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Peter Coy, Economics editor of Business Week, on the risks of inflation.
06/11/2009
Krugman responded to Laffer's oped in WSJ with an op-ed of his own in the NYT suggesting that Bernanke's Fed should stay the course. In this article Peter Coy, aveteran reporter and analyst of BW, looks at the situation and the facts. Demand is so weak in the economy, that the Fed's expansion of the money supply only helps make up for this and still falls short. The economy will be fragile for some time to come so reversing course is simply dangerous. In the video that goes with this he tells Mandel that Bernanke is right and should stay the course.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Why the Fed Isn't Igniting InflationBusinessWeek 06/18/2009
Discussion between Goolsbee who favored lettting Chrysler go out of business and Summers who was concerned about the loss of jobs.
06/08/2009
Efforts by Jim Press and Chrysler to gain credibility with the government about its viability, by pushing slaes allottments to dealers. Jim Press did this even as inventory remained unsold on dealer lots. In the White House the debate between advisors was about a decision on Chrysler's future.
Linked Articles
Dealers Say They Were Led Astray in Chrysler's Final Days
Washington Post 06/16/2009
Obama’s Economic Circle Keeps Tensions SimmeringNew York Times 06/08/2009
Even when the recovery occurs and inventories get replaced gorwth will be slow, as deleveraging process takes many years.
05/28/2009
Mr. Mecksworth, chief economist at MAPI says even when arecovery happens it will mean slow growth as companies will be saving money and paying off debt for many years to come.
Linked Articles
Once a Key to Recovery, Detroit Adds to Pain
New York Times 06/01/2009
Sharper Drop Is Forecast for Factory ProductionWall Street Journal 05/28/2009
S. Korea's second household debt binge in the 15 years since the 1997 financial crisis
05/18/2009
The first period of rising household debt ocurred with the credit card boom when the government promoted consumer spending as a way to stimulate the economy. By 2003 this became a serous problem and the government rescued a credit card issuer in 2003. Household debt is again a major problem in 2012 with the increasing number of companies in financial lending that are not regulated.
Linked Articles
Notes From Another Credit Card Crisis
New York Times 05/18/2009
S. Korea tries to curb mounting debt and avert a crisis - The Washington PostWashington Post 07/09/2012
The smaller stimulus and selective investments in 2012-2014 in China and how this affects construction and heavy equipment manufacturers
04/30/2009
The impact on Caterpillar, Volvo AB, Komatsu, John Deere, Cummins and domestic Chinese manufacturers of the smaller stimulus and selective investments in China in the years ahead. Manufacturers are exporting from China during this period of slowing sales in China.
Linked Articles
China Bets Sour for Heavy Equipment Firms
Wall Street Journal 08/16/2012
China's Stimulus Spurs U.S. BusinessWall Street Journal 04/30/2009
Krugman and the editors of NYT see the G-20 coming out short in addressing the crisis.
04/03/2009
The Europeans failed top support the USA in the push for strong stimulus and global regulatory reform is still uncertain. About $1.1 trillion for supporting trade and the IMF, with IMF asked to promote social help in emerging countries in addition to fixing finances.
Linked Articles
New York Times 04/03/2009
The Economic SummitNew York Times 04/03/2009
Geithner's Paulsonlike plan for toxic assets and doubts whether it can work.
03/23/2009
Krugman and Eavis have doubts about the new Geithner plan as it looks so much like his predecessor Paulson's failed efforts to do much about toxic assets. Krugman sees things only getting worse as 600,000 jobs are being lost every month, as Geithner, Congress and the public fail to push for the tough solutions including government taking over failed banks to deal with tosic assets without having to sort out pricing in advance.
Linked Articles
Geithner's Gamble Needs Speculators
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2009
Financial Policy DespairNew York Times 03/23/2009
The Money multiplier is broken and the Fed's infusions are ending up in bank reserves.
03/20/2009
Banks have $679 billion in reserves, says Gongloff, and this matches the $653 billion that the Fed added to the money supply in this period. With the money multiplier broken the money is simply adding to the buildup of reserves at the banks.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Best Check on Inflation: Broken BanksWall Street Journal 03/20/2009
The administration's idea that somehow the bad asset problem can be solved by wishful thinking.
03/06/2009
Can a bad asset at abank really be disposed off through private investors purchases with the help of government money? Under the current circumstances who will decide the value of an asset, and would banks be willing to sell them at 40 cents when they see them worth 50 cents on the dollar?
Linked Articles
Economists Seek Breakup of Big Banks
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2009
The Big DitherNew York Times 03/06/2009
Bonuses, executive compensation and performance in the UK, public outcry.
01/20/2009
The executive compensation and bonus situation in the UK. RBS and othe banks and the public outcry. As RBS shares drop to 12 pence or less than the price of a candy bar, loss for 2008 is 28 billion pounds, and the British government comes up with $20 billion pounds of government money for RBS and takes 70% ownership, reports in the Sunday Telegraph suggest executives plant to handout $1 billion in bonuses. How?
Linked Articles
U.K. Boosts Its Bailout As Bank Losses Rise
Wall Street Journal 01/20/2009
British Official Plans a Review of Bonuses After OutcryNew York Times 02/09/2009
An Alternate View of U.S., and EU relations with Russia from Gates and German public opinion
01/05/2009
A look back at former Defense Secretary Gates views about Russia in the larger context of the postwar years and what it is today, including Georgia (and Crimea) and other issues. A similiar perspective fom the German side as seen by former chancellor Kohl, Merkel, Schroeder, and Ischinger, going back to the days of Wily Brandt. Brandt was Mayor of West Berlin in the period of enormous tensions between the Soviets and the Federal Republic during the sixties and later initiated the policy of constructive engagement.
Linked Articles
Pentagon Chief Sees Opportunities In Russia and the War on Terrorism
Washington Post 01/05/2009
Germany's Angela Merkel Treads Softly With Russia's Putin On UkraineWall Street Journal 04/08/2014
With no safey net Chinese savings rate is high and the export model is entrenched pushing Chinese savings into financing American consumption.
11/26/2008
With the collapse of export markets in the U.S., China and the U.S. are now having to face up to the problems inherent in American dependence on Chinese products and Chinese savings to finance excessive consumption, and Chinese dependence on American export markets.
Linked Articles
Chinese Savings Helped Inflate American Bubble
New York Times 12/26/2008
Global Economy: No Help from China's ConsumersBusinessWeek 11/26/2008
GM to accelerate factory closings to save money as it has no access to credit.
10/14/2008
With credit markets frozen as a result of the global financial crisis in late Sept and early October, GM has no access to credit markets. GM is now accelerating closure of plants to meet the new situation.
Linked Articles
Detroit Free Press 10/14/2008
Howes: One of Big 3 may not surviveDetroit News 10/14/2008
Marchionne gets high marks for the transformation of Chrysler.
06/11/2009
After being run first by Daimler, then by Cerberus private equity, Chrysler has gone through a rough period. Fiat's Marchionne has helped transform Chrysler and given it a viable future.
Linked Articles
CEO Marchionne offers turnaround experience.
Detroit Free Press 06/11/2009
Marchionne is Steady Behind the WheelDetroit News 04/21/2011
As the government sells $5 trillion in new debt by one estimate, the problem of an estimated $ 1 trillion in troubled assets on the banks books is being put off for another day.
06/04/2009
The FDIC's Legacy Loans Program's $1 billion pilot program attracts no interest. The Public Private Partnership Program of Secretary Geithner, like Secretary Paulson's TARP program before Geithner, is also unlikely to attract much interest as banks are not willing to take the prices that would require them to show large losses on their books. But this means that these problems are postponed for another day.
Linked Articles
Plan to Help Banks Clear Their Books Is Halted
New York Times 06/04/2009
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World GrowthNew York Times 06/04/2009
Looking at it from Benjamin Graham's perspective this sure is overoptimism, prices of share overestended and overpriced.
05/23/2009
A reminder to take Benjamin Graham's perspective and view things from the "the standpoint of eternity rather than day to day."
Linked Articles
If You Think Worst Is Over, Take Benjamin Graham's Advice
Wall Street Journal 05/23/2009
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World GrowthNew York Times 06/04/2009
The youth vote in India's 2014 and 2009 parliamentary elections
05/02/2009
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/02/2009
Hopes of a Generation Ride on Indian VoteNew York Times 05/15/2014
The NYT editorial questions the wisdom of letting banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs repay government money.
04/26/2009
The heavy lobbying by the banks may skew government decisionmaking, says the NYT, and lead to poor decisions. Banks still face losses in commercial real estate, and the higher unemployment and its effect on the economy could adversely affect their balance sheets.
Linked Articles
New York Times 04/26/2009
Payback TimeNew York Times 06/11/2009
Geithner's Plan for Toxic Assets
03/23/2009
Experts are doubtful Geithner's plan of March 23, 2009 for toxic assets will work. Its similiar to plans previously announced by Paulson in the Bush administration. Views of Krugman, Eavis and Reinhart. If lack of confidence and lack of liquidity were the only problems they say, government money as incentives might work, but the problem is more basic and structural. These mortgage securities are from a time of easy money, now investors are shy of risks and would discount them even more as a safety factor, and banks would not want to sell them at that price. Are stress tests and nationalization of failed banks around the corner?
Linked Articles
Why Congress Will Kill the Bank Rescue
Wall Street Journal 03/24/2009
Geithner's Gamble Needs SpeculatorsWall Street Journal 03/23/2009
The Rosenfeld-Krugman solution for clean banks and new lending in the economy.
03/23/2009
Krugman and Rosenfeld, in no uncertain terms, say the only solution is for government to seize insolvent banks and create clean banks, using its existing authority and government money. Rosenfeld outlines his solution which puts banks back in private hands quickly or at the earliest possible moment.
Linked Articles
New York Times 04/06/2009
Financial Policy DespairNew York Times 03/23/2009
As capital markets shun small biotech startups large drug companies raise money for acquisitios and mergers.
03/16/2009
Drug companies have $155 billion they plan to use for mergers and acquisitions and are tapping the bond markets for funds. Meantime small biotech startups are running short of cash in large numbers. Will this squeeze innovation and new products as startups wither and the mergers run into problems?
Linked Articles
Drug Firms Bet Big on High-Risk Deals
Wall Street Journal 03/17/2009
Cash Dries Up for Biotech Drug FirmsWall Street Journal 03/16/2009
Britain's RBS Bank and the incredulous- huge losses and large bonuses in the "Hard Times" of the 2008 financial crisis and again in 2014
02/09/2009
Linked Articles
In U.K., Getting Tough With Nationalized Banks
Wall Street Journal 02/09/2009
Royal Bank of Scotland to Slash Costs as Losses DeepenWall Street Journal 02/28/2014
Are the old faces that got the USA and Europe into this financial crisis, now the new faces trying to fix it?
01/15/2009
Schapiro and Khuzami, the new faces at the SEC as chief and enforcement director, are the old faces at FINRA which took ahands off view of self regulation of the financial industry and the old faces at Deuteche BAnk as inhouse lawyer. Sir James Crosby, the head of HBOS bank in the UK which needed $17 billion f government money in 2008, was made Deputy chairman of the Financial Services Authority in 2006, Britain's main regulator. He reisgned hours before a stormy session in the House of Commons which embarrassed Prime Minister Brown after some revelations about Crosby,s role in the mess.
Linked Articles
Obama's Pick to Head SEC Has Record Of Being a Regulator With a Light Touch
Wall Street Journal 01/15/2009
British Regulator Quits as Accusations Mount in Banking CrisisNew York Times 02/12/2009
Money managers Grantham, Rodriguez and Scheiff fears about the economy and IMF Chief Economist Rajan's concern.
01/02/2009
Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago, told the 2005 annual Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers economists and finance professionals, that he thought the world had become much riskier with the changes in financial markets in the 18 year Greenspan tenure. He was received rather coldly by others, including former Treasury Secretary Summers. Concerns expressed by Grantham, Rodriguez and Scheiff about these and other problems became louder by the time of the Rajan paper at Jackson Hole.
Linked Articles
Mr. Rajan Was Unpopular (But Prescient) at Greenspan Party
Wall Street Journal 01/02/2009
The Doomsayers Who Got It RightWall Street Journal 01/02/2009
In the past decade China's consumption as percentage of GDP drops 10% to 37%, America's rise to 96%.
11/26/2008
This leads to the global imbalance in savings that London B-School's Prof. Portes complains about. Cross border flows fro, Asia to the West reach 3% of global GDP, pumping extra money into the US banking system, and the European banking system leading to bad lending and a consumption binge. The reluctance of China and the U.S. to change the staus quo till things simply collapsed.
Linked Articles
Imbalance in Nations' Savings Clouds Forecasts for Recovery
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2009
Global Economy: No Help from China's ConsumersBusinessWeek 11/26/2008
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