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Narendra Modi is now the choice of the BJP party in India to lead it against the ruling Congress party of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. The corruption in government and the slowing growth have improved the chances of Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat state in northwestern India, near Mumbai. Modi has done well in Gujarat state in a number of areas- from foreign investment in manufacturing, infrastructure development, and better governance. His plan is to replicate this at the national level. His slogan is minimum government and maximum governance.

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Joseph Stiglitz describes policies and programs of the Obama administration that favor banks and avoid a government takeover of over leveraged and badly managed banks in the U.S. President Obama's policy transfers financial assets to banks on highly favorable terms even though some of the banks made bad decisions and highly overleveraged assets creating the 2008 global financial crisis. The policies avoid a government takeover of banks, policies which the U.S. aggressively pushed for in other countries such as S. Korea during the 1997 financial crisis with Rubin, Summers and Geithner at Treasury. These policies would come under strong criticism because it rewarded risk taking and kept in place an incentive system that led to such behaviours- creating "heads I win, tails you lose" psychology. It also delinks the performance-reward relationship that is the basis of free enterprise in western economies. A problem that would be left from the crisis and the Obama administration's response to it is "Too-Big-To-Fail," with banks larger than before. The FDIC and U.S. Fed's plans for banks to have living wills for an orderly windup under Dodd-Frank legislation only goes a part of the way in tackling this problem. In the U.S., and in Britain, France, Germany, Switzerland, the related problem of high bonuses continues into 2014, with RBS bank in Britain one of the egregious examples and highly unpopular with the British public. The lack of similiar government help to homeowners, advocated by Reagan economic advisor Martin Feldstein and FDIC chairwoman Sheila Bair from the beginnings of the crisis stands in sharp contrast to the response of the Obama administration. See the links for Barr, Feldstein and Hoenig. In an ultimate irony from the crisis handling much of the damage from foreclosures was done to minorities which supported the administration. ...

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The relationship from college years at Amherst College in the U.S. of Greek political leaders Antonis Samaras and George Papandreou. The efforts to setup a national unity government that failed. The increasing support for the opposition New Democracy Party led by Samaras- with 16% unemployment- and the prospect of new elections. Samaras supports spending cuts. He also favors tax cuts, and a flat tax rate of 15% on business. Greece has a long history of tax evasion and distrust of central authority going back to centuries of Turkish rule. Samaras believes that the lower tax rate of 15% would help change the Greek cultural trait of evading taxes becaue it would be on the honor of people to pay such a basic tax. EU leaders are skeptical that lower taxes are the right policy to reduce the deficit. This adds to the political uncertainty as the new government would have to implement the measures agreed to between the current Greek government and the EU leaders. A similiar situation existed in Portugal but the recent elections there, participation of the opposition party in talks, and the newly elected government conducting its own negotiations, has removed that element of uncertainty which exists in Greece. ...

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Krauthammer tells U.S. presidential candidates stop saying that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme, because by its very definition it is a Ponzi scheme. Instead exercize common sense and take the simple steps to update Social Security for today's longer life expectancy, aging population and way fewer workers to support a retired person. In a Ponzi scheme payments by people joining currently are paid to those who joined earlier, with not enough to pay future entrants- which is what is happening to Social Security. In 1940, after Roosevelt signed Social Security into law, there were 160 workers for each retired person. That dropped to 16.5 in 1950, today there are 3 workers. In 1940 the life expectancy was 62, today it is closer to 80. Krauthammer says the writing is on the wall- simply have the courage to make the changes by raising the retirement age, means testing the rich for benefits, and adjust the cost of living measure.

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Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Michael Oren, describes Iran's efforts to make weapons grade nuclear material, escalating the enrichment process from 3.5% to 20%. He says Iran now has 225 pounds of 20% uranium and 11,000 pounds of 3.5%, enough for 5 nuclear bombs, and points out that 20% uranium can be enhanced to weapons grade in weeks. During the initial negotiations the P5+1 nations demanded suspension of enrichment acitivites at a time when the enrichment process was at 3.5%, and transfer of stockpiles abroad. As negotiations dragged on Iran escalated to 20% enrichment. current demands of the P5+1 are for cessation of 20% enrichment and removal of the 20% stockpile, and closing the facility at Qom, as a first step. This has been rejected by Iran. In this op-ed Oren says Israel alerted the world about the Iranian nuclear program 20 years ago, and as this has continued to what it is today, Israel's view is that much of that time was wasted and the window for international efforts to cease and dismantle Iran's nuclear program is almost shut. ...

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This WSJ editorial points out a big concern in the third quarter 2012 economic growth figures- the figure showing non-housing related investment contracting by 1.3%. It says the U.S. borrowed $5 trillion and all it got in return was 1.7% economic growth- 1.7% being the growth in U.S. GDP for the first 9 months of 2012. It also points out that the growth came from consumer spending and the Federal Reserve's money printing. The consumer spending would be hard pressed to continue if incomes remain stagnant without the capital investment and hiring from the private sector. Government spending accounts for 0.7% of the GDP growth, and estimates for private sector growth in output is about 1.3%.

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Former finance minister, Rodrigo Rato, resigns as executive chairman of Spain's Bankia bank. Spain's Bankia bank is believed to be one of the banks mentioned by the IMF that will need government help to address 32 billion euros in bad loans. Bankia bank is the result of consolidation in 2010 of seven of Spain's Cajas savings banks in a government led restructuring. Bankia is expected to get 7-10 billion euros from the government in the form of convertible bonds. The government gave $4.5 billion to Bankia to absorb some of the losses in 2010. Bankia made an IPO offering in 2011 in 3.3 billion euro listing. Since then the shares have lost one third of the value. Experts are uncertain about the extent to which this will restore confidence.

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Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, ratified the fiscal pact agreement of eurozone countries of December 2011 on June 29, 2012. A two thirds majority was needed to approve the pact and the rescue fund called the European Financial Stability Facility or European Stability Mechanism. To get the opposition Social Democrats support chancellor Merkel had to agree to a "growth pact" at the June 2012 EU summit, a condition made by the opposition. Facing persistent German opposition in the negotiations for short term measures to allow the rescue fund to buy Spanish and Italian bonds directly in private markets and give direct aid to Spanish and Italian banks, prime minister Monti of Italy and prime minister Rajoy of Spain as a last resort told chancellor Merkel they would block the EU growth measures. It is at that point that Merkel made the concessions to allow direct aid by the rescue fund. Blocking the growth measures would have blocked the approval of the fiscal pact which Merkel had negotiated in December 2011, as the opposition Social Democrats would then withdraw their support. It is this manouevre that finally achieved a breakthrough in the marathon 14 hour negotations between Mario Monti and Angela Merkel, which Monti described as "hard and tense" but "worth it." ...

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India's inflation rate declined to 4.4% in Nov. 2014 and 5% in Dec. 2014. Price pressures are moderating throughout the economy. With lower oil prices in 2015 and long term trend for lower prices the outlook has improved for controlling inflation. The central bank governor Rajan cut rates by one quarter of a percentage point in Jan. 2015 and indicated further rate cuts are ahead to boost economic growth. The financial markets reflect a 1% decline in interest rates and the stock markets were up 2% in Jan. 2015

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Gen. Keane and Pletka say action by the U.S. is needed in 2013 to render ineffective the airdefense system and runways used by warplanes of the Assad regime. They emphasize that the U.S. has the technology and capacity to do this even with the Russian systems added in Syria. The lack of a U.S. response in the face of the Assad regime's attacks on civilian populations and use of chemical weapons, the support to the U.S. from the Arab world and Turkey, and the huge refugee problems in Jordan and Turkey, say Keane and Pletka, will lead to creating a worse situation than the relatively small risks of destroying the runways for Assad's warplanes and the airdefense system.

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The faltering approach on Syria of the Obama administration and the events that lead to the decision on June 13, 2013, to provide arms to the opposition forces.

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The effort by Prince Bandar, a senior advisor to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, to send arms to Syrian rebels through a command center in Jordan, after differences with Turkey and Qatar on how to arm rebels. WSJ reporters Entous, Malas and Coker provide a detailed account of the Saudi effort under Prince Bandar. The Saudis are determined to bring down the Assad regime especially now that chemical weapons are involved.

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The civilian labor force participation rate for people over 60 years of age reached 29.4% in the U.S. in 2012, up from a little over 22% in 2002, according to the Labor Department. This reflects the slow growth in retirement savings with low interest rates and the economic shocks from the global financial crisis of 2008 to savings. A Conference Board report shows about two thirds of people between 45 and 60 years age are planning to delay retirement, up from 42% two years earlier.

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Prof. Gorton and Prof. Metrick of the Yale School of Management review 16 scholarly studies and papers on the causes of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis in the current isue of the Journal of Economic Literature. Another article in the same journal reviews 21 books on the subject. Samuelson says the most cited causes- lax regulation and passive regulators, and the policy of home ownership that encourage the packaging and of securitization of mortgages to government sponsored agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac- are only the surface causes. If we are to explain how a whole society seemed to believe in the idea that somehow there was a way to maintain a rising tide continuously, with only small corrections over several decades, by the clever manipulation of monetary and fiscal policies; then one has to look to the hubris of economists who acted as if this was possible and the gullibility of business and a public that desperately wanted to believe as some have put it "that this time it was different," or that shrewd management of economic policy could actually bring about such a panacea. The abiding lesson is economic policies based on a better understanding of how modern industrial economies work are merely useful tools, no more no less, and there is no substitute for a good ethic, wise management and careful thinking on the part of the public, business and government, particularly for the people in leadership positions. ...

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John Taylor on the dangers of a loose U.S. monetary policy and the effects this had in fueling a housing bubble in Spain, Ireland and other EU countries. Taylor points to the bubble ocurring in emerging market economies from low interest rates. Taylor says the ECB's interest rate moves in 2003-2005 were affected by the Fed's low interest rates. He estimates the ECB set rates about two percentage points too low leading to housing bubbles in EU countries. A similiar process is taking place today with the Fed's near zero interest rate policy. Taylor points to interest rates in a group of 18 emerging market economies- including Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Turkey, which have held interest rates on average about 5 percentage points below widely used benchmarks fueling a doubling of global commodity prices between 2009-2011. The U.S. Fed's policies make it harder for central banks in emerging market economies to take aggresssive action against bubbles developing in these countries. Taylor says his does not mean that the Fed should not pay attention to the U.S. unemployment rate and long term unemployed, but should keep in mind the negative effects of slowing demand in emerging market economies and in the EU as a result of its monetary policy of keeping rates at near zero for long periods of time. This feeds back to the U.S. economy at a critical time....

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Spain's central bank was lauded for macroprudential supervision before the housing bubble burst. Will China's central bank and financial authorites which have managed the housing bubble upto this point face similiar problems? Can China be the sole exception even as housing bubbles burst with wide repercussions in the U.S., UK and Spain? Nicholas Lardy, of the Peterson Institute of international Economics, says urban housing stock makes up 41% of Chinese household wealth in 2011. The same figure for the U.S. is 26%. Chinese buyers invest in homes because low interest rates on savings accounts cannot keep up with inflation. Real estate investment was 13% of GDP in 2011. Home ownership is a recent development in China, only since 1990, Chinese have never experienced large price declines. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income has increased significantly in recent years, up to 53.6% in 2011 from 31.3% in 2008, according to Lardy.