LyrArc Article Gist
The 2014 budget for Spain is free of the strong austerity measures, cuts in spending, and tax increases, of earlier budgets. Growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2014, after 1.3% decline in 2013. The unemployment rate is set to decline from 27% high in first quarter of 2013, to 25.9% in 2014. Savings of $800 million euros will come from changes in the pension system and civil servants face a freeze in salaries for the fourth year. The premium over German government bonds for Spain's government bonds is now less than that of government bonds of Italy. Cost of financing Spain's debt is projected to decline by 5.2% to 36.6 billion euros, according to Treasury minister Montero. The EU with the backing of the IMF has considered the high unemployment in Spain in its decision to relax deficit targets. This has given Spain an opportunity to clean up its accounts without further damage to the economy. Spain's deficit will now decline to 6.5% in 2013 from a deficit of 6.8% in 2012. The target for the deficit is set at 5.8% for 2014. Credit is still tight and consumer spending weak, major concerns for the government- in addition to the need for creating jobs- of prime minister Rajoy....

LyrArc Article Gist
Republicans may not say humans cause climate change- only 31%, but a majority of Republicans- 57%, say action is needed to control carbon emissions. The results are part of research published in journal Climatic Change, research done at the UC Santa Barbara.This is good news for future efforts to control carbon emissions. Only 20% of Republicans support a 20% quota for renewable energy, yet 74% think its good to do research on renewable energy. A paradox? No, say experts as there is a long history of controlling and regulating pollutants in the air and water since the fifties in which all parties supported the efforts. Its mostly they say about Republican identity in saying human activities don't cause global warming, when it comes to living and breathing clean air Republicans by a majority are on board everywhere including the South.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Obama first family and its many mulicultural faces from Kenyan, Indonesian, Chinese to African American and White abolitionists from Missouri. Truly a new face of the American continent. About 25% of white Americans have interracial marraiges and nearly half of all black Americans belong to a multiracial family, according to estimates made by Joshua Goldstein of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. What it does is wake one up to the reality, the changes that have already ocurred in the country which most people had not realized. With Blacks, Hispanics, Jewish people, Asian Americans, the 25% of whites in interracial marraiges, recent immigrants, white women, and white males making up this mosaic of cultures and communities that makeup America. And the geographical mix is also just as varied, with the west and the northwest and the midwest and east having a bigger share of this mosaic than the south and the mountain states. Whites in interracial marraiges tends to breakup the traditional white protestant insular demographic. On the religious side there is a breakup of the traditional white demographic with Irish Americans especially those in the east tending to move away from the traditional white protestant insular demographic because of their own particular historical and cultural narrative. The Obama story is one of tapping into these different demographics and changing faces of America at the right time, when the conservative southern demographic, represented by the Bush family, combined with related demographic groups in counties and neighborhoods around the country had lost popular support from two wars and a failing economy....

LyrArc Article Gist
Chrysler's model lineup will show a number of small cars. The Fiat 500 will be made at the plant in Toluca, Mexico. And Fiat 4 cylinder engines will probably be made at Dundee plant.

LyrArc Article Gist
Protests in 5 of Turkey's largest cities with mayors from the CHP party, Istanbul, Ankara, Bursa, Izmir following the arrest of Imamoglu, Mayor of Istanbul, just before he was being nominated by his party to run against Erdogan for president of Turkey in 2028. Ekrem Imamoglu was elected mayor of Istanbul in 2019, with 54% of the vote in a recount when Erdogan had been in power for 16 years starting in 2003. Erdogan also started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul. Erdogan became popular following mismanagement of the economy by the administration of the time. He increased growth with foreign investment in his first ten years. His popularity began to wane with tendencies for authoritarian rule. Without a strong candidate from the opposition Erdogan was elected again in 2020 with 52% of the vote. In 2024 Ekrem Imamoglu was relected a second time as Mayor of Istanbul.  In 2025 Turkey is a changed country- with countries around it Ukraine, Russia, Middle East, and the US, very different from the 2000 turn of the century period. CHP party in power in the cities is now in a position to run the country after two decades in the Opposition. As a result there is a shift in mood in the country seeking new leadership and the AKK party of Erdogan now faces a serious challenge from the Opposition CHP and Imamoglu. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The National Assessment of Education Progress, NAEP, which is a report card of educational levels in the U.S. secondary school system shows 36% of fourth graders in the U.S. are proficient in reading for 2017. For eighth graders this drops to 34% in 2017. This shows that a little over a third of fourth and eight graders are achieving proficiency in reading, a glaring sign of failure leaving about two thirds of young people behind. With declining level of reading proficiency and proliferation of social media, the bottom 25% are faring much worse than even this dismal result.

Between 2015 and 2017 there was no improvement in NAEP scores.

LyrArc Article Gist
Air pollution concerns are leading China's National Development Reform Commission to set a higher goal for cleaner energy. The NDRC plans a 52 gigawatt increase in installed capacity for green energy in 2013, an increase from 36 gigawatts in 2012. This includes 10 gigawatts for solar energy. Clean energy will take up 57% of additions to installed capacity in 2013, compared to 35% in 2010, according to Tian Miao, an energy anayst at NSBO.

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's NTT telecommunications takes a $600 million stake in NEC so that it can compete more effectively against Huawei of China in 5G technologies and for developing 6G. Huawei has 30% of the global base station business in the new technologies, NEC 1%. NEC plans are now to build this up to 20% by 2030 in this new push. Meanwhile the U.S. is limiting Huawei in 5G by imposing restrictions in manufacturing, and restricting use of American technologies by Asian 5G component manufacturers such as Taiwan Semconductor. NEC and NTT now see the opportunity to partner with other trusted countries and partners  to create a new open system of development. Japan's government has blocked Chinese vendors Huawei and ZTE from official contracts. The U.S. has already done this and is pushing allies to stay away from Chinese vendors. The UK is now reconsidering its decision to allow Huawei into its 5G network and is likely to follow the U.S. Sweden's Ericsson has 27% of the global base station market in the new technologies. The U.S. is pulling together American companies in an alliance for American companies to compete in 5 and 6G network equipment manufacturing. Many of the technologies originate in the U.S. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Concurs with Brian Wesbury op ed article in the Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2007, on the housing and subprime mortgage crisis, that the Bernanke Fed's move to prevent the system from seizing up but at the same time to let market discipline operate so that mispricing of risks does not continue, is the right calibrated action in the current situation. Whats at the heart of this crisis? Its that nobody knows where the risks lie hidden and how big these risks are, because the mortgage securities were so widely and efficiently distributed throught the global financial system. See the related article wsj, Aug 20, 2007, on the German stateowned smaller banks with large conduit operations, offbalance sheet affiliates, that invested in US mortgage securities. This has made fear so potent that banks simply do not trust each other or the financial system and do not want to lend to each other, and it all happened once a sequence of events documented in the wsj August 20, 2007 took place in the USA and Europe, that threatened the whole system with seizing up. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Virgin America launches new service from San Francisco to New York and Los Angeles. It will provide more amenities typical of Virgin and at the same time let customers do this on a budget, bringing San Francisco to New York fares to as low as $250 excl. taxes. Its well funded which helps, with $128 million, and it has launched with a $3 million ad ampaign including San Francisco's city hall in its Virgin colors.

LyrArc Article Gist
Voter sentiment changes in Italy for the Democratic party led by prime minister Letta, only a few months after the national elections. Under Letta who belongs to a younger generation of Italian leaders, the Democratic party which supports being in the EU and pro-growth policies, has staged a comeback in Italian mayoral elections for 67 cities. The party of Mr. Berlusconi lost ground, and the party of newcomer Beppe Grillo also lost ground. Voter turnout was 48.5%, after years of failed politics of the national parties in Italy. This is new reason for optimism for the future of Italy.

LyrArc Article Gist
Spain's finance minister, Elena Salgado, says the state backed Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring, will acquire direct equity stakes in the Cajas, Spain's regional banks, for upto 5 years. The Bank of Spain's preliminary estimates of the capital needs of the banking sector are below 20 billion euros, according to Salgado. The Spanish government will raise the Tier 1 capital requirements for all banks to 8% and will inject capital into lenders that do not meet the new requirements. The moves are designed to reassure investors who lack information about the true financial condition of the cajas.

LyrArc Article Gist
Losses of about 75% of production at some textile plants in Pakistan from severe electricity shortages. Demand outstrips supply by a huge margin. The Ministry of Power estimates demand at 18,0000 watts for a country of 180 million and supply is only 12,000 megawatts. There is a electricity crisis in Pakistan. The first priority of prime minister Nawaz Sharif is to get electricity production up significantly. This means textile plants cannot operate, fans can't operate in the heat of the summer months, and children cannot do homework because of lack of lighting, the whole country and people suffer from the lack of electricity.

LyrArc Article Gist
House members frustrated and angryover high unemploymet and the rescue of Wall Street that is doing little for americans who are losing jobs and shrinking small business, traded insults with Secretary Geithner and some called for hime to quit. A measure calling for for Congression Government Accountability Office to conduct audits of the Fed that includes interest rates and lending to individual banks that was proposed by Ron Paul was passed 43-26 by the House Financial Services Committee. At one point a Hopuse Republican told Geithner "the public has lost all confidence in your ability to do the job." And Geithner shot back with "what I can't take responsibility for is the legacy of crises you've bequeathed this country." Rep. Fazio (Dem. Oregon) was one of the voices calling for Geithner's resignation and said in an interview that Mr. Geithner is too close to Wall Street: "Quite frankly, all the gamblig on Wall Street is doing nothing to put people back to work in America and rebuild our economy." Geithner is coming in for criticism for the rescue of AIG that indirectly rescued Goldman Sachs. Congressman Ron Paul is the author of a best selling book "End the Fed." Mr Paul says his amendment would not hinder the Fed pusuing an independent monetary policy. What he is concerned about is that "ther's plenty of political influence goig on now- presidential politics, influence by Goldman Sachs and the banking industry, and its all done in secret." See the links to Geithner and contacts with the banking industry. It was in 1978 that a law was passed shielding the Fed from Congressional auditors reviewing the Fed's monetary policy operations, loans to foreign governmets and direct lending to banks. The Fed isn't disclosig interest rate deliberations and only agreed to do this with a5 year lag in the 1990's and Ron Paul/s proposal would reduce this time lag to 6 months for the GAO access to this information....

LyrArc Article Gist
Clarence Cammers, 64, one of Paul Ryan's constituents back home in Wisconsin, has a question for Ryan at one of his townhall meetings. Clarence is worried about what would happen to his son Tim, 32, if Medicare cuts went through and his son had to use vouchers for getting health insurance. Ryan's district includes Racine withe high unemployment, and Janesville which was devastated by the closing of the General Motors plant in 2010. Most of the people there are conservative, believe in fiscal responsibility and a balanced budget, but they are also older, working class people. Some of them like Clarence are dependent on their Social Security check to get by from month to month and are not sure they can cope with the kinds of cuts Ryan is proposing. In this story Clarence and Tim discuss the meeting and come to the conclusion that Tim will lose either way- with taxes going up or Tim not getting the retirement that he should be getting. Clarence a life long saver decides he will cut back on his expenses and save $588 from his $1912 monthly social security check for Tim. Tim has severe attention deficit disorder and works for $10 an hour in food prep at a resort....

LyrArc Article Gist
Jonathan Cheng of the WSJ reports from Seoul that the sense of alarm at the escalating rhetoric between the U.S. president and North Korea seen elsewhere is missing in the South Korean capital. A city of 10 million only 45 minutes from the border with North Korea is within artillery range from the North. There is a sense that North Korea would not attack the South because of long ties of culture and ethnicity. The new government of Mr. Moon was elected with its plan to improve relations with North Korea that had deteriorated under the previous government of Mrs. Park. An effort is made by Rex Tillerson, the U.S. Secretary of State to tamp down tensions from the rhetoric. South Korean officials say recent experience shows the Trump administration is capable of making sound policy even with Mr. Trump's tendency to tweet strong comments. The South Korean government urged the media to present the situation without aggravating tensions. In fact the popular online news portal Naver in South Korea did not show the escalation in its top ten trending topics. An earlier report in the NYT shows the use of underground bomb shelters in drills is ignored by many South Koreans. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
On October 30, Sheila Bair heading the FDIC, the main advocate for reducing foreclosures by reducing the mortgage payments is in discussions with Treasury officials for a plan whose details are still being worked out. A key part of it is for the government to assume half of the losses on home loans that are incurred if mortgage companies agree to lower monthly payments for at least 5 years. The cost to the government is about $50 billion that would come from the $700 billion bailout fund. Right now loan companies are reluctant to reduce monthly payments because homeowners might defaul again or the owners of mortgage securities might file law suits. The funds would go to shoulder half of any future losses on default. For example if under a loan modification program 40% redefault and losses on loans are 55%, and $500 billion in loans are modified under the program, the total losses government would bear are $55 billion. This scenario is possible in a deep and prolonged housing and economic slump. This would be a gradual program if mortgage companies or companies with home loans or servicers of loans have to decide if they want to take advantage of this program, and time is critical as the foreclosures are accelerating and thisputs downward pressure on prices....

LyrArc Article Gist
Any Asian conflict involving China would in a few months destroy Apple's value, CEO's would change quickly, and Apple policies change to shift entire production to India and the US in a rapid shift. Tim Cook would be seen as having gambled against America's interests, unresponsive and failing after repeated warnings.  Apple's goal of sourcing from India by 2027 a mere 26% of its iphones, means that a decade after USTR Lighthizer and DJT started the task of reshoring manufacturing to US and allies in 2016, the No. 1 outshoring company would still be making 75% of its dollar value iphones in China. A degree of overconcentration that would make no sense considering that Apple's 75% of manufacturing would be entirely at risk in 2027 after repeated warnings and inaction. The only option for Tim Cook in 2025 is to come up with new goals of shifting a minimum of 50-60% of its dollar value product manufacturing for iphones to India by 2027. . Tim Cook as Apple CEO has done little to prevent the overconcentration of manufacturing in China since 2016. About 10 years after DJT was elected to bring manufacturing back to India or close allies the simple idea of diversification was not implemented. Why? Having set up this system starting in 1998, a system that did not exist before that tiem when Steve Jobs hired Tim Cook with a winning formula to Make in China, a country just emerging from its Communist phase of failed state economy. By 2008 in 10 years the infrastructure was built in a backward largely agricultural economy that was rapidly modernizing under a market economy with state run capitalism under the Communist Party experiment. The Bush Obama 16 years were ones with America not responding to the challenge posed by this new system which could create huge surges in production capacity with focus on key technologies and flood markets. The next decade after 1998-2008 was one of rapid growth of this experiment which combined with design and engineering in the US generated few jobs in manufacturng in the US, but huge profits with huge margins fro a low cost base with a high image and technology innovation product. Lighthizer, Navarro, Jamieson had already sounded the alarm for American manufacturing and loss of jobs in 2016.  America's deindustrialization was becoming a bigger challenge by 2020 so that president Biden continued the policy of reindustrializing. In 2025 China 2025 Plan that was a warning in 2016 is already a reality with China flooding the world in solar panels, and ready to flood the markets overseas with electric cars. Apple may only get a reprieve, this exemption is not the same as the last one. National security is an issue, key technologies need to be protected. There is only one more opportunity to rebuild American manufacturing and keep promises.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The prospects for a coalition government of the PD of Luigi Bersani and the parties supporting outgoing prime minister Mario Monti. This is the best outcome for the eurozone and for lowering Italy's borrowing costs on debt.

LyrArc Article Gist
The US trade deficit at about $10 billion in 1995 reached a high of about $65 billion by 2007. Now the figures are expected by economists to drop in March from $62 billion to $61 billion as exports increase and the US imports less. The trade deficit is finally moving in the other direction. But the strength of this trend depends a lot on how strong the rest of the world economy remains to draw in US exports. It also depends on the dollar, and the dollar strengthened by about 4% against the euro in the first two weeks of May.

LyrArc Article Gist
Gretchen Morgenson sees systemic risk looking ahead beyond 2013 in the $4.6 trillion repurchase obligations market or repo market. Problems in the repo market caused the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the financial crisis of 2008. Bernanke, Dudley, Bair and other finance officials have referred to the risk in the repo market which have not been reduced since the 2008 financial crisis. In the repo market money market mutual funds provide short term funding to banks accepting collateral such as mortgage securities. These are overnight loans made to banks and other financial institutions based entirely on trust. During normal functioning the trades are rolled over. The risk is that the trust disappears in a few days as happened for Bear Stearns and Lehman and the firms not able to obtain this short term financing. This is a very unstable form of financing and Lehman depended on it because of the low cost and not having to set aside capital for the trades. Basel III rules require that banks set aside capital against the assets they finance inthe repo markets, and a recent JP Morgan report says the 8 largest banks would need to raise $28-$34 billon in capital for their repo business....