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Greg Ip says in WSJ that Biden's $2 trillion Families and Workers Plan (Build Back Better) should be moved forward or restrained, not on the basis of its trivial or secondary effect on inflation, but on its main goal of expanding a torn social safety net.That one vote in the Senate in 50-50 US Senate, that of Mr. Manchin is holding it back, should be set out in the clearest terms- that Mr. Manchin is not comfortable with repairing a torn social safety net to the level Mr. Biden is.  Greg Ip points out that Moody's and other experts see the same effects on inflation with or without the plan which is over ten years. He says besides the supply chain bottlenecks that would ease at some point, inflation would be kept close to 2% target by Powell at the US central bank, the Fed. It is all about how the US plans renewal of its economy from this pandemic and from the crises past, knowing that it has learned the lessons along the way, so that the economy works for all the people and builds America's strength in the world- pointing to a brighter future for all and a strong America. ...

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Inadequate infrastructure, mismanagement and damage to pipelines is resulting in a energy crisis in Iran, a major oil and gas producing country. Supply is being continued to homes leading to cuts to about 40% of factories and to electricity producing plants. In Venezuela low prices of gas and mismanagement have led to waste and losses that created an energy crisis in another oil producing country. Lack of foreign investment means aging infrastructure and no updates in technology of production. Socialist administrations find their work backfiring in this way as in Venezuela, lack of experienced managers and people to run the economy leads to dire results including runaway inflation and shortages. Political rhetoric for workers disguises the problems building up in an economy that can tear the economy apart, as good relations with all countries are needed and the country's trained and experienced middle class and technical experts given an important role in development. ...

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Levelling up is proving to be a false promise of the Conservatives. Where the money is coming from and how much and where it is going answers the question in America for Biden. Fair taxation is key, a strong economy is key for Biden. Fair taxation supports trillions in public investment that in turn generate private investment. In the second quarter of 2023 business investment was up 56% in Biden America, about $1 trillion with more in the pipeline.  The Conservatives fail on both and have no plan for step by step action that fits needs and opportunities in the economy as Biden has. Getting equal share of the fruits of labour to all Britons is never going to happen under trickle down economics of the Trump or Tory kind. That much is clear as daylight.

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This opinion of the Editorial Board of WSJ says it is not clear why Taiwan has been excluded from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework that includes most of South East Asia including Indonesia, and India, South Korea, Japan, Australia. The Biden administration plans to deepen economic ties with Taiwan. WSJ says this is a mistake and Taiwan should be included in the new Asian alliance led by the US. IPEF is a Asian alliance built around 4 pillars of digital economy, transparency and good governance, Asian security and rule of law, and rapid economic technological progress. Biden administration Commerce minister Raimondo says it will increase investment in the alliance countries for supply chain renewal and shift of investments away from China and into India, Vietnam. President Biden and Jake Sullivan see it as pulling in investment into the US for infrastructure and technology and into allies such as India who have the pool of manufacturing workers to compete with China in a new supply chain. Mr. Modi also sees it as he is focused on digital economy, good governance, and infrastructure with speed and scale at high levels to match rising aspirations for the economy in India. It is designed in a way that lets US, Japan South Korea and India to fill in the needs and strategies over the period to 2030 and 2040 so that US and Europe and the Free World in Asia and Latin America, Africa can preserve democratic values with matching technological and economic strength. ...

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Russia's Elvira Nabiullina, has helped Russia avoid the worst effects of the collapse in oil prices with the careful management of the economy. Russia has weathered the crisis better than most emerging markets, say experts, with policy moves that included a devaluation of the ruble, recapitalizing banks, increasing the share of public debt in Russian hands, and assistance to poorer sections of society. Following the last crisis in 2008 Russia built up its rainy day fund, the sovereign wealth fund, to $500 billon to help support the economy in difficult periods. Experts say, and Nabiullina concurs, that what is needed now even more than a rise in oil prices is improvement in business conditions and business climate to generate growth following high interest rates of 17% in 2014. Exceptional performance by an exceptional banker, known for her humility and experience through several crises, as deputy economy minister in 2000 and economy minister in 2007. Better relations with the European Union would do just that, particularly to increase foreign investment in Russia's economy, and restore the conditions for growth. ...

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Strong economic performance means that the US Fed's Powell is "not in a hurry" to raise rates. Powell said "The economy is strong. We see very strong growth." Powell also said about the Fed- "Integrity is everything."

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European businesses are increasing investment in the US because of its relative stability and growth compared to a sharp slowdown with covid lockdowns in China and political risk in China with the war in Ukraine. The US is also more attractive than Europe for investment as Europe face a slowing economy with the war in Ukraine and the embargo on Russian energy supplies.

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The Bank of England under Governor Carney cut interest rates 0.25% from a low of 0.5%, and suggested further cuts were on the way. This follows Brexit and action by the central bank to avoid a recession. The British pound fell about 1.6% to $1.3112 against the dollar, and euro 1.770 against the euro. Government borrowing costs declined, and the 10 year bonds yield dropped to 0.639%. Economic growth in Britian for the second half 2016 will be little or none. The GDP growth forecast for 2017 is now 0.8%, down from 2.3% before the Brexit vote. Bank of England staff say their calculations show Brexit vote has "conservatively" reduced growth by 2.5 percentage points over 3 years even after the rate cuts and stimulus action of the Bank of England, which other estimates show could add 0.5% over 2 years. This brings the Brexit impact to about 3% loss in GDP over 3 years, with these reliable estimates. Months after the Brexit vote the question remains whether Brexit supporters misled British voters, leaving the Bank of England to come up with a way to prevent a recession. After the austerity cuts since 2009 and the prospect of some improvement in the economy, this is a step backwards at a time when some of the working and middle class find themselves left behind. ...

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Most of it is because of Donald Jr. and his affinity for Vance, a bonding that developed once the former president left office. Donald Jr. championed Vance choice over Burghum and Rubio. For the former president the choice was natural because his style fitted that of Vance of saying directly with candor what he thought. Vance's criticism that a second Trump administration focused on tax cuts and not investing in the American economy would not lead to economic growth still rings true as shown in the adjoining article on the US dollar, on inflation moving up with tariffs and job growth affected by lack of the government investing in the economy and American manufacturing. Even in the Depression years Republicans stuck to their idea that governments should stay out, are they likely to change that today? Vance's criticism was made before he became senator, in 2016. It would lead to another lost decade for the American economy and people, and put America just where the Tories have left Britain today so that Keir Starmer's Labour cannot bring immediate relief to the British people struggling with cost of living in 2025, with the mess the Tories have left behind.  ...

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Krugman says the kind of spending on helping the US economy never happened. That is relative to the size of the US economy, not much happened uder the Obama administration. As evidence, he cites the figures that total government payrolls have declined by 350,000 since January 2009. And he says government purchases of goods and services increased only by 3% in the last 2 years.

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China is going through a long period of debt reduction or deleveraging in which income is diverted to payoff debt and debt reduction. Debt has piled up at local governments, households, and the private sector during the period of heavy borrowing to expand the economy and build infrastructure. BIS data shows total debt in China at 295% of GDP in September 2022 compared to 257% in the US and 258% in the Eurozone. This report in WSJ says consumers are hoarding cash and refusing to take out new loans, private businesses are barely investing, and local governments are paring down debt for all expenses including worker's salaries and roads.

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Greg Ip tells India's story, piped water for hundreds of millions of Indians, massive increases in road and rail, rapid development of infrastructure, aviation, ports logistics. WSJ graph shows country growth of economies for Japan, China, India, Germany in 2000 and 2020. By 2000 Japan had grown its economy to become about half the size of the US economy with two decades of rapid growth since 1980. China repeated this process with two decades of hyper growth since 2000 to become about 75% of the US economy by 2020. The graphs also show Japanese growth tailing off so rapidly after 2000 in relation to the US economy that it is now only about 25% of the US economy. China is likely to follow the same path as growth slows and with an aging population to become about 35-40% of the US economy by 2040 from 75%. India following the process that happened in Japan and in China is likely to become close to 35-40% of the US economy by 2040 from about 18% today, with the fastest growth over the next two decades for the most populous country in the world. Greg Ip points out what has been achieved since 2014 with the Modi government. Good governance without leakages of public funds dedicated to infrastructure, ease of living, GST one India one tax so that growing pool of funds from taxes fund rapid development with no leakages to corrupt officials,  Swacch Bharat or Clean India, clean water from taps, electricity and cooking gas for the whole population of India with dates for completion. All this Ip calls removal of the shackles that existed for far too long even past 2000 and 2010 when China had vastly surpassed India from its low point in 1980 after Mao and the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. India today is in as much a pace of development as China in the 1990's and Japan in the 1960's, except that it now has the benefit of grasping how development can be done in a way that does not affect climate and health in adverse ways as happened with China's hyper growth -which also led to the tragic loss of manufacturing for workers and communities in the US and Europe due to the economic theories of laissez faire of the Reagan era. Reagan theory for governments not working with industry that were applied indiscriminately during the Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump presidencies for three decades led to shipping manufacturing overseas with no regard for the risks and dangers. What Greg Ip fails to mention is the uniqueness of India that is united by Vedanta, Hinduism and Buddhism for thousands of years, and which keeps the fabric of society together when it is divided by 13 language groups. These 13 language groups are: Hindi 43% of the population, Bengali 8%, Marathi 7%, Telugu 7%, Tamil 6%, Gujarati 5%, Urdu 4%, Kannada 4%, Odia 3%, Malayalam 3%, Punjabi 3%, Assamese 1%, English 1%. It was the vision of the early leaders Vivekananda, Gokhale, Mohandas Gandhi, Nehru, Sardar Patel, that united a diverse country with many languages and cultural variation. And it is this vision of Vivekananda that is creating the Good Governance under Sab ka Vikas, Sab ka Viswas, Sab ke Saath, Sab ka Prayas of today- development for all, with the confidence of all, with the support of all, the efforts of all. Without a disciplined direction based on hard work India could not make it this far or fulfill the aspirations of its youthful population by 2040. ...

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The US economy grew at 2% in the third quarter 2010, compared to 1.7% in second quarter 2010. Unemployment remains at 9.6%, and the growth did not generate hiring. Much of the growth came from business building inventories, exports grew at 5%, imports rose 17%. Residential construction plunged, state and local government spending contracted as it did for 6 of the last 8 quarters. This increases concerns about the economy.

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The platform sector of workforce is now an accepted part of the Chinese economy. Le Monde looks at actual cases of workers and their families and why they end up choosing platform work with Didi as drivers, or as home delivery workers for other companies. 84 million platform workers 1 in 5 workers in China in 2025, and 420000 civil cases filed in Courts in China over period 2020-2024 for excessive hours, safety, injury and lack of social insurance. Workers send money home to rural areas and work upto 90 hours a week to make about $1 per delivery in China and strive to make about $1220 a month with excessive hours and little in benefits. This sector acts as a backup to absorb labour when companies close such as the bankruptcy of big property construction companies such as Evergrande. In 2024 the government set rules to regulate abuses in this sector. As China shifts from dependence on construction, and as exports to the US face resistance and tariffs, laid off sorkers end up in this sector with few benefits. The government regulates it to reduce social tensions. ...

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The title of this BBC report is a misnomer as the content of the report is that India and the US are actively negotiating a Trade Agreement after some disagreements on Indian oil purchases from Russia bumped up from 2% before 2019 to about one third to 40% of its imports by 2024. This is being rapidly reversed and some estimates by consultants CLSA show India only made $2-3 billion from Russian discounted oil sales, a miniscule amount. On American interest in agricultural exports India can take in some products other than grain which it sees as important to feed 1 billion people and food security.  DJT says the "special relationship" between India and the US is important, and says "there's nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion". India has much bigger stakes in trade with the US. In fact it's growth into the third largest economy in the world means doubling or tripling its trade with the US and the European Union in the next few years. This would narrow the difference in GDP and per capita between India and China, as India and China started at the same GDP and per capita in 1950. Only in 1990 with China's trade with the US has the Chinese GDP and per capita income increased to create the huge gap with India. ...

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Tomahawk missile transfer by the US to Ukraine would not change the war on the front lines in Ukraine as both sides are entrenched in their positions with not much progress. What it would do is provide capabilities for strikes on oil facilities that cause problems for the economy and standards of living. The idea is to get Russia to the table for serious talks knowing it will have to also make some concessions. US is thinking about how to do this to get to talks without turning this into an escalation. This is why the DJT meeting with Putin in Budapest is planned.

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The US central bank the Fed's Powell leaves interest rates unchanged July 30, 2025- as he waits to see what happens with inflation following tariffs action by DJT to level playing field with EU, Japan, China. A tariff of 15% is set in US Trade Agreements with Japan, EU and South Korea. Powell says the impact on US consumers will be minimal but not zero, with some effects expected even though EU, Japan and South Korea will not attempt to pass through the tariffs and risk the other benefits of trade access to the US market.

Overall both the European Union and the US have a good economy, with inflation at 2% and the the unemployment situation the best it has been in some decades near 6% in EU and near 4% in the US. 

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German economy contracts in second quarter 2024 by 0.1%. Growth is forecast at 0.3% for 2024 and 1.1% for 2025, according to country statistics office Destatis. The contrast could not be greater in Biden's management of the economy as US economic growth was much higher at about 2.8% in 2024. It shows the positive effects of Biden's effort to revive American manufacturing, and to support chips and science and American industry, and the investment of a trillion dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act in American infrastructure. Without these investments American recovery strong at this time would have hobbled along with much worse effects on jobs and inflation, and looming recession, under a Trump administration. Unusual factors such as the concentration of the supply chain in China have influenced US inflation, which Biden is correcting, and also bringing jobs at home. The economic management is excellent it  is the effects of the pandemic and broken supply chains, high mortgage rates and 20% price increases in apartment rentals that are making cost of living a problem for average Americans. Biden has taken cost of living action including canceling student debt and calling for limiting rent increases for apartment rentals to 5%. Harris has a program to support renters when housing takes up more than 30% of their income. ...

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Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer interview by NYT's Lulu Navarro looks at the swing state of Michigan and its popular governor. Asked about president president Biden's 3 trillion dollar investments in Manufacturing, in Chips and Science, in Infrastructure, Whitmer says the public is still just coming out of the pandemic and has seen only some of the beneficial effects of this program of massive investment in the US economy. She says it is similar to what she heard from Michiganders which amounted to "Governor Fix the Dam Roads." She says the former president Trump lacks any such vision for the US economy, and for the future. Of the present time Whitmer says that the pandemic has taken a toll in people's lives, people are stressed out, and just hanging in there trying to pay the grocery bills, get the kids to school, and show up at work. They have hardly the time to figure out what the CHIPS Act means. Whitmer is in her second term as governor and comes from the western part of the state around Grand Rapids which is traditionally Republican. In her election for governor she was able to win with good margins in this western part of the State even as a Democrat. This interview show Whitmer wanting to be able to work with Republicans in the best interests of the state and the Nation. ...

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This inflation is different from anything that happened before as it is driven by both demand and supply side situation. Seeing it as only demand side and acting on that would only damage the economy, says Greg Ip in the WSJ. On supply chain shortages there is little the government or the central bank can do to fix this in the short term. This is also why the Families and Workers Plan and Infrastructure plan of president Biden with about $2 trillion dollars in spending is not expected to cause much impact on inflation. The Fed is carefully looking at the situation because of the unique nature of the problem in 2021 to avoid any missteps that hurt the US economy and US growth for the coming decade, on which so much of the hope of America and the world rests.

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Amazon Prime has a trailer on King Charles's vision of a revolution for climate change action. The idea is to get a broader audience through streaming. The film title is -Finding Harmony: A King’s Vision.   Kate Winslett tells the story of King Charles and his vision.  It includes new footage of Charles with David Beckham, Meryl Streep. The film has been narrated by Kate Winslet, which was for Winslet “both a pleasure and a privilege” as she is part of the King's Foundation. The King’s Foundation said: “This documentary aims to showcase the importance of harmony to a new audience, and highlight the urgent action needed to help protect our planet, as His Majesty reflects on his life’s work across nature, sustainability and the environment.” The film is based on the King’s 2010 book, Harmony: A New Way of Looking at Our World. “This is a call to revolution. Revolution is a strong word, and I use it deliberately. The many environmental and social problems that now loom large on our horizon cannot be solved by carrying on with the very approach that has caused them. This will involve taking all sorts of dramatic steps to change the way we consider the world and act in it.” “The book is not just trying to raise the points about getting an electric car and some organic carrots. “This is about thinking fundamentally about the relationship we have with the life-support systems that sustain us and everything else and, indeed, the relationships between all of us, and how we organise our society, including our economy, and making points about circularity in our economic system, and how we might be inspired by nature in terms of how we think about resource use and how we look at ideas like economic growth.” ...

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Microsoft will be taking a $1.2 billion charge to earnings related to severance costs for 10,000 layoffs, as it prepares to do with fewer workers in a slowing economy. Tech took a larger part of US investments than warranted leaving public investments in infrastructure unfunded or underfunded. This is reversing as the US makes a push in infrastructure spending and in new factory investments in manufacturing.

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Greg Ip provides useful insights into the nature of the economic recovery in Britain compared to the U.S. by 2015. The recovery in Britain has done better than in the U.S. in job creation, but has lagged behind in productivity gains. The labor force participation rate is 72% in Britain compared to 68% in the U.S., going back up to 2007 levels in Britain, whereas in the U.S. it has steadily declined with some older working class Americans too discouraged to look for work and left behind. Stagnant wage growth is a major issue in Britain, more so than in the U.S. where wage growth is slow. Economic austerity is not the main cause of the economic difficulties as the coalition government of prime minister Cameron relaxed earlier goals for austerity by 2012 with tax revenues and growth below forecasts. The structural budget deficit has been reduced by 6.6% of GDP since the peak, and the Office of Budget Responsibility estimates the UK economy was 1.5%-2% smaller by 2013 because of the austerity policies. Britain was also affected by the eurozone crisis to a larger degree than the U.S. Productivity remains a long term challenge- with needed investments in housing, education and infrastructure, improved lending for new business, and higher tech improvement exports....

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Stock funds in the US which suffered decline of 18% in 2022 staged a recovery of 7.8% in January 2023. The Fed's ability to bring down inflation and the health of the economy, improving economic conditions in Europe, China, and India, provided supportive conditions.

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Japan's Sanseito anti-immigration party gets 7 seats, enough to deprive the ruling LDP-Komeito alliance of its parliamentary majority. Prime Minister Ishida of the LDP party may not last more than a few months. The LDP seems to have lost its way like the Democrats in the US. A recent article in NYT says LDP wanted to bring in 60 million tourists to Japan each year to boost the economy. Yet Japanese people in cities have a hard time handling 40 million tourists in 2024, with reports of disturbance of the once quiet life in city neigborhoods and failure to adopt the culture and language of Japan. Reports of migrant/tourist or immigrant crime get much press coverage. Japan has 124 million people and birthrate of 1.26 below the birthrate of 2.1 needed to stabilize population. Business asks for new immigrants to fill unfilled positions. The public has different ideas and the migration is causing disturbance in traditional way of life in Japan. Similar to what is seen in the US and Germany in more striking ways. The nationalist parties including Sanseito say even if the population falls to 100 million this is more than the population of 90 million in Germany, and is enough to sustain its economy. Use of robotics and AI is not talked about as much but offers Japan, US and Germany, a way to make up for the loss of foreign labor. In essence both American, British, Spanish, German, French, Italian, Austrian, Dutch, Danish and Japanese society share a yearning for traditional ways of life that are being ruffled and disturbed by the migration, immigration, or over tourism affecting their countries. Politicians need to pay attention to people affected and not live isolated in their own neighborhoods from the people in other less sheltered communities and neighborhoods across their countries. ...