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The European Commission has proposed a 9 month limit for vaccination validity for travel to and within the EU. If approved by EU ministers non EU travelers and travelers within the EU will be required to show they had booster shots once original vaccination status is more than 9 months old. 

The current practice of countries being added and dropped from red lists will be dropped and instead of 27 countries in the EU having a confusing set of their own restrictions, a uniform set of rules will apply for the whole of the European Union. Six months are set for waning immunity from the vaccinations and three months were added to give countries more time to prepare their booster shot vaccine campaigns.

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While growth will be closer to 3% for 2008 and next half of 2007, inflationary impact of any spurt in growth will be higher from now on as higher food and energy prices are expected Productivity isn't going to contribute much and corporate profits will grow only by around 5% in 2007 and 2008 compared to 21% in 2006. If the Fed raises rate because of the inflation pickup being a significant factor to consider then the spurt in growth would be at risk. And ofcourse the fall in housing prices will have an impact into 2008 and affect consumer buying.

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Dirk Kurbjuweit of Spiegel says Merkel needs to show strong leadership to overcome the challenges with the rise of right wing populists in the U.S., Britain and France. He points to the leadership shown in the latter part of Kohl's term in office to promote German reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The challenges include talking to the German people directly in a convincing way, and meeting the day to day challenges of life for the people with investments in education, health care, infrastructure so that people see real significant improvement. It is even necessary to reorder priorities such as the shift from nuclear energy so that this challenge is met. It is not enough to hope that more Christian Democrats turn out to vote than Social Democrats, that the fifth of Germans who feel the economy is not working for them and feel threatened by immigration see real changes being made to address their concerns.

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NYT reports show the Republican health care bill AHCA 33 votes short of passing the House and likely to fail. Conservative Republicans were looking to whittle down the safety net in the Affordable Care Act, and moderate Republicans could not stomach the whittled down bill removing guarantees of essential benefits for instance. The basic problem- no real consensus among Americans about providing health care to all Americans, and no real solutions possible as long as there is acceptance of disproportionately high levels of medical care costs for treating each disease in the U.S. compared to Europe and other countries.

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Five rules the editors of the WSJ say should be followed when working on cleaning up the banking system. A clear no, as Krugman and other experts point out is for the government to make the rather imprudent move to take on all the debts of the banks as in Ireland. A second rule is not to underestimate the size of the problem and delay action till the problem gets much worse, when its harder to deal with. ECB president, Mario Draghi, pointed out the problem at Spain's handling of Bankia bank as a clear example, telling the European parliament recently: "There is a first assessment, then a second, a third, a fourth. This is the worst possible wayof doing things. Everyone ends up doing the right thing, but at the highest cost." A third rule is to set clear rules about banks, who gets rescued and who gets closed and why- so that its not left upto the discretion of officials. On this rule Spain's outgoing Zapatero administration gets good marks from WSJ for settting clear rules to the cajas svings banks. A fourth rule applicable to Europe is to first setup the expertise and conditions for a European banking regulator before setting up a banking union and direct injection of funds by the EFSF into banks of individual countries. A fifth rule is to avoid creating even larger mega banks by consolidating failing banks with large banks, and continuing the government's implicit guarantee of the bank because it is "too big to fail" and creates systemic risk- this is the situation after action by the U.S. Federal Reserve, regulators and the U.S. Treasury....

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A German reporter questions the value of the G20 meetings following the violence on streets at the last Hamburg meeting. He says the first G20 during the global financial crisis was useful but later meetings have not lived up to the hope for discussion and search for solutions to world problems. Global trade is at the top of the agenda following the tariffs dispute between China and the U.S. Divergent interests of participants are a problem. Would going back to G-7 in private meetings be a solution asks this reporter.

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The Trump administration is set to impose 15% tariffs on $156 billion of Chinese goods including laptops, mobile phones, and apparel, on December 15, 2019. This is in addition to the tariffs already in place on $361 billion of Chinese goods. The new list of goods for the tariffs on December 15 are goods that are made mostly in China. About 87% of the goods on this list are made only in China. If talks fail with China by this week the tariffs will go into effect. WIth this tariff all goods imported from China will have tariffs on the goods imported into the U.S. adding to the difficulties facing the Chinese economy. A recent article in the WSJ shows China is shifting to higher skilled manufacturing and the service sector to maintain jobs growth.

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The U.S. plans to withdraw from the 1987 Nuclear Treaty with Russia that banned development of missiles that fly from 300 to 3400 miles. The 1987 Treaty was signed at the height of the Cold War by presidents Reagan and Gorbachev. The U.S. says the missile system set up by Russia in 2017 violates the Treaty and puts the U.S. at a military disadvantage. Russia denies it is violating the Treaty. The withdrawal will take place over 6 months. If Russia does not restore compliance with the Treaty in 6 months the U.S. will withdraw.

U.S. president Trump says the U.S. will not remain constrained by the Treaty while Russia misrepresents it actions. Russia has placed importance in the deployment of the Novator 9M729 missile and insists it is in compliance with the Treaty.

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The U.S. Fed, America's central bank, barrs bank buyback of shares and limits dividend payouts to quarterly profit. The Fed does this as it warns banks they could sustain heavy losses of $700 billion for soured loans if the economy is slow to recover over several quarters, and unemployment remains high. The Fed's latest stress test for banks included the impact of the coronavirus epidemic. At this time the Fed says banks are healthy and this is protective action to keep the banks in safety.

Another sign of the changes taking place in finance and banking- swift action by the U.S. central bank leadership to stop early any potential improper behaviour of banks to do debt buybacks or dividend payout not meeting rules related to profit. 

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The shaping of China's policy for a Air Defense Zone and the role of president Jinping,

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Moody's lowered Italy's credit ratings by two notches from A3 to Baa2, putting it two levels from junk territory. Moody's views are that Italy was subject to increasing deterioration in market confidence with contagion from Spain, as Spain may need more support and its banking system is likely to have more losses than expected. Moody's also sees diminished overseas investments in Italy. Its assessment is for a 2% decline in GDP in 2012. High debt levels and significant funding needs in 2012-2013 are also taken into account in this rating.

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The SEC filed the Goldman civil suit the same day that its Inspector General released a report on the gross failure of the SEC for a decade to catch the Ponzi scheme of Allen Stanford. As a result of the lawsuit against Goldman that report never got the front page coverage it deserved leaving most people unaware of some crucial facts about SEC behaviour. The IG report shows how the enforcement chief of the SEC Fort Worth office quashed his staff's efforts to investigate- and following this how he goes into private practice landing Stanford as a client. The Goldman Abacus case has a whole cast of characters, the SEC, the Ratings agencies, and even the supposed victims German bank IKB. IKB sold commercial paper IOU's to investors in mid 2007 that were worthless to investors by the end of that year. IKB's CEO Stefan Ornstein went on trial in Germany for lying about IKB's financial condition before its collapse.

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Business Week's Michael Lewis has some serious questions and a message for investment bank Goldman. His questions- ACA was incompetent which is why it was chosen as CDO (collaterized debt obligation) manager. ACA was chosen by Goldman precisely because it did not know what it was doing and lost $900 million in the process. So too IKB, the dull witted German bank which lost $150 million. Goldman did not lose $100 million on the Abacus deal because Goldman was shorting the subprime market by March 2007 the time of the Abacus deal. Knowing this requires transparency of all dealings of Goldman's proprietary trading desk to understand real losses. Fab Tourre, the 27 year old Frenchman, is just a kid in this game. The real name behind this is Jonathan Egol. Who is this guy who clearly knew the subprime market was doomed in 2006 in remarks he made at the time.

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Losses on aTishman/BlackRock property in New York , the 11,000apartment, 56 building, Bedford Stuyvesant property built by MetLife for veterans of World War II, is in danger of default. Losses would approach $500 million for Calpers, $575 million for Singapore's GIC, $250 million for Florida State Board, and $70 million ofr the Church of England. The property was purchased in the hope of using easing rent control laws to increase rents but tenants successfully blocked the rent increases in court.

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Madras High Court decides that it has no jurisdiction over whether Indian patent law violates WTO guidelines on intellectual property. Novartis had asked the Madras High Court to clarify this point. Indian patent law (2005 patent legislation) states that a drug qualifies for a patent only if it is a new invention or a significant improvement, not a new version of a drug from before 1995. The court upheld this. Novartis's modified version of Gleevec, a leukemia drug, was denied a patent by a Indian court. Was it right in doing so? The Madras High Court affirmed this decision, and it will not be appealed to the Supreme Court.