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The issue of high youth unemployment. The bulge in demographics and the emphasis on increasing the number of college graduates without increasing the jobs available, or providing apprenticeship type training and degrees in areas where jobs can be created, has created a major problem in the Middle East. High youth unemployment in the US, Spain and the UK also poses serious problems. Former primer Minister Giuliano Amato of Italy recently told Corriere della Serra: "The older generations have eaten the future of the younger ones." Older workers tend to hold onto their jobs as long as possible as retirement ages are being raised, and they have negotiated higher retirement pensions. In Spain the younger part time workers and immigrant workers are the first to be laid off and unemployment is highest in this group, which is also why the high unemployment has not attracted as much attention there. Younger workers will eventually have to support a higher proportion of these workers in retirement because of the demographics. The shift to higher parttime employment and employment at low wages has also created a class of workers who have no future, as their incomes are low, and are easily laid off. This shift has been taking place in the US, Europe and Japan over the last decade. Germany has fared better because of its long tradition of apprenticeship training, and employers working directly with young students at universities to provide on the job training. The financial crisis of 2008 in the US slowed down many industries and created a shift in industries creating jobs, the result was a larger mismatch of skills of job seekers and new jobs created. One way to address this is more on the job training and working directly with employers, and assistance to community colleges to fill education gaps. ...

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Unemployment in Spain among people ages 16-24 is 42.9%. This is the highest rate in Europe, and it is double the overall rate of 19.3% for Spain. By comparison the overall jobless rate in the USA for workers ages 16-24 is up to 19.1%. Why this high an unemployment rate for young workers? Greece has youth unemployment rate of 25%, while Ireland has a youth unemployment rate of 28.%, and Italy 26.9%. The rate in Poland is 21.2%, down from 35% a few years ago. In Eastern Europe overall the rate is 27.9%. This puts Spain at a level higher than Eastern European countries where youth unemployment has traditionally been higher. Worse, this is a result of a spike in unemployment from 17% at the height of the boom three years ago, to the currrent 43%. Alfonso Prieto, deputy secretary general of employment studies at the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, says this high rate in Spain is a result of a disproportionate share of Spanish youth employed on temporary contracts. During the boom years a large number of young workers joined a culture of temporary work, with the term "mil euristas," used for workers on 1000 euros a month. With the economy in trouble these were the first people laid off. Low skilled and immigrant workers who lost jobs are also reflected in the statistics, as Spain witnessed an influx of millions of immigrants during the boom. Still worse the government is under tremendous pressure from the EU and bond markets because its budget deficit reached 11% of GDP in 2011, and austerity measures are being adopted. Spain is spending 30 billion euros in unemployment benefits, but the money is not doing much to prepare workers for jobs in new industries or new vocations for the future. ...

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The growth in U.S. GDP was 1.7 % in 2011, yet unemployment dropped by 0.7% in the last 12 months to 8.3% by Feb. 2012. A pickup in hiring is seen in job figures. Christina Romer gives as an explanation to the rise in unemployment in 2009 to 10%, more than expected, and the drop since then, to the overreaction of companies to the financial crisis by laying off workers and freezing hiring- with hiring picking up as conditions return to normal levels. The unemployment rate as defined is also not an accurate measure of the jobs situation, as it reflects only workers who are looking for work, and many workers drop out of the jobs market when they are discouraged especially the long term unemployed. Taking into account people who have dropped out of the labor markets the unemployment rate was 11% in Nov. 2009, according to Luce in the Financial Times- in Ezra Klein, Washington Post 12/12/2011, Wonkbook: Real unemployment rate 11%. Lawrence Katz, Harvard Labor economist also cites this as one of three jobs crises in unemployment today that need to be addressed, the other two being: foreclosures and debt, and the low number of jobs added because of automated manufacturing- in Friedman, NYT, 12/10/11, The Next First 100 Days. Explanations for the low GDP growth as unemployment declines is a likely productivity slowdown. Prof. Robert Gordon of Northwestern University, sees a slowdown in productivity. Worker output for every hour worked, how productivity is measured, increased only 0.4% in 2011 and 0.9% in the last 7 quarters, and is trending downward in the longer term. A more likely explanation is that unemployment is still at higher levels but is understated in unemployment figures....

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David Reilly warns that though the U.S. Federal Reserve's stress tests of U.S. banks showed they passed- including approval for dividends and share buyback- except for Ally Financial and Citigroup, this can be deceptive. True, the Fed used 13% unemployment and sharp drop in stock market prices as conditions. The problem is with capital ratios. The Fed used a leverage ratio of 3%. It should not be forgotten that the financial crisis of 2008 was caused by excessive leverage and risk. Tested on this measure the banks fail to achieve safe levels of leverage and risk. Under the Fed's highest stress scenario Citigroup ratio was at 2.9%, Morgan Stanley's at 3.4%, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan at 3.8%- what ths means is that the leverage for these banks was at 26-29 times capital. Reilly raises the question- how is this so different than the leverage used by these banks before the crisis. The stress tests in the U.S. by the U.S. Federal Reserve are lauded for being better than the European Banking Authority's stress tests, but is this a standard by which to judge them? Before the collapse of Lehman in 2008, experts including Anil Kashyap at the University of Chicago, pointed out that for every $1 of bank losses in a deleveraging cycle bank lending goes down at banks by $10, and for investment banks at $20-$30 depending on leveraging- in David Henry and Matthew Goldstein, Business Week, July 16, 2008, How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street? Lehman's leverage ratio was between 24-31 times capital before the crisis. Worse, by saying banks are now safe compared to the situation before the crisis, is the Fed giving the green light to banks for some of the same leveraging behaviour that ocurred before the crisis?...

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The different strategies of Apple and Samsung in getting to the point where the two companies now dominate the smartphone market. Whereas Apple makes only one phone, its iPhone, Samsung's strategy is to have multiple phones in each price segment. It has five levels of Android based phones, with 2-3 models in each price segment. Samsung also benefits from doing its own maufacturing. When faced with a number of technologies Samsung's strategy is to bet on all of the technologies until one of them emerges as a winner, and then concentrate resources on that technology. It uses a similiar strategy for televisions. Apple by contrast places more emphasis on original design and profit margins over sales, gaining sales without eroding margins by being the first innovator in the market. It also has its own unique arrangement for manufacturing at lowcost with Foxconn in China that supports its high margins. Apple is secretive about its designs and promotes its brand heavily with its own retail stores. Apple also uses its innovative edge as leverage to steer profits away from carriers. Analyst estimates are that carriers such as AT&T and Verizon pay about $400 per iPhone to subsidize its cost because this is the only way to get customers into their retail stores. IDC estimates are that the smartphone market is $219 billon in 2012. Both companies are very close in volume- IDC estimates Apple shipped 93.2 million smartphones in 2011, compared to Samsung's 94 million units. Apple has market share of 23.5% in the fourth quarter 2012, up from 16% in 2010. Samsung has 22.8%, up from 9.4% in 2010. Apple and Samsung have together taken 91% of operating profits of all cellphone companies in the fourth quarter, an increase of 30% from 2011, according to Strategy Analytics....

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As Japanese prime minister Noda prepares to restart the Oi nuclear plant in June 2012, former prime minister Naoto Kan, who was premier during the Fukushima nuclear disaster, answers questions in a parliamentary inquiry. He says he realized how dangerous nuclear power can be when it got to the point where the evalcuation of Tokyo was being considered, Japan was then on "the verge of national collapse." His fears were that a number of meltdowns could together " release into the air and sea many times, no, many dozens of times, many hundreds of times the radiation released by Chernobyl." The Japanese public has focussed on the parliamentary hearings because the previous inquiry is thought to have been perfunctory, and not really examined in depth all the issues the Fukushima disaster had raised, and the general feeling is that a proper public dialogue had not taken place. In contrast in Germany the issues had been discussed openly, and the Angela Merkel government which had been receptive to nuclear power reversed its stand on nuclear power. Germany is phasing out dependence on nuclear energy. Kan pointed out that the "nuclear village," the network of nuclear power companies, bureaucrats, and researchers, had hijacked national nuclear policy and was putting Japan back on the same path. He went so far as to compare it with the situation facing Gorbachev in Russia after Chernobyl: "Gorbachev said in his memoirs that the Chernobyl accident exposed the sickness of the Soviet system. The Fukushima accident did the same for Japan." In his assessment of what happened Kan said: "It is impossible to ensure safety sufficiently to prevent the risk of a national collapse. Experiencing the accident convinced me that the best way to make nuclear plants safe is not to rely on them, but rather to get rid of them."...

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The return of the old Mubarak regime, with the bureaucracy, military and provincial loyalists supporting Mr. Shafiq as the presidential candidate. Shafiq was former commander of the Egyotian Air Force, the same branch of the military to which Mubarak belonged. The driector of the Carter Center in Egypt, Sanne Van Den Bergh, says the Egyptian military and government had imposed the most severe restrictions on independent election monitors compared to any other election it has monitored. Monitors could not stay at a polling station for more than 30 minutes, were not accredited in advance, and were not allowed to observe the totalling of votes at Cairo headquarters. Levinson describes how the old Mubarak regime loyalists and the military planned the operation. He describes how this has similiarities to what happened earlier, when the Mubarak regime under pressure from the Bush administration made openings by allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to contest elections and then clamping down to maintain control. The entire old system of the Mubarak regime, in business, the military, the bureaucracy, and in the provinces, with all loyalists owing their jobs and economic prospects to the regime, remains intact and has not changed since the democracy protests in 2011 and parliamentary elections. It has not made the transition to a new democratic process in Egyptian life, and has little to lose from making an effort to return to the old regime. With the military remaining above the constitution and run by members of the old Mubarak regime, democratic processes have fragile prospects. With the failure of the old regime to generate the economic opportunites and investments needed in agriculture and industry, the problem is how Egyptians can build an economic future, the alternative being falling further behind each year....

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Lally Weymouth of the Washington Post interviews Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak on June 20, 2012. On the negotiations of the P5+1 countries with Iran in Baghdad, Istanbul and Moscow, Barak says the Iranians are simply buying time, hoping that by being a little forthcoming they can delay giving up nuclear weapons programs capabilities and see if the situation changes with a new President in office in the U.S.. The Iranians are trying to reach a "zone of immunity," the way Pakistan and N. Korea did, and it will take a resolute determination on the part of the U.S. the Europeans, the Russians and the Chinese to prevent a nuclear Iran and nuclear proliferation. By the third meeting in Moscow it should be clear whether the Iranians are willing to give up capabilities that lead to nuclear weapons. Ayatollah Khamanei is the person in charge in Iran, but decisions are made collectively with the moderate Ayatollahs still ayatollahs, says Barak. The addition of the Khadima party to the coalition government of prime minister Netanyahu increases Israel's desire for dialogue and seeking progress on a peace with the Palestinian Authority- if not a peace arrangement then even unilateral steps towards peace by both sides. The way forward in Syria is for the U.S. to talk with the Russians about a new government. The important thing is for the removal of the Assad family, the entire Syrian state does not need to be dismantled as happened with the Baath party in Iraq. Israel continues to build a fence in the Sinai facing Egypt, as it fears infiltration during the period of civil strife in Egypt. Israel views Egypt from the standpoint of any future Egyptian government honoring its treaty committments with Israel, otherwise says Barak it is upto Egypt to decide its future government....

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The deterioration in the Irish banking crisis. An additional 13 billion euros will be needed by Irish banks to pay bad real estate debt, after this round of stress tests in March 2011, according to Ireland's Central Bank. This is on top of the 85 billion euros rescue package after collapse of the banks, and the 10 billion euros given by the EU and the IMF. Some estimates say the cost of the banking bust could reach $140 billion for a country with GDP of $241 billion. Ireland's interest payments on debt are estimated to rise to 13% of government revenues by 2012. Serious calls are being made for bondholders to share in the losses as the crisi escalates. Daniel Gros, Director of the Center of European Policy Studies, says policymakers in Europe saw the experience of Lehman Brothers and do not want to see a repeat of that experience at any cost. The weak banks in Germany and other lender countries are too politically connected in his view to be allowed to fail. German banks hold $62 billion in Irish Greek and Portuguese debt and French banks hold $26 billion. Hypo Real Estate, taken over by the German government, holds $14.5 billion of this debt. Bank assets in Europe are a larger share of the national economies in Europe than in the U.S. making the situation more intractable- In Britain over 3.5 times the economy, Ireland 2.5 times, in Netherlands 4.4 times, in France 3.25 times, in Spain 2 times and in Germany 1.5 times GDP, compared to 60% of GDP in the U.S. After the Irish government decided to guarantee the debt of its banks two years ago, Irish taxpayers are stuck with the entire cost of bad debt at the Irish banks....

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A steady decline in the price of Brent crude from $115 to $92 in the period from June to October 2014. Slow or no economic growth in Europe, and declining growth in China was the main reason. A cut in oil price by Saudi Arabia in September with lack of coordination in OPEC to control supplies when prices are declining, and increasing supplies from the U.S., provided additional basis for price declines. This price decline comes as large energy companies invested heavily in mega-projects to bring more oil supplies when prices were up to $128 by mid-2012. Consulting company EY estimate is that there are 163 such mega projects worth $1.1 trillion underway, most behind schedule and over budget. The projects were based on oil prices being over $100. Oil field development costs are increasing rapidly. Douglas Westwood, a consulting firm, estimate is that productivity of upstream capital spending has fallen by a factor of 5 since 2000, declining by 5% a year, as oilfield equipment and services demand exceeds supply. Greater technological sophistication also adds to cost such as Shell's Nobel Bully platform for deep sea drilling. See link- Noble Bully. Oil majors are now cutting spending, and some planned big projects are on hold. About $300 billion in assets may be up for sale. Shell plans to cut spending by 20% in 2014, Exxon and Chevron 5-6%. Shale oil projects in America need about $57 to be profitable with an internal rate of return of 10%, by one estimate. Yet this is an average and does not reflect differing producer costs. This estimate does not reflect the high cost producers, some of whom need closer to $110....

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The Japanese yen surged in value following the 2008 financial crisis as it was seen as a safe haven. As a result the Korean won declined by 42% against the Japanese yen. This continued till 2012. Japanese companies had to compete overseas at 80 yen to the dollar and shifted operations overseas. Now with the policy of monetary expansion of the Japanese central bank the situation is reversed in December 2014. The Korean won is up 40% against the Japanese yen since 2012. The Japanese yen is now down to 118 to the dollar in Dec. 2014. Abenomics gets a new mandate with the snap election in Dec. 2014. Aaron Back says Samsung may have gained ground in televisions and smartphones but other areas in electronics such as chips, displays and image sensors remain competitive and responsive to price. In autos Hyundai market share has declined to 4.4% by Dec. 2014 from 5.1% in 2011, according to MotorIntelligence.com. So far Japanese companies have used the currency advantage to improve profits and come up with better products. By using profits to invest in new technology and productivity Japanese companies can provide more features at the same price points to gain market share without having to cut price. After years of declining margins in electronics, autos and other markets this appears to be the current strategy. Another reason for this is that Japanese companies have already shifted production overseas, the shift being higher for Honda than for Toyota. Technological improvements from investments in R&D in Japan can be transferred to manufacturing operations overseas just as Apple is doing with smartphones manufacturing in China. The currency shift also improves Japan's position relative to American and European competitors in international markets....

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The decision of Norway's parliament to divest holdings of its $890 billion national pension fund in companies with 30% of the revenues coming from coal, is important say experts because it renews the discussion on the use of coal and its damage to health and the environment. Some endowment funds such as that at Harvard, Middlebury and Pomona College, have stated they do not see the funds as a tool for social and political changes, other investors see the moves as symbolic. At the same time the Church of England, says it will cut coal or oil sands from its $14 billion portfolio, and insurer AXA plans to cut $560 million in coal related investments from its portfolio. Norway's decision is broader than climate change, as it looks at the financial aspects as well. Svein Flatten, a member of parliament from the Conservative Party, says lawmakers are not just acting for political purposes, suggesting it could end up being a move to improve returns in the long run by reducing financial risks. The 30% threshold would cover mining companies, and the power companies with a mix of coal in their energy generation that makes them dependent on coal for 30% of their revenues. The effect of this is to nudge the shift away from coal at power companies. Bevis Longstreth, a former commissioner of the SEC under Reagan, says Norway's move is designed to shift the mixture of power generation at power companies, and in this sense is likely to be effective when combined with moves by other companies in sequence to reduce the use of coal. This process is already underway, especially where it makes a huge difference such as in China, because of the damaging effects of large dependence on coal for energy on health in China....

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As India's growth rate improves, one weak area is agriculture which is growing at about 3% a year, and contributes only 13.7% to GDP. Of huge significance is that about 600 million people depend on agriculture. Lagging development in this area leaves the nation backward as a whole. Farming practices are still backward and have not changed significantly. Agricultural markets, infrastructure, is still backward and needs improvement. Decline in the size of plots since 1970 from about 6 acres to about 3 acres today, and low productivity on farms is a problem. Farmers fear being pushed off the land and politicians look to the rural vote to preserve the status quo. Poor monsoon rains can increase problems for farmers as three fifths of farmland is still without irrigation. Agricultural markets are fragmented, so that apples from Himachal Pradesh in the north are not easily shipped to Karnataka in the south, and coconuts in the south not easily shipped to the north. State marketing boards in India called Agricultural Produce Marketing Committees (APMC's) control trade in fruit and vegetables. There are about 3000 fragmented agricultural markets in India, and markets can be fragmented within states. Laws from the 1950's to prevent hoarding are still on the books reducing incentives to invest in cold storage and warehouses, a significant problem in India leading to much waste and rotting of agricultural products. This hurts farmers because it leads to cuts in price. The distribution chain also hurts farmers with middlemen and commissioning agents taking as much as 6% in commission compared to the international level of about 0.5%. This review of the state of agriculture by the Economist says that 25 years after the first reforms opening up India's economy in 1990, agriculture as one area which touches the life of about half the population has not seen much change....

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Norris provides an insightful account into the research and thinking of Janet Yellen, the new chairwoman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. In her research work Fed chairwoman Yellen has placed importance on the long term unemployment rate and the difficulties workers unemployed for long period have in finding work. This is likely to determine Fed policy on interest rates as the unemployment rate inches closer to the Fed target of 6.5% set by Bernanke in Dec. 2012. Norris points out the emphasis Yelen has placed on this in speeches since being nominated to succeed Ben Bernanke at the Fed. In a recent speech Yellen emphasized that in the recession of the early 1980's median time unemployed people said they were unemployed was 12 weeks, which jumped to 25 weeks for about 6 months in 2010 and is at 17 weeks in the most recent jobs report. Another indicator Yellen has emphasized is labor's share of income in the nonfinancial corporate sector which remained between 66% and 61% from 1950 to early 2000's. This fell below 60% in 2005 and is at 57.1% barely budging from the 2011 figure. In papers written with George Ackerloff, Yellen has advanced the "fair-wage hypothesis," that workers do not do as good a job when wages are held down. Their research also shows its normal for workers in periods of recession to hold out against the lower salaries offered during recession periods, because these workers tend to fall behind newer workers hired with better wages later when the economy recovers. At the confirmation hearing Yellen made it clear that the Fed would do all it can to help the long term unemployed by creating a stronger job market, a job market where these workers would be drawn into work and employers provide job training as well as opportunities for advancement....

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Increasing regional tensions with a more assertive Japan and China. U.S. president Obama's so called "pivot to Asia," appears to have little impact. China has tended to look for its own security architecture in Asia that excludes the U.S. U.S. efforts to reduce tensions are being ignored by China in May-June 2014, as China asserts itself in waters that are in dispute with Vietnam. The lack of U.S. influence compares unfavorably with the situation that prevailed since 1900, when the U.S. had the most significant influence in Asian waters. It has more to do with a policy of withdrawal under the Obama administration than U.S. capabilities. The policy of withdrawal in the Middle East comes after much of the sacrifice had been made and the situation in Iraq changed, so that for a much smaller incremental effort the U.S. could have both lived up to its principles and ideals for democracy and freedom as well as win public opinion in the Arab countries of North Africa and the Middle East. This withdrawal in the Middle East has given Russia and China the wrong signal leading to more assertive stance in Europe and Asia, and creating uncertainty where little uncertainty existed about U.S. determination. Under whatever terms it is wrapped the policy of the Obama administration is one of withdrawal. It is dangerous because it will mean a more costly effort would be needed under a future administration to restore the situation which prevailed earlier- in which the U.S. has helped create a climate in which the entire region including China and Japan have prospered economically, without the region descending into a competition between Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and India. The Obama administration with its muddled policies has inadvertently created this situation....

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Spain's new monarch, Felipe, brings a background of being carefully trained for the new position say most people in Spain from experts to taxi drivers, and brings educational training to understand the complex economic and constitutional issues facing modern Spain. He studied law at the Autonomous University of Madrid, and did his graduate education at Georgetown University in international relations. One columnist and constitutional scholar, Carreras Serra, says the prince has helped bring focus in meetings with government officials, and can skillfully conduct discussions on difficult topics of economics or constitutional law. His abilities are sorely needed as Spain navigates through a period of economic hardship with high unemployment, especially among the young. Relating to young people will be key test for Felipe and the monarchy. He starts off with considerable goodwill as 61% of Spaniards polled have a favorable opinion of him. Two leftist parties in Spain which view the monarchy as unnecessary for Spain won 18% of the vote in European parliamentary elections in May 2014, with the two main parties of post war Spain, the Partido Popular and the Socialist party, polling below 50% (a similiar situation in UK and France), provided a signal for Juan Carlos's abdication at 76. Spain's modernization was made possible by putting behind divisions from the traumatic twentieth century conflicts, and continued economic progress will require the same degree of skill and renewed committment from all parts of the political spectrum in Spain. Because of liberal tendencies existing in a conservative culture and history, Spain's best years and progress depend on keeping the social and political fabric together without divisions, and the monarchy earning and reearning its trust -side by side with the main political parties and young people seeking a better future- to keep it this way through coming generations....

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The Harz labor reforms in Germany in 2003 changed the way unemployment was treated. The idea was to get the government to work more closely with private employers through several initiatives to fund jobs that did constructive work within these companies. This helped reduce structural unemployment because of the almost indefinite unemployment benefits that existed earlier, reducing it from 12.7% in 2005 to 7.1% in November 2008. In November 2009 even after a year of recesion it stands at 8.6%. Are there lessons for other countries in the German experience? THe Harz reforms directed the German Labor Agency to work closely with private employers to fund newly created jobs. One such program paid a Dutch staffing agency Randstad to teach 15,000 Germans information technology, business English an other skills. THe Labor agency funds jobs at a Daimler truck facility in Worth, near Stuttgart, where short term employees instead of being laid off work as mechanic trainees. Another initiative pays parts of the wages of workers hired from those who are jobless, so that the costs of retraining are shared by the government and the employer, making it more attractive to take a chance and go out and hire. And if you lose your job the Harz reforms made it possible to get unemployment benefits for an additional 6 months, if you went out and started a small business. Like the case of an employee who worked at a Kawasaki motorbicycle dealership, who started his own bike repair shop. There are political pressures to extend unemployment benefits as the recesssion becomes more severe. And the structural mismatch in jobs going unfilled, and the number turned out by universities is still a problem. One study by Adecco Institute, shows 29% of large German companies having trouble filling technical jobs, which is why these companies try to keep all their experienced employees....

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Barry Schwartz, a Psychology Professor at Swarthmore College, and author of Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less, points out that the 35 years of research shows that you get exactly what you pay for, but it turns out to be the opposite of what you want, and there are a lot of ways that incentive based compensation can go wrong. In theory choosing a parameter like share price and creating incentives to promote shareholder interests through higher share price as a measure of executive performance is reasonable, but it assumes that there is no manipulation of share price, or other external factors do not distort the measure of performance. In reality you get a situation like Merrill Lynch and other financial firms that gave out huge bonuses and executive pay even while bad decisions- that were later to sink the firms- were being incentivized. Schwartz points to research worldwide by Bruno Frey, Oberhozer-Gee, Uri Gneezy, James Heyman and Dan Ariely, that shows that incentives tend to remove the moral dimension from decisionmaking. Heyman's reaearch showed that when people offer passers by a token payment for help lifting a couch from a van, they are less likely to lend a hand when they are offered nothing. The question people ask themselves he says when money isn't part of the equation is very different he says: what are my responsibilities, what should I do that will fulfill these responsibilities to other people and to my country? In his view even though we put a lot of faith in incentives as a society to influence behaviour in a positive way, they actually do the reverse. Even if they work for some time, after a while some people who have fewer scruples learn ways to game the system and gradually distort the way it functions, leading to perverse results endangering all....

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The loss of some 4 million jobs is expected by experts in 2009, and Obama economic advisor Christina Romer has presented information at a meeting that shows the current downturn will be more severe than anything we experienced in the last 50 years. At that meeting on December 16, 2008, Obama met with Romer and other economic and policy advisors for 4 hours. It was decided that the target for jobs should be 3 million jobs created in 2009 and 2010. This still means a lot of the 4 million job loss will still occur in 2009, even if the infrastructure jobs estimated at $136 billion by the nation's governors get off to a fast start as they are supposedly ready to go. Money to states and local governments will reduce job losses and loss of services, and money in the form of lower payroll taxes would probably be saved to reduce debt by the public. Money to the poor to support medicaid and health care services and expanding healthcare coverage for those who lose coverage will be safety net reinforcement and support. So finding places to spend where jobs can be created quickly will be a challenge going forward and some of the $1 trillion stimulus will not go directly to job creation but as support. For the December 16 meeting Romer consulted with Martin Feldstein the senior Republican economist who said that " without action the economy will continue to decline rapidly." For a long time Martin Feldstein has been advocating strong action especially to reduce foreclosures and help stabilize housing prices. As the economy has weakened he has revised upwards what needs to be done, and his estimates are close to the lower end of the $800 billion to 1.3 trillion that is being estimated for 2 years. Lawrence Lindsay and other economists are supporting upto $1 trillion stimulus. ...

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Instead of "ring fencing" bad loans one bank at a time, which is what is being done for Bank of America and Citigroup by the government , Bair, Bernanke and others favor something like the Resolution Trust Corporation, which would contain all bad assets of banks. Bair in an interview said she would like to see them priced at what they would get in today's market, meaning that the steep discounts issue would be faced squarely. What this will need is a lot of government money to restore confidence so that investors are willing to put their private money in the banks. And Senator Schumer says he is hearing the number of $1 trillion or more. This would let banks take these bad assets off their balance sheets, like they did with the Brady bonds for bad Latin American assets and with the Resolution Trust Corporation for bad assets in the savings and loan crisis. It was the original intent of TARP but two things happened, first the pricing of these assets was in limbo, with nobody willing to say how steep the discount should be. The auction process proposed was a vague and shaky one. Second, things deteriorated so quickly that it became urgent to instead do bank recapitalizations for $250 billion. Now the same issue has to be addressed directly by another administration with control of Congress, so that the big bucks funding of $1 trillion can be possible to do. Something like a separate institution that holds all bad bank assets. And the government taking on a big part of the burden, and with it some ownership of the banks that hopefully could payback some of this $ 1 trillion....

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How bankruptcy courts can offer a solution to the foreclosure crisis or at least mitigate its effects on the economy and on people. Senator Durbin of Illinois is expected to introduce legislation to put this into effect. It was adopted as a Chapter 12 provision to save farmowners in distress in Iowa in the 1980's, and helped keep many farming families on the farm in that situation. Not all families would be helped as some will not be able to make even the reduced payments given by a bankruptcy judge. But it gives bankruptcy courts the authority to cut through all the red tape and reluctance of bankers and mortgage securities owners to take the initiative and reduce payments, and in the end may actually generate more money for lenders than foreclosure, which has high costs on several dimensions. One cost and one dimension that is not considered is the cost to the economy and to all businesses, from retail to other products, as foreclosures lead to declines in housing prices. This leads in a downward spiral to more homeowners going under water with their homes being worth less than the mortgage, and this in turn leading to foreclosures that lead to further house price declines. The decline in housing prices adds to the incentive to save and reduce spending, which leads to inventory buildup and layoffs. This is why the situation cannot be seen in isolation, and becomes an area where interests of individual parties like lenders and securities holders tend not to be maximized when they follow their personal interest. And there is no party that can take the collective interest in this case except the federal government. ...

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The head of failed bank HBOS or Halifax Bank of Scotland, which needed $17 billion of British taxpayer money, and was merged with Lloyds Bank after heavy losses, is Sir James Crosby. In a strange turn of events he ends up as a trusted advisor to Prime Minister Brown and becomes deputy chairman of the Financial Services Authority, Britain's regulatory agency. Sir James obviously knighted, obtained the appointment to FSA in 2006 when HBOS was growing rapidly, the losses came in 2008. But just as in the USA some of the people who were in the financial institutions or in regulatory agencies where alot of bad judgement or lack of necessary fiscal prudence was exercized, are still in positions that have as their principal task getting the US or Britain out of this crisis in financial institutions. In this case a House of Commons' committee investigating the banking crisis released written testimony that Sir Crosby summarily fired one of his executives Paul Moore after warning that HBOS bank was moving too fast in acquiring billions of dollars in new debt. One line in the Moore testimony is telling in its description of what happened at HBOS, as it must have in a host of other places in the US and Europe: " Sadly, no one wanted to speak up for fear of stepping out of line with the rest of the lemmings who were busy organizing themselves to run over the edge of the cliff behind the pied pper CEO's and exectuive teams that were being paid so much to play that tune and take them in that direction." End result, Crosby resigns his position before Prime Minister Brown is embarrassed and faces tumult and questions in the British House of Commons....

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Case-Shiller home price index shows 18.5 % drop year over year for December 2009, for single family homes in 20 major metropolitan areas. The Conference Board Index for consumer confidence dropped from 37.4 in January 2009 to 25 in February 2009. Of the 5000 households surveyed more 90% said they expected conditions would be the same or worse in the next 6 months. The Obama $275 billion plan for homeowners does not address the weakest cities in the market which are in places like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and much of Florida and Southern California, where prices have fallen 40% or more from their peak. This is because mortgages that are under water are not included, these are mortgages where more is owed on the house than the house is worth, and is ocurring faster in places where price declines are the steepest. One expert Martin Feldstein who is also on the Obama advisory panel has insisted since early 2008 that these homeowners under water have no rational incentive to continue making payments. What this does is to make consumers to postpone purchases like autos and hold back or cut back on all kinds of spending. In this global economy this means places like China's coastal regions which export to the US get hit hard and in turn exporters to china like Germany also get hit hard as what starts in the USA gets passed on theough the global economy from one region to another. Which also means US exports to Asian and other emerging market countries of tech goods and aircraft are in turn hit hard. As Republicans and Democrats follow their ideological leanings they cancel each other out in the debate, as Prof. Potter at Harvard an expert on economic strategy points out in a link, resulting in necessary actions not being taken and no clear direction. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Foreign demand for US manufacturing exports especially in emerging market economies such as China, India, Mexico, the Middle East and South America, will help cushion the US economy from the effects of the housing market deterioration and the credit squeeze. Some of the figures point to a vigorous demand for US exports that will sustain the US economy in the years ahead as poorer countries around the world industrialize, urbanize, build infrastructure, and improve the living standards of people in their countries. First the world is less sensitive to US slowdown. Cooper cites numbers to show that the US contributionto world growth has declined from 19% to 12%. And in the past 10 years USA growth declined from 3% to 2.6% annually but the global economy accelerated from 3.2% to 4.4%. (Statistics from IMF?) IMF in World Economic Outlook estimates global economic growth in 2008 to slow from 5.2% to 4.8%, and the US in 2008 to be 1.9% same as 2007. Excluding the US, growth in the world economy would be 5.5%. China's imports of US goods is up 25% annually over the past 5 years. The proportion of US goods going to emerging markets is up to 45% from 38% in the past 2 years. And economies of countries like India and Mexico are sustained by internal consumer demand so they are stronger than before. Another way to see this happening is the US corporate earnings from overseas being up 22% from last year, and domestic profits up only 1%. Over the past year profits from foreign sales have accounted for 80% of increase in overall profits. So foreign trade and its continued expansion will act as a stabilizing effect on the US economy and US products especially in infrastructure development and related areas will help the developing countries make major improvements to living standards and infrastructure. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The electricity grid in Africa is being strained by electricity demands of mining companies. Power outages are costing African economies as much as 2% of their GDP according to World Bank estimates. Energy shortages in South Africa are creating blackouts in South Africa and neighboring countries Botswana and Zambia and affecting the mining industry in these countries. South Africa's energy company Eskom is petitioning regulators for a hike of 50% in electricity prices to reduce demand. Shortages of electricity have increased prices of platiinum and other metals in the commodities industry. Mining in South Africa produces 7% of GDP but consumes 17% of the electricity leaving less for domestic consumption and for industry. Eskopm was late in ordering new plants not taking action till 2004. For Africa the total electricity generating capacity of 63 gigawats supplies 770 million people about what Spain generates for 40 million people. And the expression energy poor means that this shortage in urban areas means the rural poor wil have no electricity for decades to come. And in places like energy rich Port Harcourt Nigeria electricity is inconsistent or in dire shortage. An accountant at a construction firm in Dakar, Senegal has to choose between paying his child's school fees or paying for electricity, chooses to pay for electricity as prices have gone up by 88% in 3 years. And rural areas of Africa have little hope of electricity. This is another sign of how adverse effects of huge energy consumption in places like China and the wasteful consumption in the USA affect global energy prices and in turn affect the poorest in Africa. In places where the voices will never be heard. How boom times in some Asian and westen economies can lead to choices like fuel guzzling vehicles and energy wasteful plants in China that reverberate across Africa....