Lincoln said "as our case is new we must think anew, and act anew." President Biden will now visit Saudi Arabia to build a new relationship with an independent nation, which along with the UAE is bringing change to the Middle East through infrastructure development and modernization. Salman's modernization comes as the kingdom also faced a need to make a transition out of dependence on fossil fuels. Salman sees trips to Greece and Turkey as opening up to all sides. Saudis have good relations with Israel and Egypt another part of this openness. The US senses this, India has sensed this. India's Modi government  made sending the Oxford vaccines manufactured in India to Saudis a priority during 2021. The Indian example is also changing the way the UAE and Saudis see infrastructure development and modernization in the region. This is also changing the way the region is looking at itself. For decades Egypt lacking the resources to build infrastructure on its own has languished economically. A helping hand from the Saudis is changing Egypt. The entire rail system is being modernized with the latest technology from Siemens. The Saudis have stabilized the Egyptian economy with a $5 billion deposit in the Central Bank of Egypt. On June 21 Egypt and Saudis signed $7.7 billion in investment deals for infrastructure, logistics, port administration, food, industry, medicine, energy and technology. In the investments in Egypt some of the oil money going to Saudis with $100 per barrel oil price is going to an economy in Egypt that can easily absorb and make good use of the investment to modernize.   The influence of Saudi leverage in fossil fuels which drove the US relationship with Saudis since FDR is being replaced with an independent Saudi kingdom making decisions to modernize across the board in all aspects compared to one that favored a few American companies such as Exxon Mobil and ARAMCO or arms makers such as Boeing and Lockheed that helped recycle American money going to pay for Saudi fossil fuels back to America.    ...