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A two month ceasefire in the war in Yemen that has already claimed 377,000 lives. A proxy war is being fought in that country between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

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As OPEC members met again in June 2015 for the first time since the meeting in November 2014, there is a sense that OPEC no longer exerts the same influence on oil prices. There are 4000 oil companies in the U.S., says one U.S. State Department official, even if OPEC were to cut production the cuts could be matched by shale oil producers in the U.S. quickly increasing output. This is the new reality, say experts. OPEC expects to keep production at the same level of the current production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day in place for the 7th meeting in over 3 years. Algeria and Nigeria, both hurt badly by the drop in oil price, have called for cuts but failed to persuade the Saudis. With Russia unwilling to join a coordinated production cut, there is not much talk about doing this. The Saudis and Iraq have continued to pump more oil, with April 2015 production of 30.84 million barrels a day the highest monthly average since 2012. Other factors also remain in the minds of the Saudis and other producers such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar- policies on climate change, use of less energy and more from friendlier sources for the same amount of economic output demonstrated by countries such as Germany, advances in technology, energy saving transitions in emerging markets such as China and India....

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With strong US growth Nvidia data center sales sales are up to $39 billion up 73% in mid 2025. After taking a $4.5 billion charge on chips designed for China after US government stopped sales to China of sensitive technologies Nvidia is doing very well. This is the result of the rapid growth in AI investments in the US being made by Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and other companies. During DJT's visit to Saudi Arabia he signed agreements that allow US exports of AI chips to Saudis in exchange for $1 trillion in investments in the US in AI infrastructure. A Biden Diffusion rule had blocked such sales to allies.

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Fearing instability within their own kingdom Saudis take a cautious view of the protests in Iran. UAE take a different view and supports the US. 

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How a weak dollar is affecting countries in the Persian Gulf such as the Emirates and Quatar as inflation approaches 12% and South Asian workers seeing the value of their remittances home diminish as th rupee strengthens against the dollar. Saudi inflation is smaller at 5% and the Saudis intend to keep the dollar peg for their currency. Kuwait has shifted to a peg based on a basket of currencies. The Gilf Cooperation Council is expected to meet soon and this will be an important topic.

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Technology is reshaping the world of oil by 2018. The U.S. Permian Basin stretching from West Texas to New Mexico now produces more oil than the UAE and is likely to soon surpass Iran- production is at 3.1 million barrels a a day. There are as many rigs as in 2011 yet the production has tripled because of the use of high tech rigs that can move quickly to new locations over wide areas and with tech that can see hundreds of feet into the rock. By 2019 the U.S. will surpass Russia as the world's largest producer of oil. The drop in oil prices to about $40 a barrel in recent years is a result of Saudi efforts to block shale oil development by lowering prices. This has not worked. Initially some high cost producers exited the industry and the shale industry suffered. Over time the new technologies spurred by lower oil prices have led to the anticipated drop in cost. Shale oil can now be produced by core producers at $40 a barrel and still be profitable according to this WSJ report. All Middle Eastern countries cannot meet budget needs at $40 a barrel. In 2018 oil prices increased back up to $77 a barrel. In the next wave of declining prices the shale industry is better positioned than the OPEC countries.   ...

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Israeli concerns as the democracy protests lead to new elections in Egypt, and democracy protests take place in all parts of the Arab world. Veteran correspondent Ted Koppel talks to Israeli leaders in Jerusalem. They tell him their first concern is Iran, which they see benefitting from the changes in the Middle East. They would like to see a Marshall Plan for Egypt- continuing U.S. aid to Egypt to maintain economic progress there. They are watching the situation in Libya and Syria as it evolves. The Israeli leaders also tell Koppel that they would like to see the U.S. make a commitment to Saudi Arabia, if the survival of the Saudi governmet is at risk. In Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, Israel sees Iranian influence as the larger risk.

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Oil prices using the Brent crude benchmark drop to $113 a barrel this week with further declines expected as the Saudis are now prepared to increase oil production to support the US in its deterrence campaign against Russia and China. Saudis under Prince Salman will do this in exchange for security guarantees against Yemeni rebels and Iranian attacks.

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See the BBC show geography of the Straits Hormuz of Iran and Saudi/Oman. Would Iran block the Straits of Hormuz, the narrow waters in the Persian Gulf where Oman, Saudi Arabia on one side and Iran on the other meet. At some points the corridor in the sea which is 20 miles wide at narrowest point, is 108 miles long, is only 6 miles wide for oceangoing tankers carrying a fifth of world oil supplies. The reason Iran woul be hesitant to do this are- Iran supplies China with discounted oil through these Straits. Iran central bank says $67 billion of its total oil exports go through the Straits Hormuz, 90% of it to China. China gets a third of its oil supplies from the Saudis/Iran through these Straits. India gets 40% of its oil supplies, Japan 75% and South Korea 60% of crude oil supplies through tankers plying this waterway. It would put China and  all industrialized countries in opposition to Iran. It would also cut Iranian oil exports and leave it's oil based economy unfunded.   ...

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Energy Aspects, London based consultancy, estimates non-OPEC production declines of 700,000 barrels a day, up from previous forecasts of 200,000-300,000 barrels a day. Demand is expected to be higher than supply by June 2016, and drawing down inventory from that time. Agreement to freeze production is uncertain at a Doha meeting of OPEC countries, with Iran planning to increase production from 3.1 million barrels a day currently to 4 million barrels a day. Saudis increased production to 10 million barrels a day in 2015, and Iran is determined to increase its production to the higher level. The price of U.S. oil rebounded to $42.17 by April 2016.

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A plan appears to have been put in place by the U.S. and the European Union countries to strengthen the American position in negotiations with Iran underway in Istanbul. The impact on oil prices and on U.S. and E.U. growth as a consequence of higher oil prices, especially when the eurozone countries faced lowed growth, was one of the ways Iran hope to blunt the tightening of sanctions against Iran's nuclear program. It now appears from information released by the International Energy Agency that a plan was implemented by the Saudis in recent months to build up reserve supplies. At the same time a similiar effort was being implemented to increase production in Iraq and Libya so that it would add to reserves added by the Saudis. Daily output from OPEC countries increased by about 1.4 millon barrels in the Sept 2011- March 2012 period, as the confrontation with Iran took shape with increasing pressure using sanctions on Iranian oil, according to the IEA. Of this 1.4 million barrels a day increase, one third is from the Saudis and the rest from Iraq and Libya, according to IEA. In March 2012, OPEC oil production increased by 135,000 barrels a day to 31.4 million barrels, mostly from higher output in Iraq. The Saudis have filled up domestic oil inventories and placed an additional 10 million barrels of oil in storage close to markets in Europe and Japan. This suggests that this was part of a quietly implemented plan in cooperation with the U.S. and the EU countries to increase the effectiveness of sanctions and protect global oil supplies from disruptions; even as the U.S. pressured Japan, S. Korea, India and other countries to reduce purchases of Iranian oil. The economies of India, the EU and other countries were already beginning to feel the impact of higher oil prices in the 1st quarter of 2012....

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This NYT report on Mohamed Bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates, who comes from Abu Dhabi one of the 7 emirates in the Gulf Coastal region, is rare and unusual. It provides stories the prince loves to tell that make a point about how he sees the world. Here he tells them to Robert F. Worth, in the only interview Mohamed bin Zayad has ever given to a journalist from US or Europe. It took a year just to get the interview. The title about a Dark Vision is inappropriate as Mohamed Zayad simply reflects what is a British way of looking at things- valuing the Constitution, keeping religion private even its deeply held beliefs and cultural traditions such as Bedouin's practice, and a general tolerance that characterizes British society and similar societies throughout the history of Europe and Asia that were sitting on shipping lanes and practiced trade for a livelihood. It is also important because the other Mohamed, Mohamed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia is seen as someone influenced by the ideas of Mohamed Bin Zayad of Abu Dhabi. President Biden plans a trip to the region in coming months to continue on building a narrative of development for the region. This provide an insight into the coastal regions that include Gujarat across the Gulf in India, that for centuries traded with the Gulf kingdoms. They have a trading mentality and with it comes a tolerance that is also seen in trading nations such as England. This is what brought Britain to India (and China) says Mohandas Gandhi. Gandhi went so far as to say that if there was trade on the moon you would find a British shopkeeper was first to setup shop there. Zayed has as a minister in his cabinet, a woman who is minister of Tolerance, Sheikha Lubna al Quasimi.  Zayed is unique for three reasons. He has embedded in his views the spirit of tolerance. As Worth puts it in NYT, Zayed has grasped what is true to the spirit of the Gulf region. The country's location on an ancient shipping lane has bred a type of Islam in the Gulf region, that is open to the world and tolerant.  His father Zayed Nahyan's  tendencies to openness and frank demeanor combine with this tolerance to provide a different kind of leadership. His father had the pluralist instincts that combined traditional Bedouin attitudes with a rare liberal mindedness. He died at age 86 in 2004. Zayed bin Nahyan MBZ's father was selected for these very reasons by the British in 1966 to rule the small Gulf kingdom of Abu Dhabi. In 1966, says this NYT report, the country was mostly illiterate, half of all children died during childbirth and one third of the women during childbirth, there was a complete lack of western medicine. Zayed Nahyan's brother was averse to development making the British select Zayed Nahyan at the request of Abu Dhabhi families. These early years shaped Mohamed Bin Zayed's views of how to see the world. Zayed the son loves to tell stories, and this one in the NYT shows how Mohamed bin Zayed the son and Mohamed bin Nahyan the father share a sense of what it means to be human and support all people's aspirations for a better life. This is the narrative in India and the region of 1.8 billion people that extends from India to Indonesia and Vietnam. This was seen at the G7 when leaders of India and Indonesia were invited to meet with the G7 in Munich, Germany and taken as utterly serious participants in the discussions to shape the Free World. To see the difference- UAE has signed agreements to increase trade with India to $100 billion over 5 years and was thanked by prime minister Modi for treatment of 8 million Indian workers in the Gulf region during the pandemic. Saudis are now stabilizing the Turkish and Egyptian economies with aid and providing some of the funding assistance for Siemens to modernize the entire Egyptian rail system with the latest technology over the next 5 years. Projects of this size that have never been undertaken since 1945. Sometime in the 1980's when Zayed was a young military officer having completed training at the Royal British Military Academy at Sandhurst, England, and educated in Scotland, he went to the grasslands of Tanzania. During his visit to Tanzania he went to several villages to see the Masai tribes. When he returned he sat with his father crosslegged on the floor in traditional Bedouin and Asian style and told him about his travels. His father asked Zayed about all the details- the wildlife, the Masai people and their customs, the extent of poverty in the country. After hearing it all his father asked Zayed what he had done for the people he had encountered. In response Zayed shrugged and answered, the people he met were not Muslims. Zayed still recalls his father's reaction, sudden, forceful and indelible from memory. Zayad says his father took a sudden hold of his arm and spoke to him in a harsh tone and stern demeanor- " We are all God's children."     ...

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Saudi Arabia and the UAE are emerging as large arms buyers. Saudi Arabia spent $80 billion on arms purchases in 2014, more than France or Britain, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The Emirates spent $23 billion, triple the amount spent in 2006. Qatar made a $11 billion deal in 2014 for air defense systems and helicopters. It is looking for F-15 fighter jets to replace its fleet of older Mirage jets. Lockheed plans to replace smaller Pentagon sales by increasing global arms sales to 25-30%, according to CEO Marillyn Hewson. It has setup a separate division for foreign military sales.

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About one in five people have diabetes in the Persian Gulf region countries of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, according to the International Diabetes Federation. High rates of obesity and unhealthy lifestyles are to blame for the epidemic.

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DJT on Iran and the midterms-  "voters understand that" about Iran not having a nuclear weapon and calls for Saudis, Qatar, Pakistan, Oman, Turkey, to sign the Abraham Accords. He says the electon results in some states May 26 showed Republicans and much of the Nation with large majorities for candidates endorsed by DJT- voters understand the president's policy to not let Iran go for a nuclear weapon. This WSJ report cites concerns of Republicans about the midterms yet as soon as it appeared that the president was about to reach a  deal that would be similar to Obama's- that failed and financed Iran's third effort for nuclear weapons- over the weekend, as soon as this appeared to be the course many Republicans and the WSJ Editorial Board, said this was a bad idea. The president paused that effort. At a Cabinet meeting DJT said  about the Arab states signing the Abraham Accords- the Saudis and Qatar, Oman, Turkey,Jordan, “I think they owe that to us to be honest.”  “I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign." On Iran getting funds from the US which could go right into making a nuclear weapons program again as it did after the Obama administration did this, DJT had this to say- “We’re not talking about any easing of sanctions, no giving money. When they behave properly…we’ll let them have their money.” Repeatedly at campaign events and rallies across the country for 10 years DJT has said Obama made a serious mistake in handing over funds that were put right into building a nuclear weapons program with a ballistic weapons program, for a third time. This has happened before in North Korea. Obama allowed 11 tons of uranium enriched at 20% to be shipped to Russia- that did not stop Iran from a new nuclear weapons program and a threat to Israel. There is also considerable Republican skepticism about any deal that does not remove nuclear weapons. About sending the Iranian uranium to Russia or China DJT said- “No. That would not make me comfortable.”  About Iran's economy DJT said inflation is "at 250% "and they are negotiating on fumes." DJT calls it a "conflict" (the blockade not committing US troops) and not an open ended war. ...

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DJT says time is on their side to negotiators so that the blockade on Iran will remain till a deal is made that cover nuclear materials. US blockade of Iran in force till a deal is reached as final deal will require going beyond Memorandum to nuclear materials -this is the situation on May 24 2026. Mediators Pakistan and Turkey have only got as far as getting a Memorandum- a written document of intentions not actions taken on nuclear materials- while all the time the IRGC Iran says nuclear is not included. What explains this? There are now two factions inside Iran that are the IRGC and the elected president of Iran, one not as committed to nuclear weapons as the IRGC at the cost to the people of Iran and the nation's economic future. This war has proved that while oil producing countries are causing great damage to their economies and productive potential- this includes Russia, Iran and Saudis-the world is moving on its goal of reduced dependence on oil followed by fossil free future in 2 stages. By the first stage if modernization does not take place in the Middle East it will lose forever the opportunity to modernize infrastructure and fall behind other countries including China, India, Brazil and other nations that have made the shift.  ...

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Fitness and athleticism was on display as a key factor when this proved to outdo better playing skills of Spanish and German players in Japan's win over Germany and Spain. This was also evident for other smaller nations such as Morocco and Saudi Arabia. At one point Costa Rica led Germany 2-1, showing that fitness and determination plays a key part in soccer and all sports.

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A look at the Torrevieja plant for desalinated water in the NYT by Reed and Chaundler. The plant uses solar energy to cut the cost. Spain is a leader in this technology. The use of desalinated water is expecially useful in places like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates with plenty of sunshine for solar energy and demand for water in cities located near the sea.

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Oil traders are pricing in much higher oil prices- with $150 not being inconceivable- because of Mideast unrest. They see this unrest playing out over a long period of time, and do not see this changing even if the Libyan situation returns to normal tomorrow. Saudi Arabia will need to price oil at $85-90 a barrel just to meet the economic demands for a growing population, says Rachel Ziemba, analyst at Roubini Global Economics. Saudi King Abdullah recently promised $150 billion in new housing, higher wages and other benefits to prevent protests. The fiscal pressures are growing in these countries. A $15-$20 premium for unrest is assigned by Paramount Options, a trader at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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Cuba, Egypt, Brazil, Saudis, Singapore, are developing their own vaccines with shortfall in Covax plan supplies.