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Brazil's debt at 57% of GDP which is not likely to decline in 2014, is a concern for analysts at Moody's. Heavy spending and lower tax revenues with high interest rates will increase the deficit to 3.7% in 2014 from 2.48% in 2012, according to central bank estimates. Inflation is about 5.98%. Trade surplus is lower at about $2.6 billion for 2013. Brazil's foreign reserves are much higher than Argentina at $359 billion, ten times short term debt, Argentina at 109% of short term debt and Turkey at 84% of short term debt- which protects Brazil compared to its reserves in the 1997 financial crisis.

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Polls show the New Democratic Party (NDP) surging in the polls in today's Canadian elections. The NDP is drawing voter support from the Liberal Party and from the Bloc Quebecois party in Quebec. The Liberals are now in danger of finishing third behind the NDP in the elections. The Liberals were in power for 32 of the last 50 years, with premier Pierre Trudeau being the most well known figure from the Liberal party. The Bloc Quebecois trails the NDP in Quebec by 16 percentage points in some polls. The NDP program calls for improved health care services, carbon reduction strategies and increased spending for seniors. The NDP proposes to spend 70 billion Canadian dollars for these programs.The party leader Jack Layton could become prime minister in a coalition with the Liberals or join an alliance with the Conservatives led by Steven Harper. In the last parliament NDP held 36 seats. It is now expected to win 100 seats in the 308 seat House. The Conservatives had 143 seats and need 155 to secure a majority, which now appears unlikely....

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India's GST tax collections - which finance infrastructure -reach the 1.40 lakh crore mark  (about $20 billion) for 3 months in a row in 2022. Increase in tax compliance culture, audit analytics, and actions against tax evaders, helped increase GST revenue collections. Revenues from import of goods and revenues from domestic transactions were 44% higher than the same month in the prior year. The increased economic activity and creating tax compliance culture are good indicators for economic growth in addition to the GDP numbers showing about 8% growth in 2021, the highest in the world surpassing China by a wide margin.  The growth slowed to about 4% increase in GDP in the 1st quarter yet the events of the first quarter such as the war in Ukraine increasing food and oil prices, depressing economic activity, have some other indicators unique to India that are entirely positive and hold promise for a surge in economic growth in this decade to 2030. With the pandemic years 2020-2021 pointing to shift in supply chains of US and Germany away from China towards India and other Asian nations, the Russian invasion of Ukraine with support of China will only make this shift move faster. At a time when Indian logistics and infrastructure improvements under the PM's Gati Shakti Master Plan will create the right conditions for massive foreign investment in the Indian economy. ...

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Overall the European parliament elections shows the EPP with CDU in Germany winning over 30 percent of the vote, the SPD 14 percent and the Afd 15 percent, Greens 12 percent. In terms of next EU government the EPP, Socialists and Renew have 59.1% of the vote, and with the Greens included 62.6% of the vote of 360 million EU voters. The European parliament elections show the Renaissance Party that includes Macron En Marche and FDP in Germany losing 23 seats, with some seats going to Conservatives and the ID. Conservatives and Reformists right alliance led by Meloni of Italy including National Rally in France added 4 seats, ID of Denmark adding 9 seats. The Socialists including SPD lost 4 seats and the European People's Party including CDU/CSU led by Leyen won the most seats adding 10 seats. Greens/EFA lost 18 seats as the other parties adopted green energy planks. Leyen says the centrist parties held off challenges from the right and left parties. EPP of CDU's  Leyen has 186 seats, Socialists of SPD's Scholz 135, RE of Macron En Marche and FDP in Germany 79 seats, ECR of Meloni in Italy and National Rally in France 73 seats, ID of Denmark 58 seats, Greens of Germany's Baerbock 53 seats.  ...

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The total government expenditure of the US including the individual states spending is 37% of US GDP (IMF). Musk $2 trillion cuts is 92% of the 2.17 trillion excluding defense, veterans benefits, interest on debt, Social Security, Medicare. The simple math means he plans to shut down the government. US  37.5%  Germany 48% France 57% UK and Canada 43% Japan 42% This shows that the US that has no universal health insurance and  subsidized public transportation, spends less than the developed OECD countries as a percentage of its GDP. Of the Budget of $6.75 trillion in 2024 Social Security $1.46 trillion   22% Medicare            $874 billion   13% Interest on Debt  $880 billion    13% Trump plans to remove tax on Social Security which would take this from 48% to over 50% meaning half of the Budget is off limits. If defense spending goes up not down then $874 and $325 for Veterans benefits are $1.2 trillion also off limits.  This means cuts of $2 trillion on $2.17 trillion or 92%. Do the simple math and this would shut down the government. ...

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The dangers to Turkey from external short term borrowings to finance its current account deficit. Turkey's current account deficit reached 10% of GDP in 2011. It is 8% in 2012 and is considered high by experts. The problem is short term borrowing from overseas which is sent through its banks for increasing levels of personal and housing loans. Were this flow to dry up because of a sharp downturn in the Eurozone economies it would damage Turkey's financial position. Bank short term external debt has doubled in 2011-2012 to $70.3 billion, or 9% of GDP, according to Capital Economics. The U.S. Fed and the ECB have eased global liquidity concerns, but risks are high as long as Turkey relies on short term borrowing. An escalation of the conflict with Syria also poses risks with fears of scaring away investors.

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its forecasts for GDP growth in Russia to 3.1% for 2012 and 3.3% for 2013. Moody's Investors Service warned that the Russian economy could contract 5% in the next 10-12 months and the ruble could depreciate by 30% if the eurozone crisis worsens.

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To gauge economic progress and improvement in living standards, instead of GNP alone look at number of indicators. Look at healthcare and education, cleaner skies and cleaner air, water and land. This is what areport commissioned by President Sarkozy of France, done by Siglitz and Amartya Sen, esentially emphasizes. And be careful when you see more cars and gasoline and more driving drive up GDP numbers and growth because this may actually work in the wrong direction, and have unusual negative effects as the SUV buildup and later collapse led to destroying companies and jobs in Michigan and the midwestern USA.

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Inida' slowdown from 9% to 6.7% growth rate is mainly the result of lower private consumption says the Economis, as the contribution to growth of private consumption dropped by half in 2008. Which is why it sees the handouts to consumers through tax cuts and welfare spending making sense in the short run, even as India's finances are stretched. After a 36% increase in government spending in this budget, the fiscal deficit is estimated to be 12% in 2009, including "off-budget" items. Increasing the efficiency of the fertilizer subsiies by putting it directly in farmer's hands instead of fertilizer makers is a priority, as this takes up 1.5% of GDP.

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German industry says a complete shutoff of Russian gas to Germany would be catastrophic. Paul Krugman, an expert on international economics, looks at it in this NYT report. He says estimates show a worst case scenario drop of 2.1% in GDP for Germany to shutoff Russian supplies of energy. This estimate is from ECONtribute a thinktank from the Universities of Bonn and Cologne. This reluctance says Krugman to take the tough decisions such as turning off Russian energy supplies prolongs the war in Ukraine and its painful consequences in food scarcity and inflation all over Africa, Asia and Latin America. By comparison Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal went through severe downturns as a result of debt crises and economies that were mismanaged, with 27% loss of GDP in Greece, says Krugman.  Merkel's government argued for strict austerity policy during the eurozone financial crisis. By comparison says Krugman the shutoff of Russian energy supplies only imposes 2.1% loss in GDP that the German economy could handle.This estimate is also similar to estimates by Bruegel Institute and International Energy Agency, says Krugman. It would also speed up climate change action in Germany and set an example for Europe. German Economy minister Habeck's plan on alternative sources of renewable energy goes part of the way to accomplish this yet more needs to be done to correct the errors of policies from the Merkel administration that allowed German dependence on Russian energy to reach 55%. It is hard to comprehend why the Merkel administration could not be uneasy with something that would give Russia a huge leverage over the German economy and limit its voice in world affairs. It is now left to chancellor Scholz to correct the errors of the Merkel administration and of past members of his party the SPD, such as Mr. Steinmeier and the Schroeder SPD administration that preceded Merkel. Difficult questions have to be shouldered by the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. It is only through the courage shown by Annalena Baerbock of the Greens Party, in laying bare what these German policies were leading to, that Germany is recovering her voice in the world. In his speech to parliament making a U turn from the old policies Scholz credited Annalena Baerbock for the hard work in convincing Germans of the need for action.  ...

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Greek unemployment is up to 11% and this does not reflect the women who are not registering as unemployed. About 100,000 public sector workers will be let go by 2013 as the austeity plan takes effect. The three year reform programme from the IMF, the European Commission and the ECB tries to cut the budget deficit from 13.6% to 2.7% of GDP in a quick three years even as the econmy is shrinking. The criticism of Germany is relatively less, but there is strong resentment in Greece for the IMF program with 60% of Greeks opposing it. And in Germany Merkel faces voter resentment of having to pay for other EU member countries mistakes in the election in North Rhine-Westphalia, where her CDU and FDP coalition faces a tough challenge. Intenationally Merkel is facing tough criticism for waffling as the euro currency faced a serious threat. The whole European Union plan was being put to the test resulting in the size of the bailout growing from $60 billon to $160 billion in a few weeks, many experts calling it ineptitude....

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The UK's Office of National Statistics said construction output fell by 3.7% in the first quarter of 2012, compared to prior year. Output fell 3%. The revised decline in GDP for the first quarter is 0.3%.

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Key points emerging from Xi's 20th Party Congress for the Chinese Communist Party are shown here in the Indian Express including its attitude to India. The Jiang Zemin and Youth League factions are shown to have lost influence and Xi has his people in the Political Bureau and the Central Military Commission. GDP growth is no longer the priority to be replaced with more balanced development and reducing the wide disparity in wealth that developed in China over 3 decades of hyper growth. State control over  development becomes the preferred model.

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Australia increases its defense budgetfrom 1.8% to 2.2% of GDP, and shows willingness to go up to 3%, as it strengthens its naval capabilities. French submarine contract was cancelled as US shows willingness to provide nuclear submarine technologies to Australia. French diesel submarines were too slow and could not remain underwater for long periods. Nuclear submarines would let Australia monitor Indo-Pacific seas, with US help. This is now an issue as Taiwan is being threatened and Australia faces economic coercion in trade relations from China. US, UK and Australia form a new partnership with president Biden leading the way.

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Britain faces two years of growth at near zero with a no-deal Brexit -even though it could avoid a recession by adding a stimulus package of 44 billion pounds and welfare spending amounting to 2% of GDP. The extra spending would blow the deficit reduction plans.

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The Economst cites an IMF June 2012 paper by Arcand, Berkes and Panizza that shows private borrowing and size of bank balance sheets once it reaches 100% of GDP begins to slow growth. A second paper by Cecchei and Enisse Kharroubi at the Bank for International Settlements confirms this showing that at low levels private borrowing and expansion of bank balance sheets increases economc growth, but at high levels exceeding 100% of GDP a large financial system actually hurts economic growth. Andy Haldane of the Bank of England points out the fact that for the century to 1970 bank assets increased by an average of 0.6% a year faster than GDP in 14 large economies, but increased much faster after this with ratio of assets to GDP increasing by about 3 percentage points a year. Bank assets increased from 50% of GDP in the 1960's to about 200% of GDP by 2007, reaching 500% of GDP in Britain, 800% of GDP in Switzerland, and 126% in the U.S. The increase in world trade accentuated this period with trade increasing from 22% of global GDP to 33% in the period 1996-2008, and banking following this trend across borders to developing countries. At the same time excesses caused an imbalance with hyper growth in bank balance sheets through taking on more leverage and banking risks. The Economist sees this process going back in reverse as bank balance sheets shrink in the face of regulation and efforts for financial stability following the 2008 global financial crisis....

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The French government announced a 26 billion euros or $33 billion package as Stimulus spending. Its going into infrastructure projectsand investents by state owned firms like Electricite de France. It also includes aone-off payment of 200 euros for low-income households. Its valued at 1.3% of GDP. Under this plan, France will dig acanal north of Paris, renovate university buildings, and put new metro cars in service, and also fincnace the construction of 70,000 homes, on top of the 30,000 unfinished homes it is buying in 2009. Motorists who scrap thier old cars to buy new fuel efficient cars in 2009 will get a1000 euros bonus. This is aimed at reducing the stock of unsold cars which is at 1 million cars. And small companies will be exempted from social charges when they hire new employees.

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Brazil faces a debt crisis in 2015-2016. Between 2010 and 2015 foreign debt of local governments and Brazilian firms increased from $100 billion to $250 billion, and dollar debt in local currency from 210 billion reas to 655 billion reas, according to Bank of International Settlements data. State banking institutions BNDES and Caixa Economica Federal financed 35% of loans in 2010, by 2015 this increased to 55%. Subsidized loans at 5.5% by BNDES to firms make Brazilian banking a fiscal operation, requiring additional funding. Petrobras increased debt issuance enormously during this period, and now needs government support as its debt is now one notch above junk status. Interest payments on Brazil's debt is 6% of GDP in 2014. Public sector debt is 66% of GDP, and credit to the private sector is 55% of GDP up from 25% in 2005. It will take Brazil years to recover from a huge borrowing binge.

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For the first time since 1998, Russia, which has relied on large foreign exchange reserves from oil exports, has issued new sovereign debt. Russia issued $2 billion in five year bonds at 3.625% at a risk premium of 1.25% over U.S. Treasurys. And $3.5 billion in 10 year bonds at 5% with a risk premium of 1.35% over comparable Treasurys. In 2010 Russia expects a deficit of 6.8% of GDP.

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Spain's national statistics agency confirmed that the Spanish economy contracted by 0.3% of GDP in the 4th quarter of 2011. The central bank of Spain predicts the economy will contract by 1.5% in 2012 if Spain makes spending cuts to meet the defict target committed by Spain with the EU of 4.4% of GDP. The deficit was 8% of GDP in 2011 and the new Rajoy government announced cuts and tax increases amounting to 1.5% of GDP. A separate IMF report predicts a 1.7% contraction in GDP of Spain in 2012. Opposition party leader Rubalcalba says Spain should renegotiate its deficit target with the EU in the light of the expected contraction. Spain's prime minister Rajoy hinted he would move in this direction.

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The concerns that China was going to overtake the US and become the largest economy is a misconception of how countries have developed through industry and technology. Britain and the other countries of Europe, Germany and France, went through rapid development in the 1930's and 1960's then at some point after saturation were relatively stagnant. China for the first time in 250 years of the Industrial revolution began to develop rapidly and urbanize in the 1990's. China is at that same point of saturation and it's economy moving to relative stagnation with 4% annual growth in 2026-2030 and 2-3% annual growth beyond to 2047. India is taking place of China as parts of India (large states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra with population 500 million) can achieve 15-22% annual growth in 2026-2030. A quick idea of this can be seen here in the WSJ. China as a percentage of the global economy was 18.5% in 2021 and has since declined to 16.5% of the global economy in 2025. China was three fourth of the US economy when it peaked in 2021 and has since declined in 2025 to two thirds of the size of the US economy. As a percentage of the global economy China will go down to 12% over the next 5 years as India advances, and the population of US, Canada, Australia with their continental spaces continues to grow and with it GDP growth. This is validated from the Japanese experience of peaking at becoming 18% of the world economy by 1996 and then dropping by 2006 to about 11%, 2016 to 6% and 2025 to 4%. The combined effect is to reduce the size of China's economy as a percentage of the overall global economy at a point of time in the future 2030, 2040, 2050. Japan is a good example. There are other factors in play including technology and capital access as technology and capital shifts to other parts of the world where it can be better deployed and conditions are suited for rapid development as in India/Indonesia and in the US/Canada/Australia regions of 1.6 billion people and 450 million people from China (saturation overbuilding), the Middle East (wars and mismanagement). ...

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The Bank of England under Governor Carney cut interest rates 0.25% from a low of 0.5%, and suggested further cuts were on the way. This follows Brexit and action by the central bank to avoid a recession. The British pound fell about 1.6% to $1.3112 against the dollar, and euro 1.770 against the euro. Government borrowing costs declined, and the 10 year bonds yield dropped to 0.639%. Economic growth in Britian for the second half 2016 will be little or none. The GDP growth forecast for 2017 is now 0.8%, down from 2.3% before the Brexit vote. Bank of England staff say their calculations show Brexit vote has "conservatively" reduced growth by 2.5 percentage points over 3 years even after the rate cuts and stimulus action of the Bank of England, which other estimates show could add 0.5% over 2 years. This brings the Brexit impact to about 3% loss in GDP over 3 years, with these reliable estimates. Months after the Brexit vote the question remains whether Brexit supporters misled British voters, leaving the Bank of England to come up with a way to prevent a recession. After the austerity cuts since 2009 and the prospect of some improvement in the economy, this is a step backwards at a time when some of the working and middle class find themselves left behind. ...

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India's statistics ministry estimates growth in GDP for the year ending March 31, 2013, at 5%. Finance minister Chidambaram says the actual figures are likely to be higher because of growth picking up in the last half of the year. This is a decline from the 6.2% in the prior year, and the 9% growth in previous years.

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The Center for Economics and Business Research in London estimates GDP growth for the UK of 0.4% in 2012. According to Britain's Office of National Statistics the UK economy contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the third quarter.

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S. Korea's household debt is now 155% of GDP, according to the OECD. For the last ten years the household debt is growing at 13 percent, double the rate of GDP growth. Korea was not affected to the same extent as other countries by the 2008 financial crisis. As a result household debt continues to grow rapidly. The household debt to disposable income reached 140% in the U.S. before the 2008 financial crisis, according to the IMF. Spain reached a level of 130% before the crisis, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. The Financial Services Commission in S. Korea has taken steps to control this- by imposing limits on bank lending, tighter credit checks by banks, and incentives for shifting to fixed rate mortgages. About 95% of mortgages in S. Korea are adjustable rate mortgages. Housing loan rules in S. Korea require loans to not exceed half of the value of the house, and annual payments of principal and interest cannot exceed 40% of the owners income. This effectively insulates the banks from the effects of a housing bubble. One of the effect of the 1997 financial crisis in S. Korea when it turned to the IMF for assistance, is the relaxing of controls on interest rates to encourage spending in a country that encouraged saving. The result is the growth of a nonbank sector which is not subject to central government regulation by the Financial Supervisory Service. The non-banks are regulated only by local governments and can charge upto 39% compared to 4-6% at banks. Non-banks are also allowed to turn in their licenses and operate charging even higher rates. Each year about a 1000 nonbanks from 18,500 such banks in 2007 are joining the black market according to the Consumer Loan Finance Association, showing the size of the problem of black market lending to low income borrowers. S. Korea has mostly relied on growing GDP to control the situation, but slowing growth could lead to unsustainable levels of household debt....