LyrArc Article Gist
Important year end reveiw of the oil price forecasting work of so many anlaysts and where they failed . The IEA and the US Enery Dpt forecast have year after year underestimated this pirce by over 20%. Analysts change the price forecasts within a couple of weeks based on changing information and assumptions. Of all this the Saudi Arabian forecasts have ben within 12 % of what has actually ocurred according to a study by Ronald Berger Strategy Consultants of Muich, Germany. And whats their forecast for 2008. By extrapolating from the Saudi budget and the assumptions, used such as giving a wide margin to avoid a deficit in the budget if oil prices undershot by a wide margin, one gets $75 for US benchmark crude. Forecast by experts are in the neighborhood of $80 average for the whole year 2008. Goldman recently revised theirs upwards from $85 average for 2008 to $95 within a 4 week period. How good is the Goldman forecast. No one really knows. Lehman has a forecast of $84 average for 2008 and bases it on the opacity of the market because no one knows what OPEC will do with supply and China does not provide good information on demand. So basically anlysts are adding an uncertainty premium to the price of oil. And this is especially so because as the Chief Economist at IEA says global space capacity is so thin and any event can influence price. Last year the rhetoric about Irans nuclear intentions was enough to stir up the price, as were other smaller events disrupting supplies. But the Iranian situation has since cooled down and diplomatic solutions are in the works. So what to expect in 2008 in the way of political uncertainty. Iraq, Iran, Palestine, Lebanon have all seen a cool off in the ast couple of years and the Bush administration rhetoric has become outmoded as has other rhetoric from Iran so that does'nt look like it will stir up oil prices in 2008. Still there will be some uncertainty premium about supply from OPEC and demand from China and India. And demand from the Middle Eastern oil producing countries themselves as well as the increasing demand in India and China will mean that lower demand in the US because of a recession will still mean an increase in global demand over 2007 of 1.5 million barrrels a day over 2007's 85 million barrels a day. What will change the dynamics of this situation is the government mandated fuel economy for all vehicles on the road with Europe more aggressive in this area under the pressures of global warming. If this impacts India, China and Russia as these fuel saving technologies are transferrred there overall consumption should see an impact. Europe's targets are only 4 years away for 2012. And the environment may cause China to bring in newer technologies that both contribute to improving environment and conserving energy. Because China's environmental record is almost catastrophic one could see some of this happen much sooner than expected after the Olympics in 2008. All that might change the way the world looks at oil and its use, and all energy sources and their use. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Jaguar Land Rover has strong sales in 2013 of 425,006 vehicles. JLR is investing 1 billion pounds to build a factory in China, in a joint venture with Cherry Automobile Company. The factory will make 130,000 automobiles a year when it starts in late 2014. In Brazil JLR is investing 240 million pounds for a factory that will make 95,000 vehicles a year. JLR currently has assembly facilities in India for the Freelander 2 sport-utility vehicle and Jaguar XF sedan, and assembly facilities in Pakistan, Kenya, Malaysia, Turkey. JLR plans to spend 3.5-3.75 billion pounds in the fiscal year beginning April 1, an increase from the 2.75 billion pounds capital spending budget for 2013. 2013 capital spending was 17% of total revenue of 15.78 billion pounds. Dealers are expected to spend an additional 1 billion pounds on improving the sales network.

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ's Amol Sharma and Paul Beckett interview Chandrasekharan of Tata Consultancy Services. TCS underwent a reorganization to be customer centric and to listen closely to customers. It sees opportunities in financial services as banks berge, in retail and in pharmaceuticals for knowledge intensive work such as analysis of clincial trial data. His vision is to expand development centers around the world, to meet the global tech needs of customers. He also wants to develop a complete suite of services so it can sell end to end offerings, covering software application outsourcing to infrastructure management to consulting and products. He says he can't serve aBrazilian company or a Chinese sompany from India, there are language, cost and culture issues. TCS plans are to pick a strategic location and then scale it up, with some like Mexico scaling faster than China.

LyrArc Article Gist
Telengana Liberation Day is celebrated in Hyderabad, Telengana, on September 17, 2022. From 1911 to 1948 the Nizam of Hyderabad ruled the territory in the state and parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra under the colonial system set up by the British of princely states. That colonial system of princely states comprised as much as one third of British India. By obtaining the loyalty of the princes of states throughout British India, Britain made it possible to sustain British rule.

LyrArc Article Gist
US Universities awakening to the need to reduce costs after making college unaffordable to middle class. NIH says indirect costs are in the range of 60-70% at some elite universities, the proposal would cap this at 15% for all universities for federal funding. The purpose is to reduce administrative costs that are increasing and have universities take a hard look at finances not just increase salaries, hire more and increase prices for students to go to college. The savings generated could be $6.5 billion in this one action alone and some universities need to cut salaries and hire less to bring down their cost structure before a whole generation of young men are deprived of opportunities to go to college. Not everyone can be sent to apprenticeships and not all research needs to be funded. China and India and some European nations will be funding the same research with less. There is a Deepseek moment now not just for AI - for all research.

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ editorial summarizes the main reasons Republicans and many others object to increase in U.S. contributions as the IMF increases its resources under a new plan. The reforms increase the influence of Brazil, China, India, Turkey and other countries in the IMF governance. Also at issue is European influence that the U.S. sees allowing risky loans to countries such as Greece, where rules were relaxed under EU influence during the eurozone crisis. This topic of IMF reform will be coming up in the G 7 meeting of central bankers and finance ministers in Dec 2014 at Sydney, Australia, with the new U.S. IMF representative defending U.S. interests. The case for the reforms was presented in WSJ by Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, and is part of the link.

LyrArc Article Gist
The focus is shifting from the oil majors to the companies in the oil field services sector, companies that supply the oil companies with oil field services. Deepwater oil field drilling rigs some of the most modern computer controlled ones run $650 million are in great demand and one Norwegian supplier of drilling rigs has anticipated the demand for advanced deepwater drilling rigs which the major oil companies had not invested in and is now in a position to charge $600,000 a day for the advanced rigs he has ordered 3 years ago as the deepwater drilling took off in places like offshore Angola. Earlier this Norwegian had anticipated the shift to long haul shipping of oil to places like India and China from Iran and offshore Africa.

LyrArc Article Gist
About 14 million people are in poverty or slipping below the poverty line according to Paritatische Wohlfahrtsverband, umbrella organization for welfare organizations. German per capita wealth is about 52,000 euros but there is growing inequality in wealth and incomes.  A household with 2 parents and 2 children is at the poverty line at 2410 euros a month or about 29000 euros a year. Social safety net under Hartz IV does little to help because it is set at 449 euros a month with 285 to 376 euros for each child. This is expected to go up to 503 euros a month per person in 2023. Even though experts say at least 650 euros are needed per month to live  with dignity. Under this system only 5 euros per day is set by Hartz IV for food, says DW.com, which is shocking. It means food of lesser quality or less food goes to the less well off. About 2 million people use food banks. Prices are up 12% in 2022 for basics such as bread, vegetables, milk and cheese. One study shows old age poverty is likely to affect 20% of Germans by 2036. The situation is bad for elderly, students and women. Women have worked part time reducing their income.  A student with federal funding gets 934 euros a month which is well below the poverty line. A new program for 200 billion euros is planned by German government to protect against inflation for households. Minimum wage is 12 euros per hour so that someone who works 40 hours a week makes 1480 per month in net income. After inflation this is close to the poverty line. Such is the situation for Germans today even after decades of growth and being seen as an export powerhouse. Compare this to the situation in India where the food program of the Modi administration continues to support food supplies that are adequate for feeding a family right through the pandemic for 800 million people and one sees that the idea of what is a rich or poor country is turned on its head. It is simply the will of the culture of a people and a country and its leadership that makes its limited or larger national wealth available to all its citizens, for the basics to fulfill the idea that "all men are created equal and they are endowed by their Creator with some inalienable rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness," enshrined in the minds of Asia borrowed from America. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
India's currency, the rupee, ges a makeover, as the Indian government chooses a design symbol for the Rupee. It will be some variation of the letter R, similiar to the way Japan uses the Y for Yen with double bars across it, or how the Europeans chose the epsilon Greek character for the Euro symbol.

LyrArc Article Gist
GM shares dropped by 31% October 8, 2008 to a postwar low. And Jeff Schuster head of auto forecasting at JD Power says the global market in 2009 may experience an outright collapse. The slowdown will extend to Europe, China, india and Brazil. Previously JD Power estimated sales at 14 million for 2009 now it thinks it will be more like 13.2 million in 2009 and this may come up for revision as the economic downturn deepens with higher unemployment, loss in savings, and collapsing consumption. With access to financing drying up, and sales collapsing GM is rnning low on funds to run day to day operations and is expected to be acutely short by the end of 2009. Ford faces a similar situation. One forecast by Citigroup global markets in the link in Detroit News October 9 points to only abot $1 billion remaining by the end of 2009 and even with asset sales generating some $5 billion being thin ice for GM.

LyrArc Article Gist
The decline in the U.S. television advertising market accelerates in 2015. Viacom Inc. (Nickeodeon and MTV) sees a decline in TV domestic advertising revenue of 9% for the 2nd quarter of 2015, as its TV ratings decline. CBS Corp and Disney (ESPN) see a 3% decline. 21st century Fox with FOX network and shows such as "American Idol" and "The Following," sees a large decline in its television ad revenue of 14%. In the week of August 4-6, 2015, the share prices of these media companies were hit hard. Viacom shares declined by 21%, Fox 13%, Disney 11%. Earlier gains for digital ad revenue were from print, now the gains are at the expense of television budgets. Companies such as Allstate, Mondelez, Wendy's, MasterCard, Honda, P&G, are shifting to digital from television to follow millenials. Experts at ad buying firms say advertisers are tracking young consumers and following them to digital platforms. Viacom's Nickelodeon and MTV are hit particularly hard by the growing shift to kids shows on Netflix and to You Tube, and Amazon Prime Instant Video. Linear TV and interruptions for advertising is also accelerating the move, when other ad free or less advertising options are now easily available. By 2018 the digital ad spending will overtake television ad spending, digital getting $83 billion and television dropping to $78.6 billion....

LyrArc Article Gist
It is a sign of hope in Europe that the period known as the "Troubles" is over. Emma Little-Pengelly of the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland has dropped the boycott of the Assembly. She is assuming the post of second minister.  Little Pengelly says that we are shaped by the past but we are not defined by it. The party with most seats in the Assembly gained by looking out for people of both communities for housing and other basic needs is Sinn Fein's Michelle O'Neill. This is a new form of what PM Modi has called "Nari Shakti" or women's outlook and strength in Britain bringing peace and development to the island of Ireland. The Indian parliament was recently opened by a woman president Ms. Murmu and the Budget presented the next day by Ms. Sitharaman. Michelle O'Neill says we are not asking to move on, we are asking only to move forward. Such are the changes happening on opposite ends of the former British Empire as Modi moves forward with "sab ka vikas sab ke sath," development for all by all, and in Ireland with release of $4 billion by the Sunak UK government northern Ireland can move forward with meeting people's needs. Both Catholic and Protestant communities are asked to work with each other under the Good Friday Agreement and power is shared for helping people of both communities get better housing, education and other needs for themselves and their children. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Tushar Morzaria, CFO at Barclays is leading the effort for restructuring of Barclays and its large investmetn banking business. He was hired from JP Morgan Chase, where he was made the finance chief for the investment bank in 2010. Morzaria is the son of Indian immigrants to Britain who left Uganda during the Idi Amin dictatorship. Colleagues at Chase say he has a broader outlook and is able to look beyond the numbers.

LyrArc Article Gist
This obituary for FW De Klerk looks back at the dismantling of race based rule of Apartheid in South Africa in 1992, the release of Nelson Mandela, and elections in 1994 through universal franchise. This was done by the son of a schoolteacher in the Transvaal region who rose to the top through the provincial leadership. De Klerk took the actions to bring racial harmony after growing up as an Afrikkaner and working in the local politics of the National Party that introduced Apartheid rule. Before 1989 reforms in the Botha government left black people on 13% of the worst land in the country, tribal homelands in which they did not even live in, in a distorted form of representation. Limited representation was given to Indian ethnic minorities and colored people.  All this changed between 1992 and 1994 after De Klerk assumed leadership of the National Party and the government in 1989. This required great courage and statesmanship, and vision from De Klerk to set the foundations for a multiracial society that even Margaret Thatcher and Reagan failed to grasp and promote. De Klerk died in 2020. For Mandela the path was clear, for De Klerk the path had to be forged out of nothing and against the natural instincts of his own party. This saved south Africa to become a true multi racial society with respect for the rule of law and democracy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's energy efficient industry is a role model for the western world and for India and China. For years Japan has had a national consensus on consuming less energy an industry has focused on developing energy efficent technologies and investing in it even when oil prices were low. Japan wants to now contribute to the world in this area at the G8 summit on the island of Hokkaido. According to the International Energy Agency in Paris, Japan consumes half as much energy per dollar worth of economic activity as the European Union or the United States, and one-eighth as much as India or China in 2005. According to the Japanese Economic Ministry data corporate Japan has kept its energy consumption annually at a billion barrels of oil since the early 1970's even as the country's economy doubled in size during the 1970's and 1980's. The Japanese steel industry invested $45 billion dollars between 1972 to 2006 in developing energy saving technologies, according to the Japan Iron and Steel Federation. By capturing heat and gases that go into waste JFE Steel at its Keihin mill on Tokyo Bay uses it to power generators that produce 90% of the plant's electricity. The Japanese government is now pushing an initiative that sets Japan's level of energy conservation as targets of global industries. For instance the group leader of JFE's climate change policy group says that by adopting Japanese conservation technologies the global steel industry could reduce carbon emissions by 300 million tons a year. The sector approach advocated by Japan means setting the same numerical goals for all companies in an industry, regardless of location. At next week's summit meeting Japan willl back an initiative that sets its conservation induced energy levels as the new standards for global industries. This will also promote the sale and use of Japanese energy saving technologies around the world....

LyrArc Article Gist
Final stage negotiations for India and USA nuclear pact for transfer of nuclear peacetime technologies to India to help it meet its energy needs.

LyrArc Article Gist
As part of his plans to revive Sony, CEO Hirai plans to increase sales in emerging markets by 44% in 3 years. Sony is the leading brand for television, audio equipment, and notebook computers in India. Hirai plans to increase operating margins to 5%, and increase revenues by 33%, by March 2015. The outgoing CEO, Mr. Stringer reached 5.4% operating margin in the fiscal year ending March 2008, but things changed after the global financial crisis and the problems in 2011 with the tsunami and earthquake in Japan and floods in Thailand. Sony also plans to start a new medical business with medical diagnostic products, and endoscope type products that use its advanced image sensors. Sony plans to focus on mobile devices, digital cameras, and videogames for further investment.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lt. Gen Trainor and Michael Gordon describe the situation during the last months of U.S. presence in Iraq. President Obama is ambivalent about the size of the military presence he would like to leave, settling for 3000 troops and a few F-16's from a inital figure of 10,000. Obama sees the presidential election approaching and sets an objective of keeping it minimal. The military cooperation treaty with Iraq has to be approved by a Iraqi parliament with different factions in parliament not likely to approve it. Prime Minister Malliki decides not to move ahead. In the end no military cooperation treaty is signed after 8 years of war and a date is set for a complete withdrawal. Iraqi airspace is used by Iran to ship supplies to Syria's Assad regime, and the U.S. has less leverage in the region as the Arab world goes through a transition to popular government and elections. The Obama administration shifts most of its attention to Afghanistan where the U.S. has no vital stake in the long run compared to the Middle East region, with its large population, growing economies, move towards democracy and meeting the aspirations of hundreds of millions of young people. One Middle Eastern leader says the U.S. had no long term policy under the Obama administration for Iraq, and this applies also to the rest of the Middle East region, and mostly reacted to events as they happened. The Obama administration's committment to the war in Afghanistan, just as it focussed on winding down the war in Iraq, responded to the American public's waning support for the war in Iraq. It did not reduce the total cost of the conflicts because of the initial escalation of the war in Afghanistan and later slow progress towards a negoiated settlement to that conflict. A negotiated settlement is the best the U.S. could achieve, and the best desired objective considering the limited interests in Afghanistan. In Afghanistan most of the dynamics would be determined in the long run by the situation in Pakistan, and India-Pakistan relations, which the U.S. could influence constructively only through dialogue, promoting cooperation between the two countries, and economic relations....