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Higher per capita wheat consumption in Middle East countries means that the impact of rising wheat prices hits these countries harder. Wheat futures have gone up by 91% in less than one year. Tunisians for example eat 478 pounds per person a year compared to 177 pounds in the U.S., according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. Governments in the Middle East buy wheat at world prices and subsidize it heavily to meet the needs of their people. Wheat at these prices cost Egypt $361 per metric ton in February, which was up significantly from $172 in July 2010. This adds $1.7 billion to Egypt's import bill in 12 months.

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How inflation and particularly food prices are bringing people out on the streets to protest in the Arab countries, in the Emirates and in Egypt. With the oil prices and huge investments in Arab countries comes inflation in all prices and hit commodities and food the hardest making life difficult for the poor and lower classes even as wages are stagnant. Something to watch carefully as the Arab countries go through unprecedented change.

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David Filipov of the Washington Post visits Sochi, site of the 2014 WInter Olympics, three years later to find a city that is bustling even in winter. Before the Olympics Sochi was popular destination for tourists. In 2016 and in 2017 about 6.5 million people visited this city on the Black Sea coastline. With the new facilities built during the Olympics Sochi has become a year round destination. Russian tourists visiting Turkey and Egypt find Sochi an attractive alternative after the road and rail links built into the mountains. Officially sponsored events are giving Sochi more popularity. During the Olympics the estimated $50 billion cost of building facilities was criticized for delays and cost overruns. The better management during the post-Olympic period is showing Sochi has a future as a popular tourist destination.

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Karen Elliott House, a former publisher of the Wall Street Journal, who won a Pulitzer prize for reporting on the Middle East, is now researching Saudi society. She now writes this scathing report from Saudi Arabia. She says that just as in Egypt, an old corrupt leadership continues in power for several decades, an old corrupt leadership in the form of 7000 princes in a vast royal family. King Abdullah is in his eighties and the ruling princes have an average age of 83, and have illnesses for which they are under medical treatment. They continue to lead a nation where 60% of the people are young people under the age of 18! Itself an astounding fact. Karen House points out that the internet and social media have also made the young very knowledgeable about the conditions in the country- where 40% of Saudis live in poverty and 70% cannot afford a home. Bad managemet by the princes has affected basic services including the sewage and drainage problems in Jeddah after the floods. It is astounding that far less wealthy Gulf sheikdoms are doing a better job of providing education, jobs and health care. Thirty years of visiting Saudi Arabia, and the last four years of intensive reporting, has persuaded Karen House that this situation is at an impasse that might end up resolving itself through some sort of upheaval. To Karen House this looks like the last days of the aging leadership under Brezhnev before the Soviet Union collapsed....

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King Salman appoints Mohamed bin Nayef, 55 years-old, as the deputy crown prince in Jan. 2015. The crown prince is Muqrin Abdulaziz, 69 years-old. Mohamed Bin Nayef is the son of the Interior Minister, who worked under his father from 1999 till he became the new Interior minister in 2012. Nayef has pursued an aggressive program to remove Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. By taking action against all dissent inside Saudi Arabia Nayef has also jailed human rights activists, including the flogging of a blogger critical of the government. The defense minister Prince Mohamed bin Salman, is a son of King Salman. King Salman was defense minister till he succeeded his half-brother Abdullah. Ali al-Naimi continues as Oil minister, a position he has held for decades. Saudi Arabia established a panel in 2006 to work with future kings after King Salman to appoint an heir to the throne. Even with the appointment of Nayef, a grandson of Saudi Arabia's founder, Abdulaziz ibn Saud, as deputy crown prince, the leadership of the country remains within a small number of princes of the royal family. Under the Obama administration the relations between U.S. and Saudi Arabia have become strained with president Obama's failure to intervene in Syria. The Saudi have pursued their own policies since then, in first Bahrain and then Egypt the Saudis supported the monarchy and the military respectively to maintain power in the face of the Arab Spring. The danger is that Saudi policies may be contrary to the U.S. position supporting freely elected governments and basic rights, particularly when it comes to suppression of all dissent including peaceful dissent and normal criticism of government, and yet with the rise of Islamic State the U.S. puts itself inadvertently behind these very policies. The Saudis would say this has happened because U.S. president Obama failed to support the effort for freedom in Syria and a transition in Libya and Iraq (with the added complication of Maliki's sectarian policies), creating a war torn neighborhood in which the Saudis had to act on their own. These are the hidden costs of the policy of the U.S. president for the U.S. and for the Middle East- more sectarianism with Shiites and Sunnis openly in conflict, reversal of hard won gains in Iraq, reversal of the Arab Spring except in Tunisia, war torn Libya and Iraq- with a withdrawal that never truly happened because it required a firmly guided transition period of support in the region with lower cost and involvement of an extended period leaving no room for reversal of gains. It leaves both the Saudis and the U.S. in a more precarious position than a decade ago....

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The four decades of Libyan rule by Moammar Gaddafi that started in 1969 with a 27 year old Bedouin officer in the Libyan army ousting King Idris. It led to change in Libya in the first decade but deteriorated in the next three decades. Libya's support of terrorist groups and plane bombings of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, and other actions, led to a UN embargo of Libya. The rule of Gaddafi in Libya, as of Mubarak in Egypt led to economic stagnation and suppression of civil liberties, followed by repression, which delayed the development of the Arab countries for several decades. The move from a monarchy to the rule by military officers turned out to be a disaster for the Arab world over these four decades.

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The Berlin conference in 2020 on Libya is an effort taken seriously by chancellor Merkel and French president Macron, supported by president Trump, for an "inner-Libyan reconciliation process" with "a sovereign Libya" that would prevent another larger large scale emigration to Europe from North Africa. On one side is a UN backed government of Mr. Fayez Sarraj, that controls Tripoli and the west and on the other a group of Militias under Mr. Haftar that controls the south and east.  Various foreign powers are fueling the conflict and the goal is have them disengage and drop support for their faction- Turkey for the Tripoli government and the Saudis and UAE, with Egypt, Russia supporting the rival government. All hope to gain influence, for what that means, at the risk of large scale refugees and further destruction, and dislocation of European unity through large scale emigration to Europe. It is almost like the Thirty Years War when Sweden, Austria, and the French fought proxy wars in Europe in other countries mainly in German states and central Europe. That period? - 1618-1648, losses of 8 million dead from wars, famine and plague, with loss of 20% of the German population. What started as Catholic- Protestant ended up with Austrian Hapsburg- French rivalry wars, today local religious factions conflict with secular factions ending with rival power conflict.  The foreign policy expert for Merkel Mr. Hardt says "it is key to the further stabilization of North and West Africa. If we succeed in leading Libya into a peaceful future, it would be a milestone for the entire region." ...

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In a time of relative prosperity in the first months after the boom years uptil 2007, in April 2008 to be specific, it is strange but true that food crisis is overshadowing the credit and housing crisis in the USA. At the G7 meeting, World Bank president, Zoellick, made a passionate statement about the crisis that is developing across Asia and developing countries elsewhere as food prices go through the roof. The World Bank and the IMF are stepping in, but the focus at the G7 meeting was on the US dollar and the world financial system. There have been serious problems about food shortages in Philippines, Indonesia, Haiti and Egypt, and even in other countries like China and India the increase in the price of rice by 146% makes for a serious food crisis. See the link to this.

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Two Syrian cities are among the oldest in the world going back to 3000 BC. They are Aleppo and Damascus. This is close to when Varanasi on the Ganges in India was settled. Aleppo is older than Damascus.  The only European city that comes close is Plovdiv, Bulgaria, says this report in The Guardian. Most of the Syrian region is populated by Syrian Sunnis about 75% and there are Christian, 10%, Shia Alawite 11%, and other minorities in Syria.  The Syrian Civil War 2011-2024 destroyed most of the old city of Aleppo. Syria has 110 miles of Mediterranean coastline, mountains along the coastline and and area inland of wheat cultivation along the Euphrates river and the Syrian desert near Iraq in the east, Turkey to the north with Kurds in that area, and Jordan in the south. The Ottoman Turks ruled from 1516 to 1918. In 1920 a French Mandate was setup in Syria till 1943. Following the Second World War Syria was an independent nation and briefly joined Egypt in the UAR United Arab Republic.  ...

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Compared to the situation in North Africa in 2016 with emigration to Europe and the migrant crisis happening without any preparation to prevent it in 2015-2016, Germany and France are acting in coordination with Russia and Turkey, Saudis, UAE, to provide stability to the region. Angela Merkel will host leaders Macron, U.S. Secretary of State  Pompeo, and representatives of foreign powers in Berlin to work out a deal for disengagement of foreign powers. Turkey and the United Nations support a government of National Accord in Tripoli which controls the west of Libya, and a Libyan-American Mr. Haftar has a militia that controls the south and east with the help of Egypt, UAE, and Russia. Earlier the U.S. under president Trump had distanced itself from the region, but Mr. Trump and his advisors now see the need to engage in the region to ensure stability, and support the Europeans in the effort to prevent the large scale emigration that threatens European unity. Europe following the 2015 Merkel migrant crisis is acting with the policy of heading off both wars, terrorism and economic dislocation that fuels emigration right at the points of origin, before it even starts. This shows that the French after action in Ivory Coast and Mali and the Germans with aid to Africa are remaining involved in development and stability programs in Africa, lessons learned from 2015. The goal of the Berlin meetings is to arrange high level agreement for foreign powers to withdraw from destabilizing the Arab regions in North Africa particularly Libya by supplying weapons and support to quarreling factions. ...

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This editorial in the Economist says the new unity government setup through the United Nations sponsored talks in Tunisia is the best hope for bringing peace and recovery for Libya. With the attacks and presence of ISIS in Libya the oil production has declined by 75% since 2011, and the UN sponsored 6000 troop stabilization force is the next step to bring a measure of peace and stability to Libya so that it can recover. It is not enough for the west to just watch as happened following the fall of Gaddafi, a grave mistake, it is important that the west and the UN take steps to give Libya the stability it needs to recover, says the Economist. Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other powers in the Middle East that turned the region into a proxy war also need to work together and see that it in the best interests of the region to bring peace and development to Arab North Africa.

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Walter Mead describes the roots of the refugee crisis in 2015, as millions of refugees flee Syria, Iraq, and other countries in the Middle East, lying in the failure of governments throughout the Middle East to accomodate modernity, women's rights and technological progress into the old Islamic thinking. He says he sees this in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, and other countries in the Middle East. The Arab Spring which aroused so much hope for the people of the region has floudered in the failure of both the Islamic leaders, the military elite, and civil society to come up with a consensus rooted in what a modern Islamic society that accomodates modernity, women's rights, the participation of people in their government, technological progress should look like. The Western nations of Europe and the U.S. also underwent soul searching to come up with a modern Christian society through its own struggles, which the Islamic societies have failed to do; and as a result floundered and broken up by sectarian, religious and military conflicts. Mead takes the long view, yet falls short when it comes to how European leaders and societies face individual challenges to bring their own Christian faith and ideals into the real world, in the way chancellor Merkel has responded in Germany. Europeans have had their own period of conflicts and civil wars, the refugee crisis and refugees in chancellor Merkel's words who "have gone through the hell of a civil war" are very real, and how each European responds defines who he is and how far Europe has come from its own dark days....

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Efforts by prime minister Erdogan of Turkey to reach a peace agreement with the Kurdish PKK and its leader Mr. Ocalan who is in a Turkish prison since 1999. Mr. Ocalan is reported to be ready to reach an agreement. Prime minister Erdogan is keen on reaching an agreement because of the war in Syria, where a group related to the PKK and Ocalan is in control of the Kurdish northeastern region in Syria. This creates a situation where the Kurds in northern Iraq and in Syria could form a Kurdish state. Other reasons for Erdogan to push forward with an agreement are his intention to rewrite the Turkish constitution to setup an executive presidency. Erdogan would then be able to run for president. He would need Kurdish voters support for this move. In recent years Turkey has moved closer to Iraq, is its main trading partner and a destination for Turkish exports. Turkey now sees itself as a regional power in the Middle East after years of waiting to become part of the European Union. Turkey sees other advantages for this move to a peaceful Middle East- it sees benefits from trade with Egypt, and a new Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, making the whole region a destination for Turkish exports and foreign investment. As part of this move Erdogan's administration is lifting curbs on the use of the Kurdish language in the Kurdish southeast of Turkey and in the regional capital of Diyarbakir. This is an example of how trade, commerce and changing political conditions can create peaceful progress. It is reminiscent of the situation in Spain where the Catalan language was suppressed by the government of Franco till the 1980's, when the formation of the European Union and the changed political climate led to autonomy for Catalonia under a elected federal government....

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Condoleeza Rice, former U.S. Secretary of State, who insisted on meeting opposition leaders in Cairo during the Mubarak regime (in Condoleeza Rice, Washington Post, 2/16/2010, The Future of a Democratic Egypt), reflects on the situation after parliamentary and presidential elections in Russia in March 2012. She says that the growing middle class in Russia seeks respect and participation in how Russia is to be governed. She thinks Russia's dependence on oil and commodities for revenues fosters a climate of corruption and it should move faster in the direction of diversifying its economy. Russian entry in the World Trade Organization, fostering a climate for Russian engineers and scientists to work inside Russia and start new companies, and building U.S. and European business and private ties with Russia's public and private sectors, should be promoted to help the Russian economy diversify. Resetting Russian relations or depending on the U.S. government to come up with solutions appears to be the wrong answer, Rice points out, because resetting is still based on internal politics in Russia. ...

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The 25-30 fishing vessels and tugboats that have supplied Misurata by sea, act as an essential lifeline to the city besieged by Ghadafi. The boats operating under cover of darkness carry both humanitarian supplies and war needs for defence of the city. Libyan volunteers staff these boats, volunteers who believe that the people have finally found their voice against the Arab strongmen who have run countries in their region for decades. The defence of Misurata has another passion for these people, men like Saif Nasser who runs the tugboat Al Iradah 6- and this is to prove to the world that the Libyan people's struggle is not a sectarian struggle which should end with a partition of the country's east from the west. Misrata is a coastal city only 130 miles from Tripoli's coast. If the city is being defended against all odds, it tells the world that this is a popular struggle to build a new democratic Libya with civil rights and civil society, and a voice in their government, similiar to the struggles in Syria, Egypt and Tunisia....

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The Iraqi army takes over the Al Nuri Grand Mosque in Mosul, but what the mosque and the city itself lie in ruins. The minaret is gone in the debris, a shattered city is what is left from the Islamic State takeover of the city in 2014 and the eight month effort in 2017 by the Iraqi army to retake the city.   For more depth see links and groups or search- The problems of Mosul started with the openly sectarian administration of prime minister Nouri Maliki leading to alienation of Sunnis in Mosul. Corruption in the administration and weakness in the Iraqi army combined with alienation of Sunnis to create an opening for a militant group Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. As Iraqi units disintegrated Mosul fell, leading to a worsening of the refugee crisis in Syria and Iraq, increasing the flood of refugees to Europe, and the series of terrorist incidents in Paris, Berlin, London, rise of right wing groups in the European Union, in a chain reaction. The failure of the Obama administration to setup a "no fly zone" in Syria simply compounded the crisis into what it is today. At the root of the crisis - the failed efforts to reconcile Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq, and the sectarian conflicts in the region as a whole stretching from Saudi Arabia and Egypt to Iran.     ...

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Two of three obese people live in developing countries. About 29% of the global population is obese in 2013, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Between 1980 and 2013, obesity increased by 47% for kids and 27% for adults in the global population. Dr Murray of IHME says no country was the exception. Diet and inactivity are the principal culprits. About 37% of world's men and 38% of women are obese. Obesity increased rapidly first in developed countries, becoming noticeable by 1980 and slowing since 2006, and now is growing fast in developing countries. Germany is a surprise No. 8 on the list. The U.S. No. 1 ranking tells a lot about the misguided priorities of living in the U.S., lack of education on healthy eating and healthy living, and not putting healthy habits at the top of things to do above making more money. An extreme case is South Africa where 42% of women are obese. The most obese countries are by rank - U.S., China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Egypt, Germany, Pakistan, Indonesia. Middle Eastern and North African countries have high obesity rates for children. The study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation....

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Ajami makes the point that opinions and attitudes -after the Obama efforts to improve America's standing in the Muslim world - havent changed much since the Bush days. He cites the Pew Global Attitudes Survey for 2009- In Turkey after the Obama Anakra visit favorable rating is only 14%, 69% are unreconciled. In Egypt 27% have favorable view 70% do not, in Pakistan unfavorables actally went up from 63% to 68%. He also points to the situation in Iran where the protester for the fraud in the election of Ahmadinejad did not receive much supprt from Obama, as the Obama administration decided to engage with Ahmadinejad to achieve nuclear settlement. In effect the rhetoric from Obama has not been matched with courage of convicitions , and lacks the courage to turn a new chapter by breaking from the past not just with talk but in real policy changes. And says Ajami the Arabs havve stopped listening to the rhetoric as little has been accomplished by way of change. At the same time false expectations may have been aroused because the Cairo speech was made at the University with the aging Mubarak at Obama's side, and beyond addressing these students the feeling clearly must be that the US would simply continue its policies of supporting old regimes that tolerate no dissent of any kind such as Mubarak's. ...

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The World Health Organization lists the world's most polluted cities with the highest level of PM2.5 particulate matter as 1. Kanpur, India     173 2. Faridabad          172 3.  Varanasi            151 4.  Gaya                  149 5. Patna                   144 6.  Delhi                    143 7.  Lucknow                 138 8.  Agra                        131 9.  Muzzaffarpur           120 10.  Srinagar                113 11.   Gurgaon                113 12.  Jaipur                     105 13.  Patiala                      101 14.  Jodhpur                     98 15.  li Subah ali Salem      94 A look at the cities most polluted shows that most of the cities are in or near New Delhi, (Gurgaon, New Delhi, Faridabad, Agra) in the state of Uttar Pradesh (Lucknow, Kanpur, Varanasi, Agra). The cities on the list that one does not expect are cities such as Jodhpur in the Thar desert, and Srinagar in the mountainous region of Kashmir. Srinagar is on the list because of inadequate sewage facilities to treat sewage. The Dal lake is polluted from houseboats and tourist hotels dumping sewage into the lake and not connecting to the sewage system. Jodhpur is polluted from auto exhaust and vehicular pollution.. The WHO says India's efforts to control pollution need to follow the steps taken by China recently. In response to citizen pressure and outrage about health conditions China has closed down polluting factories, and is shifting away from coal, away from coal stoves. India's efforts are inadequate and scattered says the WHO. This includes stopping fireworks sales that aggravated toxic conditions in Delhi. A program giving 37 million poor Indian women free gas connections helps a shift from use of dung fired clay ovens or coal ovens. Pollution kills 7 million people each year says WHO, and over half or 3.8 million people die from use of unhealthy cooking stoves which create indoor air pollution. Of cities above 14 million Delhi ranks first, Cairo, Egypt second, Mumbai, India fourth and Beijing fifth in air pollution levels.  ...