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Deutsche Bank posted a fourth quarter 2012 loss of 2.2 billion euros. It set aside 1 billion euros to cover the cost of legal settlements including an investigation of LIBOR rate manipulation. Deutsche Bank says it has raised its Tier 1 capital ratio to 8 percent from less than 6% a year earlier. Analysts are uncertain whether this is from changes the way the bank calculates risk and whether the bank has seriously reduced its high leverage.

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Municipal yields are back up. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities says states in the USA will have to close budget gaps of $140 billion in fiscal year 2012, ending in June, down from $160 billion this year. But real shortfalls will increase because federal stimulus funds that helped state and local governments will fall from $59 billion this year to $6 billion next year. Local governments depend on states for one third of their revenue, according to a Congressional Budget Office report, which makes them vulnerable. Property taxes account for a quarter of local government revenue and this too will be declining with declining assessed values. The Federal Reserve Act limits open-market purchases of munis to ones with maturities of less than 6 months, which reduces the scope for help from the Fed.

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US inflation in May was up 1% over April 2022, and 8.6% above a year earlier. Of the 1% increase in May over April about half was from increase in prices of appliances and furniture and consumer items bought from stores such as Walmart and Target. The trend is shifting quickly as buyers are shifting purchases out of this category and spending more on travel and eating out, entertainment. Retailers such as Target are stuck with excess inventory and plan to discount items. This will result in an easing of inflation.

Shortage of semiconductors for cars are persisting but should ease at some time. Service cost continue to increase. Overall there should be an easing of inflation but not enough for the Fed to change its policy of interest rate increases.

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Japan's military budget will become the third largest after the US and China and take on offensive capabilities, under the new plan of prime minister Kishida. More than half of Japanese now support Japan taking on this role in defense against China and to ensure an open Indo-Pacific. The military buildup calls for $320 billion in spending over 5 years to deter China, and includes missile deployment. The national security paper released in Dec 2023 says- "The strategic challenge posed by China is the biggest Japan has ever faced." To do this Japan's foreign and defense ministers met with their counterparts in the US this week, ahead of a meeting in the US between Kishida and US president Biden. 

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EU measure that seeks to curb imports of coffee, cocoa, soy, beef, palm oil and wood when it is determined that it drives deforestation in the source country. To qualify as "deforestation-free" the land on which these food and other products were grown cannot have been deforested or degraded since Dec. 31, 2020. Demand from European Union countries for commodities such as beef and cocoa are strong drivers of deforestation, says Frans Timmermans, vice president of the EU. This comes after COP26 Glasgow conference where over 100 countries signed an agreement to end deforestation. The EU commissioner for the environment says "we can't ask for ambitious policies on the environment from partner countries on the one hand and support deforestation on the other."

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Giorgia Meloni's effort to revive the right wing vote in Italy after disillusionment with Mr. Berlusconi is shown in this report in the New York Post.  She was Mr. Berlusconi's Minister for Youth from 2008 to 2011. This report says she has advocated for Italy and as a mother and a Catholic, but that is nothing new in Europe with most nations looking for their national interest first. On Ukraine and the European Union there is no ambiguity as Meloni supports the European Union. When Mr. Draghi formed a national unity government during the covid health crisis and the breakdown of a previous coalition Berlusconi joined the government, but Meloni stayed in the Opposition leading to her rapid rise.  

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Unemployment rate in urban areas of India decrease for the fourth consecutive quarter to 7.6% in the April to June quarter of 2022. It is now lower than the pre-pandemic level.  Employment growth continued in July and August, as shown in the Global Purchasing Managers Indices for the Manufacturing and Services sectors. The Finance Ministry say what is at work are the reflection of "increasing effectiveness of income support and targeted subsidies provided by the government, creation of jobs from elevated levels of public sector capital expenditures, and general rise in employment levels."  Added to this are the foreign direct investment flows being the fifth largest among a "defined set of developed and developing economies," and the increase in exports.

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King Charles of Britain is a strong supporter of action against climate change from a young age. Here NYT comments on the odd situation of the Queen's Speech in 2023 in which the King announces the legislative priorities of the government in a speech to parliament. In this case he announced the expansion of oil drilling in the North Sea under the Tory government of Rishi Sunak. Mr Starmer leader of the Labor Party says the Tories under Sunak are doing this because -"they see our country's problems as something to be exploited, not solved." Trailing Labour badly the Conservatives and Sunak are trying to win support by weakening environmental measures by delaying a ban on gasoline cars and lowering targets for replacing gas boilers.

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What an amazing recovery Rishabh Pant has made after his Mercedes SUV crashed on the Delhi-Roorkee expressway, hitting a divider and went into flames. It was in January 2023 that surgery was done on Pant. After rehab work at the National Cricket Academy, water aerobic work and training, he is back to play Test cricket as wicketkeeper for the Indian side at Headingley and now at Edgbaston. He scored a century at Headingley.

Here he talks about his near death experience and his first question will he be able to play again, his mother's was will he be able to walk again. Dr Pardiwala, his orthopedic surgeon, was uncertain if Pant could ever play again. It shows miracles happen.

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Argentina's economy minister, Axel Kicillof, and the nationalization of YPF, compensation to Repsol and international creditors. Kicillof lectured on Economics at the University of Buenos Aires. As deputy minister in 2012 he was responsible for the natonalization of oil company YPF, controlled by Repsol. Kicillof was critical of the sale of YPF to Repsol in 1999. In a recent interview he wa critical of "disinformation" campaigns in social media and the psychological effect of media information in creating economic situations such as a run on a national currency. The peso has declined sharply in January 2014. Critics say Kicilloff created some of the problems with international creditors that he is now working to correct and attract foreign investment.

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About 565,000 workers are missing in the UK workforce in December 2022. The Guardian asks the question- Will they ever come back? Many left under stress from healthcare work, from the hotel and restaurant business, and from manufacturing during the pandemic. Some took early retirement, some taking care of family members. A similar situation exists in the US. Jay Powell at the US Federal Reserve, its central bank, and Fed Governors including the head of the Federal Reserve for California are working on ways to get these people back. Brian Deese of Biden's National Economic Council is also working to find solutions including better child care and better benefits for workers. Settling the rail strike on terms attractive for workers and getting rid of onerous rules for workers who could not get paid heath care leave in rail companies, are ways the Biden administration is responding.

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Now that the trigger mechanism in the August 2, 2011 Debt Ceiling and Deficit bill is in place- with the trigger calling for 50% of the cuts of $1.2 billion to come from defense spending- thoughts are turning to how and what to trim, and what the overarching framework should be. Former Assistant Secretary of Defense, Joseph Nye, says there is a right way to trim Defense spending. The winding down of the two Bush wars could be used to cut ground forces to 1990 levels, trim the purchases of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, make better use of drones and less costly technologies, and cutting health care costs in defense. This would not affect U.S. national security. What is needed now is also a framework of what the U.S. wants to see happen in its role in the world. Here Nye reminds readers that President Eisenhower decided not to get involved in Vietnam on the side of the French in 1954, saying it was more important to strengthen the U.S. economy. Its important to remember that this decision came only a couple of years after the end of the Korean War. The idea being the U.S. could not police different countries or engage without considering the big picture. In today's context this also means not engaging in nation-building in remote places and in environments that make it not worthwhile to engage precious resources. The U.S. says Nye should consider itself more in Reagan's terms of "a beacon on the hill." Another factor he alludes to is that 70% of the world's military expenditures are now made by the U.S. and its allies. This means there is great potential for burden sharing. Just as the U.K and France essentially combined their resources for achieving overall defense goals of the two countries to accomplish the same things that they did before, the U.S. can do much in combination with its allies. This helps frame policy and solutions for defense. Pearlstein offers policy and solutions for the economy, and Krauthammer offers policy and solutions for deficit reduction in the Washington Post, August 5, 2011, giving an overall picture of what the U.S. and Europe should strive for in coming years....

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All sides had to make concessions to reach a new agreement on a restructuring of Greece's debt, and new terms for loans to Ireland and Portugal. The agreement was reached after negotiations between France, Germany, the ECB, and eurozone countries with a declaration issued on July 21, 2011. The powers and financing of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) were expanded to be the main mechanism for channeling EU funding to reduce the burden of Greece's debt. Germany will provide new funding and be open to additional commitments, something German chancellor Angela Merkel had resisted since the beginning of the crisis in 2010. Earlier funding had come with high interest rates and only when the situation had reached a crisis, with Germany insisting on the punitive rates and conditions as a way to discourage countries from taking advantage of cheap borrowing. In exchange for commitment of German funds Ms Merkel had insisted that banks and private creditors share in the losses. Private bondholders resisted but finally agreed to take a loss of 20% of principal on a small portion of the bonds. Their larger concession was to take lower interest rates and extend the maturities to 15 years and 30 years on new bonds which are guaranteed by the EU. The specific terms of the agreement are as follows: The EFSF and the IMF will lend Greece 109 billion euros over 3 years at 3.5%. Private creditors including German and French banks will "voluntarily" turn in their old bonds for new ones that mature over 15-30 year periods. These new bonds include 15 and 30 year Greek bonds with varying coupons. Some of the bonds would have a 20% discount on principal. EU leaders say the private sector contribution amounts to 37 billion euros through 2014 and 106 billion euros through 2019. Another part of the program is for the EFSF to buy back some of the Greek bonds on the secondary markets, which would mean Greece would now owe a smaller amount to the EFSF on these bonds. The EFSF will now have additional financial support from Germany and other EU countries and be authorized to provide aid to countries before a crisis situation arises. It would also have power to buy Greek bonds at prices on secondary markets to reduce the Greek debt burden. Ireland and Portugal are also assisted in the agreement. The interest rate for EU aid to Ireland and Portugal is taken down to 3.5%. Ireland is paying about 6% on the EU portion of its 67.5 billon euros bailout and efforts to reduce the rate were resisted earlier. The main theme behind these concessions and provisions is to give Greece, (and Ireland and Portugal) a chance to grow. High interest rates came under strong criticism because it only increased the size of the debt burden of these countries with a shrinking economy and high unemployment. The failure to come together behind a broad and sensible agreement with all parties making serious concessions, the EU, the ECB and the political leadership in these countries especially Greece, was undermining confidence in the euro and the eurozone itself. By mid-July Italy and Spain were feeling the effects of contagion in the financial markets, U.S. debt ceiling negotiations were unsettling global financial markets, the pressure was intense to come up with the workable agreement achieved on July 21, 2011. ...

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Spain's central bank says the Cajas savings banks have 217 billion euros in exposure to real estate and construction companies. Of this 100 billon euros is "potentially problematic." The Cajas have provisions for 38% of this. The government approved rules for minimum capital requirements. The capital ratios are set at 8% for all banks and higher for the Cajas. It said all banks will need to raise 20 billion euros by a September deadline. Barclays estimates this at 46 billion euros, twice the government estimate. The government will extend the deadline on a case by case basis, so that banks have until December 2011 to close sales of stakes to private investors.The government will then take stakes in the banks by September through the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring or FROB. After a 3 billon euro bond issuance in January 2011, the FROB has 4.5 billion euros on hand and a 3 billion euro credit line.

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The Indian government's chief economic advisor, Kaushik Basu, says the opening up of India's retail sector would have benefitted everyone including middle traders. This would happen because the retail sector would go through a vast expansion creating room for more players even though the per unit margin from products would go down. Experts say the infusion of new technologies and investment in India's supply chain and cold storage setup would help reduce food prices and inflation. Basu made the comments at the launching of the New Oxford Companion to Economics in India in Feb 2012. Basu is co-editor and it has contributions from Ratan Tata, Pranab Mukherjee, and Nandan Nilekhani.

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In all the coverage on the Indian election the impossible having been accomplished that of going beyond the 244 million voters in the US, beyond the 373 million voters in the European Union. The eligible voters in India 2024 are 640 million and all the counting done on one day was accomplished by the Electoral Commission and tackled under leadership of the team by Rajiv Kumar, a civil servant who earlier served as the Finance Secretary of India. The results show that the elections were free and fair as the results speak for themselves that the opposition parties did better than they expected. What was not told in media coverage in the US and EU/UK was that the Opposition and the current government are at odds on one fundamental issue that a continental country suffering from centuries of colonialism can only create a modern nation with the infrastructure enjoyed by the US, EU, China, if it creates a large enough pool of investment in the trillions of dollars, has a master plan of proven execution, with no leakages from this pool of investment. Leakages from the pool of investment only stopped after 2014, and actions of direct deposits to 400 million bank accounts or rural households was essential. For modernization to succeed another condition that had to be fulfilled was to create even through a pandemic a core of about 500 million of 1.4 billion people of the middle and lower classes who would approach the conditions o the US, EU, China consumer base for industry. This the Modi government has done with all its projects and hard work by adding the 250 million people to the consumer base pulled out of poverty. The task ahead is doing what the US, EU, China as continental nations have done to modernize and industrialize 2024-2035 to build the third largest economy ahead of the EU by 2035 and every state and city in India aspires to this transformation, from the south and northeast to the north and the west.   ...

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As tensions increase with Japan Xi turns to the US and has discussion on Ukraine and Taiwan with US president DJT. Xi looks for ways to build a better understanding with the US on a unification of China with Taiwan.  Chinese president Xi calls DJT November 23, 2025. In the background the US 28 Point Peace Plan for Ukraine is being discussed with Ukraine and the EU.

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Referring to the nine mile wide area from Israel's Mediterranean coast north of Tel Aviv to the West Bank at the shortest point, Israeli prime minister Netanyahu says of pre-1967 borders- "these were not the boundaries of peace, these were the boundaries of repeated wars." Netanyahu is reported to have made an angry phone call on May 19, 2011, to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton after hearing of President Obama's call for a peace with a return to the pre-1967 borders. Netanyahu told Obama Israel considered such borders indefensible and not the basis of a lasting peace.

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China GDP growth forecast at 5% in 2025 and first half actuals at 5.3% with frontloading. The frontloading is because of surge in exporting before tariffs hit by May.  China is waiting to put fiscal stimulus as it fears tariffs will lower growth and increase unemployment. The housing sector is in deep slump. At this point fiscal stimulus is determined in Washington DC. The actual growth in 2025 may turn out to be much lower than 5% considering the weakness in the economy and the issues of tariffs and tough trade negotiations with the US and a changed environment for trade with the European Union.

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Turkey's elections for parliament and for president are on May 14, 2023. President Erdogan is running again after two decades in power. Turkey faces high inflation of over 57% which has created a serious cost of living crisis in Turkey. Erdogan has issued a wide range of stimulus measures- energy subsidies, a doubling of the minimum wage, pension increases, and a chance for 2 million retirees to retire immediately. A kilogram of tomatoes used to cost 8-10 liras and now costs 25 liras. Rents are going up with steep increases. Turkey has been hit hard by the war in Ukraine as it depends on Ukraine for grain supplies. A popular mayor of Istabul Ekrem Imamoglu from the Opposition is shown here as an alternative for president. Erdogan started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul with the military opposing him. His management of the economy helped him win two terms as president, which is now in a severe crisis.

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WSJ on Intel CEO Lip Bu-Tan and ties to Chinese chip making since 2001 and as an investor through investment firm Walden. Senator Tom Cotton, chair of Intelligence Committee in Senate, questions ties of the new Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan to China. DJT calls for a new CEO, saying there is no other solution that Tan should resign immediately. Under the Biden Administration and the previous CEO Pat Gelsinger the US government offered $8 billion in aid to Intel to maintain it's leadership in chip making technologies. Gelsinger was ousted by the Board last year after Intel's recovery effort was taking time and replaced with Lip-Bu Tan who was an early investor in Chinese chip makers. There are questions why the acting CEO Yeary is cited in WSJ reports to have considered offering Intel's chip making manufacturing for sale to TSMC to exit manufacturing, after the help Intel had gained of $8 billion from Biden to become the dominant maker of advanced chips in the US- recovering a position lost to TSMC when the US had invented the computer chip. Under DJT that is still the American goal under MAGA.   ...

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Two months of lockdown will cost France 120 billion euros. 

France's Budget Minister says debt will reach 9% of gross economic output in 2020.

Throughout the financial crisis in the eurozone France was restricted to keep the deficit under 3 percent and public debt at 60% of GDP -with some flexibility but with warnings- under the Stability and Growth Pact of 1997 fiscal rules underpinning the European Monetary Union. Today the debt is at 115% of GDP up from 100% before the crisis. 

Now the deficit will be three times the 3% envisaged by SGP.

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India and China agree to a legally binding deal on climate change and emissions that would be drafted by 2015, and take effect in 2020. This would bring them in line with or symmetrical with the U.S. and European countries for controlling emissions.

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The US housing market in 2022 with sharp increase in cash out refinancing and home equity financing. Total home equity increased 20% in the first quarter to $27.8 trillion, a record high, according to the Federal Reserve, the US central bank. About 60% of equity was withdrawn through cash out refinancing in 2021, according to mortgage data. Cash out refinancing simply adds the amount borrowed to the existing mortgage balance. The amount borrowed through such financing by homeowners adds to inflationary pressures with more cash borrowed on the house for home improvement projects, gardening projects, appliance spending and automobile purchases. The increase in the interest rates by the US Federal Reserve including the 0.75% increase in the rate announced on June 15 slows the amount of borrowing through cash out refinancing. The supply chain disruptions disrupted flow of goods at a time of high demand in 2021 following the lockdowns, and then the war in Ukraine added another layer of inflation from high gas prices. The combined effect with housing price pressures created the perfect storm in inflation the US is facing with the rest of the world. ...

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Senator John Thune of South Dakota who had the support of Senators Daines and Mullin, and of retiring Republican Minority Leader won in a 3 way race against John Cornyn of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida. Scott of Florida had support of the MAGA allies of DJT. His liability was the way he had run the party as head of the Congressional campaign of 2022 with poor results. DJT stayed aloof from the race only saying he expected the Senate leader to defer to his policy for Ukraine.

Thune won 29 votes to 24 for Cornyn. His way of running the senate will be more open than Mitch McConnell's, getting more feedback from Senators, and more open to amendments. Priorities are securing the border and reauthorizing the tax cuts.

Thune seems a good choice so that the president gets to hear views of all members in the Senate and is well informed to make decisions.