LyrArc Article Gist
The main lines of the Message to Congress by the US president in 2025 related to flood of illegal immigration, and illegal fentanyl flows with deaths of Americans in the most vulnerable neighborhoods across 51 states over 12 years, 490,000 deaths, more than Vietnam. "The media and our friends in the Democrat Party kept saying we needed new legislation to secure the border—but it turned out that all we really needed was a new president.” As it turns out the legislation Biden with Republicans led by Senator Lankford negotiated in Feb 2024 did not have the strong action taken in the first 100 days to deter illegal immigration and remove illegal immigrants endangering safety in American neighborhoods. That legislation did not have provisions to bring illegal fentanyl flows into the US to an end with strong action including tariffs on CMC countries Canada, Mexico and China responsible for the fentanyl flows into the US. Transgender was another issue addressed in the speech with DJT clearly stating that their only two genders and against mutilation of bodies, with trust in God about the gender God placed us in as best for us. Other issues were about tariffs action going into effect on reciprocal tariffs on April 2 with all nations including India, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea. DJT cited India for high tariffs, South Korea with 4 times American tariffs, and European nations. The goal was to ensure a level playing field for the US to compete- "what they charge us, we charge them." As explained in an earlier article in the WSJ reciprocal tariffs in the world context mean commodities products would not have price increases for the US consumer, smartphones autos would increase but this would be temporary as these nations play fairly and create a level playing field, and these products manufacturing is shifted to the US. This would mean growth for US auto industry and smartphones coming from inside the US and from India offsetting concentration of production in China. Apple has told the president it will start making inside America investing hundreds of billions in the US from now on. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
What a change DJT's first 100 Days and actions on immigration and tariffs , Ukraine and Russia, have made in China's and World relations in Asia, and in Europe - all for the better, significantly better relations worldwide.  China has worked out a peace settlement in Ladakh frontier with India. It has come together in Tokyo with Japanese prime minister Ishiba and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi holding hands, and South Korea joining, all three nations vowing to remember history and work together. In Europe Russia is being brought back into the community of nations for big power cooperation with the US after 3 years of war in Ukraine. And Germany has removed its constitutional brake on spending that frees up $1 trillion in funding for infrastructure to replace much of its rail and other infrastructure built in 1900. One would not know this reading the NYT on democracy or the WSJ on tariffs or the Washington Post on assault on federal workforce, or the Atlantic, Politico, DW.com or FR24, Der Spiegel, nor Le Monde, much of the world media slanted on way or another. One does not hear about military exercises so often as the world realizes that so called large economies China, Germany, Japan and India all depend on American goodwill and willingness to give rather than take for most of the post war period since 1950. For the last 6 years in the latter half of the Trump administration and the 4 years of the Biden administration during the pandemic relations between China and the US deteriorated and China first retreated into its own then opened up a bit. The initial idea that it could manage the DJT trade actions evaporated as Biden continued the DJT first round of tariffs. Now Navarro, Lighhizer, and his deputy Jamieson are all back advising DJT for anew round of reciprocal tariffs and tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China for not stopping fentanyl flows.  In 2022 in eastern Ladakh China's PLA had a big standoff with Indian forces in eastern Ladakh at Galwan and Pangong Lake. The Quad was active with Australia India and the US in Indo Pacific and China conducted military exercises close to Taiwan.      ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Bank of England under Governor Carney cut interest rates 0.25% from a low of 0.5%, and suggested further cuts were on the way. This follows Brexit and action by the central bank to avoid a recession. The British pound fell about 1.6% to $1.3112 against the dollar, and euro 1.770 against the euro. Government borrowing costs declined, and the 10 year bonds yield dropped to 0.639%. Economic growth in Britian for the second half 2016 will be little or none. The GDP growth forecast for 2017 is now 0.8%, down from 2.3% before the Brexit vote. Bank of England staff say their calculations show Brexit vote has "conservatively" reduced growth by 2.5 percentage points over 3 years even after the rate cuts and stimulus action of the Bank of England, which other estimates show could add 0.5% over 2 years. This brings the Brexit impact to about 3% loss in GDP over 3 years, with these reliable estimates. Months after the Brexit vote the question remains whether Brexit supporters misled British voters, leaving the Bank of England to come up with a way to prevent a recession. After the austerity cuts since 2009 and the prospect of some improvement in the economy, this is a step backwards at a time when some of the working and middle class find themselves left behind. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Alexander Kudascheff of DW.com, says the Berlin Christmas market attack on the Kurfstendamm, is likely to change the way Germany looks at the terrorist threats in the world. Smaller attacks had hit Germany earlier in 2016. This one resembling the attack in Nice on Bastille Day is likely to touch a nerve with Germans who did not see something like this possible for a Christmas tradition of Christmas markets in Germany, and right in Berlin's centre.  This means stormy waters for chancellor Merkel's refugee policies. The comments to this opinion in the DW.com show the public dissatisfaction with current policy. Many of the comments focus on too open an approach of liberal media, what is perceived as a spin on stories for refugees, and on the use of words "suspected terrrorist attack" even when it had become clear to most people that it was a terrorist incident. In other ways this incident is different as it puts Germans in the same situation as Americans, Spaniards, Turks, French, and other people in the way terrorism has made people less safe or unsafe in 2015-2016. Most of this is a result of the situation in Syria and Iraq, as is the refugee situation that has divided European opinion, and American opinion.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Obama administration's $38.6 billon loan program using Stimulus funds was intended to create 65,000 jobs. Two years into this program, with half the money disbursed, the program has created a mere 3,545 new permanent jobs according to Energy Department figures. The Energy Department claims its $5.9 billion loan guarantees to Ford Motor Company to produce energy efficient vehicles by upgrading plants in 5 states saved 33,000 jobs. Brookings Institution analyst, Mark Muro, says the administration appears to be counting all the workers at these plants and not the jobs saved. 33,000 is close to half the Ford hourly and salaried U.S. employees. Harvard Business School professor, Josh Lerner, says there is a tendency to do a lot of fuzzy math in these figures. Muro points to the need to set large expectations for short term political calculations. The Energy Department's own figures show 20 "green tech"companies won loans so far under this project by negotiating with the Energy Department. If these companies hire the people they agreed to they would hire 8,050 new permanent workers. Only 10 of these companies have created or saved jobs so far. Of the other 10 some won loan approval only recently. The whole process is time consuming. Even if the Energy Department were to create the 60,000 jobs under the revised estimate, each job saved or created would come at a cost of 640,000 dollars in loan guarantees. Using the figure of $19.3 billion disbursed 2 years into this program (half of the $38.6 billion) and 8,050 jobs created, would give a cost of $2.4 million in loan guarantees for each job created- an astoundingly high figure. Other factors to consider are the additional jobs created downstream by suppliers to these companies as the administration states, and the cost of loans if as in the case of Solyndra a company goes bankrupt. Solyndra received a loan of over $500 million and represents 3% of loan guarantees. The administration and Congress assumed a failure rate of 5-10% for this program. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Stress test performed by the consulting firms of Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger used data as of Dec 31, 2011, and a scenario of a 6.5% decline in GDP and a 26.4% fall in housing prices by 2014. An international panel of experts from the Bank of Spain, the Spanish government, the ECB, the IMF, the European Banking Authority and the EC was formed to oversee the consultancies report. A separate more detailed audit of 14 individual banks will be made by Deloitte Touche, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, Ernst & Young, and KPMG International with results by the end of July. The four banks that need capital injections are Bankia, CatalunyaCaixa, NovaCaixaGalicia and Banco de Valencia. The consultancies estimate was for 51-62 billion euros needed according to Oliver Wyman, and 51.8 billion euros needed according to Roland Berger, for recapitalization of Spanish banks by 2014. The issue now is about any remaining questions about additional losses, and whether rescue funds from the EU fund the EFSF should go directly to the banks as favored by the IMF and the government of Spain. This is because of the stress on yields of Spain's 10 year bonds with rescue money going to the Spanish government at the insistence of German chancellor Merkel....

LyrArc Article Gist
Artists from Hong Kong, Taiwan and mainland China give different interpretations of the period from the Opium Wars in 1842 to the rise of Communist China at an exhibition of art in Hong Kong, March 23- May 10, 2015.

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ committed to orthodox economic theory thinks of tariffs as tariffs such as Smoot Hawley from the 30's. This is why it is not true- It is about fentanyl flows that have led to 490,000 deaths over 12 years in the US and few in the US like to talk about it. Smoot Hawley had nothing to do with fentanyl, drugs trafficking and migrant trafficking that every nation not only has a right but a No.1 responsibility to its citizens to keep its neighborhoods and its children in neighborhoods safe. Smoot and Hawley were US Senators and US Congress was isolationist in mood. Their grasp of the world trading system was meager and they stepped in at a time when the world had economically not recovered from World War I, and the French against US General Pershing's advice had set the most punitive arrangement in Germany that crushed Germany after an armistice Pershing opposed that left the Kaiser's political structures intact. Tariffs is not DJT's idea. It is the solid experience of Deputy US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer under Reagan who conducted negotiations with the Japanese who stalled and stalled Lighthizer says, let negotiations drag on into endless nights, and Lighthizer and his team stood firm. The relentless Japanese relented and Lighthizer secured the agreements that ended this phase of trade relations in the 1980's. Lighthizer was Trade Representative in the DJT first term 2016-2020 and launched the negotiations with China. This is now 8 years since 2016 and 2016 itself was 35 years after Lighthizer negotiated with the Japanese. Today's US Trade Representative is Jamieson who was Deputy Trade Representative under Lighthizer in 2016. Each detail is carefully thought through to bring it to a fair conclusion in the interests of the world and the US. Information traveled slowly GM could not tell at any time how many cars were in inventory on its lots in 1920's. US lacked basic infrastructure for government that FDR and Labor Secretary added firt in New York in the 1930's and which was transferred to 50 states by 1940's. Today information is quickly at fingertips and consultation processes are built in between industry and government at all levels. A lot of information is carefully evaluated. USTR as DJT showed, the major study of USTR Office in the Rose Garden on April 2, 2025, has all trade barriers carefully analyzed in minute details for every country. And is working on this for 40 years. There isn't even a slightest  comparison between this and the Smoot Hawley crowd in the 1920's.  The goal not to beat anybody. Just to set the goal of a level playing field for world trade. That is the foundation of trade that is fair and respected, and is a win-win for all. WTO's basic foundation No. 1 principle is a level playing field. It is just that this was a kind of Marshall Plan for Asia of the US to let poor countries such as Japan war wrecked in 1950, and China colonial power wrecked by first Britain then Japan struggling and poor in 1990's, giving them some time to rebuild by ignoring unfair barriers to trade for 10-15 years 2005 for China. Barriers that never got dismantled and technology that leaked from the US 2005-2016 under the Obama administration. Smoot Hawley was not about the US Navy building its own ships and US shipyards in the 1920's. In 2025 US shipbuilding industry is stolen, this is why the words used "pillaged" "looted" were used in the Rose Garden. Little by little American private enterprise capitalism was superseded by a new form of capitalism in Japan then in China that combined state capitalism with private enterprise capitalism. This then was the threat America faced, and needed to redouble its energies and seek fair play.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Italy's South is its poorest region, with scarce job opportunities. It has not recovered fully from the economic crisis of 2009. The Five Star movement in the current centre right governing coalition has many of its voters in the south of Italy. The government is fighting to save a Arcelor steel plant in the coastal city of Taranto. The state is working to prevent other factories from closing. The Italian north industrialized early being closer to France and Germany, the southern region remained agricultural with immigration as a way out of poverty. The government supported jobs in the south and industrial development after 1945, and expanded public sector jobs. Regional progress in the south stalled since 2000. Today per capita gross domestic product in the north is 35,000 euros compared to 19,000 euros in the south of Italy, according to Eurostat. Unemployment in some southern towns is 20%, compared to less than 10% average in the north. The answer says prime minister Giuseppe Conte, is to "have a sort of bank of the South for investments." The opposition party far right Northern League led by Matteo Salvini is popular and is also pushing for supporting southern regions with extra funding. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This story by Asa Fitch of the WSJ shows how NVIDIA co-founder Jensen Huang, built NVIDIA into a major semiconductor company. He did this by developing faster chips for graphics and other uses using parallel processing instead of sequential processing. It is now a rival to Intel as it plans an acquisition of ARM Holdings in Britain. Huang started NVIDIA in 1993 when computer users wanted faster computer graphics.  NVIDIA has about $10 billion in sales compared to larger rival Ital with $72 billion in sales. With its efforts in AI and other tech fields NVIDIA now surpasses Intel in valuation. Softbank bought ARM Holdings in 2016 for $32 billion. It is now looking to sell ARM to NVIDIA or another buyer. Problems it faces in the acquisition is British laws that may decide to prevent approval for sale of the company and the loss of jobs. ARM based in Cambridge has 6700 employees. ARM makes the chips for smartphones. The trade war between the U.S. and China and the sale of ARM chips to Huawei are also factors that will be considered in British approval or disapproval of this sale of a British company owned by Softbank of Japan.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the Times says there are divisions in 10 Downing Street, between Mark Sedwill, the top civil servant, and the prime minister, Boris Johnson on implementation of a coronavirus plan, Mr. Sunak the finance minister and Mr. Johnson on reopening of the economy and the spending plans. There are also frustrations among Tory MP's, women, and ministers, who are left out of the centralized decision making where only a few people around Mr. Johnson- Gove, Hancock, Sedwill, Sunak, Cummings - know what is going on.  Mr. Johnson has not rested well says the Times and Mr. Sedwill also had the virus it is reported. Mr. Hancock is not trusted by Tory MP's to execute the plan correctly for testing, tracing and isolation of clusters, crucial to controlling the pandemic and restoring confidence in the economy. Mr. Johnson also face the prospect of an inquiry into nursing homes- he responded to Keir Starmer of the Labor party in parliament that he"bitterly regrets" what happened there. More money is being poured to control this. There is a sentiment of acceptance that Brexit talks are going nowhere and Britain simply walks out with no deal.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany has 60.4 million people who can vote in the upcoming September 26 parliamentary elections. Of this more than half are over age 50 years. This is part of a demographic change in Germany with falling population, more deaths than births in the country. As a result German voting population is getting older and smaller, 1.3 million smaller this time than in the last election. In 1987 23% of voters were under age 30 years, in 2021 this is down to 15%. For older voters in 1987 26% of voters were over age 60 years, in 2021 this is up to 38%. Older voters also have higher turnout of about 81% compared to voters age 21 to 24 years at 67% turnout. Older voters had a strong party affiliation early in their life says one polling expert for Infratest. Older voters tend to vote mostly for SPD or CDU the two main parties. The far right and far left parties have support in East Germany's 12.5 million population out of 82.5 million in Germany. CDU gets its vote from workers with higher than median income, and SPD from voters at the median income. Greens are supported by higher income groups.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Since the last landing of a man on the moon in 1972, not much has happened. China recently made 3 lunar landings and Israel failed in its recent Beersheba module effort. India is trying a second time with Chandrayan 2 to make the soft landing in the last critical 15 minutes on the lunar surface without any problems.    The Indian space program has the potential to build up the global research and knowledge about our planet.  Factors unique to India's space program are its development of its own rockets, similar to China's. The multipurpose satellite system services a number of users- telecommunications, TV broadcasting, meteorology, disaster warning, land and water management, ocean studies, drought and flood forecasting. The fleet of satellites IRS (Indian Remote Sensing Satllite Systems) will be used for teleducation, telemedicine, and other new uses. The NAViC navigation Constellation System acts as India's own GPS reducing the need to rely on U.S. based GPS. Other aspects of India' space program are the effort to explore new planets with the Mars Orbiter Mission MARS , with a module reaching Martian orbit in 2014. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This podcast in the WSJ by Sarah Randazzo shows how 15 months of the Theranos trial have revealed ways in which Silicon Valley startups raise cash. It shows the culture of creating hype and so called buzz behind startups that was lauded in business culture but has led to massive capital misallocation away from essential needs of society for infrastructure, health services, and education, investing in new technologies at home and fighting climate change. Many such situations are recorded in the pages of the WSJ, of hype and huge losses for investors in the last decade when some of the most egregious behaviour happened. Along with this was the acceptance in the business culture of shipping jobs and technology overseas, then shipping products halfway across the globe what could be easily be made in the home country- leading to a loss of control over the future and with it a loss of hope. The WSJ says the trial was a referendum on how Silicon Valley startups raise cash, with the jury finding Holmes guilty on 4 counts. The pandemic has led to rethinking and going back to basics, discarding all the unessentials or self-harm behaviours.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
EU leaders, the ECB and the European Financial Stability Facility, in negotiations for a "selective default" for Greece. The ECB is persuaded to accept a selective default, with one option being to protect ECB from losses by the EFSF buying 50 billion euros of Greek bonds at cost price. Another concern of ECB about contagion is being addressed through a statment that this is designed only for Greece because "of its exceptional situation." A draft document under discussion by EU leaders has a plan for cutting the interest rates on Greece's bailout loans from 5.5% to 3.5% and doubling the repayment period to 15 years. EU officials see giving Ireland and Portugal the same interest rates on their bailout loans. The high interest rates and the shorter maturities made earlier plans unworkable. Private investors are encoraged but not required to exchange their old Greek bonds for new bonds with maturities of upto 30 years. Also being discussed is a buyback of Greek bonds at a heavy discount to face value at which they are trading. EFSF will also get new powers to make bailout loans on a precautionary basis. EFSF would also have powers to lend to eurozoe governments to help recapitalize banks and buy back bonds from other countries....

LyrArc Article Gist
Victor Allis, CEO of software company Quintiq, in the Netherlands, describes his approach to managing in this exceptional interview with Adam Bryant of the NYT. He delves into personality when hiring, looking for aspects that show the person will take responsibility whatever hand he is given, and in the process be willing to tackle adversity. Respect for all people, no matter what their situation and work, is part of the culture he acquired from his dad, a plant manager at Fokker Aircraft. This extends to giving out 15% of profit to all employees, equally distributed so that the CEO receives the same as the receptionist. A math expert at a young age, Allis went into consulting and then starting a software company, instead of becoming a math professor. He has a 5 minute rule where he tells employees to look for help in the company, when they cannot figure out the solution to a problem after 5 minutes of thinking- the suggestions from outside could help or others can act as a sounding board. In selecting people for projects he looks for motivation as much or more than skills. Simple but powerful thoughts and practice expressed with astonishing clarity, coming from the Netherlands....

LyrArc Article Gist
Hyperinflation of 1 million percent annualized rate for Venezuela. This is the revised estimate from the IMF for 2019, after first estimating it at 13000 percent. Is this even possible for an oil rich country? It shows what can happen with severe economic mismanagement. It is happening as the economy is damaged by failed socialist policies, corruption and a collapsing oil industry. The successor to Hugo Chavez after he died in 2013 has failed to tackle the situation with the government having a hard time paying for the paper to print bolivares, the currency. Electronic money is paid into accounts, A petro currency was created backed by oil supplies, but nothing has worked. As an example dishwasher soap cost 3.8 million bolivares a week ago, today it is 4.9 million. Some families are down to small bits of soap, and cut out proteins from the diet, says this report. For one of the richest countries in Latin America this hyperinflation is an extreme form of impoverishment, say experts. The worst case experts say is that of Hungary after World War II when prices doubled every 15 hours. Zimbabwe and Serbia also recorded severe hyperinflation in recent memory. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
After years of austerity policies from the Conservative Party, Britain is looking at new ideas to reorganize the economy and society. The 40% of the British vote taken by the Labour Party has given new impetus to think tanks looking at ways to reshape the British economy and society in coming decades. At issue are the effects of austerity in increasing poverty, rising inequality, and fewer protections for working class people.  The new think tanks include Common Wealth which aims at making changes to British business to provide more representation for labour and provide share of ownership to workers in an enterprise. Common Wealth came up with the ideas and policy for the Labour Party's plan to give 10% of ownership equity in large companies to worker owned funds. Mr McDonnell, chief economic policy maker of the Labour Party, has suggested a trial of a universal basic income, which has led to policy ideas and economic framework development from think tanks. A key idea is to frame how these new ideas can be implemented under a future Labour government, now that there is public disillusionment with the Tories under Theresa May.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Wall Street Journal's editorial columns have followed closely the working of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over the years. Especially during the last decade, when most of the excesses, missteps and failures in the operations of the two companies occurred at huge cost to the US economy and to taxpayers. The Journal quotes from the recent Treasury report on the planned winding down of the two agencies. And focusses attention on the question of what will replace Fannie and Freddie. Only the first of three options looks viable considering the goals of reducing misallocation of national resources, and winding down the federal government's role in housing, says the Journal. With this Option the federal government guarantees are limited to Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans to low income buyers and VA assistance for veterans and farm programs- narrow segments that limits the guarantee strictly to 10-15% of the mortgage market. The Journal says that the conclusions of the Treasury report are what WSJ has been saying for 20 years: " The strength of this option is that it would minimize distortions in capital allocation across sectors, reduce moral hazard in mortgage lending and drastically reduce direct taxpayer exposure to private lender's losses." And the points about the benefits: " With less incentive to invest in housing, more capital will flow into other areas of the economy, potentially leading to more long-run economic growth and reducing the inflationary pressure on housing assets. Risk throughout the system may also be reduced, as private actors will not be as inclined to take on excessive risk without the assurance of a government guarantee behind them. And finally, direct taxpayer risk exposure to private losses in the mortgage market would be limited to the loans guaranteed by FHA and other narrowly targeted government loan programs: no longer would taxpayers be at direct risk for guarantees covering most of the nation's mortgages." This bit of wisdom is especially significant, as misallocation of capital that went on in housing for the better part of the last decade has hurt America and the American people. It makes sense to have explicit money allocated by Congress for housing help to the poor and have no housing guarantees that have hurt the economy....

LyrArc Article Gist
With $3.5 trillion dollars of commercial real estate debt outstanding, amid collapsing real estate prices, there is concern that this will hamper economic recovery. About $700 billion of commercial real estate mortgaes were packaged into securities and sold to pension funds, college endowments, foundations and other investors. This means the pain will be felt across the country, even in this small Ozark town of Springfield, Missouri, where the police and firefighters union has invested its entire 11% real estate allocation of $12 million in PRISA, a real estate fund of Prudential Insurance. Prudential in the boom years like 2005, was making as much as 25% return and large fees, and it marketed these products across the country. Even in a loss year of 2008 this generated $89 million in fees for PRISA. It decided to build 11 Times Square with a developer, 1.1 million square foot skyscraper in New York city, and the piece of that in the form of a security was marketed in this small Ozark town at a meeting between a Prudential representative and the towns pension fund board members, 1 policeman, 3 firemen and 2 city officials. The pension fund valued before the financial crisis at $131 million is now valued at $91 million, with 10% tied up in PRISA. A request for redemption of $5 million was rejected. The irony is that the pension fund was trying to boost returns to 7.5% from 5% on the advice of actuaries, to better fund the retiree obligations. The developer of the skyscraper Pozycki only comitted $15 million, or 4% of the equity, in exchange for developer's fees, having been burnt by earlier deals in the 1990's. As the building is nearing completion in 2009, not a single tenant has signed up. A loss of 50% is expected by 2009, because of so much vacant office space in New York city. Prudential will continue to collect its fees. And in Springfield the the losses will lead to budget cuts, reducing how often park lawns are mowed, and roads maintained, eliminating the summer concert series, multi-family housing inspections, and aservice to trap skunks and feral cats....

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany will give 16 state authorites 2.5 billion euros to support a6 euro monthly rail pass that can take you to anywhere in Germany for a month. About 7 million tickets have already been sold. Deutsche Bahn is operating at 80% of capacity at this time. Inflation is up 7.9% in Germany last month and this is a result of the war in Ukraine.

In other aid the German government has given-

Cutting the fuel tax by 30 cents a litre for gasoline to keep prices below 2 euros.

Those in work will get a one time 300 euros energy rebate for energy costs in autumn.

A 100 euros child benefit bonus per child.

People on other welfare benefits will also receive 100 euros.